If this game stays true to vision I think it will have a large market of gamers that currently don't play mmos or are playing some only cause they can't find a virtual world instead of a psuedo lobby game.
What I expect is that they'll add a lot of "convenience" stuff into the game which any 1 of them would be a great addition but the whole ends up killing the feeling of a virtual world. I think its an easy trap to fall into. I really hope I'm wrong though cause Pantheon is one of the few games I could see myself playing for a long time if it delivers.
drivendawn said:
I am sure you disagree though and thats why I say will see.
Of course I disagree.
There are 3 fundamental problems with KS:
1) KS platform propose an idea only.
Having an idea and implementing that idea are 2 largely different things where the latter is actually very difficult.
2) KS does not propose a business plan.
You like it or not, making games is a business. To be able to release a game and keep your business running, you need solid business plan and good management.
3) KS money are donations.
This means developers are not liable for money collected and for what they are doing - they are getting paid regardless. Need to say more?
With all said above, spending money on KS means that:
You are giving money to someone who does not even bother to demonstrate their competence to release promised game or release at all and even if released, it will most certainly be nothing near you imagine it would be or how it was promoted but that all does not matter since said someone does not have to care whether you like what they released if at all, they already got your money regardless.
Thunder073 said:
The evidence of the demand is all of the threads! We are craving for this style of game! This is the only game on my horizon.
Sure, it is an evidence how small the demand is...heck, it is not even really an evidence since there is no game yet...
So in other words, you asked a question that by your world view would not be possible to answer. Any answer is "not even real" because nothing can be proven until release. Have I got that right? So then there is no way for there to be demand until there is a game and without demand there would be no game and.... around and around.
Like most of the "believers" in this thread, I also "believe" that there's an audience for this kind of game design. That belief is based on the fact that an unknown % of the total gamer population will like it, because the "classic MMO's" did have paying players.
However, unlike most of my fellow believers, I'm not convinced that that audience is big enough (in the current market) to sustain a quality MMORPG.
Let me pose a 'hypothetical' scenario. We know that there were 3,000-4,000 backers to the kick starter campaign. Plus a lot of extra people that have been directly interested in this project, but remain non-contributors. Let's be generous and call that number another 3,000-4,000 people. Then, when the launch occurs, a live product may attract another 15,000 - 20,000 from the (free) advertising they have gotten from this site and others. That's roughly seven times the base number of known people.
Being generous with rounding, could Pantheon survive (financially) with a market that may be less than 30,000 people as a peak? The population base that VR have repeatedly claimed they are aiming for is 50,000. If the number is in the 30,000 range, what is the backup plan to entice those extra 20,000 customers to their game? Advertising? That's an up-front expense with a hope to increase future revenues. Do they expect to drop customer support (a healthy on-going expense) or forget to fix bugs (immediate support) or push expansions (long-term support) into the far distant future to shrink the monthly budget to match the less-than-expected population? Or do they intend to implement a higher than the industry normal rate? (50,000 people at $15 / month is a revenue stream of $750,000 / month. With only 30,000 people that same revenue stream requires a price of $25 a month -- that's only 5,000 people from becoming a $30 / month cost - when does the cost become cost prohibitive?).
Don't want to speculate about hypothetical situations? Fine. My estimations aren't in the ballpark? Fine. Where are the people who are going to make up this mysterious player base currently? What games are they playing? Why do you feel Pantheon will attract these players from whatever else they are doing?
Sure, it's easy to come on a forum and declare 'loads of people want this kind of game', but it's incredibly difficult to translate that 'loads of people' into paying customers. Mathematically, there are a finite number of people who will play this game, it's just that number is an indefinite number until the counting has ended.
For a company that is aiming for 50,000 players, a shortfall in their estimations could be huge hurdle for their success, and subsequently, Pantheon's.
Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.
drivendawn said:
Trusting KS or how they deal with your money has nothing to do with the the fact that it is evidence people want an old school game like this.
It has everything to do with it.
Like I pointed out, idea and actual game are two vastly different things.
It is very easy to collect money based on promises but much harder on real product.
svann said:
So in other words, you asked a question that by your world view would not be possible to answer
Not at all. I did described how demand is measured - ratio of produced and sold products, and by that measure, there is no evidence of demand for game like Pantheon.
svann said:
So in other words, you asked a question that by your world view would not be possible to answer
Not at all. I did described how demand is measured - ratio of produced and sold products, and by that measure, there is no evidence of demand for game like Pantheon.
