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Two Years From Now: Warhammer More US Subscriptions than WoW
donjn
Member UncommonPosts: 816
Here is my prediction two years from now, Summer of 2010...
World of Warcraft: 9 Million
7 Million Asia
1 Million USA
1 Million Europe
Warhammer: 4 Million
2 Million USA
1 Million Europe
1 Million Asia
Other Predictions..
Age of Conan
300k total
Darkfall (yes it will be released)
200k total
That's right, I believe that by two years Warhammer will more active US subscribers than WoW. The writing is on the wall. I have been following message boards for many months now, and currently Warhammer has a buzz that AoC and others never had. The US market is dying for something new
Of the current 10 million WoW has, 5.5 million of them are the Asian market. The remaining USA and Europe market will be pulled away. I listed some other "notables", so please dont ask why I didn't include "X" game. I think the MMO market is starving for something new so that's why I feel Darkfall at 200k will be somewhat of a success. I didnt list LOTRO or Vanguard because I think their numbers will stay the same.
The main point here is, I think if Warhammer turns out to be everything that is promised, the US market will jump on it.
Thoughts?
Comments
sure, i'll play...
World of Warcraft: 12 Million
8 Million Asia
2 Million USA
2 Million Europe
Warhammer: 4.5 Million
1 Million USA
1.5 Million Europe
2 Million Asia
Other Predictions..
Age of Conan
200k total
Darkfall (yes it will be released)
75k total
I actually think it will beat WOW in NA. Asia i don t think so as you said as well, but you never know.
So you think in two years WoW will gain 2 million users?
Can you explain why you think this? I have seen evidence of WoW slowdown. Maybe not a drop off but they definitely aren't gaining subscriptions, except in Asia of course lol.
I don't want to spread false information, but I'm certain I read that there would be local servers for Taiwan and Hong Kong (thus China) and this indicates (the bit I'm not sure about) there will be a Chinese language client.
If this is the case, I think your Asian subscriber predictions are too low.
3 mil users more actually. the expansion coming out is a big factor. in 2 years you're going to see maybe 1-2 more expansions.
also i really think people are underestimating WoW subscribers cancelling to move to WAR. i'm sure people will reply saying they will but i think (at least for 6 months or so) lots of WAR players will still keep their WoW active "just in case".
Your base WoW numbers are incorrect.
WoW has 2.5 million US subscribers and 2 million European and 5.5 million in Asia as of their last press release. That was prior to their announcement of 10.7 million subs so I would guess it is an even spread considering the game is still on the best seller charts.
I think even with Warhammer WoW overall will see an increase of subs if they launch in Russia this year or early next, but it will see a decline in Warhammer countries.
That being said I think you are right that the market is starved for a new game. Your numbers look right, but I don't think Warhammer will get 2 million U.S. seeing that the game is so PvP heavy, unless the US market doubles in size compared to todays total numbers. Personally, I've never been impressed with Mythics PvE designs so I don't know if they will have the staying power to attract and hold that crowd, but anything is possible I guess.
Then we are going to be sorely disappointed according to a lot of reports. I'm not saying WAR won't be a fun game. WoW is obviously a fun game. A little too generic, but obviously fun to millions of people. WAR has stated they are looking to copy WoW's hand holding and WoW's low computer requirements. Why would established WoW players quit their toons to start a very similar game? Maybe, just maybe WAR will be different enough from WoW to attract those of us who want a bit more depth in a game. I dunno, we shall see.
Because Warhammer is a family friendly, casual friendly game that will appeal to non-gamers therefore drawing all these people playing wow?
Sorry, but no.
And if you came up with these numbers, most likely you had to have a process other than throwing a dart at a board. So please let us know this process.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
If Warhammer has a good release, and that's still a big IF until we see it, I think it will do very well, and be very successful. By successful, I mean it will make a nice profit for the investors, and have plenty of money for server upkeep, and development of expansions, bug fixes, etc.
However, I just dont' think it's designed for broad appeal like WoW. Warhammer is designed around RvR play, and that's always going to be more of a niche than the WoW style level loot raid sort of game, IMO.
All that really matters is that WAR is successful, if you like that sort of gameplay. Then it will be another sucessful game, on top of DAoC, that uses the RvR model, and of course other developers will copy it, and we'll get more RvR style games. I like this sort of game, so I think that would be a good thing.
Okay first we are going to educate you a bit about the actual numbers.
World of Warcraft currently has 2, 5 million subscribers in the US, 2 million in Europe and 5,5 in Asia, not 7.
Saying Darkfall is going to get 200k subscribers already pretty much proves you don't really understand how the market works. Very low budget MMORPG's such as Darkfall have never been successful, and probably never will.
