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Lessons from the Cart Crash of 1984: Why P2P may need to be run into the ground.
Beatnik59
Member UncommonPosts: 2,413
As sad as this may sound, I'm starting to get the feeling that the P2P MMO industry is going to have to implode before we start to see better games. To me, its less about World of Warcraft, and more about the conventions of the industry as a whole. Like people have mentioned, the idea on everyone's mind in P2P MMO development is, "get that money made." They have this as an attitude, because MMOs seem like California during the gold rush: no rules, relatively low startup costs, and the promise of immense quarterly earnings. I liken it to the years before 1984, when we had the big crash in the Atari cart wars, where the goal was not to create games, but to create fast bucks.
Back in the early days, before a lot of you were even born, people couldn't get enough Atari 2600 games. There was a demand for new carts, and relatively little consumer knowledge of what was out there. For awhile, you could sell any sort of trash you wanted, as long as you had a fancy title, good box art, and a persuasive pitch. I mean, all you really had to do was get the customer at the sales counter, which meant that most of the effort was in the packaging, and not the product. I mean, if the market allows you to make money selling bad games, then there is no reason to make good games. Word of mouth may sink your cart, but by the time word of mouth gets around, you've already sold 50,000 carts, and made back what you spent creating the cart. Then all you have to do is churn out some new fancy art, spend a weekend programming, cannabalize all the carts from the last game that no distributor will buy, stick a new label on it, and send it out as a new crappy title that will sell maybe 45,000.
Today, like those old days, there is a "wild west" atmosphere in P2P MMOs. In fact, its worse than the old cart days. Not only is there no real incentive to produce a finished product, but MMO producers have convinced themselves that having a finished product is not necessary to make money, and that the consumer shouldn't expect a finished product. By the time the consumer realizes how bad the game really is, the producers already made enough in sub fees to let the customer go. What becomes more important is not to sell the game to the ones who already purchased it, but to sell the game to those that have not. Which means that the real money maker is not the game so much as the hype you can generate on sites like this one, or in the magazines, or on your website.
Now a lot has been said about startup costs being too high. I'd say this were true, if you had to distribute at Best Buy. You have to actually churn out disks, printing, and work within a distribution chain before you even make dime one. These days though, you have digital distribution. You don't have to pay anymore for printing costs, and you don't need a distributor to get it into the consumer's hands, all of which can be significant barriers to entry. However, we have to understand that while digital distribution emancipates the small developer, those same barriers that prevent small developers from entering the market also prevent scams, bad games, and hucksters from duping the marketplace.
Digital distribution and the birth of the unpackaged MMO means that even if you have a lousy game, you can still make a killing, as long as you dress it up real nice. I see the cases of Mourning, Dark and Light, and Horizons as the rule, rather than the exception. After all, if you can sell games, and maintain subscribers on the premise that it is acceptable to buy bad games, and that live teams will make them better, then there is no real reason for live teams to ever make them better. By the time consumers are fed up, you'll have made money for little more than server operation costs, and if your marketing is working, you'll have more replacements for whatever churn you generate.
In P2P, there is a potential to make astonishing amounts of money. If you sell a software product, then once the product is sold, that consumer is satisfied, and no more revenue will be forthcoming. Its hard for developers to get lines of credit, or to plan their growth when they sell products, because the first question from the banker will be, "you made a lot of money last quarter, but there is no reason your short term sales will continue."
But MMOs are not consumer products, or commodities like other games. They are software services that have the potential to keep on generating revenue from a consumer long after they are "sold." You can walk into a bank, and answer your short term revenue projections easily when you sell a software service, as you can say, "we have x amount of subscribers, y degree of churn, a growth of z subscribers, and can estimate our income to be ___________." While it may not necessarily pan out that way in truth, it looks persuasive enough, because P2P, and even F2P MMOs are the, "games that keep on giving."
Now I assume that none of us here are "squeamish," about P2P MMOs. However, take for a moment to consider how very problematic MMOs really are from a consumer's perspective, and you might realize how very problematic this genre can be.
1) Consumers of MMOs are expected to pay money now for something that will become worthless at a time not of the consumer's choosing.
