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Star Wars Galaxies Cannot Recover
akevv
Member Posts: 208
SWG has been live now for three years. Three official versions later, the subscriber numbers have not reached the expected goals of Lucas Arts or Sony Online. Historically, the game was released prematurely with content such as space and jedi missing to meet artificial shipping deadlines. The first version of the game had potentially the most issues of all. Imbalances in special attacks and combat modifiers led to the development of the Combat Upgrade and Rebalance (CURB). The CURB was being tested by a handful of dedicated players and the results were positive. Unfortunately, in the same timeframe, World of Warcraft was released and captured a market that was at least the same size as SWG at the time. The CURB was deemed as not being aggressive enough in bringing a modern playstyle (faster paced, less complex), and was scrapped in favor of an alternate, the Combat Upgrade.
The Combat Upgrade rendered many stockpiles of equipment valueless, and accordingly, SWG began to shed subscribers. This CU was the first taste the subscriber base had in regard to the lengths that SOE and LA would go to attract new customers. Eventually, the CU attracted enough new and return players to generate a subscriber base that would have been envied prior to WoW's release. A measure of subscriber interest was written, in the form of a digital download expansion that would determine the future of the game. Sell more than x copies of Trials of Obi-Wan and the current CU version of the game stays. Alternately, if the expansion did not sell, the decision to sell an even more aggressively paired down game would be put into action. As time unfolds, it becomes apparent to the companies that Trials of Obi-Wan has not brought in the return and new subscribers they desire and the decision to push the New Game Enhancements is made.
With little to no feedback from the current user base, the new version is met with an astounding amount of cancellations and negative feedback. SOE and LA both admit publically that the NGE has not been met with much enthusiasm, but that they are going to see this version through to its conclusion. The flawed logic in this is that this particular version of the game is the least popular with the subscriber base. Despite being around for over seven months, the NGE has failed to meet even the reduced CU subscription levels.
Herein lies the terrible truth for SOE, LA and the fan base of SWG:
SWG in ANY of the previous forms (NGE, CU or original recipe) cannot succeed.
The game has sold nearly two million copies since release. Current subscription levels are estimated to be about 120,000 direct subscriptions with another 50,000 having access to the game through the Station Pass. This level represents about 1/3 the amount of players at the peak of SWG. At this point in time, the game has been sold to anyone and everyone who would have been interested in it. There is no possible way to market this game to anyone else. This is why all of the advertising revenue spent since the NGE release has failed to attract a new player base. The simple truth of the market is that there is noone else to solicit.
Where does this leave LA and SOE? Their marketing folks certainly know by now that they will be fortunate to hold onto the 120,000 they currently have. They will not make major changes to the game, nor will they risk re-introduction of a previous version that would potentially splinter subscribers. They have analyzed this market quite carefully and know that a previous version may spike subscriptions for a few months, but the players will eventually leave (as they did before under the previous systems), most likely for another game and not the NGE. In addition, veteran subscriptions would leave the NGE servers, making them feel quite empty, further alienating potential new subscriptions (of which a severely limted number are available).
The only way to rectify this situation, the downward spiral of SWG, is to release a totally new game. Now that LA has some experience with Star Wars as a massively multiplayer title, they will know what to expect as far as subscription levels (~500,000) and player expectations. SOE at this point probably has a better than 50% chance of receiving the contract for the new SWG, but rest assurred that LA has been shopping for other potential partners. This new version of SWG is most likely under development as I write this, and we should hear something about it before th end of the year. All of the things the player base has wanted from SWG will be available, from release, such as atmospheric flight, bases with gun emplacements, and vehicles too. One thing that will stay will be Jedi as a starter profession. The new game will be available as early as next summer. LA knows full well they have little time to waste as new sci-fi titles are released.
We should all take a bit of solace in that SWG will finally be put to rest as the experiment that it was. The new edition will be compelling, complete, and coming soon!
Akevv Ostone
No Longer SWG Free 
Comments
Even though we have disagreements in how we got to where we are (no need to argue) and possibly the efficacy of releasing a previous version (pre-CU), we do agree on your final outcome:
A brand new Star Wars MMORPG is called for and most likely planned for.
