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STO projected numbers? retention?
Shazzel1
Member Posts: 26
first week? month?
Comments
probably enough
"If I offended you, you needed it" -Corey Taylor
Yes there is ranged combat for projecting numbers. Water may be retained at launch.
Launch sales 250,000, retention after 1 month will be less than 10%.
Cryptic is trying a Customer Development approach to MMO creation.
I think the hardcore will move to other games but the casuals and the trekies will stay. There will be enough to keep us going for a while.
Box sales at launch: 600,000
Retention (subs) after three months: 200,000
"" Voice acting isn't an RPG element....it's just a production value." - grumpymel2
I'll parrot those numbers as well.
Alltern8 Blog | Star Wars Space Combat and The Old Republic | Cryptic Studios - A Pre Post-Mortem | Klingon Preview, STO's Monster Play
good landmark...
I think 600k box sales is too high. More like 450-500k, then after 3 months the only ones left will be the trekkies and a couple casuals who log on once or twice a week.
Cmon guys this is Star Trek we're talking about.
I'm gonna guess 1 million sold, and 400-600k retention after 1 month.
"Because it's easier to nitpick something than to be constructive." -roach5000
Well, I think STO will fail as an MMO, but not as a Star Trek game. It will be fun for the average non-OMGSTARTREK players for about a month or so, and then just the hardcore trekkie fanboys will be left.
Plus, I'm highly doubting they will sell 1mil copies. I think the game has already been a disappointment to many fans, and also I know a lot have jumped ship over to SW:TOR.
Obviously, I'm just speculating and am known to be wrong. Just my predictions
Let me just grab my crystal ball here...
That Guild Wars 2 login screen knocked up my wife. Must be the second coming!
500k launch saies, after 2 months 100k and steadily decreasing.
Wait a bit till Open beta, NDA drop.
Then folks have a better idea what shape it is in.
Unfortunately, i think box sales or going to be good. 500k maybe more.Too many people are going to buy the name Star Trek with no clue if the game is worth the price.
As to retention, way under 50%, after 2-3 months. Closer to 70-80% i think will leave. But it will stay around and after a few years might be a good game. But will. like the others that release too soon, never see numbers like at release.
Publishers reap their money on the boxes and most care nothing about the long term games.
Smart people wait till this time next year:) Pick up the game on sale on steam or some place for 5-10 bucks for the free 30 days.
Well, I think STO will fail as an MMO, but not as a Star Trek game. It will be fun for the average non-OMGSTARTREK players for about a month or so, and then just the hardcore trekkie fanboys will be left.
Plus, I'm highly doubting they will sell 1mil copies. I think the game has already been a disappointment to many fans, and also I know a lot have jumped ship over to SW:TOR.
Obviously, I'm just speculating and am known to be wrong. Just my predictions
So people jumped ship from a game that's out in one month to a game that won't be out for 6-8 if we're lucky? If we're unlucky, the "it's done when it's done" crowd will get their wish and SWTOR will go from most anticipated game of 2010 to most anticipated of 2011.
I'm waiting for SWTOR as much as the next guy but at least STO will give me something to do. Otherwise I might as well restart my WOW subscription to pass the time. Playing Team Fortress 2 and other FPSs gets boring after a while.
honestly in its current state sto is fun, it feels like trek and sounds like trek, and its alot of fun. it has bugs to be fixed and content to be added, but so does every other mmo years after launch so meh, try it or dont, your call, but dont say it aint fun till you play it. for those not in the closed beta, get into the open beta for 5 bucks if youre too cheap to pre order a potentially fun game, for those that have to wait that first year or longer to catch an mmo for the price of a free month go ahead and do that.
I said wait a year if they were smart to get (maybe) a game worth the 5-10 bucks for the free 30days.
And i have played it:) And it is not fun. Last beta i was in that was this bad..Horizons. And yes there are some people that still love that game too:) Anyone remember the promised patch to make the game oh so much better just before release?
They still have major parts of game that they have not added a week or so before OB starts for crying out loud. This is a game that could be decent in a year, maybe. They are going to have to work some major magic to get this ready to release on the time frame they have now.
Will agree on the it is your cash spend it if you wish. Just no where worth the price in my opinion and will not be for quite some time.
I can only repeat:
Open beta will show and many people cancel their plans to buy.
So i will say 200k sold and after free month drops to ~35-45k then within 2 month down to a fanboy base around 10k-15k.
I would agree with this. I think it's sub history will be similar to lotros
Make it so...
Well take this as what you will.. i am in beta... so that will affect my opinion..
Sales: 400,000-600,000
# that stay after 1 month: 200,000
after 2 months: less then 100k
after taht wll settle down to around 40k
i have pre-ordered and will play.. only because my friend is.. but in its current state i'll last less then a month...
Over 1 000 000 box sales. Over 75% percent retention with expanding sales into the near future so that by summer 2010, over 2 000 000 will be playing and paying.
Then they'll open servers in China and hit 5 000 000 by 2012.
India by 2014 and 10 000 000 customers with 250 servers worldwide.
Living the Dream!
Chewing the mushrooms.
"" Voice acting isn't an RPG element....it's just a production value." - grumpymel2
Chewing the mushrooms.
lmao, this.
Box sales: 600k
1month: 300k
3 months:90k
6 months: 60k
Because of long term subs that cancel early, actual numbers may be less.
6 months out:
500k-750k box sales
<150,000 subs.
Edit: Forgot to mention that Cryptic will claim the game is a success (and perhaps it will be in the sense that it will make back its investment) but anyone with half a brain will realize that a well done Trek MMORPG would garner more than 150,000 subs.
Until you cancel your subscription, you are only helping to continue the cycle of mediocrity.
Gotta agree here. Though not having played it, I can't totally condemn the game, but from what I've read/seen.... it's going to be a disappointment.
Still, I do think box sales themselves will be higher than most MMO's we've seen at launch thus far. The IP fit's perfectly with the typical computer literate ST fan, even if the game itself doesn't.