I'm not even much of a Lord of the Rings fan, and I love this game cause of the solid game play and balance. I thank my friend who got my into it. This game is going to be one of the top contenders for a while to come, and yeah .. I can say most certainly on my server Arkenstone theres been a big population boom recently.
Population boom on most servers has been due to the 7 day free trial, at least that's what happened on the 2 servers that I play(ed) on.
In 1 year subs will be down by 50%, this game got no longlivity in it tbh. Allot of competition comming up aswell and people wont play with a semi fun/good game next year. Landscape graphic is amazing, starting areas is so nice. But at lvl50 this gam SUCKS so MUCH. There is absolutly nothing to keep me playing it at lvl 50. Lvl 1-45 this game is fine, past 45 it goes down.. fast.
Thanks for your opinion. With out proof and facts to support your assumption that subs will be down by 50% next year. It is nothing but your opinion. The game may have no longivity for you. But that doesn't meen it doen't for alot of other people.
The next update they are adding new area to Misty mountains for lvl 45-50, Same in the trollshaws. They are adding a instance in the misty mountains. Goblin town for lvl 50. They are adding the first balrog to the game then too.
Games take time to grow and develope. And if you think that they won't develope content to keep people busy at lvl cap by next year you are fooling yourself. Heck just the first expansion coming out with a cap increase will keep the game going.There is more eveidence out there to prove you wrong than to prove you right.
I predict in one year there will still be haters prognosticating LOTRO's imminent demise.
_____________________________ Currently Playing: LOTRO; DDO Played: AC2, AO, Auto Assault, CoX, DAoC, DDO, Earth&Beyond, EQ1, EQ2, EVE, Fallen Earth, Jumpgate, Roma Victor, Second Life, SWG, V:SoH, WoW, World War II Online.
Games I'm watching: Infinity: The Quest for Earth, Force of Arms.
I predict in one year there will still be haters prognosticating LOTRO's imminent demise.
...and the fanbois will still be screaming that their "server is so full" and "New people are joing all the time!" with about the same amount of credibility.
I predict in one year there will still be haters prognosticating LOTRO's imminent demise.
...and the fanbois will still be screaming that their "server is so full" and "New people are joing all the time!" with about the same amount of credibility.
All though i been labled a fan boi as you put it. I have never screamed that my server is full. I have noticed the server load icon alot lately. I have also seen growth in my kinship. Of new members who have just started playing the game. This tells me in my opinion that the game is growing. Now wether it is growing at a huge rate or not or just that the few who have been jioning the game like my kinship better than the others. I have no idea. But i do not see that mass exodus alot of people claim from the game.
It really all comes down to ones observations of the game and their opinions. Wich opinions are hard to prove as fact since they are bais by nature.
I think it has potential ...i think most mmo playerz look down at it because only one faction. After lvl 10 u may play as a monster....lol
I think people look down at it because it is very simple game
This does not imply a bad thing. Sorry. Some people enjoy a simple fun game. Some of the most fun games of all time are simple.
But I also disagree with it being simple.
Please also keep in mind, that: Large amounts of time != Challenge.
Thanks!
---------- "Anyone posting on this forum is not an average user, and there for any opinions about the game are going to be overly critical compared to an average users opinions." - Me
"Hello person posting on a site specifically for MMO's in a thread on a sub forum specifically for a particular game talking about meta features and making comparisons to other titles in the genre, and their meta features.
I think it has potential ...i think most mmo playerz look down at it because only one faction. After lvl 10 u may play as a monster....lol
I think people look down at it because it is very simple game
This does not imply a bad thing. Sorry. Some people enjoy a simple fun game. Some of the most fun games of all time are simple.
But I also disagree with it being simple.
Please also keep in mind, that: Large amounts of time != Challenge.
Thanks!
This is true. If people look down on simple games and don't play them. Then WOW would never of done as good as it has. Not everyone likes a hard lvling curve in a game. Or bosses that are basically unbeatable. The harder the game is the more the person feels like they are beating their head against a wall and getting no where. Well that is my opinion anyway. I know some people like hard challenging games. While others like simple games. Yet others like a game in the middle road of hard and simple.
Each too their owne. I just don't understand why people bad mouth a game if they don't play it, or don't care for it. There are alot of games that i have tried that i don't care for or like. I don't frequent the forums for those games cause my opinion of those games doesn't matter to those who like the game.
MY history: Ob, Main lvl 50 within 2 months of release and quitted after alt got to lvl 16.
1. Not much to do when i got my last level, felt pointless to do those instances. The problem with lotro instances is that they are LONG nor hard or challanging just LONG and sometimes i fell aslweep while doing them, honestly.
2. There isent much character development that sets my char diffrent from any other, much like wow where there was a cupple of skill builds and everyone in the guild was going for the same gear, here its even worse since there is no real endgame gear except for those that can be crafted. This is good in a game like DAOC since it balance pvp better but in this game there is simpy less to do. TBH, if i play my char for 200 houers after i maxed lvl i will barly see any diffrentce at all, maby a few minor tweaks of eq. I grinded my traits while levling so only got a few uppgrades after reaching 50.
3. When i made my alt i started woundering why i ever played this game, it was not fun to begin with. Thats when i relized that the only reason i stayed with the game for so long was since the people i enjoy gaming with joined this game with me and we had a blast even thoe the game was really basic and not so challanging, just annoying to keep everyone at same stage while getting to 50. Also its really retarded to do all those quests agin sicne they are not much fun.
I do not ask much from new games, but something more than lotro had, tbh this game only had tons of not so fun quests and really nice graphic. JUST SOMETHING NEW and something that makes my char diffrent plus some character development at endgame would be REALLY nice. Fun grouping would be a big plus.
I belive casual players ruined mmorpg a bit. Since allot of games has released to make solo play easy group play becomes really rare and i think that grouping and playing with other people is the soul of mmorpg, whitout it i cant see any longlivity in a game and i might aswell go back to solo player fps games. Also the mmorpg crowd has changed allot, it was allot better in UO days imo.
In 1 year subs will be down by 50%, this game got no longlivity in it tbh. Allot of competition comming up aswell and people wont play with a semi fun/good game next year. Landscape graphic is amazing, starting areas is so nice. But at lvl50 this gam SUCKS so MUCH. There is absolutly nothing to keep me playing it at lvl 50. Lvl 1-45 this game is fine, past 45 it goes down.. fast.
