MMOGs are gunna be awesome.....in 2010

Unknown

The forecast for MMOGs in the year 2010 is looking pretty darn good...here's why:

1) With telecom giants SBC, Verizon, Bell South, and others pumping billions upon billions into next gen fiber optic infrastructure, high speed VDSL-2 broadband service will be availible, in the next few years, to more than 70 million homes here in the US. By 2010, these kinds of high speed internet connections should be pervasive throughout Europe, Russia, the US, and many parts of Asia.

2) The CPU war will continue to escalate. Feature sizes of 45nm and multiple (8 or more) cores will be standard in 2010, however, a paradigm shift will ensure that the brand new rig you build in 2010 will go in the livingroom, not the bedroom (or wherever). The battle for the livingroom is on!

3) The GPU war will continue to escalate. Multiple GPU (with multiple cores) cards will be the norm (SLI will be out...it's just not worth it). It will be common to have a gig or more of XDR3 RAM on your NVIDIA GeForce 10,000 card.

4) New computer hardware like Holographic hard drives, MRAM drives, and SED displays will all be widely availible and affordable (hehe, maybe...hopefully) in 2010. Also, DDR_ will be dumped in favor of Rambus XDR_.

5) High Def digital entertainment will be the law of the land (at least in the US)!

6) The Ageia PhysX Processor will have evolved into the Ageia quad-core Physx Processor...and we'll have 3rd or 4th generation code to go with it.

7) Unreal Engine IV will (hopefully) be out in 2009...MMOG projects (using UE3) started in 2008 will be able to implement this powerful new engine just in time for a late 2010 open beta!

Those are some of my predictions...I was hopeing for a Virtual Reality MMOG by 2010, but after some lengthy consideration I had to drop that fantasy.

Whatever happens, one thing is perfectly clear to me...MMOGs are gunna be awesome, in 2010!

PsyX

you need a new hoby

Unknown

hehe...My main hobby use to be playing Sci-Fi MMOGs!

Nerf09

Great graphics, lousy gameplay.

Knightmare

hopefully companies will know better by then

tigris67

2010? why not 2050!!!!!

Unknown

Unbelievable!

Heh, I thought this thread would stimulate numerous responses and a really good debate.

Gosh, if I take all these posts together I might be able to make a full sentence!

billie

Don't forget the world is supposed to end 2012

Either seven years after the plo scam 2005 'land for peace' treaty -> AC -> revelation
Or the global exterminating comet predicted by mayan calenders and OT bible code, Edgar Cayce and Nostradamus.

seabass2003

Would you like me to change your poopypants?

Unknown

The world is gunna end in 2012?

That gives us a full 2 years of playing an awesome Sci-fi MMOG!! WOOT!

LOL....Seabass, I find your offer repulsive, but at the same time strangly stimulating.

seabass2003

Haha, sorry I couldn't resist but I do like your take on the future, keep up the good work. Maybe I will change my name to pisspants.

Unknown

What I'm really interested in is what you guys think the future holds for MMOGs. I need some fresh ideas; a new perspective on what we need to do to change the stuck-in-a-grove thinking these developers seem to be trapped in.

Like I said, I only play Sci-fi MMOGs...and maybe it's me, but everyone of the Sci-fi MMOGs in development just seem...BLAH! pretty phucken dismal.

I really think that developers are affraid of what the future holds, in terms of technology and consumer demand. Much better games require much more effort. Even right now we have the ability (just barely) to do real time rendering in online games...I'm only aware of one game/project that's using it, Project Offset.

Hehe, all the cool names, like Seabass, were taken when I signed up...

Nerf09

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Originally posted by poopypants

What I'm really interested in is what you guys think the future holds for MMOGs. I need some fresh ideas; a new perspective on what we need to do to change the stuck-in-a-grove thinking these developers seem to be trapped in.
Like I said, I only play Sci-fi MMOGs...and maybe it's me, but everyone of the Sci-fi MMOGs in development just seem...BLAH! pretty phucken dismal.
I really think that developers are affraid of what the future holds, in terms of technology and consumer demand. Much better games require much more effort. Even right now we have the ability (just barely) to do real time rendering in online games...I'm only aware of one game/project that's using it, Project Offset.
Hehe, all the cool names, like Seabass, were taken when I signed up...

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Yes, graphics and internet communication has improved 100 fold since the glory days of UO.  But since then games have become ultra-restrictive disneyland rides.

 

You can only be this tall to ride:

 

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Diross

Seems to me that we will be in a better place than where we are just now. I do believe that we will still have software outpacing the hardware though, unless someone can develope CPU cooling technology that doesn't cost an arm and a leg and the heatsinks the size of a dinner platter. Heck, by 2010 maybe we will all have Liquid Nitrogen cooled gaming rigs, hehe  . Hopefully by 2010 there will be some major breakthroughs in technology and microarchitecture that will push the FSB ceiling past the 1.0-2.0 GB level and we will all have 64 bit machines which DO run software of the same rate. My dream machine would have this and maybe a 32x AGP card.

