No sir, a "heavy gamer" doesn't know anyone who is still playing WoW does not mean ANYTHING when dealing with a subscribtion base of 8,5 million subscriber. When Blizzard is starting to shut down a massive amount of servers, then its safe to assume its losing subscribers.
In fact, I'm willing to bet my house, my car and my entire bank account that WoW will have well over 500k subs in NA and Europe by the end of the year.
8.5 millions ACCOUNTS created. Not the same. WoW has less players then 3 months ago, not more. The "Heavy gamer" knows hundred of gamers...the fact not 1 is playing WoW atm...this is something...not scientific granted, but a clear sign. See, how many boxes they sold? If they have 8 millions subs, they must have sold 20 millions boxes...but no, they don't advertise that, why wouldn't they? Because they didn't sold that many! The number you see, still include my account, which I buy on release day and stop playing the next day...and I never pay 1 monthly fee.
Believe their propaganda all you want...
Starcraft MMO wouldn't break 1 million copies sold...I am pretty sure of that. Players are piss at how WoW ends...and players don't forgive as lightly as you want to believe they do. Pissing someone while entertaining them is an extremely poor strategy.
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
No sir, a "heavy gamer" doesn't know anyone who is still playing WoW does not mean ANYTHING when dealing with a subscribtion base of 8,5 million subscriber. When Blizzard is starting to shut down a massive amount of servers, then its safe to assume its losing subscribers.
In fact, I'm willing to bet my house, my car and my entire bank account that WoW will have well over 500k subs in NA and Europe by the end of the year.
8.5 millions ACCOUNTS created. Not the same. WoW has less players then 3 months ago, not more. The "Heavy gamer" knows hundred of gamers...the fact not 1 is playing WoW atm...this is something...not scientific granted, but a clear sign. See, how many boxes they sold? If they have 8 millions subs, they must have sold 20 millions boxes...but no, they don't advertise that, why wouldn't they? Because they didn't sold that many! The number you see, still include my account, which I buy on release day and stop playing the next day...and I never pay 1 monthly fee.
Believe their propaganda all you want...
Starcraft MMO wouldn't break 1 million copies sold...I am pretty sure of that. Players are piss at how WoW ends...and players don't forgive as lightly as you want to believe they do. Pissing someone while entertaining them is an extremely poor strategy.
And this is exactly why doing some research is so dead important.
This is where Blizzard announced 8.5 subscribers. read this.
"World of Warcraft®'s Subscriber Definition
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees' territories are defined along the same rules."
that subscriber Definition is IN EVERY press release when blizzard announces a new subscriber milestone.
The FACT is that World of Warcraft has 8,5 Million ACTIVE subscribers.
AmazingAveryAge of Conan AdvocateMemberUncommonPosts: 7,188
OP is a fool - simply put.
Must have some gypsy in him to forsee the future.
Your like the bad American adverts, saying take this pill you will lose 40lbs.
And you know why you should buy into it? Because the crap advert told you too. Then your a pretty gullable type.
The market changed alot with WoW though. While I would agree that there was a time when, if you were a pretty heavy gamer, you could make decent predictions as to the general health of a game, with WoW that changed.
The mmo market which overnight blizzard practically multiplied 10 fold, are not hardcore gamers. They are the new voice, more powerful than the previous era becasue money talks and they represent a larger market share. They play for fun and it is a past time not a chalenge in the same respect that it used to be. So unless you are one of the new era of social gamers allyour hardcore buddies could leave and blizzard would barely flinch.
I'm not a blizzard fanboi, I dont even play WoW but things changed with WoW and there is simply no going back. Besides which paid account numbers in europe and NA haven't shown a big drop considering the age of the game if you take mmochart as a reliable source, which most do.
----- The person who is certain, and who claims divine warrant for his certainty, belongs now to the infancy of our species.
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees' territories are defined along the same rules."
that subscriber Definition is IN EVERY press release when blizzard announces a new subscriber milestone. The FACT is that World of Warcraft has 8,5 Million ACTIVE subscribers.
I read that, and I say it is a LIE. Their marketing team would advertise a 10 millions boxes sold, and a 20 millions boxes sold...yet...I still am looking for such advertisement. Initially, in Canada, they use to say the amount of boxes SOLD, and it was the same as this number...now they change it...so I see them blatant LIE.
