In this thread, we predict the future

WoeToTheVanquished

prove me wrong.

I apologize to the mmorpg.com community for posting my opinion. I hope this thread didn't hurt the future of any up and coming games. I'm sure everything will be O.K.

Blueliner

Well aren't you a bright freaking ray of sunshine

WoeToTheVanquished

Blueliner said:

Well aren't you a bright freaking ray of sunshine

But I'm not wrong.

Yukmarc

Pantheon and Camelot aren't aiming for a large audience.... thankfully. I think the two most promising games on that list are Pantheon and Camelot.

TyranusPrime

Prove wild accusations on products that are not even out yet wrong? Ok.. Will do.. All these statements appear to be opinion.. Opinion that likely will not be shared by every potential player.. BOOM.. mike drop.. all done..

WoeToTheVanquished

TyranusPrime said:

Prove wild accusations on products that are not even out yet wrong? Ok.. Will do.. All these statements appear to be opinion.. Opinion that likely will not be shared by every potential player.. BOOM.. mike drop.. all done..

So would you like to make a wager that 9/10 of the above games won't succeed?

Vrika

WoeToTheVanquished said:

prove me wrong.

Most of the people in this thread are not predicting future, therefore your topic name has been proven wrong.

TyranusPrime

WoeToTheVanquished said:

So would you like to make a wager that 9/10 of the above games won't succeed?

Very little need to apparently.. Since you are obviously either the reincarnation of Nostradamus who has achieved a Masters in economics and a Bachelors in game development, your predictions should be dead on.. Not to mention the near-godly ability to predict each MMO player's like or dislike of possible game IPs.. Quick! I need winning lotto numbers..

WoeToTheVanquished

TyranusPrime said:

WoeToTheVanquished said:

So would you like to make a wager that 9/10 of the above games won't succeed?

Very little need to apparently.. Since you are obviously either the reincarnation of Nostradamus who has achieved a Masters in economics and a Bachelors in game development, your predictions should be dead on.. Not to mention the near-godly ability to predict each MMO player's like or dislike of possible game IPs.. Quick! I need winning lotto numbers..

So very defensive even though I haven't attacked you personally.

TyranusPrime

WoeToTheVanquished said:

So very defensive even though I haven't attacked you personally.

Well.. Definitely kind of snarky of me.. Guilty as charged.. My apologies if it feels like an attack.. I am quite tired of the doomsaying regarding the industry (especially as I work towards getting into it).. Naturally some games will be developed poorly and stumble.. But to torpedo their chance before it even comes into being? Just can't see it that way.. I enjoy a wait-and-see approach..

WoeToTheVanquished

TyranusPrime said:

Well.. Definitely kind of snarky of me.. Guilty as charged.. My apologies if it feels like an attack.. I am quite tired of the doomsaying regarding the industry (especially as I work towards getting into it).. Naturally some games will be developed poorly and stumble.. But to torpedo their chance before it even comes into being? Just can't see it that way.. I enjoy a wait-and-see approach..

I've been coming here since the age of 10 years old. Back when the Game List only had 10 titles -- some even vaporware.

See, I don't torpedo the games for no reason -- I torpedo them from how the developer/publisher markets the product, the news they release, the time in which the game has been developed, and the originating nation of the product. I can assure you that Dark and Light won't succeed because it's backed up by a chinese company: Snail Games.

The reason why I give Crowfall the benefit of the doubt is because they've already released a product that you can purchase -- regardless of alpha-beta-release status -- they've got something you can test and play publicly.

The rest of the games are in (hiding) because you can't even test their product publicly. Since the developing/publishing companies won't even offer a paid beta, I am assured they have little faith in their product -- IE: they are afraid. Or the product is so new to the market that there isn't enough content to allow a public test. Which is why I claimed some of the games will be in development for a few more YEARS at a minimum.


----

And let me rephrase that. Dark and Light has more opportunity to succeed than an MMO because it can be played on an e-sports level with 100 players per server. But it won't succeed because as I said: it's backed by a chinese company. 

Blueliner

What is your definition of succeed? In order to succeed one only has to accomplish what they set out to do, and in most cases that entails putting a product to market and making a profit. As such most of these games will succeed. If you define succeed as become as big as WoW, then likely none will succeed. If you define succeed as be released as a game you personally like and will play, then who here gives a damn.

MaxBacon

We have crowfall with promise, but  Rend is also around for Alpha this spring that is a game with a similar vibe so not sure.

Quizzical

WoeToTheVanquished said:

TyranusPrime said:

Prove wild accusations on products that are not even out yet wrong? Ok.. Will do.. All these statements appear to be opinion.. Opinion that likely will not be shared by every potential player.. BOOM.. mike drop.. all done..

So would you like to make a wager that 9/10 of the above games won't succeed?

Since there are 7 games listed, I would definitely bet that the number of successful ones won't be exactly 10% of them.

kitarad

Quizzical said:

WoeToTheVanquished said:

TyranusPrime said:

Prove wild accusations on products that are not even out yet wrong? Ok.. Will do.. All these statements appear to be opinion.. Opinion that likely will not be shared by every potential player.. BOOM.. mike drop.. all done..

So would you like to make a wager that 9/10 of the above games won't succeed?

Since there are 7 games listed, I would definitely bet that the number of successful ones won't be exactly 10% of them.

