Humm.. this seems to be right on the money, This is normal decline for a game of this age
Actually, it's "normal" for games to experience that turnover decline about five-six years earlier in their history.
But a uniquely large population would logically equate to a uniquely large inertia as well.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Humm.. this seems to be right on the money, This is normal decline for a game of this age
Actually, it's "normal" for games to experience that turnover decline about five-six years earlier in their history.
But a uniquely large population would logically equate to a uniquely large inertia as well.
I completely agree. It will most likely take WOW much longer to experience the same kind of delince experienced by other P2P games. Having said that, I don't think WOW's sub pop will level again, I think it will continously decline (prob a dif rates as the years pass by).
I'm amazed that this game still has that many subscribers. I mean it's going on it's 8th anniversary this november....
There will never be another game like this in the mmorpg market that's for sure.
I'm sure that's what EQ players said.
lol EQ still going after 13 years. Sorry, but there will never be another TRUE EQ ever again. The day the WOW servers come close to the EQ subscription numbers they will just shut it down.
This game is dying. Guild Wars 2 is going to beat them in subscriptions. etc. etc.
Well, GW2 has no subs (as in P2P), so there would be no way to compare the two. The only way to compare them would be to match up both games' active playerbase.
GW2 playerbase will be a fraction of WOWs. GW2 will end up as a PVP game which is a niche crowd. I would bet a good % of GW2 players will have an active subscription in wow just for the PVE/Raiding that GW2 does not have.
Originally posted by AzurePrower This game is dying. Guild Wars 2 is going to beat them in subscriptions. etc. etc.
Well, GW2 has no subs (as in P2P), so there would be no way to compare the two. The only way to compare them would be to match up both games' active playerbase.
Glad you pointed out the fallacy of my second statement. Now see if you can figure out the fallacy in the first one.
The day the WOW servers come close to the EQ subscription numbers they will just shut it down.
Possibly. Assuming they're stupid enough to throw away a game that's still generating free cash.
Sell it to SOE, where old games go to die...except SOE ain't buyin', this time. They're dealing with a tanking economy too.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
This game is dying. Guild Wars 2 is going to beat them in subscriptions. etc. etc.
Well, GW2 has no subs (as in P2P), so there would be no way to compare the two. The only way to compare them would be to match up both games' active playerbase.
GW2 playerbase will be a fraction of WOWs. GW2 will end up as a PVP game which is a niche crowd. I would bet a good % of GW2 players will have an active subscription in wow just for the PVE/Raiding that GW2 does not have.
It will be interesting to see how the numbers match up in a couple months. I don't know about your prediction, but I think it's reasonable to believe that for now no game can equal WOW's playerbase. If WOW continues to lose players at the rate that it is currently enduring, it will be down to 5.1 million by August of next year, and 1.1 million by August 2014. Of course, I highly doubt WOW will steadily lose 1.1 million subs every 3 months (who knows), but it's current steady decline does not bode well for Blizzard's WOW.
They lost some subs, but on the forefront mists of pandaria is about to launch so that's good news, I bet they will get a few subs back there, then after about a year or so it will drop off again until the next expac then pick up a little bit. Once server technology and internet speeds are boosted, that's when you can expect to see some numbers change, that will open the floodgates again for gaming innovations on a massive scale.
You do realize that the majority of that number is non subscription. They take in a lot less. Their only subscriber base is here in the west and that is down significantly.
Diablo III has nothing to do with it either, it is a very poorly designed game and most don't play it for long, there is no point in doing so. Everything that was magical about the previous versions was left out in this one.
My guess is their revenues are at least down by half if not more.
The genre is getting much better games and Wow is aging badly, No wonder Vivendi wants to sell them, before the revenue drops too much more. They are not close to releasing their secret MMO or we would have heard about it.
Mists is going to tank too, Pandas are not a big as a draw as they might think.
Originally posted by Rockniss They lost some subs, but on the forefront mists of pandaria is about to launch so that's good news
Historically, expansions don't help save a game once sub decline has begun.
But, unique inertia, who knows. :shrug:
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
after the overwhelming public negativity for pandas Blizz has now scrapped Pandaria altogether and replaced it with "finding Nemoria"!
No, apparently pandas don't help save Asian markets declinging, so they're going to have to try the West again.
"Finding Milla Jovovich", maybe? Should have gamernerd appeal.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
"I need more characters to script for more gold because with fewer players the price is dropping. I guess I better pay a levelling service for some more characters."
Levelling service:
"I need more gold to buy gear so I can level characters up fast. Guess I better buy some gold."