Thanks for your opinion. With out proof and facts to support your assumption that subs will be down by 50% next year. It is nothing but your opinion. The game may have no longivity for you. But that doesn't meen it doen't for alot of other people.
The next update they are adding new area to Misty mountains for lvl 45-50, Same in the trollshaws. They are adding a instance in the misty mountains. Goblin town for lvl 50. They are adding the first balrog to the game then too.
Games take time to grow and develope. And if you think that they won't develope content to keep people busy at lvl cap by next year you are fooling yourself. Heck just the first expansion coming out with a cap increase will keep the game going.There is more eveidence out there to prove you wrong than to prove you right.
Honestly?? whats your point? Cant understand why you even comment my post since your is not relevant to mine. Why would i need proof or facts , i am just predicting something that seems pritty obvius to me and i talked with allot of people who used to play lotro and they feel the same. Games that makes you wait for updates that is grinded to death in 2 weeks is incompleat games imo. I never felt the games i priviesly played made me wait for uppdates like ppl in lotro is doing right now. Why would i pay to wait for a uppdate? from release to now there hasent been much to do so basicly its wrong to take a monthly fee imo. Uppdates wused to be something extra, usaly fixes, not something req to keep playing the game. LA2 had a nice uppdate system with patches that makes lotro uppdates look like nothing. But most people dident finnish or grind everything out befor the uppdate was live, so it was basicly just a nice addition.
In 1 year subs will be down by 50%, this game got no longlivity in it tbh. Allot of competition comming up aswell and people wont play with a semi fun/good game next year. Landscape graphic is amazing, starting areas is so nice. But at lvl50 this gam SUCKS so MUCH. There is absolutly nothing to keep me playing it at lvl 50. Lvl 1-45 this game is fine, past 45 it goes down.. fast.
Thanks for your opinion. With out proof and facts to support your assumption that subs will be down by 50% next year. It is nothing but your opinion. The game may have no longivity for you. But that doesn't meen it doen't for alot of other people.
The next update they are adding new area to Misty mountains for lvl 45-50, Same in the trollshaws. They are adding a instance in the misty mountains. Goblin town for lvl 50. They are adding the first balrog to the game then too.
Games take time to grow and develope. And if you think that they won't develope content to keep people busy at lvl cap by next year you are fooling yourself. Heck just the first expansion coming out with a cap increase will keep the game going.There is more eveidence out there to prove you wrong than to prove you right.
Honestly?? whats your point? Cant understand why you even comment my post since your is not relevant to mine. Why would i need proof or facts , i am just predicting something that seems pritty obvius to me and i talked with allot of people who used to play lotro and they feel the same. Games that makes you wait for updates that is grinded to death in 2 weeks is incompleat games imo. I never felt the games i priviesly played made me wait for uppdates like ppl in lotro is doing right now. Why would i pay to wait for a uppdate? from release to now there hasent been much to do so basicly its wrong to take a monthly fee imo. Uppdates wused to be something extra, usaly fixes, not something req to keep playing the game. LA2 had a nice uppdate system with patches that makes lotro uppdates look like nothing. But most people dident finnish or grind everything out befor the uppdate was live, so it was basicly just a nice addition.
You are the one who said there is nothing for lvl 45+. I was just pointing out they are adding stuff for that range you and many others say are lacking. I never claimed that a person should play for updates. Yes in your opinion it is an imcomplete game. Yet on the other hand no MMO is ever finished until they close it down. So no MMO is ever complete.
You are the one claiming that subs will be down by 50% in a year. With in a year the first expansion will be out wich will bring in people as well as will the updats. You have no proof to support your claim of subs being down by 50% in a year. That is i say you have no proof or that your opinion is not fact.
All the updates have had bug fixes, They also add new quets for lvl ranges. Plus they expand the game.
If you can't understand why i replied then you need to re read carefully what i posted. You make a comment of fact based off of you opinion. If you would of said in my opinion i think subs will be down by 50% then that would of been differant. I was just pointing out that with all of the work that turbine is putting into the game that your opinion holds no water.
Chill out. It was not a personal attack on you. Yet i guess when someone disagrees with your opinion you can't understand why they would reply to it.
Why? Well, a bunch of people I know have left the game. A whole guild! And, people I talk to say they know people who are leaving, too.
So obviously, if so many people are leaving, the game is on its way out.
Hey... I think a chunk of sky just landed outside my window.
</sarcasm>
Let me put this into another context:
People thought Saga of Ryzom would be dead a *long* time ago. I even thought it was an ill-fated game based on all the trouble surrounding it - bankruptcies, server merges, etc. Yet... it's still here.
Horizons has had enough lives to turn a cat green - by all rights, it could have died several times now. Yet, it's still going and, in fact, was recently bought out by a privately held company of former developers who are very aggressively working to bring the game back. Point is... most people (again, myself included) thought for sure the game was limping by on borrowed time. Guess what... It's still around.
For all intents and purposes, Shadowbane *was* dead. Guess what - it's still around. Why because there are people who saw it worthwhile to keep it going and, likewise, people who still really enjoy playing it.
None of these games have numbers approaching even LoTRO, nevermind WoW. But ask the people playing and enjoying those games if that matters in the least to them?
Point is... you can point to as many people you "know" or "talk to" in-game or elsewhere as you want. It doesn't mean anything. LoTRO's population is measured in the 10s of thousands... not in mere 10s or 100s. And just as people are leaving, new people are coming in.
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
LotRO is not the most innovative game, but it does bring some things to the table that can keep players interested for now and into the future. I would say it should have the lifespan of most other major MMOs, like EQ2, etc. as long as they continue to add to the game. Here are some of the reasons I think so:
1. The LotR theme. For fans of Middle Earth, this is a fun and immersive atmosphere and storyline.
2. A whole new game to play. Hundreds of quests to do and some new characters to play. While it doesn't have anything overly new to the gameplay, it is a NEW game. For people who have played WoW or other MMOs to death, this is just a fresh start in a new place.
3. PvMP. It's a fresh take on PvP that many people have been enjoying. It offers strategic PvP similar to the RvR action of DAoC, while allowing lower-level players to join the field as monsters.
There are other minor points that some people find enjoyable, but over all it's a pretty good experience for an MMO. It's fun, diverse, and new. Hopefully they can keep the game fresh and fun in the future. If they can, they'll keep players until something innovative and striking comes along.
