I personally think it will sell a lot better than what people seem to think on consoles. Wouldnt surprise me if box sales were in the millions total regardless of the usual "console gamers wont play a sub argument". Subscribers I have no idea though.
Since the servers are down I will start off with some BOLD predictions about the game's future. In a former life I was Nostradamus, so use caution when you try convince everyone that I am wrong.
1. This game will go free to play....... NEVER!!!!
That's right, I said it. It is NEEEEVER going free to play. It currently has a ginormous subscriber base (1-2 million at least) and the game wont lose enough of that subscriber base to warrant the free to play move. Also, going free to play will devalue the brand long term. So all you fence sitters waiting for that fateful day when the game no longer costs a monthly fee can move along. It will never happen.
2. ZeniMax/Bethesda will get their act together and deliver on providing a smooth, glich-free, stable server with relatively few bugs left by the end of April BEFORE they try to add more content and completely bork the server!!!
I am SUPREEEMELY confident that this will happen. Well, maybe not supremely. I am sublimely confident this will happen. Perhaps I am just subliminally confident about this. Ok, maybe it is just hope, but I am predicting it!
3. Player and guild housing will be added by the end of the year!
Why wouldn't they do it, right?
I will limit myself to only those three predictions at the moment. Channeling my inner Nostradamus is a bit taxing.
With such terrible lag on eu servers i dont think many of euro players will keep on subbing.
The point...why should i have to pay a monthly fee if i get the same ping a free to play game gives me.
Besides i enjoyed neverwinter more and it had a lot less ping than eso.
Originally posted by prowessHeroEngine doesn't come with the ability to do housing... so that one's wrong.
Yeah, except it does. You can tell that it does by the fact that SWTOR is introducing player housing in their next expansion.
^^ That
Technically, SWTOR isn't really using HeroEngine. They got their hands on the unfinished beta version of it and had to custom code most of it from the ground up, so really, that bastard halfbreed is lucky to even run let alone have a housing option running.
But yeah, RePop is using full HeroEngine and will have various forms of housing out of the box, so what more proof do you need that HeroEngine can do housing?
ESO doesn't use the Hero engine.
Repop is now using the latest Hero engine 2 Quartz version and not that archaic bastardized version that Bioware cannibalised and yes it can do housing rather nicely thank you very much.
For players who are so enamored with the game, you sure seem to have a lot of time to post nonsense on the forums.
If I am truly enjoying a game, forum posting is the last thing on my mind.
Did you bother reading the part of the OP that stated he was starting this thread due to the servers being down?
I've never understood that argument personally. How long does posting take, a couple minutes at most? You could do that while waiting for a friend, when taking a break so your hands don't fall off, during a particularly long loading screen... all sorts of ways. I can't imagine playing a game SO MUCH that you don't even have time to poke into forums for a minute or two.
... and a lot of people read/post at work, which is a lot easier to do than play a full game. :P
If they had 2 million or more, they'd have announced it so far. My big concern regarding population is the apparent low interest in pvp. As discussed in other threads, the fact that only a small few are full is indicative of either really low population or really low interest in it.
Perhaps people are waiting till 50, but GW2 had tons of queues from launch. Makes me wonder if they even have 1 million sales.
For players who are so enamored with the game, you sure seem to have a lot of time to post nonsense on the forums.
If I am truly enjoying a game, forum posting is the last thing on my mind.
Did you bother reading the part of the OP that stated he was starting this thread due to the servers being down?
I've never understood that argument personally. How long does posting take, a couple minutes at most? You could do that while waiting for a friend, when taking a break so your hands don't fall off, during a particularly long loading screen... all sorts of ways. I can't imagine playing a game SO MUCH that you don't even have time to poke into forums for a minute or two.
... and a lot of people read/post at work, which is a lot easier to do than play a full game. :P
I'm watching the footy on SKY atm,it's odd I seem to hit the forums when I'm multi tasking maybe I'm just odd that way.
To say it won't go f2p is silly, of course it will.