Following message boards has NEVER given any indication of how well a good game is and this is why your whole point is incorrect. If you were to look on message boards you'll notice that World of Warcraft is easily the most hated MMORPG, and guess what: It is also the most successful one, despite what forums say.
The cold hard fact of the matter is that the vast majority of gamers do not post on forums.
Warhammer also lacks the appeal Warcraft has. Warcraft is a widely respected gaming brand, while Warhammer is still trying to find its place in the gaming industry.
And the US market is dying for something new? Where on earth did you get that strange idea? It's the traditional MMORPG's that are doing really well, not the ones that try something new. Though that's probably a good thing for WAR since it's a pretty Generic MMORPG.
All these games together won't have half the amount of subs you write in 2010.
Peoples will be moving to new titles. I for 1 will never play a must-raid/PvP game, and I am not alone...many players have such a strong stance but only against 1 aspect...and many other things to consider. The point is, these titles rinse and repeat the same mistakes, over and over and over again, up to Ad Nauseum. The smallest injury if not treated could lead to severe consequences.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r23cm7bL9E
- "If I understand you well, you are telling me until next time. " - Ren
I see after the WOW expansion for it to be at 3 mill subs in the US and 2 mill in Europe and the rest Asia. I see Warhammer online being about 200-300k in the US and thats if the game tuns out to be good with no reach to Asia and about 200k again in Europe.
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Talking about SWG much?
But the problem is those investors.
Even if WAR makes a profit, the investors in all likelyhood will consider it a flop unless it is as successful as WoW is, without understanding why WoW's numbers are the way they are, without understanding the differences in the two games.
The investors want broad appeal, they're not happy with anyhing but a smashing success. This is the nature of contemporary American capitalism. Making a profit is not enough...the money flows to whatever is delivering the highest ROI, without regard to any other factor.
CH, Jedi, Commando, Smuggler, BH, Scout, Doctor, Chef, BE...yeah, lots of SWG time invested.
Once a denizen of Ahazi
If this is the case then War will bomb. Although overall you are correct, your ideology is flawed. The reason why War will be very successful is because it is so similar to Warhammer, as for achieving WoW's numbers? That remains to be seen. It's their right to do it seeing as it was their original concept, but the game is just a WoW clone and that ultimately will be why it succeeds.
Or we could not make up numbers. for all we know 2 years from now the entire MMO market could be dead with some newer type of game replacing it. or it could take off even more and WoW could have 50million users. its the future and we don't know.
Everything creates huge amounts of negativity on the internet, that's what the internet is for: Negativity, porn and lolcats.
Because Warhammer is a family friendly, casual friendly game that will appeal to non-gamers therefore drawing all these people playing wow?
Sorry, but no.
And if you came up with these numbers, most likely you had to have a process other than throwing a dart at a board. So please let us know this process.
It's called an opinion. Just because I use "numbers" does not make it any less subjective. It's no different than you saying "Sorry, but no". That is your opinion.
Let's see I miss placed my crystal ball somewhere....
Why is it that, as a culture, we are more comfortable seeing two men holding guns than holding hands? ~Ernest Gaines
haha he said darkfall
The following statement is false
The previous statement is true
The more content that is added the larger the struggle for new players to catch up. And if it is made easier for new players to catch up old players cry "slap in the face" whine or quit....
that's why it's a prediction...
Warhammer Online will have to be very lucky to get them subs though because I don't think it will gel with alot of people like Warcraft did, I'm sure there will be alot of first month sales because the attension mmorpgs get since wow but...... I say the normal 200-400k.
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Talking about SWG much?
I'm fairly certain anything that brings something new to the table is going to get some love. I hope Warhammer does well. If it does, then Blizz will have to step up and put out even better content. I hope WoW does get slapped around by competition, that way we will see something like the U.S. and Soviet race to the moon. The "moon" being some amazing video game holy grail that all of us have somehow overlooked all this time.
My theory which very well may be incorrect is that the majority of WoW players are waiting to jump ship. Wow is a solid MMO, but I think there aren't many people sticking around for reasons other than that all the gamer buddies they have play it and they already have so much time invested in it.
However hard the hammer falls (crappy pun intended), I'll be happy that someone is at least attempting to put up a fight. Most of the games coming out right now are like little pebbles being thrown at WoW. I think AoC was a step in the right direction, but long term, it won't have the power to stand against WoW and WAR.
Interesting post.
Later people! Maybe I'll say something again in another year or so...
Ha ha! I agree too, Darkfall... lol!
After throwing some darts, here are my guesses for summer 2010 in US subscribers only:
600,000 WoW,
300,000 Square Enix's next MMORPG - I'm guessing FFXIV,
100,000 WAR,
100,000 The Agency,
75,000 Aion,
75,000 Champions Online,
50,000 EVE,
50,000 LotRO,
50,000 AoC,
and 600,000 scattered among all the other MMORPGs.