Never will see it, cause they will never sell that many boxes.
Blizzard are LYING. Technically, I am sure they are right and not LYING, in fact, maybe an account is duplicated and it is considered an active subscriber forever, even if the player cancel his subs. I dunno the detail, maybe it is not a technical LIE, but it sure is a LIE nonetheless, as it is hiding the facts and putting anything in front of you...and you believe them. EXCLUDE ALL PLAYERS, what if they duplicate an account with no player behind it, it would still be an active account, as there are no player behind. I dunno where the catch is, but it is there.
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
Gaureenteed if a universe of starcraft came out, there would be more players and subs then WoW ever had.
WoW how prophetic!!!
Yes iam. At first i thought you said i was pathetic.
Naa i just hinted that your prediction while true were pretty obvious. Also its interesting to note that Blizzard copyied of Warhammer 40k when they made starcraft too. Race wise tho my favourate was the Protoss.
"Kill one man, and you are a murderer. Kill millions of men, and you are a conqueror. Kill them all, and you are a god." -- Jean Rostand
How did this get turned into a wow thread? Damn you wow people always think anything to do with games must be about wow.
P.S. Wows popularity has nothing to do with Wow. Blizzard is the most respected developer worldwide. Anything Blizzard releases will be popular wordwide. So you wow people can stop saying it is because of wow.
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees' territories are defined along the same rules."
that subscriber Definition is IN EVERY press release when blizzard announces a new subscriber milestone. The FACT is that World of Warcraft has 8,5 Million ACTIVE subscribers.
I read that, and I say it is a LIE. Their marketing team would advertise a 10 millions boxes sold, and a 20 millions boxes sold...yet...I still am looking for such advertisement. Initially, in Canada, they use to say the amount of boxes SOLD, and it was the same as this number...now they change it...so I see them blatant LIE.
Never will see it, cause they will never sell that many boxes.
Blizzard are LYING. Technically, I am sure they are right and not LYING, in fact, maybe an account is duplicated and it is considered an active subscriber forever, even if the player cancel his subs. I dunno the detail, maybe it is not a technical LIE, but it sure is a LIE nonetheless, as it is hiding the facts and putting anything in front of you...and you believe them. EXCLUDE ALL PLAYERS, what if they duplicate an account with no player behind it, it would still be an active account, as there are no player behind. I dunno where the catch is, but it is there.
Yes Anofaly, I'm sure that such a small company as Blizzard can get away with making such a lie about their subscriber base and financial status [/sarcasm]
Don't delude yourself Ano. Gravity corp did the same thing as your accusing Blizzard of, and Gravity got sued for that. If a company like Gravity corp gets sued for that, then there is no way that Blizzard gets away with it. Just accept the facts ano, Blizzard has 8,5 milllion subscribers. Look at the huge server base, it truly is enormous. I believe it has around 400 ~ 500 servers including asian servers?
Blizzard is not hiding anything, its very clear about its subscriber definition. World of Warcraft is a worldwide success. I suggest you take off the tin foil helmet and accept the fact that World of Warcraft has 8,5 million subscribers. you're only deluding yourself.
Staying on topic, I'd like to say to the OP that there a few points that I agree with, some I do not.
On the WoW (World of Warcfraft) topic, there is no sure answer to whether or not they are losing subscribers. I can only surmise that with the irritable fanbase being rubbed the wrong way over the seemlying facemelting raid content, and over 3 year old pvp encounters, it's safe to say that TBC (The Burning Crusade) was not enough to hold onto the more dedicated players. *huff puff* Even though I personally am a fallen WoW player, 1 person with 2 accounts can't make an accurate guess at where Blizzard's sales and players will go.
I hate to come into yet another "WoW sucks" / "Wow is dieing" thread, but I will offer these small points:
TBC's expansion lacked new classes, it simply put the only factionally resticted classes for everyone.
PvP is now just as lucrative as Raiding, but not as hard. A player can go afk (Away From Keyboard) in battlegrounds and "earn" epic rewards that rival hardcore PVE content. Additionally, Blizzard mixes PVE and PVP with only one Battleground, no castles stormed, no seige, no innovative elements that were new to TBC. Arena was all that was added, which I give kudos to, even if it is a rather simple addition.
