I think that the most realistic expectation is that nothing very major will happen. Eve will lose players and profits, WoW will slightly decrease in numbers. SWTOR will do great initial sales, then turn around into an average game with moderate profits. GW2 will do well, but not be nearly as earth-shattering as many would hope. Tera won't do very well, but will have a viable NA playerbase, so I don't think it will fail. Rift will start losing numbers but the longer it lasts the more attractive it is for some to try, so they really need to up the scale of their endgame before they'll keep people long term.
The real negative problem that we are going to see, is the rise in the number of complainers, whiners and naysayers. I myself am going to rant about things that don't suit my personal tastes, as will many, many more. There are alot of games to choose from, so either the game producers get it right, or we're going to bitch and moan about it. Back in the day when there wasn't so many games to choose from, it was all about what your favorite game did right, and things had a positive feel. Now, things are all about how these companies screw up, and so many reveiws are negative. It's going to get worse. I have seen a vision of the end my brothers, and it has more whine then a 78 Ford with a loose fanbelt, and less cognitive thought then an episode of Jerry Springer!
All of my posts are either intelligent, thought provoking, funny, satirical, sarcastic or intentionally disrespectful. Take your pick.
I get banned in the forums for games I love, so lets see if I do better in the forums for games I hate.
I enjoy the serenity of not caring what your opinion is.
I'll only talk about TOR because it really is the only game mentioned that has the potential to change the MMO world (succeed or fail).
I think BW is banking on their KoTOR success too much here. They have created an MMO that appears to play a lot like a single player RPG. They are convienced that the masses want driven stories combined with WoW like game play. My problem with this is that the masses who play WoW seem unconcerned with story. I get a decent amount of replay out of BW single player RPG's but I don't think I would if I was paying a subscription to have to roll alts for very similar experiences. I understand that each class is supposed to have their own "epic story arch", but I'm not sure the masses are all that interested in "epic story archs" that cost them a monthly fee. I know that pricing has not been announced, but I can't see TOR going f2p with a game store, in fact I think that would make the game fail big time.
I don't think TOR will be an "epic" flop, but I do think it has been too over-hyped to ever live up to that hype, I also think that we've seen some inklings in the media already of disappointment when people's expectations meet reality. Combined that with some of the poor choices EA and Lucas Arts have made in the past and I fear TOR will not be the MMO savior that so many hope it will be.
I hope it is a fun game though, I hope that those who play it can enjoy it just as a game and not attach to it some "chosen-one" (pun intended) banner that really will onlt drive more casual players away. I'm sure in sales alone it will be finacially successful in the short term at least.
Seconded.
Don't get me wrong, I think TOR will be a good game. Note I said good game, not good MMORPG. If the primary feature of your MMORPG is a heavily scripted story, then why make it an MMORPG?
SW:TOR - I expect to sell alot of boxes. Then after everyone has played through the story line with 5 alts they will find there is nothing left to do but grind instances just like the other EQ clones. I expect it's numbers to drop very low after only a few months. While I think they will make their money from it, I prediect it will be a flop in the eyes of gamers.
GW2: I predict will start out much slower than SW, however I think it's dynamic content will draw in more and more players and keep them entertained for a long time. I predict that GW2 will be a success to gamers and will set a new standard for Themepark content and re-kindle some of that "world impacting" sandbox ideaology.
TSW: Too soon to tell, but I predict it's theme will draw in players, but it's heavily instanced and repetetive gameplay wont keep people for long.
AA: I predict will not be openly welcomed by non-Asian players but will appeal to the sandbox croud and prove that a hybrid can work. I think it will remind people that being able to sail the seas, have FFA PVP, and siege warfare CAN work and still appeal to the casuals and PVEers.
EVE (CCP): I don't think the item mall is going to continue to be a problem. My prediction is that the hardcores will play it for years to come but the pop will slowly fall off to newer games and I think that Dust 514 will not be as amazing as people think because it's PS exclusive. Eve was raised and nurtured by PC gamers and now the new bells and whistles will be off limits to them???
