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WoW's ipeeding doom
Skythe
Member Posts: 6
I am not here to give my "opinions" on the fact that WoW will someday fail... I infact found a great article, with facts, that it will happen.
http://www.grimwell.com/?action=fullnews&id=262
that is the link to it... when it talks about the charts, click the charts. The charts are very helpful!
Comments
"Based on past trends of similar styled games, World of Warcraft will not retain players the same way that Everquest and Final Fantasy XI have. I expect it will fall to somewhere between a half to a quarter of its current subscribers. This is ratio greater than that lost in Planetside and City of Heroes because I believe the "core following" is far less than the runaway success World of Warcraft has been would indicate."
Geldonyetich in his forums:
"I'm thinking more in the 75% range over the next 6 months. "
Well, that article was written in April when WoW had 1.5 million customers as of August there were over 4 million. For his prediction to be correct WoW would only have 375,000 by next month. If I were a betting man I'd like my odds. I don't think it takes Nostradamos to tell you WoW will lose customer's but all the homer's predicting it would die so soon were wrong.
no doubt that his prediction of WHEN it would happen was wrong... but this isn't about WHEN, now is it?
I hate how people think that we dont hear this kinda crap all the time. I understand you have an opinion but post on an old thread with the same topic i get tired of reading the same ol bull. That site is just some guy's opinion and really it doesnt change anything cause the other games he was talking about are still going (for example planetside and city of hero's)
So if we wanna play a game let us play it we dont need to be overwhelmed with graphs and charts that we dont care about or directed to sites were some guy goes off about how it's gonna die out we just wanna play the game and have ppl shut up about it godlee is it to much to ask that you not make threads over and over about world of warcraft we get 3 of these a week and frankly i just get bored of reading em. Do you think we dont know that people dont like the game thats somehow we cannot comprehend? Im sorry if it sounds mean man but to me this is no differnt then that broken ass english half ass poll about wow pvp. And you really cant take a neutral stand point on your agruement cause of the title of your post. Anyway man i just get tired or reading this stuff......Go play whatever it is you play.
Demoku: Anarchy Online (Rimor)
Ok, again just putting in a good article... as i said i'm not putting in my opinions... and what confuses me the most is, if you hate reading these topics over and over again... why are you still doing it? apparently you do like to read them... or at least add something to them to make yourself feel better... and since you really want to be this way, i will give my opinoin
i don't like wow as a whole... the battlegrounds are great... other then taht i don't really care about the game... i just happend across a pretty good article and felt that ppl should read it... and with your "high-and-mighty" speech about "stop saying crap about WoW, who cares if you like it or not" how are you to say that when i post something and you respond with a hypocritical attitude... don't try to lecture me with that crap when you use it to make your points
I DON'T CARE IF YOU HATE THE FACT THAT PEOPLE POST THIS STUFF... I DON'T CARE WHAT YOU THINK... I DON'T CARE WHAT OTHER PEOPLE THINK... LET ME JUST POST AN ARTICLE I THOUGHT WAS GOOD AND BE ON WITH IT.
Yeah man i understand you got an opinion but really this coulda been posted in the general section. I understand you have an opinion and i may not like it as much as the next guy but im not gonna go on thier boards and post crap because i dont like it no matter how well the article is written. There isnt any hypocritical attitude i just told you that we get tired of this crap. i went to the site i read it and that was my opinion *gasp* just kinda like what you just did.
I could care less if you type in caps if thats what makes you feel better... go ahead and sit around for my post to go up on the boards so you can post back to if you want man if thats what makes you feel good. Hell yeah i put somthing in to these anti wow posts cause i dont wanna read this shit( im sure others feel the same way) and if i dont tell you then you wont know will you??But as for it making me feel better about myself naa i dont care if you like the game or not just let the poeple play it tho dont come in here with this crap... Do you think we havent heard this stuff before? or seen charts use your search button before you post maybe look up what your posting about?? I didnt use any points in my post just opinions no high and mighty crap ther i just said let them play who cares and compared it to the pvp poll wich was funny as hell cause he was like "i dont like the pvp in wow it suck" i got a good laugh out of it.
