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CCP knows, but did you ?

24

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  • NekrataalNekrataal Member Posts: 557

    EVE will be hit very hard as soon as another decent space MMO will come out. There reliance on multi accounts to suck more money out of their player base will be their undoing imo.

    Currently, it as no competition & is already stagnating if not declining as the OP trys to point out.

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    I'd say the graph points to a stabilisation or slight decline.

     

    Next to that, you forget about the Tyrannis expansion, Incarna and Dust 514.

    Those are bound to raise interest for EVE Online as well.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • ryuga81ryuga81 Member UncommonPosts: 351


    Originally posted by Yamota
    I doubt Eve is dying but it is stagnating, subscriber wise, and that is, imo, mainly because of CCPs unwillingness to do something about the archaic UI and huge death penalty coupled with the fact that gankers can get away with pretty much anything. Heck 9/10 PvP encounters in Eve is some kind of ganking and even remotely even encounters are basically unheard of.

    if you fall for a gank with a costly ship, 99% of the times it's because you did something wrong/silly/risky. indeed, EVE is one of the few open-pvp games that actually give you a decent chance to avoid death (in most other games, the bad guy will be bigger, stronger AND faster than you).

  • stnylanstnylan Member Posts: 11

    The 350k number for Apoc is bogus. The only reference I can find of it is a random number someone suggested in the thread discussing the preliminary results of the CSM elections. Apoc did take EVE over 300k as I recall from the time, but only just over.  

    There was a slight drop in number over last summer/autumn iirc, a combination of usual summer dip, but also the several thousand accounts that got banned from Unholy Rage (around 9000 as I recall). That took EVE back below 300k as I recall from a presentation at Fanfest (Eyo Gs one iirc).

    In the run-up and immediately after Dominion, and entirely from memory, I think EVE was hitting 330k subs over the winter. I seem to recall mention of that in a press release. Also there were new PCU records over the winter that would tend to suggest a higher base population. So a small regression, much smaller than is being touted.

    Given the lag difficulties, not to mention some folks being dishearted by nullsec changes (both Goons and former Proviblock) I can easily see how a modest drop in numbers would occur.

  • MalcanisMalcanis Member UncommonPosts: 3,297

    Originally posted by Nekrataal

    EVE will be hit very hard as soon as another decent space MMO will come out.

     

    Possibly. But there is no prospect of this happening any time soon.

    Give me liberty or give me lasers

  • LobotomistLobotomist Member EpicPosts: 5,981

    Originally posted by Malcanis

    Originally posted by Nekrataal

    EVE will be hit very hard as soon as another decent space MMO will come out.

     

    Possibly. But there is no prospect of this happening any time soon.

    Its hard to believe anything even remotely approaching complexity of EVE will be released in next 10 years.

    Eve was made before dumbing down trend hit the MMO scene.



  • MalcanisMalcanis Member UncommonPosts: 3,297

    If Cryptic had actually made Star Trek in to an MMORPG, then it might have threatened EVE.

    Now the only thing on the horizon is the upcoming Star Wars thing, and I have my doubts about that too.

    Give me liberty or give me lasers

  • QuirhidQuirhid Member UncommonPosts: 6,230

    Only one even remotely promising is Jumpgate Evolution but I will not hold my breath.

    You have to remember that a rivalling game doesn't have to get everyone from Eve to cripple it. Some players do only PvP and space combat, if a significant portion of that specific player type migrates to a rival's game after a better space combat PvP, I can't believe Eve staying the same. Changes would have to be made. And changes can be either good or bad, which in turn may cause players to leave the game.

    Didn't something like this happen in UO when EQ came? All the carebears went from UO to EQ and as a result there was no-one to grief for the Player-Killing-sort. Then the PK-players quit aswell. Both in large numbers, not everyone.

    I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been -Wayne Gretzky

  • WraithoneWraithone Member RarePosts: 3,806

    Originally posted by Lobotomist

    Originally posted by Malcanis


    Originally posted by Nekrataal

    EVE will be hit very hard as soon as another decent space MMO will come out.

