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A realistic prediction for the outcome of Darkfall
northranger1
Member Posts: 60
Its easy to look on these forum's and be swayed one way or another towards Darkfall. I think the best way to predict if its going to be a success or a failure, is to take a step back from all the hype, and look at the games position / its potential / why it may fail, and try and hazard a guess at how its going to perform.
Without wanting to be accused of either hyping or dishing Darkfall, i'll briefly sum up my thoughts at both ends of the spectrum.
If Darkfall is to do really well, it will do so because it offer's the player something different , and it pulls off what its trying to achieve, with some fine polish. I believe what it has going for it on paper is, the freedom, the combat and the immersive world, and the vast array of features it offer's the player. Of course all of this could turn out to be a load of rubble, but to be optimistic at this point in time, there are a good number of beta reports that indicate a very high quality game, which has been compared in many area's to an online Oblivion, aside from the obvious difference's. On this basis I am willing to give Darkfall a try at launch, and if it turns out to be a stinker, I'll just move on to something else, and pay my respects to the developers for at least trying.
If Darkfall is going to flop, it will flop because it will be, badly unstable / buggy at launch, the combat won't be up to scratch, the world will be unbalanced, the full loot system won't work, and it potentially it could be an unbearable gank fest. From what the developer's say though, they have taken all these things very seriously and carefully designed the game to prevent them. Can the developers be relied on? probably not, but I will reserve my judgement until I actually play it.
The other thing that may be detrimental to its launch, is the apparent lack of any high street DVD distribution or game shop publicity. 18GB is a lot to download for people and though I can only speculate, I suspect that a good number of people still don't have the super fast connections to easily download such a big quantity of data. If the game does turn out to be brilliant, then this factor won't stop it being a success in the long run, but it won't help the subs at the start.
Aside from the above, another possibility other then out right success or failure, is that the game could fall somewhere in between. It may not be the great game it wanted to be, but it could turn out to be a stable solid average game, that doesn't live up to the hype, yet is still playable and generates a steady subscriber base.
There are some people who have made ridiculous predictions like Darkfall will be the One to tople WOW. I can say for sure this will not happen, its not even out to compete with WOW, and its not going to appeal to a big majority of the quest / raid friendly pve crowd, because in its nature its a pvp game. On the other hand, it may not be the ultra hardcore unapproachable gank fest its been made out to be. Again according to info the player is strong from the off, its not about epic gear, and the world is big a strategic enough to prevent this. If the game turns out to be very user friendly, and can be enjoyed by the more casual player then it could attract many people from the quest / raid based games like Wow, despite its full looting nature. The key here is, easy to play, hard to master.
More realistically though Darkfall could, possibly compete on a subscriber level with AOC or WAR. It hasn't had the massive development budgets, or advertising budgets, that these two games have enjoyed, so it certainly won't have their subscriber numbers at launch, but if its as good as they say it will be this won't matter as it will steadily gain more publicity for being a high quality game, magazines / reviewers will take note, and people will come in bigger numbers.
I can think to compare this to the launch of the 3 big consoles, the Xbox 360, Playstation 3, and the Nintendo WII. The WII was the underdog, lowest spec and lowest in its budget, yet it offered something different and when it arrived, it did what it set out to do with great polish, so has become the biggest success story of the three. Obviously Nintendo were already established unlike Darkfall, and comparing this analogy is silly, but the idea is there all the same.
Looking quickly at the December website traffic for Darkfall it was nearly 30,000k in, which is in the same regions as AOC / WAR. The hype is also there on sites mmorpg.com and many similar sites, but it doesn't have the magazine or media hype that other big titles recieve.
So to finish off, my prediction is that Darkfall will fall in to one of three catogory's after release:
1) A Fantastic Game / Large subcriber base,
2) A Good / Average Game / Medium Subscriber base
3) Poor Game / Low subscriber base and eventual closure.
Optimistically I am hoping for number 1), but realistically I believe it could be number 2). The worsed case scenario will be number 3).
Well thanks for reading my thoughts on the madness that surrounds Darkfall. At least we only have less then a fortnight for the story to begin to unravel, if it launches.
Comments
Based on the last bit of info from that coffe cup thing whatever it was -- it does not look like this game is anywhere near ready for a launch.
It literally looks like the guy was fishing around for investment money for a supposed feature complete game that is launching in 13 days.
He even says that they have no marketing budget.
What kind of a company builds a product and has no marketing budget included?
And if they have no marketing budget then do they even have a customer support budget?
{ Mod Edit }
Good read. I hope this game does well.
Number 1 hopefull
Dont play games if you dont have 18Gs to spare imo
http://acominos.evony.com <- if your bored at work
From all that I have read of the developers aims, they have been shooting for a combination of your #s 1 and 2: A fantastic game with a medium number of subscribers, on level with EVE. The publicity they have recieved was entirely out of the scope of what they were expecting and it surprised them to see so many people following their game.
