ESA: Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo Will Require Disclosure of Loot Box Odds - MMORPG.com News

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ESA: Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo Will Require Disclosure of Loot Box Odds - MMORPG.com News

The ESA (Entertainment Software Association) stated that Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony are currently creating policies which require the disclosure of loot box odds for their consoles.

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foppotee

If it involves real-world money directly or indirectly I think this is a good thing for players who are customers. Nothing wrong with an informed customer with knowing the statistics if they're accurate. Legal casinos have to display the odds & are regulated so if the gaming industry will be going this route then same for them. Good for Sony, Nintendo, & Microsoft preemptively acting too. I think such a law though is still far far away from passing since there's a lot of money behind preventing this.

Aeander

You can disclose the odds, but gambling is still gambling.

Slapshot1188

Progress. Now keep them away from kids

Iselin

I've always been curious about just how much impact knowing the odds has on sales since they're all so reluctant to do it unless a country (China) and now the consoles forces them.

Tiller

The only odds I need to see is "Shit"

Aeander

Iselin said:

I've always been curious about just how much impact knowing the odds has on sales since they're all so reluctant to do it unless a country (China) and now the consoles forces them.

Fire Emblem Heroes on mobile discloses approximate odds. It's odds by rarity and by focus, not by character (which would be much less practical). It's still among the highest grossing mobile games.

More likely, disclosure of odds is something developers dislike because it prevents them from engaging in shady dynamic odds, controlled by AI learning that can determine what you want and manipulate your odds accordingly.

Albatroes

Its kind of funny that the 'saviors' of the industries are the ones that just let you buy the MRX directly, instead of putting them into a 'box' to squeeze the most money they can out of you. Honestly, I think I'd be able to sleep better at night in one of these industries if I made lootboxes for those that only want to play the game and earn everything that way just at a random/non-duplicated chance and have the people that want to buy, just buy what they want directly. That way the 'players' can take a gamble if they want and just buy it directly with real money if they feel the odds are too much. The reality of the situation is that these boxes will always exist regardless of what 'we' want, but they should be reasonable about it.

Albatroes

DMKano said:

Twist - disclose the odds, but keep the actual odds completely different.

Once masses complain - blame RNG.

Profit.

I was honestly going to say this exact same thing, but posed more as "Can't they just lie about the odds they disclose?" There's really no mathematically sound way (that I can think of) that would result in the exact same number) to disprove them greatly.

Sovrath

Aeander said:

You can disclose the odds, but gambling is still gambling.

There’s nothing wrong with gambling unless you are mortgaging your life away.

Alverant

There's nothing preventing them from lying or changing the odds so they'll tell the truth for a day (or hour). At least with physical gambling devices, there's ways to independently deduce the odds.

LackingMMO

Crates just need to be removed from full priced games. Anything that can be deemed as gambling needs to be removed from kid games period. If there is going to be gambling in it, needs to be a warning when starting the game just like when they have seizure warnings, give them a M+ rating even though ratings mean nothing.

Iselin

Albatroes said:

DMKano said:

Twist - disclose the odds, but keep the actual odds completely different.

Once masses complain - blame RNG.

Profit.

I was honestly going to say this exact same thing, but posed more as "Can't they just lie about the odds they disclose?" There's really no mathematically sound way (that I can think of) that would result in the exact same number) to disprove them greatly.

Funny thing though... it's because they haven't revealed the odds that fans have created independent projects mostly through self reporting, trying to figure out the odds. If those spreadsheets get enough data points they get to be fairly accurate. Some go even beyond that...

In ESO for example there is an addon that tracks what you get from the loot boxes (called "crown crates") and there's a website with the compiled results:  https://www.crowncrates.com/

If the officially stated odds deviate from that, i'll be noticed.

Iselin

Sovrath said:

Aeander said:

You can disclose the odds, but gambling is still gambling.

There’s nothing wrong with gambling unless you are mortgaging your life away.

In theory you're right but when games are modified and developed in ways that withhold some desirable items from the core game in order to create a greater incentive to gamble with loot crates, everyone loses.

Vrika

DMKano said:

Twist - disclose the odds, but keep the actual odds completely different.

Once masses complain - blame RNG.

Profit.

They'd go to jail if someone blew whistle on that practice.

Not that it won't happen at all, but I think most large companies would be honest.

moshra

Vrika said:

DMKano said:

Twist - disclose the odds, but keep the actual odds completely different.

Once masses complain - blame RNG.

Profit.

They'd go to jail if someone blew whistle on that practice.

Not that it won't happen at all, but I think most large companies would be honest.

And someone real low on the totem pole will get the blame for it while the real people behind it find other ways to take your money.

Sovrath

Iselin said:

Sovrath said:

Aeander said:

You can disclose the odds, but gambling is still gambling.

There’s nothing wrong with gambling unless you are mortgaging your life away.

In theory you're right but when games are modified and developed in ways that withhold some desirable items from the core game in order to create a greater incentive to gamble with loot crates, everyone loses.

Like I said, "there is nothing wrong with gambling unless you mortgage your life away."

If a game is creating a very bad experience where you are literally swiping the credit card and can't afford it then that's an issue. But that's an issue with the person.

We've had this round and round argument before. I'm not interested in being protected by myself.

It's a slippery slope as we then can't have vegas or atlantic city or the lottery. Can't have that!

Any game that isn't fun unless you swipe your credit card is "a bad game." but people will still dive in and then want to be saved from themselves.

But again, we've gone around and around on this one.

Iselin

Sovrath said:

Iselin said:

Sovrath said:

Aeander said:

You can disclose the odds, but gambling is still gambling.

