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WoW loses 70% of free trials before level 10
Amaranthar
Member EpicPosts: 5,852
From an article at Elder Game, this quote:
Mike Morhaime (president of Blizzard) said the following about World of Warcraft:
“Our research shows that trial players who play World Of Warcraft past level 10 are much more likely to stick with the game for a long time. Currently, only about 30% of our trial players make it past this threshold.”
This astounds me, not because WoW loses such a larger percentage of new players, but because of the massive numbers that have to be involved. These are free trials, evidently, so it's probably different for those who alreay bought the game. (I didn't know WoW had free trials.)
Now, the article makes this point:
Morhaime went on to talk about how they intend to use the upcoming Cataclysm expansion to improve this number, but at the moment I am more interested in the number itself. Most of the comments I’ve seen today focus on how terrible it is: OMG, 70% of trial players quit before level 10! That’s … that’s … awful! WoW is dying! Blizzard, do something!
Except it’s not terrible. It’s amazing. A five year old game, content that for the most part hasn’t been touched at all in five years, and three out of ten free trial players are putting in the 4+ hours of gameplay to get to level 10? (Remember, a new player will take longer to level than an experienced WoW-hand.) And for many players, that four hours is going to be more than one play session, which means that they have to remember to come back. Amazing.
I don't agree that it's not awful. In comparison, maybe it's not, but when you stop to think that so many people who were interested enough in the first place to even try it out, decided they didn't like it,... that's awful.
So, game developers, maybe all of us players around here calling for "something different" aren't such a small minority after all?
Of course, I think most game developers know this. But they aren't making the money decisions. They also probably don't know exactly what that "something different" is.
For those of us who are still looking, lets not give up hope. The facts are out there. If we can convince "them", someone, where the next gen of gaming needs to go and how it needs to be done, I'm sure they have an ear open for it.
Once upon a time....
Comments
I wouldnt hope too much. In a sandbox this numbers would be even much worse. As there is no one who would hold your hand and lead your path (quests).
I dont know how high are the numbers of eve-trial, but i cant imagine them reaching 30% at all.
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Considering that Second Life loses about 80% in the FIRST HOUR it seems to me it's not that bad for Blizzard.
Forget comparison to other games. Most of them are the same game play, and EVE is an entirely different game that doesn't have avatars and worlds that you explore the same way. (Unless you compare a FPSer as the same kind of MMO.)
The point is the numbers out there that are interested in MMOs with avatars and worlds and dungeons, etc., who are still looking and didn't like what WoW offers.
Lets assume for a second that WoW has 5 million subs from the free trials. If those 5 million represented only 30% of all those who tried the trial, that means that over 15 million trials didn't like WoW, even though they were interested in that basic sort of MMO enough to try it out.
That's a lot of would be gamers out there looking for "something different".
Once upon a time....
I'm one of the people that quit Second Life in the first hour. Some guy walked past me with a penis on his head. That was enough for me.
First that information is like a year old at this point, and had been discussed on these forums the first time around.
Second, I don't think this proves what you hope for. I would attribute a lot of that 70% to two things. One, people want to see what this huge WoW thing is that they always hear about. They may not even be gamers. So they make a free trial and run around for a bit, don't get why so many people play the game, and quit. Two, people who used to play and consider coming back. So they create a free trial, hop in, see that they still don't like it and quit.
I don't think much of that percentage is MMO players who are trying to find a home. Also I think a lot of MMO players are good enough with MMOs that they'd get past level 10 pretty quick. And since most MMO players know that the game changes at higher levels, they would level up as far as they can during a trial to see if they're going to like the game.
The mistake you're making OP is assuming that the percentage is actually a lot of players. Note that Blizzard didn't give actual figures on just how many use the trial. On the other hand, the numbers for the trial may be astronomical.
What I'm trying to say is that percentages are meaning less in this context. Yes you can view it as "glass is 30% full" or "glass is 70% empty" but in the end you don't know just what the capacity of the glass is and thus lose the context.
30% of 100 is one thing, 30% of 100,000,000 is something else entirely.
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Oh what a stupid conclusion.
trial attrition means absolutly nothing.
it just tell us that 7 out of every 10 kids that download the game cannot pay comes sub time, so they stopped playing before they had time to miss the game more.
or that 7 out of every 10 guys that play a completly different genre (RTS, FPS, Driving games) give it a shot to see what all the fuss was about, and then they went back to the genre they liked.
or that 7 out of every 10 chinese botters were banned due to goldfarming before their trial was over
or that....you get the idea...