Raiding is STILL the same. Phase one, phase two, dps now, run out here, break line of sight, blah blah. While I have a small list in my head of different aspects, I'm a designer, therefore I charge. But still, the Chess Event was the only thing I saw that was off the track.
Character customization options are still 5 on 5.
No flying mounts in Azeroth, in fact, no real reason to BE in Azeroth. (once reaching 70)
The list goes on. In any case, these are small fators that may be too late to fix to save their player base. Imo, Blizzard will always have a huge player base, but in terms of the "hardcore" gamer, I think they are going to be spending their money elsewhere. All this is IMO, of course
"At that time, a friend shall lose his friend's hammer, and the young shall not know where lieth the things possessed by their fathers that their fathers put there only just the night before, about 8 o'clock . . ."
If Blizzard ever sell 1 million copies of any game, I would be surprise...heavily.
ROFLMAOLOLAHAHA.. Starcraft 2 jackassssss.. PWNED! I'll bet you they'll sell well over 1mil of it.
BTW if you come back "I ment MMO!" well to bad.. ya shoulda specified.
Anyway I agree with the OPs predictions as well as I saw this shit coming as well.
I don't play WoW anymore, but my only reason is I hate the graphics. Me being an artist. I'm picky about my graphics.
I do see AoC being "OK", but it's far from great. You don't actually "Aim" your attacks like in Obilivion. You select a location on the person to attack. It's still done D&D style with attack roles and the whole 9 yards. So the shit they spew out is all bullcrap and hype. Not to mention the damn game is instanced out the ass and I mean Guildwars hardcore instancing. Also wtf is with the nudity? I want an entertaining game.. not fking porn.. that's just another way to add a stupid "feature" to waste development time and resources.
Oh I predict LOTRO will flop and only fanbois will stick around. Played that pile of garbage for 2months. End-game is boring and dead. It's half-assed WoW with a graphic over-hall. Weaksauce, at most.
Currently i'm playing CoH/CoV and having a blast. Very fun game. Yes it's tedious, but i'm now heavily casual with my job and all so it works for me. Good graphics. Good game play. Good community. Now with the crafting system it's pretty sweet. I've been trying to see how many cool temp powers I can collect lol. I don't even have to shout to grps.. grps come to you.. that's just awesome. Beats shouting for a group in LOTRO for 3hrs to only get 2people LOL.
Anyway i'm going to try AoC and maybe Warhammer (don't like the graphics, but we'll see if they use postprocessing effects well to make it look nice).
Other then that I have no other interests. Tabula Rasa looks like freaken grabage. If I wanted to play a FPS game. I'd play a good FPS game. Same goes for an RPG game. Which is why i'm buying "Two Worlds" next month. Badass rpg game with a little multiplayer in it. I now just play MMOs to get my "Other" kicks. CoV/CoH.. never seen a good single player for that style, etc.
Now a days games have just been so sucky it ain't worth the time or more. *shrug*.. I can accomplish something in 2hrs of play on CoV/CoH.. not many games you can do that in anymore (at the end-game).
You are forgetting that AoC is also for the xBox. This is an total unknown factor, as to how well it will do.
I also have a prediction, Hellgate:London will be huge. After it comes out and word gets around it will be the next big thing. Getting MMO players, and non-MMO players.
I also believe firmly that World of Warcraft has started it's inevitable downward spiral. I recently logged into 3 different servers, and just looking at two major cities I usually frequent, the number of players seems like only about half of what it was 6-8 months ago.
..I know that it not scientific evidence to go by, and that it certainly doesn't mean that I'm absolutely correct.
But Blizzards statements may not be 100% accurate either. The fact is that big companies distort numbers to make them look like the biggest, most successful company on earth, and they will tell you 99% lie, and as long as there is 1% truth in it somewhere, they get away with it. Look at how Toyota, Ford, Chevy, and Dodge all have TV ads all the time, all stating that they are the best selling pickup trucks in America or the world. Pretty amazing how they ALL are the number one selling trucks in the world isn't it?
Let's assume for a moment that Ano and myself are correct in our observations/statements that we think WoW has started it's downward spiral. ..Do you really think that Blizzard is going to come up and announce "Oh wow, we lost 1 million active subscribers in the last 6 weeks" (for example). HELL NO! They are going to use their millions of dollars to pay some smart college grads to figure out how to say something about how they are more successful then ever and legally get away with saying so.