Doing just fine, and having an ASS TON of content at the rate they are going.
They seem to add one new feature, and at least two new full blown areas ever two months.
And there scripted encounters are REALLY fun, surprising, creative, and engaging.
---------- "Anyone posting on this forum is not an average user, and there for any opinions about the game are going to be overly critical compared to an average users opinions." - Me
"Hello person posting on a site specifically for MMO's in a thread on a sub forum specifically for a particular game talking about meta features and making comparisons to other titles in the genre, and their meta features.
There's three basic schools of thought as I see it...
At the extreme ends you have:
- "It'll be dead in a year because it sucks and is just a WoW clone and does nothing new and Turbine sucks and they eat small kittens and sacrifice chickens" - Wishful thinking.
- "It'll be doing gang-busters, will have millions of players and will be the best MMO ever and everyone will know it" - Wishful thinking.
In the middle of the road you have:
- "It'll be doing well enough for Turbine to turn a profit and keep it going; certainly well enough for the players who enjoy it to continue enjoying it." - Most realistic/reasonable
I subscribe to the "middle of the road" mentality. I'm not fanatically for it, I'm not fanatically against it. I think it's a fun game. It doesn't break any hugely revolutionary ground, but it doesn't have to. It's a good game, in my opinion, and I plan to continue playing it until I decide otherwise, or they pull the plug - which ever comes first.
'course... if I come to the point where I have to choose one over another... Unfortunately LoTRO loses, as my first choice is and always will be FFXI.
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
Well this time next year with WAR, AoC, Aion, POTBS and the rest all most likely released (not darkfall of course), I think lotro will be all but forgotten with enough fans still playing for turbine to turn a profit but the outlook isn't so hot.
I say the middle of the road, it will dwindle in number of players over the year, but there will still be enough for Turbine to keep it running and maybe even make a little profit.
Myself, I turned my LOTRO account about 3 months ago. You can only kill so many spiders, boars and warthogs before you say, you know, this game is mind numbingly repetitive.
This was a very well put together game, one of the best launches I've ever seen but *YAWN* gets quite boring rather quickly. I'm also a huge LOTR and Tolkien fanboi but the game just wasn't enough to hold my interest. The lack of decent PvP and the go here and kill 10 mobs, or collect 30 boar snouts, etc. was just more of the same MMO mechanics that most every other game in the genre seems to be stuck in.
Well this time next year with WAR, AoC, Aion, POTBS and the rest all most likely released (not darkfall of course), I think lotro will be all but forgotten with enough fans still playing for turbine to turn a profit but the outlook isn't so hot.
I see this point-of-view expressed quite often and, really, it's unfounded. There is no historical precedent that shows that the release of a new, shiny game has single-handedly killed another MMO. Those games will not drain LoTRO any more than any of the existing games have. Simply for the reason that not everyone is going to be interested in those games.
If any game should proves the fallacy of such a thing, it's WoW. Despite its millions of players, that it's the only MMO some people have ever played and, indeed, introduced them to the genre, there are people who have zero interest in WoW and/or remain happily in which ever MMO they were already playing. Some MMO's were hardly affected by its launch. I know FFXI's population hardly budged in response to WoW's release. Why? Because people simply aren't interested in WoW and are perfectly at home in FFXI. Same with DAoC. Same with Anarchy Online and many other games.
Will some people leave LoTRO for those games? Sure. Just as they'll leave WoW and other existing MMOs. But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO. Again, there is no historical precedent to prove otherwise. If there is, please provide it because I've seen none.
I'm almost tempted to put this mindset in the "wishful thinking" category.
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
Well this time next year with WAR, AoC, Aion, POTBS and the rest all most likely released (not darkfall of course), I think lotro will be all but forgotten with enough fans still playing for turbine to turn a profit but the outlook isn't so hot.
I see this point-of-view expressed quite often and, really, it's unfounded. There is no historical precedent that shows that the release of a new, shiny game has single-handedly killed another MMO. Those games will not drain LoTRO any more than any of the existing games have. Simply for the reason that not everyone is going to be interested in those games.
If any game should proves the fallacy of such a thing, it's WoW. Despite its millions of players, that it's the only MMO some people have ever played and, indeed, introduced them to the genre, there are people who have zero interest in WoW and/or remain happily in which ever MMO they were already playing. Some MMO's were hardly affected by its launch. I know FFXI's population hardly budged in response to WoW's release. Why? Because people simply aren't interested in WoW and are perfectly at home in FFXI. Same with DAoC. Same with Anarchy Online and many other games.
Will some people leave LoTRO for those games? Sure. Just as they'll leave WoW and other existing MMOs. But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO. Again, there is no historical precedent to back this up.
I'm almost tempted to put this mindset in the "wishful thinking" category.
I do not believe the user has stated "Death" for LOTRO, but does say enough "Fans" playing which sounds reasonable to keep LOTRO afloat..
Really, as long as Turbine keeps a 100k subs going for LOTRO, they really will have no issues keeping it up and running...now AC2 died due to falling at or below 35k...a break even number..and had no major pull for anyone (as it changed too many things for AC fans)
But, I think Turbine does not want to break even. LOTRO will live on license for sure..and will be profitable...
Overall the titles listed are all big games to watch, and will start separating the market...and I will be interested to see which game overall has the most pull (PvE or PvP...which one innovates...etc..)...WAR and AoC have major fans, and Aion should be interesting with it's PvPvE focus...
Well this time next year with WAR, AoC, Aion, POTBS and the rest all most likely released (not darkfall of course), I think lotro will be all but forgotten with enough fans still playing for turbine to turn a profit but the outlook isn't so hot.
I see this point-of-view expressed quite often and, really, it's unfounded. There is no historical precedent that shows that the release of a new, shiny game has single-handedly killed another MMO. Those games will not drain LoTRO any more than any of the existing games have. Simply for the reason that not everyone is going to be interested in those games.
If any game should proves the fallacy of such a thing, it's WoW. Despite its millions of players, that it's the only MMO some people have ever played and, indeed, introduced them to the genre, there are people who have zero interest in WoW and/or remain happily in which ever MMO they were already playing. Some MMO's were hardly affected by its launch. I know FFXI's population hardly budged in response to WoW's release. Why? Because people simply aren't interested in WoW and are perfectly at home in FFXI. Same with DAoC. Same with Anarchy Online and many other games.
