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Do you think we will get a new Western AAA MMORPG before 2030?

Serious question. Seems like MMORPG take 6 or more years to develop.  If we are lucky maybe one of the kickstarter MMORPG will be released in the next 4 years and is huge.  The slow place and I don't think many have the potential to be huge. 

My opinion of course is that Age of Creation is likely the only one that may have mass appeal.  This is not to say any of the others won't be successful but I don't see any exploding onto the scene.  

So theoretically if there is no MMORPG in development by 2003 we likely would not see a new AAA MMORPG in the 20s.
time007Gdemami
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Comments

  • TheDarkrayneTheDarkrayne Member EpicPosts: 5,297
    edited August 2019
    MMOs are likely to have a rise again at some point. New generations come in and want to be different from the last few generations to make their mark.. usually by picking up trends from before they born. Happens with fashion, slang, music, pop culture, etc. It'll cycle back around eventually.
    HatefullMrMelGibsonWaan
    I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
  • AlbatroesAlbatroes Member LegendaryPosts: 7,671
    Outside of SE, probably wont see one. Only Blizzard would do one is if they honestly aren't apart of Activision somehow. But hey, maybe there will be a new AAA company or something. Feels like Disney is trying to branch into everything over the past decade.
  • AAAMEOWAAAMEOW Member RarePosts: 1,617
    Star Citizen dont' look like it'll be finish by 2030...

    It depend by the definition of AAA mmorpg.  I heard ash of creation team size is pretty big.  Here is a link on it https://www.bleedingcool.com/2018/07/03/ashes-of-creation-largest-mmos-production/

    Amazon studio are making games.  Not sure how large their budget is.
  • AlBQuirkyAlBQuirky Member EpicPosts: 7,432
    edited August 2019
    City of Titans has a "hope" of beta testing in 2020. Whether that happens or not, or even if it launches at all, let alone prior to 2030, has yet to be seen.

    Otherwise, I'm doubtful ;)

    [EDIT]
    I guess I glossed over the TRIPLE A part. City of Titans is far from a AAA developer/publisher as it was a Kickstarter started by loyal CoH fans.
    Post edited by AlBQuirky on
    MrMelGibson

    - Al

    Personally the only modern MMORPG trend that annoys me is the idea that MMOs need to be designed in a way to attract people who don't actually like MMOs. Which to me makes about as much sense as someone trying to figure out a way to get vegetarians to eat at their steakhouse.
    - FARGIN_WAR


  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 44,057
    The more important question (at least for me) is when and if a new western made MMORPG is finally released, will I even be alive to play it.

    Racing the dead pool here folks.

     :# 
    AlBQuirkyHatefullAsheramDrunkWolfdragonlee66MrMelGibsonMendelSteelhelm[Deleted User]Azaron_Nightblade

    "True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde 

    "I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant

    Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm

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  • delete5230delete5230 Member EpicPosts: 7,081
    IF we do it will be garbage like the last several.

     
    Tokken
  • someforumguysomeforumguy Member RarePosts: 4,088
    edited August 2019
    I don't see it happening before that time for two reasons:

    - Atm the AAA online market is aiming for micro transactions and other online monetizable 'services'. To utilize this, there is no need for a full featured MMORPG game. This is what the shareholders from the big AAA companies want atm.

    - State of the art graphics are becoming a problem for developers. The man hours needed to create top 3d graphics keep rising. This means that it will be at the cost of other features in a game, if a company wants to keep development time reasonable. You can see this with the latest installments for several AAA franchises. Where games release far from ready because of this.

    Both these tie into each other. State of the art 3d (which is required to be accepted by mainstream gamer masses) is becoming too costly to combine with a full MMORPG set of features.

    You can see this happening with the smaller companies that are trying to develop a MMORPG. These companies focus on gameplay and features first, graphics second. Because they simply don't have the money to do all. And just look at how the mainstream community responds to 3d graphics that are not comparable to the latest AAA games. Those Indie MMORPG's will be niche at best because of this unfortunately.

    If you want to release a 3d game that will be accepted by mainstream community (the big numbers) you need state of the art 3d graphics. 

