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[Column] General: Thinking The Once Virtually Unthinkable
SBFord
Former Associate EditorMember LegendaryPosts: 33,129
Last week's announcement that Blizzard was taking Titan back to the drawing board took many fans of the gaming behemouth by surprise. Is it possible that the unthinkable might finally be entering Blizzard's consciousness? F2P? Maybe? In today's Free Zone, we take a look at that astonishing possibility. See what you think before you add your thoughts to the conversation in the comments.
Early last month, Activision admitted that WoW had lost about 1.5 million subscribers during Q1, the majority of whom were in the Far East. While it still has 8 million, even if this number holds through to the end of the year, the company won't rank as 2013's top global MMOG publisher as measured by revenue. That position will probably go to Chinese giant Tencent. Second isn't exactly certain either, not with the likes of Nexon squarely in the mix. And what revenue model do both these companies use?
Read more of Richard Aihoshi's The Free Zone: Thinking The Once Virtually Unthinkable.
Comments
Whatever the reason is, twelve years to release a successor for WoW is much too long. Some slept very deep. Must have been a rough awakening.
I doubt it is the payment model. If you have a good/fun game the payment model is not that important. People will spend money for it. Maybe they recognized that they missed the sandbox train...
I actually do think they will go the route of B2P for this next MMO (if we ever see it). The market is tilting decidedly in that direction. I think Heathstone will be types of games that we see from Blizzard that are full on F2P. Both Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 are B2P so its hardly a stretch to imagine they would try it.
Their biggest issue is that if they release a new MMO that is B2P that kind of puts WoW in a weird spot. It ends up being (public perception wise) the most expensive of the their offerings while being the oldest. Its hard to justify 15$ a month for one of your older services while giving another similar more modern gameplay service away for free. This will be a bit different from SC2 or D3 vs WoW. If whatever Titan becomes actually does go B2P you might see WoW go that way eventually as well.
The problem I have always had with this column is its sweeping generalizations about revenue. What are the factors that go into that revenue bar? Who in fact is making the data? Are they taking into account Asian versus Western Market? Is this because of a weak dollar? When you say revenue is it gross or net?
Secondly I get that these Asian MMO's are doing fantastic in Asia. I will buy into that. Yet you know why I do not play the ones available here? I am not at all interested. It has nothing to do with price plan. Free or not, if I do not want to play a game, I won't. Lots of people drink Pepsi. I despise it, but lots of people drink. So? Good for them. Stop trying to sell us on a concept. Stop trying to point the finger at the bad ole Western gamer who may not find those games as playable. Free to play is a tactic it still takes money out of gamers' pockets for items they are pressured into needing to "win". Great racket if you can get it.
the failure of SWTOR and other games to maintain a subscription only model is a failure of the game's design not the revenue model itself. I dare say there is not a perfect revenue model out there and that it will change over time. Maybe back to subscriptions, maybe onto something else entirely.
Just My 2 Lunars
I'd much rather have a game company sell me a game that ENTERTAINS me.
Not "gives" me a game for free that they then use to try and sell me crap.
I get that many people like F2P, and I'm sure mmorpg.com loves f2p MMO's because of all the advertising revenue they pump out but to me it is faux entertainment trying to scam me and get at my wallet.
I'll gladly pay for my entertainment because I believe those in the entertainment industry deserve to make a living. But as an adult I can decide for myself what to spend my money on for entertainment, I do not need to be tricked by games into spending money in the "cash shop" just for them to turn a profit.
NO THANK YOU
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What about Games companies that spend millions trying to sell you a crap game? (of course subjectively speaking its crap to you) At least you can try it and then decide to by some crap instead of being sold it before you even realise.
This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
I have never bought a B2P or P2P box and regretted it afterwards, regardless of how loudly the game publisher promoted the game before launch.
That's because I take the time to read-up, play open beta's, watch streamed footage, etc. before I buy the game.
I'd far rather "take my chances" than be stuck with this F2P junk. The only "good" F2P games are the ones that started out as sub-based games and converted later.
So far, my experience of "designed for F2P" games has been poor. They all tend to feel like a Cash Shop with some game elements tagged-on. Every psychological trick in the book is employed to "encourage" players to spend some money in the CS. Some are subtle, some not so much...
I feel its less F2P and more the game's workings were underpar considering what is available on the market. Such a long development cycle means technology likely advanced a lot, and particular more is available out there with more features they hadn't expected.
Lets face some facts, WoW's success was the perfect storm. It wasn't that it was the 'best game', simply it had come out at just the right time hinging on Everquest 1's success, having the boost of its popularity (blizzard) added by some good marketting. From there it just established itself a foothold. Its never been the 'best' game out there, it simply built a player base. SInce TBC its been mostly taking steps back more then forward, yet it managed to keep a good sized based since it did have such numbers. That base with so many F2P is suddenly starting to take a toll as people are far more willing to make a leap and lets face it, with age no matter what features they take from other games (which lets be honest, WoW is NOT original, many of things it has was taken from other places) just aren't enough and can't be put in a way that really functions with what the game has.
Titan likely hit that roadblock and can't keep up to date. I think blizzard realized that people aren't going to 'buy in' just because its them. Diablo 3 was quickly bashed away and shunned by a large majority of the community. They can't get away with giving a subpar platform, it needs to be up to date, else they will see Titan dwindle much like SWTOR had. Perhaps partly unrealistic expectations, but with a large amount of choice players just are hard to keep loyalty to, and people are starting to look beyond the glitter of 'ooo its blizzard' and think for themselves.... even if its often a very flawed way of doing it. Your only going to keep so many fanboys to keep you running.