1. SWTOR - people who have hard-ons for lightsabers will play it, everyone else will hit the level cap and roll an alt and be bored within the first month. Unless there are glaring bugs or lack of content, I see it being as successful as Rift.
2. GW2 - People are going to be shocked at how casual friendly it will be. Also, it's not going to be the second coming of Christ that everyone expects it to be. GW2's hype is bonkers.
3. EVE - If players actually leave and not just talk about it, then EVE will die. Only because EVE can't attract new customers, the only people who play it are people who enjoy one of the most boring snorefests to be known as a "game". CCP should count their lucky stars that anyone continues to play "Excel in Space" at all.
4. WoW - Will continue it's slow decline (and still make retarded amounts of money).
5. Tera - See Aion.
6. Diablo 3 - Will be awesome. Wait, I have to be negative . . . it will be terribly awesome.
On Another note I really wish devs would stop making these generic wow-like mmorpgs using diffrent wrappers, GW2, SW: ToR, Rift, your not fooling anyone who has a brain, Do your own thing and stop trying to copy the current top dog, people would like to play a mmo that at least doesn't have the "I feel like I have done this before" type feeling to it. At least I'd like to play a mmorpg that feels like that, if the dev even makes an attempt to do something orignal makes me happy. Unless its a total failure at it like Eve, I got bored after a few days because pretty much all I was doing was clicking menu's that cluttered up my screen. Was thinking of trying Perpetuum since there is more of a direct control for combat than Eve had, and its also alot less menu intensive.
TOR never claimed to revolutionize the MMO-genre. Bioware stated the combat mechanics (WoW, Trinity Gameplay, Hotkey) most MMO's currently have are fine and that they want to add their own speciality to it: Story. They pretty much claim to take the good parts of the gorilla in the corner and add their own special touch to it.
That you put GW2 on this list was extremely painful to see. The developers and owners even stated in several interviews that they believe you should not try to copy the succes of another game, but design your own thing that works. Comparing GW2 with WoW merely means you have not read up on GW2 or WoW at all. Let's take a quick look at a few of the core mechanics of both games. WoW uses quests, you talk to a questgiver, he gives you a quest in the form of text and you accept the quest and go kill those ten orcs across the map before returning to the questgiver and claiming your reward. In Guildwars 2 you arrive at a village and notice that it is under attack and if you don't intervene the village will burn down to the ground and you can't interact with it anymore until you rebuild or reclaim it. To sum it up, questing in WoW is textual and static and questing in GW2 is visual and dynamic. WoW has two factions (Horde/Alliance), GW2 has no factions. This means that there is no open-world PvP, but you can argue that WoW has no open world PvP either because of flying mounts and little effect of being killed by another player. GW2 has no mounts and especially no flying mounts, this means the world feels far more massive and alive. I have nothing against flightpaths and scripted flying quests, but your own flying mount is terrible. If this wasn't enough to convince you that WoW and GW2 are nothing alike then these might convince you.
GW2 vs WoW: Differences
Buy to Play vs Pay to Play
Painterly Graphics vs Cartoony Graphics
Dynamic Events vs Questing / Raiding
Personal Story vs NOTHING
Any Role vs Trinity Gameplay
Lots of Voice Acting vs Occassional Voice Acting
Unique Underwater Combat vs Regular Combat Underwater
Instant Waypoints vs Flightpaths / Portals
Lesser focus on Gear vs Gear Progression Path
GW2 vs WoW: Similarities
MMORPG vs MMORPG
Storymode Dungeons / Explorable Dungeons vs Normal Dungeons / Heroic Dungeons
Open Explorable World vs Open Explorable World
High level of Polish vs High Level of Polish
High Quality vs High Quality
Epic soundtrack vs Epic Soundtrack
Unique Races / Capitals vs Unique Races / Capitals
My vote is that TOR will be the biggest flop simply because the size of the budget sunk in it, combined with the level of hype surrounding combined with the expectations surrounding both the developer and the IP means it will have a much higher bar then the typical MMO needs to meet in order to be a "success".