The only thing that matters is player attrition (those who bought the game and some sub time), and WoW blows away every other past present and future MMO under the sun in that regard.
Key bit of information missing in the discussion is what are normal churn rates for most released games.
I think 50% attrition is common for many games in the first month. Consider that usually there is no free trial so those people are already commited to some degree and more likely to stay.
So in end the rate of loss from a free trial is similar to that of a game in its first month of release when you correct for the people who not really invested in anyway or simply curious what all the hype is about. So WoWs numbers are not amazing they are simply normal compared top what happens when people try out an MMO.
In the end alot of free trials will be people trying it out to see what the hell Mr T is talking about or why a friend theirs suddenly has no life (I know of at least two people who did this and then told, well yelled at, their friends to stop playing and get a girl).
7 out of 10 success isn't unusual at all in any market, though I think Morhaime is likely missing what the data means(or pretending not to notice). It doesn't necessarily mean that getting people past level 10 will get them to stay. To me it means that many people already know WoW isn't their game before level 10. People that see something they like, will more likely stick around past lvl 10 to make up their minds, and odds are will be more likely to sub than those who know it's not their game right off the bat.
But hey, it's his job to make shareholders believe that there's a secret to selling these pre-10 people, whether he truly believes it or not.
It's safe to say that many people who trial WoW are trying an MMO for the first time. It makes perfect sense, in other words, that if you're new to MMO's, that you'll try the undisputed champion to trial first. Somebody who's not into video games that much is a crapshoot. FPS people are likely going to find most MMO's slow and dull. RTS people may not like the small scope, etc.
Lastly, speaking from experience, I can say that I've certainly tried more than 10 MMO's. Probably closer to 20. And I'm only subbing to 2, now. Soon to be 1. You could say that MMO records for ME are 5-10%, and I actually LIKE MMO's!
Of course it matters. It adds a significant amount of players that may not have otherwise have subbed and therefore also affects player attrition
It may not be a great indication of the overall quality of the game since there will be a lot of throw away reasons. And for that reason it may be hard for ANY game to break past 30-40% but certainly it matters. Especially if other games are at 10% or something.
Also if Blizzard fails to significantly increase that 30% figure even with serious efforts put forth in the upcoming content, then it may be that the industry starts to think that 30% figure is the upper cieling from ANY trial.
And lastly it is very useful for comparison to new models Turbine is using with F2P + buy extra content from e-store. Although for that we would want volume as well as percentage. Is a Free Trial good enough or does the Turbine F2P model end up getting more total % of people. Do less people quit early when they do not need to worry about a sub? And if if more people do stick around do they wind up paying similar money anyway due to the difference buying model?
and this is technically why they are revamping everything and their mother in cataclysm. - a whole new game so they don't lose more people.
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Let me try this again.
There are a boatload of would be MMO players out there who didn't like WoW, millions and likely 10's of millions!
Sure, everything else is deabtable. But that doesn't change this fact. The above article only talks about players who tried the free trials. It doesn't talk about all the players who quit WoW just as fast, but had bought accounts. It doesn't talk about all the players who quit WoW after level 10. And it doesn't talk about all the players who didn't even try WoW, although if they didn't I think that particular number would be small or completely uninterested in fantasy MMOs.
Guys, everything else is just spin. The core fact remains.
Once upon a time....
Seeign as a LARGE QUANITY of these are ... BOTs to spam websites i think i understand statistics and intervening varibles better than the writer of that article , who is an uneducated fop when it comes to such things and he should stop commonenting on areas outside his realm of knowledge.
B4 you say oh but u can't talk in trade w/ trail, u can /w which alot do and you can talk in public on a trail if you know how to do it.
But still who care , to show that wow is dying you just need to show a loss in subs ... trials mean nothing.
But wow can be boring.
"Society in every state is a blessing, but government even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one ..." - Thomas Paine
I am one of the 70% who quit WoW before subscribing. I honestly just find it boring and overly monotonous. My decision had very little to do with money( other than the fact of why would I pay for a game I think is boring).
For the last several years WoW has been the MMO to beat; unfortunately for one reason or another no game has really been able to do this. The problem arises when people assume that these games do not succeed in dethroning WoW do to the idea that WoW is the end all to what a MMORPG should be. I think as gamers we need to more open to other possibilities and stop being raving fanboys to a particular product or company.
