The Next BIG MMORPG?

Huntn

When WoW came out, I had no idea it was going to be so HUGE. I think you could guess it was going to big when the beta/stress test ballooned to hundreds of thousands of players.

Besides speculating on your favorites, and the amount of forum discussion here at MMORPG.com, are there other sources that might reveal which MMORPG is going to be the next blockbuster?

I know it all boils down to a new game's concept, content and game play. I'm secretly hoping Hero's Journey will live up to it's hype.

What's the word on D&D Online, and RF-Online? My impression is that they have not made much of an impact.

-Hunt'n

hercules

Since WoW made it with no new game concept(blizzard openly admitted this on many interviews and said they are refining rather then doing anything new) I would say new concept is not what sells the millions of copies.

Brand name+smooth launch + good hype does.

Possible big sellers-star trek online,vanguard(fav with the old crowd) and LOTR online but doubt any will pass the 1 million mark globally.

Cleffy

Huxley and Age of Conan look to be the heavy hitters of 2006/2007. They have the graphics, the press, and some interesting gameplay features. Also Granado Espada has a large following in Korea so you know that will have record numbers simply from the user base in Korea. Also Ragnarok Online 2 has a huge following in Japan and the Philipinnes which will also most likely take it to huge numbers. Doubt anything you have the shove out $50 to pay 2 play will do well.

verdantrex

Hero's Journey is the game I'm most anticipating, but the game that I think has the best potential to be "HUGE" shares many traits with WoW... popular license, mixture of "refining" with some new ideas... but this one goes in directions WoW would never dare.

Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures

Just three races, but the 23 classes so far announced/revealed sound really awesome. For example, they have a WoW-ish warlock class (demonologist), but then they have another warlock class that takes it a step up, making the *player* a demon, with magic melee powers.  Likewise, there is a necromancer that controls the undead, and then another class, the Lich, where you *are* the Undead. 

AoC also has a super rich sword-n-sorcery world that did much to influence much of the fantasy that has come in the 70 years since Howard wrote his stories.  There's also an emphasis on gore, violence, sex and (probably "near") nudity that will appeal to many, many people.   If WoW feels watered down in some respects, Age of Conan promises to be the "real deal."  And I think it will be a huge hit.

Having said that, I will say what many will probably say... World of Warcraft was probably an anomaly, a one time deal, like the original 1977 Star Wars movie.  I doubt we will see another MMO hit those sort of numbers any time soon.  With so many MMOs on the way, they will dilute each other's numbers (and WoW's).  The MMO playing market will grow, but no other MMO is likely to ever dominate the market quite the way WoW does right now.

That's okay... Age of Conan with a million players will rock just as much as WoW with 6 million. 

V

Huntn

---

Originally posted by verdantrex

Having said that, I will say what many will probably say... World of Warcraft was probably an anomaly, a one time deal, like the original 1977 Star Wars movie.  I doubt we will see another MMO hit those sort of numbers any time soon.  With so many MMOs on the way, they will dilute each other's numbers (and WoW's).  The MMO playing market will grow, but no other MMO is likely to ever dominate the market quite the way WoW does right now.
That's okay... Age of Conan with a million players will rock just as much as WoW with 6 million. 
V

---

It had to of had its roots in the hundreds of thousands of Blizzard RTS fans and spread by word of mouth. Possibly genius, is allowing hundreds of thousands to beta test it.
-Hunt'n

sarbonn

I tend to believe we don't have anything on the radar that is going to be the next big MMORPG, but what will make it is most likely the brainchild of a respected gaming company rather than an intellectual franchise. Star Trek has been mentioned here in this thread, but unless it is done by a highly respected name in gaming, and I mean HUGELY respected, you're not going to see the success the designers are really praying for.

Bioware announced it is designing a game. That, to me, is the kind of respected name you need. Much like Blizzard, Bioware has the respect name going for it. This doesn't mean it will be a success, but their reputation is strong enough to assure people they aren't going to be another SOE or any of the many others that developed or took over less than stellar games.

This is why you won't see the next big thing from SOE (their customer service is atrocious and the community is mostly in agreement there), EA (bottom line financially is more important than good game making), or any company that is struggling to make it and hasn't gone through the rigors of maintaining a large subscription based game. Therefore, I'd watch those big names that aren't in MMORPGs right now and see what they are intending. No one would have suspected Blizzard was going to create the most popular MMORPG two or so years ago, but they are one of a very small handful of companies that had the reputation to do so.