     

    Possibly. But there is no prospect of this happening any time soon.

    Its hard to believe anything even remotely approaching complexity of EVE will be released in next 10 years.

    Eve was made before dumbing down trend hit the MMO scene.

     Yes it was, and thats also why it will remain a nich market.  CCP seems happy enough with that, so that is what matters.  Have you noticed that this trend isn't just in MMO's?  As the general population is dumbed down, so is just about everything else, thats mass market focused.  This trend is dangerous, in and of itself.  Its possible that some well funded and very talented group could come along and challenge CCP, but with their head start and talent base it would be rather difficult.

    "If you can't kill it, don't make it mad."
  • WraithoneWraithone Member RarePosts: 3,806

    Originally posted by Quirhid

    Only one even remotely promising is Jumpgate Evolution but I will not hold my breath.

    You have to remember that a rivalling game doesn't have to get everyone from Eve to cripple it. Some players do only PvP and space combat, if a significant portion of that specific player type migrates to a rival's game after a better space combat PvP, I can't believe Eve staying the same. Changes would have to be made. And changes can be either good or bad, which in turn may cause players to leave the game.

    Didn't something like this happen in UO when EQ came? All the carebears went from UO to EQ and as a result there was no-one to grief for the Player-Killing-sort. Then the PK-players quit aswell. Both in large numbers, not everyone.

    Having been there, I can tell you thats pretty much what happened.  Once the ganking got totally out of hand, many people left for other games.  I went to Asherons Call and enjoyed it for a year or two, then went on to other games.  Unless CCP does something REALLY stupid and ill considered, I suspect they will be around for quite some time.

    "If you can't kill it, don't make it mad."
  • batolemaeusbatolemaeus Member CommonPosts: 2,061


    Originally posted by Quirhid
    Only one even remotely promising is Jumpgate Evolution but I will not hold my breath.

    Dude, it's a Jumpgate remake. It's as far away from the core concepts of Eve as you can get.

    You're also forgetting that the solo players, aka mission runners and highsec miners in eve, are not required. They hardly interact with anyone else. If they leave, the economy would change for the better and the pvp landscape would stay exactly the same.

  • WraithoneWraithone Member RarePosts: 3,806

    Originally posted by batolemaeus

     




    Originally posted by Quirhid

    Only one even remotely promising is Jumpgate Evolution but I will not hold my breath.




    Dude, it's a Jumpgate remake. It's as far away from the core concepts of Eve as you can get.

    You're also forgetting that the solo players, aka mission runners and highsec miners in eve, are not required. They hardly interact with anyone else. If they leave, the economy would change for the better and the pvp landscape would stay exactly the same.

     

    Given that the inhabitants of high sec(mission runners, miners and other such) make up well more than half of the player base, do you really think CCP would continue to run Eve in the event that all of us CareBear scum left? ^^   Losing all of those high sec miners would have a drastic impact on the materials market.  That in and of itself would impact the PvP crowd, who go through ships and mods like popcorn.  I seriously doubt that CCP is going to do anything that would have that type of  impact on its business model.

    "If you can't kill it, don't make it mad."
  • batolemaeusbatolemaeus Member CommonPosts: 2,061

    Eve could run on much smaller customer base. It has in the past and could in the future.
    And no, Miners don't produce most of the minerals and won't after Tyrannis. Nothing's changing here and if they leave, mineral prices will raise to a degree that others take over. All in all it would result in a much more healthy economy as the price of minerals would slightly increase, making loss more meaningful while boosting mining in 0.0.

    That is all assuming that a game could leech highsec customers away from eve, which, while more likely to happen than a game for the 0.0 crowd emerging, is still very improbable.

  • WraithoneWraithone Member RarePosts: 3,806

    Originally posted by batolemaeus

    Eve could run on much smaller customer base. It has in the past and could in the future.

    And no, Miners don't produce most of the minerals and won't after Tyrannis. Nothing's changing here and if they leave, mineral prices will raise to a degree that others take over. All in all it would result in a much more healthy economy as the price of minerals would slightly increase, making loss more meaningful while boosting mining in 0.0.

