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Will MMORPGs make a comeback on the main scene anytime soon?

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  • WizardryWizardry Member LegendaryPosts: 19,332
    NOPE,i am quite certain i will be dead  before i see another AAA mmorpg,if we can say one ever existed.

    To me the letters AAA means you gave it your best effort.Omitting ideal content is not giving it your best shot.taking money,selling your product before it is finished is NOT giving it your best shot.Taking systems and designing them in a way that is very shallow or took less effort than a better design is again not your best effort.
    Working on a DLC or an expansion BEFORE making sure the product you sold customers is fully functional and fixed and COMPLETE within the realm of the genre you are selling is unacceptable.

    IMO a AAA mmorpg does not exist and likely MANY years before we actually see one.Every last one of these mmorpg's are missing 1/2/3++ needed systems that would only give us the bare bones minimum of a AAA template,then i would begin to ask they put some actual effort into the bare bones AAA design.

    I am not talking about weather i think a developer did a good job at delivering the bare minimum systems,i am talking about delivering them...period.Want me to name just one...ECO systems,HELLO  >>>RPG remember?Guess not,instead can we offer you zone completion rewards?..sigh such garbage .


    Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.

  • craftseekercraftseeker Member RarePosts: 1,740
    Kyleran said:
    Gorwe said:
    Gorwe said:
    H0urg1ass said:
    Yes.

    They will make a big comeback when the technology is right.

    What do I mean by that?  Currently, the killer for making MMO's is the gestation period.  It takes 5-6 years to produce an MMO that's still buggy and unfinished in areas.  Then, you don't even get to sell it for a box price because the community has come to expect MMO's to release as Free to Play.  All that work and effort and to top it off, you've got to rely on a cash shop, or selling "enhanced experiences" for your income.

    In the meantime, five new Call of Duty games, five new Assassin's Creed Games, five new FarCry Games... you get the point, have all been released.  Each of them earning hundreds of millions of dollars each off of the box price.

    So why put in the effort?  The ROI just isn't there anymore, and after the last couple of big releases crashed and burned hard, such as WildStar (That disaster alone scared away the majority of executives) no one is going to touch the genre.

    However!  A few big changes in technology could drastically reduce the design and build period of these games and a new MMO could be finished in 2 years instead of 5-6.

    One of these technologies is AI.  At some point, there will be world designing AI out there that can create interesting, believable worlds for us.  Once these AI have been trained with realistic topographies, vegetation dispersion models, animal population models, thousands of examples of villages, towns, cities, examples of realistic commerce routes,... etc, then they'll be able to generate in a matter of hours huge realistic worlds.

    The designers can then go back in and sculpt a few areas to meet specific demands, make some tweaks here and there, design some scripted encounters, and design a lot of assets that can be applied to the AI generated world.

    Given enough time and training, it won't just be the land masses that the AI designs, but entire communities with NPC's that go through believable daily routines.  Caravans that actually carry goods from one city to another.  Bandit camps that prey on lightly defended travelers.

    Essentially, you'll insert yourself into what will feel like a living breathing world.

    I think we're only looking at 8-10 years down the road before this happens.

    But until the technology progresses that severely reduces the gestation period of these games, then I can't see a renaissance of this genre any time soon.
    That's not "anytime soon", is it?
    No its when someone stumps up a truly stupendous amount of cash to build the AI that can generate that sort of world. And then another huge bucket of cash for the super computer to run that AI on while iy creates the world.


    After that it is all down hill to the gravy train. ;)
    That's "anytime soon" from the point ~10 years in the future, not from now. Everything else is a rationalization.
    No its not. There is at least five years in the development of that AI, and only Amazon has deep enough pockets to do it, and they aren't even going to start it in tt least the next couple of years.

    That anytime soon is sometime after 2035, not something to expect. Not even something to hope for at this point.
    You have overlooked several key components, a huge investment to upgrade the data transmission network between everything, a customer base willing to spend the necessary amount on equipmente to access this great new world for starters.

    All of the above has to be done on faith the investment will be worthwhile and coordinated between several industries which don't always well cooperate with each other. 

    My recommendation, invest your money in anti gravity research, rocket packs and flying cars, probably easier to pull off.

    ;)
    Actually this AI world generation thingy is theoretically possible, although unlikely to be financially viable. Anti-gravity is just plain ridiculous, flying cars are cruise missiles for terrorists, and rocket packs are just for oohs and aahs. 