I think EA/Bioware/LA are anticpating that they get 1 million plus suscribers from it. My perdiction is that they do well in initial box sales but 6 month's from release end up with between 200K-400K subscribers. Note, that should be considered a reasonable success by the standards of a typical AAA MMO but due to the hyper-inflated budget and expectations for TOR will be considered a failure.
I think TOR will be a reasonably well put together game but really won't bring all that much compelling in terms of long term play for MMO gamers....and I think some of the things Bioware are going to try to pull in from the SPRPG's they are so fameous for making won't translate very well to the MMO format.
The 2 games I'm keeping my eye's on that have the potential to do great things are GW2 and TSW. But we'll see if they can actually pull it off or not.
I'll only talk about TOR because it really is the only game mentioned that has the potential to change the MMO world (succeed or fail).
I couldn't disagree more. I'm sure TOR will be a great game, but it won't be changing anything aside from the storytelling (even though that's more that could be said for many other MMOS in the past decade). MMOs such as GW2 or TSW have this kind of potential, especially the former which doesn't have a subscription fee. No need to rule them out.
If you had read my post you should have come away with an understanding of why I singled out TOR. The biggest revolutionary thing that GW2 has going for it is that it has not monthly fee, but that was done already with GW1 and we have already seen how that has and hasn't changed the face of the MMO market place.
I rule these other games out because, at least in NA and Europe none of them stand to have an impact on the MMO market place on the scale of WoW. Love it or hate it, WoW changed the face of MMO's. TOR may have that potential, though I tend to think it will not live up to it.
GW1 was not an MMO. Nor was it high budget or anywhere AAA. The difference with GW2 is that it has a budget on the level of AAA MMOs such as WoW and TOR etc... And it's actually an MMO.
GW2 also has a lot of 'revolutionary' things going for it, such as no traditional quests, no trinity, WvWvW PvP etc... (Not necessarily 'revolutionary', but different from the WoW or EQ formula, which TOR is sticking to). The only reason why WoW changed the face of MMOs was because it was polished and was an MMO that was very user-friendly and convenient, which was rare back then.
The biggest thing TOR has going for it is it's fanbase. Bioware + StarWars is guarenteed to make the game sell massively upon release. But as for the game itself, I don't think it's too far off from RIFT tried to achieve; a polished game that remains mostly the same as it's predecessors.
Guild Wars 2 - impossible for it to live up to expectations. People are hyping it up to some kind of MMO Jesus. Definitely wont fail but expect huge backlash.
The Old Republic - typical prejudice campaign which is already in full effect. People bashing it endlessly for reasons that are not related to the quality of the game(ie published by EA, single player, theme park etc). TOR will sell and sell very well but however many copies it sells likely wont be enough for people to call it a success.
Tera - another prejudice campaign which is just starting. The Korean version launched way too early has suffered for it, has also given people here free reign to mindlessly bash it with little to no actual information. Most likely a sleeper hit. Wont be a big seller like GW2 or TOR but steady climb.
This is what I think would cause the game to flop.
TOR - Game releases with huge box sales. Within the first few levels, everyone finds out that all the areas on a planet are extremely tiny buildings that are copied and pasted every 5 feet and are inside instances ala DA2. People don't even stick around for a free month.
GW2 - People find out that DE aren't really dynamic at all since it's always one of two endings for that "event" at that time. MTs become huge with additional skills, armor, and "trigger items" for additonal DEs.
AA - Is your normal FFA full loot Sandbox that pulls down a huge 10,000 players because of that.
TSW - The first 10 levels are the greatest game ever created. Past that was never tested and is the worst game ever created.
This is what I think would cause the game to flop.
TOR - Game releases with huge box sales. Within the first few levels, everyone finds out that all the areas on a planet are extremely tiny buildings that are copied and pasted every 5 feet and are inside instances ala DA2. People don't even stick around for a free month.
GW2 - People find out that DE aren't really dynamic at all since it's always one of two endings for that "event" at that time. MTs become huge with additional skills, armor, and "trigger items" for additonal DEs.
AA - Is your normal FFA full loot Sandbox that pulls down a huge 10,000 players because of that.
TSW - The first 10 levels are the greatest game ever created. Past that was never tested and is the worst game ever created.