    That is all assuming that a game could leech highsec customers away from eve, which, while more likely to happen than a game for the 0.0 crowd emerging, is still very improbable.

    Sure, in theory it *could* run on a smaller player base. But given their current expenses, I seriously doubt they want to go back to the bad old days.  Losing 50-60% of their profit per month would require some drastic reductions in staff and expenses.  But I seriously doubt they are going to do anything that would damage their business model in that fashion.  As for its impact on the PvP set, the death penalty is already more than harsh enough.  One reaches the point of diminishing returns with such things. Much more than it already is would just be sadistic.  The impact of Tyrannis is yet to be seen. Look at how Dominion changed things.

    "If you can't kill it, don't make it mad."
  • cosycosy Member UncommonPosts: 3,228

    [quote][i]Originally posted by stnylan[/i] [b]The 350k number for Apoc is bogus. The only reference I can find of it is a random number someone suggested in the thread discussing the preliminary results of the CSM elections. Apoc did take EVE over 300k as I recall from the time, but only just over.   There was a slight drop in number over last summer/autumn iirc, a combination of usual summer dip, but also the several thousand accounts that got banned from Unholy Rage (around 9000 as I recall). That took EVE back below 300k as I recall from a presentation at Fanfest (Eyo Gs one iirc). In the run-up and immediately after Dominion, and entirely from memory, I think EVE was hitting 330k subs over the winter. I seem to recall mention of that in a press release. Also there were new PCU records over the winter that would tend to suggest a higher base population. So a small regression, much smaller than is being touted. Given the lag difficulties, not to mention some folks being dishearted by nullsec changes (both Goons and former Proviblock) I can easily see how a modest drop in numbers would occur. [/b][/quote]

    eve never hit 350k accounts i link the image again for you

     

     

    image

    BestSigEver :P
    image

  • qazymanqazyman Member Posts: 1,785

    Originally posted by Wraithone

    Originally posted by batolemaeus

     




    Originally posted by Quirhid

    Only one even remotely promising is Jumpgate Evolution but I will not hold my breath.





    Dude, it's a Jumpgate remake. It's as far away from the core concepts of Eve as you can get.

    You're also forgetting that the solo players, aka mission runners and highsec miners in eve, are not required. They hardly interact with anyone else. If they leave, the economy would change for the better and the pvp landscape would stay exactly the same.

     

    Given that the inhabitants of high sec(mission runners, miners and other such) make up well more than half of the player base, do you really think CCP would continue to run Eve in the event that all of us CareBear scum left? ^^   Losing all of those high sec miners would have a drastic impact on the materials market.  That in and of itself would impact the PvP crowd, who go through ships and mods like popcorn.  I seriously doubt that CCP is going to do anything that would have that type of  impact on its business model.

    Many of the people that mine and mission in hisec also PewPew in low and null, and others that are only in hisec ATM plan to PewPew in the future. I don't know this for a fact, but I would bet that the number of pure hisec money makers, that have no other interest, isn't a large as you think. As in over 50%

    Having said that, I think it's pretty obvious that CCP has no plans to upset this group, and has done a pretty good job of keeping them happy.

    To the OP, I haven't seen anything to make me think the game isn't growing at the same slow constant rate it always has.

  • WraithoneWraithone Member RarePosts: 3,806

    Originally posted by qazyman

    Originally posted by Wraithone


    Originally posted by batolemaeus

     




    Originally posted by Quirhid

    Only one even remotely promising is Jumpgate Evolution but I will not hold my breath.





    Dude, it's a Jumpgate remake. It's as far away from the core concepts of Eve as you can get.

    You're also forgetting that the solo players, aka mission runners and highsec miners in eve, are not required. They hardly interact with anyone else. If they leave, the economy would change for the better and the pvp landscape would stay exactly the same.