Whatever im really not feeling up to sitting here argueing with you over nothing Cause you made the post to stur up shit and are sitting there waiting for someone to post so you can talk crap back. Hey man whatever floats your boat. Its cool if you dont care... shit after i post here im gonna forget about this tread to. And the article was boring as hell man. you just draw to many conclusions and get yourself all worked up over nothing calm down breathe and go play your game. Maybe when you look at my post and actually read it instead of drawing conclusions youl see that it wasnt all high and mighty but more matter of factly. Maybe..........ah its usless im bored with you. you have a good day maybe you should go look up tanktastic you guys would get along well...
Demoku: Anarchy Online (Rimor)
you honestly think ppl sit around waiting to talk crap... no i was just wanting to share an article i thought was good... and as usual ppl like you show up thinking i'm "bashing" which is utter bull. I posted it here becuase this is the general section of WoW... you know they are split up into sections so it's easier for ppl to find... what is the point of posting something about WoW (or any other game) in the general discussion for the whole website if there is a nicely made catagory for it... if you don't like it tough... I'm sure the creators of this site didn't want me posting WoW stuff on the general when they took time to make a WoW discussion area.... and as for the idea you have in your head about ppl sitting around waiting for posts... didn't you realize that people stay online after doing something... i know it's a hard concept to grasp but it's true. And seeing as i started this post i get the email everytime someone posts... therefore when i get time i will come back to respond... not that it matters.... becuase all you will do is complain like a child would. And that is fine... if that is what you like to do then do it. Just let me post what I feel I should post, as you will post what you feel you should.
what is with people!? you can never post something in the idea of hey... this is a good article (or w/e) i think other ppl should have the chance to read it (or w/e)... without getting ppl like you... it just plain irritating. grow up learn how to actually respond to a "discussion" Yes a discussion... not a chat room... not an argument... a discussion... w/e all i wanted to do with this was let people read the article and if they felt like it, do the poll... in fact i didn't really want people to respond (esp. with the kinda of crap you brought into this)
What a complete clueless dork... And being that clueless, I am pretty sure he is not a game developer himself, so why the poop is he envious of a game company? Not like they are a threat to him.
Just a case of wanting to flaunt his stupidity...
Oh and someone above said "Its not a question of "when", is it" No of course not! He can be right... in about ten years time! Maybe twenty years time.. How stupid are you, of course time is important. He is completly off, have no idea and you think thats great... Says a lot about you, NOTHING about WoW.
You are just a troll.. and I just trolled you back.
"This is not a game to be tossed aside lightly.
It should be thrown with great force"
Having 500k subscribers with an average retention rate of 2-4 months = Failed MMOG (from a gamers point of view).
Having 60k subscribers with 50% of them being 2.5 year old veterans = Successful MMOG.
WoW will not fail because the marketing behind it and the label of Blizzard will carry on bringing new subscribers to keep it economically healthy. Does this mean it's a good game? No, in my opinion.
A good MMOG is a game that will keep you going with the same lust from day one up to the endgame and then some.
I don't care if ONE DAY it will fail or not. I have other MMORPGs I can easily replace it with. But until it actually does fail, the game is so much fun to play, they keep adding more and more free content every month, and they keep getting better!!!
Can you believe patch 1.7 WAS AMAZING???? OMG!!!!! The first patch Blizzard releases and the game is RUNNING!!!! Zul Gurab isn't BUGGY!!! Arathi Basin isn't BUGGY!!!! They work! I played all night last tuesday, I played all night yesterday! Let's see if they can go 3 nights in a row without server shut downs!
All in all, Blizzard is heading in a good direction at keeping WoW alive. If it dies, so be it... DaoC here I come! Dungeons & Dragons Online here I come! Lord of the Rings Online here I come! But I won't switch if WoW still kicks ass with at least 1 million subscribers!
___________ ___ __ _ _ _
Stealth - Ambush - Hemorrhage - Sinister Strike x2 - Cold Blood - Eviscerate - Vanish - Preparation - Cold Blood - Ambush - ... you're dead! :P
I'm not here to give my "opinions" on the fact that if you search the internet hard enough you can find someone who says <whatever you want to beleive the truth is>.
For example:
The world will end by 2010 - http://www.religioustolerance.org/end_wrl1.htm
EQ2 is the best game ever - http://www.ferrago.com/story/4688
The Earth is actually flat - http://www.alaska.net/~clund/e_djublonskopf/Flatearthsociety.htm
I could go on an on with examples, but the point is anybody with too much time on their hands can put up a web site with any "facts" they care to make up.