There’s nothing wrong with gambling unless you are mortgaging your life away.

In theory you're right but when games are modified and developed in ways that withhold some desirable items from the core game in order to create a greater incentive to gamble with loot crates, everyone loses.

Like I said, "there is nothing wrong with gambling unless you mortgage your life away."

If a game is creating a very bad experience where you are literally swiping the credit card and can't afford it then that's an issue. But that's an issue with the person.

We've had this round and round argument before. I'm not interested in being protected by myself.

It's a slippery slope as we then can't have vegas or atlantic city or the lottery. Can't have that!

Any game that isn't fun unless you swipe your credit card is "a bad game." but people will still dive in and then want to be saved from themselves.

But again, we've gone around and around on this one.

I'm not interested in discussing the moral, social or economic aspects of gambling.

What interests me about it in gaming is simply how it impacts the game itself and to me its pretty obvious that a game becomes a lesser game when loot and mechanics are manipulated to funnel you toward loot crates or the cash shop.

Sovrath

Iselin said:

Sovrath said:

Iselin said:

Sovrath said:

Aeander said:

You can disclose the odds, but gambling is still gambling.

There’s nothing wrong with gambling unless you are mortgaging your life away.

In theory you're right but when games are modified and developed in ways that withhold some desirable items from the core game in order to create a greater incentive to gamble with loot crates, everyone loses.

Like I said, "there is nothing wrong with gambling unless you mortgage your life away."

If a game is creating a very bad experience where you are literally swiping the credit card and can't afford it then that's an issue. But that's an issue with the person.

We've had this round and round argument before. I'm not interested in being protected by myself.

It's a slippery slope as we then can't have vegas or atlantic city or the lottery. Can't have that!

Any game that isn't fun unless you swipe your credit card is "a bad game." but people will still dive in and then want to be saved from themselves.

But again, we've gone around and around on this one.

I'm not interested in discussing the moral, social or economic aspects of gambling.

What interests me about it in gaming is simply how it impacts the game itself and to me its pretty obvious that a game becomes a lesser game when loot and mechanics are manipulated to funnel you toward loot crates or the cash shop.

can't agree more.

vegetableoil

disclosure? what's the use? it's still THERE. /facepalm

Azaron_Nightblade

DMKano said:

Twist - disclose the odds, but keep the actual odds completely different.

Once masses complain - blame RNG.

Profit.

Not gonna lie; that was the first thing that came to mind.
I'm sure they constantly tweak the RNG in the background. Especially games that have events where they give away "free stuff", like BDO when it throws enhancement materials around like candy. Turn the odds down, and make bank on all those suckers forking out money for artisan's memories.

Alverant

Vrika said:

DMKano said:

Twist - disclose the odds, but keep the actual odds completely different.



Once masses complain - blame RNG.



Profit.

They'd go to jail if someone blew whistle on that practice.

Not that it won't happen at all, but I think most large companies would be honest.

No they wouldn't. Executives have done worse things and got away with it. For example wage theft. Wal-mart stole millions (if not billions) from their employees by forcing them to work off the clock. In once case they literally locked them inside the store. No one went to jail for that. All they have to do is cry out "Free enterprise!" or complain about "socialism" and they'll have supporters going on about how the big, bad, gubment is taking away their rights.

Look at EA, they sold a racing game with no micro-transactions then added them months later after they got the majority of their sales and it got the desired ESRB rating (something they wouldn't have gotten if the micro-transactions were added from the get-go). Want a smaller scale example of game-company dishonesty? Ever Kickstarter video game that promised a Steam key that later went Epic-exclusive.

Celcius

Torval said:

Valve should be on that list. A big criticism I have for Valve right now is its stance on RMT and loot crates. They need to be taken to task over that. Here's an opportunity for Epic to one up Valve by joining Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo with these policies. If PC store fronts are as consumer friendly as they claim, then they can prove it now.

While I do wish more companies would force disclosing odds, the big three doing it may as well be all of them. The only games that won't show odds are going to be ones that are only available on Steam...which are getting pretty rare these days. Most games now are multiplatform and with MS diving deep on their market / game subscription, every company who is putting games on PC will want in on that. (Meaning Microsoft will force odds disclosure there)

No company is going to change the odds just because it is a different version of the game as I really doubt this will affect any of their bottom lines. It is a good step in the right direction for sure, but we are way off it having any substantial impact. Overwatch in China for example, only discloses rarity odds. This does not really help since you could get a legendary skin you don't want as there are so many now. This means companies can still make the highest tier drops from loot boxes have different drop rates within that tier and get away with it. (IE: Ugly legendary skins are most common, the new fancy ones are the least common, but since they are both legendary tier you have no clue about it)

Seelinnikoi

Aeander said:

You can disclose the odds, but gambling is still gambling.

True.

But if players know there is only a 1% chance of getting the item they are aiming for, they might think twice.

Seelinnikoi

DMKano said:

Twist - disclose the odds, but keep the actual odds completely different.



Once masses complain - blame RNG.



Profit.

I think you worked on the gaming industry, is that right?

If yes, do you think deep down in the code some engineer could set the odds to be different by order of the management?

I think they will do that as its nearly impossible for anyone to find out as they will not disclose game source code as its industry secret or whatever.

gervaise1

Can't fault the change, not sure about the motive.

If loot boxes are accepted by regulators / governments as gambling then it follows that whatever laws pertaining to gambling (that apply) should be applied.

Is this an attempt at "self-regulation" to avoid loot boxes being "formally" classified as gambling?