Ok I lol'd xD
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TOR...the most expensive game ever made. Bioware is trying to act like TOR is the next WoW. Not going to happen. Even if they sell one-million plus copies they won't get close to their supposed compeition.
The only ones that I think will fail hard are Tera and maybe TSW, although, I hope TSW does well. Bluehole is pushing way too hard on the "action-packed combat." Combat is one of the things I care about least in an MMO. I have worries about TSW because it's a Funcom game, but at least they're doing things differently from the rest of the pack.
The only ones that I think will fail hard are Tera and maybe TSW, although, I hope TSW does well. Bluehole is pushing way too hard on the "action-packed combat." Combat is one of the things I care about least in an MMO. I have worries about TSW because it's a Funcom game, but at least they're doing things differently from the rest of the pack.
Exactly! I hate how theyre shoving "action-packed!" in every single thing that it just feels like theyre shoving it down our throats -.- Couldnt they at least talk about something else? I thought action packd combat was great! The first 10 times I heard it but then every single interview its "Action packed this action packed that did we mension that this game is an actionpacked game???" UGH!
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In 2012 when these 4 major players release they will all have decent initial success due to the PR machines blasting in our ears throughout this year, my guess is:
TOR will without a doubt rake in the box sales with the big brand name and loved developer leading the way and will be a fun game in the short run with an excellent storyline but the stale gameplay will likely grow old to many fast but the game in all likelyhood will still be a major success...
GW2 will also rake in the box sales and continue to make box sales when the others are winding down, this game is the no brainer pick for success as it brings some new innovation to a stale genre and is a B2P game by a trusted developer so every gamer will want it even if its just their side game..mega success here if the game catches fire..
TSW if there is a way for funcom to fudge it they will, i have my eyes all over this game but it is my early favorite to be the biggest flop of 2012 but stay tuned to see if they can make a comeback in 2014 after the bugs are fixed and the game goes freemium..
TERA when things start falling off in TOR and TSW both TERA and GW2 will be the major benifactors i believe this game has a lot of potential but could get buried by the others early on but will have moderate success regardless...
ARCHEAGE though the western version wont likely make it into the 2012 fray if it could prove to hurt everyones bottomline if it does, this game has a lot of potential..
SWTOR for sure...a gazillion players in the first 3 months, crickets after that...
Thats not a negative prediction! Crickets after the 1st or 2nd month will be better!
Originally posted by Zeroxin
The Mayan calendar didn't actually end in 2012 but actually 2011. The world ends and we never get to see what happens to these games.
What? I thought you said you wanted a negative prediction?
Lawl! XD
^_^
o.o
O.O
>.<
-.-
Ugh...Does this mean Ill die without ever having to finish college? FAIL! !@#$ you system and !@#$ you armageddon!
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Out of all of these the only one I see has having the potiental of a major flop is Tera if we only count US subscribers. A combination of it being way too Eastern and a ridiculously long localization time that could potentially throw it into a mass of big name competitors (GW2, SW:TOR, TSW) could prevent this from catching on. That said I doubt it will "flop", I don't think any of these games on the list will flop. They might not meet expectations (I see SW:TOR especially disappointing a lot of people), but they aren't going to flop, just like Age of Conan couldn't really be considered a flop. Archeage may suffer similar problems, but I think it has enough sandbox elements to be a cult classic amongst the sandbox crowd (especially with CCP losing loads of fans and not many good sandbox options left).
FFXIV is still struggling and I'm pretty sure that game is either going to go F2P or be a huge flop for Square Enix, so if we still count titles from last year I see FFXIV as being the biggest flop this year. Expecting a continuing loss of subscribers and SE is attempting to revamp many systems which could also cause many of their current subscribers to leave too. I don't see much chance of it recovering, it's just not a good MMO.
I realize this thread is suppose to be negative, but I just don't see any of these being flops. 2011 (and 12) is going to be a big year for MMOs with lots of great options for fans of the genre. Even if a few companies somehow manage a colossal screw up (which from the looks of all the games currently, isn't going to happen) I think the new elements they are bringing to the genre are going to keep them retaining a reasonable number of subscribers.