Will some people leave LoTRO for those games? Sure. Just as they'll leave WoW and other existing MMOs. But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO. Again, there is no historical precedent to back this up.
I'm almost tempted to put this mindset in the "wishful thinking" category.
I do not believe the user has stated "Death" for LOTRO, but does say enough "Fans" playing which sounds reasonable to keep LOTRO afloat..
Really, as long as Turbine keeps a 100k subs going for LOTRO, they really will have no issues keeping it up and running...now AC2 died due to falling at or below 35k...a break even number..and had no major pull for anyone (as it changed too many things for AC fans)
But, I think Turbine does not want to break even. LOTRO will live on license for sure..and will be profitable...
Overall the titles listed are all big games to watch, and will start separating the market...and I will be interested to see which game overall has the most pull (PvE or PvP...which one innovates...etc..)...WAR and AoC have major fans, and Aion should be interesting with it's PvPvE focus...
Cheers!
Fair enough.. the word "death" wasn't used. It still implies a significant reduction to the game's population based on these new games coming out that, regardless, still has no historical precedent. No one will know the net effect until those games are out and have gone through that initial period of a bunch of people joining, and then cancelling after their free month is up. Even then, without actual verifiable numbers no one will know for sure.
As far as the "article" you pointed to... It's someone's personal blog entry from someone who likes to talk about various MMOs he's playing. It's not an article, as in "researched and written by someone who has received the information they're writing about directly from the source".
While I enjoy reading many blogs, I acknowledge them for what they are - people posting their points-of-view on a variety of topics, in a very editorial style.
While what he talks about is common-sense enough in general, that's where it ends. Anything more specific about that - as in LoTRO's specific situation - and it enters the realm of supposition. Do they have internal contacts in Turbine who feed them this information? How do they know what 100k subscribers would mean to Turbine? Do they have access to Turbine's accounting info? Do they know how Turbine has their money for LoTRO budgeted? Do they know what Turbine has defined as their "lowest acceptable" subscription numbers for the game to still be profitable, or merely break even for that matter? Does he know how much is spent on development and maintenance of the game, versus how much they're actually making on it, on a monthly basis? Absent any of that specific data, and his opinion is just as valid as anyone else's.
Not knocking the guy at all... But he's a guy with an opinion who has a blog. They're a dime a dozen.
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
Well this time next year with WAR, AoC, Aion, POTBS and the rest all most likely released (not darkfall of course), I think lotro will be all but forgotten with enough fans still playing for turbine to turn a profit but the outlook isn't so hot.
I see this point-of-view expressed quite often and, really, it's unfounded. There is no historical precedent that shows that the release of a new, shiny game has single-handedly killed another MMO. Those games will not drain LoTRO any more than any of the existing games have. Simply for the reason that not everyone is going to be interested in those games.
If any game should proves the fallacy of such a thing, it's WoW. Despite its millions of players, that it's the only MMO some people have ever played and, indeed, introduced them to the genre, there are people who have zero interest in WoW and/or remain happily in which ever MMO they were already playing. Some MMO's were hardly affected by its launch. I know FFXI's population hardly budged in response to WoW's release. Why? Because people simply aren't interested in WoW and are perfectly at home in FFXI. Same with DAoC. Same with Anarchy Online and many other games.
Will some people leave LoTRO for those games? Sure. Just as they'll leave WoW and other existing MMOs. But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO. Again, there is no historical precedent to back this up.
I'm almost tempted to put this mindset in the "wishful thinking" category.
I do not believe the user has stated "Death" for LOTRO, but does say enough "Fans" playing which sounds reasonable to keep LOTRO afloat..
Really, as long as Turbine keeps a 100k subs going for LOTRO, they really will have no issues keeping it up and running...now AC2 died due to falling at or below 35k...a break even number..and had no major pull for anyone (as it changed too many things for AC fans)
But, I think Turbine does not want to break even. LOTRO will live on license for sure..and will be profitable...
Overall the titles listed are all big games to watch, and will start separating the market...and I will be interested to see which game overall has the most pull (PvE or PvP...which one innovates...etc..)...WAR and AoC have major fans, and Aion should be interesting with it's PvPvE focus...
Cheers!
Fair enough.. the word "death" wasn't used. It still implies a significant reduction to the game's population based on these new games coming out that, regardless, still has no historical precedent. No one will know the net effect until those games are out and have gone through that initial period of a bunch of people joining, and then cancelling after their free month is up. Even then, without actual verifiable numbers no one will know for sure.
As far as the "article" you pointed to... It's someone's personal blog entry from someone who likes to talk about various MMOs he's playing. It's not an article, as in "researched and written by someone who has received the information they're writing about directly from the source".
While I enjoy reading many blogs, I acknowledge them for what they are - people posting their points-of-view on a variety of topics, in a very editorial style.
While what he talks about is common-sense enough in general, that's where it ends. Anything more specific about that - as in LoTRO's specific situation - and it enters the realm of supposition. Do they have internal contacts in Turbine who feed them this information? How do they know what 100k subscribers would mean to Turbine? Do they have access to Turbine's accounting info? Do they know how Turbine has their money for LoTRO budgeted? Do they know what Turbine has defined as their "lowest acceptable" subscription numbers for the game to still be profitable, or merely break even for that matter? Does he know how much is spent on development and maintenance of the game, versus how much they're actually making on it, on a monthly basis? Absent any of that specific data, and his opinion is just as valid as anyone else's.
Not knocking the guy at all... But he's a guy with an opinion who has a blog. They're a dime a dozen.
At least I know you did not read the article, as the blogger did post that it was an estimate of numbers based on criteria gathered from various sources...
He was trying to show how a game may survive depending on the subscriptions being rendered..The reason I pointed it out is how it related to this post. It is a good summation of how this may proceed when the newer titles come out next year...
He also never stated he had numbers from Turbine (as we cannot rely on them for information anyways...4 million and counting...kinda like the McDonalds of MMO's)...
I thought it was a good "THEORY" on numbers, and I never said it was in stone.....just wanted to share some insight is all...
O.K. since we are all doing the "crystal ball" thingy. Here is my prediction:
WAR, AoC, Aion, POTBS
Of those 4 listed above...
1 will fail miserably... akin to Dark-and-Light
1 will be rushed to market way before it's ready... akin to Vanguard
1 will immediately go to F2P status... akin to ArchLord
1 will be moderately successful... akin to LoTRO
As for LoTRO itself in a year? I think it'll have more subs than now. It'll have more content in 1 year, and a lot of people say they like the game, but just don't have enough to do to keep them playing... so, it makes sense that more content will equal more subs. Especially if I am right about the other games above.