One thing, I hope that companies learn from the mistakes made in the past from past mmorpg companies and realize that their customers are their sole source for their bottom lines unlike how the SOE & LA pact treated the SWG playerbase. I hope that they realize the sins of the past can and will affect their future. I hope by 2010 that we will have companies that are more stable in their long range goals for their products and more communicative about major game changes towards their playerbase. I hope by 2010 that the mmorpg's will be thinned out so that only the best ones survive and that there will be more of a variety in mmorpg genre. While technology plays an important part in mmorpg's, the other side of the equation being the Devs, GM's, mmorpg creators, etc. have to get much better as well.

By 2010 I predict that the console platforms will make increased inroad efforts to compete with the mmorpg gaming population by trying to take away mmorpg-ers and make them into online console-based players. You can see this is evident with how consoles are becoming just like pc's in every aspect.  Only time will tell.  Whatever the case may be, make sure you do one thing...get your gaming on !!! 

Aseenus

yeah ur right but wats the point in telling us? we know mmo's are gonna be better in future.. duhh

nightphantom

Worlds not going to end in 2012, its going to end this year. Think about it, june sixth 2006... 6/6/06. Take out the 0 and you get 666 lol

Obadno

2010= EQ3 concept haked out of smedlys computer. And World of Starcraft Alpha testing from blizzard.

2050, asuming the world hasent ended. = Eq7 and games ware you can have your mind inside the game, people notoriously call this gamming experience run by AI the Matrix after the classic Sci-fi thrillar of the turn of the century.

My prediction

 

Teala

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Originally posted by billie

Don't forget the world is supposed to end 2012
Either seven years after the plo scam 2005 'land for peace' treaty -> AC -> revelation
Or the global exterminating comet predicted by mayan calenders and OT bible code, Edgar Cayce and Nostradamus.

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OMG...another believer of the 2012 prediction.  So you know about the Mayan Calender, too?

Finwe

You forgot the most important technology.

The ability to grow diamond wafers and semi-conductors using the Apollo technology.

Thus removing the necessity of silicon, THUS removing the previous boundary that we have on computers nowadays.

seabass2003

I thought the end of the world was when you add the number of the beast to the number of man and add that to the number of God.

666+666+777=END OF THE WORLD NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

combatmedic1

just think the Average age of the Common MMO gamer will go from 25-30 the 35-40......creepy

Unknown

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Originally posted by Nerf09

Yes, graphics and internet communication has improved 100 fold since the glory days of UO. But since then games have become ultra-restrictive disneyland rides.

You can only be this tall to ride:

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I totally agree with you Nerf, but WHY have MMOGs become 'ultra-restrictive disneyland rides'?

The root of the problem lies in the fact that ALL MMOG developers and publishers are operating within an antiquated business paradigm that really wasn't appropriate to begin with. Let me explain...

The average MMOG development team now has around 60-70 people, all working to create a "vast" synthetic "living world" for hundreds of thousands of players to enjoy. On the face of it it's laughably absurd to think that a mere 60 people could ever accomplish such a monumental feat, within a 2-3 year development calendar no less!

The average MMOG costs between $15-20 million to develop. Movies, in contrast, often cost $100 million, or more (the tab for Waterworld was $340 million +), to develop. The disparity is striking to say the least.
Movie makers spend $100 million to produce 2 hours worth of content, MMOG makers spend $20 million to produce months and years worth of content. WTF is wrong with this picture!!?

All is not lost though brother(?), hope is on the horizon! Thank the Gods of gaming, we have Pioneers like Tim Sweeney, John Carmack, and Sam McGrath and the Stringer bros., Trevor & Travis (Project Offset), and companies like BioGraphic Technologies (Game AI), Emergent Game Technologies (Grid computing) that are changing the way MMOGs will be made in the near future. To sum up, here's what I think the future of MMOG development might look like in 2010:

Unknown

post continued...

General Development teams: 9-30 people (the brains behind the game, managers, level devs.,etc.)
Graphics Design teams: Architectural design, 10-20 people (buildings, furniture, spaceship interiors, etc.)
Environmental design, 30-40 people (trees, bushes, mountains, caves, etc.)
Population design, 30-40 people (Mobs, NPCs, cats and dogs, birds, bugs, etc.)
Mechanical design, 20-30 people (Vehicles, guns, gadgets, armor, etc.)
Sound Design team: 7-10 people (not including the orchestra!)
Independent Contractors/troubleshooters 40-100 people (customer service, programmers, Engineers)

Project budgets: $150-250 million, covering the life-span of the game

Customer outlay, initial: Free to download and "play".
optional monthly maintenance fee: $9.95 (basic), $19.95 (Gold), $29.95 (platinum)
Auction fees: $1. min., $10. max per item
Customized Avatar: $99.95 per
Customized Pet: $99.95 per
Customized dwelling: $19.95-$99.95
Etc., etc., etc.

Unknown

Dang it, Nightphantom, stop scarein' me!

Unknown

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Originally posted by combatmedic1
just think the Average age of the Common MMO gamer will go from 25-30 the 35-40......creepy

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I think your right man...i just hope we can get more girlies to play MMOGs

Darkchronic

I really hope your MMO model doesn't happen.