This whole site is a negativity thread. Who cares about mine, his/her, your opinion. Let people play the game. That is the main reason the mmo genre is so iffy. Constant "WoW, clone! WoW, clone! CoD is a WoW clone because it has classes! WoW clone!"
If you don't think it's that bad then just keep reading.
TERA when things start falling off in TOR and TSW both TERA and GW2 will be the major benifactors i believe this game has a lot of potential but could get buried by the others early on but will have moderate success regardless...
If I were in the true spirit of negativity, I would guess that TERA would be one of our first flops. After people thoroughly game the political system and turn griefing onto an entire new level. ξ
Hellgate London reduex or the APB reduex. One or both of those or the LOTRO expansion Isenguard. The rest of the games will make big enough box sales to stay afloat by inertia for at least six months.
"Gypsies, tramps, and thieves, we were called by the Admin of the site . . . "
Hellgate London reduex or the APB reduex. One or both of those or the LOTRO expansion Isenguard. The rest of the games will make big enough box sales to stay afloat by inertia for at least six months.
Why LOTRO's expansion?
I'm not as attentive to LOTRO, but they seemed to be doing alright with what they have. ξ
If had to pick one, than it would be Tera, as someone said with the political system. With the ability to be anonymous, people will show their true colors and make it their mission to ruin other people's fun as fully and totally they can, oh and hearing that it didn't so hot in Korea and since the Eastern games havent done so well in the West, it not doing well at their target demographic, I question if it will flop. Still, im not psychic, so I don't know which will flop.
Comments
I think that the most realistic expectation is that nothing very major will happen. Eve will lose players and profits, WoW will slightly decrease in numbers. SWTOR will do great initial sales, then turn around into an average game with moderate profits. GW2 will do well, but not be nearly as earth-shattering as many would hope. Tera won't do very well, but will have a viable NA playerbase, so I don't think it will fail. Rift will start losing numbers but the longer it lasts the more attractive it is for some to try, so they really need to up the scale of their endgame before they'll keep people long term.
The real negative problem that we are going to see, is the rise in the number of complainers, whiners and naysayers. I myself am going to rant about things that don't suit my personal tastes, as will many, many more. There are alot of games to choose from, so either the game producers get it right, or we're going to bitch and moan about it. Back in the day when there wasn't so many games to choose from, it was all about what your favorite game did right, and things had a positive feel. Now, things are all about how these companies screw up, and so many reveiws are negative. It's going to get worse. I have seen a vision of the end my brothers, and it has more whine then a 78 Ford with a loose fanbelt, and less cognitive thought then an episode of Jerry Springer!
All of my posts are either intelligent, thought provoking, funny, satirical, sarcastic or intentionally disrespectful. Take your pick.
I get banned in the forums for games I love, so lets see if I do better in the forums for games I hate.
I enjoy the serenity of not caring what your opinion is.
I don't hate much, but I hate Apple© with a passion. If Steve Jobs was alive, I would punch him in the face.
Seconded.
Don't get me wrong, I think TOR will be a good game. Note I said good game, not good MMORPG. If the primary feature of your MMORPG is a heavily scripted story, then why make it an MMORPG?
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
SW:TOR - I expect to sell alot of boxes. Then after everyone has played through the story line with 5 alts they will find there is nothing left to do but grind instances just like the other EQ clones. I expect it's numbers to drop very low after only a few months. While I think they will make their money from it, I prediect it will be a flop in the eyes of gamers.
GW2: I predict will start out much slower than SW, however I think it's dynamic content will draw in more and more players and keep them entertained for a long time. I predict that GW2 will be a success to gamers and will set a new standard for Themepark content and re-kindle some of that "world impacting" sandbox ideaology.
TSW: Too soon to tell, but I predict it's theme will draw in players, but it's heavily instanced and repetetive gameplay wont keep people for long.
AA: I predict will not be openly welcomed by non-Asian players but will appeal to the sandbox croud and prove that a hybrid can work. I think it will remind people that being able to sail the seas, have FFA PVP, and siege warfare CAN work and still appeal to the casuals and PVEers.