Pray somebody else gets the contract. Because if SOE gets it, there is very little chance that bitter people such as myself will care about a new SOE fiasco. If LucasArts signs SOE to do another MMORPG version of Star Wars, it will be an even more monumental error than the NGE. SOE carries too much baggage.
It doesn't even matter if the playerbase is right or wrong about SOE. It would not make business sense to have to overcome all that hatred. No, I don't think SOE gets another contract from LucasArts on a Star Wars title...EVER.
I realize I said I quit. I never said it was forever
But comparing SWG to WoW is complete rubbish. Almost all MMOs are niche games. WoW is a phenomanon, and it has been proven that simply copying its formula is no guarantee of success (SOE has destroyed an entire game proving this).
I submit that pre-CU SWG, then, was a success in not only its subscription count, but in the happiness of its player base to actually play the game. I know of no other game created where players were happy to pay for 2, 5, even 8 concurrent accounts to play the full aspects of the game. If there are others that I don't know about, have they also undergone complete ruleset changes -- not once, but twice! -- like Galaxies? Probably not.
I thought EQ might qualify.
Have any of these games had major ruleset changes like Galaxies?
Have they maintained a "healthy" sub count for their niche with/without it?
EQ has had ruleset changes but not on the scale of SWG. They have always maintained healthy subs especially considering the age.
DAOC had a huge ruleset change when they released Frontiers, completely changing the RvR (pvp) of the game. They were also the big mmo to release a true "classic" server that was hugely successful. Their subs were consistant after Frontiers, but have dwindled over the last year with age.
L2 has remained fairly consistant on rulesets AFAIK. They have a very healthy subscription base.
The big difference between these games and SWG is that they all allowed multiple characters per server, but once a profession was chosen, it was locked in (standard). They are also games which have much more interdependancy of the classes, leading to large populations of dual and tripple accounts (healer, buffer, fighter typset). I think that if SWG had allowed multiple characters per server, you would have seen a fewer number of multiple account holders, just like the Jedi dropping their second accounts when they got their second slot.
-- xpaladin
[MMOz]
AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
I don't have any idea how they'd rectify it, since they've already writtn off the only real way to do it.
There's a sucker born every minute. - P.T. Barnum
Just thinking here...
If they did change the timeline (not to familiar with the EU, unlike others here
) to a time when jedi/force users were prevalent, there might be a way to have jedi in the game as a player class. However, this might not appeal to the older, episodes IV - VI, gamers; but it might be appealing to the younger, episodes I - III, gamers.
In such a timeline, you would need to scrap all the non-jedi professions and focus on different jedi subsets. Guardians, Sentinels, Counsulars and their dark side versions. If you did allow non-jedi professions, they would need to be treated like what you see in other games, the characters would be based on the fact that they are not normal smugglers, but instead elite versions.
Such a MMO game might succeed, but only if the game was designed around this concept and not changed into this from a prior development. So, I do not think that they would be able to make SWG into such a game, especially with all the baggage it is currently carrying. Also, the developers would have to accept that they might not be able to win over the older generation of SW fans.
Not sure where you got 120k subscribers from. Current estimates are that its currently sitting at 50k subscribers, with at most 6-10k logged in across all the servers. Don't forget that despite the second character given to people, (another reason for those people who earned theirs by grinding to Jedi,) some people still want a combat toon, an entertainer, and a crafter or two, so they have multiple accounts. So there are about 20k-40k people actually owning subscriptions.
Not that you can tell that in game. I went back for a month a few weeks ago. (Chimaera server) And it was utterly dead. I found 4 people in Mos Eisley, about 8 PVP'ers in Bestine, and 2 people at Kachiro on Kashyyyk, I only saw about three other people in game that was not afk. Even the afk entertainers are dead. The only place I saw any was in the Mos Eisley cantina. And Chimaera is considered to be the busy European server.
SWG is dead. Its just got so much inertia built up that SOE haven't realised it yet. (Translation: People who paid for 12 month subscriptions but have quit are still considered to be playing as far as SOE are concerned.)
Just thinking here...