If Blizzard closed up shop tomorro and shut down every server, WOW is probably the most succesful and profitable MMORPG of all time and it hasn't even been out a year=) We'll have to see what happens when another new BIG MMORPG comes out. Some customers will leave of course, but the difference is, Blizzard has made so much profit already, the suits up top really would'nt care one little bit. It won't be crushing like when other MMORPGs just lose most of their playerbase. So what if Blizzard loses 2 Million subscibers? Some will be gone from the genre for good. Others will try something different. The only 2 games which might have any chance of stealing away any siginifcant portion would have to also appeal to most of the players base. Those 2 games will be DDO and LOTR. Even after peopel leave, WOW will still have more players than most other MMOGs combined. Vanguard, D&L and Darkfall aren't going to make a dent because they're too traditional or too hardcore. When people realize how slow or unplayable they are, they'll come back. Knowing Blizzard, they'll have an expansion all lined up ready to go, right when the newer MMORPGs are ready to release.
For me, since I can't imagine playing 1 game for years, the fact that I've been playing for 10 months means WOW has been the most sucessful MMORPG for me, since its kept me playing the longest. All the others died for me in beta, the first month or at around the 5 month mark. I've played WOW 2X as long. Thats more than enough for me.
That article reads like someone predicting the world will blow up "someday" eventually. Duh. Not knowing when means you don't know at all. I'll grow old "someday" too. That doesn't make me smarter then anyone else=) Its good to have an opinion, but sometimes an opinion without enough to back it up doesn't have any weight.
Let's see here,
Wasn't starcraft a top ten seller for like 4 years straight or something of that magnitude. When I first did research on buying WoW I noticed that it claimed to have 3.5 million subscribers and now it claims to have 4 million just a month later.
To the person who posted 60k subscriber list for 2.5 years = successful RPG. I disagree with that statement for a number of reasons.
1. WoW was made to attract people more so than keep them and Blizzard's goal was to make a crapload of money.
2. Let's do the math here let's say that game with 60k subscribers cost $20 per month, so you have 60,000 people x 30 months x $20 = 36 million in 2.5 years or approximately 1.2 million per month.
I'll evaluate WoW on just one month of business. 4,000,000 x 15 = 60 million in a one month period. That is a 50x magnitude. Perhaps the game that held people for 2.5 years may be the more involved game but to only have 60k people compared to a million means you are probably appealing to a fringe group.
Based on the longevity of Blizzard games and the fact that they actually seem to give a damn about WoW and actually add new patches and materials and if you haven't noticed on your server they are about to unveil their expansion in about 6 weeks. I think WoW will probably reach 5 million subscribers soon and hold a similar number for quite a few months.
Cryomatrix
You can see my sci-fi/WW2 book recommendations.
"To the person who posted 60k subscriber list for 2.5 years = successful RPG. I disagree with that statement for a number of reasons."
This was irony and meant the exact opposite:
Gamers judge a game's success by how long it lives and not by how much money it makes. But actually sucessful games are normally measured by their profits.
As for WoW's longevity I don't see any reason why it should fail sooner than "old school MMOs". WoW's customer base is made of people who don't play 24/7. For that reason they will take much longer to fully explore the game than an EQ gamer will in EQ.
A few months ago I might have agreed that WoW gamers might wander off at some point soon but the devs have greatly increased the speed at which content gets added. If they sustain that (=a content patch every 2 months) until the expansion is released, this game will live for as long as they wish.
Wow has made more money in it's short time than most mmo's do in 3 years or more. This gives Blizzard the funds to continue even if the game goes bad. But I don't it will do that since they have started to add content steadily now, it's one hell of a fun game to play, expasion planned. It will still be going strong in 2 years. Not 4 million subscribers, but a decent number like 1.5 million I guess.
As ana vid MMORPG gamer, I cannot see anything current or on the Horizon (no pun intended) that is going to knock it off it's #1 rank. EQ2's problem is that it tried to be something different than EQ1 but was forced back to EQ1 rules by its player base. WoW is what game players want and Blizzard knows that. It can be whatever you want it to be, casual, hard core etc.