It's a great mmo but every modern mmo goes free to play. No mmo has ever gone free to play before 11 months though so it's going to take at least a year.
If they had 2 million or more, they'd have announced it so far. My big concern regarding population is the apparent low interest in pvp. As discussed in other threads, the fact that only a small few are full is indicative of either really low population or really low interest in it.
Perhaps people are waiting till 50, but GW2 had tons of queues from launch. Makes me wonder if they even have 1 million sales.
I also doubt that we have 2 million players playing right now.
Definitely a bold claim and one I certainly cannot agree with. I have to look at history, the pattern of most "AAA" MMO releases in the last few years and all of the current struggles Zenimax is having with their game. The MMORPG market is saturated and volatile, and you have to have a pretty premium product and a super-loyal, long-standing fan-base to keep a sub-based model in tact (there are some extremely weak exceptions). Point is, while I don't know exactly what will happen or when, your claims do feel far fetched to me. All that being said, I certainly wish them and their fans the best in keeping the game running and fun.
If they had 2 million or more, they'd have announced it so far. My big concern regarding population is the apparent low interest in pvp. As discussed in other threads, the fact that only a small few are full is indicative of either really low population or really low interest in it.
Perhaps people are waiting till 50, but GW2 had tons of queues from launch. Makes me wonder if they even have 1 million sales.
I also doubt that we have 2 million players playing right now.
if they were able to announce that they had 1 million players then that would be a huge positive, personally, i doubt they have even 750,000 and probably barely 500,000. This could be for several reasons though, the launch has been problematic, particularly for players in NA, many might well be holding off registering their game keys until the game has stabilised, others might well be holding off on buying the game yet for the very same reasons, i am not sure that the pricing model used is that much of a drag on the game, nor the fact that its P2P, though that may well be an issue when its released on consoles, and may well be a huge contributing factor as to why console pre-orders were so low. The next few weeks should be interesting, particularly if Zenimax continue to remain silent on the issue.
If they have any more nights like tonight - sorry, bad prediction.
No matter how kick ass your game is - the most important factor is - server stability - lack of this will kill even the best of games.
True story. Warhammer Online lost tons of subs the first month due to instability and bugs, it never recovered despite becoming a great game for the next year or so before committing suicide via mega-rat-patch.
Warhammer also had a bunch of missing content that was promised in beta (4 capital cities missing which never got added, 4 classes missing which were added in like 2 months after launch, etc) and took several weeks to several months to get just about anything fixed. That was IF they ever even bothered to fix it. It also had some of the worst class balance issues of any game for the first several months, basically BW bomb squads or gtfo. As far as stability, well they had almost nightly complete server crashes due to fortress battles causing the servers to come crashing down, which resulted in them just removing fortresses altogether (which was a big draw of the game for PvPers), not even bothering t fix them, and then putting them back in nearly 2 years later when the pop was so low that the crashes didnt happen anymore.
Other major bugs:
- Mail taking 5+ minutes just to load your mailbox (2+ weeks to fix)
- broken pets (never fixed)
- broken stealth (never fixed)
- about 50% of the PvE content beyond the starter area bugged (some fixed, some not)
- scenario queues not working at all (recurring issue for the first couple months)
- when the queues actually did work you had a lot of people getting placed into empty scenarios (still happened until the day the servers shut down)
I'll take ESO's buggy quests here and there and the 1st real stability issue in 2 weeks over all of that.
Thanks for the history lesson....the point still remains. Just because 2 million people bought the game does not mean 2 million people will continue to pay after 30 days.
If they have any more nights like tonight - sorry, bad prediction.
No matter how kick ass your game is - the most important factor is - server stability - lack of this will kill even the best of games.
True story. Warhammer Online lost tons of subs the first month due to instability and bugs, it never recovered despite becoming a great game for the next year or so before committing suicide via mega-rat-patch.
