Thank You Nintendo, With Love - Microsoft

maskedweasel

Here's an article outlining why Pokemon Go has now put AR and Hololens on the road to Mainstream Adoption:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2016/07/13/why-pokemon-go-is-great-news-for-microsoft/#4ef816dd1d9d


excerpts: 

" Pokémon GO is a killer app with a capital K. It’s been downloaded by nearly 8 million people in its first week and is dominating media coverage. "

"What does any of this have to do with Microsoft? Well, last year, Microsoft unveiled a proof-of-concept product called Hololens, an augmented reality headset that takes the concept of overlaying digital content on the real world many steps beyond the primitive Google Glass."

"With the advent of Pokémon GO, vast numbers of people now “get” AR in a visceral, experiential way. It’s likely that in the last week, the number of people who have personally used the technology has leapfrogged those who have ever strapped on a VR headset by a magnitude of 10x or more.

That means the pitch for Hololens just became “You know the Pokémon game? Imagine being able to do that, but with something really useful, without having to hold up and stare at your phone the whole time.”"

"The timing for that is ideal for Microsoft. The company is now shipping the Hololens product, aggressively pushing its SDK out to developers, and showcasing interesting demos. "

"Imagine being able to find inventory in a giant warehouse by “seeing” the object you’re looking for glowing inside its container. Imagine a doctor being able to see the exact location of a medical anomaly inside the patient’s body by mapping MRI data through a head-mounted display. Several months ago, I worked with a startup called OneBridge, that’s taking messy data generated by pipe maintenance equipment, mashing it up with geolocation data, and sending it through a Hololens to enable repair crews to spot faults in underground oil and gas pipes with capabilities that approximate X-ray vision."

"Now, because of the instant saturation ofPokémon GO, AR has gone from niche, pie-in-the-sky science fiction to mainstream. And we’ve seen in the past decade how consumer adoption of new technology now leads the enterprise... If that ends up opening the door even a crack to AR in the enterprise, Microsoft is positioned to be the primary beneficiary. And they’ll have Nintendo and Google to thank for it."

MadFrenchie

Torval said:

AR devices are really the next step as a general use peripheral. Mobile devices will be the hub and a more true "personal computer". My iPhone 6S is already more powerful than most every computer I've ever used except my current desktop.

Imagine AR devices like Hololens, Glass (or whatever Goog does with that next), Apple AR (whatever that turns out to be), etc all tied into your phone and other wearables as you go about your business for the day.

The potential is intriguing.

Completely agreed.

Being able to enhance one's senses (AR) is a much easier sell, from the starting line, than attempting to replace one's senses or trick those senses into believing another reality wholesale (VR).

I believe, eventually, VR will offer the immersion experience we all imagine...  But between now and then, I see AR being much more useful.

By the way, I read an article a while ago talking about a Japanese company that's well on their way to manufacturing working, cybernetic eyes.  Imagine the Hololens + cybernetic eye implications for everything (surgeons, police, soldiers, air traffic controllers, pilots, mailmen, etc.).

I want mine to come with an enhanced zoom and feature spotting function.  I hate walking into a crowded area to meet friends and not being able to spot them in the crowd immediately.

cameltosis

Augmented Reality has a much brighter future than Virtual Reality. 


VR sounds great, but like some of you have already said, its replacing a sense, rather than enhancing it. However, VR, to be truly good, should replace as many senses as possible. AR doesn't need that. 


A company I previously worked for experimented with AR. We did a few tech demos first, just using QR codes and the like to display AR stuff. For example, pointing your phone at a yacht magazine with a special code on it and your phone would display a 3D model rotating above the magazine. 

We then took it further. We were commissioned to build an AR app for architects. The goal was for architects to be able to design their new project (house, extension, garden or whatever), upload the model to the app along with GPS co-ordinates, then physically visit that location with their clients to view the new project in-situ. So, client would be able to physically walk through their front door, take a your of their house, see what the views were like etc, all via AR and their phone. Its an epic sales tool for architects, provides peace of mind to customers etc. 

Sadly, GPS on phones was too inaccurate so the experience wasn't great, but still really cool. 