Huntn

---

Originally posted by sarbonn
No one would have suspected Blizzard was going to create the most popular MMORPG two or so years ago, but they are one of a very small handful of companies that had the reputation to do so.

---

Reputation = legions of dedicated fans.

-Hunt'n

sarbonn

---

Originally posted by Huntn




Originally posted by sarbonn
No one would have suspected Blizzard was going to create the most popular MMORPG two or so years ago, but they are one of a very small handful of companies that had the reputation to do so.

Reputation = legions of dedicated fans.

-Hunt'n

---

They had one other thing going for them that MMORPGs before them really lacked (aside from maybe DAOC), and that is a company with the reputation of NOT releasing a game until it was ready. Few companies can claim to have that attribute in their favor. One of the things I kept hearing over and over was that WoW would not be released until Blizzard decided it was ready. And for the most part, they lived up to that reputation. Yeah, they're having some problems now, but those problems are based on the current paradigm never being designed for multiple millions of players, as the break through number was always 100,000+. 4 to 6 million kind of throws things out of whack, and Blizzard is understandably having a difficult time dealing with the ramifications of that. They are also faced with the possibility that an upgrade in server hardware might be both good and bad at the same time as it is an immediate need right now, but with game fall off, which hasn't happened yet, those servers may be a luxury for a much smaller game base in the future.

Unfortunately, even they don't have a crystal ball to know what's going to be happening two years down the line as this business is very finicky sometimes, where the greatest name in the business can be a has been next year. I doubt Blizzard is in fear of becoming a has been, but its intellectual property must weather whatever may come down the line. Fortunately for them, there's really not all that much great stuff coming down the line to nibble at their foundation.

Huntn

---

Originally posted by sarbonn

Yeah, they're having some problems now, but those problems are based on the current paradigm never being designed for multiple millions of players, as the break through number was always 100,000+. 4 to 6 million kind of throws things out of whack, and Blizzard is understandably having a difficult time dealing with the ramifications of that. They are also faced with the possibility that an upgrade in server hardware might be both good and bad at the same time as it is an immediate need right now, but with game fall off, which hasn't happened yet, those servers may be a luxury for a much smaller game base in the future.

---

According to my friend who is still into WoW, server log on times have steadily gotten worse. When I was playing on Dalaran as recently as Jan06, that was not an issue.

-Hunt'n

zethcarn

Vanguard

Evelknievel

Ahh.. Simple question and to the point..

Warhammer Online debuted for Summer 2007

http://www.warhammeronline.com/english/media/video/easterEggs/WAR_teaser.html

http://www.warhammeronline.com/english/home/index.php

Already popular for the past 20 years in the Comic/Hobbie Stores and a Huge Fan Base.

World fo Warcraft got alot of concepts from the Warhammer line, unfortunate for them, WoW was released first. But this game will be HUGE!

Esp the Mythic following in Dark Age of Camelot.

Warhammer.com

firebrand

Currently, one of the most popular MMOs, is Eve Online due to its depth and concept. 

Im a big fan of concept and pvp myself so ill have to choose Darkfall.

 

SpiritofGame

Thanks to World of Warcraft (even people who don't play MMORPGs have heard of this game now), the once limited, niche market for MMORPGs has cracked wide-open which may create the perfect climate for a few watershed "golden age" MMORPGs to be released.

Note: NONE of the new games may even come close to the subscription numbers that WoW has ... nor is that very important.

Age of Conan -- first "Mature" MMORPG created.  Catering first to "casual" players (high-fives to WoW), AoC may develop long-term "hardcore" appeal with its primitive, brutal gameworld and potential expansions.  Funcom has consistently shown its corporate ability to think "outside the box."  (Watch for the beta buzz once this game starts testing).

Hero's Journey -- may be the best-balanced, best-written, most roleplayer-friendly game ever produced.  Currently has a small but dedicated fanbase following its progress, but based on unofficial FAQs and offsite-GM information, this could be the sleeper hit of 2006.

Vanguard: SoH -- EverQuest redux? Possibly.  If the game is large, complex and hard-to-master, it may attract a strong core-gamer following.  This is going to be a love-it or hate-it game.