EVE (CCP): I don't think the item mall is going to continue to be a problem. My prediction is that the hardcores will play it for years to come but the pop will slowly fall off to newer games and I think that Dust 514 will not be as amazing as people think because it's PS exclusive. Eve was raised and nurtured by PC gamers and now the new bells and whistles will be off limits to them???
Let's see:
1. SWTOR - people who have hard-ons for lightsabers will play it, everyone else will hit the level cap and roll an alt and be bored within the first month. Unless there are glaring bugs or lack of content, I see it being as successful as Rift.
2. GW2 - People are going to be shocked at how casual friendly it will be. Also, it's not going to be the second coming of Christ that everyone expects it to be. GW2's hype is bonkers.
3. EVE - If players actually leave and not just talk about it, then EVE will die. Only because EVE can't attract new customers, the only people who play it are people who enjoy one of the most boring snorefests to be known as a "game". CCP should count their lucky stars that anyone continues to play "Excel in Space" at all.
4. WoW - Will continue it's slow decline (and still make retarded amounts of money).
5. Tera - See Aion.
6. Diablo 3 - Will be awesome. Wait, I have to be negative . . . it will be terribly awesome.
TOR never claimed to revolutionize the MMO-genre. Bioware stated the combat mechanics (WoW, Trinity Gameplay, Hotkey) most MMO's currently have are fine and that they want to add their own speciality to it: Story. They pretty much claim to take the good parts of the gorilla in the corner and add their own special touch to it.
That you put GW2 on this list was extremely painful to see. The developers and owners even stated in several interviews that they believe you should not try to copy the succes of another game, but design your own thing that works. Comparing GW2 with WoW merely means you have not read up on GW2 or WoW at all. Let's take a quick look at a few of the core mechanics of both games. WoW uses quests, you talk to a questgiver, he gives you a quest in the form of text and you accept the quest and go kill those ten orcs across the map before returning to the questgiver and claiming your reward. In Guildwars 2 you arrive at a village and notice that it is under attack and if you don't intervene the village will burn down to the ground and you can't interact with it anymore until you rebuild or reclaim it. To sum it up, questing in WoW is textual and static and questing in GW2 is visual and dynamic. WoW has two factions (Horde/Alliance), GW2 has no factions. This means that there is no open-world PvP, but you can argue that WoW has no open world PvP either because of flying mounts and little effect of being killed by another player. GW2 has no mounts and especially no flying mounts, this means the world feels far more massive and alive. I have nothing against flightpaths and scripted flying quests, but your own flying mount is terrible. If this wasn't enough to convince you that WoW and GW2 are nothing alike then these might convince you.
GW2 vs WoW: Differences
Buy to Play vs Pay to Play
Painterly Graphics vs Cartoony Graphics
Dynamic Events vs Questing / Raiding
Personal Story vs NOTHING
Any Role vs Trinity Gameplay
Lots of Voice Acting vs Occassional Voice Acting
Unique Underwater Combat vs Regular Combat Underwater
Instant Waypoints vs Flightpaths / Portals
Lesser focus on Gear vs Gear Progression Path
GW2 vs WoW: Similarities
MMORPG vs MMORPG
Storymode Dungeons / Explorable Dungeons vs Normal Dungeons / Heroic Dungeons
Open Explorable World vs Open Explorable World
High level of Polish vs High Level of Polish
High Quality vs High Quality
Epic soundtrack vs Epic Soundtrack
Unique Races / Capitals vs Unique Races / Capitals
Arena PvP vs Arena PvP
My vote is that TOR will be the biggest flop simply because the size of the budget sunk in it, combined with the level of hype surrounding combined with the expectations surrounding both the developer and the IP means it will have a much higher bar then the typical MMO needs to meet in order to be a "success".
I think EA/Bioware/LA are anticpating that they get 1 million plus suscribers from it. My perdiction is that they do well in initial box sales but 6 month's from release end up with between 200K-400K subscribers. Note, that should be considered a reasonable success by the standards of a typical AAA MMO but due to the hyper-inflated budget and expectations for TOR will be considered a failure.
