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Can the Game Industry Support Another Big MMO? - Garrett Fuller at MMORPG.com

2

Comments

  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719
    DMKano said:

    But it won't happen - because the ,majority playerbase today doesn't have the time nor want to spend hours every day playing one video game.


    Thing is... the minority of this much bigger player base is larger than the majority who wanted MMOs back when.

    If you're not trying to compete with LOL and GTA there is more than enough who want it.

    However if the thing you're after is the most players ever, look elsewhere... mobile crap and market the shit out of it. 
    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • dgmakodgmako Member UncommonPosts: 28
    While I agree with a bunch of what some of you are saying, I think that people forget that while some games came to be out of "projects of passion", in the end these are businesses backing them and they want to follow the money. The projects of passion are now mostly done by indie projects and unfortunately none of this will ever change because by the time a great idea comes to fruition there are so many others that exists to replace it.

    For MMOs to exist and be successful, they require a very large team of people with their ideas already in focus and realized, with a large amount of money backing them. When this team gets too big the original ideas change, when the project gets too big due to lack of time and money they have to make compromises. When large compromises are made, it's difficult to keep the original ideas in focus... it's a vicious cycle. So that initial idea that may have come originally from a project of passion , gets turned into compromises instead of that great MMO they original thought they were making.

    I could be wrong but I feel like it's illogical now a days to expect a great MMO to exist. Even if you don't agree with me, imagine that to come out with some great game you would need a lot of engine, idea, story, characters, etc 100% done. By the time you get all that done, now try to add updated graphics to it, before you get done, you are out of time, out of money, or your MMO is outdated.

    This is just one man's opinion.

    image
  • esc-joconnoresc-joconnor Member RarePosts: 1,097
    DMKano said:
    As allways times will return, as soon as as someone decides to create a huge MMORPG again and its a big hit.... all will jump the bandwagon again

    But it won't happen - because the ,majority playerbase today doesn't have the time nor want to spend hours every day playing one video game.

    Sort of like saying - "as soon as someone creates the next awesome land line phone - and it's a big hit - all will go back to analog phones"

    Nope.

    MMORPGs are analog phones in todays market - they're niche and not a product that masses want.
    I really don't agree with you on this topic. Look at how many people still play WoW. Look at how many people try each new MMORPGs that comes out. It's only after they try the game that they move on. I try to get my kids (16 and 13) to play MMORPGs that I want to play, but they lose interest pretty quickly, not because it's an MMORPG, it's because they don't like that particular game. My older son loves the hunter in WoW, so he's play that all day, but I'm not interested in playing much myself, so I don't want to pay for 3 accounts XD

    I think that not only are there a lot of people who want to play MMORPGs out there that aren't currently playing one, but there are more who are currently playing one that doesn't fulfill them. I'm in the last boat myself. So I jump around playing an MMORPG for a few weeks until I it gets dull again, then I move on to another. If a good game were to come out I'd be in there for years.

    If you look at the hype for a new MMORPG compared to the population that ends up sticking around its a small fraction. I hear from a lot of people leaving MMORPGs, and not many of them do it to have more time for SNS, or other types of games, they are disappointed by changes or lack of action from the studio, or they go to try another MMORPG! Sure they do play LoL or other games some times, but they don't leave to play LoL.
  • LackingMMOLackingMMO Member RarePosts: 664
    Easy answer, YES.


    There is really not a lot of "big" MMOs, there are a handful. The issue I see is mmos cater to solo play which in a sense is fine but creates a issue in itself. If your playing an online game solo, or a single player game solo what is the better option and the better game? Almost always a solo game that is created for solo play will be the better option than playing a mmo for solo play.


    Devs are too scared to create a niche game when mmos are a niche in itself. So they create an image of a game that's going to cater to everyone but upon release bombs. Peoples expectations of each release is higher and higher but the quality gets lower and lower. If devs released the game they advertise we would have a healthy supply of good games out right now.
  • cameltosiscameltosis Member LegendaryPosts: 3,847
    I definitely think the market can support another big MMO, as long as the quality and gameplay is good.

