5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.

Zeblade · March 2014

I sit here wondering if the OP is saying "HAHA I got these guys good".

Well the 10 million is a dead give away. Do you know how many MMO's I am 'NO LIE" REGISTERED in? Never played them.

ESO .. have you played it OP? Whats the OMG this is so kool, never did this before!

But hey some of use have been here long enough that we see this all the time.

Man RIFT, Starwars has more to offer then this one.

Just talk truth. I mean 5 mil reg beta users. Registered.. never said 5 million playing. Did that get 100k to play or 500k.. this is so easy to answer and they know. But 200k playing ...just dont look good but OMG 5 MILLION registered beta users looks nice!

So OP go ask.. how many played in beta.. man even ask for TOTAL. Wont even come close to 5mil.

It looks beautiful, quests are easy some bugged. The NPC talk. Cant get lost..billions of runes and chest to find and play with. Very easy targets for they dont more very far at all. Need to talk to that NPC.. he will be standing there come rain or shine just like they did in 2004.

Yeah..lol I am one of those 5 million beta players that played, over 4 tests .. I played 3 days total. To easy for me. Only time I died was I jumped through a window... then it cost me 530g to repair.

JS comeing

MsPtibiscuit · March 2014

Originally posted by Aroukos
Originally posted by Mothanos
Originally posted by greenreen Things you overlooked. The people they originally could have had from those 20 million purchasers have changed over time. This game is not Skyrim, it costs more money to stay playing after month 1. Some don't want ESO because it's not enough like the single player games for them, they wanted co-op but not MMO. Some don't want ESO because they don't like the combat, animations, bows, inability to mob grind - anything else people have complained about including water combat - don't you remember that hideous thread. Some don't want ESO because they didn't like the Imperial class being in the pre-order or the mount or even the explorer bonus of faction change. Some don't want ESO because they introduced the cash shop for things beyond services. Some don't want ESO because they don't consider the UI MMO driven - see add on complaints and no minimap. Some don't want ESO because there are no chat bubbles, no RP server, no rubber ducks, adventure zones coming out later etc. They may have started out with the potential of 20m but it has been ticked away for varying reasons. This is of course assuming that everyone who signed up was a single entity (which can't be true) and everyone who signed up was not press or someone just looking for page views from releasing game information. I'm MMO homeless and even I jumped out. What more can you say than that. Something there resonated with me as a deal breaker even after I played the beta and it was strong enough in my gut that I didn't even login to the last beta. Left my feedback and was done.
This x10 When i played pvp i had fun in ESO, great fun ! But if you play mmo's long enough you can put off those rose tinted goggles and look at the bad parts or the less good parts and start comparing it to other mmo's on the market with a sub or even free to play / buy to play. In numerous post about ESO i said almost the same things, and it basicly boils down to average.... Some elements are even realy bad... What made Skyrim such huge succes ? think for a moment.... Mods thousands of mods..... What did Zenimax just do ? right shutting down most of the API to prevent mods, but its also an MMO wich you cannot mod like Skyrim. 1 million box sales at launch is a great succes 2 million and i call it epic succes But lets be honest here there are to many mmo's out there that offer same qaulity gameplay for less money. And people aint stupid after seeing all Sub based mmo's going free to play. If ESO was that beacon of hope that would blow away all comptitiion in both PVP and PVE then yes it might have pulled off something spectacular. But from the UI to Animations to the stupid phasing where your friends just disapear if they made a diffrent choice is making this mmo already lose many many many players. But you can dream !! altough what diffrence does it make if it sells 1 million or 4 million ? Your going to add all those players to you friend list ? you wont even see them on your server as they all play on diffrent campaings or shards or phased out. And believe me when i say that if ESO had 2 million preorders it would be all over the net for us to see. That there is no information on the net makes me worry for Zenimax..... But i could be wrong just like you and your 10 million prediction :P Altough i think my prediction is much closer to reality. And that aint hard if you look at all recent mmo releases.
Well said. If you check pre orders (us data) you can see that they are way less than it was for SWTOR or GW2 in the same time, before release. My prediction, sales 1.5-1.8m and active subs after 1-2 months ~500k. After a year it will be a SWTOR like payment model.

Imo, it is the more realist predictions.

Guild Wars sold 3.5M in one year, and has peaks of ~0.5M players (http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/08/28/guild-wars-2s-first-birthday-by-the-numbers/), and it was B2P. I think ESO will make less than a million of sales on first month (maybe ~0.7M), and the number of players at peak will be ~0.3-0.4 after half a year. (I think W* will sell less at release, but will eventually gain players over time)

WoW is a viral abomination that was exrtemely lucky and hit the shelves at the rightest time and highest polishness while making the most of at the time one of the most famous franchises

I think you think "WoW-Vanilla == WoW now".

blythega · March 2014

This is pure fantasy. If this game goes F2P maybe but under a sub model it will never get these numbers

The content of this game will be consumed by the player base like a plague of locust within the first month. The PvP will get tiresome within 2...