It would be as if you bought a hamburger on the condition that you may or may not be able to finish it. That at any time, the cook could take away your hamburger whether you only had one bite, or finished the whole thing, based on factors wholly outside your control. You may want to play the software you purchased, but if the provider no longer offers the service, your original purchase is now worthless, unlike every other game that is unconnected to service availablity. You may not want to play Diablo II again, but if on any small chance you wanted to do so, you still have the disks to re-install and play it at a time of your choosing. Even if you wanted to play the Asheron's Call 2 you own, you cannot, because the Asheron's Call 2 service is discontinued at a time of their choosing, and not your own.
2) Consumers of MMOs are expected to pay a long term fee for a long term experience that has the promise of fun, but no guarantee it will be fun.
It is as if you bought a seven course meal, but only know of the first course. You have no idea if you'll be full, or if you'll be sick, or if you'll want more after the second course, the third course, etc. You have no facts to go on, and no frame of reference, other than some mystical value of hope or faith that it will be good, but no actual guarantee that it will be good. Hardcoded games can be rented, played at the store, or borrowed. There is a lot more a consumer can do to understand what they are buying, because the item is a known quantity, unlike MMOs, which change too much for consumers to ever get a handle on them.
3) Consumers of MMOs pay for a specific experience, but the providers reserve the right to give them something wholly different than what the consumer originally paid for.
This is the old SWG "New Game Enhancement" syndrome. You pay for a year in advance because you like the game, but the game changes into something you do not find acceptable, but the MMO provider does. This is almost the exact opposite of #1. The service continues, but it is no longer a service that is acceptable to the consumer, because it has changed into something the consumer would have never purchased, if they only knew. You don't have that problem with hardcoded games, which are much less expensive.
MMO providers have not seriously tackled these three, because they never really had to before. Maybe they weren't really all that serious, or they just believed that a greater acceptence by the consumer of the genre's shortcomings would come in time. However, when you see data like the poll made some time ago at Perpetual Entertainment's Star Trek Online site which asked consumers to cite the main reason they haven't tried an MMO previously, and 55% of them say that its "too expensive," it should not come as a suprise, like it did to Perperual. MMOs are not just expensive, the odds that you'll catch a bad MMO, or a scam, or pay too much for too little are high, and with the way this genre is working today, its only going to get worse.
To tell you the truth though, we might almost need to run this industry into the ground in order to change the way this industry works.
__________________________
"Its sad when people use religion to feel superior, its even worse to see people using a video game to do it."
--Arcken
"...when it comes to pimping EVE I have little restraints."
--Hellmar, CEO of CCP.
"It's like they took a gun, put it to their nugget sack and pulled the trigger over and over again, each time telling us how great it was that they were shooting themselves in the balls."
--Exar_Kun on SWG's NGE
Comments
You haven't really said what the alternative is.
I think everyone accepts that MMORPGs are expensive to make, Vanguard cost $30m and look how it turned out. Now companies are going to have to make that cash back some how....
Either you have P2P, with a monthly sub, or a huge inital cost (anyone willing to pay $200 for a game unless they are sure they're going to play it for 2yrs?), or some kind of item purchase Asian system....
Impressive post. However, you fail to mention the increase of information streams with the growing possibilities of the internet and its environment. People can still be fooled into buying things, but in this case, it's your own fault when you do. Research something before you buy it, if you don't, you're just being lazy.
Even so, the point you make about MMO's is right. I've searched these forums for an acceptable MMO last week, something to take my mind off WoW, but all I end up seeing , is "Dead MMO" titles. Even MMO's I've heard people being quite positive about in the past seem to be struck by their developers and their actions.
That's also one of the reasons why my hope is focussed on WAR. They have clear boundries ( for example: end-game will be most definately mainly PvP focussed, if you don't like it, not the game for you, this sends clear informarion to the customer ) and within those boundries, their objective, to me, seems to be only one thing. Make sure that the gamer is having FUN.
I am afraid that the future of MMOs will be free to play, but have advertisements imbeded in them. Do I really care if that breast plate has a nike swoosh, or if that mana potion has a coke logo? While having commercials in game would make sense for a present or future day MMO, it doesn't for fantasy types. MMOs cost too much money for the company not to be compensated.