I don't know for sure whether WoW is losing tons of active subscribers and what those numbers actually are. But if you believe every statement that Blizzard puts out about their numbers and continued dominance, then you are a fool.
I've predicted WoW's big fall for a long time now (atleast a year and half ago I made a bold prediction that WoW would fall soon) It's gonna take a little longer then I originally predicted, but it will happen none-the-less. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.. and WoW was built for short term success and short term BIG BUCKS. It's mega fall is coming soon. It will be nothing compared what it once was in the not-too-distant future.
Watch and see.
(Oh yes, and I still hold my prediction I made last year that Asheron's Call will still be active when WoW closes down) Not that it matters in the financial outlook of both games, but still it was a pretty bold prediction, and I still believe it will happen.
The market changed alot with WoW though. While I would agree that there was a time when, if you were a pretty heavy gamer, you could make decent predictions as to the general health of a game, with WoW that changed. The mmo market which overnight blizzard practically multiplied 10 fold, are not hardcore gamers. They are the new voice, more powerful than the previous era becasue money talks and they represent a larger market share. They play for fun and it is a past time not a chalenge in the same respect that it used to be. So unless you are one of the new era of social gamers allyour hardcore buddies could leave and blizzard would barely flinch. I'm not a blizzard fanboi, I dont even play WoW but things changed with WoW and there is simply no going back. Besides which paid account numbers in europe and NA haven't shown a big drop considering the age of the game if you take mmochart as a reliable source, which most do.
My only real beef with wow is the community, thats a player problem though not blizzards fault.
My weakest beef with them is Mages in pvp, my chosen class in wow. Reliance on insta casting and people then complaining about it to get you nerfed sucks, they could a few things that would make them right in my books, but then again they aren't catoring to just me.
Originally posted by Astropuyo My only real beef with wow is the community, thats a player problem though not blizzards fault.
Look at the type of game WoW is, and the type of gamer that the game caters to. It's really no big surprise at all how pathetic the community is there now is it?
I also believe firmly that World of Warcraft has started it's inevitable downward spiral. I recently logged into 3 different servers, and just looking at two major cities I usually frequent, the number of players seems like only about half of what it was 6-8 months ago.
- Zaxx
If you have been visiting the older towns, then there is a perfectly good explenation for that: Most players are now in outland, not in the old towns.
saying "our pickups are the best selling" is something different then stating direct numbers and which numbers you are counting. They could come up with an excuse "But we mean in a certain area!" or "But we were talking about a certain model". But this is not the case with Blizzard. Blizzard has clearly announced the numbers and has explained in great detail what the subscribtion definition is. There are no excuses, its right there on the table. Saying that a company can get away with lying in public statements like that, THATS foolish.
Comments
8.5 millions ACCOUNTS created. Not the same. WoW has less players then 3 months ago, not more. The "Heavy gamer" knows hundred of gamers...the fact not 1 is playing WoW atm...this is something...not scientific granted, but a clear sign. See, how many boxes they sold? If they have 8 millions subs, they must have sold 20 millions boxes...but no, they don't advertise that, why wouldn't they? Because they didn't sold that many! The number you see, still include my account, which I buy on release day and stop playing the next day...and I never pay 1 monthly fee.
Believe their propaganda all you want...
Starcraft MMO wouldn't break 1 million copies sold...I am pretty sure of that. Players are piss at how WoW ends...and players don't forgive as lightly as you want to believe they do. Pissing someone while entertaining them is an extremely poor strategy.
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
8.5 millions ACCOUNTS created. Not the same. WoW has less players then 3 months ago, not more. The "Heavy gamer" knows hundred of gamers...the fact not 1 is playing WoW atm...this is something...not scientific granted, but a clear sign. See, how many boxes they sold? If they have 8 millions subs, they must have sold 20 millions boxes...but no, they don't advertise that, why wouldn't they? Because they didn't sold that many! The number you see, still include my account, which I buy on release day and stop playing the next day...and I never pay 1 monthly fee.
Believe their propaganda all you want...