    But thats the catch. It can't be a WoW clone as the market already has plenty of WoW clones of decent enough quality, so you have to go for something new. Yet, no other MMO model has proven itself to provide good gameplay and quality. Action combat has proven itself to be shallow, we've never had a AAA sandbox so that formula is a big risk. Story-focus is great with casuals but short lived. PvP, whilst massively popular in other genres has never managed to get it right in the MMO space.

    So, whatever the developer decides to do, its going to be a big risk which is why we haven't seen any of the big studios go for something truly innovative. It would take an incredible amount of talent to come up with a cohesive design for a game that offers both instant gratification (to get people into the game) as well as long term deep gameplay (to keep people playing long term) and doesn't depend on the devs churning out content every month.
    Currently Playing: WAR RoR - Spitt rr7X Black Orc | Scrotling rr6X Squig Herder | Scabrous rr4X Shaman

  • AnthurAnthur Member UncommonPosts: 961
    "Executives need to change their way of thinking and how they define success."

    Funny article. Executives already changed their way of thinking. That's the reason we got what we have now. Regarding MMOs that's F2P, cash shops, cooky cutter game design etc. . Executives are minimizing the risk while maximizing the profit. And the definition of success has always been the same: Money.
  • TacticalZombehTacticalZombeh Member UncommonPosts: 431
    The best thing I remember about MMOs when I first played was the sense of 'this is something new and wonderful'.
    My first MMOs were Everquest and Asheron's Call. 'New and Wonderful' were the ability to be inside a 3d world with other people. I favored EQ because when I went into a zone, it was filled with people chatting, helping each other or just random nonsense. It felt alive and immersive and it was new and different.
    People jumped on this fantastic combination of 3d 1st person exploration and socialization in a fantasy world like crazy. It even attracted *gasp* female gamers and whole families.

    Blizzard took many of the things that made the very first 3d MMOs good, fine tuned or just got rid of the some of the more annoying things, slapped it on a popular IP and the MMO scene exploded.

    All of this will not be seen again until something ground-breakingly new is introduced. The first MMOs became so popular because they were a combination of things that just didn't exist as a whole: An immersive 3d social experience.

    Now they're a dime-a-dozen, in so many flavors, that people don't find the need to flock to any one because it's the only thing out there.

    It's going to take something huge. Not just a popular IP, a whole new way to play.
  • JMulla2016JMulla2016 Member UncommonPosts: 12
    Of course the industry can support another big MMO, but I'm afraid it's not going to happen as it seems there isn't enough interest from both developers and gamers. Especially developers, since they can churn out something that looks fresh, but is really more of the same and get away with it because the majority is fine with having a mediocre repetitive games at best.

    Also, we're constantly making a mistake in referencing past times as somewhat of a starting point for future endeavors. Those times are gone, so much has changed that even the market from 4-5 years ago is very different than today.

  • sanshi44sanshi44 Member UncommonPosts: 1,187

    Renoaku said:

    Yes we need another big MMO like World OF Warcraft, but more modern better UI and everything better customization and all.



    No thanks you that was the beginning of the end of MMO's and the birth of single player RPG with chat room and the occasion group function that you will never see again.
    They need to go back to pre WoW days before Blizzard made a game and gutted what MMORPG use to be.
    The older games had substantcially more features in the back ground because they were based around RPG experience which carried depth, Blizzard made a game it was a good game with good mechanic and all that when it first came out however it very shallow it didnt have the deppth the older games had which made them feel like worlds not just a game.
    Some things that the newer games dont have compared to older ones to name a few.
    - Large Open world, many leveling option and much more starter cities for replayability (No instances, these were made to make thing convient however running into people in dunguens and other raid groups made things feel more like a real world)
    - Less rewards but more about the journey (New games just throw shiny new equipment at you for basicly doing nothing most of which makes no sense for that item to drop from x mob or x reward.) Everquest for example mobs dropped equipment was somewhat rare but they were good and often lasted many levels and they made sense, for example you never saw weapons and armor dropped from non humanoid mobs because it impracticle for those mobs to be running round with shiny chest plates.
    - Factions this was huges, Everquest had 1000's of faction when released each of which would raise and lower depending on what you did, you could literaly kill your own guards and become KoS to them however cities that use to hate you may now welcome you for your miss deeds (High keep guard farming for fine steel short swords anyone).
    - Going along the above point Freedom, you had the freedom to do pretty much what u wanted.
    - Death penality that made u wanna advoid dieing is a rather big one imo, like if you dont fear dieing then there nothing u realy have to fear in the game and without fear you get a game and no world.
  • CrazKanukCrazKanuk Member EpicPosts: 6,130
    Iselin said:
    DMKano said:

