Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
TSW and the Betting Pool on length of P2P....
akiira69
Member UncommonPosts: 615
With FunCom virtually 0 for 2 on keeping their MMO's pay 2 play(Anarchy Online and Age of Conan: Unchained) I am starting a small free and fun little betting pool on how long The Secret World will remain as a pay to play game. The Winner will recieve free cheesecakes to be delivered by lawn gnomes in neon pink dresses.(jk since no currency is used in this pool there is no pot to when i would just like to see how long you all think it will take for FunCom to make this game F2P)
"Possibly we humans can exist without actually having to fight. But many of us have chosen to fight. For what reason? To protect something? Protect what? Ourselves? The future? If we kill people to protect ourselves and this future, then what sort of future is it, and what will we have become? There is no future for those who have died. And what of those who did the killing? Is happiness to be found in a future that is grasped with blood stained hands? Is that the truth?"
Comments
It's their product. They can do what they want with it when they want to. If I don't like it. I wont use it.
Well , many players are beggining to think that it will go F2P quite fast. Introduction of cash shop just had strenghten that opinions , as it will be very easy to do that , much less investemnt needed for that shift ,etc as the "infrastructure" for P2P->F2P shift will be already there since day 1.
I give them 2 scenarios:
a) game is relative success ,it stays P2P for first 12 months , during this first year item shop slowly but gradually expands becoming more and more influential step by step. This is starting to get faster pace at the end of first year and P2P -> F2P shift happens somewhere between 12-18 months since release.
b) game initial sales, reception is worse than anticipated by Funcom. Amount of people leaving after first "free" month or after 2-3 months is relatively high. Item shop expands quite fast in order to gather as much revenue as possible to pay off game investments, loans and providde money to investors. Shift from P2P -> F2P , happens somewhere at 9-12 months since release.
My bet would be on option B
Funcom are not known for making a quality product so I reckon alot of players will be waiting a month or two to see if TSW is another Age of Conan and along with two huge MMO's such as SW:ToR and GW2 coming out at the end of 2011 and first quarter of 2012.
Anarchy online is P2P you only get classic section as F2P. If TSW after completing its 7 year run like Anarchy online turn F2P well great for them.
AOC was very very late going F2P... been live for 3 years, but with sub 100k subscribers for 2.5 years. It really hurt the game to have so low populations on servers. I think the F2P craze is over though. LOTRO and DDO have done fine with it, but with EQ2 it has made no difference.. and from the looks of the AOC server populations, they are basically back to where they were before F2P. Funcom had a nice gimmick though where they released a new hardcore pvp server and at the same time allowed players to buy epic endgame pvp gear from the cashshop... that was good for a 1-month lottery, but it also doomed that server. Nobody wants to play on a pvp server when you have 20 people in epic pvp gear crushing you while you are trying to level.
My guess is that TSW hopes to be P2P, but is being built with F2P in mind. Expect overpowered gear to be offered in the cash-shop as soon as subscriptions don´t take off.
1. Game will have the usual abysmal launch with bugs and incomplete or non existing features promised in their marketing hype.
2. After 3-6 Months the retention rate is so low and the bugs so overwhelming, the item shop will start giving out free exp potions and other game changing items as part of the subscription for no extra charge.
3. After 6-12 months in another desperate move to save the game a first expansion is release through the item shop and the game goes full F2P. Still riddled with bug and missing features the game gets an initial surge of new players but will eventually fade away in 2-3 years.
4. Funcom announces it's retirement from the MMO genre. AO, AoC and TSW shut down servers. MMO players across the globe celebrate this historic moment.
Sounds to me more like wishful thinking by someone who has no interest at all in playing TSW and heavily dislikes FC and everything related to it
Clearly, TSW is not your game, I'd suggest you move on to a game you like, if there really is an MMORPG you're still able to enjoy.
@OP: if they start as a P2P game, they'll stay at least a year a P2P game, after that I guess it depends upon how they've been doing so far. There's a lot of competition coming next year.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Can't have a bit of fun here. I merely answered the OP question.
I have said it many times before, i am very interested in TSW since it has a new scenario away from high fantasy. However, that does not however mean i am loosing my ability to rationally judge FC by its track record.
Looking at it objectively the chances of another disaster are very high. FC is 2 for 2 so far in the screwup department.
You are a smart person judging from your posts, i am sure you are aware of all this.
? You sounded dead serious, there was no difference in tone between your post I replied upon and your normal posting.
As for FC and TSW, you're right, I'm pretty objective in it and able to speculate without being hindered by a checkered past or a trauma because of some game launch, as some people apparently walk around with. This leaves me to judge AoC and FC in a more neutral, balanced way, as well as TSW.
So, from that viewpoint, your speculations still sound way off, but hey, you're entitled to believe whatever you want to believe.