Lol, sorry, but you're saying because they are not selling the game it therefore has no demand? Ignoring anything about pantheon, you really think there is no demand for any product that is not already produced and being sold?
Xyire said:
Lol, sorry, but you're saying because they are not selling the game it therefore has no demand? Ignoring anything about pantheon, you really think there is no demand for any product that is not already produced and being sold?
I doubt you think that.
Um...I am not sure what about my reply isn't clear to you, can you be more specific?
Xyire said:
Lol, sorry, but you're saying because they are not selling the game it therefore has no demand? Ignoring anything about pantheon, you really think there is no demand for any product that is not already produced and being sold?
I doubt you think that.
Um...I am not sure what about my reply isn't clear to you, can you be more specific?
Alrighty: "demand is measured - ratio of produced and sold products" That means to have demand, there must be produced and sold products. Is this what you meant?
Gdemami. doesn't understand supply/demand. He believes products must currently exist in the market in order for there to be demand. Under his belief system new items would never enter the market.
He doesn't get the supply part. Pantheon will attempt to meet the demand of the niche of challenging social MMO gameplay which currently in the MMO market has a supply (0).
So in his convoluted view since there is no supply there can't be demand.
Where people like me believe the demand is there, but can't be proven because the supply doesn't exist. Whether I'm wrong or not we'll see - but we won't know till release.
You could make guesstimates based on factors like Facebook and say since they have 13000+ likes then it equates to at least 13000 subscriptions (yes I know likes can be manipulated).
Xyire said:
Alrighty: "demand is measured - ratio of produced and sold products" That means to have demand, there must be produced and sold products. Is this what you meant?
To measure a demand, there must be produced and sold products.
Like 4th time people twisting what I am saying... (hey look! poster above does it again...)
To measure SUPPLY there must be produced products, not sold, just produced. Again, thats SUPPLY. not DEMAND. Demand is simply the desire for a product. Whether that product has been produced or not is irrelevant.
If there is, for example, a drought that kills off 99% of the world's corn plants. The DEMAND for corn doesn't fucking dissapear, the SUPPLY does.
"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."
There is no twisting of words - you obviously have never been an entrepreneur. If you think that those in business just blindly create new products without having a gauge of demand prior to creating the product, there's no use of explaining further.
svann said:
So in other words, you asked a question that by your world view would not be possible to answer
Not at all. I did described how demand is measured - ratio of produced and sold products, and by that measure, there is no evidence of demand for game like Pantheon.
You asked for evidence of demand, and then when you got an answer you didnt like you re-defined demand in such a way that there could be no evidence of demand for a game not yet released.
svann said:
You asked for evidence of demand, and then when you got an answer you didnt like you re-defined demand in such a way that there could be no evidence of demand for a game not yet released.
Not really true.
Like I said before, you can look at similar products, products with similar features and attributes.
You can only measure what you have evidence of - how people spend their money on things that already exist.
svann said:
You asked for evidence of demand, and then when you got an answer you didnt like you re-defined demand in such a way that there could be no evidence of demand for a game not yet released.
Not really true.
Like I said before, you can look at similar products, products with similar features and attributes.
You can only measure what you have evidence of - how people spend their money on things that already exist.
You are wrong.
They could measure the interest in an idea and then produce a new product based on the interest in the idea.
"You CAN'T buy ships for RL money." - MaxBacon
"classification of games into MMOs is not by rational reasoning" - nariusseldon
Raidan_EQ said:
Is it impossible to imagine that players would want to experience a new game with gameplay similar to EQ with new lore/content etc.?
It is not that it is impossible, just the number is too small.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see who is better at foretelling. I'm of the mind that the game will garner enough interest to be profitable if not a blockbuster. That's good enough to keep the game running and me having fun playing it. Neither the developer nor us fans have any delusions of grandeur, just a central belief there is a sizeable audience for a game like this and that is good enough for us.
drivendawn said:
Hard to say when there isn't even a semi modern group oriented MMO like EQ or FFXI out there to see if there would be a good audience for it.
It isn't hard to say at all, the answer is: No.
That is why there are no "semi modern group oriented MMO like EQ or FFXI out there" in the first place.
Where is the data to back up your claim? Frankly, no one knows one way or the other if a group oriented game would make it in today's market since no one has tried in the last decade. I'm glad Brad is willing to try.