    But it won't happen - because the ,majority playerbase today doesn't have the time nor want to spend hours every day playing one video game.


    Thing is... the minority of this much bigger player base is larger than the majority who wanted MMOs back when.

    If you're not trying to compete with LOL and GTA there is more than enough who want it.

    However if the thing you're after is the most players ever, look elsewhere... mobile crap and market the shit out of it. 

    Is it? Is D&D larger or smaller than it was back in the 90s? I think that assuming that the player base is larger is a bit short-sighted. The player base from the late 90s was much different. We were D&D players. People who were in love with the idea of being able to play a game over the Internet with someone else. Today, nearly every game contains some sort of MMO component. In fact! When a game "lasts" for a year today, it's a failure. Meanwhile, back in the early 90s my parents were getting angry with me because I was trading games every week. So, today, it's a market of choice. Do people really want an MMORPG? I think that remains to be seen. There is most definitely a market. I'm just not sure what the size of that market REALLY is. 

    Today, there are a multitude of games which could completely engulf any and all free time you have. My son plays MLB on console for hours on end. Millions of others have, and do, play Destiny daily. Diablo 3 is going on 5 years. GTA V has millions of players monthly. Shoot! Skyrim is 5 years old and still has had 1 million players actively playing it in the last 2 weeks on Steam. The market is full of games which can, quite easily, occupy your time for hundreds (or thousands) of hours. They, effectively, do a better job of satisfying the need that was filled with early MMORPGs than what current MMORPGs do. 

    So how big IS the MMORPG market? I think it's healthy in the East, but I'd question the size of it in the West. 


    Crazkanuk

    ----------------
    Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
    Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
    Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
    Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
    Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
    ----------------

  • daltaniousdaltanious Member UncommonPosts: 2,381
    I always look for something new, but with Wow back on track with Legion, with Teso, Rift, ... that all keeps me busy entire year for the first time I could not care less for something new.
  • jusomdudejusomdude Member RarePosts: 2,706
    I think there will eventually be another big MMO but I doubt it will be from an AAA company. Who knows when it'll happen though.
  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    I do not think MMOs have a future.

    This is mostly because private server games make more sense, in great demand and have tons of options. Even games like Wurm is taking there entire MMO server code and offering it for sale as a single player/private server solution.

    There is also Dunbar's Number to consider
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar's_number

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

    Please do not respond to me

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342
    edited October 2016
    MMO market currently sports 2 big MMOs besides WoW, each is bigger than any other MMO to the date but let's conveniently ignore that fact and write some completely stupid article how we are 2 years with no blockbuster released because they are apparently supposed to be released at least twice a year. And that does not even account for games such as The Division and so on...

    Where the heck do you get those columnists?!
  • kitaradkitarad Member LegendaryPosts: 8,178
    edited October 2016
    Just because there are a portion of the current gamers weary of MMORPGs does not mean that there is no room for a new MMORPG. Just imagine how many more players you can attract if you have the right game. The key is the right game that can excite, inspire and attract new players to this genre just like WoW did by bringing millions to this genre.

  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719
    CrazKanuk said:
    Iselin said:
    DMKano said:

    But it won't happen - because the ,majority playerbase today doesn't have the time nor want to spend hours every day playing one video game.


    Thing is... the minority of this much bigger player base is larger than the majority who wanted MMOs back when.

    If you're not trying to compete with LOL and GTA there is more than enough who want it.