Apparently math is not his strong suit.

BizkitNL

WoeToTheVanquished said:

TyranusPrime said:

Prove wild accusations on products that are not even out yet wrong? Ok.. Will do.. All these statements appear to be opinion.. Opinion that likely will not be shared by every potential player.. BOOM.. mike drop.. all done..

So would you like to make a wager that 9/10 of the above games won't succeed?

What would be your definition of "success"?

WoeToTheVanquished

Jean-Luc_Picard said:

Considering how variable the definition of "success" is on those forums... I'm sure you have your own definition of it in order to make you "right" later on

I assumed the list of top games was a top 10. That's logical, yeah?

And success is when a game makes enough income to support itself - update for more content - and continues to make revenue for years down the road.

craftseeker

@WoeToTheVanquished

Your use of the phrases "I assumed" and "That's logical, yeah" together  indicate a complete lack of understanding of logic on your part. This together with your difficulty with mathematics ( nine out of ten of seven items) suggest that you really shouldn't be making wild assed guesses about the future of anything.

WoeToTheVanquished

craftseeker said:

@WoeToTheVanquished

Your use of the phrases "I assumed" and "That's logical, yeah" together  indicate a complete lack of understanding of logic on your part. This together with your difficulty with mathematics ( nine out of ten of seven items) suggest that you really shouldn't be making wild assed guesses about the future of anything.

You sure did conquer the MMO problem by pointing out that I have poor math skills and used terminology such as "I believe", "I feel", "I think" or "I assume". 

And you know what? Let's stop splitting hairs here. You know damn well as much as I do that MMOs today are absolute garbage. They aren't innovative, they don't last, and the technology still isn't available for hundreds of people to be fighting on a concurrent map. When was the last time you experienced 60+ fps in A POPULATED TOWN? Maybe during the days of Ultima Online. But now 2d gaming is a thing of the past.

Attack me all you want, but it won't change how the top games will fail. Because that's the predictable and piss poor MMO industry.

Quizzical

Jean-Luc_Picard said:

WoeToTheVanquished said:

TyranusPrime said:

Prove wild accusations on products that are not even out yet wrong? Ok.. Will do.. All these statements appear to be opinion.. Opinion that likely will not be shared by every potential player.. BOOM.. mike drop.. all done..

So would you like to make a wager that 9/10 of the above games won't succeed?

Considering how variable the definition of "success" is on those forums... I'm sure you have your own definition of it in order to make you "right" later on

That's usually not how wild predictions go.  Rather than redefining terms to make your predictions not entirely false, you just figure that people will forget about the ones that ended up missing while you can remind them of the occasional lucky guess that you made.

Neanderthal

Unfortunately, I mostly agree with Woes' assessment except that I feel he's too optimistic about Crowfall.  Crowfall is centered primarily around PvP and when has that ever worked out well for a MMO?

hatefulpeace

WoeToTheVanquished said:

prove me wrong.

Out of all the things I could use my time and energy for, proving any of this wrong doesn't equal entertaining, but I got time while I wait for 1000 rosie to make my z-95 space ship so. It can't be proven wrong to you, you came up with the opinion and opinions cannot be proven wrong to the person coming up with the opinion for the mass majority of people. There are only a rare few people who will be open to opinion changing, and by your emotional level of negative you aren't gonna be one of them. 

It is my opinion that all those games you mention suck ass and always will suck ass. They have no random resources, complex resource gathering, complex crafting system, and are not even out yet. 

ChildoftheShadows

Pantheon will not have insane population number, but it will do is serve that player base better than any game above it. The reason for this is the devs are creating a game they want to play and not catering to the masses, this results in a much, much better game for the people who want it.

Crowfall will be mildly successful, at least for a short time, because it's trying to cater to a different crowd. It's more MOBA than MMO by far.

The rest probably isn't too far off. AoC and ToA are pretty hefty in their goals, which isn't a bad thing if they have full time development teams working on them. Otherwise they'll take too long like you predict.

Neanderthal

ChildoftheShadows said:

Pantheon will not have insane population number, but it will do is serve that player base better than any game above it. The reason for this is the devs are creating a game they want to play and not catering to the masses, this results in a much, much better game for the people who want it.

All three or four hundred of them?

Iselin

Nyctelios said:

Kids these days... Only thinks something is a success because they can brag to their neighbor about how many players more they game has compared to his instead of freaking enjoying them.

If you think success is reaching top popularity you are not doing it for yourself and you don't know what success nor quality means.

Of course this does not mean those games will succeed - succeed in giving the experience they claim they'll deliver to the group of people who seek that said experience and getting profit. Because that is what success means.

Yeah by my count (since the OP said he's been reading these forums since he was 10 and his account is from 2013) he's now 14. Preoccupation with size is a big deal at that age... let's give him a break eh?

WoeToTheVanquished

Iselin said:

Yeah by my count (since the OP said he's been reading these forums since he was 10 and his account is from 2013) he's now 14. Preoccupation with size is a big deal at that age... let's give him a break eh?

I'm nearly 30 years old. My previous account got banned a good 5 years ago.

But all I'm hearing out of you is "OMG what did you say about my favorite game, kid?? meet me at the monkey bars after school and I'll kick ur butt u dumbface."