Warhammer also had a bunch of missing content that was promised in beta (4 capital cities missing which never got added, 4 classes missing which were added in like 2 months after launch, etc) and took several weeks to several months to get just about anything fixed. That was IF they ever even bothered to fix it. It also had some of the worst class balance issues of any game for the first several months, basically BW bomb squads or gtfo. As far as stability, well they had almost nightly complete server crashes due to fortress battles causing the servers to come crashing down, which resulted in them just removing fortresses altogether (which was a big draw of the game for PvPers), not even bothering t fix them, and then putting them back in nearly 2 years later when the pop was so low that the crashes didnt happen anymore.
Other major bugs:
- Mail taking 5+ minutes just to load your mailbox (2+ weeks to fix)
- broken pets (never fixed)
- broken stealth (never fixed)
- about 50% of the PvE content beyond the starter area bugged (some fixed, some not)
- scenario queues not working at all (recurring issue for the first couple months)
- when the queues actually did work you had a lot of people getting placed into empty scenarios (still happened until the day the servers shut down)
I'll take ESO's buggy quests here and there and the 1st real stability issue in 2 weeks over all of that.
Thanks for the history lesson....the point still remains. Just because 2 million people bought the game does not mean 2 million people will continue to pay after 30 days.
Op and others are pulling numbers out of thin air. there has been no official annoucement regarding 2 million playerbase.
If they have any more nights like tonight - sorry, bad prediction.
No matter how kick ass your game is - the most important factor is - server stability - lack of this will kill even the best of games.
True story. Warhammer Online lost tons of subs the first month due to instability and bugs, it never recovered despite becoming a great game for the next year or so before committing suicide via mega-rat-patch.
Warhammer also had a bunch of missing content that was promised in beta (4 capital cities missing which never got added, 4 classes missing which were added in like 2 months after launch, etc) and took several weeks to several months to get just about anything fixed. That was IF they ever even bothered to fix it. It also had some of the worst class balance issues of any game for the first several months, basically BW bomb squads or gtfo. As far as stability, well they had almost nightly complete server crashes due to fortress battles causing the servers to come crashing down, which resulted in them just removing fortresses altogether (which was a big draw of the game for PvPers), not even bothering t fix them, and then putting them back in nearly 2 years later when the pop was so low that the crashes didnt happen anymore.
Other major bugs:
- Mail taking 5+ minutes just to load your mailbox (2+ weeks to fix)
- broken pets (never fixed)
- broken stealth (never fixed)
- about 50% of the PvE content beyond the starter area bugged (some fixed, some not)
- scenario queues not working at all (recurring issue for the first couple months)
- when the queues actually did work you had a lot of people getting placed into empty scenarios (still happened until the day the servers shut down)
I'll take ESO's buggy quests here and there and the 1st real stability issue in 2 weeks over all of that.
Thanks for the history lesson....the point still remains. Just because 2 million people bought the game does not mean 2 million people will continue to pay after 30 days.
Op and others are pulling numbers out of thin air. there has been no official annoucement regarding 2 million playerbase.
I remember seeing one post on here before claiming the game would have ten fold that number and would out sell Skyrim, I feel these people need to take their rose tinted glasses off and come back to reality.
Since the servers are down I will start off with some BOLD predictions about the game's future. In a former life I was Nostradamus, so use caution when you try convince everyone that I am wrong.
1. This game will go free to play....... NEVER!!!!
That's right, I said it. It is NEEEEVER going free to play. It currently has a ginormous subscriber base (1-2 million at least) and the game wont lose enough of that subscriber base to warrant the free to play move. Also, going free to play will devalue the brand long term. So all you fence sitters waiting for that fateful day when the game no longer costs a monthly fee can move along. It will never happen.
2. ZeniMax/Bethesda will get their act together and deliver on providing a smooth, glich-free, stable server with relatively few bugs left by the end of April BEFORE they try to add more content and completely bork the server!!!
I am SUPREEEMELY confident that this will happen. Well, maybe not supremely. I am sublimely confident this will happen. Perhaps I am just subliminally confident about this. Ok, maybe it is just hope, but I am predicting it!
3. Player and guild housing will be added by the end of the year!
Why wouldn't they do it, right?
