With 120k subs and growing on the forums after beta announcement i think 100k subs at game release are a realistic number. Even if it gets only as far as 150k, that's enough for LotRO to keep running, release patches and expansions.
The game isn't trying to be a WoW killer, clutching people for their money as long as they can through endless grinding. They just present something that has been lacking for so long in MMOs - fun and player freedom to build, to destroy, to change, to be somebody, instead of playing a static grinder, being told by NPCs that you're a great hero like they've told 9 milion before you.
"The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands, To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming! On we sweep with threshing oar, our only goal will be the western shore."
If it has all of the features they calim , it will get 200k easy at launch. But I think some of the features will be missing, so I'll go with 100k at launch
that would make tasos aliar so no the features are in
Tasos has been lying about beta for the last 5 years. So what is your point?
hes been guessing never promising
No he has been lying. in August of 2003, he said beta will start next month. 5 years later, beta hasn't started. That is a lie. And a really huge lie at that
I'm excited for this game too, however, I remember Shadowbane and how much the Devs loved that game. It all comes down to money and appeal. The Devs don't have enough money to create a polished game, so it will not appeal to the majority used to WoW off the bat. It will also have limited appeal due to its open sandbox nature, which attracts the PvP ganker types. I'll be honest, the game impresses me a great deal, however, the community does not, since they are so hung up on PvP, even though the game isn't centered on PvP. Just because a game has open pvp, doesn't mean the game is a PvP game. It means the game is an actual world you can live in, where your actions have consequences and where you can build your own nation. Sure, there will be PvP involved with that and I cannot wait. But to think that everyone will be these anti-social PvP types, leaving the more mature types like me the minority is scary. I'd rather get together with a mature bunch of people, who want to explore the Darkfall world, build a city, and prosper. Those aren't the first words you hear from Darkfall fanbois. The first words you hear from them are "open pvp."
My guild is as hardcore as it comes. We dont plan on only be involved in open PvP. We will explore, build a city, and prosper. And on top of that we will be involved in open PvP.
The ones you call immature and only is going for open PvP will be a minority in Darkfall and they will not prosper.
If it has all of the features they calim , it will get 200k easy at launch. But I think some of the features will be missing, so I'll go with 100k at launch
that would make tasos aliar so no the features are in
Tasos has been lying about beta for the last 5 years. So what is your point?
I asked you before to give us some quotes where he is lying.
So far you havent delivered a single one.
Darkfall will on a descent publish have 250.000 subs within a couple of months. This will grow to +500K subs.
400 put in 2 different clans for 200 vs 200 battles and i am a happy man.
As for the company dunno what is for them required to be profitable, i don't think they need big numbers to survive. Taking the official forum numbers which are 120k+ then i think something about 100k customers will try at start and then depends on how playable the game is , the number will grow or sink.
-----MY-TERMS-OF-USE-------------------------------------------------- $OE - eternal enemy of online gaming -We finally WON !!!! 2011 $OE accepted that they have been fired 2005 by the playerbase and closed down ridiculous NGE !!
"There was suppression of speech and all kinds of things between disturbing and fascistic." Raph Koster (parted $OE)
I asked you before to give us some quotes where he is lying. So far you havent delivered a single one. Darkfall will on a descent publish have 250.000 subs within a couple of months. This will grow to +500K subs.
I gave you a ton of quotes. Then you aske me to link the quotes. So then I linked the quotes. You have a really short memeory.
I asked you before to give us some quotes where he is lying. So far you havent delivered a single one. Darkfall will on a descent publish have 250.000 subs within a couple of months. This will grow to +500K subs.
I gave you a ton of quotes. Then you aske me to link the quotes. So then I linked the quotes. You have a really short memeory.
in this thread? i don't see them. you have a difficulty in linking quotes and telling truths.
Darkfall is niche, so it won't draw in enough people to get a lot of good word out, even if it is successful.
Darkfall has already done a good job of getting the word out. I doubt that there are many current MMO players that don't know about it. It's actually been a tool that has been used in MMO forums everywhere to compare and contrast different development philosophies. I know that I first heard about Darkfall on the DDO forums, went and investigated it last year, and have since written about it at least a dozen times across a variety of forums.