As to the guy above who was concerned with the lack of marketing, they have always focused entierly on the game before. Since they did no marketing, they did not have a place for it in their budget. Of course they are looking for funding to get certain auxilary departments up and running for launch.
I am a skeptical supporter of DF. I am not a fanboi nor a troll. I seek the truth in every discussion, and I am truly sorry if I mistakenly state a fallacy.
Not sure what you mean by the coffe cup thing, do you have a link. I've read several positive reports, the best being the noob comic, but yes there are many negative beta reports. Quite a few of these beta reports have been reported as false. I take you point on the budget, but its another we'll have to wait and see.
I agree, it can be fantastic, good or poor. Yes.
Like the stock market, it can go up, down or be stable.
Good prediction
Good post. It is very refreshing to read an inteligent post on these forums! I agree with what you wrote for the most part.
Wouldn't you be if you had a game launching in 13 days and needed to buy servers to handle a massive surge of 300,000+ people? Servers cost money, and especially if there is a free trial, subscriptions won't bring in money until *after* they go way in the hole to buy servers. An extra million or so from an investor would cover that cost and let them release with 20 server clusters instead of only one or a few.
I would say that this a very well thought out assesment of the situation. Obviously all games will fit into one of the catagories that you mention but I think that your reasoning for it is sound.
I'm praying for that combination as well because I highly doubt their servers have the capability of supporting a very large population at launch.
His delima was more with the amount of time that it would take to download such a huge game...to say nothing of the fact that any servers that they have to download the thing from will be completely clogged for several weeks following release.
I myself can't wait for Darkfall to be released, not because I want to play it, but because it'll give something for all of those "OMG Ultima was the best mMO ever please bring back full item looting and non carebear pvp !!!" to play...and if they're playing this, maybe they'll post less in the other MMO forums...One can hope.
Of course...they already have Eve, apparently that's not enough for them...actually what Eve shows me is that nobody REALLY wants "non carebear" pvp...they simply want pvp that can allow them to ruin the enjoyment of others, while putting minimal risk on themselves...this is not wholly strange, and is pretty much completely within what I am often reminded is human nature...I simply wish that people weren't so hypocritical and sneaky about what they really want.
give the gankers their game...in time, the gankers will become the ganked, and they will quit, then the gankers who ganked the gankers will get ganked, and they wil quit, and the cycle will continue until all you have left is an empty server.
Your argument is like a two legged dog with an eating disorder...weak and unbalanced.
my predictions
option A: tasos is telling the truth
therefore the servers can really support 10000 players and has all the promised content. then the game will start out with a lowish population but will graduly grow and become a success story. Even in this ideal scenario I think the game will still be buggy but will be slowly fixed and ignored because of the gameplay offered. darkfall will keep subs and grow, unlike WAR and AoC which had good initial sales only. the game will never challenge any of the top MMO's but will be profitable and remembered as a good game. It will promote alternative gameplay for future MMOs.
option B: tasos is telling porkies
therefore when everyone trys to log on the game crashes. the servers fail at supporting so many players much like WAR but MUCH worse, its a lag fest most people unable to play the game. people logging on from far away, US AUS and people with slow internet connections crash servers. plus alot of promised content is cut out. the game goes down in history as the biggest epic fail launch, tasos becomes one of the most hated mmorpg names in history like a million times worse than erling, smedly, etc.
My blog:
I have 4 major concerns with Darkfall:
1. 18.4 gig download is too big.....that is too much coontent and will have alot of bugs as a result.....Also how can a couple hundred testers test that much??
2. FFA PVP.....Some people really love it, alot of us are wary of it......Usuallt this format ends up with alot of ganking and alot of hatred and fear among the players......Maybe they will have alternative ruleset servers??.....I have no interest in FFA PVP because I know I cannot compete....I am definitely a sheep amopng wolves in that setting.
3. The community.....If the posts here are any indication of what the community will be like in game then it will probably scare off alot of people.....The game seems too hardocre and too in your face for most people.....It reminds me alot of when I tried UO.......No one was friendly and everyone jsut wanted to kill you.....
4. The hype....Just like AoC and WAR the fanbois are a little too rabid for my tastes.......Ive seen hundreds of posts saying this game is the greatest ever and I seriously doubt any of these people have played 2 seconds........
Wow man, that's one hell of a prediction. You just pretty much covered every possible outcome for the game.
