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retention predictions

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  • rawfoxrawfox Member UncommonPosts: 788

    My prediction would be based on a comparsion to SWTOR.

     

    We have nearly the exact same marketing here as well as game mechanics, grafix, technics.

    Due to the StarWars IP, the sales have been higher then with any other IP.

    That said, TESO may reach 25-35% of the SWTOR sales due to the successfull marketing strategies alone.

    We will see ...

     

  • AzzrasAzzras Member UncommonPosts: 407
    Originally posted by Otakun
    Originally posted by Azzras
    Originally posted by Otakun
    Originally posted by Azzras
    Originally posted by alexhpy98721
    Originally posted by Soki123
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    12 mil on pc, lol, that's funny.

    If they had a good number you would have seen an announcement....

    So far they say more Imperial Editions were sold compared to normal ones, if that is true my guess is not that many people bought the game besides the TES fans who got the Imperial Edition.

    But we`ll wait and see.... either way it will be a fun game for a month, i will only decide to buy more time if they can actually add content fast like the promised otherwise i`ll just get 1 more month in like 6 months and so on...  so its up to them.

     

    EDIT: I doubt they went over 2-2.5 mil at best... if they got more its really good news.

    I thought they were a private company.  If they are private, they are not obligated to report numbers to share holders.

    I never understood people's fascination with this anyway. 

    Because who wants to play a massively multiplayer game that hardly anyone owns? People are drawn to popularity and early signs of such will draw in people who were on the fence. The fact they aren't saying anything means the numbers are low or they are holding off for the official release date to announce it. 

    To do this you have to follow a companies financial reports?

    Personally, I just play the game till it's not fun anymore.  I don't need a CEO to justify my game time.

    If the MMO has hardly any players in it, you can't figure that out without someone putting numbers in your face? 

    Nope, still don't understand the fascination and your reasoning is flawed.

    Uhh .. yeah, it's called the real world, sir. That's why we have the stock market and investors that need to be proven how well a game is doing with numbers. Having blind faith in a company or a product is just asking to get screwed over by companies like EA. Maybe you need to step outside of your parents house and see how the world works. 

    ???

    YOU ARE A GAMER.  YOU ARE NOT THE INVESTOR/SHAREHOLDER.

    Your logic is still flawed.  You DO NOT NEED investors to tell you if the game is fun and if people are still playing it.  YOU CAN DO THAT BY ACTUALLY LOOKING AT THE GAME YOU'RE PLAYING.

    What are you going to do if ZOS doesn't have to report numbers?   Aren't they a private company?  If they are private....NO INVESTORS...NO REPORTS TO INVESTORS.

    With that said, I'll not report your insult about the parents' house comment this time.  Insult me again and I will.  I worked hard for what I have, and I don't care to have someone insult me while hiding behind a virtual wall.  This is your only warning.

    Good day.

     

    image
  • arctarusarctarus Member UncommonPosts: 2,581

    my prediction, about the same as LOTR.

    Ok at first, and downhill 3 months later ....

     

    RIP Orc Choppa

  • ArndushArndush Member Posts: 303
    Originally posted by rawfox

    My prediction would be based on a comparsion to SWTOR.

     

    We have nearly the exact same marketing here as well as game mechanics, grafix, technics.

    Due to the StarWars IP, the sales have been higher then with any other IP.

    That said, TESO may reach 25-35% of the SWTOR sales due to the successfull marketing strategies alone.

    We will see ...

     

    Huh? The game mechanics are no where near similar. Nor are the graphics. In fact, the only thing SWTOR and ESO have in common is fully voiced stories. Combat is different, Crafting is different, raiding is different, pvp is different. Graphic styles are different.

    Also, ESO is launching on PC/MAC/PS4/Xbox One. While SWTOR only launched on PC. Skyrim sold 20 million copies. What Star Wars game ever sold half that much?

    Other than being MMOs based on a famous IP and fully voiced stories, these two games have very, very little in common.

  • HoiPoloiHoiPoloi Member UncommonPosts: 98

    If ESO isn't a mega-hit, the question is will they maintain the sub and please their devoted fans (which, according to this forum, they obviously have).

    Or, will they try to make their money back faster by going F2P and expanding the audience.

    Rithwis, Righteous Golem of Camelot | Skritha, Orc Archer of Tamriel | Bloodwod, Sawbones of Auraxis | Thrumdi, Blue Norn of Tyria | Gwidwod, Spider of the Ettenmoors | Gideon Slack, Hunter of Alsius

  • BeansnBreadBeansnBread Member EpicPosts: 7,254
    Originally posted by HoiPoloi

    If ESO isn't a mega-hit, the question is will they maintain the sub and please their devoted fans (which, according to this forum, they obviously have).

    Or, will they try to make their money back faster by going F2P and expanding the audience.

    Based on how successful and how much money SWTOR is making right now, I know where I'd put my money.

  • DocBrodyDocBrody Member UncommonPosts: 1,926

    this game history reminds me so much of swtor..

     

    tons of voiceovers...

    first level 50 on day 1...

    starting as subscription plus box MMO...