It's going to happen sometime, there's no way WOW will stay the top MMO forever.
Even the analysts at Forbes are predicting trouble ahead for Activision/Blizzard mainly because the company is totally dependent on WOW as it's source of income which is now in decline.
Originally posted by AzurePrower This game is dying. Guild Wars 2 is going to beat them in subscriptions. etc. etc.
Well, GW2 has no subs (as in P2P), so there would be no way to compare the two. The only way to compare them would be to match up both games' active playerbase.
Glad you pointed out the fallacy of my second statement. Now see if you can figure out the fallacy in the first one.
That's the thing though... there's only one fallacy in your post; since GW2 has no P2P subs, it cannot beat a game (such as WOW) that does. As to the first statement, I think you were spot on; WOW is dying a very slow and painful death.
It's going to happen sometime, there's no way WOW will stay the top MMO forever.
Even the analysts at Forbes are prediction trouble ahead for Activision/Blizzard mainly because the company is totally dependent on WOW as it's source of income which is now in decline.
These overpayed analysts rly make me sick. (since all they do is just speculate, they cant tell the future !!!)
Yes, Cassandra does indeed often fail. But in theory, analysts at least make educated guesses, unlike gamers.
Want to buy a t-shirt?
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
the analysts at Forbes are predicting trouble ahead for Activision/Blizzard mainly because the company is totally dependent on WOW as it's source of income which is now in decline.
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 was the best-selling game of 2011. Today, Activision Blizzard reported its fiscal 2011 earnings report, and the success of the first-person shooter franchise helped propel the company to record profits of $1.08 billion on revenues of $4.76 billion. That's a significant improvement over 2010, when profits were $418 million on revenues of $4.45 billion.
My prediction is that MoP won't bring the numbers up as much as Blizzard and the WoW fanbois are hoping. I honestly believe that WoW is in its twilight years. Its always been a mediocre game, and the main reason that so many people would flock back to it, was to be with their WoW friends and guildies. That's not really the case anymore, I know that several of my gamer friends have settled into other games and have no plans of returning for MoP, as a matter of fact, out of several hundred friends and friends of friends (their new guilds, etc.) I've not heard of anyone who plans to return for MoP.
I'm not saying that WoW is dead, I'm just saying that the gorilla is getting old and long in the tooth. Its had its time and I just don't think that MoP will be the Fountain of Youth that fanbois are hoping it will be.
But a uniquely large population would logically equate to a uniquely large inertia as well.
I agree. The inertia is both their biggest strength - they get solid monthly revenue - but also their biggest weakness - it will be difficult to do anything else.
Blizzard is still doing well by nearly any measure - any measure, that is, except long-term growth. They have a solid game with a huge subscription base, but it is a steadily declining base. The big news of the drop in subscriptions has shown what some people have long suspected: that the boost from expansions is temporary and masks a long-term decline.
Blizzard will do fine for the next five or so years, although there likely will be more layoffs. But beyond that, they have only one real option: build another, better MMORPG. But they can't do that, because the second they start work in earnest, subscriptions at WoW will tank. Players remain invested in WoW because there is a wide-spread belief that it will be around forever (one thing that kills Blizzard's competition is the widespread belief - often confirmed - that its competitors won't be around for long, so there's no sense in investing time in them). As soon as it becomes clear that Blizzard will be phasing out WoW, its subscriptions will fall off a cliff. And as such, the executives are not going to seriously consider that option.
Blizzard is stuck. They have a game that has been hugely successful, but no real way to even try to replace it without taking a huge chance and forgoing a huge amount of revenue. And if the Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 designs have shown anything, it's that the current design staff are not interested in taking big chances; it's all about playing it safe. All that points to a long-term decline for Blizzard and World of Warcraft in particular.
I do not think Blizzard is seriously considering a replacement to World of Warcraft, and the expansions have clearly failed to boost its long-term growth. They are going to live or die on it, and based on the subscription numbers, sooner or later it will be the latter.
My favorite part is that in the final quarter before Cataclysm was released, you know when there was still nothing to do because ICC had been out for almost a year and Ruby Sanctum took like...5 minutes, they actually GAINED 500k subscribers. So historically, he's full of shit : )
China's MMO market is growing & getting some big-hitter F2P titles, can't say I'm surprised the game lost most of it's "subs" in the East when you look at the pace of content updates vs competition coming out, a growing number of internet-cafe players trying other titles will gradually eat away at an older game's playerbase, I'm surprised the decline has not been more rapid, probably a testament to WoW's "fun-factor" it's retained as well as it has in that market.
But a uniquely large population would logically equate to a uniquely large inertia as well.