1) Grind fest centric
2) Males usually rendered too effeminately, I don't see people complain about the females
3) content
What Korean games do have that is usually lacking from US titles can be boiled down to PVP content. Most if not all Korean titles have PvP as a major part of the game and usually the PVP mechanics are done well. Where they usually drop the ball is the above mentioned issues.
Now lets take a game like WoW for example. If given the current content, remove the Pay to Play and start an item Mall service for specific items like unique mounts or armor sets, how much more popular and accessible do you think it'll become?
Do you think they'd make any money in this case if players are given options to buy "special" potions or items that will last say ..a month at a relatively cheap price per item, say US$1 to US$4?
Add in servers where the Alliance vs Horde conflict is emphasised and players can take over towns and control them ala Lineage II how much more immersive will that be? Would you play such a game? Would making the game world change persistently depending on player's actions be well received?
I honestly do think that it would be even more accessible to more players, so obviously you'd get more "bad players" but if the company's aim is to make money from their game, do you think they'd have enough players to hit critical mass if a game like WoW i is made Free to get, free to play and income is based on item mall purchase?
The bottom line, do you think they'll make a profit?.
Would even the US MMO gaming industry even consider such a model?
I know Dungeon runners is the first, it isn't the best of games...but its better then some other junk I have played.
But would other developers follow suit and make better games that would be free to get, free to play?
Item malls are even worse. Most buddies I know won't even touch a Asian based game just because of IP4RLC (Intellectual Property For Real Life Cash) based gaming. It is not only worse than the US style of MMO P2P monthly subs, but also a very bad way to treat an online community.
Advertisements will be more acceptable way of handling it as the US is a capitialist country, unlike the socialist and/or communist ways of the Eastern world.
I agree with the OP on this and not only will the P2P have a hard crash by 2010, but it will be game concepts that are similar to NwN/NwN2 and some other titles on the way out that will accelerate the crash and burn of the P2P MMOG's in general.
The only thing that will save the MMOG from a complete wipe out is in-game advertisements, which we are already seeing multiple titles heading that way. As for the Item Mall really making a hit in the US is a complete joke. Just thinking about Item mall type MMOs' make me very nauseated at the least. Sorry, but Westerners think completely different than people from the far East.
I don't know what is worse in a MMO, item malls or grind fests. Both dont' belong in MMOs at all.
Just because Dungeons Runners is getting a lot of hype over at Fileplanet and other sources on the net, doesn't mean it will survive long after its promotion. Most people are playing it right now because of the LARGE banner advertisements at FP and the rumors of it being Diablo like. However as I have seen so far, most people walk away from it once the 14 day trial is up or quit even before that once they findout that you have to pay 5 bucks a month to get uniique and mythic items in the game. Most feel it isn't even worth it.
BTW, DR isn't even an Item Mall game so I don't know why you add it to your Item Mall support list. DR is free to play, but if you want the better stuff you just have to pay 5 bucks a month. there is no IP4RLC like most other Asian based games have. So I don't see why you even mention it.
However, the concept of what DR is doing as with regards to F2P or become a member to get uber gear may be a way for the MMOG developers to earn trust back from the community for all the crap they have been unloading on us during the more recent years. Especially for the initial cost to be waivered as we all have become more sceptible before buying.
However, due to the high costs of developing a MMO. I totally doubt you will see them all give us the initial software for free. As usual, they will just give us free trials to prove to us their product is worth the costs. Just as it usually happens in our country, it will just become more imparitive for free trials with future MMOs to gather its player base. Thanks to gaming sites like Fileplanet, Gamespot, Filefront and others.
Either the MMO developers will strategically plan their future games better or we will see smaller community based games (like I mentioned above) be the driving force that cripples, if not destroys the MMO scene altogether.
As for me, I am already gone back to playing NwN/NwN2 and other smaller MP based RPGs since LOTRO, VG, WOW, EQ2 and even the future MMOs aren't even worth considering. In my book, WAR and AoC are just being hyped by the fanboys just as they did with VG, LOTRO, DnL, and all the other crap that plagues the net. You all will see, WAR and AoC will be just another title.
Well, that obviously took some effort to write. You make a couple good points Beatnik, but your arguments have so many holes, random assumptions and flawed conclusions, it makes hardly sense.
