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The future of SWG...
shirlnt
Member UncommonPosts: 351
Although I participated in the "guess what date SWG will end" type thread for the fun of it, the truth is SWG will probably be around a lot longer than any of us (those who are waiting for it's death) expect. And it won't be the NGE fanboys that keep it alive, it will be the SW fanboys (notice, I did not say SWG fanboys). The ones to keep the game alive will be those that are such fans of Star Wars that they will buy practically anything with the Star Wars name on it. Take a pile of poo and label it "Official Star Wars Bantha Droppings" and they'd be lining up to get some. Why do I say it will be the SW fanboys rather than the NGE fanboys who keep SWG alive? Simply, there are a list of new MMOs coming out and while none of them may come close to all that pre-CU had, there will probably be plenty of WoW clones and when you cater to a group of people who want things quick and easy, you are catering to a group of people who will also get bored easily (plus you are creating a game that gets boring quickly). Fans of NGE will move on and find other things to play. Those who play the game because it's the only MMO Star Wars game available will continue to play it.
Honestly, it was not Star Wars that made pre-CU so great. Yes, people may have come because it was based on Star Wars and there were those who continued to hang around because it was Star Wars but pre-CU was great because of all the game offered. It may have been considered "hardcore" but it had a wide appeal to it. One could be hardcore, getting the just-right character build in skills and using the right type of weapon (damage type) for the kill but one could also pick a straight profession to master, pick up a weapon, and still have fun with the game (I personally paid little attention to the type of damage a weapon did compared to the type of damage a target was vulnerable to unless someone pointed it out). There were combat professions for people who enjoyed fighting games and there were other professions for people who preferred not to fight, and the ability to combine the two for people who wanted to dabble in both. Within combat, there was the choice to put one's avatar in the middle of combat or there was the choice to send something else in to take the damage (pets/droids) and there were choices about the fighting style one preferred....from shooting at a distance to fighting up close. There were plenty of things to do if one wanted to be social (group hunts, cantinas, guilds) but there were also things one could do solo. There was also a "balance" of pvp v pve once they took away TEF (some games have no pvp while others force EVERYONE to pvp). The game appealed to both men and women (believe it or not, not every female toon was played by a male and there were some male toons that were played by females /gasp).
For those of you who miss pre-CU yet hope another Star Wars mmo wil come out, ask yourself how would you feel if:
-when making your toon, there were only a few species to choose from and a limited amount of pre-set looks?
-the graphics were low-detailed/almost 2D-ish or cartoony?
-you had to choose 1 (combat) or 2 (combat/crafter) professions from a very limited list and were stuck with that profession unless you made a new toon?
-there was very little motive for people to interact socially (the need for entertainers to buff and cure mind wounds--and before you argue that no social interaction took place because of AFK ents, there were still lots of people in the server city cantinas visiting while they were listening to/watching ents)?
-the game was linear/quest based?
-the game was all PvE or all PvP (think in terms of it being opposite of whichever one you prefer)?
-the only way guilds could get together was on guildchat or to choose a meeting place because there were no server cities?
-people could loot or buy from game vendors the same stuff you crafted?
-you could only communicate with people from your faction?
-the game was a FPS or some genre other than RPG?
-the UI was awkward, the destination of your mission was unclear, and there was not an easy way to make a waypoint?
-the community was awful, people were not helpful, and people wanted very little to do with lower level players?
-everything was leveled (fostering high-level players not wanting to play with low level players) making things deadly if it was too high above your level and worthless for xp if it was below your level?
Comments
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience"
CS Lewis
We know what sort of greedy bastards we are working with, the whole reason for the CUNGE wasn't to improve gameplay but to chase after a new, larger WoW subscriber base that they didn't have.
Only after that didn't materialize did they even start giving lip service to caring about what we want.
SWG will be shut down once it gets close to being cash negative operationally, and probably just before.
Odds are that they allready are pretty close to the RED income line allready.
Remember, SOE pays LEC to have this game...They pay 10 million a year for the name(saw it in a magazine that listed what some companies paid to have the Star Wars name on their product.). Also, some of the subscription fee goes straight to LEC's pocket.
This is unlinked and old, but I seem to remember that before launch, on the beta forums, someone higher up in the dev chain said something about needing 100k subscribers just to stay afloat with no income and no red numbers.
Ofcourse, they have removed most of the dev team since then, moved servers around so each server doesnt have as much resources as before, thus needing less servers overall. (In the old days, the cantinas on 1 planet was on 1 machine, so to speak. Today, all cantinas on all planets are on 1 machine.
I would guess, 50-70k subscribers is needed now, to stay above the red line.
And yes, guesswork, as I've got no links, no letters, no mails to prove any of this, just my ol' memory that picked up stuff here and there in the 5 years of following SWG.
But still, these projections are hard. Does the number include amortization of the hardware? Changes in bandwidth, does it include SWG only costs or the integration with Station pass.
During 3 year period the hardware has quadrupled in power. Integrating everything with other systems they have could have cut costs drastically. The license fee for oracle DB is easily a mil or several mil per year (they changed DB a while back to a different DB).
The ironic part is, the actual work always costs the least. Licenses take big bites out of income.
And with all the transition to a mature game as processes get optimized, I wouldn't be surprise if the number were now as low as 20k-40k. These is all based on accounts of other games that entered this phase, who have all reported that upkeep of such games is next to 0.
Let me put it this way...I wouldn't be surprised if SOE announced tomorrow that the game was shutting down, but I also am not holding my breath for the game to shut down because I wouldn't be surprised if the game was around for a few more years. Does anyone know what the contract is between LA and SOE as far as how many years SOE has the rights to Star Wars license? The one thing that would certainly shut this game down is if LA refused to renew. The one thing that would keep this game going no matter what is if the penalty to SOE for breaking contract is larger than the cost of keeping it going.
By the way, whipped out the little calculator on the computer. It takes a little less than 60k subs paying $15 a month for a year to cover $10 mil. I don't know how station passes work as far as the allocation of the fee amongst SOE games. Also, there is the amount of people who purchase the software for the game even if they do not subscribe to it. Somehow the last must play a very important roll in the funding or SOE would be doing everything it could to keep vets around rather than putting out continual versions of the same package + some "special item" while chasing away more vets than they are bringing in and keeping new players.
It's inevitable, it's going to happen, and soon. Just a matter of when.
people were starting to be only Jedi or BH and after he came to me by saying it was now no more of SWG but KOTOR online. SO i could say that this game was great cause u could be a officer and do missions and find other people with higher rank than u in the army or things like that , and Jedi were like divinity cause they were only a few to be and they were so powerful. But the problem i think is that SOE and lucasart decide that everyone could be jedi or BH without exception ! anyway i will say that i will not play SWG cause it reign is now finish i think and like the host said there will only remainning fans . have a good day
I was just about to address this. They need almost 60k subs just to pay the license fee. More to cover salaries, bandwidth, Smed's hookers, phone lines and bandwidth in India for CS... er... GMs.
That kinda puts them not very far from the red. Yet everything they do continues to drive away subs. It's like they're TRYING to go in the red. Hell, just the subs that would be gained from a few classic servers would cover the license fee.
SWG Tempest: Cardo Dycen RIP
Eve: Cardoh Dycen
I support random drug testing for all SOE employees