If they did change the timeline (not to familiar with the EU, unlike others here
) to a time when jedi/force users were prevalent, there might be a way to have jedi in the game as a player class. However, this might not appeal to the older, episodes IV - VI, gamers; but it might be appealing to the younger, episodes I - III, gamers.
In such a timeline, you would need to scrap all the non-jedi professions and focus on different jedi subsets. Guardians, Sentinels, Counsulars and their dark side versions. If you did allow non-jedi professions, they would need to be treated like what you see in other games, the characters would be based on the fact that they are not normal smugglers, but instead elite versions.
Such a MMO game might succeed, but only if the game was designed around this concept and not changed into this from a prior development. So, I do not think that they would be able to make SWG into such a game, especially with all the baggage it is currently carrying. Also, the developers would have to accept that they might not be able to win over the older generation of SW fans.
I have always joked someone should make a game called Bounty Hunters Vs Jedi... So an ammendant to your idea... remove all classes except BH and Jedi and just expand those 2 lol...
I should be in charge of SOE. Too bad thats not an elected office eh?
Pre-nge SWG is a perfect example of how a disastorus crappy game can stay alive for 3 years because of its name "Star WARS"
If that game was not star wars it would be closed in the first month of release.
After hilarious NGE even thousands of whiners cried for a rollback, spereading negative feedback all over the internet WE as NGE community growing like you never realised!
Servers getting alive everyday.We are having massive PVP events
We are having FUN!
"I feel and see population on most servers are crowded than CU"
Yes fellas we are AHEAD CU and soon I think at the end of this year
"SWG WILL HAVE THE MOST SUBS IT EVER HAD" maybe 1 million(right now we are 200 or 300k)
I see new people everyday!
Now I KNOW your on drugs.
Subscribers at release of SWG was about 250k, which rose to 400k. The Combat Upgrade caused 50-100k people to quit, but a few people came back. CU-era the numbers settled between 300-350k but a lot of those subscribers weren't logged in but allowed their accounts to just run.
The NGE caused 250-300k accounts to be cancelled because of how atrocious and hideous the NGE is.
If you think that the population post-NGE is improving then you are on the only server that is increasing in size. I know that the last changes made by SOE just made EVEN MORE people quit.
Oh and Filips go check the SWG Official Forums. Virrago the forum mod has openly admitted that the NGE caused SWG to lose over 65% of its population at that time, and the numbers of subscribers are continuing to drop.
And 80% of the people you see new on your server will be people who are normally on another server. (Also confirmed by Virrago)
So you my friend are talking rubbish !!
For the Horde!
<blockquote><hr><i>Originally posted by LilT</i>
<b><blockquote>
<hr /><i>Originally posted by filips</i>
<b>
<p>Pre-nge SWG is a perfect example of how a disastorus crappy game can stay alive for 3 years because of its name "Star WARS"
If that game was not star wars it would be closed in the first month of release.</p>
<p><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Nah, most of the people i knew played it because they enjoyed the game, not because it was "star wars". Most of those people left with the CU. I could really care less about star wars, actually. I just enjoy a game that isnt about elfs and trolls with an immersive world.</span>
</p>
<p>After hilarious NGE even thousands of whiners cried for a rollback, spereading negative feedback all over the internet WE as NGE community growing like you never realised! </p>
<p>Servers getting alive everyday.We are having massive PVP events
We are having FUN! </p>
<p>"I feel and see population on most servers are crowded than CU"</p>
<p>Yes fellas we are AHEAD CU and soon I think at the end of this year </p>
<p>"SWG WILL HAVE THE MOST SUBS IT EVER HAD" maybe 1 million(right now we are 200 or 300k)</p>
<p>I see new people everyday!</p>
<p />
<p />
<p><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">I think/hope you are being sarcasting with the last part of that.</span>
</p></b>
<hr /></blockquote>
</b><hr></blockquote>
Please show me a recent official post they lost %60 subscriptions. Yes we lost thousands of people who useless greedy jedi alt crafters and alpha jedi.
Rest is here playing. And everyday thousands new players setteling in galaxy. Ah sorry you guys just look at mop for population sorry my friend mop is DEAD .
Go and search the official SWG forums, the posts are there. Believe us if you want or don't. But the facts are written on teh official SWG forums by an SOE Employee.