The industry does not need to implode before we see it swing over to the Korean 'free' grindfest template. You ignore the fact that one of the most successful MMOs on the market today requires a monthly fee. Make a good game, and people will pay to play it. Make garbage, and people will avoid it. Simple, eh?
Back in the day, as you put it, good games made big money. Don't try to convince people that every game was an Atari 2600 clone. You played Doom? Wizardry i? Ultima I? You graduated into Warcraft I? Civ I? Sure, some companies knocked off cheap 'B' games by the dozen, but so what? That didn't stop the industry from making the AAA games too, which generated a hell of a lot more money than all the 'B' games.
Now you're jumping to current generation MMOs, and 'supposed' high startup costs. Do you know how long it takes to create an AAA-grade MMO these days? Years. 4-5 years seems to be the norm now, not the exception. Betas run 6-12 months, sometimes longer. The high startup cost has nothing to do with distribution. It's wages -- whether it's 5 devs/artists/etc or 500 -- and hardware, office space, and advertising.
It takes $millions$ to generate a MMO. Is it any wonder they'd like to recoup those $millions? You want them to spend $millions, and then donate it to gamers as a monumental goodwill gesture?
Ok, so now your numbered points.
1. Yes. Consumers are expected to pay a 30-day fee, normally in the $10-15 range, for a product that might be cancelled during that 30-day span. Whoop-de-freakin-doo. Two things on that. First, unless you are completely oblivious, you KNOW a soon-to-be-cancelled-game is in jeopardy BEFORE you plunk down your monthly fee. So you may be out a portion of $15, but you knew the risk and took it.
The writing is on the wall for several MMOs, and still they limp along month affter month as their subsciption base dwindles down to almost nothing. Did you play Shadowbane? 30k to start, and they were down to 10k within 6 months. Would anyone have been surprised if they had pulled the plug back in 2004?
If you want to drop $15 down on a game that is obviously teetering on the edge, that's your choice. Besides, most games on the way out will tell you a couple weeks, maybe even a month ahead of when they will pull the plug.
2.Consumers are expected to pay a 30-day fee for the promise of fun. Is 30 days really that long? Are you really suggesting they shouldn't make any changes to the game after you've dropped your $15? If the game is altered next month, here's a CLUE. Do not pay for the NEXT month?
3. You learned your lesson, didn't you? Tried to save a couple bucks and got burned? DO NOT PAY FOR 1 YEAR.
We don't need to run this industry into the ground. We need people to spend their 50c a day on games they enjoy, and stop paying for the garbage. If the only games that make money are GOOD games, then devs will make good games.
I didn't say that DR was an item mall game. I said it was free to get, free to play.
They didn't choose to put in an item mall, instead they have a small monthly subscription and I think that's in consideration for US costumers who like you would probably be more comfortable with paying a monthly fee instead of buying outright IP items to use in the game.
But you still missed the whole point of what I was saying.
The problem with the industry is
1) Unlike single player games where we know exactly what we are getting, MMOs aren't so easily defined and customers at this point pay to try a game that they don't even know is in a playable state. (Vanguard)
2) MMO games evolves over time so the game that you are playing now might very well be VERY different 6 months, 12 months, 18 months from now. This state of change can put people off after investing time *and* money in the game. More so if the game is broken from the start, and fixes are promised by in reality aren't possible for months if they even get fixed. Heavy Subscription based models just drives the message home that you while are paying for something you might not be paying for what you want.
3) Free to play , Free to get games is not a model that the US MMO industry should ignore.
More then anything when games become free to get / free to play it has to be able to at least stand on their own merit . I mean if its really bad, people would stop playing. If its any good, you'd have that many eyeballs in your game that you can then :
1) sell add info to as you suggested
2) item mall stuff if that is their route
3) game merchandising
4) Other means of income that I'll leave people better at marketing at
The thing is, if a game is free to get, free to play, its really a win win situation, if they come up with something good, people will want to play it. Because its free, accessibility is so much higher which means more people would be willing to try and if you have the numbers, companies would be more then likely to want to advertise in the game. I'd be more then willing to bet that Addidas or Nike would kill to be able to put their logo on one of the higher end WoW boots.