    However if the thing you're after is the most players ever, look elsewhere... mobile crap and market the shit out of it. 

    Is it? Is D&D larger or smaller than it was back in the 90s? I think that assuming that the player base is larger is a bit short-sighted. The player base from the late 90s was much different. We were D&D players. People who were in love with the idea of being able to play a game over the Internet with someone else. Today, nearly every game contains some sort of MMO component. In fact! When a game "lasts" for a year today, it's a failure. Meanwhile, back in the early 90s my parents were getting angry with me because I was trading games every week. So, today, it's a market of choice. Do people really want an MMORPG? I think that remains to be seen. There is most definitely a market. I'm just not sure what the size of that market REALLY is. 

    Today, there are a multitude of games which could completely engulf any and all free time you have. My son plays MLB on console for hours on end. Millions of others have, and do, play Destiny daily. Diablo 3 is going on 5 years. GTA V has millions of players monthly. Shoot! Skyrim is 5 years old and still has had 1 million players actively playing it in the last 2 weeks on Steam. The market is full of games which can, quite easily, occupy your time for hundreds (or thousands) of hours. They, effectively, do a better job of satisfying the need that was filled with early MMORPGs than what current MMORPGs do. 

    So how big IS the MMORPG market? I think it's healthy in the East, but I'd question the size of it in the West. 


    With the huge increases in the general video game market sales which is now very much a mainstream form of entertainments, the exponential growth of available MMORPG titles that continue to be profitable, and their recent penetration of the console market, you're seriously doubting that there are many more people playing MMORPGs today than there were 10 years ago?

    OK.
    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • CrazKanukCrazKanuk Member EpicPosts: 6,130
    Iselin said:
    CrazKanuk said:
    Iselin said:
    DMKano said:

    But it won't happen - because the ,majority playerbase today doesn't have the time nor want to spend hours every day playing one video game.


    Thing is... the minority of this much bigger player base is larger than the majority who wanted MMOs back when.

    If you're not trying to compete with LOL and GTA there is more than enough who want it.

    However if the thing you're after is the most players ever, look elsewhere... mobile crap and market the shit out of it. 

    Is it? Is D&D larger or smaller than it was back in the 90s? I think that assuming that the player base is larger is a bit short-sighted. The player base from the late 90s was much different. We were D&D players. People who were in love with the idea of being able to play a game over the Internet with someone else. Today, nearly every game contains some sort of MMO component. In fact! When a game "lasts" for a year today, it's a failure. Meanwhile, back in the early 90s my parents were getting angry with me because I was trading games every week. So, today, it's a market of choice. Do people really want an MMORPG? I think that remains to be seen. There is most definitely a market. I'm just not sure what the size of that market REALLY is. 

    Today, there are a multitude of games which could completely engulf any and all free time you have. My son plays MLB on console for hours on end. Millions of others have, and do, play Destiny daily. Diablo 3 is going on 5 years. GTA V has millions of players monthly. Shoot! Skyrim is 5 years old and still has had 1 million players actively playing it in the last 2 weeks on Steam. The market is full of games which can, quite easily, occupy your time for hundreds (or thousands) of hours. They, effectively, do a better job of satisfying the need that was filled with early MMORPGs than what current MMORPGs do. 

    So how big IS the MMORPG market? I think it's healthy in the East, but I'd question the size of it in the West. 


    With the huge increases in the general video game market sales which is now very much a mainstream form of entertainments, the exponential growth of available MMORPG titles that continue to be profitable, and their recent penetration of the console market, you're seriously doubting that there are many more people playing MMORPGs today than there were 10 years ago?

    OK.

    Not at all. I'm not questioning the size of the video game market. I'm questioning the size of the MMORPG market. There are TONS of "MMORPG" games which are on consoles, etc. However, I quote MMORPG because the majority of games that become wildly popular these days are shadows of the genre and purists would debate whether they actually qualify as MMORPGs at all. Neverwinter is a prime example, berated for being a D&D title. 