    There is one company atm that is trying to go for broke. Full scale MMORPG with state of the art 3d included. Just look at their development time and where they are at atm. A major public AAA company will never go for this. Their shareholders don't want 10 years development time.
    AlBQuirkyGdemami
  • AAAMEOWAAAMEOW Member RarePosts: 1,617
    I dont' know what the definition of AAA mmorpg is.  I remember reading article games like EQ and DAOC only have a few million dollar budget.  People probably consider that AAA mmorpg back in the days.

    Now you have kickstarter mmorpg with far higher budget.  Camelot Unchained should have far higher budget than DAOC, not sure if people consider that AAA.
    GdemamiAlBQuirky
  • goboygogoboygo Member RarePosts: 2,141
    Sure but unless its F2P with casino hooks and micro transactions no.   Younger generations, which are now solely the target market for AAA developers, are now basically programmed to believe all game should be free regardless of the quality, and they will just work around the casino mechanics and obvious paths that lead them to the cash shop when they can.

    Its like growing up in an abusive household, you just think its normal and learn how to make it work.  There are a couple of cool places you can go in your house where its safe and fun, and you just learn to avoid the places that prey on you.
  • time007time007 Member UncommonPosts: 1,062
    edited August 2019
    Serious question. Seems like MMORPG take 6 or more years to develop.  If we are lucky maybe one of the kickstarter MMORPG will be released in the next 4 years and is huge.  The slow place and I don't think many have the potential to be huge. 

    My opinion of course is that Age of Creation is likely the only one that may have mass appeal.  This is not to say any of the others won't be successful but I don't see any exploding onto the scene.  

    So theoretically if there is no MMORPG in development by 2003 we likely would not see a new AAA MMORPG in the 20s.
    Camelot Unchained should be out in the next 2 years or so.  They have been in development a while because about halfway into their development cycle they realized the gaming engine they were using wouldnt allow for 500+ players without major lag and problems, so they had to create their own engine from scratch.  But keep an eye on that one, it should be out by 2021.  

    Also keep an eye out on Crowfall. Its a Western MMO, not sure if its American, but that one should be out around 2021 as well.  .

    But I feel the same way as you, that for the past few years there has been nothing AAA of note.  Just some Asian F2P cash shop games and well on the up side alot of the existing games had expansions.  But yeah an expansion on games released in 2013 and 2015 is kinda lame compared to a brand new AAA MMO imho.  So we have definitely had a drought

    IMPORTANT:  Please keep all replies to my posts about GAMING.  Please no negative or backhanded comments directed at me personally.  If you are going to post a reply that includes how you feel about me, please don't bother replying & just ignore my post instead.  I'm on this forum to talk about GAMING.  Thank you.
  • delete5230delete5230 Member EpicPosts: 7,081
    DMKano said:
    no - at least not a traditional MMORPG (like EQ1/DAoC/AC/SWG...). The most likely possibility is that we will never see another AAA MMORPG made period.

    Some weird hybrid that has some mmorpg elements - yes - crap like Amazon's New World etc... I don't consider those games MMORPGs

    I don't believe a new AAA tradional MMORPG will ever be made again

    Theirs always a chance for a new company to show itself in the future.

    Businesses are being born all the time. 

    Visionary Realms should be a potential company, but they seem to procrastinate on their projects where they wouldn't be profitable..... Good example of potential that will just miss the mark.   
  • TokkenTokken Member EpicPosts: 3,649
    edited August 2019
    Man, this thread is so depressing, just like the AAA MMORPG market.    I can't believe we've seen so little since WOW.   :'(  Makes we want to invest in anything that is possible before 2030.  I'm desperate (I know that is a bad thing).

    Proud MMORPG.com member since March 2004!  Make PvE GREAT Again!

  • endsfateendsfate Newbie CommonPosts: 2
    edited August 2019

    Western AAA MMORPG two come to mind. New World by Amazon still in alpha and the New Lord Of The Rings also by Amazon



  • AsheramAsheram Member EpicPosts: 5,078
    I read Western AAA mmorpg and cowboys and indians came to mind.  :'(
  • TokkenTokken Member EpicPosts: 3,649
    edited August 2019
    endsfate said:

    Western AAA MMORPG two come to mind. New World by Amazon still in alpha and the New Lord Of The Rings also by Amazon



    we'll see if Amazon can produce?  No track record yet.
    Kyleran

    Proud MMORPG.com member since March 2004!  Make PvE GREAT Again!