But coming back to that, Adds might be too intrusive. I for one would not want my Armor to have a huge "?GUESS?" logo on it, and because of that, I actually prefer the item mall route. Adds might work if done right, but it really depends on how well such Adds are received. Between the two I personally feel that item mall is the less intrusive of the two.
Or someone might actually come out with a third option.
P2P isn't going away if anything it will become stronger especially in America. Look at the services provided to americans. You have phone service which is a flat monthly rate and then you can talk for as many minutes as you want and have free long distance. You have blockbuster and netflix offering free movies at a low monthly rate. We pay per month for our internent and in most cases can use it as much as we want, same thing with cable television, etc. That is our payment method of choice in America. The reason f2p/item mall shops work in the east is that is the system they are used to. They have to pay per amount that they play at the internet cafes, they don't have unlimited internet for a low price. So of course they are used to paying only for what they use. In america we are used to paying flat rates for a service whether we use it for 1 minute or 2000 hours we want the ability to pay the same amount.
***Edit*** I can see them adding advertisements to the games, but I don't see that lowering the prices honestly of the monthly fee. I just see that as an added income for the game company. The ads will either be added directly to the game through product placement, billboard/poster style ads, or through a game launcher that each player will see before getting into the game.
Currently playing:
LOTRO & WoW (not much WoW though because Mines of Moria rocks!!!!)
Looking Foward too:
Bioware games (Dragon Age & Star Wars The Old Republic)
I am afraid I must say hell no to the item mall route. IMO this is the exact opposite direction that the industry needs to go in. What the item mall represents is "more real money thrown at game" = "better equipment/characters/odds for in-game characters". This throws off any semblance of balance for people not wanting to spend more of their cash on a game and in essence has the same effect as gold-selling. The industry should stick to (and move towards even more in certain cases) "better player skill" = "better in-game stuff". Otherwise in many peoples' eyes the game devolves from rewarding better skilled players to rewarding players with more real world cash.
As far as P2P game distribution goes...I think its positives outweigh the negatives.
Positive - Allows faster distribution of games, Allows companies with less startup capital to spend more of their money on developing the game as opposed to distributing it, Allows more people the opportunity to buy a game that might be unavailable in their area in disk form, Friendly to the environment
(sorry had to throw that one in lol).
Negative - Makes impulse buying easier (as opposed to someone actually researching a game first), Less of a barrier to entry for companies just looking to make a quick buck with a flashy Ad campaign (although with the stagnant industry we are facing at present this could be argued as an already occurring problem), I DONT GET MY COOL FOLDOUT MAP THAT COMES WITH THE BOX VERSION AND IS ALREADY OBSOLETE!
IMO this industry has become flooded with different versions of the same 2 or 3 games with different fluff (there are exceptions but even they dont usually make more that 1or 2 real changes to the industries top money makers). Before we see real innovation on the part of developers a few of these "new" games are going to have to go bust from the start and send a wake up call to the industry to make some REAL improvements or else we won't buy their crap. The only problem with this is that so far we, as a gaming community at large, are still more than willing to spend 50-60 bucks on our hopes (delusions might be a better word) that the "new" game will be "the one" that finally gives us what we have been asking for. WE are the biggest hurdle to game companies actually making better games.
The problem with the genre now is that because of past efforts, a company can put out an unfinished product and charge you out the wazzo for it on the basis that " This is how games in this genre are published". Frankly, its a load of bull. We get punished because companies can't meet their deadlines. Now I'm not talking like, "Well we have 2 dungeons to implement yet for higher levels", but more of the Vanguard," We haven't even finished the normal classes and content passed lvl 30 let alone the 2 other classes that were announced orignally for release but now MIGHT make it in one at time for the next two expansions" crap.
And as far as F2P games, I personally like that direction. But I like that direction when the Item Mall items are just flavor items like new costumes or pets. Not items that create a monumental gap between Shoppers and non shoppers. Dungeon Runners is a god example, a non-sub player is at a serious disadvantage compared to one that is paying the $5 fee for Mythic and other weapons because they can't even be equipped . Where in Rappelz, there is an item store, but most if not all items are tradeable to not Shoppers and their money is still worth enough in game to be able to be used to by a Cash Shop item if you have enough Rupees. The items they sell on the shop do not give those players a giant edge over others who do not, and the items that are purchased are still obtainable by players who dont purchase from the Item Mall.