    So if I was going to invest $500 million or so, I would go for the AI thingy, but I am obviously not.
    Gdemamiklash2def
  • cesmode8cesmode8 Member UncommonPosts: 431
    MMORPGS are dead.  Wow, GW2, ESO...the only three really worth mentioning and saying otherwise is kidding  yourself.  And even those three, well maybe one or two of them, are in steep decline.

    People dont want slow narrative grinds.  They want to log in for 20-30 minutes, have some intense action and be done.  That is in the form of BRs right now, and I think that is why the genre is so popular.  Because you can log in for a quick game or two, and out.  

    A lot of players, more players than not, do not have the time to sit there for 3 hours and raid, or to listen to a well developed story, or to grind out the best affixes on gear.  Quick chewable content to satiate.  That is all at the moment.


    PhryKyleran
  • AdamantineAdamantine Member RarePosts: 5,094
    Well, as long as all PC games are locked behind a police state fantasy called Steam that I will in no way ever tolerate on any of my computers and you otherwise actually have the completely absurd concept of games running on specialized, intentionally crippled hardware called "consoles", MMORPGs remain the only type of game I'll ever be interested in.

    I really start thinking of just making my own game instead because it doesnt look like the game market is going to change, ever. Also it doesnt look like there will be a valid successor to my favorite MMORPG, Vanguard, at any point in the future.

    In fact when I look at my gaming history the whole deal started on a high which was Baldurs Gate 2 and ever since only went downhill, until MMORPGs emerged and after a couple stinkers I came across Vanguard.

    I had so many ideas how to improve Baldurs Gate 2, but really no other game came even close to BG2, ever, again. Likewise Vanguard was disappointing in many areas, but again nothing comes close.

    Apparently all game developers want to do is dumbed down games that do not offer a real challenge, or only a twitch based challenge. That doesnt interest me the slightest.

  • lahnmirlahnmir Member LegendaryPosts: 5,053
    No.

    Every element that an MMORPG is made of has been done better in other genres. The social spaces we once craved for are now Facebook, Twitter, Instagram etc. 

    This genre will stay niche, never to become this big again. I wouldn’t say that is a bad thing though.

    /Cheers,
    Lahnmir
    Gdemamiklash2defKyleranMendelFalaax13
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    Kyleran on yours sincerely 


    'But there are many. You can play them entirely solo, and even offline. Also, you are wrong by default.'

    Ikcin in response to yours sincerely debating whether or not single-player offline MMOs exist...



    'This does not apply just to ED but SC or any other game. What they will get is Rebirth/X4, likely prettier but equally underwhelming and pointless. 

    It is incredibly difficult to design some meaningfull leg content that would fit a space ship game - simply because it is not a leg game.

    It is just huge resource waste....'

    Gdemami absolutely not being an armchair developer

  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    cesmode8 said:
    MMORPGS are dead.  Wow, GW2, ESO...the only three really worth mentioning and saying otherwise is kidding  yourself.  And even those three, well maybe one or two of them, are in steep decline.

    People dont want slow narrative grinds.  They want to log in for 20-30 minutes, have some intense action and be done.  That is in the form of BRs right now, and I think that is why the genre is so popular.  Because you can log in for a quick game or two, and out.  

    A lot of players, more players than not, do not have the time to sit there for 3 hours and raid, or to listen to a well developed story, or to grind out the best affixes on gear.  Quick chewable content to satiate.  That is all at the moment.


    While i agree that ESO is one of the three, i would say that BDO and FFXIV:ARR are more likely to be the other 2, GW2 is not in a good place, and WoW, Activision has done a pretty good job of killing, it might not be dead yet, but its a game in decline, as is GW2, the only games with a modicum of growth imo are ESO, BDO & FFXIV:ARR. Not that there aren't a bunch of smaller games that are doing okay, there are, but if your talking about millions of players, those are the main 3 imo. ;)
    klash2defKyleran
  • Vermillion_RaventhalVermillion_Raventhal Member EpicPosts: 4,198
    I doubt anytime soon.  Even if one of the indie games come out super successful or there is a secret super MMORPG in development... the development cycle means maybe a decade out.  Even then it will likely follow a trend of more of the same.

    The best thing that could happen is MMORPG maker that allows small teams and fans to create MMORPG easily like Neverwinter Nights had.
  • GaladournGaladourn Member RarePosts: 1,813
    Classic is coming...
  • Vermillion_RaventhalVermillion_Raventhal Member EpicPosts: 4,198
    DMKano said:
    Once we can get close to the plug into the "matrix" like experience like the movie - yes.

    I don't think anyone is excited at this point to go run for 10min kill 10 rats then run back for 10min to NPC only to get a rusty spoon.