     

    Given that the inhabitants of high sec(mission runners, miners and other such) make up well more than half of the player base, do you really think CCP would continue to run Eve in the event that all of us CareBear scum left? ^^   Losing all of those high sec miners would have a drastic impact on the materials market.  That in and of itself would impact the PvP crowd, who go through ships and mods like popcorn.  I seriously doubt that CCP is going to do anything that would have that type of  impact on its business model.

    Many of the people that mine and mission in hisec also PewPew in low and null, and others that are only in hisec ATM plan to PewPew in the future. I don't know this for a fact, but I would bet that the number of pure hisec money makers, that have no other interest, isn't a large as you think. As in over 50%

    Having said that, I think it's pretty obvious that CCP has no plans to upset this group, and has done a pretty good job of keeping them happy.

    To the OP, I haven't seen anything to make me think the game isn't growing at the same slow constant rate it always has.

    CCP has stated themselves (to their disgust... ^^) that more than half of their player base stays in high sec and seldom if ever leaves. Thats one of the reasons they haven't given in to the howling of the various vocal minority that wants L4 missions moved to low sec.(the better to gank mission fitted ships...).  Its also the reason behind the evolution of Concord, and the high sec ROE.

    "If you can't kill it, don't make it mad."
  • qazymanqazyman Member Posts: 1,785

    Regardless of what they say publically, I think their actions show that CCP lubs der Carebears.

  • WraithoneWraithone Member RarePosts: 3,806

    Originally posted by qazyman

    Regardless of what they say publically, I think their actions show that CCP lubs der Carebears.

     

    I would certainly hope so! We are so loveable after all! ^^  Not to mention its all of us CareBears that help make CCP's bottom line look SO sweet ^^

    "If you can't kill it, don't make it mad."
  • batolemaeusbatolemaeus Member CommonPosts: 2,061


    Originally posted by qazyman
    Regardless of what they say publically, I think their actions show that CCP lubs der Carebears.
    image

    FYP

  • AngorimAngorim Member Posts: 466

    Originally posted by Wraithone

    Originally posted by qazyman


    Originally posted by Wraithone


    Originally posted by batolemaeus

     




    Originally posted by Quirhid

    Only one even remotely promising is Jumpgate Evolution but I will not hold my breath.





    Dude, it's a Jumpgate remake. It's as far away from the core concepts of Eve as you can get.

    You're also forgetting that the solo players, aka mission runners and highsec miners in eve, are not required. They hardly interact with anyone else. If they leave, the economy would change for the better and the pvp landscape would stay exactly the same.

     

    Given that the inhabitants of high sec(mission runners, miners and other such) make up well more than half of the player base, do you really think CCP would continue to run Eve in the event that all of us CareBear scum left? ^^   Losing all of those high sec miners would have a drastic impact on the materials market.  That in and of itself would impact the PvP crowd, who go through ships and mods like popcorn.  I seriously doubt that CCP is going to do anything that would have that type of  impact on its business model.

    Many of the people that mine and mission in hisec also PewPew in low and null, and others that are only in hisec ATM plan to PewPew in the future. I don't know this for a fact, but I would bet that the number of pure hisec money makers, that have no other interest, isn't a large as you think. As in over 50%

    Having said that, I think it's pretty obvious that CCP has no plans to upset this group, and has done a pretty good job of keeping them happy.

    To the OP, I haven't seen anything to make me think the game isn't growing at the same slow constant rate it always has.

    CCP has stated themselves (to their disgust... ^^) that more than half of their player base stays in high sec and seldom if ever leaves. Thats one of the reasons they haven't given in to the howling of the various vocal minority that wants L4 missions moved to low sec.(the better to gank mission fitted ships...).  Its also the reason behind the evolution of Concord, and the high sec ROE.

    I never understood why people complain that the game has more subscribers, whether in high, low, null; does it matter?  A game as complex as EVE takes all types and the more people, the more robust the economy.

     

    I've seen people criticize miners and flame them, but that's just as puzzling; where do you think your awesome ship came from in the first place?  I may delve more into PvP and politics at some point but if it's forced upon me then I'll probably just move on.  I can adapt to rules and regulations with in the game but forcing players into nothing but PvP combat would be the worst possible scenario.  For now I enjoy building an empire and creating the weapons for war as opposed to fighting the war myself.

