“First AAA Game To REQUIRE Ray Tracing GPU Will Ship In 2023,” Says Nvidia Scientist

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“First AAA Game To REQUIRE Ray Tracing GPU Will Ship In 2023,” Says Nvidia Scientist

In a tweet (via PC Gamer), Distinguished Scientist for Nvidia, Morgan McGuire predicted that the first AAA game to require a ray tracing GPU will ship in 2023.

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achmede

I hope they will fix 2080 Ti problems by that time.

My 2080 Ti died few days ago.
A 1k € grahpic card should not have such issues. I ask myself what was Nvidia thinking, if they did at all ...

laserit

First 3D professional card I had was in 1992 from Vermont Microsystems

First 3d gaming card I had was a 3DFX Voodoo, I'm pretty sure it was before 1999

Itzme123

This reminds me of DX12 adoption. All we heard for a year was how great dx12 was going to be.

So by 2023 i will be expected to upgrade for a lighting solution I don't really care about? Better be some fancy game that blows my mind.

Just sounds like posturing to me. Try to convince the industry it needs ray tracing so everyone's forced into an upgrade. Meanwhile the industry will continue to churn out garbage filled with micros except with expensive hardware lighting.

Tiller

If all you play is MMOs by then I assume all we will have are Korean MMOs, they might upgrade to Unreal Engine 4 by then, but you don't need ray tracing for that.

Vrika

laserit said:

First 3D professional card I had was in 1992 from Vermont Microsystems

First 3d gaming card I had was a 3DFX Voodoo, I'm pretty sure it was before 1999

I think that GeForce 256 was first for shifting some workloads from CPU to GPU, but there were dedicated GPUs before that.

This is just NVidia doing PR. If they employ 99 scientists who think it's more than 10 years before any game requiring ray tracing and one who thinks it's 5 years, then NVidia will have one scientist saying 5 years while others remain quiet.

Spriggen1337

Raytracing is just a gimmick really!
Is it needed NO
Is it pretty MAYBE
Does it need to be forced down our throats apparently YES
The more hardware options they keep throwing down our necks the more expensive gaming is gonna get... To the point that making a game will cost the consumer 2x or more what games cost now this goes doubly for hardware sales and consoles too

Gyva02

nawww, I'm sure it'll be 18 months after 2023

Vrika

Afaik the computer for Tennis for Two couldn't run Spacewar, Atari 800 couldn't run NES games, and Geforce 256 couldn't run Doom 3.

What does that promise to Turing's ability to run the ray-traced game they predict will come out in 2023?

wanderica

Of course he said that. He's an Nvidia employed scientist. I remain skeptical. If someone doesn't manage to provide ray tracing at 60fps 1080p for under $300, then it most certainly will NOT be "required."

rojoArcueid

To require? meaning if you don't have one you can't play the game?

Theres a big difference between a computer that can't run a game because hardware is too old, and a computer that can't run a game because its locked behind a visual effects feature. But what do i know...

Relampago

3dfx Voodoo 1996, NVidia NV1 (oh how they like to forget their own histroy) which was a flop 1997 , the NVidia Riva 128 (which i used my hard earned work money for, It was awesome) 1998, they coined the term GPU with the 256 in 1999, same year as the ATI Rage Fury Maxx. As for the statement they are playing up raytacing too hard, it is not that large a differentiator. The GPU market has been stagnant and this is just marketing at this point.

Amathe

Because the rocket sled to game success is to make people have to buy expensive new hardware to play it.

*Gives side eye to Vanguard*

Wizardry

Devs don't know what AAA is so how the heck would an Nvidia employee know what AAA is?

Personally i feel we do not need raytracing at all,we need better games and this tech plus Nvidia is NOT going to get devs to make better games.I mean geesh if they are not willing to put in the effort right now,what makes Nvidia think they will be willing to put in MORE effort with lighting and the games a few years from now.
I say Bull,not happening,besides this is a blanket statement,tell me what game is going to be AAA then i can weigh in from there.

Then i look at another factor that drives the gaming market>>>$$$ and popularity.Wow is the most successful mmorpg,it has horrible lighting,horrible graphics,so what do devs care about raytracing or better lighting,they DON'T.

I have already seen many Korean games try to utilize the best lighting it can on your character but the rest of the game is crap.Do i care about sitting in a character creation screen,not one bit, i care about the game and what it offers me.

Bottom line,i would rather play some older games on the same PC/hardware and not give Nvidia or anyone anymore money.I am not in a rush to spend money foolishly like all those did that bought into the LOL VR hype...again.