Also there are pretty much always 40k plus people on the Euro realm of diablo2 LoD, considering that game is what, 6 years old? Thats an amazing number that beats most of todays MMO's, add the US and Asia realms and there are probably 150k People playing Diablo2 at any given time, only a handful of games in the world can claim thoose numbers, and Blizzard have created TWO of them!
He got one thing rigth though, Blizz did not get these numbers on dumb luck, it is obvious they know how to make people want to play these things.
Yes they are simple and fast paced and with very little depth, and obviously that is what people WANT rigth now.
You can say what you will about Blizz and their games but believeing anything then WoW being pretty damn huge even 5 years from now is bloody naive and ignorant, they know what they are doing.
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Originally posted by Jerek_
I wonder if you honestly even believe what you type, or if you live in a made up world of facts.
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Just a second- many things wrong with this article.
What's ironic is, they dont. If any of you clicked his links, what he called "At number 3 we have World of Warcraft, still very young and on its initial box sale spike much like Planetside and City of Heroes before it."There is a difference. Look at the charts, look at Lineage and World of Warcraft. World of Warcraft's release was around January in Korea. Look at Lineage 2's population from that date. Lineage drops MAJORLY and World of Warcraft doesnt drop any, in fact, it reaches Lineage's line. This could mean many things, but the most obvious is this: World of Warcraft stole from Lineage's population. Lineage has had slight falls, but it always rose higher and higher. When World of Warcraft comes out, Lineage falls and World of Warcraft rises at tremendous rates. In fact, he called World of Warcraft #3. Look closely, the square that represents World of Warcraft is a tad higher on the line than Lineage.
Now, he compared the sales burst to City of Heroes and Planetside. Let's take a look at those...
http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart3_files/Subscriptions_12180_image001.gif the 0-120,000 chart. Notice Planetside doesnt break 120,000 subscribers. It's "sales burst", as the author calls it, lasts a little less than half a year before it declines. Also- the release of PlanetSide didn't seem to threaten the population on the games with a higher population. The ones that seem to drop at it's release are ShadowBane, A Tale in the Desert and Everquest OA. Everquest OA caught some attention but most Everquest players probably would rather stick to the PC version, since they were practically the same game but with a higher population and on the PC. A Tale and the Desert suffered due to it's lack of hype, and Shadowbane flopped majorly. I doubt any of this can be blamed on "Planetside" which is struggling to break the 100,000 player limit. If you plan on writing a report, I suggest not quoting this misguided author .
But lets be fair: He might've been right about City of Heroes too, right? Wrong. Let's look at that...
http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart2_files/Subscriptions_11327_image001.gif
City of Heroes is on that chart... so take a quick look...
City of Heroes is suffering the same "half a year of popularity" syndrome that Planetside suffered. World of Warcraft hasn't had a decline yet, and it's VERY CLOSE to Lineage II, which currently holds it's place as the top-played MMORPG. It's quick burst doesnt seem to be a burst, it's an atom bomb. The fact that it's beaten Lineage, which was the top MMORPG until WoW's release in Korea is phenominal within itself. It's about to reach the top of the charts, as even Lineage II's slope is starting to smooth out compared to WoW's long slop. But I ramble, let's look at the damn charts...
City of Heroes isnt even grabbing a population from other MMORPGs at a noticeable rate: it's popularity seems to be grabbing people who arent currently subscribed. This assumption is due to the fact that COH's release doesnt make a steep decline in any other lines. We are judging this by where the black triangles (City of Heroes) start and where the lines start to drop around that area. There are no declines steep enough to call it a vacuum of the population due to COH's release. But COH did have a very sharp burst of success as it beat Asheron's Call in it's release.
Ok, so he was wrong about the charts- let's look at the rest...
