Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
Will this game Break the 2 Million Subscriber Mark?
Evelknievel
Member UncommonPosts: 2,964
So, whats your best and logical guess?
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
If Warhammer rocks.. there will be alot more than 2 million players.. and all thanks to WoW :P
And more people just means more competition for the PvP aspect of the game which to me is just great.
I recently read an artical on WAR when Mystic first got the contract, a ten man team started out as, they quickly cancled there other projects putting them on "hold" and the teams were pushed towards WAR and a few to DaoC to work on what needs to be done there.
This game is going to be huge, the Warhammer fan base is already huge and so is DaoC's, sure there are players who play both, but its not the full fan base, easy 2million, probably second biggest on market once its out there as Burning crusade is going to hold a few people in sway.
Die Noctique, By Day and Night
I would like to say "yeah! sure!" but i won't, you never know
But i do agree, this looks like a big one! good devs, great ideas and a great IP seems like a winning combination... then again it is the same of SWG and i SO hope this do not end up like that..
But i comfort myself knowing Mythic is NOT $OE!
"If you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, if you teach him how to fish, you feed him for a lifetime"
According to www.mmogchart.com only 3 games have had 2million or more subscribers. 2 of those 3 Lineage 1 and 2 owe a great deal of their success to South Korea, and WAR, if I understand it correctly, is not (at least at launch) going to be in that market. So eliminate Lineage 1 and 2 from comparison and we are left with WOW. Clearly in North America/Europe WOW is unprecended in its succes as an mmo. I think the questions are: How did Blizzard do it? and Can Mythic learn from the Blizzard example for their game?
Without getting too deep into it, Blizzard brought in a massive amount of new players to the mmo scene. People who never before played an mmo. I think they were able to do that because they already had a huge number of fans of their RTS games. Fans who liked Blizzard enough to try out something new, and once they started.... Well I think we all know how addictive mmo's can be
Can Mythic do this with WAR? Im not sure they can. I am guessing (and I have no data to back this up at all
) that a Warhammer fan is more likley to already be playing an mmo than Blizzards RTS fans were. And of course Mythic fans are already playing an mmo (safe guess?). Even if my guess about Warhammer fans is wrong, I am pretty sure that there are less Warhammer fans than there are/were Blizzard RTS fans. My point is that I dont think Mythic can bring in anywhere near the amount of "First Time" mmo subscribers that Blizzard did. This will limit them.
That will leave us with the question how many subsribers to other mmo's can Mythic get to swtich to WAR? I am not sure about this at all. IF Mythic can grab a good chunk from WOW and other mmo's, IF they do... 2 million subscribers for WAR is something they might do. But Im just not sure if it will happen. I sure hope it does.
Mythic's other mmo my beloved Dark Age of Camelot had at its best 250k. I think if they double that or even quadrouple it that will be a big win for Mythic. And I think that is something they can achive. But 2 million? Im just not sure.
Kilfoz Vox Minstrel Percival DAOC
Axorok Minstrel Percival DAOC
Azorov Minstrel Percival DAOC
Here's 2 Cents from a longtime WoW gamer (played it in beta and still play)
I voted yes
I might be the most objectionable WoW player ever. I am by no means a fanboi. I love the game...HOWEVER! i always give new MMO's a chance and see them for what the are and respect certain ones.
Respect. I have a respect for DAOC. I tried it twice and couldn't get into it. I have a group of friends that are faithful to that game and are a part of its tight knit community. As a WoW player, i envy that seeing as how the WoW community was shot of a cannon and is kind of like the ADD of MMO communities.
So for starters, Mythic has a record of building a solid community, even if it is a small one.
Timing? WAR will be coming out just in time for all of the hardcore WoW gamers to have finished alot of the Burning Crusade expansion. ( Not me, it will take me forever). It's being released at a very prime time. WoW and EQ2 will be 2.5 years old. Even people that love the game will be looking for greener pastures.
PvP. I love WoW PvP. I also hear my friend talking about DAOC PvP and i know Mythic did a good job with world PvP etc. So i expect WAR to have a solid system.
I look at it like this. Mythic has had plenty of time to develop this game. They also had plenty of time to speak directly to the small, tight community of DAOC to see what's good and what's bad. They have also seen the opposing games struggles and victories. That's a setup for a success if they do it right. It is a big IF.
Conclusion. WAR has a good chance and potential to give WoW a run for its money and gain 2 million subscribers. i am the type of guy who will go and buy an MMO for the 30 day trial to see how good it is. I did it with DDO, which i liked. But it couldn't hold me. but i ALWAYS give them a chance to win me over.
Come Q2 2007, I'll still be playing WoW but i might also be playing WAR!
And if Mythic fails, they would have squandered a HUGE opportunity. So...don't EFF it up and i'll see you in Beta.
