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Crowfall Paid Account Progression

Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,651
edited July 2021 in Crowfall
Since this is likely the most important number for Artcraft in the short term, I will track the number of Paid Accounts from the Malekai bot.  If someone ELSE wants to cross check the data they can go knock themselves out.  Since most existing players are Crowdfunding backers, we have already paid for the game and many of us have VIP paid for month if not years.  New accounts represent revenue for the company and are the most valuable by far.

The starting point will be 7/9 as that is the first data point I have.

7/9-   (86,403)
Today-  (91,405) (Updated 7/15)

New Accounts = 5002
Avg per day = 834
Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts) = $200,080


* This thread is PURELY about tracking new accounts since 7/9.  If you want to discuss vases vs eggs, this is not the place.

All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

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Post edited by Slapshot1188 on
BrainyGdemami
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Comments

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,651
    Zegaloth said:
    Since this is likely the most important number for Artcraft in the short term, I will track the number of Paid Accounts from the Malekai bot.  If someone ELSE wants to cross check the data they can go knock themselves out.  Since most existing players are Crowdfunding backers, we have already paid for the game and many of us have VIP paid for month if not years.  New accounts represent revenue for the company and are the most valuable by far.

    The starting point will be 7/9 as that is the first data point I have.

    7/9-   (86,403)
    Today-  (88,996)

    New Accounts = 2593

    Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts) = $103,720

    * This thread is PURELY about tracking new accounts since 7/9.  If you want to discuss vases vs eggs, this is not the place.


    Maximum amount of revenue excluding discounts, is $518,574.07

    Not too bad during their first week.

    Sure, but minimum is far more likely for people to buy in at this point.  Pretty sure my number is a lot closer to reality than your number, but you keep doing you.

    Oh and By the way... for the record.. since you are such a sticker.. your number is wrong.  I'll let you examine what you typed and why it's wrong.

    Have fun.

    Gdemami

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • BrainyBrainy Member EpicPosts: 2,206
    Since this is likely the most important number for Artcraft in the short term, I will track the number of Paid Accounts from the Malekai bot.  If someone ELSE wants to cross check the data they can go knock themselves out.  Since most existing players are Crowdfunding backers, we have already paid for the game and many of us have VIP paid for month if not years.  New accounts represent revenue for the company and are the most valuable by far.

    The starting point will be 7/9 as that is the first data point I have.

    7/9-   (86,403)
    Today-  (88,996)

    New Accounts = 2593

    Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts) = $103,720

    * This thread is PURELY about tracking new accounts since 7/9.  If you want to discuss vases vs eggs, this is not the place.


    Just curious if your numbers account for free trials, how are new accounts defined and where is that data coming from?
    [Deleted User]Ungood
  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,651
    Brainy said:
    Since this is likely the most important number for Artcraft in the short term, I will track the number of Paid Accounts from the Malekai bot.  If someone ELSE wants to cross check the data they can go knock themselves out.  Since most existing players are Crowdfunding backers, we have already paid for the game and many of us have VIP paid for month if not years.  New accounts represent revenue for the company and are the most valuable by far.

    The starting point will be 7/9 as that is the first data point I have.

    7/9-   (86,403)
    Today-  (88,996)

    New Accounts = 2593

    Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts) = $103,720

    * This thread is PURELY about tracking new accounts since 7/9.  If you want to discuss vases vs eggs, this is not the place.


    Just curious if your numbers account for free trials, how are new accounts defined and where is that data coming from?
    Data comes from the Malakei bot.  No idea where they pull it from but they clearly define it as paid-for accounts.

    Crowfall Population on LIVE
    Campaigns
    Gods Reach US East 1 (Gods Reach Ruleset) | Population: 500 / 1400 | us-east-1
    Gods Reach US West 1 (Gods Reach Ruleset) | Population: 337 / 1400 | us-west-2
    Gods Reach EU 1 (Gods Reach Ruleset) | Population: 79 / 1400 | eu-central-1
    Gods Reach Australia 1 (Gods Reach Ruleset) | Population: 94 / 1400 | ap-southeast-2
    Gods Reach Brazil 1 (Gods Reach Ruleset) | Population: 82 / 1400 | sa-east-1
    Gods Reach US East 2 (Gods Reach Ruleset) | Population: 330 / 1400 | us-east-1
    Gods Reach US East 3 (Gods Reach Ruleset) | Population: 371 / 1400 | us-east-1
    Gods Reach US West 2 (Gods Reach Ruleset) | Population: 309 / 1400 | us-west-2
    Gods Reach EU 2 (Gods Reach Ruleset) | Population: 84 / 1400 | eu-central-1
    Solvek (EU) (Dregs Ruleset - Max Group Size 6) | Population: 39 / 1800 | eu-central-1
    Campaigns Part 2
    Nermara (US East) (Dregs Ruleset - Max Group Size 6) | Population: 521 / 1800 | us-east-1
    Imerlin (US West) (Dregs Ruleset - Max Group Size 6) | Population: 463 / 1800 | us-west-2
    Eternal Kingdoms
    There are 58 "players" across 38 EKs.
    Current Crowfall Population
    There are 3267 players in Crowfall.
    This represents 3.66256 % of the total number of paid-for accounts (89,200).