    So, no, I'm not debating the number of people playing multiplayer games these days. I'm debating the size of the market to support what people would classify as a "Big MMORPG". I mean, technically, Red Dead Redemption 2 is coming, so that is the next big "MMORPG". 

    I guess it's more of a contextual thing than anything else. We will, inevitably, see an "RPG "with multiplayer elements. However, I don't think that there will be anything "Big" which actually fits into the traditional sense of the word. 

    Crazkanuk

    ----------------
    Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
    Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
    Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
    Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
    Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
    ----------------

  • MasoodVoonMasoodVoon Member UncommonPosts: 50
    TeamUp said:
    Different generations have a pallet for different experiences. It is the natural order of things. Us, old guys and gals had a fun time with the group play and did not mind paying a monthly fee for it. It seems as if group play is not as popular with the new generation, and they prefer not to pay a monthly fee. It is what it is, as the new generation overtakes us old guys.
    I disagree. I think the group play isn't as engaging as it used to be because: a) features have eroded the benefits of socializing to complete group content (raid finder lfg, autogrouping, etc), b)  the number of offerings that appeal to splinter/specific groups/tastes cause high turnover in games which erode communities, c) there is no third reason but always need 3 bullets.
  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719
    CrazKanuk said:
    Iselin said:
    CrazKanuk said:
    Iselin said:
    DMKano said:

    But it won't happen - because the ,majority playerbase today doesn't have the time nor want to spend hours every day playing one video game.


    Thing is... the minority of this much bigger player base is larger than the majority who wanted MMOs back when.

    If you're not trying to compete with LOL and GTA there is more than enough who want it.

    However if the thing you're after is the most players ever, look elsewhere... mobile crap and market the shit out of it. 

    Is it? Is D&D larger or smaller than it was back in the 90s? I think that assuming that the player base is larger is a bit short-sighted. The player base from the late 90s was much different. We were D&D players. People who were in love with the idea of being able to play a game over the Internet with someone else. Today, nearly every game contains some sort of MMO component. In fact! When a game "lasts" for a year today, it's a failure. Meanwhile, back in the early 90s my parents were getting angry with me because I was trading games every week. So, today, it's a market of choice. Do people really want an MMORPG? I think that remains to be seen. There is most definitely a market. I'm just not sure what the size of that market REALLY is. 

    Today, there are a multitude of games which could completely engulf any and all free time you have. My son plays MLB on console for hours on end. Millions of others have, and do, play Destiny daily. Diablo 3 is going on 5 years. GTA V has millions of players monthly. Shoot! Skyrim is 5 years old and still has had 1 million players actively playing it in the last 2 weeks on Steam. The market is full of games which can, quite easily, occupy your time for hundreds (or thousands) of hours. They, effectively, do a better job of satisfying the need that was filled with early MMORPGs than what current MMORPGs do. 

    So how big IS the MMORPG market? I think it's healthy in the East, but I'd question the size of it in the West. 


    With the huge increases in the general video game market sales which is now very much a mainstream form of entertainments, the exponential growth of available MMORPG titles that continue to be profitable, and their recent penetration of the console market, you're seriously doubting that there are many more people playing MMORPGs today than there were 10 years ago?

    OK.

    Not at all. I'm not questioning the size of the video game market. I'm questioning the size of the MMORPG market. There are TONS of "MMORPG" games which are on consoles, etc. However, I quote MMORPG because the majority of games that become wildly popular these days are shadows of the genre and purists would debate whether they actually qualify as MMORPGs at all. Neverwinter is a prime example, berated for being a D&D title. 

    So, no, I'm not debating the number of people playing multiplayer games these days. I'm debating the size of the market to support what people would classify as a "Big MMORPG". I mean, technically, Red Dead Redemption 2 is coming, so that is the next big "MMORPG". 

    I guess it's more of a contextual thing than anything else. We will, inevitably, see an "RPG "with multiplayer elements. However, I don't think that there will be anything "Big" which actually fits into the traditional sense of the word. 
    I'm not even thinking about quasi-MMORPGs (but bad example with NWN - I personally dislike it myself but it fits in the category in my subjective opinion despite its heavy instancing) there are easily 10 times the number of honest to goodness MMORPGs alive and well today compared to 2003.

