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AOC has 100-150 K subs
Frobner
Member Posts: 649
Thats my outcome after comparing few diffrent factors of known stats. Warhammer just realeased their sub number of 300 k wich is in fact the highest known dropout of subs from a MMO game every (over 60%) in 2 months.
My calculations are not higly sientific but I consider this number to be realistic. Only way we know for sure is if Funcom released real numbers. EA had the guts to do so even tho the stats didn't favor them. We can be pretty sure that Funcom numbers are not to pretty to look at cause belive me.. then they would be the first to splash them all over the frontpage - just like they did with their "fastest selling MMO game ever !"
Comments
Frobner, You are really asking to be flamed. I'm all for AoC as its my current MMO of choice, but to suggest you have came to this outcome after "comparing few diffrent factors of known stats" is a joke. Most of us are highly educated. If you want to make a statement like this please include the calculations and the sources for the numbers you are using.
And please proofread your post if you are trying to suggest a fact that some people may argue you on. Such as misspelling the words 'different' in your sentence when talking about the stats, and then misspelling 'scientific' when suggesting that your methods may not be highly scientific just makes people doubly doubt any validity to your statement.
While i think AoC has about 100-150k subs, i can say so as my opinion, but if you suggest you came to this relevation using a "few diffrent factors of known stats", then you have to back up what you say with testable results and data.
If you are really out to just troll, at least take the time to learn, there are some really ingenious trolls here on MMORPG. Ones that while they troll, are clever enough to get a chuckle out of most of the posters.
Would like to see facts instead of speculation and shouldnt say any number at all if you cant backed it up, makes you sound a little trollish. Funcom might release as EA did you should wait and see.
Smarter than the average bear? That is assuming bears are smart.
If AOC was doing as good as some of you would want everyone to think, FC WOULD release sub numbers. Everyone knows the reason MMO companies dont release these numbers. They didnt hesitate to say they had 400k, but knew subs would drop and stated they would not be releasing numbers anymore, wonder why.
If they were doing so well, we all know the sub numbers would be plastered on the forums every month.
I would like to nominate this post for the "Best post of the year" award. (sarcasm off)
Funcom said pre launch they would see it as they had failed to meet the expectations if they got 100k susbcribers so I doubt they would be eager to claim these numbers as good numbers.
People seems obsessed with subscription numbers when it comes to MMO's these days, subscription numbers alone don't tell us if a game is good or bad.
Playing: Battlefield - Bad company (Xbox360) Arma2, DFO (PC)
On my radar: TSW, MO
MMO's played: SWG (pre cu/cu), WoW, AoC, WAR, DFO, Planetside
MMO's that I have tested: Lotro, L2, Aion, Ryzom
Funcom said pre launch they would see it as they had failed to meet the expectations if they got 100k susbcribers so I doubt they would be eager to claim these numbers as good numbers.
People seems obsessed with subscription numbers when it comes to MMO's these days, subscription numbers alone don't tell us if a game is good or bad.
That is a very good point, AoC would only have around 100 users if it was based on that.
While the OP may sound like a troll throwing numbers around, "omg the troll is throwing number around! numbers hurt my feelings! amagad!" I feel (in my humble opinion) that it is a relatively accurate estimate.
Why? Well factor in the server merges, the relatively sharp drops seen in the player base throughout the game's history, xfire numbers, forum activity and lastly general consensus. My educated guess would tell me that its around the 100-150k mark. I'll bet money its not over 300k (which WAR is right now).
100k is about what most people have AOC at. It's difficult to tell based on server populations at the moment because of the server mergers and the hype surrounding that. Any time there is a big change to a game (patch etc) the amount of people playing increases just because of curiousity.
The deeply discounted boxes was also a boon for AOC as far as getting new players (at a time when Warhammer was fading). The first time AOC had a bunch of new players, they failed to keep them past the free month. We'll see what happens this time.
Usually the most accurate way to predict populations is by the number of servers and their relative population. AOC, despite doing the mergers, kept a bunch of very low population servers active because of their location/ruleset.
When i saw the title of the thread I drooled all over myself at first, seeing I had just had a thread locked where I used a benchmark method to help determine proportions compared with other mmorpgs.