Given the past 2-3 years in MMO releases, I find it very interesting that so many people are predicting rampant success with these new titles. You'd think that we would have learned by now. There will be many more failures than successes where MMOs are concerned. Just like with movies... there are many more box-office bombs than there are blockbusters. It's just the nature of the beast.
Game will still be around, but in the shadow of WAR and AoC. Something bigger is comming and you just can't ignore it. Kinda like EQ2 and WoW.... EQ2 lives in the shadow of WoW.
Well, write this down and keep somewhere safe... cause I'd bet all I have on it that it won't be so!
Not because of LOTRO, but because none of these games will even be remotely as big as the hype suggests I will be _really_ surprised if any of them will ever hit 1 million subscribers! It doesn't matter how good they will be, but the mass market still only knows WOW, they are only starting to discover LOTRO (but many of them won't come over...). These 2 games (WAR and AOC) are only getting the hardcore MMO playerbase wet so far... the MMOG market is not at all as big as imagined kindof like the www bubble around 2000... it'll just pop.
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
Comments
Currently Playing Nothing...
The next update they are adding new area to Misty mountains for lvl 45-50, Same in the trollshaws. They are adding a instance in the misty mountains. Goblin town for lvl 50. They are adding the first balrog to the game then too.
Games take time to grow and develope. And if you think that they won't develope content to keep people busy at lvl cap by next year you are fooling yourself. Heck just the first expansion coming out with a cap increase will keep the game going.There is more eveidence out there to prove you wrong than to prove you right.
I predict in one year there will still be haters prognosticating LOTRO's imminent demise.
_____________________________
Currently Playing: LOTRO; DDO
Played: AC2, AO, Auto Assault, CoX, DAoC, DDO, Earth&Beyond, EQ1, EQ2, EVE, Fallen Earth, Jumpgate, Roma Victor, Second Life, SWG, V:SoH, WoW, World War II Online.
Games I'm watching: Infinity: The Quest for Earth, Force of Arms.
Find the Truth: http://www.factcheck.org/
...and the fanbois will still be screaming that their "server is so full" and "New people are joing all the time!" with about the same amount of credibility.
...and the fanbois will still be screaming that their "server is so full" and "New people are joing all the time!" with about the same amount of credibility.
All though i been labled a fan boi as you put it. I have never screamed that my server is full. I have noticed the server load icon alot lately. I have also seen growth in my kinship. Of new members who have just started playing the game. This tells me in my opinion that the game is growing. Now wether it is growing at a huge rate or not or just that the few who have been jioning the game like my kinship better than the others. I have no idea. But i do not see that mass exodus alot of people claim from the game.
It really all comes down to ones observations of the game and their opinions. Wich opinions are hard to prove as fact since they are bais by nature.
This I can wholeheartedly /agree with.
I think people look down at it because it is very simple game
This does not imply a bad thing. Sorry. Some people enjoy a simple fun game. Some of the most fun games of all time are simple.
But I also disagree with it being simple.
Please also keep in mind, that: Large amounts of time != Challenge.
Thanks!
----------
"Anyone posting on this forum is not an average user, and there for any opinions about the game are going to be overly critical compared to an average users opinions." - Me
"No, your wrong.." - Random user #123
"Hello person posting on a site specifically for MMO's in a thread on a sub forum specifically for a particular game talking about meta features and making comparisons to other titles in the genre, and their meta features.
How are you?" -Me
I think people look down at it because it is very simple game
This does not imply a bad thing. Sorry. Some people enjoy a simple fun game. Some of the most fun games of all time are simple.
But I also disagree with it being simple.
Please also keep in mind, that: Large amounts of time != Challenge.
Thanks!
This is true. If people look down on simple games and don't play them. Then WOW would never of done as good as it has. Not everyone likes a hard lvling curve in a game. Or bosses that are basically unbeatable. The harder the game is the more the person feels like they are beating their head against a wall and getting no where. Well that is my opinion anyway. I know some people like hard challenging games. While others like simple games. Yet others like a game in the middle road of hard and simple.Each too their owne. I just don't understand why people bad mouth a game if they don't play it, or don't care for it. There are alot of games that i have tried that i don't care for or like. I don't frequent the forums for those games cause my opinion of those games doesn't matter to those who like the game.
This game isen't much fun imo.
MY history: Ob, Main lvl 50 within 2 months of release and quitted after alt got to lvl 16.
1. Not much to do when i got my last level, felt pointless to do those instances. The problem with lotro instances is that they are LONG nor hard or challanging just LONG and sometimes i fell aslweep while doing them, honestly.
2. There isent much character development that sets my char diffrent from any other, much like wow where there was a cupple of skill builds and everyone in the guild was going for the same gear, here its even worse since there is no real endgame gear except for those that can be crafted. This is good in a game like DAOC since it balance pvp better but in this game there is simpy less to do. TBH, if i play my char for 200 houers after i maxed lvl i will barly see any diffrentce at all, maby a few minor tweaks of eq. I grinded my traits while levling so only got a few uppgrades after reaching 50.
3. When i made my alt i started woundering why i ever played this game, it was not fun to begin with. Thats when i relized that the only reason i stayed with the game for so long was since the people i enjoy gaming with joined this game with me and we had a blast even thoe the game was really basic and not so challanging, just annoying to keep everyone at same stage while getting to 50. Also its really retarded to do all those quests agin sicne they are not much fun.
I do not ask much from new games, but something more than lotro had, tbh this game only had tons of not so fun quests and really nice graphic. JUST SOMETHING NEW and something that makes my char diffrent plus some character development at endgame would be REALLY nice. Fun grouping would be a big plus.
I belive casual players ruined mmorpg a bit. Since allot of games has released to make solo play easy group play becomes really rare and i think that grouping and playing with other people is the soul of mmorpg, whitout it i cant see any longlivity in a game and i might aswell go back to solo player fps games. Also the mmorpg crowd has changed allot, it was allot better in UO days imo.
The next update they are adding new area to Misty mountains for lvl 45-50, Same in the trollshaws. They are adding a instance in the misty mountains. Goblin town for lvl 50. They are adding the first balrog to the game then too.