    Seriously - the fact that MMORPG mechanics haven't changed much for 20 years speaks volumes why the genre is dead.

    Kind of hard to get excited about doing the same damn thing many of us have been doing since 1998 - the only thing that changes is graphics, lore and text - but what you actually do in MMORPGs is very much the same thing - boring worlds with boring NPCs asking you to do boring repetitive stuff.

    No thanks.


    You don't even need MMORPG to do what MMORPG do.  People get mad at me for saying it but those themepark games are wasted resources.  If peer to peer coop games like Destiny were actually high fantasy you wouldn't have much difference from the current MMORPG.

    Sadly man players/developers/investors were locked into a mode that either grinding Mobs in groups or being task masters with an end game most players don't like is end all of MMORPG.  Then spent the second half of the era undermining itself to avoid boring gameplay.
    Steelhelm
  • klash2defklash2def Member EpicPosts: 1,949
    edited February 2019
    Not even future tech can save MMORPGS. I mean shit we are in 2019 what makes you think that game concepts (kill 10 pigs to get a leather glove) from 2001 are going to suddenly flourish in 2025? LOL you are not going to be in the matrix trying to kill ten rats for a gun clip... Its over. 

    If it does return it def wont be anytime soon. Not AAA...Very soon we are going to see a bunch of those indie mmo games in development either, release and fail because of lack of interest OR cancel during development. The market just isn't there anymore. Gaming has moved on from the MMORPG but as I always say we are going to see elements of it in the Marketplace. EX Destiny/Anthem/Division having raids etc. MMORPG is part of the sandwich now its not the sandwich. 

    I've actually said this a lot  over the years here and people told me to shut up. The reality is nothing lasts forever but everything can evolve. I personally believe MMORPGs died a few years ago around 13-14 when Destiny came out. The massive success of that game changed the course of MMOs forever imo. It showed people how to MMO without being a mmorpg. Consolidated the MMO experience. Later the success of Fortnight and the BR scene sealed the deal. Its done. The money goes where the winners are. MMO-lites and BR games have the multiplayer money. 

    I'm waiting for someone to create the high fantasy version of Destiny/Anthem/Division. I think blizzard has the power to jump in that ring with the next Diablo but it's going to require BIG changes like making it a 3rd person game for starters. That could be something. The top down look is very outdated. People today want to see that skin or gear they earned up close and personal. They want intense, fast action and sick rewards for that action.

    Maybe what I want is never happening but that's my two cents. 

    Another spicy take: WoW is going true F2P soon with a item cash shop. I'm not talking mounts, i'm talking Thunderfury skins for 20.00 cash shop. 
    Falaax13
    "Beliefs don't change facts. Facts, if you're reasonable, should change your beliefs."


    "The Society that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting by fools."



     
    Currently: Games Audio Engineer, you didn't hear what I heard, you heard what I wanted you to hear. 


  • anemoanemo Member RarePosts: 1,903
    Inevitably, yes.  But in the worst way .

    Personally I think as competition increases between live services, they'll become closer and closer to MMORPGs.

    Which will be terrible since leveling will exist to leverage addiction.  Items will exist for dopamine rushes.  And cash shops will reign supreme. 

    Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent.

    "At one point technology meant making tech that could get to the moon, now it means making tech that could get you a taxi."

  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 44,057
    klash2def said:
    Not even future tech can save MMORPGS. I mean shit we are in 2019 what makes you think that game concepts (kill 10 pigs to get a leather glove) from 2001 are going to suddenly flourish in 2025? LOL you are not going to be in the matrix trying to kill ten rats for a gun clip... Its over. 

    If it does return it def wont be anytime soon. Not AAA...Very soon we are going to see a bunch of those indie mmo games in development either, release and fail because of lack of interest OR cancel during development. The market just isn't there anymore. Gaming has moved on from the MMORPG but as I always say we are going to see elements of it in the Marketplace. EX Destiny/Anthem/Division having raids etc. MMORPG is part of the sandwich now its not the sandwich. 

    I've actually said this a lot  over the years here and people told me to shut up. The reality is nothing lasts forever but everything can evolve. I personally believe MMORPGs died a few years ago around 13-14 when Destiny came out. The massive success of that game changed the course of MMOs forever imo. It showed people how to MMO without being a mmorpg. Consolidated the MMO experience. Later the success of Fortnight and the BR scene sealed the deal. Its done. The money goes where the winners are. MMO-lites and BR games have the multiplayer money. 

