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Why this game will fail
Lienhart
Member UncommonPosts: 662
http://www.google.com/finance?q=TYO:9684
Hit all.
Look at 2003. That is due to the merger between Square and Enix.
Now fast foward to 2010. Look at the price per share, compare price per share to 2003. It is LOWER than that of what Squaresoft was worth prior to merging with Enix.
Generally speaking, people dump investments in when a large product is coming out that the product think will succeed. Hell, I dumped a large sum of money into Activision Blizzard right before SC2 came out (it wasn't for SC2, it's the timing pre-Q4 for Black Ops, Cataclysm, and .... well, it's Christmas lol).
FFXIV gonna do well huh? lol
EDIT: Incase anyone asks for a comparssion to another company's history: the only one I'm aware of that is public is Activision Blizzard. Comparing FFXIV to WoW is just not far in anyway shape of form because SE developers clearly can't develop games for PCs and their RPG skills are slipping as well.
The reason why other companies aren't viewable is simply because they are part of a larger company. There are too many factors to why a stock price goes up and down if you were to do SoE because it's part of Sony. Same goes for other companies such as Cryptic.
EDITEDIT: Damn, the amount of replies in this that exhibit lack of understanding for economics or how to run a business explains why so many people die in debt.
Comments
Your reasoning why "this game will fail" is pretty bad.
You must take financial advice from this guy:
"TO MICHAEL!"
Google Finance? lawls...
Taru-Gallante-Blood elf-Elysean-Kelari-Crime Fighting-Imperial Agent
^
I know English is hard, but generally when you make a statement, you're supposed to back it up with reasons, quotations, evidence, etc.
But sure! I'm not gonna sink down to your level to explain to a down syndrome kid that managed to learn how to type (btw, congrats on that).
You obviously know nothing about the stock market. Stock price does not flow exactly with the value of a company, or its worth in the industry. For example look at certain stocks like Target and Walmart, Target has a higher stock price than Walmart, but everyone would agree that Walmart is a bigger company with more revenue. Or even Microsoft to Apple.
Just because a stock is lower does not mean anything about the companies future performance. Also, I think you forget that the world went into recession after that merger.
their finanical reports show strong earnings.... Both Blizzard and Square have lost over 70% of value ....but if you look at the volume of Square its almost 800k compared to 500kish before,,,,they will always have cashflow due to their RPG franchises
ok fixed it ^.^
And yeah, if you did have any experience with stocks you would know 3/4 of stock follow the market regardless of how profitable they are. An earnings report might hit, and that stock might jump up or down depending on the report. Or speculation could hit teh stock 2-3 weeks in advance of an earnings report, because everyone is expecting it to be good, and the second that good earnings report hit, the price drops 3-4 points. (Buy on rumor, sell on news.)
I mean, a bad earnings report from EA Games or SE would drag down the prices of the entire videogaming sector even though they are all strong companies. Not too mention Blizzard and other gaming company stock prices can only go so high because of the extreme volatility of running a video-game company. You can spend millions developing a game that flops causing your company to go bankrupt, hence constant merges, bankruptcies, and bran new companies making millions in the sector off the one game they have.
Taru-Gallante-Blood elf-Elysean-Kelari-Crime Fighting-Imperial Agent
I never said it did. Reread what I wrote.
Lol this is the worst trolling thread i saw in this forum. ahahaha you are a funny one mister..
its not that it will fail, just that most people don't think it will succeed :P, which reading the forums gives evidence enough to that
yeah just wants this game to fail because he hate any one hates come to forms hatting games lol
.....
Then I might have to actually mock your abilities in stock simply because the logic isn't actually as sound as you might suggest. In short we can compare the statistical data of several companies and by market standards, Apple stock is technically over-valued. That however does nothing to either intimidate investor or deter individuals from purchasing Apple stock. Additionally drops in stock prices don't technically single out product failures either. By the standards you used, by simply taking any company before and after a merger and looking at the stock price in the present situation, does nothing to either account for devaluations, split of shares and purchasing of shares by the company itself. Your arbitrary usage of a date and time without much in terms of qualifying factors and criteria is the equivalent of saying Microsoft will become a failed product because it failed to reach beyond its stock value peak of $119 at around the turn of the century versus today's pricing of under $30. But I'd doubt MS is simply going to die out and fade away based on that assumption you just used.
You can forget this conversation as much as you which but doesn't matter actually because we'll all remember you for the poser you are and the true breadth of ignorant retardation you demonstrated. Now go please take your seat on the short yellow school bus and drive away so we not only have to forget you but also don't have to hear from you again.
Yeah...
- Did you check to see if they had stock splits (multiple)? Ex, they could have split the stock 3 for 1 and the stock's value divided by 3...
- Did you compare the number of stocks x price = market capitalization? Ex, stock 1 could be selling for $10 per share, and stock 2 could be selling for $100, but if stock 1 has 1 million shares and stock 2 has 10 thousand, stock 1 is worth way more in total...
- The market crash took value off of everybody, whether they deserved it or not. People were just scared.
- etc
OP is either a troll, or he's one of those people who "exhibit lack of understanding for economics or how to run a business." Either way, I wouldn't take his advice or heed his opinion too much.
Edit: Oh, but I do hope consumers totally punish SE for their lack of effort (or respect) towards customers in how they developed this game. Western customers anyway.
Claiming a game to fail because of it's companies stock value is as silly as saying a game will do good due to the high hype rating. Or to be more similar, it is like claiming a game will fail due to it's low hype rating.