    [Deleted User]Gdemami

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,651
    Zegaloth said:
    Zegaloth said:
    Since this is likely the most important number for Artcraft in the short term, I will track the number of Paid Accounts from the Malekai bot.  If someone ELSE wants to cross check the data they can go knock themselves out.  Since most existing players are Crowdfunding backers, we have already paid for the game and many of us have VIP paid for month if not years.  New accounts represent revenue for the company and are the most valuable by far.

    The starting point will be 7/9 as that is the first data point I have.

    7/9-   (86,403)
    Today-  (88,996)

    New Accounts = 2593

    Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts) = $103,720

    * This thread is PURELY about tracking new accounts since 7/9.  If you want to discuss vases vs eggs, this is not the place.


    Maximum amount of revenue excluding discounts, is $518,574.07

    Not too bad during their first week.

    Sure, but minimum is far more likely for people to buy in at this point.  Pretty sure my number is a lot closer to reality than your number, but you keep doing you.

    Oh and By the way... for the record.. since you are such a sticker.. your number is wrong.  I'll let you examine what you typed and why it's wrong.

    Have fun.


    My mistake. I would love to run over those numbers with you. As far as I am aware the most expensive pack available costs $199.99, and using your new purchase numbers of 2593 gave me $518,574.07 Which is correct. Can you link me to what the most expensive pack is so I can more accurately provide the maximum profit they made off those sales?
    Nope.  Read what I wrote and read what you typed.  I'm sure you can figure it out all on your own.

    [Deleted User]

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • YashaXYashaX Member EpicPosts: 3,100
    Zegaloth said:
    Since this is likely the most important number for Artcraft in the short term, I will track the number of Paid Accounts from the Malekai bot.  If someone ELSE wants to cross check the data they can go knock themselves out.  Since most existing players are Crowdfunding backers, we have already paid for the game and many of us have VIP paid for month if not years.  New accounts represent revenue for the company and are the most valuable by far.

    The starting point will be 7/9 as that is the first data point I have.

    7/9-   (86,403)
    Today-  (88,996)

    New Accounts = 2593

    Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts) = $103,720

    * This thread is PURELY about tracking new accounts since 7/9.  If you want to discuss vases vs eggs, this is not the place.


    Maximum amount of revenue excluding discounts, is $518,574.07

    Not too bad during their first week.

    Wow half a million isn't bad for the first week, and add on to that recurring revenue of about $38,895/month just from those new subscribers and they are on a roll!

    And if we conservatively assume no acceleration in subscriber number growth (net adds remain constatnt at 2,593 per week) in 12 months we get:
    • 134,836 new members
    • max revenue from purchases of about $26,967,200
    • monthly recurring income of about $2,000,000.
    This is fucking amazing! Wow killer!

    Slapshot1188[Deleted User]
    ....
  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,534
    This whole topic is sooo sad. 



    What is the goal of this thread, other than to express some kind of really odd level of panic. This is super odd coming from a player, when the Devs are being chill AF about this.
    [Deleted User]
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,651
    Zegaloth said:
    YashaX said:
    Zegaloth said:
    Since this is likely the most important number for Artcraft in the short term, I will track the number of Paid Accounts from the Malekai bot.  If someone ELSE wants to cross check the data they can go knock themselves out.  Since most existing players are Crowdfunding backers, we have already paid for the game and many of us have VIP paid for month if not years.  New accounts represent revenue for the company and are the most valuable by far.

    The starting point will be 7/9 as that is the first data point I have.

    7/9-   (86,403)
    Today-  (88,996)

    New Accounts = 2593

    Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts) = $103,720

    * This thread is PURELY about tracking new accounts since 7/9.  If you want to discuss vases vs eggs, this is not the place.


    Maximum amount of revenue excluding discounts, is $518,574.07

    Not too bad during their first week.

    Wow half a million isn't bad for the first week, and add on to that recurring revenue of about $38,895/month just from those new subscribers and they are on a roll!