I will limit myself to only those three predictions at the moment. Channeling my inner Nostradamus is a bit taxing.
1. This game will go free to play...its just a matter of time, how successful it is on console, and the fact that this isn't the environment and conditions we were in when Everquest and World Warcraft were released (not very many quality MMORPGs to play (that werent already used up and hung out to dry) and a better economy).
2. Zenimax better get their act together as soon as possible and address the bugs, subscription issues, accidental player suspensions/bans, lag issues that should have been properly addressed during beta and they better release a substantial amount of content as their player base tires of the lame combat animations, exhausts and gets bored with PvE content, gets overly frustrated, agitated, aggrivated with imbalanced PvP issues, and levels up towards engame or their going to have to resort to going free 2 play with a cash shop sooner then they projected...
3. Player and Guild housing isn't as game transforrmative as adding alot of PvE solo/group/raid content (EQ & WoW proved this) and timely addressing balance/time issues involved in PvP solo/group/raid adventures (Good Luck with this one...as many a MMO has tried to properly address PvP only to screw it up moreso, more often then not).
4. Since this is an Elder Scrolls MMORPG; Zenimax should concentrate on adding everything players who immersed themselves into the single player series desired and dreamed of being a part of the game...in an MMORPG it gets even better; Flying Mounts, Vampire/Werewolf player created Covens/Clans, more siege weapons/player weapons, awesome spell effects/fireworks, more games/gambling/shows, cooler intoxicated/influenced/affected/diseased effects, Faires, Wandering circuses/markets/gypsies/highwaymen/bandits etc.. and so on
5. Last but not least! Without a real sense of community feel ingame you cannot have a really successful MMORPG!
If they have any more nights like tonight - sorry, bad prediction.
No matter how kick ass your game is - the most important factor is - server stability - lack of this will kill even the best of games.
True story. Warhammer Online lost tons of subs the first month due to instability and bugs, it never recovered despite becoming a great game for the next year or so before committing suicide via mega-rat-patch.
Warhammer also had a bunch of missing content that was promised in beta (4 capital cities missing which never got added, 4 classes missing which were added in like 2 months after launch, etc) and took several weeks to several months to get just about anything fixed. That was IF they ever even bothered to fix it. It also had some of the worst class balance issues of any game for the first several months, basically BW bomb squads or gtfo. As far as stability, well they had almost nightly complete server crashes due to fortress battles causing the servers to come crashing down, which resulted in them just removing fortresses altogether (which was a big draw of the game for PvPers), not even bothering t fix them, and then putting them back in nearly 2 years later when the pop was so low that the crashes didnt happen anymore.
Other major bugs:
- Mail taking 5+ minutes just to load your mailbox (2+ weeks to fix)
- broken pets (never fixed)
- broken stealth (never fixed)
- about 50% of the PvE content beyond the starter area bugged (some fixed, some not)
- scenario queues not working at all (recurring issue for the first couple months)
- when the queues actually did work you had a lot of people getting placed into empty scenarios (still happened until the day the servers shut down)
I'll take ESO's buggy quests here and there and the 1st real stability issue in 2 weeks over all of that.
Thanks for the history lesson....the point still remains. Just because 2 million people bought the game does not mean 2 million people will continue to pay after 30 days.
Op and others are pulling numbers out of thin air. there has been no official annoucement regarding 2 million playerbase.
I remember seeing one post on here before claiming the game would have ten fold that number and would out sell Skyrim, I feel these people need to take their rose tinted glasses off and come back to reality.
I remember seeing one post on here before claiming the game would have ten fold that number and would out sell Skyrim, I feel these people need to take their rose tinted glasses off and come back to reality.
Keep in mind that Skyrim sold 20 million copies! 6 million of them are core ES fans since morrowind days based off the morrowind and oblivion sales. So step on those glasses now, and realize that ES is a HUGE IP and that 6 million base is not crazy, its a fact that is backed up by fandom of previous titles! The 14 million other ES fans who started playing ES on Skyrim is the secondary market, not the primary, and the MMO world has easily 2 million floating subscribers to it. So whos got glasses now?
