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Will 2011 spell the major decline of WoW ?
ThomasN7
87.18.7.148Member CommonPosts: 6,690
I'm pretty postitve WoW will be around for quite awhile still but with The Old Republic and Guild Wars 2 looking great will Blizzard be able to still tell us 10+ million subs after these 2 great mmos launch ? I'm really excited about Guild Wars 2 and I hope that The Old Republic and Guild Wars 2 do not release in the same quarter next year so we all can play both! I'm afraid though this will be the major decline for WoW for I do not see how Blizzard will be able to maintain the 10+ million sub status anymore.
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Assuming neither game screws up it's release, I'd expect them both to have a million or more players. Not all those players will come from WoW, but even so, warcraft will be hardpressed to maintain it's subscription numbers.
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I think 2011 will be quite a year for competition among all MMOs. As far as it being the year of decline for WoW I'm not so sure. There are plenty of poeple who only play WoW and will not consider anything else. Also the ease with which they sold that translucent horse a few months ago proves that they can plug any holes in subscription revenue with another good cash shop equine breeding program.
No it will not...only thing that will kill is 2012 when the world ends.
March on! - Lets Invade Pekopon
WoW will have to fight to maintain its subscriptions,cataclysm will not have a major impact, it will eventually begins a small bleeding but they have a decent amount of zombies...er...I mean..players that will remain there forever.
I came from the future, belive me
"It has potential"
-Second most used phrase on existence
"It sucks"
-Most used phrase on existence
Major decline is pretty subjective, I mean the fact that if WoW lost half its subscribers it'd still be 5x, or more, as popular as pretty much any other game...
Also cataclysm will cause some pretty obscene returns for blizzard over the next year after its release. Sure major competitors are going to be releasing games, but that doesn't necessarily mean WoW will decline in any significant way.
You know... alot of people ask this question and it's just disregarded as a troll but honestly, the timing of all these game releases makes 2011 an interesting question.
According to Blizz' financial release in early August, as well as a post they made to investors on Twitter, Cataclysm WILL be coming out in Q4 2010. Of course that could change but let's assume it won't. So both EQ and LOTRO go f2p in September and they will undoubtedly gain some lookers and some subs. Then Cata comes out for XMas and a ton of subs go back to Blizz. Then GW2, if I read correctly, is aiming for full release early 2011 according to their FAQ. Then there will be SW:TOR after that, maybe Q3 or Q4 2011 but that is very vague. And finally, possibly, RIFT:Planes of Telara in late 2011. Not to mention some other decently-sized titles coming out as well. From famine to feast! It's going to be interesting. I don't know that any ONE of those titles can give Blizz a run for their money but the combined choices finally may give them some serious competition.
WoW has already been in decline since about 2008. The ship has finally sailed on such a boring unoriginal game. Sadly it'll probably just be replaced by a clone.
Any mmo attempts to take down wow has been demolished in the past.
You need to figure out what decline means to WoW; losing 2 to 4 million subs to GW2 or KOTOR, unlikely. Those games have a high chance of ending up like Aion (the wow killer everyone so dubbed prior to launch).
Even if Blizzard lost 2 to 4 million subs to those 2 games, Blizzard is still raking in a profit. Just not as big as it used to be. However those subs will be reactivated once people get tired of the new games after they chew through what little content those games will be released with.
I guess this is unavoidable.
People seem to look at history, the future, as if everything starts when they are born, and is set in stone, and everything will revolve around their experience while they are here on earth.
There is someone that just turned 14 today, and played WoW for the very first time EVER! and thinks it's awesome.
WoW will decline when it's very dated. The graphics or game play compared to current graphics and game play look old and tired.
When WoW gives gamers today, the perception you have when you look at a Commodore 64 game, THEN it will decline.
Until then, plenty of 12 year olds have never played WoW and will probably think it's awesome when they try it.
Good point Ihmotepp.
I must say this game looks fun
But I got your point
"It has potential"
-Second most used phrase on existence
"It sucks"
-Most used phrase on existence
the reason why i don't think 2011 will impact WoW, is because a lot (and i mean A LOT) of WoW players are ignorant when it comes to the world of MMO's. everybody i know that plays WoW has know idea anything else like it even exists. do you think all those kids that play WoW know what TOR is? i highly doubt the housewives are chatting with their friends about Rift or FFXIV. i highly doubt the guys that spend 24/7 playing because they're friends showed them the game on their lunch hour are waiting for GW2. heck i've met WoW players that don't even know what a MMORPG is.....
Well i don't think any of these mmos are attemtping to take down WoW but its only logical to think that how can Blizzard say they still have 10 mill in the bank when TOR and GW2 will obviously attract millions to come play their games. Not to mention other games liek Tera ,Rift, FFXIV and a few others releasing along the way. I just don't see where these other new players keep coming to play WoW for the first time. WoW will still be here but no way in my mind that it ill keep all those subs like it had before.
Do you know WHY they're growing in Asia? Because all the servers in China were shut down by the Government. Funny, Blizzard is quick to brag about their subscription number, but when 8 million of those subscribers from China suddenly stop playing, they don't mention it at all.