    And if we conservatively assume no acceleration in subscriber number growth (net adds remain constatnt at 2,593 per week) in 12 months we get:
    • 134,836 new members
    • max revenue from purchases of about $26,967,200
    • monthly recurring income of about $2,000,000.
    This is fucking amazing! Wow killer!

    I agree this would be amazing. However Slapshot1180 said that I didn't do my calculations right based on the numbers he posted, would you mind checking out what I might have done wrong?

    I think if we both come up with the same numbers it may have just been a simple error on his part.
    OK I'll explain it to you since it is too hard:

    I posted "Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts)"

    You, trying to be a smartass, wanted to do the opposite but instead said "Maximum amount of revenue excluding discounts". Leaving out some key words.

    Their maximum amount of revenue is far greater than you posted.  People could buy Mounts, Buildings, Crowns.  They could have made millions as a "Maximum amount of revenue excluding discounts".

    Very pedantic, yes.   Figured you'd appreciate that.

    Looking forward to seeing how many more accounts are sold by tomorrow's update. Looks like about 300 so far.  Progress!

    Gdemami

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 44,057
    Well it sort of like some folks want to win the battle but in doing so lose the war.

    Better to just hope for the best as there really aren't enough new or interesting MMOs to play (at least for me) so I'll root for this one to survive.

    [Deleted User]Ungood[Deleted User]

    "True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde 

    "I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant

    Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm

    Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

    Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™

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  • BrainyBrainy Member EpicPosts: 2,206
    edited July 2021
    YashaX said:
    Wow half a million isn't bad for the first week, and add on to that recurring revenue of about $38,895/month just from those new subscribers and they are on a roll!

    And if we conservatively assume no acceleration in subscriber number growth (net adds remain constatnt at 2,593 per week) in 12 months we get:
    • 134,836 new members
    • max revenue from purchases of about $26,967,200
    • monthly recurring income of about $2,000,000.
    This is fucking amazing! Wow killer!


    Yeah I get this is a joke.  I mean WoW makes close to this per week.

    Reality is this is what these devs need just to pay back interest to the investors.  Double that to actually start paying back some principle.

    So this max number joke, is actually the number this game needs.

    Things have to change in a hurry in a BIG way or there is going to be layoffs soon.  Unless these investors are just gifting $35mil, reality is going to set in real soon.

    In regards to these devs being cool.  Yeah right, its possible they are in a massive depression.  These numbers are so bad I am sure they have no clue where to start to fix it.

    Is it possible this is the worst launch in the history of MMO's?  I don't follow all the mmo's but this has to rank as one of them for sure.  Some shut down before launch, but I am talking full launch with these kind of numbers during week 1.

    Gdemami
  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,534
    Brainy said:
    YashaX said:
    Wow half a million isn't bad for the first week, and add on to that recurring revenue of about $38,895/month just from those new subscribers and they are on a roll!

    And if we conservatively assume no acceleration in subscriber number growth (net adds remain constatnt at 2,593 per week) in 12 months we get:
    • 134,836 new members
    • max revenue from purchases of about $26,967,200
    • monthly recurring income of about $2,000,000.
    This is fucking amazing! Wow killer!


    Yeah I get this is a joke.  I mean WoW makes close to this per week.

    Reality is this is what these devs need just to pay back interest to the investors.  Double that to actually start paying back some principle.

    So this max number joke, is actually the number this game needs.

    Things have to change in a hurry in a BIG way or there is going to be layoffs soon.  Unless these investors are just gifting $35mil, reality is going to set in real soon.

    In regards to these devs being cool.  Yeah right, its possible they are in a massive depression.  These numbers are so bad I am sure they have no clue where to start to fix it.

    Is it possible this is the worst launch in the history of MMO's?  I don't follow all the mmo's but this has to rank as one of them for sure.  Some shut down before launch, but I am talking full launch with these kind of numbers during week 1.

    Tell me the value of worry, before you are given something to worry about.

    Right now, all you have is a bunch of arm chair developers and investors pulling stuff out of their asses and trying to look smart while they make up some kind of situation.

    Looks more like drama queening, because this talk with accomplish exactly nothing, because if the game fails, what are you going to do about it? That's right, Nothing.

    So why worry about something you have zero control over.

    If you wanted to make an impact and make the game to success, you would go out and bang your drum about how great it is, to get people to play it.

    No piss around on a forums about how it's gonna DIIEEEEEEEEEE~! 
    [Deleted User]
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • lahnmirlahnmir Member LegendaryPosts: 5,053
    edited July 2021
    I believe it is very hard to compare Crowfalls launch ‘succes’ with that of other MMORPGs. Launch here is just an artificially created point in time, people have had many years to play, and spend money on, the game so there isn’t this sudden, massive, influx of players at launch. 