This means that the mechanics will get old in the game and with lack of socialization, players would feel they were beating Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time over and over. Fair enough. But let's look at some games he compares it to- He didn't go into depth with this statement, but I am assuming he is either saying the charts show a different pattern of population increase or both games gain their population from their social aspects.The thesis statement of the paragraph-
1. Both games gained their population in quick bursts. Final Fantasy XI increased extraordinarily compared to other MMORPGs being released at the time. Everquest's population came in a quick burst and then rose steadily until July 2004 (around the time of WoW's beta test). That was an inaccurate statement. So maybe he was talking about social aspect? Perhaps he should have replaced Everquest or Final Fantasy with Ultima Online, a game with sucky core mechanics but a social aspect to it such as houses (that players could enter), skills that were based completely off the players (such as stealing, something that involved interaction with other players to do) and it's unique chat system which made you actually WALK UP TO THE PERSON for them to hear you. Final Fantasy XI and Everquest both use the "chat-box" function, similar to WoW's. Of course, World of Warcraft has chat bubbles too, which add a little to the socialization.
Blizzard has also designated certain servers to RP. I havent played Everquest in awhile, so I don't know if they have them, but I do know Final Fantasy XI does not. Roleplay is based SOLELY around the social function.
While World of Warcraft is not based around the socialness that Ultima Online had, it still requires basic social skills to succeed...
Which brings us to another point! World of Warcraft's socialness tends to function around a call for teamwork, much that you'll find in a game of Counter-Strike but to a much higher degree. When you start doing high-end instances that require 40 people to do, your going to have to get in with a good guild, make some friends and prove that you can work in a team. This is why people do not stand in IF or Orgrimmar looking for more people to do Molten Core. These events are planned, they know who they want to take, they know who they dont.
So, how could he compare WoW to a game that requires less social skills and then say that WoW cannot retain the players because of it's lack of social skills? People tend to associate WoW with the kiddies and the jerks because of it's simple interface. Well, trust me, to anyone that has played the game through you will know the importance of networking with other players to accomplish great tasks.
I'd like to say that his statement about Battlegrounds not helping the game much has already been disproven, as they are qued constantly and players are taking a HUGE liking to them, especially Alterac Valley and Arathi Basin (Alterac Valley is my current favorite).
So, for anyone that believed his statements, look closely at them. For those of you that want to argue, please inform me further by hitting the reply button.
And for those who think those charts could be wrong, I got them from the author, who also stated
If it's hard to determine that, then don't base your facts of them. And for the record, their pretty damn accurate.Hunters are still screwed.
Wow, was that guy ever proven wrong.
Im really getting sick of people spouting off about how WOW has 5 bilions subscibers... Untill the day that they put all these 4 million people on ONE server I could carelesss about how many people it has.. Where were all these 4 million people at when me and alot of others were LFG for hours on end complaining about how the "Meeting Stones are useless" and finding groups for all most anything was a pain in the arse and not like it was during launch. This is one Illidan and Warsong two of the most populated servers... So untill they go from there 500 servers down to one server and put all these people on one server its still is as populated as any other MMORPG out there server wise and thats all the freaking counts.
Cut the crap with the 4 millions subscibers, Blizzard tried there best at having pretty good populations on there servers and failed miserably.. And for you fanbois to say im wrong I guess you were not around during the server transfers that were enabled because blizzards commadore servers could not handle the load that other MMORPG's dont seem to have a problem with.
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You see, every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with their surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You spread to an area, and you multiply, and you multiply, until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet.-Mr.Smith
Alright. In North America there are currently 1 million subscribers. Now, look at the North American server list. Divide the number of servers by the number of subscribers to get a very vague idea, assuming that some servers DONT have more populations then others. That is North America alone, they have had to manage over 100 servers just for this continent and Everquest 2 has about 30. If every person in WoW logged on at once, you'd still only see 1/4th of that 4 million subscribers because North Americans dont see Euro servers and Europe doesnt see ours. Same goes with Asia, etc.. The goal isnt to squeeze as many people into one server so that you can get groups faster and suffer from awful lag. The battlegrounds would be qued for days straight and you could kiss the Orgrimmar or Ironforge auction house good bye. If a game has 100 players and two servers, another game has 50 players and 1 server, it wouldnt really matter which game you played because you'd run into 50 people no matter which one you picked!
I can't believe I'm having to explain that...
They closed that board down and moved to another site. That topic continued there. Here it is. OP read it and weep.
http://www.rngamers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=109
cs is anothe genre but i see something similar.
it is technically repetative w/o scrimming but if you look at CS 1.6 (more popular than Source)
it is 7 years old and still has more people playing than many MMOs. i know its not a valid arguement due to genre difference but just sasying, WoW is the CS of MMos and i dont think its going anywhere for some time.,
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