Games take time to grow and develope. And if you think that they won't develope content to keep people busy at lvl cap by next year you are fooling yourself. Heck just the first expansion coming out with a cap increase will keep the game going.There is more eveidence out there to prove you wrong than to prove you right.
Honestly?? whats your point? Cant understand why you even comment my post since your is not relevant to mine. Why would i need proof or facts , i am just predicting something that seems pritty obvius to me and i talked with allot of people who used to play lotro and they feel the same. Games that makes you wait for updates that is grinded to death in 2 weeks is incompleat games imo. I never felt the games i priviesly played made me wait for uppdates like ppl in lotro is doing right now. Why would i pay to wait for a uppdate? from release to now there hasent been much to do so basicly its wrong to take a monthly fee imo. Uppdates wused to be something extra, usaly fixes, not something req to keep playing the game. LA2 had a nice uppdate system with patches that makes lotro uppdates look like nothing. But most people dident finnish or grind everything out befor the uppdate was live, so it was basicly just a nice addition.
The next update they are adding new area to Misty mountains for lvl 45-50, Same in the trollshaws. They are adding a instance in the misty mountains. Goblin town for lvl 50. They are adding the first balrog to the game then too.
Games take time to grow and develope. And if you think that they won't develope content to keep people busy at lvl cap by next year you are fooling yourself. Heck just the first expansion coming out with a cap increase will keep the game going.There is more eveidence out there to prove you wrong than to prove you right.
Honestly?? whats your point? Cant understand why you even comment my post since your is not relevant to mine. Why would i need proof or facts , i am just predicting something that seems pritty obvius to me and i talked with allot of people who used to play lotro and they feel the same. Games that makes you wait for updates that is grinded to death in 2 weeks is incompleat games imo. I never felt the games i priviesly played made me wait for uppdates like ppl in lotro is doing right now. Why would i pay to wait for a uppdate? from release to now there hasent been much to do so basicly its wrong to take a monthly fee imo. Uppdates wused to be something extra, usaly fixes, not something req to keep playing the game. LA2 had a nice uppdate system with patches that makes lotro uppdates look like nothing. But most people dident finnish or grind everything out befor the uppdate was live, so it was basicly just a nice addition.
You are the one who said there is nothing for lvl 45+. I was just pointing out they are adding stuff for that range you and many others say are lacking. I never claimed that a person should play for updates. Yes in your opinion it is an imcomplete game. Yet on the other hand no MMO is ever finished until they close it down. So no MMO is ever complete.
You are the one claiming that subs will be down by 50% in a year. With in a year the first expansion will be out wich will bring in people as well as will the updats. You have no proof to support your claim of subs being down by 50% in a year. That is i say you have no proof or that your opinion is not fact.
All the updates have had bug fixes, They also add new quets for lvl ranges. Plus they expand the game.
If you can't understand why i replied then you need to re read carefully what i posted. You make a comment of fact based off of you opinion. If you would of said in my opinion i think subs will be down by 50% then that would of been differant. I was just pointing out that with all of the work that turbine is putting into the game that your opinion holds no water.
Chill out. It was not a personal attack on you. Yet i guess when someone disagrees with your opinion you can't understand why they would reply to it.
I predict WoW will be dead within the month.
Why? Well, a bunch of people I know have left the game. A whole guild! And, people I talk to say they know people who are leaving, too.
So obviously, if so many people are leaving, the game is on its way out.
Hey... I think a chunk of sky just landed outside my window.
</sarcasm>
Let me put this into another context:
People thought Saga of Ryzom would be dead a *long* time ago. I even thought it was an ill-fated game based on all the trouble surrounding it - bankruptcies, server merges, etc. Yet... it's still here.
Horizons has had enough lives to turn a cat green - by all rights, it could have died several times now. Yet, it's still going and, in fact, was recently bought out by a privately held company of former developers who are very aggressively working to bring the game back. Point is... most people (again, myself included) thought for sure the game was limping by on borrowed time. Guess what... It's still around.
For all intents and purposes, Shadowbane *was* dead. Guess what - it's still around. Why because there are people who saw it worthwhile to keep it going and, likewise, people who still really enjoy playing it.
None of these games have numbers approaching even LoTRO, nevermind WoW. But ask the people playing and enjoying those games if that matters in the least to them?
Point is... you can point to as many people you "know" or "talk to" in-game or elsewhere as you want. It doesn't mean anything. LoTRO's population is measured in the 10s of thousands... not in mere 10s or 100s. And just as people are leaving, new people are coming in.
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
i just joined the game is sick all thats need to be sad
LotRO is not the most innovative game, but it does bring some things to the table that can keep players interested for now and into the future. I would say it should have the lifespan of most other major MMOs, like EQ2, etc. as long as they continue to add to the game. Here are some of the reasons I think so:
1. The LotR theme. For fans of Middle Earth, this is a fun and immersive atmosphere and storyline.
2. A whole new game to play. Hundreds of quests to do and some new characters to play. While it doesn't have anything overly new to the gameplay, it is a NEW game. For people who have played WoW or other MMOs to death, this is just a fresh start in a new place.
3. PvMP. It's a fresh take on PvP that many people have been enjoying. It offers strategic PvP similar to the RvR action of DAoC, while allowing lower-level players to join the field as monsters.
There are other minor points that some people find enjoyable, but over all it's a pretty good experience for an MMO. It's fun, diverse, and new. Hopefully they can keep the game fresh and fun in the future. If they can, they'll keep players until something innovative and striking comes along.
Where do you feel LotRO will be in one year?
Doing just fine, and having an ASS TON of content at the rate they are going.
They seem to add one new feature, and at least two new full blown areas ever two months.
And there scripted encounters are REALLY fun, surprising, creative, and engaging.
----------
"Anyone posting on this forum is not an average user, and there for any opinions about the game are going to be overly critical compared to an average users opinions." - Me
"No, your wrong.." - Random user #123
"Hello person posting on a site specifically for MMO's in a thread on a sub forum specifically for a particular game talking about meta features and making comparisons to other titles in the genre, and their meta features.
How are you?" -Me
There's three basic schools of thought as I see it...
At the extreme ends you have:
- "It'll be dead in a year because it sucks and is just a WoW clone and does nothing new and Turbine sucks and they eat small kittens and sacrifice chickens" - Wishful thinking.
- "It'll be doing gang-busters, will have millions of players and will be the best MMO ever and everyone will know it" - Wishful thinking.
