Originally posted by umcorian What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week?
Judging by their botched job on security and their sad excuse for customer service, I seriously doubt they will retain massive amounts of players like WoW. They just don't seem to have the same level of professionalism like the folks at Blizzard. My prediction is that GW2 will be a typical fad like every other mmo out there (except WoW).
So what you are trying to tell me is, EverQuest, having a subscription model for 13 years and now being F2P with servers still up and populated, was a 'typical fad like every other mmo out there' ? Lol Satar cmon, you are obviously wrong here and just another little WoW utopian.
This game is doomed to go by the wayside because as others in this thread have said, ANet didnt do enough to try and change the genre. MMO's are successful because they have something people want. People in Everquest wanted an easier game because they couldnt devote the time it took to go through the progression. They got WoW. (Unfortunately might I add, I liked EQ's model quite a bit till it went too rampant on the X-pack's.) Now people want something that is different than the same ole wow/eq combat, ANet's answer is the same combat with a dodge mixed in? thats pretty sad and shows how out of touch they were.
Side Note - What innovations did GW2 bring to the MMORPG Genre? I have yet to see one unique to this game.
I think EQ1 is on the rise again. Levels come quick, they now have the mercs so any class can solo reasonbly well now. They've gone F2P and have been slowly adding servers after years of contraction. There's still the raiding blahs for those who prefer to solo but there's a lot of good gaming (substance) in between and Vanguard (could be called EQ1a) is now F2P if you just gotta have better graphics.
On the other hand bro you're wrong about Anet. These guys are smarter then you think. GW2 will continue to be a success because their business model better than the subscription model. Whaaaat you think SOE is switching after all these years for nothing!
They are going to use subs for the diehards and F2P to keep population high enough to keep the game from dying and stay aloft across all the games they want to keep up and running.
Originally posted by TsaboHavoc both, its growing and dying at the same time.
It's the epic winfail whale of the 21st century. Accept no substitutes.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
I was one of the people who sat here and explained, how Guild Wars 2 can change the mmo-industry, and that it is the only title being able to compete, quality-wise, to WoW.
However, I will still be one of the people, who will gladly explain, that Guild Wars 2 is a full-time mmo just for the first weeks/months. It is not WoW, not it is designed to be, this will be the mmo that you will have on your computer, and that you will gladly check from now to then to have some fun with pve content or pvp with friends.
It will keep it name, as one of the legends in the mmo-industry until the next expansion, however, this is not an mmo that will keep the player-base playing the whole time.
TLDR, people will get bored of it, and fast.
After 1 year, it will be forgotten.
But it's not because the game is shallow or bad, noooo, it was designed that way.
Rofl
I doubt many people will actually come back every now and then.... to do what? more Dynamic Events? lol
2 million sold, 1 year later, 300.000 active players, yeah, a real industry changer, a real legend.
Well, I don´t really agree with you here, because I don´t see ArenaNet letting the community wait for 1 whole year without putting a new expansion. People at Anet have´t chosen B2P becasue they are angels and they want players to be happy, well, maybe of course, however, the main point was to attract people and to get money for this attraction.
They have, surely, checked the industry, analyzed the situation and finally chosen to go with the B2P model and so far, it seems that they actually have chosen the right path. Aside from WoW there´s no mmo in the industry which isn´t not risked to go free 2 play anytime soon, not even Rift, with such a beautiful company behind it.
I may have analyzed their plan in a whole wrong way, however what I think is simple: Anet didn´t sit 5 years to create what they have so far shown us, they surely have found something, something that can keep the name Guild Wars 2, as legendary as it is right now. I am not saying the word '' legendary '' because I am fanboi, nor becasue I think Guild Wars 2 is the perfect game, but becasue I can see, that even if GW2 didn´t reach the expection, it has so far done a really great job, to well, try to shine in the industry.
Guild Wars 2, is now the second biggest title in the industry behind WoW, and it may take the first place soon, not because it is better, nor because GW2 will get more players because that will never happen, but becasue Anet has played their cards right, if they can resume, they maybe able to dominate the industry.