To me FC is almost "snake-like" for not releasing the info--I just can't help think with their reputation that they are just concealing the truth, and after all the lies they fed their customer base, well it suits them to omit anything and everything they can. So now the question becomes...even if FC released the numbers...would you believe them? Would those be active players, alts? I would personally have to cut whatever number they said in half...because that's the kind of repetuation they have made for themselves
People say the population has increased since the mergers--but im not sure why they think that (on the US side). I expected to see way more people. But people play at different times and have different schedules...but still it wasn't like it was at launch, back then there were way more people. (regarding the US side, im sure the pop on the Euro side is better)
My guess would be in that area, too. I don't think AOC did as well as WAR, but while WAR's numbers continue to plummet, I think AOC's might be slowly growing - now that it's playable, and people are able to see what a solid game it is. Maybe as mainstream rigs are catching up, I dunno. In the long run, I'm think AOC might do ok. If it can just surive in the interim.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
My feeling regarding subscription numbers are:
Is the company making enough money to continue to support the game with decent additions
Is it normal for most P2P mmo's to release sub numbers when doing well or not at all
Is there enough people in game to have an enjoyable experience.
Have I ever had issues finding a group when I need one.
Do I find the game enjoyable and worth my money
MMORPG.com pays for your account as an AoC Correspondent ?
The highest known dropout rat for an mmo is 100% in less than three months and it's been achieved several times. WAR is doing fine. The normal dropout rate is 50% for paid subscription box games.
100-150k subs is a believable numberand considering the conditions AoC launched under. It's certainly enough to turn a profit and build on.
Not to mention that its pretty well accepted that AOC had a greater loss than 60%. Thats mmo business speculation and based on FC advertised numbers that they had at release but for those that were around that witnessed the mass exodus its pretty much beleived to be true.
MMORPG.com pays for your account as an AoC Correspondent ?
No - I declined, no point armoring those that dislike what I say even more so
MMORPG.com pays for your account as an AoC Correspondent ?
No - I declined, no point armoring those that dislike what I say even more so
And your 'Win a trip to Oslo' didn't include free AoC game time?
MMORPG.com pays for your account as an AoC Correspondent ?
No - I declined, no point armoring those that dislike what I say even more so
And your 'Win a trip to Oslo' didn't include free AoC game time?
Nope. Wouldn't expect either from either point. Did include dropping the NDA for the visit though
MMORPG.com pays for your account as an AoC Correspondent ?
No - I declined, no point armoring those that dislike what I say even more so
And your 'Win a trip to Oslo' didn't include free AoC game time?
Nope. Wouldn't expect either from either point. Did include dropping the NDA for the visit though
Too bad the NDA for the Alpha / Early Beta wasn't dropped, I think fans would find it very interesting and rather heartbreaking.
MMORPG.com pays for your account as an AoC Correspondent ?
No - I declined, no point armoring those that dislike what I say even more so
And your 'Win a trip to Oslo' didn't include free AoC game time?
Nope. Wouldn't expect either from either point. Did include dropping the NDA for the visit though
Too bad the NDA for the Alpha / Early Beta wasn't dropped, I think fans would find it very interesting and rather heartbreaking.
Not much point really, the concept and design principles were already in place and known, everything else subject to change as per any mmorpg at that level of development. Have to protect business interests as well. Consider the bigger picture from that point of view. If ever you worked with NDA's from where it would effect you then maybe you might understand a bit more.
Besides they were very open with information some 9000 forums posts from dev's giving updates as they went along taking in feedback and such. Knowing how a game starts 4 yrs before it releases wouldn't have any bearance on sub numbers.
Very open with information ? Say that again AA.
You do know you are talking about the company that didn't lift NDA. And the same company had their FORUMS CLOSED TO PUBLIC when game launched to prevent information about the real state of the game coming out.
Serioulsy....
Some things can be defended - but there are others that can not. AOC is probably the last game in the genre that will be launched without lifing NDA. Around mililon ppl bought a game based on false promises including such small issues as the first every MMORPG game with DX10 support.
Im sorry.... Did Funcom even put the announchment info that DX was not in on their closed "public" forums ? Very open with information what ?
This statement from AA pretty much shows everyone that hes not really here to bring out the truth about the game. Hes here only to talk about his/Funcom version of the truth. That truth is about selling a game no matter what. And adding few lies about how Funcom has been open with information sounds pretty nice - But its also sounds alot like the same lies that have been going on from day one of this game title.
Actually you know... Im sorry. I thought it was quite clear what I wrote. Maybe you just didn't get it as your twisting it all up amongst your own feelings.
Whilst I was away from that competition I won, the NDA was lifted for Press + myself - hence the 5 + hours of camcorder footage released I took and the write up's Jon Wood did at the time as well as other sites.