  • Rockgod99Rockgod99 Member Posts: 4,640

    Originally posted by Metal_M

      Since Apoc. expansion EVE playerbase is in decline. Atm there are 311k account and in apoc. expansion where 350k+ players. Owerall -49k account total in decline.

     With introduction of Dominion expansion, players cant even fight in null sec. anymore, becouse everthing locks down / big lag. Latest such big event was, when 2k players fighted in one system and ccp was forced down to shut down that sistem due extreme lag (lol).

     

      Latest EVE events are only lag fest: 2-5 fps max for a player.

     

     Statment from ccp developer on EVE offical forums: Link: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1321437&page=1#19

    It's been states a hundred freaking times that Eve was just over 320k subs around Apocs release.

    So to have 311k right before a major expansion is very good when you add in the lag issues less than a 10k drop is fantastic. Honestly with how unhappy most of the 0.0 guys/gals are im shocked that Eve hasent dropped under 300k lol.

    Once Command centers release on June 8th you will see the Number shoot to around 330k. Then CCP will announce their sub numbers officially.

     

    And to the newb that says high sec players dont matter, what do you think will happen if 80% of CCPs subs left the game? Do you not like two expansions a year? Do you not want incarna? Dust? Do you not want CCP to work on other projects?

    The game would go to maintenance mode without the empire players so please do us all a favor and stfu. God I hate holier than thou Null sec players. Such a vocal group for being less that 15% of the population.

    image

    Playing: Rift, LotRO
    Waiting on: GW2, BP

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342


    Originally posted by batolemaeus
    You're also forgetting that the solo players, aka mission runners and highsec miners in eve, are not required. They hardly interact with anyone else. If they leave, the economy would change for the better and the pvp landscape would stay exactly the same.

    Such ignorant post, I would have expected much more from you... :(

  • Rockgod99Rockgod99 Member Posts: 4,640

    Originally posted by Gdemami

     




    Originally posted by batolemaeus

    You're also forgetting that the solo players, aka mission runners and highsec miners in eve, are not required. They hardly interact with anyone else. If they leave, the economy would change for the better and the pvp landscape would stay exactly the same.



    Such ignorant post, I would have expected much more from you... :(

    +1

    image

    Playing: Rift, LotRO
    Waiting on: GW2, BP

  • batolemaeusbatolemaeus Member CommonPosts: 2,061


    Originally posted by Gdemami
    Such ignorant post, I would have expected much more from you... :(

    Nope, factual.
    The only people that are actually a functioning entity in the economy and pvp landscape are the producers, they are somewhat the link. Most producers are heavily involved with the rest of eve.
    Mission runners, on the other hand, are responsible for an extreme influx of minerals and single handedly devalued the mining profession. Highsec mining further devalued the other minerals. All the while they are not active in the social network.

    As an economy, eve would be much better without them. The current capital excesses and problems with insurance are mostly caused by an overproduction of minerals, ironically not from mining but from the fact that the production of minerals that were formerly very hard to get (e.g. zyd/mega/morphite) is now extremely easy. If I were to tell my corp that I'd take out my hulks to go mine some Hemorphite, i'd be laughed at. When I started Arkonor/Bistot/Crokite were something like the holy grail. They were worth enough that people organized escorts and shared the profit. Since then and with a huge influx of mission runners and alloy farmers the mineral market went belly up and resource gathering went from moderately boring but rewarding to very boring with bad pay.

    But i digress. I was commenting on what would happen if a game popped up that did something better than Eve and cause an exodus of players. I expect anyone involved in resource gathering and pve to leave first, since these activities are extremely simplistic in Eve and the thing I'd focus on first if I were to release a new mmo. There will be no mmo that can challenge Eve's pvp and social aspect in a decade, not with the risk averse industry we have today.
    So if everyone who is running missions / gathers resources as his primary form of entertainment leaves, the economy would still function or even recover to a point in the past when it was healthier for game balance.

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