World Of Warcraft
Azazel
Lvl 60 Warrior
Bleeding Hollow [ PvP ]
(Power Word Drunk)
Guild Wars
Blade Nightstalker
(Zombies Of Death)
http://vincenzo7.1up.com
I don't think there is any question. The combination of the people who Love Warhammer IP mixed with all the DOAC/Mythic fans will push the initial burst of subscribers. Than the many WoW subscribers that are quickly losing interest in World of Raidcraft will quickly jump ship when they find out that PvP does not suck if done right and Mythic has shown that they have the ability to create a fun and balanced PvP environment, and this will bring the numbers up even further. I think that there are plenty of WoW subscribers who by the time this is released will be or have been ready for something better. WoW has its pluses, but for me and many others the negatives far outweigh the positives when it comes to the enjoyability (is that even a word) of that game.
I hope not...
I hope the WoW crowd stay in WoW, and never leave it, and the real MMO players can get a nice haven in a game like this one, from Mythic, the kings of RvR. I REALLY do not want to see the WoW crowd, ever again...
So.. I hope it is a bit too complex and adult, so that they leave in a month or so, then get a nice solid 500k-1mil audience of good oldfashioned DaoC -mentality players.
"This is not a game to be tossed aside lightly.
It should be thrown with great force"
I agree with that! Im really getting excited about this game. When DAOC came out I had only played EQ for a little bit and I was still a mmo/pvp n00b. So I missed out on all the early days of DAOC's pvp. This time I will be ready! Cant wait!
Kilfoz Vox Minstrel Percival DAOC
Axorok Minstrel Percival DAOC
Azorov Minstrel Percival DAOC
I don't think that 2 millions subscriber mark is realist...
It will either have issues to reach 1 million...or it will break WoW records and prolly reach 10 millions...I don't see much chances for a in between 1 and 6 millions.
If it is good, there is no reason for it to cap at 2 millions...it will spread more and more...if it is not good, then it might not even break 100k.
Warhammer is a strong franchise. I still don't digest to see many races mixing in 1 faction...I mean...come on, elfs don't mix in the SAME units as humans, not even for elite forces. The RvR setting is ideal, but on a race vs race basic (and some races divide in many factions). Having 3 factions...I have doubts...anyway, if they mess it up completely, depending on how they make PvE they may actually save the day, PvE is more important than PvP for a massive success...but mixing elves and humans in the same unit...they already lost me PvP wise (not that I ever enjoy online PvP, but still, in the case of Warhammer, I am willing to listen, if a game setting can PvP convince me, it is Warhammer...but mixing elves with humans...I don't see that convincing me).
Having a DAoC mentality, no matter how much the peoples on this site like it, will cap the game at around 250k players in the best scenario.
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
Not really interested in the exact numbers, if Mythic does a good job they'll have a hit on their hands and we'll see a lot of people playing WAR. The competition will not really be WoW by then as most players from there will be looking for new games to try, the competition will be Age of Conan, Vanguard and other MMO's that are released between now and WAR release date. As for WoW subscribers the only question is if they will pick up a new MMO when they /cancel their WoW subscription. Oh, and don't get me wrong, WoW 1-59 is great and 60-69 will probably be good too but with no decent end game you can't really hold a subscrition based player base locked down for much longer...
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
I do understand how mixing certain races in a aliance can make you scratch your head initially. I had some of the same reaction with DAoC Midgard Races. Specfically Dwarves being aligned with Trolls and Kobolds. So I can respect/understand your perspective.
World Of Warcraft
Azazel
Lvl 60 Warrior
Bleeding Hollow [ PvP ]
(Power Word Drunk)
Guild Wars
Blade Nightstalker
(Zombies Of Death)
http://vincenzo7.1up.com
I played WOW for a few weeks (not giving it much of a chance to be sure). It didn't grab me. I enjoy PvP far more than PvE and to be honest I think a big part of why I gave up on WOW was that I already had a happy PvP home in DAOC.
To agree with Harafnir... Chat in the Barrons was simply horrid and a clear indication that WOW had attracted at least some of the kind of players that.... to put it lightly do not enhance my play experience. BUT I also have to agree with Vincenzo that it is a broad generalization and not quite fair.
I hope WAR is great, and I hope it is a big success for Mythic. It saddens me that DAOC is not as populated as she once was. So what I am really hoping for is a new RvR centered game i can move to and enjoy for years and years to come. But as Vincenzo pointed out... If WAR gets a million or two million or even 500k subscribers there are going to be some of the kinds of players we may not like so much. That is the price of success. And after all we can just ignore them.