    The perceived decline is an artifact influenced by the decline of (a 12 year old MMO) WOW's subscription numbers without taking into account how rare subs in MMORPGs are these F2P days, and also by the huge popularity of MOBAs like LOL which is perceived by some as taking customers away from the MMORPG market. Kano is right in asserting that the masses prefer the quick matches that MOBAs and shooters provide but where he's wrong is in thinking that these masses once preferred MMORPGs and their taste changed. The masses have always preferred something other than MMORPGs. But the minority who do? That has grown steadily into a larger payer base. 

    A BIG new MMORPG thing is more viable today than it has ever been. Someone just has to build it properly.
    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,857
    edited October 2016
    I've always held the opinion that the qualities that make a successful (subjective) MMO.....That is, one that is sustainable with subscriptions and no RMT. Won't appeal to the masses and is really more Niche than mainstream.

    As for WoW? It was a one time thing. While I believe it's repeatable since it happened once, I don't think anyone has yet figured out how to do it again.
  • kitaradkitarad Member LegendaryPosts: 8,178
    Are people shittier than before ? Is that why grouping has become an option that people no longer want and would prefer to solo. Must ask this because even in social media some of the things people are writing and doing seem like our humanity is being eroded away. Is less grouping just a natural progression of our increasingly insular behaviour while being surrounded by devices that expose us to the public in alarming and massive ways.

  • ThebeastttThebeasttt Member RarePosts: 1,130
    The industry needs another GOOD mmo. The size is irrelevant(for once).
  • CrazKanukCrazKanuk Member EpicPosts: 6,130
    Iselin said:
    CrazKanuk said:
    Iselin said:
    CrazKanuk said:
    Iselin said:
    DMKano said:

    But it won't happen - because the ,majority playerbase today doesn't have the time nor want to spend hours every day playing one video game.


    Thing is... the minority of this much bigger player base is larger than the majority who wanted MMOs back when.

    If you're not trying to compete with LOL and GTA there is more than enough who want it.

    However if the thing you're after is the most players ever, look elsewhere... mobile crap and market the shit out of it. 

    Is it? Is D&D larger or smaller than it was back in the 90s? I think that assuming that the player base is larger is a bit short-sighted. The player base from the late 90s was much different. We were D&D players. People who were in love with the idea of being able to play a game over the Internet with someone else. Today, nearly every game contains some sort of MMO component. In fact! When a game "lasts" for a year today, it's a failure. Meanwhile, back in the early 90s my parents were getting angry with me because I was trading games every week. So, today, it's a market of choice. Do people really want an MMORPG? I think that remains to be seen. There is most definitely a market. I'm just not sure what the size of that market REALLY is. 

    Today, there are a multitude of games which could completely engulf any and all free time you have. My son plays MLB on console for hours on end. Millions of others have, and do, play Destiny daily. Diablo 3 is going on 5 years. GTA V has millions of players monthly. Shoot! Skyrim is 5 years old and still has had 1 million players actively playing it in the last 2 weeks on Steam. The market is full of games which can, quite easily, occupy your time for hundreds (or thousands) of hours. They, effectively, do a better job of satisfying the need that was filled with early MMORPGs than what current MMORPGs do. 

    So how big IS the MMORPG market? I think it's healthy in the East, but I'd question the size of it in the West. 


    With the huge increases in the general video game market sales which is now very much a mainstream form of entertainments, the exponential growth of available MMORPG titles that continue to be profitable, and their recent penetration of the console market, you're seriously doubting that there are many more people playing MMORPGs today than there were 10 years ago?

    OK.

    Not at all. I'm not questioning the size of the video game market. I'm questioning the size of the MMORPG market. There are TONS of "MMORPG" games which are on consoles, etc. However, I quote MMORPG because the majority of games that become wildly popular these days are shadows of the genre and purists would debate whether they actually qualify as MMORPGs at all. Neverwinter is a prime example, berated for being a D&D title. 