I remember seeing one post on here before claiming the game would have ten fold that number and would out sell Skyrim, I feel these people need to take their rose tinted glasses off and come back to reality.
Keep in mind that Skyrim sold 20 million copies! 6 million of them are core ES fans since morrowind days based off the morrowind and oblivion sales. So step on those glasses now, and realize that ES is a HUGE IP and that 6 million base is not crazy, its a fact that is backed up by fandom of previous titles! The 14 million other ES fans who started playing ES on Skyrim is the secondary market, not the primary, and the MMO world has easily 2 million floating subscribers to it. So whos got glasses now?
You can directly say you were the poster of the said thread.
I think this game will end up with Rift like numbers, I'd say a solid 1-2 million subs. The game breaking bugs are really kicking the crap out of the first month of the game though. and the fact that all the downtime hasn't really addressed most of them.
ESO is a prime example of a game that spent too much beta time playing pre-release marketing and not enough beta actually testing/reporting and fixing things.
I would predict a drop in numbers by at least 1/3 after the first month. Still a good amount of people paying to support it though. I will not say anything else on the games longevity though.
One thing I am very confident in though is that the console players will not bring the numbers up a whole lot. Certainly not more than the PC numbers. Anyone who reads any comments on site like IGN can see that console players like too cheap to pay a sub, and want everything for free. I prefer pay to play, but I just don't see the console players willing to do it.
I don't care if this goes F2P succeed or not, to me, the game is boring and sending the MMORPG back into the dark age for not exploiting the full potential of the genre.
Comments
With such terrible lag on eu servers i dont think many of euro players will keep on subbing.
The point...why should i have to pay a monthly fee if i get the same ping a free to play game gives me.
Besides i enjoyed neverwinter more and it had a lot less ping than eso.
So answer me.
in my opinion this game is better than WOW and they will not go free it seems.
in the one hand I hope it does go free subscriptions are stuped only a fast money grab.
EQN will show all these developers that you buy a game and no subscriptions with limited cash shop no cash walls is the future.
Richard Garriott says its nonsense a subscription why must you pay to play something you own.[shroud of the avatar]
hope shards has no sub. but I think it will have.
Repop is now using the latest Hero engine 2 Quartz version and not that archaic bastardized version that Bioware cannibalised and yes it can do housing rather nicely thank you very much.
Did you bother reading the part of the OP that stated he was starting this thread due to the servers being down?
Never say never.
I guess MMO players learn nothing from past examples.
But even if it goes F2P, i would still play it as long as the game provides regular content and becomes more stable.
People like OP and others need to stop using F2P as some kind of an insult.
I've never understood that argument personally. How long does posting take, a couple minutes at most? You could do that while waiting for a friend, when taking a break so your hands don't fall off, during a particularly long loading screen... all sorts of ways. I can't imagine playing a game SO MUCH that you don't even have time to poke into forums for a minute or two.
... and a lot of people read/post at work, which is a lot easier to do than play a full game. :P
If they had 2 million or more, they'd have announced it so far. My big concern regarding population is the apparent low interest in pvp. As discussed in other threads, the fact that only a small few are full is indicative of either really low population or really low interest in it.
Perhaps people are waiting till 50, but GW2 had tons of queues from launch. Makes me wonder if they even have 1 million sales.
I'm watching the footy on SKY atm,it's odd I seem to hit the forums when I'm multi tasking maybe I'm just odd that way.
It will go B2P before it goes F2P.
Hedonismbot: Your latest performance was as delectable as dipping my bottom over and over into a bath of the silkiest oils and creams.
To say it won't go f2p is silly, of course it will.
It's a great mmo but every modern mmo goes free to play. No mmo has ever gone free to play before 11 months though so it's going to take at least a year.