Lol @ 10-50k. Discussions of the desire for new EQ has been one of the mainstays and most reoccuring topics on this site since its inception.
Another thread to add to my list of threads to bump post launch.
Yes, and we all know how the vocal minority on MMORPG.com represents hundreds of thousands of players
You're setting yourself up for a big disappointment.
That said, I'm looking forward to trying Pantheon out - and if it can really reach 50K players sustained, that should be enough for some modest upgrades.
The 250,000 people that bought the last entry in this "very small" niche seem to disagree with you. To note, that was a quarter of a million people who bought a game that was known to be broken and unfinished prior to launch and released simultaneously with WoW's The Burning Crusade.
Let this knowledge season you with rationality and intellectual honesty in your future posts on this topic.
Are you kidding me?
I'm "intellectually dishonest" because I'm pointing out that your fantasy isn't necessarily the fantasy of everyone else?
1. That was 10 years ago. I don't know why you keep missing this, but things have happened in the MMO market segment in the past 10 years. Games have changed - and while you don't think that has affected the players - it has.
2. There's a HUGE difference between buying a game and sticking with it. I just said it might reach those numbers at launch - even though I highly doubt it.
We're talking about 50K players SUSTAINED - not copies sold.
It's not rocket science.
It's not science at all when there is no data or empirical evidence to prove your claim. Short of doing an extensive survey of the MMORPG gaming population, we won't find out till someone tries.
Why do you care? You both obviously feel this game will fail and dot seem to care for it in general. Your arguments are nonsense at worst and ignorant if Im kind. But you know what I dont really care why you think the way you think. But what does bother me is why you care what I and others think. And even more so to such a high degree. How can you be this passionate about something you dont care about or think will fail. If it were me Id definitely find a better use of my time. I mean I get the whole internet is anonymous thing, but there are a lot of games I dislike but would never waste my time on it for pages???
I am expecting a focussed niche product that serves one specific sub-segment. And I don't mean this as a negative thing.
Will be interesting to see how sustainable games targeting this segment will be, especially after all the banter around here regarding these types of games. Many people will have to eat their hats, no matter which way it pans out Will stock up on popcorn once the first wave of these games starts releasing.
Personally I can enjoy both oldschool and newer games and wish every game luck. The more the merrier.
I'm looking to be afraid .........U.O. I used to zig out of town and hide in the woods to insure I wasn't being followed. When I chopped wood, I would always be looking for bad guys.........EQ....the early EQ was dangerous and if you died it hurt. I'm not saying make it so hard that you won't explore, but I want to do so carefully, knowing it will set me back if I die. Make it too easy it's no longer fun...for me at least. They left this even in later EQ because they were losing money to those that didn't want it hard I assume. I understand that, but wish we could find one that will fit those of us that want to feel that apprehension when we delve into the unknown. I hope this is the one
Comments
What I expect is that they'll add a lot of "convenience" stuff into the game which any 1 of them would be a great addition but the whole ends up killing the feeling of a virtual world. I think its an easy trap to fall into. I really hope I'm wrong though cause Pantheon is one of the few games I could see myself playing for a long time if it delivers.
There are 3 fundamental problems with KS:
1) KS platform propose an idea only. Having an idea and implementing that idea are 2 largely different things where the latter is actually very difficult.
2) KS does not propose a business plan. You like it or not, making games is a business. To be able to release a game and keep your business running, you need solid business plan and good management.
3) KS money are donations. This means developers are not liable for money collected and for what they are doing - they are getting paid regardless. Need to say more?
With all said above, spending money on KS means that:
You are giving money to someone who does not even bother to demonstrate their competence to release promised game or release at all and even if released, it will most certainly be nothing near you imagine it would be or how it was promoted but that all does not matter since said someone does not have to care whether you like what they released if at all, they already got your money regardless.
Good deal you say.....?
"This may hurt a little, but it's something you'll get used to. Relax....."
However, unlike most of my fellow believers, I'm not convinced that that audience is big enough (in the current market) to sustain a quality MMORPG.
But I'm hoping...