Kilfoz Vox Minstrel Percival DAOC
Axorok Minstrel Percival DAOC
Azorov Minstrel Percival DAOC
I think we are underrating the Warhammer fans. No, it is unprobable they are playing a Mmorpg because of being warhammer fans, more likely they play RTS
Anyhow, having it go over WoW number is unfeasible at best and even 2 millions seems pretty high. That is because they are releasing in US/EU/Australia/NZ only kind of market. WoW has a bit over 2 millions subscribers from those markets, so unless they release in asia as well and they get big success there too, they won't have such number.
But 500K? sure, without problems. maybe a million if enough warhammer fans get dragged in, miniature tabletop gaming/painting can take a lot of your time.
I don't particular care for more. As long as they do not get greedy, $oe style, I'm happy with 500k, 200k, 100k, or 75k. under that, probably not. But i'm positive they will have at least that, most probably much more
"If you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, if you teach him how to fish, you feed him for a lifetime"
"Time.." I chuckled "I hold no secret to time, though it's mystery puzzles me. Deny it's existence and lie to myself not with hopes of a quickened pace."
Haha, boohoo you got your feelings hurt by a post like that. I think most of us realize WoW has a poor community in general and would definitely shy away from the crowd that game attracted. (nude patches and chainmail bikinis have a way of grabbing snot nosed 12 year olds)
But as for your question as to why someone would think WAR would get more subscribers than DAoC is...well...the market has grown rapidly, my dear good friend. Also there are a lot of tabletop fans that I'm sure will be drawn in as well by WAR's dark allure.
Finally your analogy about the independent record didn't fit at all. Oh well.
"Time.." I chuckled "I hold no secret to time, though it's mystery puzzles me. Deny it's existence and lie to myself not with hopes of a quickened pace."
Vincenco... I will not run into some argument here, just say.
If you think I am insulting, and the WoW community a wonder of maturity and levelheaded intelligent beings.... Then that says a lot more about you, than it says about me.
Carry on. Still dreaming back to the good old days when MMOs were for people with their own credit card, not their mommys.
"This is not a game to be tossed aside lightly.
It should be thrown with great force"
Haha, boohoo you got your feelings hurt by a post like that. I think most of us realize WoW has a poor community in general and would definitely shy away from the crowd that game attracted. (nude patches and chainmail bikinis have a way of grabbing snot nosed 12 year olds)
But as for your question as to why someone would think WAR would get more subscribers than DAoC is...well...the market has grown rapidly, my dear good friend. Also there are a lot of tabletop fans that I'm sure will be drawn in as well by WAR's dark allure.
Finally your analogy about the independent record didn't fit at all. Oh well.
I thought the analogy was good. There are some people who love bands when no one likes them and their experience is ruined if the band becomes mega popular ( I dont get it but it happens). The implication is that if the "wow crowd.." kids dident play, WOW would be a better game. Its not 100% analogus but its pretty good.
Kilfoz Vox Minstrel Percival DAOC
Axorok Minstrel Percival DAOC
Azorov Minstrel Percival DAOC
Haha, boohoo you got your feelings hurt by a post like that. I think most of us realize WoW has a poor community in general and would definitely shy away from the crowd that game attracted. (nude patches and chainmail bikinis have a way of grabbing snot nosed 12 year olds)
But as for your question as to why someone would think WAR would get more subscribers than DAoC is...well...the market has grown rapidly, my dear good friend. Also there are a lot of tabletop fans that I'm sure will be drawn in as well by WAR's dark allure.
Finally your analogy about the independent record didn't fit at all. Oh well.
son. i didnt have my feelings hurt. thanks. and i didnt ask why WAR would have more subscrivers than daoc. i asked how could one wish for 500k daoc "minded" players if only 250k have existsed at once?
thank you. son.
World Of Warcraft
Azazel
Lvl 60 Warrior
Bleeding Hollow [ PvP ]
(Power Word Drunk)
Guild Wars
Blade Nightstalker
(Zombies Of Death)
http://vincenzo7.1up.com
However WoW has brought lots of people into online gaming, and WoW's PVP servers alone have more people on them than the previous big hit games that offered PVP. Not to mention people who will be tired of DAOC, CoV, UO, and other PVP games and looking for something new.
Supreme Leader Hades
The Imperial Aces
Discord: https://discord.gg/CjBP4dc
Games I've played/tried out:WAR, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, AoC, EQ1, EQ2, WoW, Vangaurd, FFXI, D&DO, Lineage 2, Saga Of Ryzom, EvE Online, DAoC, Guild Wars,Star Wars Galaxies, Hell Gate London, Auto Assault, Grando Espada ( AKA SoTNW ), Archlord, CoV/H, Star Trek Online, APB, Champions Online, FFXIV, Rift Online, GW2.
Game(s) I Am Currently Playing:
GW2 (+LoL and BF3)