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5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.
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Im as optimistic about the game as the next guy, but signing up for a beta, and shelling out actually money for a game are two wildly different things. Lots of people sign up for every beta thats out there.
Id be surprised if they break 2 million sales honestly, console sales might help propel to those numbers.
The console version should be looked at as a completely different game, because the PC and Console are not cross platform.
The game could be a landslide success on one platform and a huge failure on another.
What are your other Hobbies?
Gaming is Dirt Cheap compared to this...
Your both projecting your personal dislike for the game to equate poor reception. If I could do that McDonalds would have gone out of business a decade ago.
Quoted from the Wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls_V:_Skyrim
"During the first day of release, Steam showed over 230,000 people playing Skyrim concurrently.[114] In the first week of release, Bethesda stated that 7 million copies of the game had been shipped to retailers worldwide, and that total sales through the following Wednesday were expected to generate an estimated US$450 million.[115][116] By December 16, 2011, this had risen to 10 million copies shipped to retail and around US$620 million.[117] Additionally, Valve stated that it was the fastest selling game to date on their Steam platform.[117] Steam's statistics page showed the client breaking a five million user record by having 5,012,468 users logged in January 2, 2012. During this time, Skyrim was the most-played game on Steam by a huge margin, with double the number of players as Team Fortress 2, the second-placed game.[118] In the United Kingdom, Skyrim was the 9th best selling title of 2012.[119] In June 2013, Bethesda announced that over 20 million copies of the game had been sold;[120] of those sales, 59% were for the Xbox 360, 27% for the PS3, and 14% for the PC.[121]"
Still want to stand by your 600K projection on sales? I won't even guess at player retention at this point but 5-7 million in box/digital sales between PC and Console is easy to see for a Elder Scrolls Title.
I feel like OP may have some vested interest in ESO. Almost 500 posts in a little over a month with 99% of the posts telling everyone how amazing ESO is. That seems weird to me. That averages out to over 10 posts per day talking about why ESO is amazing.
As for 10 million subscriptions by the end of the year? Yeah right. I'm not sure ESO will ever have 10 million cumulative subscriptions and it will likely have terrible retention, particularly on consoles.
A fair point
My *gut* feeling....it will be more successful on PC than on console....
Except that I am a fan of the game, pre-ordered my Imp edition, have been playing it pretty hardcore and really enjoy the game as well as the ES games dating back to Arena...
I am just a realist. Skyrim is another animal... There is a lot of hate for ESO in the skyrim community... Plus I completely made up those statistics... don't fall for the trap bro...
I am hoping for a huge success.. people just have to stop thinking in terms of millions = success...
What are your other Hobbies?
Gaming is Dirt Cheap compared to this...
and you will probably lose.
First of all that is 5 million registered users (which an article on this site addresses) of which I have several registrations. Some were just "test" registrations due to a conversation on whether their site could recognize multiple instances of the same e-mail (which it didn't) not to mention several PAX registrations (also same e-mail).
So I imagine there are multiple people with multiple registrations.
Secondly, of the "portion" of individual people who registered and actually played beta, not everyone will be buying (which makes sense of course).
Your conclusion is predicated on the idea that the game will only get better and the subs will rise because they have to.
Maybe the game won't get better, maybe it will stay the same, maybe players will play and then move on to something else (like so many other games out there).
Your entire argument is that the game will expand to 10 million players "because it just has to".
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
Especially since the consoles will also be separated XB1 and PS will have separate Megaservers
(Third question down)
https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/
What are your other Hobbies?
Gaming is Dirt Cheap compared to this...
Well, last time I played beta a few hours I uninstalled it to be able to do more important things. The game was just so good for me that I could not write a single line although I had tons of work to do.
10 million is a bit too optimistic assumption though, more like 1 million which would be still extremely good.
10 million by the end of the year isn't something I'd bet money on. But I could see it being the really big hit that opens up the MMO to the masses on the console.
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
The point raised that Skyrim fans wont come to this game and has a lot of hate in its community is completely false, what I see is a game that is as close to skyrim as it can get without losing its MMO title.
What you saw was in early beta with a lot of skyrim features missing, but as they got feedback from more and more skyrim players, they have constantly over the last year added more and more skyrim feateures. If you believe the first wave of beta testers who tested it without the skyrim features you see in it today, you would have never bought the game as a skyrim fan.
But seeing this game as a skyrim single player game after all the changes they made during the last year, is a correct assumption.
I think when Zenimax shows the skyrim features in this game to the skyrim community, they will all agree that it is now what they want from this game. That's my thoughts from a skyrim point of view.
