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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire - Part 2
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Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.
Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion, and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
I resent that. All of my comments are going to be unproductive.
Might soon be time to stop watching these threads.
SWTOR is so dead now that it's just not worth it.
It would be like measuring Vanguard on Xfire.
5/07/2012
#3 WOW 63959h
#7 TOR 15519h
#12 TERA 9039h
#14 AION 8368h
#20 EVE 4729h
#24 GW 4172h
#27 LOTRO 3540h
#50 STO 1730h
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
Yes, it's amazing how many times people come on to say no one has any interest in a thread like this.5/4/2012
#3 WOW 45585h
#8 TOR 9079h
#13 Aion 5589h
#20 TERA 3490h
#22 EVE 3291h
#24 Guild Wars 3003h
#29 LOTRO 2278h
5/07/2012
#3 WOW 63959h
#7 TOR 15519h
#12 TERA 9039h
#14 AION 8368h
#20 EVE 4729h
#24 GW 4172h
#27 LOTRO 3540h
#50 STO 1730h
It would be better if you quoted TOR hours each day or on a particular day, it is difficult to do any comparisons on every few days.Zymurgeist:
Please can you explain why it is the wrong tool for the job? You seem to have ignored all the posts that it can be used.
And remember I have answered your "it's self-selected" answer - which on what you posted invalidated most/all medical research.
Or are you just being obtrusive? Challenge the data for sure but you are being a broken record. You may as well just post:
"It is XFire it cannot be right. Ignore polte reasonable answer. Repeat assertion. It is XFire it cannot be right. Ignore polit ...."
Your demand of absolute certainity is extremely unpractical and denies the viability of most of humankind's knowledge.
Following your requirements, one could not even claim to know which direction apples fall from the trees: Even if no human has ever seen an apple falling upwards from a tree and disappearing into sky, it's mathematically possible that apples are capable of falling to any direction and all that we've seen falling from trees have fallen to same direction by coincidence.
In order to know anything meaningful about the world around us we need to accept that there's allways tiny theorethical possibility that our observations are based on chance and not representative of actual state of the world.
1.3 million subs.
So xFire showed a 75% drop in number of players while it's been a 25% (ok 24%, i just rounded up) drop in subscriptions.
That's really too much of a difference, not even good for showing trends sincs game could be stable and xFire show a 50% drop.
This is a provisional conclusion. Waiting on other opinions.
Notice that even if there is a free month it should also be reflected in xFire so that is not an excuse, IMO.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
I had my doubts the moment I saw a 2005 game like GTA:San Andreous ranked higher than newly released games like Skyrem or even the newer versions of GTA. It's interesting to follow, but should be taken with a heavy grain of salt.
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
1.3 million as of March 31st.
Would imagine if you were to take a number now it would be lower. Although I somehow doubt anywhere near 75%. Anyways, weren't these meant to simply show trends and not get into specifics?
Not that I feel you needed Xfire to see this. Seems more or less both sides have a point when it comes to arguing the validity or lack of with Xfire.
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
No; sales as at the end of April stood at 2.4 million - so that is 2.4M "subs". Have to read all the presentation stuff and compare it (carefully) to the last lot. However:
First point: on the 1st Feb EA said they had sold in excess of 2M copies. So in the Feb/Mar/April period they sold something approaching 400k.
An odd somment: As of the end of April they had 1.3M subs - OK - with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber base. Not sure I understand the reference to 'trial' players - they are not subs surely. Not sure how EA know what a 'casual' player is either.
Have to search through the Q&A; see how EA are counting subs. Remember they have given out lots of 30 days - so they are, presumably, still subs.
Edit: I am also ignoring the subs are not players debate; we don't know but early on players and subs will be pretty much one and the same thing. (Yes I know a drop in subs will lag behind a drop in players.)
What?
EA said active subscribers totaled 1.3 million at the end of the quarter — down 24% from the 1.7 million reported at the end of the December period, when the game first launched.
That's what the article says. Unless you're saying they got it wrong. Would that quarter even include the free trials? When did they start?
Anyways, their quarter ended on 3/31
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
END OF MARCH was 1.3m, I haven't managed to find the Q&A for Q4 yet.
So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?from their prepared notes for conference call:
Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars:
Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last
call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now
have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players
cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.
We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to grow subscriptions. The initial
responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community’s reaction.
In summary, we delivered an extraordinary launch of a solidly profitable long-term franchise,
which contributed to both our gross and operating margin improvements in fiscal 12. We expect
this title will further expand our margins in fiscal 13 as we get the full year benefit of subscription
revenue.
Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base
and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3
million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in
2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit
percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13.
They defined trial and casual players in the q&a as non-mmoers who were driven to try the game due to it being Star Wars. According to them the "hardcore" mmoers are still playing.
"Trial" = bought box and played 30 days and left, "Casual" = anyone else who left.1.3/1.7 = 0.764... aka 24% decline
4000ish/7000ish = 0.571ish ... aka 43ish% decline
now that's some meaningfulness rit thar i tell you what
We really need separate forums for every newly launched game. There can be the anti-<MMO> one and there can be the 'what general discussion should be' one. All the lamenting can happen together where each can find solace in like minded can't-move-on-ers leaving the rest of us to actually move forward and discuss meaningful and relevant topics.
Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.
So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).
So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.
Eh, I think not.
Subscribers will be higher than actual players, always. A portion of those not playing on March 31st are more than likely those with 90-180 timecards or subscriptions, and gave up on the game. Just like many did, myself included.
There's something you're conveniently forgetting.
Subscribers != Players
It's plain to see that actual players logging in is way lower than reported subscriber numbers.
It takes time for those subscription to drop, 30 days, 3 months, 6 months, + any free time added.
At the end of the day, a game's popularity is measured by how many people play.
Completely baseless assumptions like this do not take away from the fact that xfire is not a good indicator of actual subs. Never has been, never will be. The huge 30% discrepency proves this.
It makes a lot of those who heralded xfire as a great indicator look incredibly foolish now lol
BUT...
a huge portion of the 30% discrepency can easily be attributed to the amount of time between a person quitting the game and their subscription becoming inactive.
Again baseless assumptions as to why there is such a huge discrepency between xfire data and actual data does not change the fact their is a huge discrepency. Anyone who still takes these numbers for any worth after we have recieved concrete numbers that completely debunk their accuracy are truly grasping at straws.