Starcraft MMO wouldn't break 1 million copies sold...I am pretty sure of that. Players are piss at how WoW ends...and players don't forgive as lightly as you want to believe they do. Pissing someone while entertaining them is an extremely poor strategy.
And this is exactly why doing some research is so dead important.http://www.blizzard.com/press/070307.shtml
This is where Blizzard announced 8.5 subscribers. read this.
"World of Warcraft®'s Subscriber Definition
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees' territories are defined along the same rules."
that subscriber Definition is IN EVERY press release when blizzard announces a new subscriber milestone.
The FACT is that World of Warcraft has 8,5 Million ACTIVE subscribers.
OP is a fool - simply put.
Must have some gypsy in him to forsee the future.
Your like the bad American adverts, saying take this pill you will lose 40lbs.
And you know why you should buy into it? Because the crap advert told you too. Then your a pretty gullable type.
OP "predictions" are Banal at best.
The market changed alot with WoW though. While I would agree that there was a time when, if you were a pretty heavy gamer, you could make decent predictions as to the general health of a game, with WoW that changed.
The mmo market which overnight blizzard practically multiplied 10 fold, are not hardcore gamers. They are the new voice, more powerful than the previous era becasue money talks and they represent a larger market share. They play for fun and it is a past time not a chalenge in the same respect that it used to be. So unless you are one of the new era of social gamers allyour hardcore buddies could leave and blizzard would barely flinch.
I'm not a blizzard fanboi, I dont even play WoW but things changed with WoW and there is simply no going back. Besides which paid account numbers in europe and NA haven't shown a big drop considering the age of the game if you take mmochart as a reliable source, which most do.
-----
The person who is certain, and who claims divine warrant for his certainty, belongs now to the infancy of our species.
WoW how prophetic!!!
"Kill one man, and you are a murderer. Kill millions of men, and you are a conqueror. Kill them all, and you are a god."
-- Jean Rostand
I read that, and I say it is a LIE. Their marketing team would advertise a 10 millions boxes sold, and a 20 millions boxes sold...yet...I still am looking for such advertisement. Initially, in Canada, they use to say the amount of boxes SOLD, and it was the same as this number...now they change it...so I see them blatant LIE.
Never will see it, cause they will never sell that many boxes.
Blizzard are LYING. Technically, I am sure they are right and not LYING, in fact, maybe an account is duplicated and it is considered an active subscriber forever, even if the player cancel his subs. I dunno the detail, maybe it is not a technical LIE, but it sure is a LIE nonetheless, as it is hiding the facts and putting anything in front of you...and you believe them. EXCLUDE ALL PLAYERS, what if they duplicate an account with no player behind it, it would still be an active account, as there are no player behind. I dunno where the catch is, but it is there.
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
WoW how prophetic!!!
Yes iam. At first i thought you said i was pathetic.
WoW how prophetic!!!
Yes iam. At first i thought you said i was pathetic.
Naa i just hinted that your prediction while true were pretty obvious. Also its interesting to note that Blizzard copyied of Warhammer 40k when they made starcraft too. Race wise tho my favourate was the Protoss.
"Kill one man, and you are a murderer. Kill millions of men, and you are a conqueror. Kill them all, and you are a god."
-- Jean Rostand
How did this get turned into a wow thread? Damn you wow people always think anything to do with games must be about wow.
P.S. Wows popularity has nothing to do with Wow. Blizzard is the most respected developer worldwide. Anything Blizzard releases will be popular wordwide. So you wow people can stop saying it is because of wow.
I read that, and I say it is a LIE. Their marketing team would advertise a 10 millions boxes sold, and a 20 millions boxes sold...yet...I still am looking for such advertisement. Initially, in Canada, they use to say the amount of boxes SOLD, and it was the same as this number...now they change it...so I see them blatant LIE.
Never will see it, cause they will never sell that many boxes.
Blizzard are LYING. Technically, I am sure they are right and not LYING, in fact, maybe an account is duplicated and it is considered an active subscriber forever, even if the player cancel his subs. I dunno the detail, maybe it is not a technical LIE, but it sure is a LIE nonetheless, as it is hiding the facts and putting anything in front of you...and you believe them. EXCLUDE ALL PLAYERS, what if they duplicate an account with no player behind it, it would still be an active account, as there are no player behind. I dunno where the catch is, but it is there.