I wouldn't call Darkfall niche, either. Games with only limited PvE or stadium-like PvP are "niche." Darkfall has the potential to appeal to a very wide audience. That is actually a problem for me, as appealing to a wide audience has gotten many a decent MMO into trouble down the road. As far as past comparisons, Darkfall could be as good as Ultima Online or the original Star Wars Galaxies (I've heard good things about both), or it could have gameplay problems like Shadowbane, Age of Conan, et al. Nobody really knows yet, not even the developers.
I fully expect Darkfall to do as well as Age of Conan during it's initial launch. Age of Conan sold 800,000 copies of the game (even though many people who bought it probably couldn't actually play it). If the game functionality is there, I also expect Darkfall to actually increase subscriber numbers from that initial launch.
Everyone doesn't know about Darkfall. There are MMORPG players that stick with one game and don't read forums, including their own games forums. My brother and his dad are a prime example. I had to tell them about AoC and WAR. Two games that were common knowledge with MMORPG players. If those two didn't know about it, and the only game they played was WoW, because they like Blizzard, how many millions of other players do you think are like that. I can at least admit it is possible and even probable.
MMORPG's w/ Max level characters: DAoC, SWG, & WoW
Currently Playing: WAR Preferred Playstyle: Roleplay/adventurous, in a sandbox game.
it is definitely a niche game....though if it releases well and reviews come in good...expect to see a big increase in numbers after launch. it promises so much....too much in the eyes of many, too good to be true. but if it actually delivers...then people (even the normally non pvp crowd) will be looking into it. DF doesnt need much to be a huge success....I would expect about 2x or 3x what eve has since the fantasy genre is more popular (if it releases well)
Eve has 250k paying subs, gl getting 2-3x that
AoC managed 800k of the 1 million shipped units registered in the first 3 months, WAR shipped 1.5 million and has 500k keys registered as of 2 weeks, these are mainstream games with big publishers and marketing campaigns.
DFO will be niche, which isnt a bad thing, if it had 100k paying subs after the free trial im sure the devs would consider it a good building point.
The game looks amazing and hopefully will reach its potential, but FFA pvp games are rarely mainstream, DFO appeals to a sub group of mmo fans, and its subs will reflect that.
Darkfall is niche, so it won't draw in enough people to get a lot of good word out, even if it is successful.
Darkfall has already done a good job of getting the word out. I doubt that there are many current MMO players that don't know about it. It's actually been a tool that has been used in MMO forums everywhere to compare and contrast different development philosophies. I know that I first heard about Darkfall on the DDO forums, went and investigated it last year, and have since written about it at least a dozen times across a variety of forums.
I wouldn't call Darkfall niche, either. Games with only limited PvE or stadium-like PvP are "niche." Darkfall has the potential to appeal to a very wide audience. That is actually a problem for me, as appealing to a wide audience has gotten many a decent MMO into trouble down the road. As far as past comparisons, Darkfall could be as good as Ultima Online or the original Star Wars Galaxies (I've heard good things about both), or it could have gameplay problems like Shadowbane, Age of Conan, et al. Nobody really knows yet, not even the developers.
I fully expect Darkfall to do as well as Age of Conan during it's initial launch. Age of Conan sold 800,000 copies of the game (even though many people who bought it probably couldn't actually play it). If the game functionality is there, I also expect Darkfall to actually increase subscriber numbers from that initial launch.
HAHA what? You think Darkfall will have 800k sales at launch? And that everyone playing an MMO knows about it? I'd bet if you went into any WoW city on and WoW server and asked what people thought about Darkfall, most would say "Darkwhat?"
I agree Raith. But thats probably because 95% of the WOW players think WOW is the only MMO!
Core i5 13600KF, BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard
I gave you a ton of quotes. Then you aske me to link the quotes. So then I linked the quotes. You have a really short memeory.
in this thread? i don't see them. you have a difficulty in linking quotes and telling truths.