My money is on the F2P in 6 months

Pigozz · March 2014

Originally posted by MsPtibiscuit

WoW is a viral abomination that was exrtemely lucky and hit the shelves at the rightest time and highest polishness while making the most of at the time one of the most famous franchises

I think you think "WoW-Vanilla == WoW now".

WoW-Vanilla taunted all kind of players that stick to it thats all.. I as well find wow vanilla the best wow

Digna · March 2014

Can someone please just lock this thread...its going nowhere. Never will. Let it die.

kitarad · March 2014

Yah lock this he is probably dancing around his computer laughing his head off at having taken us for a ride.

Muke · March 2014

Originally posted by Knotwood
http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

Here is a few statements I would like to talk about from this article:

1): "If you’re reading this, you’re probably one of the 5 million people that have registered for the ESO beta, and likely participated in one of our large beta tests."

My thoughts: That is a HUGE number of registerd beta testers, if even a fraction of them buy the game, were seeing going to see at least 5 million starting. I don't recall a game in history with this many registered beta testers. The testers numbers tend to be lower then the people who buy a game, so How many do you think are going to buy the game, if were seeing that many testers alone?

2): "Based on the existing number of our beta signups and because we anticipate that the ESO community will continue to grow after launch, we plan to add capacity to keep up with demand in both our North American and European datacenters."

My thoughts: They looked at those beta numbers and expect it to grow even larger at launch. I'm saying 10 million in the first year easily after seeing those beta registration numbers.

3): And just to be fully prepared, we are adding overflow servers in the event we get even more players on day one than we are now forecasting.

My thoughts: They have a plan to make sure there is overflow servers for millions more on day one if there is too many people. Something I think future games are going to need considering the larger number of gamers we are starting to see.

4): If player demand overwhelms our planned capacity and a queue has to be formed, we will offer waiting players the option to begin playing right away on an overflow server.

My thoughts: They are doing this part right. people don't want to wait in ques, so this is a great option. Everything you get on an overflow server will allow you to bring back to the megaservers. Only problem is you will not have a friend list because its not hooked up to the main database.

5): And as many of you have asked, the answer is yes to one additional benefit – we will offer various subscription discount packs beginning on April 4.

My thoughts: I sure hope they offer a lifetime... This game is going to be around for a very long time.

So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.

10M in 1st year, 100 in the 2nd.

Do you have the winning lottery members too by any chance?

rawfox · March 2014

Originally posted by CasaFranky
i played beta and i wont buy it.
whers the logic in 5 milion beta players and 10 million customers?!

Same here.

I see SWTOR after some bugfixes in a medivel theme.

The new Megaserver tech allows player communities to stay together when the player numbers drop, and they will be in free fall when some months have passed. SWTOR made wrong on the server thing.

Due to some better Hero inside TESO, the numbers of available players in one instance is a little higher then in SWTOR.

Bioware made some mistakes, grabbing the early Hero and tune it to their needs.

The playfields in TESO are somewhat bigger, SWTOR has big playfields as well, but both games still lack the immersion of a virtual world. Phasing is the new instancing thing aka sharding or zoning. You zone from playfield to playfield.

Maybe its the way, the engine places the objects into the world, but both games feel as vast as Metin.

When we look at their marketing strategies, we also see a lot of similarities here. Players are very eger on defending bugs and critical concepts, until reality comes into place.

Elderscroll fans may fall back to their single player experience, MMORPG fans will ride on and TESO will find its community like SWTOR does today.

TESO should be the better game in comparsion, it has the better tech and could learn from marketing and organisation problems that affected SWTOR so badly.

Nevertheless it can only be as good, as the Hero engine is, and that is not everyones pace.

rock on m/

killion81 · March 2014

Originally posted by kitarad
Yah lock this he is probably dancing around his computer laughing his head off at having taken us for a ride.

I don't think the OP is a troll. However the OP does post positive posts about ESO like it's his job... <blink>... <blink>... wait a minute...

BeansnBread · March 2014

Originally posted by killion81
Originally posted by kitarad
Yah lock this he is probably dancing around his computer laughing his head off at having taken us for a ride.

I don't think the OP is a troll. However the OP does post positive posts about ESO like it's his job... ... ... wait a minute...

I disagree with the sentiment. I don't think that anyone that was professional (as if it were their job) would post something so ridiculous and easy to counter. I think it's just someone that has been extremely enamored with the idea of the game and wants to ignite some spark in randoms that will get them to actually purchase this offering.

In other words, he isn't even getting paid for it. So what is this really? Just someone that actually believes 10 million is a realistic number of subs by years end? Yes. He, in reality, believes this. And apparently, nobody is actually having success in explaining why it is so ridiculous.

loulaki · March 2014

me and my girlfriend we took access, we already have uninstalled the game, also a lot of real friends who were in beta wont play except a guy who has a twitch channel and his company who are willing to make some streams . all have different tastes others prefer fps others prefer moba ...

laserit · March 2014

Lets see if we can get 10 million posts in this thread before the end of the year

tawess · March 2014

Ok i managed to get to around page 20 before i gave up, so if this have been brought up i am sorry.