For more general purpose things, I imagine things like AR adverts in high streets (e.g. walk past GAME store wearing a headset and you might see some soldiers having a fight in mid-air), AR tie-ins with games (so, walking down the street and your guild mates appear as they do in game), AR-type lasertag (so, being able to change the environment using AR, making other players appear differently etc) as well as the examples stated earlier for things like locating stock in warehouses, finding exact places for pipe leaks, AR for surgery, hell, AR as a replacement for sat navs. Then there is the military (using satelite data to augment what the soldiers see), navy/marine (being able to see through the ocean to gauge depth, spot wrecks etc). 

FlyByKnight

I came in to the discussion to press "Agree" for everyone who posted thus far. Augmented Reality peripherals have great potential especially long term. They have more attainable goals for application NOW which will only push the growth further.

JDis25

Honestly I am not sure if AR would work for everything. Mobile games on their own are very basic, including pokemon go. The reason pokemon works is because it's cute, fun, colorful, appeals to adults and children alike, offers collectables in exchange for gameplay depth.

So Pokemon certainly works for AR, it also follows the spirit of being a pokemon trainer and walking everywhere on foot/skates/bike.

They want to make a game of thrones AR mobile game, and I am just not sure I can see that being successful. It's a medieval game, augmented onto our 21st century world... makes no sense. I have to believe it will be a strategy game otherwise gameplay will be severely limited unless we are collecting Ned Starks, and Tyrion Lannisters all over the place.

Look at Ingress, it was never hugely popular, although did have a significant following. I know I wouldn't really care about AR for many different kinds of games. It's the whole package of Pokemon go that works for me.

Nephaerius

Did you know the initial dev versions of Hololens go for $3000? 

Also:
"18/01/2016: Microsoft has revealed its HoloLens virtual reality headset will only work for five and a half hours with light use or a rather paltry two and a half hours for intensive users."

And:
"30/03/2016: The HoloLens headset may have an overheating issue, according to game developer David Dedeine.

In an interview with PC World, Dedeine said that the HoloLens goggles contain a processor that heats up during use, to the extent where the headset becocmes too hot to touch with bare skin and thus dangerous to wear for long periods."

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3047652/hardware/hololens-developer-reveals-how-ar-is-changing-the-game-in-every-sense-of-the-word.html

http://www.itpro.co.uk/mobile/24780/microsoft-hololens-release-date-rumours-specs-pricing-japan-airlines-uses-hololens-to

Righteous_Rock

Holo lens was the first thing that came to mind when learning of the pokemon go craze. Xb1 might not be winning in sales of console war, but xbox live synergies with xb1 and pc will rival steam in a multi platform service that connects pc to console

SpottyGekko

" It’s likely that in the last week, the number of people who have personally used the technology has leapfrogged those who have ever strapped on a VR headset by a magnitude of 10x or more."

I wouldn't be surprised if that's a magnitude of 100X or more by now, and 1000X by next week as Pokemon GO goes global.

But does Microsoft really have the clear lead at this point ? Or is some unknown going to come out of left field and surprise us all ?

Undoubtedly there are a few hastily thrown-together teams busy feverishly preparing product proposals for board reviews next week. "How did we miss this ?!"

maskedweasel

Nephaerius said:

Did you know the initial dev versions of Hololens go for $3000? 

Also:
"18/01/2016: Microsoft has revealed its HoloLens virtual reality headset will only work for five and a half hours with light use or a rather paltry two and a half hours for intensive users."

And:
"30/03/2016: The HoloLens headset may have an overheating issue, according to game developer David Dedeine.

In an interview with PC World, Dedeine said that the HoloLens goggles contain a processor that heats up during use, to the extent where the headset becocmes too hot to touch with bare skin and thus dangerous to wear for long periods."

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3047652/hardware/hololens-developer-reveals-how-ar-is-changing-the-game-in-every-sense-of-the-word.html

http://www.itpro.co.uk/mobile/24780/microsoft-hololens-release-date-rumours-specs-pricing-japan-airlines-uses-hololens-to

It's a development kit, *not* a consumer device.  Just like how they send out DK's of their consoles, it's really about development.  Plus these aren't being mass produced which does bring down costs some.   