Again, I am not a fanboi, however, I really think that it is important to see reality, instead of forgetting it just becasue I hate Guild Wars 2 as a game, or themeparks as a genre. I am talking about the industry as a whole, not Guild Wars 2 as a game, I am not comparing Guild Wars 2 with the picture of the perfect mmo in my head, but other mmos, being out there, in reality
Guild wars is great game. My concern isn't the game itself, it's the players. There is rampant exploiting going on. Players are trying to find any small way to get an advantage, and using it, regardless of the consequences.
This to me makes me not want to play. Just because I don't want to play with poeple who think they need to do this crap to win(do well in the game).
Originally posted by Mannish Afther a couple weeks the game will start to die. The game just does not give you anything to look forward to doing or anything to work hard for. To me it does not even feel like a mmo.
Originally posted by Mannish Afther a couple weeks the game will start to die. The game just does not give you anything to look forward to doing or anything to work hard for. To me it does not even feel like a mmo.
This from someone with a FFXIV signature.
No one cares what you have to say.
No one cares what any of us really have to say. We are all fish swimming in a giant sea.
Originally posted by Mannish Afther a couple weeks the game will start to die. The game just does not give you anything to look forward to doing or anything to work hard for. To me it does not even feel like a mmo.
This from someone with a FFXIV signature.
No one cares what you have to say.
If you did not care what I had to say you would not have replied to it. And its a Final Fantasy XIV Reborn sig. Even in alpha the game looks better then GW2.
Originally posted by dynamicipftw It won't die because of the B2P model, but it will go back down to under 1 mil active players because of the lack of endgame.
Lack of endgame? Just did Caudecus Manor (story mode) for the first time... oh man, is that a fun dungeon. I had a blast, and that's a level 40 area. Of course, the group I got earlier for Catacombs explorer mode got our arses handed to us... the dungeons themselves, if you have an ounce of raider-lust in you there's a ton of fun to be had here starting at level 30 on up.
The lack of low level dungeons was a surprise. I figure they would throw in some lvl 15-20 dungeon. The first dungeon isn't until lvl 30-35. I think the game will weather for awhile. Even after Pandaria is released, GW2 will remain strong. Can't foresee any new MMOs that are exciting coming up.
They have plans for the longterm future of the game which is encouraging. I see no reason why people wouldn't play this even as their game on the side as it is a good game.
I think the true test will be to see how many copies of the first expansion sell as compared to the base game. There will not be any subscription metrics to determine retention, outside of concurrent user numbers.
I am placing my vote in the "growth" category for now.
Agreed. It is really hard to measure anything else, X-fire would be the most accurate way (and how sad is that?).
I think the game first will drop a little and then slowly grow. Twice the total sales of GW1 have been my bet since long before launch and it still stands.
I think the best measure of growth is how well the base game continues to sell. Might seem counter-intuitive to those of us who think most about the hardcore gamer community who almost always buy games when they launch, but a really popular game will somehow manage to keep selling, for years. A failure trickles to almost nothing within a few months. Most decent games fall somewhere in between.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
Expecting some kind of explosive (WoW-like) growth would be unreasonable. WoW opened the door to the world of MMOs for the casual crowd so to speak. in 1980s IBM PC and MS DOS did the same trick for personal computing. But such events are one-time. By now the MMO playerbase has stabilized and players are mostly split between several major titles (GW2, WoW, SWTOR, Aion, EVE).
But GW2 has no reason to die as it had a relatively smooth launch (not completely without issues but we all have seen worse) and as of now there are few bugs - gameplay-related or otherwise. I agree that Trading Post needs to be fixed of course. But the game is more or less what the developers have promised. Anyone who isn't happy with it probably didn't do any research whatsoever before buying.
MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).
Originally posted by syndreamer The lack of low level dungeons was a surprise. I figure they would throw in some lvl 15-20 dungeon. The first dungeon isn't until lvl 30-35. I think the game will weather for awhile. Even after Pandaria is released, GW2 will remain strong. Can't foresee any new MMOs that are exciting coming up.
I think the lack of dungeon might be entirely intentional.
I notice that they have a lot of dungeon-like open world areas (some specific points of interest with a hard mob and a lot of normal mobs) but not instanced dungeons.