I think TOR will be a reasonably well put together game but really won't bring all that much compelling in terms of long term play for MMO gamers....and I think some of the things Bioware are going to try to pull in from the SPRPG's they are so fameous for making won't translate very well to the MMO format.
The 2 games I'm keeping my eye's on that have the potential to do great things are GW2 and TSW. But we'll see if they can actually pull it off or not.
GW1 was not an MMO. Nor was it high budget or anywhere AAA. The difference with GW2 is that it has a budget on the level of AAA MMOs such as WoW and TOR etc... And it's actually an MMO.
GW2 also has a lot of 'revolutionary' things going for it, such as no traditional quests, no trinity, WvWvW PvP etc... (Not necessarily 'revolutionary', but different from the WoW or EQ formula, which TOR is sticking to). The only reason why WoW changed the face of MMOs was because it was polished and was an MMO that was very user-friendly and convenient, which was rare back then.
The biggest thing TOR has going for it is it's fanbase. Bioware + StarWars is guarenteed to make the game sell massively upon release. But as for the game itself, I don't think it's too far off from RIFT tried to achieve; a polished game that remains mostly the same as it's predecessors.
SWTOR definetly.
My prediction is it will sell around 2 Million copies but after few months the subscription base will drop to around 300K
Good numbers I hear you say.............
Not if you spend $100 Million on a game
Guild Wars 2 - impossible for it to live up to expectations. People are hyping it up to some kind of MMO Jesus.
Definitely wont fail but expect huge backlash.
The Old Republic - typical prejudice campaign which is already in full effect. People bashing it endlessly for reasons that are not related to the quality of the game(ie published by EA, single player, theme park etc).
TOR will sell and sell very well but however many copies it sells likely wont be enough for people to call it a success.
Tera - another prejudice campaign which is just starting. The Korean version launched way too early has suffered for it, has also given people here free reign to mindlessly bash it with little to no actual information.
Most likely a sleeper hit. Wont be a big seller like GW2 or TOR but steady climb.
This is what I think would cause the game to flop.
TOR - Game releases with huge box sales. Within the first few levels, everyone finds out that all the areas on a planet are extremely tiny buildings that are copied and pasted every 5 feet and are inside instances ala DA2. People don't even stick around for a free month.
GW2 - People find out that DE aren't really dynamic at all since it's always one of two endings for that "event" at that time. MTs become huge with additional skills, armor, and "trigger items" for additonal DEs.
AA - Is your normal FFA full loot Sandbox that pulls down a huge 10,000 players because of that.
TSW - The first 10 levels are the greatest game ever created. Past that was never tested and is the worst game ever created.
Ok I lol'd xD
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( o.o)
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**This bunny was cloned from bunnies belonging to Gobla and is part of the Quizzical Fanclub and the The Marvelously Meowhead Fan Club**
TOR...the most expensive game ever made. Bioware is trying to act like TOR is the next WoW. Not going to happen. Even if they sell one-million plus copies they won't get close to their supposed compeition.
The only ones that I think will fail hard are Tera and maybe TSW, although, I hope TSW does well. Bluehole is pushing way too hard on the "action-packed combat." Combat is one of the things I care about least in an MMO. I have worries about TSW because it's a Funcom game, but at least they're doing things differently from the rest of the pack.
Exactly! I hate how theyre shoving "action-packed!" in every single thing that it just feels like theyre shoving it down our throats -.- Couldnt they at least talk about something else? I thought action packd combat was great! The first 10 times I heard it but then every single interview its "Action packed this action packed that did we mension that this game is an actionpacked game???" UGH!
''/\/\'' Posted using Iphone bunni
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**This bunny was cloned from bunnies belonging to Gobla and is part of the Quizzical Fanclub and the The Marvelously Meowhead Fan Club**
In 2012 when these 4 major players release they will all have decent initial success due to the PR machines blasting in our ears throughout this year, my guess is:
TOR will without a doubt rake in the box sales with the big brand name and loved developer leading the way and will be a fun game in the short run with an excellent storyline but the stale gameplay will likely grow old to many fast but the game in all likelyhood will still be a major success...