Yes Anofaly, I'm sure that such a small company as Blizzard can get away with making such a lie about their subscriber base and financial status [/sarcasm]
Don't delude yourself Ano. Gravity corp did the same thing as your accusing Blizzard of, and Gravity got sued for that. If a company like Gravity corp gets sued for that, then there is no way that Blizzard gets away with it. Just accept the facts ano, Blizzard has 8,5 milllion subscribers. Look at the huge server base, it truly is enormous. I believe it has around 400 ~ 500 servers including asian servers?
Blizzard is not hiding anything, its very clear about its subscriber definition. World of Warcraft is a worldwide success. I suggest you take off the tin foil helmet and accept the fact that World of Warcraft has 8,5 million subscribers. you're only deluding yourself.
Staying on topic, I'd like to say to the OP that there a few points that I agree with, some I do not.
On the WoW (World of Warcfraft) topic, there is no sure answer to whether or not they are losing subscribers. I can only surmise that with the irritable fanbase being rubbed the wrong way over the seemlying facemelting raid content, and over 3 year old pvp encounters, it's safe to say that TBC (The Burning Crusade) was not enough to hold onto the more dedicated players. *huff puff* Even though I personally am a fallen WoW player, 1 person with 2 accounts can't make an accurate guess at where Blizzard's sales and players will go.
I hate to come into yet another "WoW sucks" / "Wow is dieing" thread, but I will offer these small points:
TBC's expansion lacked new classes, it simply put the only factionally resticted classes for everyone.
PvP is now just as lucrative as Raiding, but not as hard. A player can go afk (Away From Keyboard) in battlegrounds and "earn" epic rewards that rival hardcore PVE content. Additionally, Blizzard mixes PVE and PVP with only one Battleground, no castles stormed, no seige, no innovative elements that were new to TBC. Arena was all that was added, which I give kudos to, even if it is a rather simple addition.
Raiding is STILL the same. Phase one, phase two, dps now, run out here, break line of sight, blah blah. While I have a small list in my head of different aspects, I'm a designer, therefore I charge
. But still, the Chess Event was the only thing I saw that was off the track.
Character customization options are still 5 on 5.
No flying mounts in Azeroth, in fact, no real reason to BE in Azeroth. (once reaching 70)
The list goes on. In any case, these are small fators that may be too late to fix to save their player base. Imo, Blizzard will always have a huge player base, but in terms of the "hardcore" gamer, I think they are going to be spending their money elsewhere. All this is IMO, of course
Clever things.
"At that time, a friend shall lose his friend's hammer, and the young shall not know where lieth the things possessed by their fathers that their fathers put there only just the night before, about 8 o'clock . . ."
BTW if you come back "I ment MMO!" well to bad.. ya shoulda specified.
Anyway I agree with the OPs predictions as well as I saw this shit coming as well.
I don't play WoW anymore, but my only reason is I hate the graphics. Me being an artist. I'm picky about my graphics.
I do see AoC being "OK", but it's far from great. You don't actually "Aim" your attacks like in Obilivion. You select a location on the person to attack. It's still done D&D style with attack roles and the whole 9 yards. So the shit they spew out is all bullcrap and hype. Not to mention the damn game is instanced out the ass and I mean Guildwars hardcore instancing. Also wtf is with the nudity? I want an entertaining game.. not fking porn.. that's just another way to add a stupid "feature" to waste development time and resources.
Oh I predict LOTRO will flop and only fanbois will stick around. Played that pile of garbage for 2months. End-game is boring and dead. It's half-assed WoW with a graphic over-hall. Weaksauce, at most.
Currently i'm playing CoH/CoV and having a blast. Very fun game. Yes it's tedious, but i'm now heavily casual with my job and all so it works for me. Good graphics. Good game play. Good community. Now with the crafting system it's pretty sweet. I've been trying to see how many cool temp powers I can collect lol. I don't even have to shout to grps.. grps come to you.. that's just awesome. Beats shouting for a group in LOTRO for 3hrs to only get 2people LOL.
Anyway i'm going to try AoC and maybe Warhammer (don't like the graphics, but we'll see if they use postprocessing effects well to make it look nice).