I agree. The inertia is both their biggest strength - they get solid monthly revenue - but also their biggest weakness - it will be difficult to do anything else.
Blizzard is still doing well by nearly any measure - any measure, that is, except long-term growth. They have a solid game with a huge subscription base, but it is a steadily declining base. The big news of the drop in subscriptions has shown what some people have long suspected: that the boost from expansions is temporary and masks a long-term decline.
Blizzard will do fine for the next five or so years, although there likely will be more layoffs. But beyond that, they have only one real option: build another, better MMORPG. But they can't do that, because the second they start work in earnest, subscriptions at WoW will tank. Players remain invested in WoW because there is a wide-spread belief that it will be around forever (one thing that kills Blizzard's competition is the widespread belief - often confirmed - that its competitors won't be around for long, so there's no sense in investing time in them). As soon as it becomes clear that Blizzard will be phasing out WoW, its subscriptions will fall off a cliff. And as such, the executives are not going to seriously consider that option.
Blizzard is stuck. They have a game that has been hugely successful, but no real way to even try to replace it without taking a huge chance and forgoing a huge amount of revenue. And if the Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 designs have shown anything, it's that the current design staff are not interested in taking big chances; it's all about playing it safe. All that points to a long-term decline for Blizzard and World of Warcraft in particular.
I do not think Blizzard is seriously considering a replacement to World of Warcraft, and the expansions have clearly failed to boost its long-term growth. They are going to live or die on it, and based on the subscription numbers, sooner or later it will be the latter.
They are working on "titan". All the best talent is on that project. I guess it will be released 2015. Next WoW expansion 2014 probably. So I think they have a plan...
I dont know if Titan will be a better MMO. Personally I dont like Blizzard games anymore. But I can also understand why they are mainstream popular and very successful from a business POV. Blizzard probably think Titan will be the new "king"...
The games are very mainstream and they try to satisfie people in general and not to offend anyone. This is good for profits. But not good for true gamers that are hardcore or nerds. Blizzard is not trying to make games for them anymore. Because it would be bad for profits.
Comments
Actually, it's "normal" for games to experience that turnover decline about five-six years earlier in their history.
But a uniquely large population would logically equate to a uniquely large inertia as well.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
I completely agree. It will most likely take WOW much longer to experience the same kind of delince experienced by other P2P games. Having said that, I don't think WOW's sub pop will level again, I think it will continously decline (prob a dif rates as the years pass by).
lol EQ still going after 13 years. Sorry, but there will never be another TRUE EQ ever again. The day the WOW servers come close to the EQ subscription numbers they will just shut it down.
GW2 playerbase will be a fraction of WOWs. GW2 will end up as a PVP game which is a niche crowd. I would bet a good % of GW2 players will have an active subscription in wow just for the PVE/Raiding that GW2 does not have.
Glad you pointed out the fallacy of my second statement. Now see if you can figure out the fallacy in the first one.
-Azure Prower
http://www.youtube.com/AzurePrower
Possibly. Assuming they're stupid enough to throw away a game that's still generating free cash.
Sell it to SOE, where old games go to die...except SOE ain't buyin', this time. They're dealing with a tanking economy too.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
It will be interesting to see how the numbers match up in a couple months. I don't know about your prediction, but I think it's reasonable to believe that for now no game can equal WOW's playerbase. If WOW continues to lose players at the rate that it is currently enduring, it will be down to 5.1 million by August of next year, and 1.1 million by August 2014. Of course, I highly doubt WOW will steadily lose 1.1 million subs every 3 months (who knows), but it's current steady decline does not bode well for Blizzard's WOW.
You do realize that the majority of that number is non subscription. They take in a lot less. Their only subscriber base is here in the west and that is down significantly.
Diablo III has nothing to do with it either, it is a very poorly designed game and most don't play it for long, there is no point in doing so. Everything that was magical about the previous versions was left out in this one.
My guess is their revenues are at least down by half if not more.
The genre is getting much better games and Wow is aging badly, No wonder Vivendi wants to sell them, before the revenue drops too much more. They are not close to releasing their secret MMO or we would have heard about it.
Mists is going to tank too, Pandas are not a big as a draw as they might think.
Historically, expansions don't help save a game once sub decline has begun.
But, unique inertia, who knows. :shrug:
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
fresh news from Blizz:
after the overwhelming public negativity for pandas Blizz has now scrapped Pandaria altogether and replaced it with "finding Nemoria"!
No, apparently pandas don't help save Asian markets declinging, so they're going to have to try the West again.