I also doubt that we have 2 million players playing right now.
to OP:
NO
....my bold is bigger = i win.
if they were able to announce that they had 1 million players then that would be a huge positive, personally, i doubt they have even 750,000 and probably barely 500,000. This could be for several reasons though, the launch has been problematic, particularly for players in NA, many might well be holding off registering their game keys until the game has stabilised, others might well be holding off on buying the game yet for the very same reasons, i am not sure that the pricing model used is that much of a drag on the game, nor the fact that its P2P, though that may well be an issue when its released on consoles, and may well be a huge contributing factor as to why console pre-orders were so low.
The next few weeks should be interesting, particularly if Zenimax continue to remain silent on the issue.
Thanks for the history lesson....the point still remains. Just because 2 million people bought the game does not mean 2 million people will continue to pay after 30 days.
Op and others are pulling numbers out of thin air. there has been no official annoucement regarding 2 million playerbase.
I remember seeing one post on here before claiming the game would have ten fold that number and would out sell Skyrim, I feel these people need to take their rose tinted glasses off and come back to reality.
1. This game will go free to play...its just a matter of time, how successful it is on console, and the fact that this isn't the environment and conditions we were in when Everquest and World Warcraft were released (not very many quality MMORPGs to play (that werent already used up and hung out to dry) and a better economy).
2. Zenimax better get their act together as soon as possible and address the bugs, subscription issues, accidental player suspensions/bans, lag issues that should have been properly addressed during beta and they better release a substantial amount of content as their player base tires of the lame combat animations, exhausts and gets bored with PvE content, gets overly frustrated, agitated, aggrivated with imbalanced PvP issues, and levels up towards engame or their going to have to resort to going free 2 play with a cash shop sooner then they projected...
3. Player and Guild housing isn't as game transforrmative as adding alot of PvE solo/group/raid content (EQ & WoW proved this) and timely addressing balance/time issues involved in PvP solo/group/raid adventures (Good Luck with this one...as many a MMO has tried to properly address PvP only to screw it up moreso, more often then not).
4. Since this is an Elder Scrolls MMORPG; Zenimax should concentrate on adding everything players who immersed themselves into the single player series desired and dreamed of being a part of the game...in an MMORPG it gets even better; Flying Mounts, Vampire/Werewolf player created Covens/Clans, more siege weapons/player weapons, awesome spell effects/fireworks, more games/gambling/shows, cooler intoxicated/influenced/affected/diseased effects, Faires, Wandering circuses/markets/gypsies/highwaymen/bandits etc.. and so on
5. Last but not least! Without a real sense of community feel ingame you cannot have a really successful MMORPG!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4hAVemuQXY somehow that song came to mind when I read your post o.O.
Keep in mind that Skyrim sold 20 million copies! 6 million of them are core ES fans since morrowind days based off the morrowind and oblivion sales. So step on those glasses now, and realize that ES is a HUGE IP and that 6 million base is not crazy, its a fact that is backed up by fandom of previous titles! The 14 million other ES fans who started playing ES on Skyrim is the secondary market, not the primary, and the MMO world has easily 2 million floating subscribers to it. So whos got glasses now?
You can directly say you were the poster of the said thread.
Sill have the link in bookmark (http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/408167/page/1) to bump the thread at the end of the year, to make some comparisons.
I think this game will end up with Rift like numbers, I'd say a solid 1-2 million subs. The game breaking bugs are really kicking the crap out of the first month of the game though. and the fact that all the downtime hasn't really addressed most of them.
ESO is a prime example of a game that spent too much beta time playing pre-release marketing and not enough beta actually testing/reporting and fixing things.
I would predict a drop in numbers by at least 1/3 after the first month. Still a good amount of people paying to support it though. I will not say anything else on the games longevity though.
One thing I am very confident in though is that the console players will not bring the numbers up a whole lot. Certainly not more than the PC numbers. Anyone who reads any comments on site like IGN can see that console players like too cheap to pay a sub, and want everything for free. I prefer pay to play, but I just don't see the console players willing to do it.
I don't care if this goes F2P succeed or not, to me, the game is boring and sending the MMORPG back into the dark age for not exploiting the full potential of the genre.