In the middle of the road you have:
- "It'll be doing well enough for Turbine to turn a profit and keep it going; certainly well enough for the players who enjoy it to continue enjoying it." - Most realistic/reasonable
I subscribe to the "middle of the road" mentality. I'm not fanatically for it, I'm not fanatically against it. I think it's a fun game. It doesn't break any hugely revolutionary ground, but it doesn't have to. It's a good game, in my opinion, and I plan to continue playing it until I decide otherwise, or they pull the plug - which ever comes first.
'course... if I come to the point where I have to choose one over another... Unfortunately LoTRO loses, as my first choice is and always will be FFXI.
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
Well this time next year with WAR, AoC, Aion, POTBS and the rest all most likely released (not darkfall of course), I think lotro will be all but forgotten with enough fans still playing for turbine to turn a profit but the outlook isn't so hot.
I say the middle of the road, it will dwindle in number of players over the year, but there will still be enough for Turbine to keep it running and maybe even make a little profit.
Myself, I turned my LOTRO account about 3 months ago. You can only kill so many spiders, boars and warthogs before you say, you know, this game is mind numbingly repetitive.
This was a very well put together game, one of the best launches I've ever seen but *YAWN* gets quite boring rather quickly. I'm also a huge LOTR and Tolkien fanboi but the game just wasn't enough to hold my interest. The lack of decent PvP and the go here and kill 10 mobs, or collect 30 boar snouts, etc. was just more of the same MMO mechanics that most every other game in the genre seems to be stuck in.
I see this point-of-view expressed quite often and, really, it's unfounded. There is no historical precedent that shows that the release of a new, shiny game has single-handedly killed another MMO. Those games will not drain LoTRO any more than any of the existing games have. Simply for the reason that not everyone is going to be interested in those games.
If any game should proves the fallacy of such a thing, it's WoW. Despite its millions of players, that it's the only MMO some people have ever played and, indeed, introduced them to the genre, there are people who have zero interest in WoW and/or remain happily in which ever MMO they were already playing. Some MMO's were hardly affected by its launch. I know FFXI's population hardly budged in response to WoW's release. Why? Because people simply aren't interested in WoW and are perfectly at home in FFXI. Same with DAoC. Same with Anarchy Online and many other games.
Will some people leave LoTRO for those games? Sure. Just as they'll leave WoW and other existing MMOs. But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO. Again, there is no historical precedent to prove otherwise. If there is, please provide it because I've seen none.
I'm almost tempted to put this mindset in the "wishful thinking" category.
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
I see this point-of-view expressed quite often and, really, it's unfounded. There is no historical precedent that shows that the release of a new, shiny game has single-handedly killed another MMO. Those games will not drain LoTRO any more than any of the existing games have. Simply for the reason that not everyone is going to be interested in those games.
If any game should proves the fallacy of such a thing, it's WoW. Despite its millions of players, that it's the only MMO some people have ever played and, indeed, introduced them to the genre, there are people who have zero interest in WoW and/or remain happily in which ever MMO they were already playing. Some MMO's were hardly affected by its launch. I know FFXI's population hardly budged in response to WoW's release. Why? Because people simply aren't interested in WoW and are perfectly at home in FFXI. Same with DAoC. Same with Anarchy Online and many other games.
Will some people leave LoTRO for those games? Sure. Just as they'll leave WoW and other existing MMOs. But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO. Again, there is no historical precedent to back this up.
I'm almost tempted to put this mindset in the "wishful thinking" category.
I do not believe the user has stated "Death" for LOTRO, but does say enough "Fans" playing which sounds reasonable to keep LOTRO afloat..
For a good article, read here
http://tobolds.blogspot.com/
Scroll down to "Defining Success"
Really, as long as Turbine keeps a 100k subs going for LOTRO, they really will have no issues keeping it up and running...now AC2 died due to falling at or below 35k...a break even number..and had no major pull for anyone (as it changed too many things for AC fans)
But, I think Turbine does not want to break even. LOTRO will live on license for sure..and will be profitable...
Overall the titles listed are all big games to watch, and will start separating the market...and I will be interested to see which game overall has the most pull (PvE or PvP...which one innovates...etc..)...WAR and AoC have major fans, and Aion should be interesting with it's PvPvE focus...
Cheers!
I see this point-of-view expressed quite often and, really, it's unfounded. There is no historical precedent that shows that the release of a new, shiny game has single-handedly killed another MMO. Those games will not drain LoTRO any more than any of the existing games have. Simply for the reason that not everyone is going to be interested in those games.
If any game should proves the fallacy of such a thing, it's WoW. Despite its millions of players, that it's the only MMO some people have ever played and, indeed, introduced them to the genre, there are people who have zero interest in WoW and/or remain happily in which ever MMO they were already playing. Some MMO's were hardly affected by its launch. I know FFXI's population hardly budged in response to WoW's release. Why? Because people simply aren't interested in WoW and are perfectly at home in FFXI. Same with DAoC. Same with Anarchy Online and many other games.
Will some people leave LoTRO for those games? Sure. Just as they'll leave WoW and other existing MMOs. But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO. Again, there is no historical precedent to back this up.
I'm almost tempted to put this mindset in the "wishful thinking" category.
I do not believe the user has stated "Death" for LOTRO, but does say enough "Fans" playing which sounds reasonable to keep LOTRO afloat..
For a good article, read here
http://tobolds.blogspot.com/
Scroll down to "Defining Success"
Really, as long as Turbine keeps a 100k subs going for LOTRO, they really will have no issues keeping it up and running...now AC2 died due to falling at or below 35k...a break even number..and had no major pull for anyone (as it changed too many things for AC fans)
But, I think Turbine does not want to break even. LOTRO will live on license for sure..and will be profitable...
Overall the titles listed are all big games to watch, and will start separating the market...and I will be interested to see which game overall has the most pull (PvE or PvP...which one innovates...etc..)...WAR and AoC have major fans, and Aion should be interesting with it's PvPvE focus...
Cheers!
Fair enough.. the word "death" wasn't used. It still implies a significant reduction to the game's population based on these new games coming out that, regardless, still has no historical precedent. No one will know the net effect until those games are out and have gone through that initial period of a bunch of people joining, and then cancelling after their free month is up. Even then, without actual verifiable numbers no one will know for sure.