For 2007 -- WAR (Warhammer Online) -- has the same alpha buzz that World of Warcraft did.  Is this "DAoC 2 Warhammer style"?  Has potential to be the WoW of 2007.

nexus42

I don't think the next big MMORPG is even on the table yet. The titles mentioned above will undoubtedly be successful to one degree or another; I think they will all be profitable at least. I further predict that within the next ten years MMORPGs will be quite commonplace, to the level of grandmothers playing them like they log onto pogo.com right now.

Now 'big' doesn't necessarily mean that hard core MMORPG fans will dig them. I think user numbers are in direct correlation to ease-of-use. A 'casual' game like WoW broke all the records, what will the future hold for a game that is even more easy to access?

WoW's numbers are awe-inspiring right now because it's the first 'main stream' hit. In a decade those numbers will have been vastly eclipsed by other games.

admriker444

I guess it depends on how you define "Big"

If its WoW, then I would say nothing will match it. If its the pre-WoW standard which usually meant 500k players was a huge hit, then I'd say there are a few possibilities.

Vanguard - my prediction is it will take 200k players from EQ1, 200k players from EQ2 and 300k-500K players from WoW. This game is something the EQ fans are drooling over and the true sequel. WoW gamers, the hardcore ones anyone have been wanting something more complex than WoW for a while and Vanguard should appeal to them.  Im guessing possible hit of 700-900k subscribers

Star Trek - No way this one will be a hit with only one faction at launch. And with Starfleet as your only option, out goes the ex-SWG players hoping to find a virtual world in which to play in. Maybe it gets 150k players at launch but quickly falls to 50k-75k range.

Age of Conan - a lot of hardcore conan fans out there. This one is anybody's guess on how well it could do.

LOTR - Big flop, outdated graphics and not even in beta yet. Game has spent far too long in development. No pvp and cant play the bad guy role. I'd guess 75k-100k tops.

Fallen Earth - a game that will most likely appeal to people like me, hardcore older gamers who loved rpg games like the Fallout series. Great potential for RP. Niche appeal im thinking so around 150k players.

 

Sinn

I'd say Age of Conan will dominate

but looking down the road

Huxley could possibley be a massive success both on console and pc if done right

Star Trek when it comes near may have some huge success

Marvel or DC mmorpg may have some success

those are the only huges one i can think of right now..i want to see some innovations but i doubt that will happen for along time..

 

for now I'll just wait for innovative games like Spore

Pantastic

I haven't seen any really recent numbers, but I would be suprised if Everquest I and Everquest II both have over 200k subscribers, especially 200k that aren't doubled up. I think the estimate of 700k to 900k for Vanguard is just insanely high, especially since I don't think the game has broad appeal at all. I'ts Everquest redone, so it will appeal to people who like forced grouping and raids, but isn't going to appeal to a wider audience.

I expect Warhammer Online to be the biggest splash, Games Workshop has a lot of people who play their games or who have played and might give it a try from the name. I don't think they'll match Blizzard, though, since they don't have much of a computer game name and an MMO isn't much like the tabletop game.

TormentTom

Vanguard and Warhammer Online

I have heard from certain sources that Vanguard is having some issues for the past year (in closed testing).

Complaints that it's too hardcore. Hardcore is what I am looking for, so it doesn't sway my anticipation.
Heard the UI isn't very userfriendly, but Shadowbane's absolutely atrocious UI fit like a semi-decent glove after an hour.

Warhammer Online sounds top notch. Only complaint is that the AI kicks in when players completely take over a city, and kicks them out.

Huntn

---

Originally posted by TormentTom
Warhammer Online sounds top notch. Only complaint is that the AI kicks in when players completely take over a city, and kicks them out.

---

The screenshots of Warhammer Online look very appealing. Could that could be cause it looks similiar to WoW? /ducks Not that I am suggesting that WoW is a game to be emulated. I've crashed and burned with it but I still love and miss the environments like Feralas and Un'goro crater.

-Hunt'n

JoHosephat

Who was the poor mis-informed soul who said that Blizzard came through on their unwritten "promise", to release WoW only when it was complete?

Anyone play release? I did.