Option C: what Tasos is telling doesn't change a thing
Therefore when the game launches people start playing it, discover that promising complete freedom to everyone as in that promotional video means you can enslave the next guy, who also watched the video and suddenly realizes that not everyone can be completely free simultaneously. The smoothest launch and the most complete set of fulfilled promises in the history of gaming wouldn't change the harsh reality that slaves won't continue paying a monthly subscription for that privilege, and that since the winners and losers can almost be determined from day one, many losers just won't show up or will leave quickly. This the hardcore will consider to be a feather in their cap, then they will get bored and move on to another game for lack of victims. The real problem isn't how much Tasos is telling the truth, or how close the game will be to what he promises, but that such a game as envisioned by Aventurine in the first place simply cannot work.
I completely agree with you. Your are really objective and everyone enjoys reading this kind of posts.
Keep it up mate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonia_(Greece)
Option C: what Tasos is telling doesn't change a thing
Therefore when the game launches people start playing it, discover that promising complete freedom to everyone as in that promotional video means you can enslave the next guy, who also watched the video and suddenly realizes that not everyone can be completely free simultaneously. The smoothest launch and the most complete set of fulfilled promises in the history of gaming wouldn't change the harsh reality that slaves won't continue paying a monthly subscription for that privilege, and that since the winners and losers can almost be determined from day one, many losers just won't show up or will leave quickly. This the hardcore will consider to be a feather in their cap, then they will get bored and move on to another game for lack of victims. The real problem isn't how much Tasos is telling the truth, or how close the game will be to what he promises, but that such a game as envisioned by Aventurine in the first place simply cannot work.
Option
Option A thru C is speculative, and we'll know more on the 22nd.
Wouldn't you be if you had a game launching in 13 days and needed to buy servers to handle a massive surge of 300,000+ people? Servers cost money, and especially if there is a free trial, subscriptions won't bring in money until *after* they go way in the hole to buy servers. An extra million or so from an investor would cover that cost and let them release with 20 server clusters instead of only one or a few.
Umm... how much do you think those 80 servers with 8 cpu's each cost?
That is what they need for each "world"
From what I've seen those type of servers are going to run you around 10k each. So, each million will roughly allow them to open up 1 more cluster.
Each world handles approx. 10k simultaneous users (according to the Devs. claims)... but the number of users created on it is quite a bit higher. A conservative guess is 30-40k... some may even say to go as high as 60-80k.
I will be really surprised if DarkFall launches with more than 1 server. Guess we will find out on the 22nd.
Wouldn't you be if you had a game launching in 13 days and needed to buy servers to handle a massive surge of 300,000+ people? Servers cost money, and especially if there is a free trial, subscriptions won't bring in money until *after* they go way in the hole to buy servers. An extra million or so from an investor would cover that cost and let them release with 20 server clusters instead of only one or a few.
If I had a game launching in 13 days, I'd have worked out server load balancing during the stress test beta I would have had six months ago, had marketing giving me bi-weekly reports on estimate launch levels, bought the servers at the time of my open beta two months ago (even if only 1 or 2 were online during the beta), and have 2-3 "extra" servers offline, but ready to be opened if the game is a smash hit (and code in place for server merges EARLY if it is not, to prevent 'empty server syndrome' from killing the game at birth).
Anyone who would suggest that 13 days prior to launch is when you should be trying to find funding to buy servers probably shouldn't be spending time playing computer games; they need to spend a LOT more time in the real world. Look both ways before crossing the street.
You don't "go in the hole" to buy servers. They're part of the initial cost of launch, figured into the budget from the get-go, constantly updated and adjusted as hardware specs and hardware costs change over the development lifecycle. This isn't some guy who wrote a cool game, put it on his web page, and is suddenly drowning in hits he didn't expect. This is, supposedly, a professional company which is expected to take these things into account.
18 gigs inst that much more than the average MMO out now. WAR is over 15 gigs. I don't know any other MMOs hardware take up off hand but if the game is as big as it claims 18 gigs isn't hard to imagine.
Sent me an email if you want me to mail you some pizza rolls.
i predict a mediocre launch, and a slow build up of subscribers up to current Conan and Vanguard levels...nothing more.
Yeah, but WAR didn't force you to download it -- you could just grab a copy at the nearest game store and just have to deal with the patches.
Downloading 18 GB would be a major undertaking for me, especially for a game about which practically nothing is known, including system requirements.
The main difference is that those other games didn't have their entire fan-base downloading the entire 18GB on or shortly before Release.
Most of us know how much of pain it is just doing the normal patching, name registration and so on that comes with a Launch Day. Add in the downloading as well... I guess it easy to see how the torrent downloading got suggested.
I don't recall seeing anything of that mentioned in the actual transcript from the video of the event though. Perhaps it will be in Tasos' update coming soon.
Vanguard SoH Patched is 19GB I believe
AoC was 32GB Iirc
Yes, but the question is...
Did you download that on or close to Release Day along with everyone else that played on Launch Day?
If this game launches on the 22'nd it's going to be a complete circus that will measure up nicely to Dark and Light.