    Launching on the large digital stores, Epic, Steam etc. might help, slowly growing further might help, but besides the 30 million loan and ongoing costs, how much revenue do they REALLY have to generate compared to those companies which invested all of the money themselves up front and have to make all of that back after launch?

    I could also argue that in the long run Crowfall could be relatively cheap to keep interesting for its players. It doesn’t need expansions etc. Artcraft can just mess around with the parameters of certain campaigns to make them feel completely different and new.

    Just some thoughts.

    /Cheers,
    Lahnmir
    [Deleted User]
    'the only way he could nail it any better is if he used a cross.'

    Kyleran on yours sincerely 


    'But there are many. You can play them entirely solo, and even offline. Also, you are wrong by default.'

    Ikcin in response to yours sincerely debating whether or not single-player offline MMOs exist...



    'This does not apply just to ED but SC or any other game. What they will get is Rebirth/X4, likely prettier but equally underwhelming and pointless. 

    It is incredibly difficult to design some meaningfull leg content that would fit a space ship game - simply because it is not a leg game.

    It is just huge resource waste....'

    Gdemami absolutely not being an armchair developer

  • YashaXYashaX Member EpicPosts: 3,100
    Brainy said:
    YashaX said:
    Wow half a million isn't bad for the first week, and add on to that recurring revenue of about $38,895/month just from those new subscribers and they are on a roll!

    And if we conservatively assume no acceleration in subscriber number growth (net adds remain constatnt at 2,593 per week) in 12 months we get:
    • 134,836 new members
    • max revenue from purchases of about $26,967,200
    • monthly recurring income of about $2,000,000.
    This is fucking amazing! Wow killer!


    Yeah I get this is a joke.  I mean WoW makes close to this per week.

    Reality is this is what these devs need just to pay back interest to the investors.  Double that to actually start paying back some principle.

    So this max number joke, is actually the number this game needs.

    Things have to change in a hurry in a BIG way or there is going to be layoffs soon.  Unless these investors are just gifting $35mil, reality is going to set in real soon.

    In regards to these devs being cool.  Yeah right, its possible they are in a massive depression.  These numbers are so bad I am sure they have no clue where to start to fix it.

    Is it possible this is the worst launch in the history of MMO's?  I don't follow all the mmo's but this has to rank as one of them for sure.  Some shut down before launch, but I am talking full launch with these kind of numbers during week 1.

    I really have no idea about the money side of things, or what they will need to stay afloat (just laughing along with the Slap vs ungood show), but I logged on and played a bit and to be honest I am really surprised at how good the game is.

    I am not sure what metrics you are using to judge the launch, but for a small game like this it seems reasonably populated and pretty polished (compared to when i played the beta last year). They even have an Australian server, so this is like the first mmo I have played with 18 ping- usually I am stuck with 250-350 ping.
    Ungood[Deleted User][Deleted User]
    ....
  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,534
    Brainy said:
    Is it possible this is the worst launch in the history of MMO's?  I don't follow all the mmo's but this has to rank as one of them for sure.  Some shut down before launch, but I am talking full launch with these kind of numbers during week 1.

    Horizons - Isteria: Launched in 2004, Capped at 35k Subs had less than 5K subs 3 years later.. Still alive.
    The Realms Online: never saw more than 25K - currently still live since 1997.  - 97 active players last I looked. 

    These kinds of posts about Crowfall are just pointless drama.
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • BrainyBrainy Member EpicPosts: 2,206
    edited July 2021

    Ungood said:
    Tell me the value of worry, before you are given something to worry about.

    Right now, all you have is a bunch of arm chair developers and investors pulling stuff out of their asses and trying to look smart while they make up some kind of situation.

    Looks more like drama queening, because this talk with accomplish exactly nothing, because if the game fails, what are you going to do about it? That's right, Nothing.

    So why worry about something you have zero control over.

    If you wanted to make an impact and make the game to success, you would go out and bang your drum about how great it is, to get people to play it.

    No piss around on a forums about how it's gonna DIIEEEEEEEEEE~! 

    I get you want people cheerleading for this game.  Going out Rah Rah how everything is wonderful and the game launched as a stunning success.  That didn't happen.

    This is a forum, people discuss stuff on forums.  Who cares whether or not they can change the outcome.  You can pretty much say that about every thread on this forum, so according to you what's the point of even talking on this forum?

    This week we are talking about the news, and IT IS news that Crowfall has one of the worst launches ever for an MMO. 

    It has big implications that a 35mil funded MMO can only get 3k players on launch. Maybe next week people will be speculating that other MMO"s might have similar disastrous launches. 