After all the changes I wouldn't be supprised to see a 90% skyrim turnout for this game in the next 3 years to come with a little advertisement and word of mouth. which alone is 18 million players.
lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0&list=RDFopyRHHlt3M
I guess I could take this moment to show you my vested instrest.
https://sites.google.com/site/esocrafting/home
My fan crafting website is all the instrest I have in it. I think a game has came along where you are going to start seeing more of people like me that find this game exciting. Sometimes a good thing can come along after a 5+ years and someones dream can be answered. Mine of course. you might not see it if you don't like PVE. So yes, I admit I'm a fan, but soon there will be 10 million of me. So get used to the change in positive thoughts around here, I know atleast 20 people on this forum who used to hate this game to now wanting to play this game every day that passes. That alone is a sign of what I'm talking about when I say 10 million easy!
I the flyingdutchman can say with ABSOLUTE certaintythere wont be 10 mil people to play ESO ever.
I enjoy the game....
I'm per-ordering....
but 10 mil is delusional.
That would put it on par with WoW in it's prime..... Never Gonna Happen... It might not EVER happen again for any game. It def wont be ESO.
It's not a game with large scale appeal....
I think it can do well an be successful, but 10 mil isn't gonna happen for an MMO anytime before 2020. And that's only if someone can cook up something truly amazing between now and then.
"The problem is that the hardcore folks always want the same thing: 'We want exactly what you gave us before, but it has to be completely different.'
-Jesse Schell
"Online gamers are the most ludicrously entitled beings since Caligula made his horse a senator, and at least the horse never said anything stupid."
-Luke McKinney
if ESO did reach 10 million subs (not sure if that's what the OP meant or not) it would be by far the most successful mmo in the west eclipsing wow by a large margin.
i don't think that will happen. i don't even think wow had 5 million concurrent subs in the west at any given time, i could be wrong though.
if ESO has a couple million players at any time at least i would say that is a huge success and i do think they will, especially after the console version launch.
Optimistic does not even begin to describe you. I am afraid you will be sorely mistaken.
10 millions. damn.
will there be enough horses for everyone?
usual margin? got a link to those made up statistics?
no i think that is worst case scenario. ESO will at least have 1 million players at launch, probably much more and 200k subs after 6 months, i would say no less than 500k at worst.
that's considering the game will be on 4 different platforms.
Registered doesn't mean playing - there is your difference. How many will leave after one month of playing to avoid the P2P of this game - if SWTOR and TSW are any indication - a majority will do just that. The numbers mean diddly.
Crazy thread, I don't know of anyone that did not register at least 3 different email addresses to get into the beta and do know one person that did 10.
The only chance this game had of getting 10 million in sales would have been if they released on all platforms at the same time. As it stands now, with the dates being so far apart, those waiting to buy on consoles will have 3 months worth of full reviews and see the opinions of those talking about what the game is like after the "shiny new" feel wears off and are more likely to pass. Then the droves of TES (console) fans thinking this is just another TES game will have time to figure out that it isn't and will end up passing. So, they missed their best chance at tricking those that don't actually look into their games and that's going to be a decent chunk of people.
2-3 million in sales, may top 4 but half of those aren't going to end up enjoying the chopped up world and end game PvP as much as they thought they would, so that's going to kill any momentum in sales.
There is a huge difference between selling 10 million copies of a game and having 10 million active subs at one time. I think sales wise 5-7 million in the first year between both PC and Console is a pretty safe bet and it may very well pass that. Remember Skyrim sold 20 million by some accounts more and that's not including the people who don't play SPG's that will be buying this. I know a percentage of those Skyrim players will not buy this game because it's a MMO with a sub but to say 20% or so plus MMO only buyers isn't a stretch by any means.
As for how many will be still be subbed after 90 days or so I really don't know. Zenimax needs to present a value argument for subbing beyond access to the game and really we need to see steady content packs with real new things for all play styles to do every 4-6 weeks. This means 2-3 teams leapfrogging each other on new content releases plus teams dedicated to bug/systems fixes. I just don't know if Zenimax has that kind of commitment to the game yet or not.
wow has had like 11 or 12 million which includes the Asia market. wow has never had that kind of success in EU and NA alone.
yes it is a bit delusional to think that ESO will have 10 million subs at any time.
can it happen? yes, if the game was to be a success on the consoles i think it is possible but it is unlikely.
but it's also delusional when i see people claim that games like wildstar will have more subs than ESO and i see that claim and many others like it around here a lot.