I respect the NDA I was under before and after that trip from the beta.
NDA was lifted before launch in the same scope as other games about the come out shortly after too. I don't hear you moaning on their boards?
There were 10's of thousands of beta testers.
bymitra.com ? remember that site it collated all the posts devs made from the old forums? I posted it regularly here in showing that they were quite open with a lot of development with AoC.
Again this thread is a guess to the amount of subs the game has. Just because there is an NDA like other games doesn't give reason to single it out.
We are in present day, the game made $100 mill last year, continues to provide a strong backbone in income to support development for a long time. No matter how much QQ there is from the past.
You think it's funny that someone in the thread takes it off topic asking personal questions with an ulterior motive to get someone like you to respond, I think it's funny
"Topic Hijacking"
It have the highest sales because it had such large hype and had no other big game around it's release date. But bad game is bad. Age of Conan was billed as a PvP'ers dream by many players. It was theorized that this would syphon off many World of Warcraft subscribers, and it does appear that AoC did quite well in its first week of sales.
There is only one problem with this.
People are leaving AoC (80% of the free month)
I'm among them. I don't have the amount of time it would require to level from 1-80. On top of that, learning a new game and the opportunity cost of playing AoC instead of leveling an alt in World of Warcraft makes AoC seem like a waste of time.
Furthermore, reading about how AoC is punishing gankers by implementing a jail system doesn't exactly encourage me to level.
Systems to discourage ganking in PvE games are probably good.
Systems to discourage ganking in a PvP game aren't good.
I think many of the players aren't keen on leveling up another character. The eventual "WoW killer" or at least a "WoW syphon" will come when gaming companies realize you don't have to have a D+D based level grind to get players to keep playing. This will have to be combined with other gameplay elements that are done better than they are in World of Warcraft.
Darkfall Online looks like it might inspire hope. That is, if you don't mind waiting for vaporware. When your MMORPG is mentioned right after Duke Nukem Forever when it comes to vaporware, it might just be time to say "GOLD" it' and release the damn thing already.
btw for those following
NDA stands for:
Norwegian
Development
Association
--I knew it !!
Although I'm not the OP, I do think that the estimate is reasonable based upon the following:
(Disclaimer: I am neither a mathematician nor a statistician. I'm sure some of you can poke holes in the methods and reasoning used below. I'm not saying they're 100% rock-solid valid, but I think they're at least somewhat indicative. I did take stats in college, and I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night...)
Using some "known" numbers (well, claimed anyway) as a starting point, and Xfire to draw some conclusions:
Although not identical, 26.9 and 24.8 are actually quite close, so I suspect that my method at least isn't complete nonsense.... let's average them together, and use 25.9 as a rough multiplier for all games...
A few other of the top MMOs (just because I was curious, and have played all of them):
Of course I realize that Xfire numbers fluctuate daily... but at least as a point of reference, I think these numbers seem reasonable enough. None of this is proof, but it's another data point to consider...
First off - Facts
NDA was NOT lifted. It was NEVER lifted. Beta testers were NOT allowed to talk about their gaming experience during beta even after launch. Now lets keep that clear cause obviously you have missed this fact. I hope you can clarify this yourself since breaking NDA is not something that MMORPG has taken lightly in the past - even when ppl have been warning others about the true state of games - few days before launch with Pre-Order ads all over the Website.
Secondly - Im not stealing my own topic. I just want to keep things based on facts rather than something made up that is supposed to sound as a good advertisement for the game. Its easy to bend few facts when there is noone around to correct ppl. Im pretty sure you would correct me if I said something wrong so I expect I have the same right to correct you.
But your right - I was talking about AOC subs in the present game. But however you bend things - there is no way of hiding the past. AOC will always have to face up to what went on before, during and shortly after launch. That is PART of the present this game is living with. Thats probably part of the reason it has fallen from close to 1 million players down to 100-150 k like I suggested.
PPL are quick to forget. And then its alot easier to bend the past. Hell... <Mod edit> Same goes for my perspective about Funcom. FUNCOM tried deliberatly to HIDE information about the game before launch and NDA is NOT lifted like you are here claiming. That is simply not correct and I will risk beeing called stealing this topic in correcting such false statements.
The X-Fire numbers are inaccurate, at least as far as EVE and LotRO are concerned. EVE has said they have a quarter million people playing, and LotRO has said 250-300k active.
Ind just ignore Avery. Any thread with AoC will bring him out to wave the Funcom banner.