Don't think of Hololens right now in its current state as what consumers will see.  Another major issue the current Development Kit has is that the view width is much smaller than they would like. 

In a consumer set they will likely streamline it to make it less cumbersome with adequate cooling and a wider view range... I would just imagine seeing as how these are the current issues that require attention prior to any consumer launch.  A consumer launch that currently doesn't have a time frame. 

CrazKanuk

SpottyGekko said:

" It’s likely that in the last week, the number of people who have personally used the technology has leapfrogged those who have ever strapped on a VR headset by a magnitude of 10x or more."

I wouldn't be surprised if that's a magnitude of 100X or more by now, and 1000X by next week as Pokemon GO goes global.

But does Microsoft really have the clear lead at this point ? Or is some unknown going to come out of left field and surprise us all ?

Undoubtedly there are a few hastily thrown-together teams busy feverishly preparing product proposals for board reviews next week. "How did we miss this ?!"

Well I read Pokemon Go has like 21 million daily active users, so the magnitude could be like 100000x right now, lol. Who knows what next week will bring. 

I a smaller company could probably be more agile (similar to how the original Hololens team was), but it's all the regulatory BS that will likely stall anyone, and where a larger team and more money probably helps a lot. 

Phry

SpottyGekko said:

" It’s likely that in the last week, the number of people who have personally used the technology has leapfrogged those who have ever strapped on a VR headset by a magnitude of 10x or more."

I wouldn't be surprised if that's a magnitude of 100X or more by now, and 1000X by next week as Pokemon GO goes global.

But does Microsoft really have the clear lead at this point ? Or is some unknown going to come out of left field and surprise us all ?

Undoubtedly there are a few hastily thrown-together teams busy feverishly preparing product proposals for board reviews next week. "How did we miss this ?!"

Pokemon Go probably would look better with something like Hololens, but, its not even close to being an affordable option, and there is the heat thing, and battery life, and... tbh, its a killer app for smartphones, if anything it might even draw the impetus away from devices like Hololens, because people already have smart phones, so why bother with a hololens like device?
It will probably spawn more AR games using smart phones, but, i don't really see it being anything more than that, mostly because of how much it would cost to do it. After all, Pokemon Go uses the smart phones gps location, its processor because it is a game after all, not to mention the camera in the things, to try and incorporate that into a very slimline headset, after all you couldn't put together something that looks like a VR headset, that would daft, not to mention impractical and nobody would buy it.
Its a smart phone thing, and its likely to stay that way tbh, i think the tech is still not there yet where affordable AR glasses are really possible.

laserit

Nephaerius said:

Did you know the initial dev versions of Hololens go for $3000? 

Also:
"18/01/2016: Microsoft has revealed its HoloLens virtual reality headset will only work for five and a half hours with light use or a rather paltry two and a half hours for intensive users."

And:
"30/03/2016: The HoloLens headset may have an overheating issue, according to game developer David Dedeine.

In an interview with PC World, Dedeine said that the HoloLens goggles contain a processor that heats up during use, to the extent where the headset becocmes too hot to touch with bare skin and thus dangerous to wear for long periods."

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3047652/hardware/hololens-developer-reveals-how-ar-is-changing-the-game-in-every-sense-of-the-word.html

http://www.itpro.co.uk/mobile/24780/microsoft-hololens-release-date-rumours-specs-pricing-japan-airlines-uses-hololens-to

Were basically talking about prototypes that have advanced to the "make applications for them stage. $3000 is chicken feed for a company in the large scheme of things. They'll most likely be investing a hundred times or more in the products they're developing.

Those issues are probably the reality right now, but it is a none issue at this point. If its still the case with the consumer version that will be a different story. I have no problems believing that technology will move past those issues in the very near future.

SpottyGekko

Nephaerius said:

Did you know the initial dev versions of Hololens go for $3000? 

The market has dramatically changed overnight.

When MS revealed Hololens, the potential market consisted of a handful of early-adopters and tech nerds.
The rest of the world was at the "AR what ?" stage.

Now 8 million people are actively playing and talking about an AR-based game !

Suddenly the market is waiting for the product, not the other way around....