    I'm waiting for someone to create the high fantasy version of Destiny/Anthem/Division. I think blizzard has the power to jump in that ring with the next Diablo but it's going to require BIG changes like making it a 3rd person game for starters. That could be something. The top down look is very outdated. People today want to see that skin or gear they earned up close and personal. They want intense, fast action and sick rewards for that action.

    Maybe what I want is never happening but that's my two cents. 

    Another spicy take: WoW is going true F2P soon with a item cash shop. I'm not talking mounts, i'm talking Thunderfury skins for 20.00 cash shop. 
    I disagree,  IMO survival games is where most MMORPG refugees went, and they have proven to be quite popular despite the fact a AAA one has yet to be released.


    klash2def

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  • klash2defklash2def Member EpicPosts: 1,949
    edited February 2019
    Kyleran said:
    klash2def said:
    Not even future tech can save MMORPGS. I mean shit we are in 2019 what makes you think that game concepts (kill 10 pigs to get a leather glove) from 2001 are going to suddenly flourish in 2025? LOL you are not going to be in the matrix trying to kill ten rats for a gun clip... Its over. 

    If it does return it def wont be anytime soon. Not AAA...Very soon we are going to see a bunch of those indie mmo games in development either, release and fail because of lack of interest OR cancel during development. The market just isn't there anymore. Gaming has moved on from the MMORPG but as I always say we are going to see elements of it in the Marketplace. EX Destiny/Anthem/Division having raids etc. MMORPG is part of the sandwich now its not the sandwich. 

    I've actually said this a lot  over the years here and people told me to shut up. The reality is nothing lasts forever but everything can evolve. I personally believe MMORPGs died a few years ago around 13-14 when Destiny came out. The massive success of that game changed the course of MMOs forever imo. It showed people how to MMO without being a mmorpg. Consolidated the MMO experience. Later the success of Fortnight and the BR scene sealed the deal. Its done. The money goes where the winners are. MMO-lites and BR games have the multiplayer money. 

    I'm waiting for someone to create the high fantasy version of Destiny/Anthem/Division. I think blizzard has the power to jump in that ring with the next Diablo but it's going to require BIG changes like making it a 3rd person game for starters. That could be something. The top down look is very outdated. People today want to see that skin or gear they earned up close and personal. They want intense, fast action and sick rewards for that action.

    Maybe what I want is never happening but that's my two cents. 

    Another spicy take: WoW is going true F2P soon with a item cash shop. I'm not talking mounts, i'm talking Thunderfury skins for 20.00 cash shop. 
    I disagree,  IMO survival games is where most MMORPG refugees went, and they have proven to be quite popular despite the fact a AAA one has yet to be released.


    I agree but I wasn't saying MMORPG refugees went to MMO-Lites or BR, never mentioned refugees tbh..I'm saying those games took over the multiplayer space. New people who have never played wow or any mmorpg understanding what a raid is, what a dungeon is, tier gear, what a heroic is, what a daily is.. that's what i'm talking about. 
    "Beliefs don't change facts. Facts, if you're reasonable, should change your beliefs."


    "The Society that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting by fools."



     
    Currently: Games Audio Engineer, you didn't hear what I heard, you heard what I wanted you to hear. 


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  • Falaax13Falaax13 Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 3
    edited February 2019
    cesmode8 said:
    MMORPGS are dead.  Wow, GW2, ESO...the only three really worth mentioning and saying otherwise is kidding  yourself.  And even those three, well maybe one or two of them, are in steep decline.


    You forgot OSRS, which has more players than GW2 and ESO combined. But yeah, I guess we can all agree that the genre as a whole has been in a slump for the past ten years or so. What do you guys think are the new ''cool'' genres?

  • Falaax13Falaax13 Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 3
    edited February 2019
    but if your talking about millions of players, those are the main 3

    The ''big three'' according to MMO-population:
    1- WoW 1,968,425 players
    2- OSRS 1,663,388 players
    3- FFXIV 1,003,652 players

    I think we're very far from the populations there once was in the golden era.
    Kyleran
  • SovrathSovrath Member LegendaryPosts: 32,936
    Well, as long as all PC games are locked behind a police state fantasy called Steam that I will in no way ever tolerate on any of my computers and you otherwise actually have the completely absurd concept of games running on specialized, intentionally crippled hardware called "consoles", MMORPGs remain the only type of game I'll ever be interested in.


    It must be a herculean task to even get up in the morning ... :#
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  • AmatheAmathe Member LegendaryPosts: 7,630
    I think one data point is the Curt Schilling matter. Here was a guy who is living my dream - to have lots of money and invest it in a mmorpg that would reflect what he felt was an awesome game.