Personally, looking at the persons involved and the pre-launch trajectory so far, I doubt that TSW's launch will be as hindered as AoC's one was, nor do I expect Tornquist and his team to be like Gaute when it comes to vision, features promised and realisation of that vision. In fact, I believe that if Gaute and his team didn't have to launch too early and rushed (which may be due to financial/investor issues) but launched 0.5-1 year later, AoC'd have been a lot closer to his original vision as well.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
my point of view first 2 mounth stay far away from TSW see history with AoC release ... after that search review ... read forum & see how thing goo on ... if u'r nouse smell think are ok try it if not get back to waiting
or search other mmo or houpe beter game will be release 
this game in 1 year max 1 year half will goo on type buy to play +shop item then after 6 month will goo to free to play +shop item ...
if u will look beter on how goo atm most mmo game industry market u will discover is a trend with buy 2 play + item shop or free 2 play + item shop metod, what is perfect to understand: ppls they are sick pay for what usual are relese with ton's bugs, ppls are busy to survive in actual economic war, ppls was jump from pionerate time on experience time with mmo industrie & expectation are higher, ppls don''t have to much time to spend & they not want to pay for 1 month & play 1 wek, list i gues can goo on ...
about this is lot's debaite of how will goo thing on official forum
http://www.darkdemonscrygaia.com/showthread.php?t=20339
Regarding new details on The Secret World's planned business model topic start by Tarib Senior Community Manager
salute & honor
It seems to me f2p wouldnt work for TSW. In other games they limit things, classes, races, etc.
It also seems to me f2p is a great solution for End of Life products. Keeps the servers up for those that still enjoy it.
That being said, I'll give it about 3 years. That seems to be the Sell By(expiry date) on most new MMOs. I think this has more to do with the audience than the quality of the product though.
There's precedence for a "classless" game being f2p. Champions Online.
They hodgepodged skill sets into templates and force you to use those unless you pay for the full range of customization options.
I just spent a little bit of time over at TSW website and watched their PAX video. It appears that the crowd they drew was quite small - the Funcom presentation area appeared to be a glorified booth. Compare that to SWTOR which had a packed auditorium, with a packed balcony.
For whatever reason, TSW world doesn't seem to be drawing a lot of interest. As a result, the game will be P2P for a year, regardless of how good or bad the game is.
As I've stated elsewhere; I'm following this title and am excited for it personally.
But,
I agree with Kien's assessment. Unless their sub is ~10 dollars and packs something more than simply access this isn't a top tier title that will compete with the Freemium / B2P lot that's coming out.
I used to play MMOs like you, but then I took an arrow to the knee.
Seems to me SWTOR will have a surge and a dropoff. But that is besides the point.
MMOs dont need massive numbers to be sustainable.
Keep in mind SWTOR is coming out much sooner than TSW and their hype-machine is in overdrive at the moment. SWTOR is constantly releasing new info, zones and gameplay details while TSW is keeping the info to really a trickle in comparasion. From a marketing perspective this is a good move, they shouldn't want to compete for attention with SWTOR at this point, much better instead for them to sit back, wait for SWTOR to blow its proverbial load, and focus next Feb and March on their own marketing blitz for their target April release date. This way they don't expend resources that would be better served filling the void left on sites like here once the anticipation, speculation and shiny newness of SWTOR has worn off.
Heh, guess whos paying that atrium ?
SWTOR is an intellectual failure already. It will make enough money i guess, but it wont be the missing link in the messed up chain of mmo evolution. No matter what, the IP is ooold. To many chieftains involved in development. To much "different but similar" and on top of that parts of the game developed by 3rd party companies. The biggest looser will be Bioware since they will ruin their reputation. Money made, soul sold
If Funcom is smart enough to remember their roots and if they are able to offer a fluid and fun gameplay + combat, then it will be a much better gaming experience then Starwars.
On topic i think it all depends on how people will attempt their content. If its well done and well accepted by the players, then i think they rather want to sell expansions and keep the ingame shop low.
LOL maybe we should start the "when is this game gonna go F2P" as soon as the games are announced. SIGH....
***readied plunger to fight the supernatural!***
All my opinions are just that..opinions. If you like my opinions..coolness.If you dont like my opinion....I really dont care.
Playing: ESO, WOT, Smite, and Marvel Heroes
I'm going to say they'll change the model approximately six months after release. The fact that it will be going toe-to-toe with heavyweights like SWTOR and GW2 is going to affect their sales dramatically. Coupled with an abysmal launch, they're going to have real trouble keeping it together. I'm only speculating on the launch. They could surprise me, but my confidence in FC being able to pull it off is pretty much nil. But it's the competition that will be the deciding factor, and it's going to be pretty damned stiff.
If they'd managed to release last year when the only thing they had to worry about was Rift or DCUO, they would have been in a much better position to overcome a poor launch and generate some ongoing fan support before the juggernauts weighed in. They won't have that luxury next year. I think they'll try to hold on as long as they can and will end up switching over, the following January.
Well as soon as games of this tier are announced at least.
I really think the idea that F2P is less than P2P in some regards to "quality" drives companies to launch like they think their on par with EQ or WoW back in their day.
When the market reality has shifted. Price point along with quality will be the only way to move more than 100k subs here and there around.
I used to play MMOs like you, but then I took an arrow to the knee.
TSW doesn't target at all the same players than WoW, SWTOR (or even GW2). They could very well do like CCP with Eve Online: find 100k-500k loyal fans of spooky/conspiracy game that would happily pay the subscriptions for years.
Paying MMO customers is the target market.
Offering something different is an attempt to bring people over from established games.
If that wasn't the strategy and they knew they'd only get 100k subs; I have a hard time thinking they'd have gotten funding on this project. In particular with the current advertising model they're using.
I used to play MMOs like you, but then I took an arrow to the knee.
Yup im one of them. They have my subscription no matter what, just for the game concept, and yh im sure it will go F2P at some point, but its gonna be awesome!
So this isn't trolling because.....?
ive played ao and aoc at launch and yes it was a shacky start with both but ive been playing ao for meny years now and gladly pay to play it and i think tsw will start out the same but they will work out the bugs fast and it will run smooth and after 2 to 3 years they will work in a ftp mode like in ao .