    Maybe in a couple of months we will be talking about the death or success of New World.  I can tell you if New World only has 3k players at launch its gonna be news and it will get a bunch of attention.

    We will just have to see how things develop.


    Gdemami
  • lahnmirlahnmir Member LegendaryPosts: 5,053
    edited July 2021
    Brainy said:

    Ungood said:
    Tell me the value of worry, before you are given something to worry about.

    Right now, all you have is a bunch of arm chair developers and investors pulling stuff out of their asses and trying to look smart while they make up some kind of situation.

    Looks more like drama queening, because this talk with accomplish exactly nothing, because if the game fails, what are you going to do about it? That's right, Nothing.

    So why worry about something you have zero control over.

    If you wanted to make an impact and make the game to success, you would go out and bang your drum about how great it is, to get people to play it.

    No piss around on a forums about how it's gonna DIIEEEEEEEEEE~! 

    I get you want people cheerleading for this game.  Going out Rah Rah how everything is wonderful and the game launched as a stunning success.  That didn't happen.

    This is a forum, people discuss stuff on forums.  Who cares whether or not they can change the outcome.  You can pretty much say that about every thread on this forum, so according to you what's the point of even talking on this forum?

    This week we are talking about the news, and IT IS news that Crowfall has one of the worst launches ever for an MMO. 

    It has big implications that a 35mil funded MMO can only get 3k players on launch. Maybe next week people will be speculating that other MMO"s might have similar disastrous launches. 

    Maybe in a couple of months we will be talking about the death or success of New World.  I can tell you if New World only has 3k players at launch its gonna be news and it will get a bunch of attention.

    We will just have to see how things develop.


    I am not saying the population is high but 3000 people playing at the same time doesn’t mean the entire population is 3000. If everybody plays about 2 hours a day the entire population would be roughly 36.000 for instance.

    /Cheers,
    Lahnmir
    YashaX[Deleted User]GdemamiUngood
    'the only way he could nail it any better is if he used a cross.'

    Kyleran on yours sincerely 


    'But there are many. You can play them entirely solo, and even offline. Also, you are wrong by default.'

    Ikcin in response to yours sincerely debating whether or not single-player offline MMOs exist...



    'This does not apply just to ED but SC or any other game. What they will get is Rebirth/X4, likely prettier but equally underwhelming and pointless. 

    It is incredibly difficult to design some meaningfull leg content that would fit a space ship game - simply because it is not a leg game.

    It is just huge resource waste....'

    Gdemami absolutely not being an armchair developer

  • BrainyBrainy Member EpicPosts: 2,206
    lahnmir said:
    I am not saying the population is high but 3000 people playing at the same time doesn’t mean the entire population is 3000. If everybody plays about 2 hours a day the entire population would be roughly 36.000 for instance.

    /Cheers,
    Lahnmir

    Yeah I get that.

    Its pretty obvious 3k people playing concurrently isn't the total amount of people playing per month.

    But what MMO's are launching with only 3k people concurrent?

    The other problem is because its Crowdfunded, the backers already paid their money.  So how is the game generating new revenue?  Its going to get that from new players.  Even if all 3k were new players it would be a drop in the bucket of what this game needs.

    Also how is this game going to pay its employees?  So can you expect any additional content?

    Is it enough to keep the servers open.  Sometimes games can wind down slowly and survive on a small number of players, because they already got the money out of the game and laid off employees slowly years earlier.  But when you go from a fully function office with many employees and have to scale all the way down to some guy in their moms basement overnight.  Yeah that's a problem.
    GdemamiYashaX
  • lahnmirlahnmir Member LegendaryPosts: 5,053
    edited July 2021
    Brainy said:
    lahnmir said:
    I am not saying the population is high but 3000 people playing at the same time doesn’t mean the entire population is 3000. If everybody plays about 2 hours a day the entire population would be roughly 36.000 for instance.

    /Cheers,
    Lahnmir

    Yeah I get that.

    Its pretty obvious 3k people playing concurrently isn't the total amount of people playing per month.

    But what MMO's are launching with only 3k people concurrent?

    The other problem is because its Crowdfunded, the backers already paid their money.  So how is the game generating new revenue?  Its going to get that from new players.  Even if all 3k were new players it would be a drop in the bucket of what this game needs.

    Also how is this game going to pay its employees?  So can you expect any additional content?