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,857
    I would think that everyone is watching what happens to Classic WoW. I think that's going to be a litmus test for the market,

    Clearly, if it does well and stays consistently popular, then we can infer that it was the failure of the developers over the last decade who couldn't figure out what players would subscribe to. If it fizzles and flops, we will infer that there just isn't a good enough desire from players and there will probably be nothing to follow.

    Personally, I don't think this is a very accurate test, but I think that regardless, it will be THE test that decides if AAA MMORPGs are viable in the West or if they are a thing of the past like 1st person puzzle solvers (like Myst).
    cheyaneKyleranhelot
  • anemoanemo Member RarePosts: 1,903
    Yes, but you'll be better off not bothering with them.

    Essentially my theory is that as competition in the live service space heats up, companies will be forced to be more MMO like.   With social and guilding features, as another reason for players to stick around.  Guild wide benefits to being a whale/dolphin spender/ing to normalize in game shop spend.   And the fact that a publisher spinning a game as an MMORPG makes it easier to spin it as more feature-ful than competitors.

    You can see this as Destiny was spun out of their publisher, the first they did was call themselves an MMORPG.   Anthem had last minute changes to add a multiplayer social hub as well.

    ___ 

    Though for smaller MMOs you'll have opportunity to have fun.

    Though we did have Worlds Adrift come and go.   It was a great to play game early weekend mornings when PvPs and Streamers were asleep.  And had an interesting world with fun ship building.

    Then I'm going to be paying attention to Starbase.   Depending on which stupid decisions they make for PvP it could be great  (it doesn't matter which decisions they make they'll be the wrong ones to over half the player base).  https://store.steampowered.com/app/454120/Starbase/

    Crowfall is "getting there".

    And we have a dozen half/quarter hopes like StarCitizen and Chronicles of Elyria. 

    Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent.

    "At one point technology meant making tech that could get to the moon, now it means making tech that could get you a taxi."

  • TruvidiennTruvidienn Member UncommonPosts: 347
    You also have Zenimax Studios working on another MMO.
  • Viper482Viper482 Member LegendaryPosts: 4,101
    I don't think people realize exactly how long 10 years is when speaking of games. Warhammer Online and Wrath of the Lich King barely released 10 years ago. We didn't have ESO or FFXIV 10 years ago. We were only on the 2nd Assassin's Creed close to 10 years ago lol. 


    [Deleted User]Tokken
    Make MMORPG's Great Again!
  • ScotScot Member LegendaryPosts: 24,427
    You also have Zenimax Studios working on another MMO.
    Welcome to the forums! :)
    Tokken
  • ScotScot Member LegendaryPosts: 24,427
    Unlikely, MMOs would have to be as popular as they were back in the day when they weren't made as well as they are today...hmm. :)

    The gaming landscape has changed and even if we had the old/new school hybrid MMOs that I think would do better than the current batch, no MMO is going to be a safe enough bet for such big bucks as a AAA.
    Mendel
  • DrunkWolfDrunkWolf Member RarePosts: 1,701
    edited August 2019
    by 2030 vanilla wow will be releasing for the 3rd time. and everybody cant wait because the MMO genre is still dead.

    SC is about 5 years from closed beta

    and the list of top MMOs coming out " soon " still hasnt changed.
    AlBQuirkyGroqstrongRich84iixviiiixKyleran
  • TokkenTokken Member EpicPosts: 3,649
    WOW3 and EQ3 will be OUT before 2030!!  My insane prediction. LOL

    Proud MMORPG.com member since March 2004!  Make PvE GREAT Again!

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,499
    Yes, but there will be people who insist that it's not Western, not AAA, and/or not an MMORPG.
    [Deleted User]AlBQuirkyGdemamiAAAMEOWRich84[Deleted User]
  • TamanousTamanous Member RarePosts: 3,030
    edited August 2019
    The original MMORPGs that launched the genre were not AAA. AAA MMORPGs are from major companies copying successful indie games. We'll get a AAA version after an indie company takes the risks to innovate and finds a measure of success through capturing a dedicate, growing audience.

    When we see this occur, we'll get our AAA clone of the new format. AAA companies do not innovate.
    AlBQuirky[Deleted User]

    You stay sassy!

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