I don't think there is anything that we the playerbase can do about unfinished games and content other than not purchasing said games, and not forking over money on monthly fee's to play them. And I think we are more than likely going to see more Station Pass type deals for a mulitude of games than we ever have a chance of seeing these games go F2P, period. WoW has just made Blizzard to damn much money to ever remove that carrot on the stick from other western developers.
If you are that concerned over the state of the genre, your best bet is to move on to another. While I feel also that we deserve finished games and content, the other 99% of the playerbase doesn't seem to really care anymore, they will gobble anything up. Look at Vanguard, and more often than not Vanguard got BLASTED from our playerbase in the beta.
Http://almostheroesgaming.blogspot.com - Your favorite Blog for Free 2 Play MMO's .... Coming Soon!
Http://almostheroesgaming.blogspot.com - Your favorite Blog for Free 2 Play MMO's .... Coming Soon!
Http://almostheroesgaming.blogspot.com - Your favorite Blog for Free 2 Play MMO's .... Coming Soon!
Granted some sort of standard needs to be set for product releases Vanguard proved that, but then again they did spend over 30 million dollars it was either ship it and try and make back the money we're losing or go under.
I really have to laugh at the common consumer that lacks any real knowledge of businesses. Even the F2P games make money bud and their software and service are a hundred times worse but you don't see people bitching do you? Because they're under the illiusion its soley a free game when its not, they're all item malls! You still have to pay you just end up paying more.
I'll continue to happily support P2P games and if the game sucks i hit cancel. Or if the reviews suck I won't bother buying the software.
Please Refer to Doom Cat with all conspiracies & evil corporation complaints. He'll give you the simple explination of..WE"RE ALL DOOMED!
What they did do was start making better games.
So the simple conclution is not that P2P will die but P2P games will get better . because people are not going to buy crappy P2P games like LotRO anymore because they have been further exposed to good and bad games and will be able to identify qualities of crappy games earlier/faster.
I mean most mmo players now have played one game WOW, and many of them seekign anew game played LotRO, a game very similar to wow but with less pvp content and less end game raids. These people have no clue what a good mmo really is they played what 1 maybe two mmos... give them time.
Still there are small groups of people who like crappy games look at all of the asian games in the mmo list, all but MAYBE Aion are junk (L2 is ok). Still i see posts hyping them all the time like this game is basicly a dumb as every other asian mmo, however, OMG its so cool.
That and view the number of 2nd and 3rd rate mmos being made .. like if we "build them they will come" And its true in part. Still a lot of these are F2P why , because people are not going to pay to play that crap.
"Society in every state is a blessing, but government even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one ..." - Thomas Paine
I have no problem with an item mall that does not give unbalancing bonuses to people who want to pay more. I absolutely loathe the idea once they cross that line though.
As far as the P2P comment goes I was using the wrong acronym
, sorry. I meant the direct download distribution method the OP referenced.
Your last paragraph is very untrue. I would wager that most people who use Item Mall services actually pay MORE per month for in game items than a normal P2P price plan. And again though, opinions are like assholes, everyone has em, and a lot of people actually like the asian type MMO's. I know a lot of people think tat L2's PvP system is one of the best ever, and hell Aion isn't even near beta yet.
You have to remember, MMO's are just another genre in the game industry. They get their crap just like budget titles on consoles or the PC.
Http://almostheroesgaming.blogspot.com - Your favorite Blog for Free 2 Play MMO's .... Coming Soon!
A lot of asians like Asian mmos (ie people in or around about asia).
Aion's not in beta tho i did state it MAYBE was a asian mmo that would not suck just for that reason.
And L2 was the best made asain mmo to date.
"They get their crap just like budget titles on consoles or the PC." - No they are different from servers to patches to x-packs and even development time, budget even, they are different.
Also they involve a large success/failure judgment by stock holders co. owners, and the game players that non mmos don't share as much.
"Society in every state is a blessing, but government even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one ..." - Thomas Paine
In short, you wouldn't see much change from the current market. That's how things are currently run, sans the occasional blockbuster company.