I didn't say it was in this thread. Learn to read. You are making a fool out of yourself
That's not really lying Ghoul31 because he probably believed the beta was close when he stated that.
Lying is saying something you know not to be true.
Your incorrect accusation would make every game developer a lier.
Before you throw lying accusations around you should have some proof, you haven't provided any and won't be able. All you can prove is over optimism so how about not using such imflammitory language?
That's not really lying Ghoul31 because he probably believed the beta was close when he stated that. Lying is saying something you know not to be true. Your incorrect accusation would make every game developer a lier. Before you throw lying accusations around you should have some proof, you haven't provided any and won't be able. All you can prove is over optimism so how about not using such imflammitory language?
When you say beta will begin in a month. And five years later, beta still hasn't begun, thats a lie. You can call it whatever you want though.
You can call it what you want but the vast majority of the English speaking world won't agree with you and don't expect people here to. Show proof or shut up imo. Lie: a false statement made with deliberate intent to deceive; an intentional untruth; a falsehood. Show evidence of deliberate intent to deceive or don't make such accusations.
If he said something would start in a month, and 5 years later it hasn't started, then he had to know 5 years ago that the game was a long way from being ready for beta. So it was lie. Now quit being so ignorant.
This is actually a good point that needs to be considered. I, as well, happen to be the only one of the 5 people I know that are subscribed to darkfall forums. They are just as excited about it as I am and will be buying and playing from day one.
Realisticaly talking, even the developers themselves don't expect to attract a very big crowd with their game. When you're reading them writing about having one server, with 10.000 max concurrent population, my guess they are expecting a number of 100.000 people, maybe? I'm not sure I remember the typical ratio of concurrent to sum subscriptions. But when they say that they will start with one server, and see what comes, it means they are very realistic about this.
Myself, I don't expect many more than 100.000 subscriptions. I certainly aint too fond of the 200.000 predictions. Even if it has all the features, it will take a while for word of mouth to really spread around. And the comparisons to Eve, are a bit nonsense. We're talking about a Space opera MMO compared to a high fantasy one. The number of Sci-Fi MMO is very small, and people are getting tired of fantasy.
Realisticaly talking, even the developers themselves don't expect to attract a very big crowd with their game. When you're reading them writing about having one server, with 10.000 max concurrent population, my guess they are expecting a number of 100.000 people, maybe? I'm not sure I remember the typical ratio of concurrent to sum subscriptions. But when they say that they will start with one server, and see what comes, it means they are very realistic about this. Myself, I don't expect many more than 100.000 subscriptions. I certainly aint too fond of the 200.000 predictions. Even if it has all the features, it will take a while for word of mouth to really spread around. And the comparisons to Eve, are a bit nonsense. We're talking about a Space opera MMO compared to a high fantasy one. The number of Sci-Fi MMO is very small, and people are getting tired of fantasy.
There's around 130k registerd Members on the Official DarkFall forums a large number of those comming after the Video and Beta announcement and more signing up every day. Once the game itself launches you can almost bet on all of those becoming subscribers. Considering the majority of MMORPG players don't sign up for forums unless forced to they tend to not represent the full subscriber base. I am estimating around 250k within the first 6 months.
Comments
With 120k subs and growing on the forums after beta announcement i think 100k subs at game release are a realistic number. Even if it gets only as far as 150k, that's enough for LotRO to keep running, release patches and expansions.
The game isn't trying to be a WoW killer, clutching people for their money as long as they can through endless grinding. They just present something that has been lacking for so long in MMOs - fun and player freedom to build, to destroy, to change, to be somebody, instead of playing a static grinder, being told by NPCs that you're a great hero like they've told 9 milion before you.
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
On we sweep with threshing oar, our only goal will be the western shore."
that would make tasos aliar so no the features are in
Tasos has been lying about beta for the last 5 years. So what is your point?
hes been guessing never promising
No he has been lying. in August of 2003, he said beta will start next month. 5 years later, beta hasn't started. That is a lie. And a really huge lie at that
My guild is as hardcore as it comes. We dont plan on only be involved in open PvP. We will explore, build a city, and prosper. And on top of that we will be involved in open PvP.