GW2 will also rake in the box sales and continue to make box sales when the others are winding down, this game is the no brainer pick for success as it brings some new innovation to a stale genre and is a B2P game by a trusted developer so every gamer will want it even if its just their side game..mega success here if the game catches fire..
TSW if there is a way for funcom to fudge it they will, i have my eyes all over this game but it is my early favorite to be the biggest flop of 2012 but stay tuned to see if they can make a comeback in 2014 after the bugs are fixed and the game goes freemium..
TERA when things start falling off in TOR and TSW both TERA and GW2 will be the major benifactors i believe this game has a lot of potential but could get buried by the others early on but will have moderate success regardless...
ARCHEAGE though the western version wont likely make it into the 2012 fray if it could prove to hurt everyones bottomline if it does, this game has a lot of potential..
Playing GW2..
Going to have to agree with this too.
SWTOR for sure...a gazillion players in the first 3 months, crickets after that...
The Mayan calendar didn't actually end in 2012 but actually 2011. The world ends and we never get to see what happens to these games.
What? I thought you said you wanted a negative prediction?
This is not a game.
Thats not a negative prediction! Crickets after the 1st or 2nd month will be better!
Lawl! XD
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Ugh...Does this mean Ill die without ever having to finish college? FAIL! !@#$ you system and !@#$ you armageddon!
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**This bunny was cloned from bunnies belonging to Gobla and is part of the Quizzical Fanclub and the The Marvelously Meowhead Fan Club**
Out of all of these the only one I see has having the potiental of a major flop is Tera if we only count US subscribers. A combination of it being way too Eastern and a ridiculously long localization time that could potentially throw it into a mass of big name competitors (GW2, SW:TOR, TSW) could prevent this from catching on. That said I doubt it will "flop", I don't think any of these games on the list will flop. They might not meet expectations (I see SW:TOR especially disappointing a lot of people), but they aren't going to flop, just like Age of Conan couldn't really be considered a flop. Archeage may suffer similar problems, but I think it has enough sandbox elements to be a cult classic amongst the sandbox crowd (especially with CCP losing loads of fans and not many good sandbox options left).
FFXIV is still struggling and I'm pretty sure that game is either going to go F2P or be a huge flop for Square Enix, so if we still count titles from last year I see FFXIV as being the biggest flop this year. Expecting a continuing loss of subscribers and SE is attempting to revamp many systems which could also cause many of their current subscribers to leave too. I don't see much chance of it recovering, it's just not a good MMO.
I realize this thread is suppose to be negative, but I just don't see any of these being flops. 2011 (and 12) is going to be a big year for MMOs with lots of great options for fans of the genre. Even if a few companies somehow manage a colossal screw up (which from the looks of all the games currently, isn't going to happen) I think the new elements they are bringing to the genre are going to keep them retaining a reasonable number of subscribers.
This whole site is a negativity thread. Who cares about mine, his/her, your opinion. Let people play the game. That is the main reason the mmo genre is so iffy. Constant "WoW, clone! WoW, clone! CoD is a WoW clone because it has classes! WoW clone!"
If you don't think it's that bad then just keep reading.
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If I were in the true spirit of negativity, I would guess that TERA would be one of our first flops. After people thoroughly game the political system and turn griefing onto an entire new level. ξ
Hellgate London reduex or the APB reduex. One or both of those or the LOTRO expansion Isenguard. The rest of the games will make big enough box sales to stay afloat by inertia for at least six months.
"Gypsies, tramps, and thieves, we were called by the Admin of the site . . . "
Why LOTRO's expansion?
I'm not as attentive to LOTRO, but they seemed to be doing alright with what they have. ξ
If had to pick one, than it would be Tera, as someone said with the political system. With the ability to be anonymous, people will show their true colors and make it their mission to ruin other people's fun as fully and totally they can, oh and hearing that it didn't so hot in Korea and since the Eastern games havent done so well in the West, it not doing well at their target demographic, I question if it will flop. Still, im not psychic, so I don't know which will flop.