As far as the "article" you pointed to... It's someone's personal blog entry from someone who likes to talk about various MMOs he's playing. It's not an article, as in "researched and written by someone who has received the information they're writing about directly from the source".
While I enjoy reading many blogs, I acknowledge them for what they are - people posting their points-of-view on a variety of topics, in a very editorial style.
While what he talks about is common-sense enough in general, that's where it ends. Anything more specific about that - as in LoTRO's specific situation - and it enters the realm of supposition. Do they have internal contacts in Turbine who feed them this information? How do they know what 100k subscribers would mean to Turbine? Do they have access to Turbine's accounting info? Do they know how Turbine has their money for LoTRO budgeted? Do they know what Turbine has defined as their "lowest acceptable" subscription numbers for the game to still be profitable, or merely break even for that matter? Does he know how much is spent on development and maintenance of the game, versus how much they're actually making on it, on a monthly basis? Absent any of that specific data, and his opinion is just as valid as anyone else's.
Not knocking the guy at all... But he's a guy with an opinion who has a blog. They're a dime a dozen.
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
I see this point-of-view expressed quite often and, really, it's unfounded. There is no historical precedent that shows that the release of a new, shiny game has single-handedly killed another MMO. Those games will not drain LoTRO any more than any of the existing games have. Simply for the reason that not everyone is going to be interested in those games.
If any game should proves the fallacy of such a thing, it's WoW. Despite its millions of players, that it's the only MMO some people have ever played and, indeed, introduced them to the genre, there are people who have zero interest in WoW and/or remain happily in which ever MMO they were already playing. Some MMO's were hardly affected by its launch. I know FFXI's population hardly budged in response to WoW's release. Why? Because people simply aren't interested in WoW and are perfectly at home in FFXI. Same with DAoC. Same with Anarchy Online and many other games.
Will some people leave LoTRO for those games? Sure. Just as they'll leave WoW and other existing MMOs. But it's not going to be this mass exodus that will result in the death of any one MMO. Again, there is no historical precedent to back this up.
I'm almost tempted to put this mindset in the "wishful thinking" category.
I do not believe the user has stated "Death" for LOTRO, but does say enough "Fans" playing which sounds reasonable to keep LOTRO afloat..
For a good article, read here
http://tobolds.blogspot.com/
Scroll down to "Defining Success"
Really, as long as Turbine keeps a 100k subs going for LOTRO, they really will have no issues keeping it up and running...now AC2 died due to falling at or below 35k...a break even number..and had no major pull for anyone (as it changed too many things for AC fans)
But, I think Turbine does not want to break even. LOTRO will live on license for sure..and will be profitable...
Overall the titles listed are all big games to watch, and will start separating the market...and I will be interested to see which game overall has the most pull (PvE or PvP...which one innovates...etc..)...WAR and AoC have major fans, and Aion should be interesting with it's PvPvE focus...
Cheers!
Fair enough.. the word "death" wasn't used. It still implies a significant reduction to the game's population based on these new games coming out that, regardless, still has no historical precedent. No one will know the net effect until those games are out and have gone through that initial period of a bunch of people joining, and then cancelling after their free month is up. Even then, without actual verifiable numbers no one will know for sure.
As far as the "article" you pointed to... It's someone's personal blog entry from someone who likes to talk about various MMOs he's playing. It's not an article, as in "researched and written by someone who has received the information they're writing about directly from the source".
While I enjoy reading many blogs, I acknowledge them for what they are - people posting their points-of-view on a variety of topics, in a very editorial style.
While what he talks about is common-sense enough in general, that's where it ends. Anything more specific about that - as in LoTRO's specific situation - and it enters the realm of supposition. Do they have internal contacts in Turbine who feed them this information? How do they know what 100k subscribers would mean to Turbine? Do they have access to Turbine's accounting info? Do they know how Turbine has their money for LoTRO budgeted? Do they know what Turbine has defined as their "lowest acceptable" subscription numbers for the game to still be profitable, or merely break even for that matter? Does he know how much is spent on development and maintenance of the game, versus how much they're actually making on it, on a monthly basis? Absent any of that specific data, and his opinion is just as valid as anyone else's.
Not knocking the guy at all... But he's a guy with an opinion who has a blog. They're a dime a dozen.
At least I know you did not read the article, as the blogger did post that it was an estimate of numbers based on criteria gathered from various sources...
He was trying to show how a game may survive depending on the subscriptions being rendered..The reason I pointed it out is how it related to this post. It is a good summation of how this may proceed when the newer titles come out next year...
He also never stated he had numbers from Turbine (as we cannot rely on them for information anyways...4 million and counting...kinda like the McDonalds of MMO's)...
I thought it was a good "THEORY" on numbers, and I never said it was in stone.....just wanted to share some insight is all...
O.K. since we are all doing the "crystal ball" thingy. Here is my prediction:
WAR, AoC, Aion, POTBS
Of those 4 listed above...
1 will fail miserably... akin to Dark-and-Light
1 will be rushed to market way before it's ready... akin to Vanguard
1 will immediately go to F2P status... akin to ArchLord
1 will be moderately successful... akin to LoTRO
As for LoTRO itself in a year? I think it'll have more subs than now. It'll have more content in 1 year, and a lot of people say they like the game, but just don't have enough to do to keep them playing... so, it makes sense that more content will equal more subs. Especially if I am right about the other games above.
Given the past 2-3 years in MMO releases, I find it very interesting that so many people are predicting rampant success with these new titles. You'd think that we would have learned by now. There will be many more failures than successes where MMOs are concerned. Just like with movies... there are many more box-office bombs than there are blockbusters. It's just the nature of the beast.
That's my prediction. Make of it what you will.
Game will still be around, but in the shadow of WAR and AoC. Something bigger is comming and you just can't ignore it.
Kinda like EQ2 and WoW.... EQ2 lives in the shadow of WoW.
eqnext.wikia.com
Well, write this down and keep somewhere safe... cause I'd bet all I have on it that it won't be so!
Not because of LOTRO, but because none of these games will even be remotely as big as the hype suggests
I will be _really_ surprised if any of them will ever hit 1 million subscribers! It doesn't matter how good they will be, but the mass market still only knows WOW, they are only starting to discover LOTRO (but many of them won't come over...). These 2 games (WAR and AOC) are only getting the hardcore MMO playerbase wet so far... the MMOG market is not at all as big as imagined 
kindof like the www bubble around 2000... it'll just pop.
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.