They might be doing this to make the world feels as seamless as their technology allows, and also to promote PvE cooperative play instead of PVE competitive play. A lot of their design seems to indicate this (for example, mobs don't get locked to first hitter)
I don't think a very large chunk of people will drop the game after < one month to never look back like in so many other mmo's considering it's always there open to play with no additional cost. But doesn't mean the concurrent population will drop significantly though.
I think it will grow a bit more with very good reviews from both players and proffesionals and the no subscription fee it's going to scoop up more players for a while more imo.
Originally posted by aznxdreadful Dont forget to add CHINA Sales to guild wars 2 sales list.
Well, it is rather impossible to say how that will go, Chinese games are generally somewhat different than western and the game will probably be changed a bit before releasing. I wouldnt be surprised if they up the itemshop and make it F2P there.
It might sell millions of copies because there are loads of Chinese players out there, but they might not be interested at all as well.
As for now even guessing how things will do is really hard.
I know some of my clan have stopped playing already, so a month or maybe 2 sounds about right.
As its free to play after buying i guess people will keep poping back in a hope the queue for the wvwvw have gone down.. i was waiting 3 1/2 hours friday night and didnt get in.. and as wvwvw is the only thing im interested in i went to play somthing else.
Originally posted by aznxdreadful Dont forget to add CHINA Sales to guild wars 2 sales list.
Well, it is rather impossible to say how that will go, Chinese games are generally somewhat different than western and the game will probably be changed a bit before releasing. I wouldnt be surprised if they up the itemshop and make it F2P there.
It might sell millions of copies because there are loads of Chinese players out there, but they might not be interested at all as well.
As for now even guessing how things will do is really hard.
Yea thats seems legit.. oh well lets hope they will like GW2 if not we still do !
While PvE is in an ok-ish state PvP is actually horrible imho. If you think WoW was burst, GW2 is king here. It's all about 2 button smashing and killing players in 2-3 seconds. Not fun. The class balance is really horrible. Either you play a burst class or you have no business in PvP.
WvW is also in a bad shape now. Either you have super long queue times or you get literally destroyed on low-pop servers.
Maybe ANet can sort out these things. Maybe not. Had some fun for some days, but that's it. Back to playing shooters
Burst might be overwhelming but they more often than not chain it with a stun. Try to break the stun within time or dodge roll out of the way and smite them from afar.
Comments
I think EQ1 is on the rise again. Levels come quick, they now have the mercs so any class can solo reasonbly well now. They've gone F2P and have been slowly adding servers after years of contraction. There's still the raiding blahs for those who prefer to solo but there's a lot of good gaming (substance) in between and Vanguard (could be called EQ1a) is now F2P if you just gotta have better graphics.
On the other hand bro you're wrong about Anet. These guys are smarter then you think. GW2 will continue to be a success because their business model better than the subscription model. Whaaaat you think SOE is switching after all these years for nothing!
They are going to use subs for the diehards and F2P to keep population high enough to keep the game from dying and stay aloft across all the games they want to keep up and running.
It's the epic winfail whale of the 21st century. Accept no substitutes.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Well, I don´t really agree with you here, because I don´t see ArenaNet letting the community wait for 1 whole year without putting a new expansion. People at Anet have´t chosen B2P becasue they are angels and they want players to be happy, well, maybe of course, however, the main point was to attract people and to get money for this attraction.
They have, surely, checked the industry, analyzed the situation and finally chosen to go with the B2P model and so far, it seems that they actually have chosen the right path. Aside from WoW there´s no mmo in the industry which isn´t not risked to go free 2 play anytime soon, not even Rift, with such a beautiful company behind it.
I may have analyzed their plan in a whole wrong way, however what I think is simple: Anet didn´t sit 5 years to create what they have so far shown us, they surely have found something, something that can keep the name Guild Wars 2, as legendary as it is right now. I am not saying the word '' legendary '' because I am fanboi, nor becasue I think Guild Wars 2 is the perfect game, but becasue I can see, that even if GW2 didn´t reach the expection, it has so far done a really great job, to well, try to shine in the industry.
Guild Wars 2, is now the second biggest title in the industry behind WoW, and it may take the first place soon, not because it is better, nor because GW2 will get more players because that will never happen, but becasue Anet has played their cards right, if they can resume, they maybe able to dominate the industry.