    Is it enough to keep the servers open.  Sometimes games can wind down slowly and survive on a small number of players, because they already got the money out of the game and laid off employees slowly years earlier.  But when you go from a fully function office with many employees and have to scale all the way down to some guy in their moms basement overnight.  Yeah that's a problem.
    Good points, let me quote myself from an earlier post, these are not real answers of course but just some thoughts:

    I believe it is very hard to compare Crowfalls launch ‘succes’ with that of other MMORPGs. Launch here is just an artificially created point in time, people have had many years to play, and spend money on, the game so there isn’t this sudden, massive, influx of players at launch. 

    Launching on the large digital stores, Epic, Steam etc. might help, slowly growing further might help, but besides the 30 million loan and ongoing costs, how much revenue do they REALLY have to generate compared to those companies which invested all of the money themselves up front and have to make all of that back after launch?

    I could also argue that in the long run Crowfall could be relatively cheap to keep interesting for its players. It doesn’t need expansions etc. Artcraft can just mess around with the parameters of certain campaigns to make them feel completely different and new
    .

    /Cheers,
    Lahnmir
    [Deleted User]Ungood
    'the only way he could nail it any better is if he used a cross.'

    Kyleran on yours sincerely 


    'But there are many. You can play them entirely solo, and even offline. Also, you are wrong by default.'

    Ikcin in response to yours sincerely debating whether or not single-player offline MMOs exist...



    'This does not apply just to ED but SC or any other game. What they will get is Rebirth/X4, likely prettier but equally underwhelming and pointless. 

    It is incredibly difficult to design some meaningfull leg content that would fit a space ship game - simply because it is not a leg game.

    It is just huge resource waste....'

    Gdemami absolutely not being an armchair developer

  • BrainyBrainy Member EpicPosts: 2,206
    lahnmir said:

    Launching on the large digital stores, Epic, Steam etc. might help, slowly growing further might help, but besides the 30 million loan and ongoing costs, how much revenue do they REALLY have to generate compared to those companies which invested all of the money themselves up front and have to make all of that back after launch?


    Well I would think if a company used their own cash reserves to make a game, then they would be in a better position then if they took a loan.

    Using some rough math, not accounting for compounding interest.

    30 mil loan?  Well that's probably between 10% and 25% required to pay back per year just in interest. So around 3mil - 7.5mil for interest, and another 6 mil for principle.

    So you looking around 9 mil to 13.5 mil of money (not revenue) a year for 5 years just for the loan.

    Generally 15% of revenue is profit for a business with operating costs running other 85%, they can bump that to 45% if they fire all employees including officers and CEO immediately.

    60mil to 90mil annual revenue needed if you keep your employees

    20mil to 30mil annual revenue needed if you fire your employees

    Neither of these scenarios has any profit at all.  If you want profit you need to have bigger numbers.

    Most of this money has to come from new players.  Because backers already paid the money and its spent.

    TLDR
    If this game gets 1 mil NEW players to purchase at full price (over 5 years)
    It would need between 65k - 300k players paying a sub every month for 5 years. This is just to pay operation and loan, ZERO PROFIT.

    Not accounting for cash shops, will be less if you count cash shops or other income like selling the engine.



    Gdemami
  • cheyanecheyane Member LegendaryPosts: 9,404
    Everquest 2 has about 30 k overall population. They seem to be doing okay.
    Ungood
    Garrus Signature
  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,651
    Zegaloth said:
    Zegaloth said:
    YashaX said:
    Zegaloth said:
    Since this is likely the most important number for Artcraft in the short term, I will track the number of Paid Accounts from the Malekai bot.  If someone ELSE wants to cross check the data they can go knock themselves out.  Since most existing players are Crowdfunding backers, we have already paid for the game and many of us have VIP paid for month if not years.  New accounts represent revenue for the company and are the most valuable by far.

    The starting point will be 7/9 as that is the first data point I have.

    7/9-   (86,403)
    Today-  (88,996)

    New Accounts = 2593

    Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts) = $103,720

    * This thread is PURELY about tracking new accounts since 7/9.  If you want to discuss vases vs eggs, this is not the place.


    Maximum amount of revenue excluding discounts, is $518,574.07

    Not too bad during their first week.

    Wow half a million isn't bad for the first week, and add on to that recurring revenue of about $38,895/month just from those new subscribers and they are on a roll!

    And if we conservatively assume no acceleration in subscriber number growth (net adds remain constatnt at 2,593 per week) in 12 months we get:
    • 134,836 new members
    • max revenue from purchases of about $26,967,200
    • monthly recurring income of about $2,000,000.
    This is fucking amazing! Wow killer!

    I agree this would be amazing. However Slapshot1180 said that I didn't do my calculations right based on the numbers he posted, would you mind checking out what I might have done wrong?