And no, we're not saying anything will KILL WoW. MMORPGs rarely ever shut down, even when doing poorly. But once you start losing subscribers, you rarely grow again. WoW has peaked. At an end it's rule is, and not short enough it was.
WoW was dated and old the day it launched. It's gameplay was unoriginal at best, and its graphics were laughable. The reason it exists is because it is EASY and rewards players for nothing, while giving them no penalties for failure. Sorry your theory is kind of wrong on that. It was basically just a more primitive version of EQ when it launched.
Aion I wouldn't consider the best example, despite the fact you're correct that it was a candidate to be a WoW killer. The problem with Aion isn't that it didn't have the potential to be a good game, or wasn't a good game, the problem was that it was an import that no amount of "westernizing" was going to fix. The differences between games developed for western markets and those developed for eastern markets is pretty vast. Aion tried, but after playing for a short time it reeked of being an import and that was enough for me to fairly easily dismiss it. I don't claim to be the voice of anyone, but I doubt I'm the only one who doesn't particularly care for the style of game prefered and created for eastern markets.
GW2 and SWTOR have a better shot in that regard, but they don't have the benefit of a year long release in a different market like Aion had, not biffing the release should be the determining factor for these two games. And they both have the potential to be some serious blockbusters and I'm sure they'll have an effect on blizzard's business, but I highly doubt it will cause a major decline. A game as popular as WoW will take many years to kill from a continuous sequences of hits or expansions on popular games. 2011 maybe a catalyst, and 2012 might end the planet, rampant speculation is easy to make.
Also keep in mind blizzard has its own new MMOG in the works, and I imagine people as saavy as those over there in either activision or blizzard need only make some kind of veteran rewards transferable to the new game to keep that cash rolling in. I use the example of the sparkly pony to show that even small things can have tremendous cash potential for blizzard.
I am 31 years old and found WoW 3 months ago.
i am hooked like a crack whore in south central L.A.
The only thing that could make me switch is Star Wars.... but lately i am getting the feeling it will be weak sauce. We'll see.
One thing to keep in mind is how people/we fell in love with our first MMORPG. Seems like nothing can ever reach the "feel" of that game.
So now we have huge number of WoW players whos first MMORPG is WoW. Just based on that fact WoW will be safe for a long time. Its players can leave every now and then but they sure as hell come back when their side step is over with another game.
And (this comes from sandbox fan) WoW works, oh yes, it is smooth and polished like no other game(depth... meh who cares). I predict that some games might leech its player base a bit but none of them will kill it. Unless some company comes out with the genre breaking true-next-generation game with 100 million subs miracle. And evn then the odds are high that this company would be Blizzard.
Answer to OPs question: no .
I met a friend in WOW that at the time told me he thought WOW was unique until we in our guild were talking about other MMO's. More on topic: I agree with the fellow who said no one game will do much to damage WOW but the combination of a few good games will. But honestly, if WOW loses half its subs in the west it will still be in pretty good shape even without counting the Chinese.
WOW isnt great because it has 12 million players. WOW has 12 million players because its great.
What has you hooked isn't WoW, it's just the general formula of MMOs. People think that its unique to WoW, or done better, but it isn't. People like advancement. WoW offers endless pats on the backs for the simplest task. Easy to get sucked in, but once the illusion is gone, you learn to dislike it.
wow has alot of subs due to fact it targets 17 and under kids. personally i'll keep saying wow can keep the kids. Their is alot of MMO's coming out that are nothing like wow. its day's are numbered as the industry standard is about to change and WoW's tricks have already ran out. You can only play the same song so long before the record breaks. n think of it this way. the upcoming new mmos will have good security probally wont see account hacking and itll be alot of fun and 100% different. now ya got wow 0 security accounts ahcked 24/7 with nothing done. same old style and game play. I'd say people will go for the new now. Most or all 18+ adult players are tierd of wow clones. So that includes WoW. Their is alot of fans for that game but thats the asian side mostly. But theirs a few asian mmos to help shrink that soon. Blizzards reign is going to end. Why because developers got the hint and have finally gotten creative to change the way we game. Don't beleave me check out gw2 or vindictus or final fantasy or few of the other new games coming out. Its time for the mmo change n evolution and its late but its here.
Like the 50 million WoW is gonna die posts before this. 2011 will do nothing to it. If any of the other over hyped games you people kept hyping up flopped. Why would 2011 be any different? Because a different company is jumping on the hype band wagon? WoW will keeps its players and draw in more for the simple reason a new expansion is coming out.
When did you start playing "old school" MMO's. World Of Warcraft?
@OP
No.
Fail...
This is the same story I read everyday on the forums.
It wasn't true two years ago and it isn't true today.
heres that thing... we already seen gameplay videos of GW2. it has proven is hype and shown that have already done what they have said. You all shall see when these games goes live. u can have ur fail wow. ill enjoy all the new mmo's that are coming out that will be different and fun. and most of all. Not LIke WoW!.