The ones you call immature and only is going for open PvP will be a minority in Darkfall and they will not prosper.
that would make tasos aliar so no the features are in
Tasos has been lying about beta for the last 5 years. So what is your point?
I asked you before to give us some quotes where he is lying.
So far you havent delivered a single one.
Darkfall will on a descent publish have 250.000 subs within a couple of months. This will grow to +500K subs.
This is not year 2000.............niche game is based now on tens of million more potential online players, which 10 years ago weren t there.
250K-500K is a believable number providing that DF turn out to be what it claims, and it s not going to be another Dark n Light...........
400 put in 2 different clans for 200 vs 200 battles and i am a happy man.
As for the company dunno what is for them required to be profitable, i don't think they need big numbers to survive. Taking the official forum numbers which are 120k+ then i think something about 100k customers will try at start and then depends on how playable the game is , the number will grow or sink.
-----MY-TERMS-OF-USE--------------------------------------------------
$OE - eternal enemy of online gaming
-We finally WON !!!! 2011 $OE accepted that they have been fired 2005 by the playerbase and closed down ridiculous NGE !!
"There was suppression of speech and all kinds of things between disturbing and fascistic." Raph Koster (parted $OE)
I gave you a ton of quotes. Then you aske me to link the quotes. So then I linked the quotes. You have a really short memeory.
I gave you a ton of quotes. Then you aske me to link the quotes. So then I linked the quotes. You have a really short memeory.
in this thread? i don't see them. you have a difficulty in linking quotes and telling truths.
Darkfall has already done a good job of getting the word out. I doubt that there are many current MMO players that don't know about it. It's actually been a tool that has been used in MMO forums everywhere to compare and contrast different development philosophies. I know that I first heard about Darkfall on the DDO forums, went and investigated it last year, and have since written about it at least a dozen times across a variety of forums.
I wouldn't call Darkfall niche, either. Games with only limited PvE or stadium-like PvP are "niche." Darkfall has the potential to appeal to a very wide audience. That is actually a problem for me, as appealing to a wide audience has gotten many a decent MMO into trouble down the road. As far as past comparisons, Darkfall could be as good as Ultima Online or the original Star Wars Galaxies (I've heard good things about both), or it could have gameplay problems like Shadowbane, Age of Conan, et al. Nobody really knows yet, not even the developers.
I fully expect Darkfall to do as well as Age of Conan during it's initial launch. Age of Conan sold 800,000 copies of the game (even though many people who bought it probably couldn't actually play it). If the game functionality is there, I also expect Darkfall to actually increase subscriber numbers from that initial launch.
Everyone doesn't know about Darkfall. There are MMORPG players that stick with one game and don't read forums, including their own games forums. My brother and his dad are a prime example. I had to tell them about AoC and WAR. Two games that were common knowledge with MMORPG players. If those two didn't know about it, and the only game they played was WoW, because they like Blizzard, how many millions of other players do you think are like that. I can at least admit it is possible and even probable.
MMORPG's w/ Max level characters: DAoC, SWG, & WoW
Currently Playing: WAR
Preferred Playstyle: Roleplay/adventurous, in a sandbox game.
Eve has 250k paying subs, gl getting 2-3x that
AoC managed 800k of the 1 million shipped units registered in the first 3 months, WAR shipped 1.5 million and has 500k keys registered as of 2 weeks, these are mainstream games with big publishers and marketing campaigns.
DFO will be niche, which isnt a bad thing, if it had 100k paying subs after the free trial im sure the devs would consider it a good building point.
The game looks amazing and hopefully will reach its potential, but FFA pvp games are rarely mainstream, DFO appeals to a sub group of mmo fans, and its subs will reflect that.
Darkfall has already done a good job of getting the word out. I doubt that there are many current MMO players that don't know about it. It's actually been a tool that has been used in MMO forums everywhere to compare and contrast different development philosophies. I know that I first heard about Darkfall on the DDO forums, went and investigated it last year, and have since written about it at least a dozen times across a variety of forums.