Being generous with rounding, could Pantheon survive (financially) with a market that may be less than 30,000 people as a peak? The population base that VR have repeatedly claimed they are aiming for is 50,000. If the number is in the 30,000 range, what is the backup plan to entice those extra 20,000 customers to their game? Advertising? That's an up-front expense with a hope to increase future revenues. Do they expect to drop customer support (a healthy on-going expense) or forget to fix bugs (immediate support) or push expansions (long-term support) into the far distant future to shrink the monthly budget to match the less-than-expected population? Or do they intend to implement a higher than the industry normal rate? (50,000 people at $15 / month is a revenue stream of $750,000 / month. With only 30,000 people that same revenue stream requires a price of $25 a month -- that's only 5,000 people from becoming a $30 / month cost - when does the cost become cost prohibitive?).
Don't want to speculate about hypothetical situations? Fine. My estimations aren't in the ballpark? Fine. Where are the people who are going to make up this mysterious player base currently? What games are they playing? Why do you feel Pantheon will attract these players from whatever else they are doing?
Sure, it's easy to come on a forum and declare 'loads of people want this kind of game', but it's incredibly difficult to translate that 'loads of people' into paying customers. Mathematically, there are a finite number of people who will play this game, it's just that number is an indefinite number until the counting has ended.
For a company that is aiming for 50,000 players, a shortfall in their estimations could be huge hurdle for their success, and subsequently, Pantheon's.
Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.
Like I pointed out, idea and actual game are two vastly different things. It is very easy to collect money based on promises but much harder on real product.
I doubt you think that.
He doesn't get the supply part. Pantheon will attempt to meet the demand of the niche of challenging social MMO gameplay which currently in the MMO market has a supply (0).
So in his convoluted view since there is no supply there can't be demand.
Where people like me believe the demand is there, but can't be proven because the supply doesn't exist. Whether I'm wrong or not we'll see - but we won't know till release.
You could make guesstimates based on factors like Facebook and say since they have 13000+ likes then it equates to at least 13000 subscriptions (yes I know likes can be manipulated).
Like 4th time people twisting what I am saying...
(hey look! poster above does it again...)
demand
Definitions
notice it says DESIRE
here is another definition
The amount of a particular economic good or service that a consumer or group of consumers will want to purchase at a given price.
Notice, WILL WANT TO PURCHASE
To measure SUPPLY there must be produced products, not sold, just produced. Again, thats SUPPLY. not DEMAND. Demand is simply the desire for a product. Whether that product has been produced or not is irrelevant.
If there is, for example, a drought that kills off 99% of the world's corn plants. The DEMAND for corn doesn't fucking dissapear, the SUPPLY does.
"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."
- Friedrich Nietzsche
@Gedemami
There is no twisting of words - you obviously have never been an entrepreneur. If you think that those in business just blindly create new products without having a gauge of demand prior to creating the product, there's no use of explaining further.
Like I said before, you can look at similar products, products with similar features and attributes.
You can only measure what you have evidence of - how people spend their money on things that already exist.
They could measure the interest in an idea and then produce a new product based on the interest in the idea.
"classification of games into MMOs is not by rational reasoning" - nariusseldon
Love Minecraft. And check out my Youtube channel OhCanadaGamer
Try a MUD today at http://www.mudconnect.com/I guess we'll just have to wait and see who is better at foretelling. I'm of the mind that the game will garner enough interest to be profitable if not a blockbuster. That's good enough to keep the game running and me having fun playing it. Neither the developer nor us fans have any delusions of grandeur, just a central belief there is a sizeable audience for a game like this and that is good enough for us.
Where is the data to back up your claim? Frankly, no one knows one way or the other if a group oriented game would make it in today's market since no one has tried in the last decade. I'm glad Brad is willing to try.
It's not science at all when there is no data or empirical evidence to prove your claim. Short of doing an extensive survey of the MMORPG gaming population, we won't find out till someone tries.
Why do you care? You both obviously feel this game will fail and dot seem to care for it in general. Your arguments are nonsense at worst and ignorant if Im kind. But you know what I dont really care why you think the way you think. But what does bother me is why you care what I and others think. And even more so to such a high degree. How can you be this passionate about something you dont care about or think will fail. If it were me Id definitely find a better use of my time. I mean I get the whole internet is anonymous thing, but there are a lot of games I dislike but would never waste my time on it for pages???
And I don't mean this as a negative thing.
Will be interesting to see how sustainable games targeting this segment will be, especially after all the banter around here regarding these types of games.
Many people will have to eat their hats, no matter which way it pans out
Will stock up on popcorn once the first wave of these games starts releasing.
Personally I can enjoy both oldschool and newer games and wish every game luck. The more the merrier.