"Finding Milla Jovovich", maybe? Should have gamernerd appeal.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Gold Farmer:
"I need more characters to script for more gold because with fewer players the price is dropping. I guess I better pay a levelling service for some more characters."
Levelling service:
"I need more gold to buy gear so I can level characters up fast. Guess I better buy some gold."
This game will go on forever.
Once upon a time....
It's going to happen sometime, there's no way WOW will stay the top MMO forever.
Even the analysts at Forbes are predicting trouble ahead for Activision/Blizzard mainly because the company is totally dependent on WOW as it's source of income which is now in decline.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/08/02/world-of-warcraft-guild-wars-2-and-vivendi-activisions-achilles-heel/
That's the thing though... there's only one fallacy in your post; since GW2 has no P2P subs, it cannot beat a game (such as WOW) that does. As to the first statement, I think you were spot on; WOW is dying a very slow and painful death.
f**** analysts.....they also predicted that the banks in europe would become stable after 2 or 3 years after the financial crisis here.
Look how right they where about that huh?
These overpayed analysts rly make me sick. (since all they do is just speculate, they cant tell the future !!!)
The job they do i could sell to firms around the globe in a bloody excell file predicting those numbers....lol.
Yes, Cassandra does indeed often fail. But in theory, analysts at least make educated guesses, unlike gamers.
Want to buy a t-shirt?
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
i read the article and it makes no mention of Call of Duty which was also a huge seller
Activision Blizzard posts $1 billion profit in 2011
http://www.gamespot.com/news/activision-blizzard-posts-1-billion-profit-in-2011-6350085
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 was the best-selling game of 2011. Today, Activision Blizzard reported its fiscal 2011 earnings report, and the success of the first-person shooter franchise helped propel the company to record profits of $1.08 billion on revenues of $4.76 billion. That's a significant improvement over 2010, when profits were $418 million on revenues of $4.45 billion.
EQ2 fan sites
My prediction is that MoP won't bring the numbers up as much as Blizzard and the WoW fanbois are hoping. I honestly believe that WoW is in its twilight years. Its always been a mediocre game, and the main reason that so many people would flock back to it, was to be with their WoW friends and guildies. That's not really the case anymore, I know that several of my gamer friends have settled into other games and have no plans of returning for MoP, as a matter of fact, out of several hundred friends and friends of friends (their new guilds, etc.) I've not heard of anyone who plans to return for MoP.
I'm not saying that WoW is dead, I'm just saying that the gorilla is getting old and long in the tooth. Its had its time and I just don't think that MoP will be the Fountain of Youth that fanbois are hoping it will be.
I agree. The inertia is both their biggest strength - they get solid monthly revenue - but also their biggest weakness - it will be difficult to do anything else.
Blizzard is still doing well by nearly any measure - any measure, that is, except long-term growth. They have a solid game with a huge subscription base, but it is a steadily declining base. The big news of the drop in subscriptions has shown what some people have long suspected: that the boost from expansions is temporary and masks a long-term decline.
Blizzard will do fine for the next five or so years, although there likely will be more layoffs. But beyond that, they have only one real option: build another, better MMORPG. But they can't do that, because the second they start work in earnest, subscriptions at WoW will tank. Players remain invested in WoW because there is a wide-spread belief that it will be around forever (one thing that kills Blizzard's competition is the widespread belief - often confirmed - that its competitors won't be around for long, so there's no sense in investing time in them). As soon as it becomes clear that Blizzard will be phasing out WoW, its subscriptions will fall off a cliff. And as such, the executives are not going to seriously consider that option.
Blizzard is stuck. They have a game that has been hugely successful, but no real way to even try to replace it without taking a huge chance and forgoing a huge amount of revenue. And if the Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 designs have shown anything, it's that the current design staff are not interested in taking big chances; it's all about playing it safe. All that points to a long-term decline for Blizzard and World of Warcraft in particular.
I do not think Blizzard is seriously considering a replacement to World of Warcraft, and the expansions have clearly failed to boost its long-term growth. They are going to live or die on it, and based on the subscription numbers, sooner or later it will be the latter.
They are working on "titan". All the best talent is on that project. I guess it will be released 2015. Next WoW expansion 2014 probably. So I think they have a plan...
I dont know if Titan will be a better MMO. Personally I dont like Blizzard games anymore. But I can also understand why they are mainstream popular and very successful from a business POV. Blizzard probably think Titan will be the new "king"...
The games are very mainstream and they try to satisfie people in general and not to offend anyone. This is good for profits. But not good for true gamers that are hardcore or nerds. Blizzard is not trying to make games for them anymore. Because it would be bad for profits.