See, refusing to buy is not a big enough factor on the market. People lose money, sure, but it doesn't affect the market in such drastic fashion. There's still money flowing in from people who are buying. In order to affect the market, more people need to put more money into it and make specific genres more appealing.
More purchases = more willing investors = more leverage for the game companies (more lenient deadlines, more resources) = more, better quality games.
If more "intelligent" games were bought by more people, then there'd be more "intelligent" games being produced. Instead, the North American market is more focused on aesthetics than other elements (this is true of many industries, and is considered a cultural phenomena).
That's why MMOs are picking up steam in the North American market, post-WoW. Around here, MMOs used to be a niche. With one game they became somewhat mainstream in North American culture. It's actually a good thing that many companies want to emulate WoW's success (perhaps not the game design, though).
As consumers we'll be reaping the benefits within a year -- Age of Conan, Warhammer, etc.
-- xpaladin
[MMOz]
AC1/2, AO, DAoC, EQ1/2, SoR, SWG, UO, WAR, WoW
I agree with the OP that there are troubles with the MMO Market is going. A lot of titles really aren't ready to be released, but due to time constraints, etc we see them anyway. I would like to see something change, but I'm not sure what would help the situation. You can always say that others should "speak with their wallets" but let's be realistic; Being the first anything is a huge draw to alot of people. So if a development company puts a new game out that had even a mediocre amount of marketing exposure, they are sure to draw in the over-achievers. Along with those people, the hardcore and beta-fan type players will also buy in. But even worse is when all three of those groups start posting on a site like this saying the game in question is good for xxx reason. And then the Casual, HC-Light, Part-Time, and Life-long Guilders start buying in. At that point, we, the MMO Players have reinforced the understanding that we're ok with a half-finished game.
On the flip side, the purpose of the entire market is to provide an excape from reality (ok, the purpose for us the players...). So, is 65 bucks worth 30 days of fun? Look at any amusement park (those overpriced ones, not the state fair's). What do those cost to get into now? $30 - $60? And that's usually only for a single day. And sometimes, doesn't include the water park or what have you. While the upfront cost is a possible detriment to some people who are more budget minded, is it really that big of an impact? Look at what you spend on any given weekend, at a bar, or movie, or professional sport viewing. It's tough, for me at least, to find a way to say the 65 bucks wasn't well spent.
Finally, using shadowbane as an example is pretty good. When it first started a lot of people were playing. Then with buggy code, bad connections, frequent down-times, sub-par graphics, etc a good portion of the player base left. However, the game continued on for a few years. And now it's offered as F2P and still has the truly devoted fan base. It's a great game if you like political machinations, all out pvp, etc. The graphcs still aren't great, but the community is fairly solid. I guess my point is, Shadowbane is an excellent example of how most games live their lives. High Subscription, Low Subscription, Return Players, Falling Fan-base, and then either Death (Think: Earth and Beyond) or a F2P or Community Run server. There are some exceptions but I'd say this is the norm for the largest group of games.
In closing: I believe that unless some earth shattering change occurs (think: a current legal struggle involving the MMO community) we'll be stuck in the Alpha to Closed Beta to Open Beta to P2P Beta gaming cycle. Personally, I enjoy gaming too much to miss out of the different worlds to explore, and digital players to kill.
Mado
This made me laugh! Reminds me of a special running at one of the local game stores when the WoW expansion was selling out; they were offering a free copy of the WoW Strategy Guide with your purchase. For those of you who don't know, the guide still had spells listed for certain classes that had been removed before beta ended. The guide had already been obsolete for over 2 full years.
I simply disagree with your points 1,2, and 3.
You pay 50 bucks for a boxed MMORPG. So what if you can't play it later if the company goes broke? Honestly, it's not a major concern for most players. That 50 bucks comes with one month free. If it's a decent MMORPG, you get 50 bucks worth of gaming that first month, if you compare the game to any comparable priced single player.
The next month only costs $14.95, and you get ANOTHER month of gameplay. How many single player games can you buy for $14.95 that will give you a good month of gameplay? Probably none. So your analysis of the value is just way off.