Again, I am not a fanboi, however, I really think that it is important to see reality, instead of forgetting it just becasue I hate Guild Wars 2 as a game, or themeparks as a genre. I am talking about the industry as a whole, not Guild Wars 2 as a game, I am not comparing Guild Wars 2 with the picture of the perfect mmo in my head, but other mmos, being out there, in reality
Thanks!
and they are getting banned without mercy
This from someone with a FFXIV signature.
No one cares what you have to say.
No one cares what any of us really have to say. We are all fish swimming in a giant sea.
If you did not care what I had to say you would not have replied to it. And its a Final Fantasy XIV Reborn sig. Even in alpha the game looks better then GW2.
Lack of endgame? Just did Caudecus Manor (story mode) for the first time... oh man, is that a fun dungeon. I had a blast, and that's a level 40 area. Of course, the group I got earlier for Catacombs explorer mode got our arses handed to us... the dungeons themselves, if you have an ounce of raider-lust in you there's a ton of fun to be had here starting at level 30 on up.
Oderint, dum metuant.
I think the game will remain about even.
Although if I had to choose grow or leave, I'd choose grow EVER so slightly.
It really depends upon how quickly Anet gets these irritating launch issues fixed.
This isn't a signature, you just think it is.
Agreed. It is really hard to measure anything else, X-fire would be the most accurate way (and how sad is that?).
I think the game first will drop a little and then slowly grow. Twice the total sales of GW1 have been my bet since long before launch and it still stands.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
Expecting some kind of explosive (WoW-like) growth would be unreasonable. WoW opened the door to the world of MMOs for the casual crowd so to speak. in 1980s IBM PC and MS DOS did the same trick for personal computing. But such events are one-time. By now the MMO playerbase has stabilized and players are mostly split between several major titles (GW2, WoW, SWTOR, Aion, EVE).
But GW2 has no reason to die as it had a relatively smooth launch (not completely without issues but we all have seen worse) and as of now there are few bugs - gameplay-related or otherwise. I agree that Trading Post needs to be fixed of course. But the game is more or less what the developers have promised. Anyone who isn't happy with it probably didn't do any research whatsoever before buying.
MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).
I think the lack of dungeon might be entirely intentional.
I notice that they have a lot of dungeon-like open world areas (some specific points of interest with a hard mob and a lot of normal mobs) but not instanced dungeons.
They might be doing this to make the world feels as seamless as their technology allows, and also to promote PvE cooperative play instead of PVE competitive play. A lot of their design seems to indicate this (for example, mobs don't get locked to first hitter)
I don't think a very large chunk of people will drop the game after < one month to never look back like in so many other mmo's considering it's always there open to play with no additional cost. But doesn't mean the concurrent population will drop significantly though.
I think it will grow a bit more with very good reviews from both players and proffesionals and the no subscription fee it's going to scoop up more players for a while more imo.
Well, it is rather impossible to say how that will go, Chinese games are generally somewhat different than western and the game will probably be changed a bit before releasing. I wouldnt be surprised if they up the itemshop and make it F2P there.
It might sell millions of copies because there are loads of Chinese players out there, but they might not be interested at all as well.
As for now even guessing how things will do is really hard.
I know some of my clan have stopped playing already, so a month or maybe 2 sounds about right.
As its free to play after buying i guess people will keep poping back in a hope the queue for the wvwvw have gone down.. i was waiting 3 1/2 hours friday night and didnt get in.. and as wvwvw is the only thing im interested in i went to play somthing else.
Yea thats seems legit.. oh well lets hope they will like GW2 if not we still do
!
http://gw2skills.net/editor/en/?fYEQRAoY6alUmaO3ey3E+5Ex2jdqTey9woKtpdFwKA;TwAg0CnowxgjAHbNOck4siYMyGiJGA
While PvE is in an ok-ish state PvP is actually horrible imho. If you think WoW was burst, GW2 is king here. It's all about 2 button smashing and killing players in 2-3 seconds. Not fun. The class balance is really horrible. Either you play a burst class or you have no business in PvP.
WvW is also in a bad shape now. Either you have super long queue times or you get literally destroyed on low-pop servers.
Maybe ANet can sort out these things. Maybe not. Had some fun for some days, but that's it. Back to playing shooters