Most of us are missing a plain fact: the cornerstone statement in Blizzard's recent communication is that they have never officially commented on the new MMO project.
It's good and fun to go around speculating but why not concentrate on the actual quote? It's sweet that everyone and their granny are pondering about F2P and sandbox redesign, though.
Sure WoW's falling fast, the graphics are sh*te and the latest content patch is a drag, but it is by far still the top dog. Whenever another MMO title reaches at least half it's playerbase is when there will be grounds to call it a sign. If anything, Blizzard has shown through the years they have a firm vision and strategy, and they do things their way all other factors aside, and remain successful.
Back to my original notion, the only thing in the communication that seems fishy is the team being reshuffled - if you say that you're doing an overhaul on a range of critical matters you'd get more people in, not out.
Clearly Titan is ready to the point of being announced at Blizzcon, and the people are being relocated to revamp WoW in the meantime. Just trolling like all of you, so let's stay tuned for a formal notice and keep the bulls**t aside.
>>SMITE<<
>>Strife: best ever MOBA<<
>>Rift: FREE Ally of the Ascended Pack<<
Just like everything else...Free to play is a trend! A trend that is on the rise and will have its peak and its eventual fall to normalcy.
I am not against F2P at all but you can't predict the market in 2016. For all we know a new model will be out by the time Titan releases! I honestly believe that Titan just had out-dated ideas, we are talking about 2007 here. MMO's have evolved and changed in many ways since then and Blizzard would be stupid not to recognize this.
Returning to the OP's article though. Will WoW go F2P? Yes. Anytime soon? Probably not.
Will Titan be F2P? No one knows what the market will look like in 2016.
MMORPG Gamers/Developers need a reality check!
The desire for F2P comes out of the FACT that most games released post WoW are generally garbage wrapped around a hot IP. NOT because F2P is such a fantastic thing. If blizzard produces a game that rocks, people will pay. Just like they continue to pay for WoW knowing that there is a flood of F2P stuff out there. Please can we move off of F2P as a marketing necessity and recognize it as a marketing response.
If you dont think this is the case, please list what games have been developed and produced so well that they match the OVERALL quality of Wow.
People would have payed for a great Starwars game, a great D&D game, a great comic book game...NONE of which were given to the end consumer, hence they are now F2P.
This whole term "Free to Play" should be banned. They're anything but "Free" if you intend to be anything other then the most casual of players.
The whole F2P market is full of this kind of misrepresentation, what with it's so called "open beta" releases that are fully launched games with no more character wipes and a working cash shop.
I despise this kind of dishonesty and it just turns me off the games that try to pull the wool over people's eyes in this way. This is why I stopped playing Neverwinter and War Thunder. Open Betas my arse.
The way F2P is set up is just a big con. They should at least be honest about it and advertise them as Free to Try.
I have no real gripes about F2P but I wonder how it makes any money at all. I've not spent one penny in a F2P game because I cannot wrap my head around spending real money for digital clothes or pets or whatever. Do I recognize that it is exactly the same thing to pay a subscription...yes. What does that say about me? I guess that I'm able to rationalize that a subscription is for playing the game (which nets me all those other things). If a game is good enough I'm happy to pay a sub. If it isn't well then I don't. Trying to make my brain ok with spending the same amount every month so I can buy zen, gems, EP, or whatever game currency your selling that I can then use to by an armor skin just feels...wrong. I can't imagine I'm the only one out there with these feelings.
Clearly the model makes money, because everyone and their brother seems to be switching to it. Guess I'm the old fogey who doesn't like change....feels odd to say.
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Looking Forward to: Wildstar
Considering we know absolutely nothing about the game is pretty hard to say whether or not it would be good with a F2P model. However a change in the income model would not require this kind of a hard reset. Chances are much more likely it is a core design issue, as in what kind of game it is(MMOFPS, MMORPG, etc...) or there was some major technological issues they were facing that they needed to redesign to fix.
Also, if you can't find people willing to play your game for a subscription, sure you can possibly make money nickel and dimeing them with F2P. However a subscription provides much more stable income. Considering less than 40% of F2P players EVER buy anything from the online store(and that number gets much smaller when you are talking about reoccurring purchases) you need to have considerably more players to be profitable in a F2P game. Also more players means more overhead, so you spend more on things like support and hardware. The up side is that because people aren't paying a sub they aren't pushed to provide content at a specific rate. The thing is I really don't think Blizzard would have trouble getting subs if they went that route, so you have to think what is the up side for them to go F2P?
I'm going to use those statements, and Logan400k's statement:
"the failure of SWTOR and other games to maintain a subscription only model is a failure of the game's design not the revenue model itself."
for my new signature.
They're both perfect.
You cant be serious, anyone here actually thought it was something else then vaporware?
Titan has been a joke from the beginning, its just a bad publicity stunt. Shame on you for hyping something that will never get released in the first place.
I think that Blizzard finally came to the conclusion that the game they were working on was at least 6-10 years out of date. And thus had to take a step back and realize that if they did not retool they were going to wind up like so many other not so good games and have a huge backlash.
I see this as a good thing, at least they had enough brains to realize they were about to blow it, and thus destroy themselves in the process. I have always said the only thing that can kill Blizzard is themselves, and that would have done it, especially after the total fail job of D3.
So in one way it is good, and in another way were all still left wondering what the heck are they really making.
$60 every 2 year for "expansions" + $15 per month sub is a rip-off. So called "free" to play are annoying with their constant nudges--or sometimes big shoves--to get you to buy essentials and crap.
Surely the "unthinkable" is the $5 / month sub with free expansions where we can play without being constantly target marketted... not the two different but equally wrong options we now have available.
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