Serious question. Seems like MMORPG take 6 or more years to develop. If we are lucky maybe one of the kickstarter MMORPG will be released in the next 4 years and is huge. The slow place and I don't think many have the potential to be huge.
My opinion of course is that Age of Creation is likely the only one that may have mass appeal. This is not to say any of the others won't be successful but I don't see any exploding onto the scene.
So theoretically if there is no MMORPG in development by 2003 we likely would not see a new AAA MMORPG in the 20s.
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It depend by the definition of AAA mmorpg. I heard ash of creation team size is pretty big. Here is a link on it https://www.bleedingcool.com/2018/07/03/ashes-of-creation-largest-mmos-production/
Amazon studio are making games. Not sure how large their budget is.
Otherwise, I'm doubtful
[EDIT]
I guess I glossed over the TRIPLE A part. City of Titans is far from a AAA developer/publisher as it was a Kickstarter started by loyal CoH fans.
- Al
Personally the only modern MMORPG trend that annoys me is the idea that MMOs need to be designed in a way to attract people who don't actually like MMOs. Which to me makes about as much sense as someone trying to figure out a way to get vegetarians to eat at their steakhouse.- FARGIN_WAR
Racing the dead pool here folks.
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Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
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Now you have kickstarter mmorpg with far higher budget. Camelot Unchained should have far higher budget than DAOC, not sure if people consider that AAA.
Its like growing up in an abusive household, you just think its normal and learn how to make it work. There are a couple of cool places you can go in your house where its safe and fun, and you just learn to avoid the places that prey on you.
Also keep an eye out on Crowfall. Its a Western MMO, not sure if its American, but that one should be out around 2021 as well. .
But I feel the same way as you, that for the past few years there has been nothing AAA of note. Just some Asian F2P cash shop games and well on the up side alot of the existing games had expansions. But yeah an expansion on games released in 2013 and 2015 is kinda lame compared to a brand new AAA MMO imho. So we have definitely had a drought
Businesses are being born all the time.
Visionary Realms should be a potential company, but they seem to procrastinate on their projects where they wouldn't be profitable..... Good example of potential that will just miss the mark.
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Western AAA MMORPG two come to mind. New World by Amazon still in alpha and the New Lord Of The Rings also by Amazon
Proud MMORPG.com member since March 2004! Make PvE GREAT Again!
Clearly, if it does well and stays consistently popular, then we can infer that it was the failure of the developers over the last decade who couldn't figure out what players would subscribe to. If it fizzles and flops, we will infer that there just isn't a good enough desire from players and there will probably be nothing to follow.
Personally, I don't think this is a very accurate test, but I think that regardless, it will be THE test that decides if AAA MMORPGs are viable in the West or if they are a thing of the past like 1st person puzzle solvers (like Myst).
Essentially my theory is that as competition in the live service space heats up, companies will be forced to be more MMO like. With social and guilding features, as another reason for players to stick around. Guild wide benefits to being a whale/dolphin spender/ing to normalize in game shop spend. And the fact that a publisher spinning a game as an MMORPG makes it easier to spin it as more feature-ful than competitors.
You can see this as Destiny was spun out of their publisher, the first they did was call themselves an MMORPG. Anthem had last minute changes to add a multiplayer social hub as well.
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Though for smaller MMOs you'll have opportunity to have fun.
Though we did have Worlds Adrift come and go. It was a great to play game early weekend mornings when PvPs and Streamers were asleep. And had an interesting world with fun ship building.
Then I'm going to be paying attention to Starbase. Depending on which stupid decisions they make for PvP it could be great (it doesn't matter which decisions they make they'll be the wrong ones to over half the player base). https://store.steampowered.com/app/454120/Starbase/
Crowfall is "getting there".
And we have a dozen half/quarter hopes like StarCitizen and Chronicles of Elyria.
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The gaming landscape has changed and even if we had the old/new school hybrid MMOs that I think would do better than the current batch, no MMO is going to be a safe enough bet for such big bucks as a AAA.
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When we see this occur, we'll get our AAA clone of the new format. AAA companies do not innovate.
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