    So, no, I'm not debating the number of people playing multiplayer games these days. I'm debating the size of the market to support what people would classify as a "Big MMORPG". I mean, technically, Red Dead Redemption 2 is coming, so that is the next big "MMORPG". 

    I guess it's more of a contextual thing than anything else. We will, inevitably, see an "RPG "with multiplayer elements. However, I don't think that there will be anything "Big" which actually fits into the traditional sense of the word. 
    I'm not even thinking about quasi-MMORPGs (but bad example with NWN - I personally dislike it myself but it fits in the category in my subjective opinion despite its heavy instancing) there are easily 10 times the number of honest to goodness MMORPGs alive and well today compared to 2003.

    The perceived decline is an artifact influenced by the decline of (a 12 year old MMO) WOW's subscription numbers without taking into account how rare subs in MMORPGs are these F2P days, and also by the huge popularity of MOBAs like LOL which is perceived by some as taking customers away from the MMORPG market. Kano is right in asserting that the masses prefer the quick matches that MOBAs and shooters provide but where he's wrong is in thinking that these masses once preferred MMORPGs and their taste changed. The masses have always preferred something other than MMORPGs. But the minority who do? That has grown steadily into a larger payer base. 

    A BIG new MMORPG thing is more viable today than it has ever been. Someone just has to build it properly.

    Yeah, and that was the core of my question is how big of an MMORPG audience there actually is. I think that's the one thing that prevents anything from happening. Regardless of the games that are out there today, the question is how many of them would play, say, Everquest over something like Neverwinter? 

    I am in complete agreement that there is a market for MMORPGs, but I don't see room for a "big" MMORPG. You talk about not developing something for the masses, but what are you defining as "big" then? How many players would constitute big? 1 million? This is where it becomes nebulous. What I can tell you is that 1 million number is a small percentage of a larger number. That larger number is whatever the MMORPG community is. So how big is that? What's the likelihood of getting that 1 million people? Even if we got that 1 million, that might leave us with $40 million in revenues, total. That could sustain a dev team of 300 for 1 year. What would be the cost to actually develop that game, maintain it, etc., etc? Again, "big" is the main idea here. 

    I think that Pantheon and CU and Crowfall and Shards Online are all upcoming games that will be more telling of the size of the market. If any of those were to break out with a couple million users, I think that there might be some ears perking up, but the performance of games like Darkfall, SotA, PFO, just give no confidence that there is a market worth pursuing with any sort of money, unless you have a huge IP attached to it. 

    Crazkanuk

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  • MendelMendel Member LegendaryPosts: 5,609
    CrazKanuk said:
    <snip>
    So how big IS the MMORPG market? I think it's healthy in the East, but I'd question the size of it in the West. 


    I've always thought the MMORPG market size (number of players) was an indefinite number.  Mathematically, that is a finite number, just not easily determined.  Like the grains of sand on the beach or number of stars in the sky.  Everyone who is interested in an MMORPG has played or is playing an MMORPG.  There are few who aren't capable of playing one of the existing offerings now, so the assumption is that those who aren't playing have no desire to play.  There's no huge untapped market.

    At it's peak, WoW had in the neighborhood of 12 million accounts.  There's fewer than 8 billion people on the earth, but who really thinks that WoW's 12 million accounts equates to 1/1000th of the Earth's population?  We don't know how many people (not accounts) played WoW at it's peak, but that 12 million number is tossed around frequently.

    I am with @CrazKanuk here.  The number of people in the Western hemisphere interested in MMORPGs seems to be in decline.

    Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441
    I think you are a bit too stuck on Crowfall, while it certainly can be the next Eve it wont be the next big MMO, neither will anything too close.

    Personally is my guess that the next big thing will be a PvP game with a very low powergap, one that gives you an advantage if you played longer but still offer a good fight in any case.

    That is the key to FPS and Mobas success with PvP, Most gamers do like PvP in the combat is exciting but with the huge powergap most MMOs award with level and gear it just doesn't work out.

    But PvPers really are the majority of PC gamers, MMOs need to attract them if we want something really huge.
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