Wizardry

WE will not see AAA until VR becomes a true reality AND some developer has loads of money and time to risk on a great game.This VR will utilize full body function/support,meaning we control our every character move via some VR system and not via the KB/mouse.Our characters will be a full realization of ourselves and the world fully interactive.Then all the systems that make up the game need to be top quality,full of depth like a AAA design is expected to be.

My prediction,i will no longer be on this Earth,likely at least 15-20 more years.So for the next 19 or so years,enjoy wasting money on year by year small increments the GPU and CPU manufacturer's want to sell you so they can get rich.

Mendel

You have to love how even scientists will simply ignore advancements that weren't made by their company.

Yes, I bought an nVidia GeForce 256 card in 1999 (to run EQ1).  That wasn't the first dedicated GPU I owned.  The first GPU I know of was in the Mindset computer in 1984-5.  It was a beautiful machine, an MS-DOS machine with a nice 80186 processor.  It came packaged with GW-Basic, and was graphically far ahead of the IBM machines.  However, it couldn't run 1-2-3, which for a computer in 1985, was pretty much a death sentence.

The timeline should have suggested that the GeForce 256 was the first card from nVidia, or something to that nature, rather than it being the first GPU.

acidblood

To be fair I wouldn't be surprised if there was a AAA game that required ray tracing by 2023... But like every other game that has required specific hardware / software (e.g. DX10, DX12) it will sell poorly.

Utinni

achmede said:

I hope they will fix 2080 Ti problems by that time.



My 2080 Ti died few days ago.

A 1k € grahpic card should not have such issues.

I ask myself what was Nvidia thinking, if they did at all ...

Thats the risk you take whenever you buy new tech.

gervaise1

Key word: predicted.

The only way a company is going to produce an RT only AAA game for release in 2023 is if NVidia (or AMD) pay them to do so.

If you work backwards:
a) 2023 release - lets say fall - so development start fall 2021 at the latest.
b)So business case, getting costs, making sure enough cards will have been sold - mid 2021. Again at the latest.
c) Whilst developers will assume further sales during development they will want to see evidence of adoption before they OK the expenditure of huge costs.
d) So "enough" RT cards will have to have been sold by c. start 2021. And remember this is assuming 2 years development and an end 2023 launch.

And at this moment in time there is nothing to suggest that a cheap, RT capable card will be launched in the next 12 months. A card so wonderful that people rush out and buy it in their millions causing developers to say: gee we have to make an RT only game.

So: predicted as in wishful thinking.

(A game that can use RT by then - sure).

Quizzical

The Virtual Boy launched in 1995, and 24 years later, VR still isn't common.

gervaise1

NVidia and AMD have both been selling premium price RT cards to industry for decades.

To remain competitive against less capable but cheaper cpus - which can do the calcs by sheer brute force - they have had to continue development and reducing prices.

Combining the industry development costs with gaming development costs is  sound strategy.

Attempting to get gamers to buy RT cards - and to get developers to make games that can only run on RT cards - is also sound strategy since the discrete gpu market is itself under threat from on-board gpus. (Remember sound cards?)


An RT only game though?

Maybe - and I am blue skying here! -

would it be possible for Disney say, probably Disney, to take the graphics / special effects used in an Avengers film say - which will use RT - to produce a game. So one that starts life as an RT product rather than one that has to be tweaked to give an RT option. (Not necessarily made by Disney just instigated by them).

I don't know. Just trying to see how they could get an RT only game. For a game that can be run on an on-board gpu but has an RT option if you have a graphics card ..... that is not what NVidia want. (AMD might be OK with that since they have decent on-board gpus).

Eldrach

Games often take 4-5 years to develop (AAA), this means that the game in mention is under development now..and given how the current gen nvidia cards has failed to convince -anyone- that raytracing is what the industry needs, i highly doubt any dev. will make that a requirement for the next 5-6 years

lahnmir

Quizzical said:

The Virtual Boy launched in 1995, and 24 years later, VR still isn't common.

And ray tracing is a fair bit older then that even.

With dedicated hardware things might move a bit faster but 2023 is only going to happen if Nvidia funds said game. I would go with 2028 and up looking at hardware refresh rates and current “quality” of these cards when it comes to ray tracing. A mate of mine was already using ray tracing on his Nintendo DS all those years back...

/Cheers,
Lahnmir

skeaser

Utinni said:

achmede said:

I hope they will fix 2080 Ti problems by that time.



My 2080 Ti died few days ago.

A 1k € grahpic card should not have such issues.

I ask myself what was Nvidia thinking, if they did at all ...

Thats the risk you take whenever you buy new tech anything.

FTFY

Iselin

Zarine7

Good luck with that. It's terrible the way it is, and the new "super" cards that were supposed to be $100 cheaper are $100 more... and also not available