    And I have no reason to doubt that it would have been a great game, except for who knows what caused the wheels to come off. 

    The point being that even if you could design your own Pygmalion-like mmo using your own funds, these damned things can still tank on you. Which is part of why companies are scared to make more.
    klash2defMendel

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  • TheDarkrayneTheDarkrayne Member EpicPosts: 5,297
    I think it all boils down to the upcoming Lord of the Rings MMO. We don't know enough about it really but if it's a big success it could put MMOs on the map again. Since it's probably going to be launching around the same time as the new TV show, interest should be high. Hopefully it's actually an MMORPG.
    I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
  • EthabusEthabus Member UncommonPosts: 3
    As much as I'd like to see MMOs make a huge comeback I don't see it happening. 

    It takes a huge amount of money to make MMOs. And right now the industry as a whole doesn't seem healthy enough for a publisher to take a chance. There have been so many layoffs by major companies already I don't see who's available to make the next big MMO.

    Let's say someone does make a good MMO and it does very well. Other publishers see this and decide to make their own. Because the development cycle of MMOs is so long it would take them years to get something out the door to compete.

    So I think we'll get some good MMOs from time to time that are worth playing. But I don't think we'll ever see a time where there are multiple, competing MMOs that are actually all able to make money at the same time.
  • RungarRungar Member RarePosts: 1,132
    Raidculture killed mmo's. Games like dark age of camelot, guild wars 2 and even elder scrolls online tried to resist  to some degree but failed. So Everquest both launched mmos and sealed their fate at the same time.  
    Margrave
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  • KabulozoKabulozo Member RarePosts: 932
    ikcin said:
    The problem with the MMORPGs is that RPG part is often solo, so there is internal conflict with the MMO part. And the result are broken pointless games. The solution is simple, make the RPG multiplayer.
    The original "table RPGs" are meant to be played in group. And the recent failures of Anthem and Fallout 76 just teach us that electronic "multiplayer RPG" genre is also doomed.
  • Cybersig211Cybersig211 Member UncommonPosts: 174
    No.  MMORPG became too large and expensive to make catered to a niche crowd without a large famed IP to back it.  MMORPG's tried to do too much to appeal to enough people to make their development worth it, and that was with the dream it would reach WOW levels, which none did.

    None of the titans of development/design from the first gen classics were able to recreate that magic.  Times changed and what made MMORPGS so fun and unique is now mundane and standard...i mean back then just interacting with someone else on your screen was cool.

    Anyone who remembers being here 2006-2010 remembers that it became a pissing match with some of these games that ended up failing, that tried to make MMORPGS for people do didnt like RPG games...dumbing down/watering down ect the genre.  A lot of the golden age mmorpgs were populated by people who just didnt like RPG games and MMORPGS, but it was the online experience and a small aspect of the MMORPG that kept them playing.  Once online was the norm and other game types came out they left and never came back.  The real MMORPG community across all games was too small to support lots of new AAA games, which is why WOW/ESO/FFXIV and a few others still live, it supports the MMORPG community who like MMORPG games.  Not much room to compete with IP titans like the survivors.  Not enough to warrant a huge decade long investment.

    Its dead jim.  Find a survivor of the golden age, pick a new game type, or watch the kickstarter niche games fail while investing for no return.  Choice is yours.  Were not going to see a AAA mmorpg for a VERY long time, if ever again.
  • HatefullHatefull Member EpicPosts: 2,503
    Kabulozo said:
    ikcin said:
    The problem with the MMORPGs is that RPG part is often solo, so there is internal conflict with the MMO part. And the result are broken pointless games. The solution is simple, make the RPG multiplayer.
    The original "table RPGs" are meant to be played in group. And the recent failures of Anthem and Fallout 76 just teach us that electronic "multiplayer RPG" genre is also doomed.
    Anthem is called an Action RPG, but as with most action RPG's, the only RPG is on you. FO76, yeah didn't touch it, so I won't speak to that.

    To the point of the thread, I doubt very much the genre will make a comeback. As was pointed out earlier in this thread most of the "ohhh neato" factor has burned away and what we are left with now is the same tired old systems rehashed in different ways.

    There are some IP's out there that I think would make great MMO's but I doubt very much there is a developer out there that would want to tackle the job, had the nuts to make the title big enough (think massive size in-game) polished, and with enough innovation to make it a success.
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  • BluelinerBlueliner Member UncommonPosts: 185
    Short answer? No

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