Other then that I have no other interests. Tabula Rasa looks like freaken grabage. If I wanted to play a FPS game. I'd play a good FPS game. Same goes for an RPG game. Which is why i'm buying "Two Worlds" next month. Badass rpg game with a little multiplayer in it. I now just play MMOs to get my "Other" kicks. CoV/CoH.. never seen a good single player for that style, etc.
Now a days games have just been so sucky it ain't worth the time or more. *shrug*.. I can accomplish something in 2hrs of play on CoV/CoH.. not many games you can do that in anymore (at the end-game).
You are forgetting that AoC is also for the xBox. This is an total unknown factor, as to how well it will do.
I also have a prediction, Hellgate:London will be huge. After it comes out and word gets around it will be the next big thing. Getting MMO players, and non-MMO players.
I also believe firmly that World of Warcraft has started it's inevitable downward spiral. I recently logged into 3 different servers, and just looking at two major cities I usually frequent, the number of players seems like only about half of what it was 6-8 months ago.
..I know that it not scientific evidence to go by, and that it certainly doesn't mean that I'm absolutely correct.
But Blizzards statements may not be 100% accurate either. The fact is that big companies distort numbers to make them look like the biggest, most successful company on earth, and they will tell you 99% lie, and as long as there is 1% truth in it somewhere, they get away with it. Look at how Toyota, Ford, Chevy, and Dodge all have TV ads all the time, all stating that they are the best selling pickup trucks in America or the world. Pretty amazing how they ALL are the number one selling trucks in the world isn't it?
Let's assume for a moment that Ano and myself are correct in our observations/statements that we think WoW has started it's downward spiral. ..Do you really think that Blizzard is going to come up and announce "Oh wow, we lost 1 million active subscribers in the last 6 weeks" (for example). HELL NO! They are going to use their millions of dollars to pay some smart college grads to figure out how to say something about how they are more successful then ever and legally get away with saying so.
I don't know for sure whether WoW is losing tons of active subscribers and what those numbers actually are. But if you believe every statement that Blizzard puts out about their numbers and continued dominance, then you are a fool.
I've predicted WoW's big fall for a long time now (atleast a year and half ago I made a bold prediction that WoW would fall soon) It's gonna take a little longer then I originally predicted, but it will happen none-the-less. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.. and WoW was built for short term success and short term BIG BUCKS. It's mega fall is coming soon. It will be nothing compared what it once was in the not-too-distant future.
Watch and see.
(Oh yes, and I still hold my prediction I made last year that Asheron's Call will still be active when WoW closes down) Not that it matters in the financial outlook of both games, but still it was a pretty bold prediction, and I still believe it will happen.
- Zaxx
Wow will make a come back?
FYI it's still the most played mmo in the world, can't stand the game but damn... You can't just create facts. It's still number one.
I actually agree with your analytics, but they aren't predictions. Some are off, but a few are right on.
You just see this stuff as a person who should be in buisness sees stuff, nothing special, still it's nothing to laugh at either.
Go get a NBA and make something with those skills mate.
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If WOW added player housing, crap loads of more 10-15 men instances, more PVP options, more PVE options i think it will become popular again.
My only real beef with wow is the community, thats a player problem though not blizzards fault.
My weakest beef with them is Mages in pvp, my chosen class in wow. Reliance on insta casting and people then complaining about it to get you nerfed sucks, they could a few things that would make them right in my books, but then again they aren't catoring to just me.
Look at the type of game WoW is, and the type of gamer that the game caters to. It's really no big surprise at all how pathetic the community is there now is it?
- Zaxx
People have been complaining about locks for 2 years now theyve just been buffing them :P
My prediction: the OP will be sitting on pillows for awhile, as I'm sure pulling all of those "predictions" out of his butt must be uncomfortable.
If you have been visiting the older towns, then there is a perfectly good explenation for that: Most players are now in outland, not in the old towns.
saying "our pickups are the best selling" is something different then stating direct numbers and which numbers you are counting. They could come up with an excuse "But we mean in a certain area!" or "But we were talking about a certain model". But this is not the case with Blizzard. Blizzard has clearly announced the numbers and has explained in great detail what the subscribtion definition is. There are no excuses, its right there on the table. Saying that a company can get away with lying in public statements like that, THATS foolish.
ye he really god PWNED haha. kids