I hear people ask all the time why do we keep getting WoW clones that are not as good as WoW. That reason is that is what the gaming community as a whole has clammered for; the fanboys refuse to accept any game that strays even a tiny bit from the WoW formula. To prove my point go to any forum discussing the TRINITY; you will find a number of post extalling why games have to have it based on the shear merit that becouse WoW is the most succesful MMO out their and has the Trinity in it.
"Never pay more than 20 bucks for a computer game."-Guybrush Threepwood
"I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me."-Hunter S. Thompson
don't really see why second life is even said its free to play so shrugs
WoW is a boring and mediocre game? This is news.
WoW is boring for a lot of people, especially after 20 levels or so, in my opinion.
That does not mean it's mediocre. They did a lot of things very, very well. Movement, animations, many of the skills and abilites are just flat out cool, lots of things done very right. But in the end, unless you really like level grind, it becomes boring and repetitive.
Once upon a time....
A success rate of 30% for any advertisment (a trial is basically an ad) is very good.
I was just intentionally being an ass, but you're correct.
The sad fact is that the game is retaining a bloated player base because of simple mechanics (movement/fluid combat like you mentioned). It's disturbing that every new game released doesn't focus on these core game elements and they turn out choppy, and even people like myself that are willing to look past flaws for the greater game bail.
What does that say for the rest who are less forgiving?
Man, what a dick head... (that one was too easy)
That's true, but it's irrelevant to my point.
Also, that's based on an overall structure, which includes ads to those uninterested in the product (also not relevant here) and pure lameness (again, not really relevant here with Blizzard). I used to be in sales for a quality product. I heard this standard line over and over again, that if you get 1 out of 3 you are doing good. When I told people that I rarely lost a sale, and then proved it to them because they never believed me, they all wanted to know how I did it. I did it because I had a top quality product, I had faith in that product, and I enjoyed selling that product not because of the money, but because of what it did for my customers. It was the best way for them to go, I believed it, and proved it to them, and then they believed it too.
I also had a friend who, back in the day, was the top salesman (nationally) for Sears when they were big on appliances ('70's era). He also rarely lost a customer, and for the same reasons. My point is that accepting that kind of limited rate as the goal is never a good thing. And as shown here, Blizzard is not accepting that, they are pushing it. But how they go about that is going to determine their success at it. And if they offer the same game play, only "better", I don't think they get very much extra from it, long term. Short term, certainly, and that something too.
But all that is irrelevant to my topic, it still leaves millions out there looking for a different experience.
Once upon a time....
Actually there are billions of people in the world who do not play WoW. Most of them will never even try out WoW.
What the heck were you selling that you 'rarely lost a sale'? You never had people who were 'just browsing' and thus only vaguely interested in your product?
For the first part, this post was specifically about people who tried WoW.
For the second part, I sold semi custom and full custom kitchens, baths, libraries, tops, and all the accessories. Sure, people came in to browse, but if they were browsing they were interested. I wasn't pushy at all, and friendly and more than willing to just talk about my products because I was excited about them. But that always seemed to lead them to get excited about it too. I worked hard to give my customers what they wanted, not what I wanted or just to make a sale. I had lots of customers that didn't buy for 2 years, mainly to save up some more money to get a really nice kitchen or bathroom. I never tried to flim flam anyone, and people could sense that. They knew when I told them something, that I was being straight with them. They trusted me. And like I said, I had the products behind me that I could do that. I also had a boss who was the same way, and gave me whatever support I asked for. I loved that company, that business, but sadly all good things come to an end. Age/health caught up with the owner, and his family and I started to have issues, and then I left, and soon after that the Owner was forced by health to move to a home for the elderly. Then the business folded. What a shame. But for a brief, shining moment in time, there wasn't a better business anywhere, and those many kitchens and bathrooms and a few libraries still shine with beauty as a testament to a quality effort all the way around, from start to finish.
Once upon a time....
The numbers are interesting for a few reasons.
First off it doesn't take that long to break level 10. If I logged in right now I could easily be level 10 by tomorrow. What this tells me is that the starter experience isn't "grabbing" people and they are leaving. You have to hook them early so they will get passed the free period and start subscribing. Blizzard has a 30% success rate in this, which is only a good number if you're playing baseball.
Second, thinking Cataclysm will somehow change this is... absurd. Remember, WoW subs have not increased in 2 years and that is WITH an expansion release. This one offers no new classes and a LOT of recycled content (tauren paladins oh whoop-de-do). I can't really see goblins drawing in new players (though worgen could).