I wouldn't call Darkfall niche, either. Games with only limited PvE or stadium-like PvP are "niche." Darkfall has the potential to appeal to a very wide audience. That is actually a problem for me, as appealing to a wide audience has gotten many a decent MMO into trouble down the road. As far as past comparisons, Darkfall could be as good as Ultima Online or the original Star Wars Galaxies (I've heard good things about both), or it could have gameplay problems like Shadowbane, Age of Conan, et al. Nobody really knows yet, not even the developers.
I fully expect Darkfall to do as well as Age of Conan during it's initial launch. Age of Conan sold 800,000 copies of the game (even though many people who bought it probably couldn't actually play it). If the game functionality is there, I also expect Darkfall to actually increase subscriber numbers from that initial launch.
HAHA what? You think Darkfall will have 800k sales at launch? And that everyone playing an MMO knows about it? I'd bet if you went into any WoW city on and WoW server and asked what people thought about Darkfall, most would say "Darkwhat?"
I agree Raith. But thats probably because 95% of the WOW players think WOW is the only MMO!
Core i5 13600KF, BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard
in this thread? i don't see them. you have a difficulty in linking quotes and telling truths.
I didn't say it was in this thread. Learn to read. You are making a fool out of yourself
in this thread? i don't see them. you have a difficulty in linking quotes and telling truths.
I didn't say it was in this thread. Learn to read. You are making a fool out of yourself
That's not really lying Ghoul31 because he probably believed the beta was close when he stated that.
Lying is saying something you know not to be true.
Your incorrect accusation would make every game developer a lier.
Before you throw lying accusations around you should have some proof, you haven't provided any and won't be able. All you can prove is over optimism so how about not using such imflammitory language?
130k on forums now, well lets say 80k is actively following DF - and these are the rabid fans. Average rabid fan will get a friend to join.
I predict 150-200k first couple of month, and if the game delivers it will be 400k+ within 1 year.
Khael[SUN]
SUN - peekayin since pong
Webdeveloper on:
http://www.guildofsun.com
http://www.bloodmonarchy.com
When you say beta will begin in a month. And five years later, beta still hasn't begun, thats a lie. You can call it whatever you want though.
You can call it what you want but the vast majority of the English speaking world won't agree with you and don't expect people here to.
Show proof or shut up imo.
Lie: a false statement made with deliberate intent to deceive; an intentional untruth; a falsehood.
Show evidence of deliberate intent to deceive or don't make such accusations.
If he said something would start in a month, and 5 years later it hasn't started, then he had to know 5 years ago that the game was a long way from being ready for beta. So it was lie. Now quit being so ignorant.
This is actually a good point that needs to be considered. I, as well, happen to be the only one of the 5 people I know that are subscribed to darkfall forums. They are just as excited about it as I am and will be buying and playing from day one.
I predict DF will have 26 million subscribers. In the first month, will rise from that ofc.
Realisticaly talking, even the developers themselves don't expect to attract a very big crowd with their game. When you're reading them writing about having one server, with 10.000 max concurrent population, my guess they are expecting a number of 100.000 people, maybe? I'm not sure I remember the typical ratio of concurrent to sum subscriptions. But when they say that they will start with one server, and see what comes, it means they are very realistic about this.
Myself, I don't expect many more than 100.000 subscriptions. I certainly aint too fond of the 200.000 predictions. Even if it has all the features, it will take a while for word of mouth to really spread around. And the comparisons to Eve, are a bit nonsense. We're talking about a Space opera MMO compared to a high fantasy one. The number of Sci-Fi MMO is very small, and people are getting tired of fantasy.
There's around 130k registerd Members on the Official DarkFall forums a large number of those comming after the Video and Beta announcement and more signing up every day. Once the game itself launches you can almost bet on all of those becoming subscribers. Considering the majority of MMORPG players don't sign up for forums unless forced to they tend to not represent the full subscriber base. I am estimating around 250k within the first 6 months.