I played release, and 4 months after. They should have gotten their asses sued for the lies they spewed. They promised an honor system, battlegrounds, pretty much things that drew 75% of the playerbase on the PK servers.

When I quit, they weren't around, and weren't even on the horizon.

Blizzard released a game that wasn't bugged to hell. But it definitely wasn't complete.

Sift

Umm I played beta and release of WoW and played for about a year ((Still have my WoW collectors edition box and map I love it)) . Yes the battlegrounds should have been on release but no the game was not very buggy on release I have no Idea what your talking about. Ya it was a pain to finish some of the quests because 1000000 people were trying to do the same one as you but thats not Blizzards fault. I never had to call a GM once with the game and I cant say that about any other MMO I have ever played other then Eve ((because I played for 10 min and felt like killing myself)) and Legacy online ((ohhh boy do I miss that game the first Simcity type MMO as far as I could tell even if it wasnt it was still great and I miss it))

As to what the next big MMO is going to be... here are my thoughts on that. Nothing will be as big as WoW has been for a very very long time. But having said that the ones I can see being big are

1. Lord of the Rings ((Just based on the name I really dont know if its going to be any good))
2. Age of Conan ((Diffrent type of Fantasy MMO))
3. Vangaurd ((Dont know why but I hear alot about it))
4. As far as forth I donno I would say Star Trek or Warhammer both could be good although I think warhammer will be bigger because Fantasy seems to sell better then Sci-Fi

Non of these companys have Blizzard name brand power though. I will admit I pre-ordered WoW before I knew what it was really all about and guess what... I dont regret it, it was one of the best MMO's I have played because it was polished and played on any frickin computer. No its not as in-depth as most MMO's but sometimes it fun to just play something a little more simple.

Here is what I would tell any of these companys. Make sure your game can play on crappy computers as well. Don't limit your market like EQ2 did to itself.

Haxademic

I agree with Sift.  WoW isn't as problematic as people make it out to be, especially compared to other games.

The only MMO games that I have tried aside from WoW are EVE and RFO.  I couldn't stand RFO because I found the controls and interface to be too sloppy.  Sure, you could get used to them, but why bother when another developer takes the time to at least polish the control scheme.

One of the things that allows WoW to keep growing is the environment that new players are put into: a new character is usually surrounded by other new characters.  Unlike EVE, which penalizes you for having multiple characters, there are distinct advantages to having multiple characters in WoW.  Therefore, experienced players most always have alts of various levels, and new players don't have to be alone in an empty space.

WoW's navigation and interface are very intuitive, and you immediately have objectives within seconds of creating a character.  I think that's why it draws in people that normally wouldn't even play video games.

A game that is created on the basis of refinement, like WoW, will be very tough to eclipse.

Thrakk

no one has mentioned darkfall, that game to me seems the most balanced. The graphics arent so bad either.
I have a question, I am a fan of first person rpgs like lands of lore and morrowind. Is there any mmorpg that might appeal to me, a morrowind fan?

Thrakk

no one has mentioned !!!!darkfall!!!!, that game, to me, seems the most balanced. The graphics arent so bad either.
I have a question, I am a fan of first person rpgs like lands of lore, mm6, and morrowind. Is there any mmorpg that might appeal to me, a morrowind fan?

stucool

It's tough to predict a hit MMO. I would say Age of Conan or Lord of the Rings. But, I think companies are missing the boat on what could be huge sellers in the MMO gaming industry. What about a MMO that is not fantasy based? Maybe a "Underworld" type MMO. Vampires, Werewolves and such. How about a good Civil War MMO? Heres one, a MMO where people want to get into politics. We see it and talk about it all the dang time, why not live it in a game. I believe, really, if Marvel was to invest in a MMO, it would be HUGE. Think about teaming with 2 friends, Spider-Man, and Wolverine. Man, it would be cool, and profitable.  

Pantastic

I agree about the fantasy bit, I'm suprised at how few non-fantasy MMOs there are.

I don't think Darkfall will be widlly popular, pretty-open-PVP with fairly strong (not sure how hard gear is to replace) penalties for death is not the formula for mass appeal. I will probably give Darkfall a try, but I don't expect it to be all that big. Age Of Conan could be good, but the fact that it appears that you'll need to be in a player guild starting before you even play the online part of the game might be its downfall.