And I've noted your every post is like that of a rabid NGE flamer. You are just trying to start arguements for the sake of arguements.
And if you search the official SWG forums you will find the details of the port scan of the SWG forums that showed only 6000 people playing at peak US time earlier this year. (I.E. Post NGE) and things have gotten worse since then.
The NGE killed SWG, and its still killing it. Only Bria seems to have a relatively stable population, and thats because its mostly the few survivors from other serrvers moving across to Bria so they can actually log on and see another player instead of empty servers.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
*breathe*
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
*breathe*
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!!
*whew*
That drivel posted by filips is probably the funniest thing I've read all week.
That is just hysterical.
The uber fanboi Obraik isn't even dumb enough to say that stuff. He's at least smart enough to have a small grip on reality, even though he DOES see it through rose colored glasses.
But this dude.... just wow....
I didn't know people that stupid could figure out how to use a computer.
SWG Tempest: Cardo Dycen RIP
Eve: Cardoh Dycen
I support random drug testing for all SOE employees
I think that focusing on BH vs Jedi was a fatal flaw of SOE, actually. The game was set in the timeline between ANH and ESB, and you never saw a BH hunt a jedi in those films. A smuggler, yes. Not a jedi, though. This caused those that were for strict timeline adherence to dislike the game.
Yet SOE kept trying to strengthen the confilct between those two classes, and ignored the one thing that could have involved all of the various professions, the GCW.
Unltimately, you will run into Kylrathin's problem in a BH vs. Jedi game. Jedi are supposed to be vastly more powerful than the average person (therefore, the average BH). That is why a game that would focus on competing between dark and light jedi would appeal more to the "I wanna be Anakin" crowd.
I think that focusing on BH vs Jedi was a fatal flaw of SOE, actually. The game was set in the timeline between ANH and ESB, and you never saw a BH hunt a jedi in those films. A smuggler, yes. Not a jedi, though. This caused those that were for strict timeline adherence to dislike the game.
Yet SOE kept trying to strengthen the confilct between those two classes, and ignored the one thing that could have involved all of the various professions, the GCW.
Unltimately, you will run into Kylrathin's problem in a BH vs. Jedi game. Jedi are supposed to be vastly more powerful than the average person (therefore, the average BH). That is why a game that would focus on competing between dark and light jedi would appeal more to the "I wanna be Anakin" crowd.
That is actually not correct. Yes they used elements from that timeline as a BASIS for the game but they did speciifically say that this was THEIR timeline and not the time line of the story.
One thing I will point out is that Jedi and BH never really had an issue in the stories. BH usually went after smuggler types like Solo. Yes I know Vader used BH's to find Luke but how often did that happen?
Read between the lines of what is publically available, and you can gleen their plans fairly readily. The lack of an expansion for over a year and the removal of key attributes from the publish plan (such as player bases) leads to a new edition of the game. Content and resources that would have been rolled into an expansion is instead being utilized to develop the new version.
LA knows SWG cannot be resurrected to prior levels of subscriptions without a totally new edition with a "2" or even a new name attached. SOE is attractive as a publisher partner because of their infrastructure and the access to the current subscribers. If SOE keeps the servers, SOE will not be involved in the development per se, but will pay the unnamed sub contractor to write the game.
Akevv Ostone
No Longer SWG Free
I don't know about this. A new Star Wars game will have to have very high ratings for me to even consider buying if SOE is involved in the slightest. I understand that they have the infrastructure that would be appealing to developers (like in Vanguard's case), but as for myself and many others, having them state that they will not have anything to do with development won't be enough.
Actually, I'm glad that Vanguard went to SOE for publishing, as they will provide a perfect test case for SOE.
So yes this game is doomed, but only because LA and SOE discarded an entire community of players as expendable, and didn't care what we had to say about it.
If they do have a SWG2 planned, Jedi SHOULD be a starter profession. Every class should have a hero option to be able to undertake hardcore quests, but not redundantly tedious quests or raid based bullcrap, to be able to jump their character's effectiveness up.
This would give everyone a chance to have an "Alpha class" and also reflect the books and movies. Not every Jedi is equal in strength and power, not every human can fly as good and Han Solo or Wedge Antillees.