    I think if we both come up with the same numbers it may have just been a simple error on his part.
    OK I'll explain it to you since it is too hard:

    I posted "Minimum amount of revenue from those accounts (excluding Friend discounts)"

    You, trying to be a smartass, wanted to do the opposite but instead said "Maximum amount of revenue excluding discounts". Leaving out some key words.

    Their maximum amount of revenue is far greater than you posted.  People could buy Mounts, Buildings, Crowns.  They could have made millions as a "Maximum amount of revenue excluding discounts".

    Very pedantic, yes.   Figured you'd appreciate that.

    Looking forward to seeing how many more accounts are sold by tomorrow's update. Looks like about 300 so far.  Progress!


    You weren't including mounts and cash shop extra's in your numbers, so why should I?

    If I would have factored that into my opinion, I would have stated so, and I had even clarified the methods I used for my calculations when they said they were incorrect.
    By my clarification, of detailing what I was using to come to the number I did actually made my original statement true.

    I assumed you were using the $40 game pack, so I used the $200 dollar pack. So given the criteria of what you posted, I followed it, which was intentional.

    It is only "wrong" because you wanted what I said to be wrong. Twisting someones words, and arguing in bad faith doesn't exactly compel other users to take what you say seriously, or want to have a discussion with you.

    Not sure why you are trying to start a fight when I was just adding to the conversation under the criteria you set. You didn't include any extras like discounts, so why would I include extra purchases outside of the most expensive pack that includes the game with purchase.

    So really you are just letting your feelings get in the way of being able to talk about the potential revenue solely based on the increase of accounts purchased using Malakai bot's reportings.

    Hopefully you can elevate up to the standards you set in your original post, and stay on topic.
    Too funny.  At this point I honestly think you aren't even doing it intentionally.
    Brainy

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,534
    Brainy said:

    Ungood said:
    Tell me the value of worry, before you are given something to worry about.

    Right now, all you have is a bunch of arm chair developers and investors pulling stuff out of their asses and trying to look smart while they make up some kind of situation.

    Looks more like drama queening, because this talk with accomplish exactly nothing, because if the game fails, what are you going to do about it? That's right, Nothing.

    So why worry about something you have zero control over.

    If you wanted to make an impact and make the game to success, you would go out and bang your drum about how great it is, to get people to play it.

    No piss around on a forums about how it's gonna DIIEEEEEEEEEE~! 

    I get you want people cheerleading for this game.  
    Umm No.

    I am all for open discussion, to look at thins logically and critically, or mabye just to shoot the shit, drink some beers, and talk games. I enjoy games, so I like talking about them.

    But posts like this are just pitiful nonsense.

    Like myself and others have said, that for Crowfall to maintain 3K active players, that does not mean it only has 3K active players, and yet you have some posters here trying to make it off that is the case.

    So that is not having a discussion, that is a few select people trying to cry that the sky is falling and being deceptive about what is really going on.

    Chances are, Crowfall has around 30 - 50K active players right now, to maintain it's numbers. Which, while not some WoW Killer, it is more than enough to keep a niche MMO alive and well.

    Not gonna lie, this launch as been somewhat quiet and overshadowed by other more hyped up games, and if I was not in a very hardcore Crowfall guild, I would have had no idea about the launch, and not that big into it either, thinking that I might give them some time to work out those launch day screw-ups, like I do with all other MMO's. 

    Also, summer just started, the sun in still shining at 9PM, schools out, and Gaming is mainstream, people have jobs, lives, and other things to do on their week ends, and Friday night then be logged into a game just to placate some random dudes paranoia that the game needs millions of players just so they can justify selling their KS rewards for big bucks. 

    As for the money backing, we have no idea the conditions, so to speculate means we are spurting ignorance from ignorance. If someone here is privy to the actual terms and conditions, let them speak, otherwise, what do you about it? Nothing.
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,651
    Ungood said:
    Brainy said:

    Ungood said:
    Tell me the value of worry, before you are given something to worry about.

    Right now, all you have is a bunch of arm chair developers and investors pulling stuff out of their asses and trying to look smart while they make up some kind of situation.

    Looks more like drama queening, because this talk with accomplish exactly nothing, because if the game fails, what are you going to do about it? That's right, Nothing.

    So why worry about something you have zero control over.

    If you wanted to make an impact and make the game to success, you would go out and bang your drum about how great it is, to get people to play it.

    No piss around on a forums about how it's gonna DIIEEEEEEEEEE~! 

    I get you want people cheerleading for this game.  
    Umm No.

    I am all for open discussion, to look at thins logically and critically, or mabye just to shoot the shit, drink some beers, and talk games. I enjoy games, so I like talking about them.

    But posts like this are just pitiful nonsense.

