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5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.
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I believe he is really just asking for prediction using his formula. If only he did not put the /agreed on his own post which made him sound like he's talking to himself lol.
SOLA - www.solaguild.com
(christian guild. Being christian is not required for membership though)
This thread is exactly why I was trying to stay away from ESO subforums in the lead up to launch. Over excitement and over support to the point of being delusional. I saw the thread title pop up and I couldn't resist seeing the rest of it for myself. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad, especially the part where the OP agrees with himself. On the plus side he seems to be one of the only people doing that, so a little credit is due to the other ESO fanboys I suppose.
I wonder... good point... maybe the mods should look into this. This isn't the first time something like this has happened.
that is the key right there. also just because you have 10 or 20 million people that bought and play your game doesn't mean they all play it currently.
if ESO was B2P i might consider the possibility more but i just don't see 10 million active subs by then end of the year lol
again, if that happened it would be by far the most successful mmo to ever launch in the west destroying the success wow ever had by a large margin.
is that a reasonable prediction? at this point i would say no.
then again, i see all kind of unreasonable negative opinions about ESO around here so its not a big deal really.
so what about the countless negative posts that are just as ridiculous as this?
sure this thread is no better than those but this is just one thread and i haven't seen too many others like it.
if i was to make a thread claiming ESO will only have 10k subs a month after launch i bet there wouldn't be the same uproar you see over this post.
i also bet many would agree with me lol
5 million registered beta players does not mean 5 million people played beta. Anyone who signed up for beta got an invite, and invites to subsequent betas.
Assuming 5 million beta players actually participated in at least one beta event, does not mean 5 million people will play at launch.
Assuming 5 million beta players participated in more than one event(myself) does not mean 5 million will play at launch(I wont be).
10 million in a year you say? So what youre saying is that this IS the WoW killer? about 7.5 million are playing WoW right now, give or take(I cannot remember the # from the quarterly statement from activision). 10 million > 7.5 Based on your guestimation, more people will be playing ESO than WoW...ESO will become the new guy to beat? HIGHLY doubt it. It has received much praise but equally as much criticism.
Not to mention, I highly doubt there are enough people actively playing MMOs to fill out all of the games, especially the big name ones. Consider games like EVE, Rift, (I wont mention Tera), WoW, GW2, Neverwinter, and Wildstar.
We know about 7.5 million play WoW.
We know something like 3 or 4 million actively play GW2(according to the last numbers they released end of year 2013 I think..I could be slightly off).
Rift can't have more than a few hundred thousand, same with Neverwinter and Eve.
Wildstar is a wildcard, it may be a few hundred thousand for several million.
My point is, that across the MMO genre, Id say there are about 12-15 million people playing. I don't think think that ESO will alone eat up nearly 70% of that playerbase. Not with WoW and Wildstar. And no, Diablo 3 is not an MMO. My guess is that ESO will be lucky, LUCKY, if it gets 1 or 2 million. And LUCKY if it retains half of it in a year. I think its gameplay and niché will attract a loyal group of people like EVE and keep them. But it will be hardpressed to garner curious traditional MMO gamers. Wildstar will take those folks.
1. ESO is nowhere near the quality of a singleplayer ES game (not even Skyrim, which was probably the lowest in term of quality). I like ESO, but the game will never get the same quality of a singleplayer game (and that's why, for me, ESO shouldn't have tried to make a solo-PvE experience)
Thinking the whole 20M players of Skyrim will buy ESO to replace Skyrim is just plain dumb, because only TES VI (Redguard ?) will replace Skyrim for players.
2. OP, is it your first MMO launch ?
I'm sorry, but I feel the same kind of excitement I had for GW2. Some of your sentences are things I could have wrote 2 years ago, when I still had $55 in my backpocket. The sensation of new, bright, shinny game before actually playing it is a tricky feeling, and that's why a lot of people are excited to play a game, but doesn't play more than 10 minutes when they can finally play it.
I'm not saying you should hate the game, but you should really get off the hype train. By overhyping yourself, worst can only happen.
3. Multi-accountig to agree to your own message... Really ? Really, I mean fucking really ?
This thread is now at 39 pages !
Incontrovertible proof that sensationalism attracts far, far more attention than any meaningful discussion, lol
ESO is by no means a bad game. It seems to be catering to cosole dynamics a bit, but that's not really a weakness, just the direction they decided to go in. It seems a bit....odd to me to make a game based on a best selling single player (and thus PvE) game and put the focus on PvP, but hey, I only played beta for two weekends and never made it to the PvP aspects. Maybe they're great.