  • AeonbladesAeonblades Member Posts: 2,083

    ITT: People who don't know math, think vgchartz (lol, they don't even track digital copies which is the majority sales on PC) is a reliable source of info, speculate on something they know nothing about etc...

     

    Either it will do well or it won't. Your "professional" analysis using anecdotes and made up data just makes this entire community look horrible.

     

    If retention is good, it will do fine, if retention is bad and it goes f2p, it will do fine. Is this everyone's first MMO launch or something?

    Currently Playing: ESO and FFXIV
    Have played: You name it
    If you mention rose tinted glasses, you better be referring to Mitch Hedberg.

  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591

    Hehehehe....... LMAO

     

    Nothing like a topic of retention predictions or when/if a game will go F2P, to bring out the best in people

     

    image

     

    edit: Gee...   post #1212...    Maybe the mayans were thinking about the end of ESO rather than the end of the world, or maybe both image

     

    Happy April Fools

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • Rush84Rush84 Member Posts: 62
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

     HAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAH

     

     

    NO

  • xpsyncxpsync Member EpicPosts: 1,854

    I think it'll be doing fine, i'm considering sticking around with this one for quite awhile.

    It'll be doing better than most other mmo's come the 3 month mark.

    I've read so many time people say the swtor was written for them, i think i know what they mean now. This mmo has many items checked on my wish list, overall it's flat out fun playing in Tamerial with other people.

    My faith is my shield! - Turalyon 2022

    Your legend ends here and now! - (Battles Won Long Ago)

    Currently Playing; Dragonflight and SWG:L
  • dotdotdashdotdotdash Member UncommonPosts: 488

    The fact is that Bethesda, much like CCP, will only report sales and subscription numbers in the ascendency as they are a privately held company. That is to say that they aren't going to talk about that information unless they have an angle to play. Look at how ArenaNet have been coy with ongoing GW2 numbers, yet were perfectly happy to shout about their "best selling MMO of all time" when it was true.

  • fivorothfivoroth Member UncommonPosts: 3,916

    What exactly have you seen? How did you come up with that 12%? Any reasoning behind it or just shooting for a random number? Why not 13% or 11%?

    I can't say what the retention rate will be. I don't even know what the industry average is. Basically - no clue!

    Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.

  • p4ttythep3rf3ctp4ttythep3rf3ct Member UncommonPosts: 194
    Originally posted by Damedius
    Originally posted by taus01

     

    1. 30 Months: No one talks about the game any more. It joined the ranks of SWTOR and Secret World struggling to stay alive.

    SWTOR is one of the most successful mmos out right now.

    All the hipster douchebags like to say it failed so they can pretend they are cool and part of the in crowd.

    The fact is it makes lots of money and they are constantly expanding the game and adding new features.

    Apparently I am a hipster douchebag, but here it is...

    SWToR failed, failed, failed, failed, failed.  I was there before and at launch.  It failed and it failed hard.  That it continues to survive today is irrelevant to the fact that the game is a mere shadow of what was anticipated.  Then it went F2P which only nailed more nails into the fail-coffin.  In so much, it failed and there is no possible recovery for such a failure.  

    But hey, I'm talking social failure.  If you want to define anything that breaks even or makes a profit as a non-failure, go right ahead.  Business will not disagree with you.

     

    That's just, like, my opinion, man.

  • NadiaNadia Member UncommonPosts: 11,798
    Originally posted by dotdotdash

    The fact is that Bethesda, much like CCP, will only report sales and subscription numbers in the ascendency as they are a privately held company. That is to say that they aren't going to talk about that information unless they have an angle to play. Look at how ArenaNet have been coy with ongoing GW2 numbers, yet were perfectly happy to shout about their "best selling MMO of all time" when it was true.

    i will be surprised if we ever hear sub #s

    Trion(RIFT)  and Turbine (LOTR) never publicly announced sub#s

  • fs23otmfs23otm Member RarePosts: 506

    I can make numbers up also...

    2 million boxes sold... increases to 10 million by the end of year due to word of mouth.

    Retention is 85%.. making 8.5 million users by year end surpassing WoW. 

     

     

  • DJJazzyDJJazzy Member UncommonPosts: 2,053
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi

    I'm using data from skyrim sales, adjustment made to people who who wopuld never pay for a subscription and the adjustement of mmorpg players.

     

    12million boxes /digital sales a good estimate if you look at skyrim sales and the ES franchise as a whole.

    you can't do a 1 to 1 ratio of skyrim sales to ESO. There are quite a lot of people who won't buy the mmo but who purchased Skyrim (me for example)

  • SomeOldBlokeSomeOldBloke Member UncommonPosts: 2,167
    Originally posted by HoiPoloi

    If ESO isn't a mega-hit, the question is will they maintain the sub and please their devoted fans (which, according to this forum, they obviously have).

    Or, will they try to make their money back faster by going F2P and expanding the audience.

    Pleasing fans doesn't always pay the bills...

  • AroukosAroukos Member Posts: 571
    Originally posted by fs23otm

    I can make numbers up also...

    2 million boxes sold... increases to 10 million by the end of year due to word of mouth.

    Retention is 85%.. making 8.5 million users by year end surpassing WoW. 