I don't belive SE has said anything about how many subs they need to "succeed." So I guess we won't know either. Maybe they only need 40k or so, which they can very possibly have.
Taru-Gallante-Blood elf-Elysean-Kelari-Crime Fighting-Imperial Agent
Well going to poke my nose in here since this thread just seemed to scream out No Clue at me. A game does not fail based off stocks or what the company does with its money in the stock market at all. This game will Fail for many other reasons none of them have to do with the topic here at all. First of all MMO market has been dieing for some time only sharing 26% of the game market right now.
To be more blunt in a billion dollar industry MMO,s only drive in 26% of the total share world wide (They make more money here in the states and in Eu) Last year was a bad year for games dropping 38% compared to 08 many think it was the lack of good titles others say economy, Truth is Square did what it wanted to do not what it had to do to survive They took Enix over for a few reasons that were personal to them (Dragon Quest being the main one) As well as seeing a future to bring in a good round of same mind type people who started out as an RPG company bringing us the best 2 titles (Next to Zelda) and they knew they would work well together. I think Square should have never made FF a MMO but thats just me.
Regardless of who merges with who Activsion and Blizzard Square and Enix , EA and every company it can buy, Is sometimes a good move sometimes it is not, in the case of Square and Enix they have not lost money due to a merge but due to a Decrease in Game sales world wide. This year 2010 is projected to even be worse for the Game industry as far as sales go looking to drop another 13% and with holiday season coming and not much coming out will hurt the industry as a whole not just a Company.
Your causation/correlation between mergers, stock prices, and why/why not FFXIV will fail is weak.
Squaresoft was almost bankrupt before it came out with a "final" game before calling it quits. They called it "Final Fantasy" and it saved the company. Fast forward 20+ years later and they have one of the most recognized franchises in the gaming industry.
This merely points to the fact that a game's success is independent of the stock market or financial solvency of a company. In fact, the game saved the company and reversed its stock market course.
Here's why FFXIV will be a financial success, even though it may never ever reach mainstream appeal in the west or EU. The game doesn't pretend to be anything more than a niche game. It's a niche that has a lot of followers, who are very loyal and passionate. In Japan, though the founders of the modern gaming industry, do not use PCs to play video games. They are primarily a console culture. They do not play MMO's and if they do, they play on the console.
With that said, if FFXIV maintains 100k subscriber base in NA alone (170k preorders of the CE, not including box sales at release or thereafter), 100k in EU, and 400-500k in Japan.... then you see where I am going.
If FFXIV is huge in japan, and only mediocre to poor in NA/EU it will still be a huge financial success. having 500-700k Subscribers is a financial success by any measure (other than WoW).
Why do I think it will have 400-500k subscribers in Japan, because there's no other console mmo competition. There's a void that has only been filled with FFXI and FFXI is getting old. FFXIV will fill that void for NA/EU players who are SE fanbois and FFXI fans. IT will further fill that void with japanese players.
So thanks for your "Stock market analysis for dummies" but I think it was a poorly thoughtout attempt.
A year from now, you will see FFXIV not even being metioned on western mmo boards, people complaining how it's a fail game, how the UI sucks, how this, how that. But it will be what FFXI has been for the last 8 years. A financial success.
I guess one last point to hammer the point home. They asked someone in New York how Richard Nixon won the presidential election. The person said, "I dont' understand how he won, I don't know anyone who voted for him." Well Nixon won all states other than New York. NA MMO players can only see what's in front of them. Very narrow minded, hard to adapt, and expet certain mmo's to have certain "standard features." When an mmo comes around that is truely different, not specifically designed for them, then they call it "fail."
Edit: Go check out the threads in the FFXI forums. Check out posts three to four years ago. You will see people complaining about FFXI how it sucked, and how they couldn't understand why people liked it. Its just history repeating itself. And yes, I have been playing beta, using a controller, and enjoy my time. I dont' like minor aspects of the UI but nothing to stop me from playing. I can't wait till release so that I can play with Europeans/Japanese players on the same server and to do some exploring with my LS. Good luck everyone in finding an MMO you can call home again.
You really think this forum is accurate?? In this forums their will always be more negative threads than positive one. The reason is simple. People who dont like the game will come and post their anger more than the one who like it and is playing the game instead.
so true.....karma for you man
Clairvoyant alert!
Looks like everything worked out the way you planned! Good for you, buddy.
I think some post just to post because they are bored. Atleast I got a little chuckle out of it.
Lol!
The best part about this thread is he actually gave everyone a new reason as to why FFXIV will fail. A breath of slightly fresher air. AHHHhhh lame, pretentious, fresh air!
This thread did get me thinking about short selling SE right around the release date.
Because this game is going to bomb with horrible reviews. /Vanguard
Looks to me like the major drop in their price was related more to the dotcom bubble burst than anything else. Though they've yet to recover the share they had then, they've been fluctuating pretty regularly between 1000 and 3000ish share prices ever since.
That aside, the share price is pretty phenominal, really. ~1700 per share! Their share is nearly 200 times more valuable than Activision Blizzard! You know, that company with the most successful MMORPG of all time?
For all the original poster's blustering we don't know a thing about financing, this correlation he's trying to forward that stock price has anything to do with how successful a game will be only makes sense if you know next to nothing about finances. If anything, once you compare those figures to other major companies which have released MMORPGs, it disproves the correlation works at all.
Bahaha.
Talking about "price per share, compare price per share" is so 2008. This thread fails.
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