Games have become disposable. YOu play them, you discard them. You got your value in the entertainment at the time, just like a movie. You can't go back with your old movie ticket and watch the movie again either. yet people still go to the movies instead of buying DVDs or rent them. Why ? Because there's not that much value in repeated viewing, just like theres not that much value in re-playing an old game. Most prefer to move on to the next new game.
The other point is I hate item malls, and will never play a game with an item mall. You want my 15 bucks a month? No problem, design a good game and it's all yours. It's a bargain IMO. You want to charge me a nickel here, a dime there, and then a dollar, or $3.50, over and over again? That's a pain in my ass, and I'm not playing or paying.
MMORPGs are becoming just like movies. You get a big budget, do the project, and it might be a blockbuster like WoW that makes the company rich, or a flop like Vanguard and you're lucky to get your money back, or you just lose the investment. That's what you're gonna see, over and over, just like movies.
My concern here is for the viability of this industry at a time when I see massive discontent about massive multiplayer in general. I think that we here are not the ones who have a problem with P2P, because we all P2P right now. Suffice it to say though that most players of computer entertainment don't play MMOs, and nobody has really considered why they aren't.
Not only that, but I'm not so sure anymore that this industry is going to grow like it has in the last few years. If you look at MMOGdata, subs are declining after a big period of growth due to WoW. Whether or not it will start to grow again remains to be seen, but I don't think the sort of scams, buggy launches, and the like really encourage growth, especially among those 55% of people in Perpetual's poll who say subscription based MMOs are too expensive.
We could argue back and forth all day about whether or not it's the buyer's fault when the get duped by a scam. I think it's safe to say though that scams don't encourage people to bother with MMOs. Same thing for cancellations, or wholesale redesigns. Will it cause consumers to be cautious when this genre's conventions bite them in the rear? Sure they will...and many of them might pass by the MMO section altogether because of it.
This industry has been blessed with the good fortune of building on a strong foundation in terms of quality control. If Origin and Verant back then behaved like Farlan, EI Interactive, and SOE behave now, do you really believe that people would give P2P MMO gaming a chance? It wouldn't even get off the ground, because the consumer confidence would simply not be there.
After all, single player games and non-online games can have a huge replayability factor. Just look at a game like Sim City IV, or the Total War series. Hell, even Diablo II or Starcraft can give you months of fun, for just the price of a box. The MMO folks need new consumers far more than the consumers need MMOs, and when the MMO consumers are plentiful, that's when you get growth in new and specialized directions.
But let's get real here people. MMOs have to compete with MySpace, phones, and single player games with some online capability. What is the industry going to do to encourage consumers to play their products when there are so many others out there that are entertaining without all of the problems I describe in #1-#3?
Because you can't tell me MMOs are a value, when you pay both a box and a sub fee for software that will become worthless at the whim of an accountant's pen. You can't tell me MMOs offer replayability, when they are resistant to mods, and become defunct when the service closes down. How replayable is Asheron's Call II today, as opposed to Starcraft? You can't tell me MMOs are premium games, when they can change overnight into something substandard just because the devs feel like it.
In fact, there are so many problems with MMOs from a consumer's perspective, that it suprises me that the genre grew at all. But I'll give you a hint as to why it grew:
UO, Everquest, and WoW: all games that made it easy to make the decision to subscribe to an online game. They assured the consumer that they weren't going to pack up their tents, and take the money and run at the first sign of a subscription downturn. They were more or less restrained in terms of developer prerogatives to change the game on the fly. They made it easy for the MMO novice to have fun online without TS/Vent, a clan of ubergamers, an RSS feed to find out how the game changes weekly, or a huge bankroll.
But even if you take issue with my call for the industry to clean up it's act, I hope you acknowledge that scams, preorders, inadequately tested launches, and the hype machines aren't making this genre stronger. That's essentially what I'm trying say.
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"Its sad when people use religion to feel superior, its even worse to see people using a video game to do it."
--Arcken
"...when it comes to pimping EVE I have little restraints."
--Hellmar, CEO of CCP.
"It's like they took a gun, put it to their nugget sack and pulled the trigger over and over again, each time telling us how great it was that they were shooting themselves in the balls."
--Exar_Kun on SWG's NGE