But I just don't see 10 million subscribers. There are a finite number of MMORPG players in the world, and to get that, ESO would have to pull long-time, hardcore players from other, established games. That can be very difficult to do since they have thousands of hours and tons of money already invested in that other game. (Huh....WoW starts to sound like Scientology when you think of it like that...) To pull those players you will need to offer them something truly new and innovative. ESO is a good game, but it is just not that new or innovative.
I wouldn't be surprised if it went F2P in a year. (At which point I would probably play it, since it is, after all, a pretty good game.)
10 Million...off corse, who believes in it. If it was F2P or B2P and even with this scenario I still dont have faith in it.
Anyway it is not a bad game but 10 M....LOLOLOLOL
Im a huge ESO fan and I think the game is going to be great and successful, and be the game that finally shuts everyone up about F2P and prove that the sub model is still viable. There will be plenty of subs for this game across all platforms, but 10 million? I dont see that, and it doesnt have to be that. Its also irrelevant how many subs they have and how much money the company makes, as long as they are above the bar where they're making money and they're pushing out new content. That is really all that should matter on the financial side of things to gamers. I have no idea why MMO players have over the last few years become budding arm chair economists, but the whole thing is stupid.
This game will be a success in my eyes, as long as they can keep the sub model and keep out the P2W swine and bored soccer moms and their 5 annoying kids, and prevent it from turning this into a really craptastic game. Its not, and it doesnt have to be. Sub FTW.
It doesn't shut anyone one up about F2P because just like GW2, ESO has as many detractors as fans. We shall see what it does on consoles because I don't know how many sub games consoles have. I do know they have paid services, but that is more like a portal to get to many games, not just one.
I think what ESO will do is either put the nail in the coffin or continue on life-support the P2P game model. The reason being only EVE and WoW are truly P2P hits, the rest all died on the vine.
Considering that WoW (still the biggest by a long shot) is a sub model and arguably the two largetst AAA MMO launches this year will both be sub modles, I don't see how its on life-support..........
Life support? The game hasnt even launched yet and already its dying? That would almost be hilarious if it wasnt so mind boggling.
I never said ESO wont have people who bash it, thats the main reason why this forum exists for the most part. But the F2P seems to constantly question P2P as a viable business strategy, and the main argument is that no new games are coming out that can use the sub model and succeed. If ESO does succeed, it proves all of them wrong. Its simple as that really.
In fact FF14 already did prove the sub model is viable. I wish more games would pile on.
It is on life support due to the fact the other games came out as P2P, only to change quickly. Games such as Rift, TSW, TOR, and I could go on. The point being WoW and EVE are the outlyers, since they were the first games and they are still going strong. What recent game was P2P that continues to be P2P after a year or two? I can't name one and probably neither can you and that is why the P2P model is life support.
Looks like you thought you were on your alt account while agreeing with your own post.....
It took Rift quite a while to go F2P, it was certainly not "quickly." SWTOR is evreryone's go-to flop, and TSW was never anything more than niche. The ironic part is that SWTOR currently has a respectable amount of actual subscribers. Bad games flopping upon release does not mean the sub model is dead, it means the game was shit.
The way I see it, the games you mentioned and a lot of the AAA mmo's that have launched and gone from sub to F2P are either just not very good games, or they could be decent games if not for one or two glaring and obvious defects. There's absolutely no reason why a decent made MMO with a strong IP can not make more money selling subs than what they could make by going F2P. Because that's really what its about, gamers tend to lose perspective on this. The only reason why a sub game would go F2P is because they determined they would make more money by doing so. It doesnt have to mean the game is failing or whatever it is most of you think. If the game pulls enough subs to be more profitable to continue with the sub model as opposed to going F2P, the game will remain sub based.
Not to mention a lot of AAA games go freemium with massive restrictions on their F2P players. So in effect, making it more like an extended trial than anything else as a way to gain more subs.
Viral Marketing is a tough job but someone has to do it.
Rift was a WoW clone. Good game, but a clone. We know how those end up. TSW has the worst PvP I've played, therefore no longevity. Swtor is a clone with failed pvp (Illum) and terrible optimization. ESO is a much better game.
After 15 months of Wushu, I am very happy to see a standard sub model.
Same can be said about ESO if we begin to cherry pick faults.
Ughh not this BS again...how many times this has been discussed? only because Asians pay per hour doesn't mean their subscription is irrelevant compared to western subscribers. In the end Asians end up paying even more on monthly basis.
And by the way it is 10 million not 7.
And Wushu is a niche game too.