     

     

    I can make numbers up also...

    2m boxes sold...increases to 10m by the end of the year due to word of mouth.

    Retention is 1%..making 100k users by year end surpassing The Secret World.

    No offense but i really love these estimation threads :)

  • Kayo45Kayo45 Member Posts: 293
    Originally posted by mbd1968
    Originally posted by HoiPoloi

    If ESO isn't a mega-hit, the question is will they maintain the sub and please their devoted fans (which, according to this forum, they obviously have).

    Or, will they try to make their money back faster by going F2P and expanding the audience.

    Pleasing fans doesn't always pay the bills...

    It doesnt take much to just "pay the bills" either. IMO all these converted MMO's were results of pure greed. Has nothing to do with shutting down if they dont convert or any last ditch effort at staying above water. They simply reach a point in the subs where their research tells them they'd make more money going F2P ... current subscribers be damned.

    I never understood why it absolutely HAS to be between the two (or that god awful hybrid). Asia has a pay as you play version ... that seems like an excellent way of still having players not "waste their money" which is what F2P'rs always complain about against P2P. It even guarantees there wont be any freeloaders taking in everything they can for free. Hell even if they decide to implement F2P as an "option" like most converts do, they can keep them in their own secluded servers ... I personally dont care what or how some dude got some item in a separate F2P server, he may as well be in a completely different MMO. So long as those who are subbed get it all through some form gameplay, id be happy.

  • RusqueRusque Member RarePosts: 2,785
    I heard that only one person bought the game, so retention hinges entirely on if this one person will sub or not.
  • mgilbrtsnmgilbrtsn Member EpicPosts: 3,430
    I have no information, but my incllination would be to think that sales went pretty well.  Retention is always the problem though.  I imagine it will be llike every other game and it will slowly decline until new content comes along, like others have said.  Then it will hit FTP and another surge will happen.  My guess is that this one will be around for a few years.

    I self identify as a monkey.

  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx Member UncommonPosts: 2,039
    Originally posted by p4ttythep3rf3ct
    Originally posted by Damedius
    Originally posted by taus01

     

    1. 30 Months: No one talks about the game any more. It joined the ranks of SWTOR and Secret World struggling to stay alive.

    SWTOR is one of the most successful mmos out right now.

    All the hipster douchebags like to say it failed so they can pretend they are cool and part of the in crowd.

    The fact is it makes lots of money and they are constantly expanding the game and adding new features.

    Apparently I am a hipster douchebag, but here it is...

    SWToR failed, failed, failed, failed, failed.  I was there before and at launch.  It failed and it failed hard.  That it continues to survive today is irrelevant to the fact that the game is a mere shadow of what was anticipated.  Then it went F2P which only nailed more nails into the fail-coffin.  In so much, it failed and there is no possible recovery for such a failure.  

    But hey, I'm talking social failure.  If you want to define anything that breaks even or makes a profit as a non-failure, go right ahead.  Business will not disagree with you.

     

    And that is all the matters because if we start putting too much stock into what everyone here thinks about MMOS...every single one of those is a failure.

    The only thing in the end matters is if ESO did good business..your personal feelings are irrelevant.

  • dotdotdashdotdotdash Member UncommonPosts: 488


    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    And that is all the matters because if we start putting too much stock into what everyone here thinks about MMOS...every single one of those is a failure.

    The only thing in the end matters is if ESO did good business..your personal feelings are irrelevant.


    Failure is as much a spectrum as it is an absolute.

    Take SWTOR, for example. It was salvaged from failure. SWTOR launched as a subscription MMO with an expectation to be the dominant game in the market at this point in its life cycle. It failed to live up to those targets. EA then relaunched it as a F2P game, where it found more traction and is now arguably one of the stronger performing titles in the field. It failed, then it changed its business model, then it succeeded.

    In my humble opinion, The Elder Scrolls Online is going to fail as a subscription game relative to the expectations of the studio. I believe that we may well see the subscription fee dropped for access but the box fee remain, and that ZMO will implement some form of premium currency as well as maintain an optional subscription fee. They may even drop the box price. Whatever flavour they go for, the game will succeed under a F2P model because it's not THAT bad. Just an opinion, however.

  • fivorothfivoroth Member UncommonPosts: 3,916
    Originally posted by Aroukos
    Originally posted by fs23otm

    I can make numbers up also...

    2 million boxes sold... increases to 10 million by the end of year due to word of mouth.

    Retention is 85%.. making 8.5 million users by year end surpassing WoW. 

     

     

    I can make numbers up also...

    2m boxes sold...increases to 10m by the end of the year due to word of mouth.

    Retention is 1%..making 100k users by year end surpassing The Secret World.

    No offense but i really love these estimation threads :)

    Haha, true. It's just complete bullshit. Waste of forum space. The OP (and similar threads) are basically asking us to predict the future.

    The ONLY thing that I can see coming out of this thread is trolling and flame wars. Is that what you want OP? You will have people who will say that the game will be dead and will go F2P before it launches!!! And then you will have other people who will say it will have 20m subs. 

    Such threads should be closed as they only invite trolling and flame wars. The very definition of flame baiting.

    Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.

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