    Like myself and others have said, that for Crowfall to maintain 3K active players, that does not mean it only has 3K active players, and yet you have some posters here trying to make it off that is the case.

    So that is not having a discussion, that is a few select people trying to cry that the sky is falling and being deceptive about what is really going on.

    Chances are, Crowfall has around 30 - 50K active players right now, to maintain it's numbers. Which, while not some WoW Killer, it is more than enough to keep a niche MMO alive and well.

    Not gonna lie, this launch as been somewhat quiet and overshadowed by other more hyped up games, and if I was not in a very hardcore Crowfall guild, I would have had no idea about the launch, and not that big into it either, thinking that I might give them some time to work out those launch day screw-ups, like I do with all other MMO's. 

    Also, summer just started, the sun in still shining at 9PM, schools out, and Gaming is mainstream, people have jobs, lives, and other things to do on their week ends, and Friday night then be logged into a game just to placate some random dudes paranoia that the game needs millions of players just so they can justify selling their KS rewards for big bucks. 

    As for the money backing, we have no idea the conditions, so to speculate means we are spurting ignorance from ignorance. If someone here is privy to the actual terms and conditions, let them speak, otherwise, what do you about it? Nothing.
    This thread is only to talk about the number of new accounts sold since the 9th.  Feel free to discuss your active player counts in another thread. 

    Thanks!!

    Next update in a few hours.  Stay tuned!
    Gdemamibcbully

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,534
    Ungood said:
    Brainy said:

    Ungood said:
    Tell me the value of worry, before you are given something to worry about.

    Right now, all you have is a bunch of arm chair developers and investors pulling stuff out of their asses and trying to look smart while they make up some kind of situation.

    Looks more like drama queening, because this talk with accomplish exactly nothing, because if the game fails, what are you going to do about it? That's right, Nothing.

    So why worry about something you have zero control over.

    If you wanted to make an impact and make the game to success, you would go out and bang your drum about how great it is, to get people to play it.

    No piss around on a forums about how it's gonna DIIEEEEEEEEEE~! 

    I get you want people cheerleading for this game.  
    Umm No.

    I am all for open discussion, to look at thins logically and critically, or mabye just to shoot the shit, drink some beers, and talk games. I enjoy games, so I like talking about them.

    But posts like this are just pitiful nonsense.

    Like myself and others have said, that for Crowfall to maintain 3K active players, that does not mean it only has 3K active players, and yet you have some posters here trying to make it off that is the case.

    So that is not having a discussion, that is a few select people trying to cry that the sky is falling and being deceptive about what is really going on.

    Chances are, Crowfall has around 30 - 50K active players right now, to maintain it's numbers. Which, while not some WoW Killer, it is more than enough to keep a niche MMO alive and well.

    Not gonna lie, this launch as been somewhat quiet and overshadowed by other more hyped up games, and if I was not in a very hardcore Crowfall guild, I would have had no idea about the launch, and not that big into it either, thinking that I might give them some time to work out those launch day screw-ups, like I do with all other MMO's. 

    Also, summer just started, the sun in still shining at 9PM, schools out, and Gaming is mainstream, people have jobs, lives, and other things to do on their week ends, and Friday night then be logged into a game just to placate some random dudes paranoia that the game needs millions of players just so they can justify selling their KS rewards for big bucks. 

    As for the money backing, we have no idea the conditions, so to speculate means we are spurting ignorance from ignorance. If someone here is privy to the actual terms and conditions, let them speak, otherwise, what do you about it? Nothing.
    This thread is only to talk about the number of new accounts sold since the 9th.  Feel free to discuss your active player counts in another thread. 

    Thanks!!

    Next update in a few hours.  Stay tuned!
    101 guild mates of mine were logged in today, because I know it matters to you so much.

    Sadly they were all early backers, so I doubt they will want to buy your KS rewards.
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 17,651
    If you want to talk about me, take it to PM or another thread.  I appreciate the fan clubbing but this is purely a thread for tracking new paid accounts. Second time I’m asking.  Thanks!
    Gdemami

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • ScorchienScorchien Member LegendaryPosts: 8,914
    bcbully said:
    This guy has went from exposing studios that have no plans of really launching a mmorpg....


    to attacking a fully launched, community supported crowed funded mmorpg. One of the only crowed funded mmorpgs success stories. 




    @Slapshot1188 Look at yourself dude. Youre even bragging about a post in your sig. In sports we call this reading your own press clippings. You are a text book example what happens when people do that. You've lost your way. 

    Fully Launched is a bit of a reach

        and success story is a very big reach
    BrainyGdemami[Deleted User]
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