10 million subs is not impossible... But the key factor is the asian market. Without that WoW i think sat around the 3-5 million mark.

With ESO being a very traditional MMO with a non-linear grind i am unsure how well it will sell in the asian region. But if it becomes a massive hit in those territories 10 million is not out of the question.

It will NEVER reach those numbers in the EU and US territories, not even combined. I think the "western" subs will sit at 2 within a year and then suffer the normal churn.

st3v3b0 · March 2014

This has got to be the most ridiculous thread for ESO I've seen yet LOL

5 million is not a one-day total that is in TOTAL since they started beta. That counts (as many have already stated) people using multiple emails and also the free key give a ways.

It is simply ludacris to think this game will approach anywhere close to 5 million in retail sales much less than 10 million.

[Deleted User] · March 2014

The user and all related content has been deleted.

elitero · March 2014

This thread has so much potential ! only a couple of weeks left!

Nadia · March 2014

Originally posted by Mtibbs1989
It's not ludicrous for the game to obtain 5,000,000 - 10,000,000. World of Warcraft managed to get more than that.

However, it's highly unlikely that this game will reach that amount.

WOW achieved 5 million in its first year but that included 40% subs from their China launch

July 2005, China launch, total 3.5m subs, 1.5 from China

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=5989

following a 2 million subscriber announcement on June 14th. Although it's believed that Chinese consumers are paying significantly less than Western consumers to play the title, this is still a significant and extremely impressive milestone.

Jan 2006. 5m

http://www.totalvideogames.com/World-of-Warcraft/news/WoW-Passes-5-Million-8612.html

evilastro · March 2014

Given the IP it might sell that many, but it certainly won't retain them.

sr7olsniper · March 2014

I want some of what the OP is smoking because it seems to be THE shit!

saurus123 · March 2014

Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by Mtibbs1989
It's not ludicrous for the game to obtain 5,000,000 - 10,000,000. World of Warcraft managed to get more than that.

However, it's highly unlikely that this game will reach that amount.

WOW achieved 5 million in its first year but that included 40% subs from their China launch

July 2005, China launch, total 3.5m subs, 1.5 from China

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=5989

following a 2 million subscriber announcement on June 14th. Although it's believed that Chinese consumers are paying significantly less than Western consumers to play the title, this is still a significant and extremely impressive milestone.

Jan 2006. 5m

http://www.totalvideogames.com/World-of-Warcraft/news/WoW-Passes-5-Million-8612.html

they dont have sub model in China

its pay per hour

so anyone that played 1 hour is counted as a sub in blizzard eyes

Knotwood · March 2014

Originally posted by tawess
Ok i managed to get to around page 20 before i gave up, so if this have been brought up i am sorry.

10 million subs is not impossible... But the key factor is the asian market. Without that WoW i think sat around the 3-5 million mark.

With ESO being a very traditional MMO with a non-linear grind i am unsure how well it will sell in the asian region. But if it becomes a massive hit in those territories 10 million is not out of the question.

It will NEVER reach those numbers in the EU and US territories, not even combined. I think the "western" subs will sit at 2 within a year and then suffer the normal churn.

Exactly, 10 million subs is not impossible.

What WoW had in Asian markets is made up in ESO by single player gamers who are going MMO just because of this game. The fact that there is 5 million registered beta users and that the game has evolved over the last year into a full Skyrim featured game, means that the majority of those registered users, are not MMO users, but Single player users who are going to play ESO as their next ES game, which it is.

Think about it for a minute, If asia is giving WoW 5 million subs. Elder Scrolls has 20 million single players, they do not have to branch off to asia, because thier single players are 4 times as great as WoW's Asian market, they only have to get a fraction of thier Single player base into ESO along with MMO players, for it to be the size of WoW. Thus all the Skyrim features added over the last year.

Nadia · March 2014

i wish ESO success but wont be able to get an accurate representation of subs until 3 months after launch

if Zenimax is anything like Turbine or Trion -- Zenimax wont report sub #s

Zenimax will likely only report copies sold

if Zenimax really believes in their product

then we may see announcements of subscriber retention post launch

Gravarg · March 2014

I'll be happy if there's at least ~25 players (my friends) and it stays P2P forever

I really don't care about number of players in games.

Nadia · March 2014

Originally posted by Gravarg
I'll be happy if there's at least ~25 players (my friends) and it stays P2P forever I really don't care about number of players in games.

i agree with you

thats all that matters -- friends to play with

Knotwood · March 2014

Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by Gravarg
I'll be happy if there's at least ~25 players (my friends) and it stays P2P forever I really don't care about number of players in games.

i agree with you

thats all that matters -- friends to play with

nothing wrong with having 10 million new friends? Imagine your facebook page.

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