I would predict a drop in numbers by at least 1/3 after the first month. Still a good amount of people paying to support it though. I will not say anything else on the games longevity though.
One thing I am very confident in though is that the console players will not bring the numbers up a whole lot. Certainly not more than the PC numbers. Anyone who reads any comments on site like IGN can see that console players like too cheap to pay a sub, and want everything for free. I prefer pay to play, but I just don't see the console players willing to do it.
Btw its only last gen console owners. This lowers the total amount a lot.
Think also that too many console owners owns a pc too. They are not going to buy it 2 times
I would predict a drop in numbers by at least 1/3 after the first month. Still a good amount of people paying to support it though. I will not say anything else on the games longevity though.
One thing I am very confident in though is that the console players will not bring the numbers up a whole lot. Certainly not more than the PC numbers. Anyone who reads any comments on site like IGN can see that console players like too cheap to pay a sub, and want everything for free. I prefer pay to play, but I just don't see the console players willing to do it.
You hit the target, I also think there will be a 60% retention rate. Anyone who says its only 30% based off of past games that never met this kind of quality or had another genre will find themselves scratching their heads on this one.
Not to mention name one game that has came out to date with the quality of graphics and storylines as this game? Lets really sit down and think about that question before replying so quickly and search the truth in our hearts. The answer is, there is nothing on the market to match this level of quality in both visuals and level of RPG in questing. This alone will keep the retention rate high.
Sure there are games like EQ Next and Wildstar coming, but still does not compete with this genre style and type of game. This game will do well into the future. The only upcoming challenge will be Archage, but given its developers, that game will only be a B+ game development in progress, and will never come close to the development power of ESO, so while people will moonlight on Archage, they will all come back to ESO until something better comes out.
I would predict a drop in numbers by at least 1/3 after the first month. Still a good amount of people paying to support it though. I will not say anything else on the games longevity though.
One thing I am very confident in though is that the console players will not bring the numbers up a whole lot. Certainly not more than the PC numbers. Anyone who reads any comments on site like IGN can see that console players like too cheap to pay a sub, and want everything for free. I prefer pay to play, but I just don't see the console players willing to do it.
Btw its only last gen console owners. This lowers the total amount a lot.
Think also that too many console owners owns a pc too. They are not going to buy it 2 times
It is being released on Xbox ONE and PS4, not 360 and PS3, so that is not last gen
I think that this will be the most sold MMO on console as Oblivion and Skyrim did well on 360 and PS3, and created a huge fanbase for the series for console owners. People will at least buy it to play solid for the free month, if not up for subscribing, but there has been a fair few mionthy sub games on console - PSO2, PSU, EQOA, FF XI, FF XIV
I bought the PC version, and I may get it on Xbox ONE as well, so i am buying it twice. The new consoles are lacking a load of games atm, and it will be something to play on it so it won't gather dust!
It is being released on Xbox ONE and PS4, not 360 and PS3, so that is not last gen
I think that this will be the most sold MMO on console as Oblivion and Skyrim did well on 360 and PS3, and created a huge fanbase for the series for console owners. People will at least buy it to play solid for the free month, if not up for subscribing, but there has been a fair few mionthy sub games on console - PSO2, PSU, EQOA, FF XI, FF XIV
I bought the PC version, and I may get it on Xbox ONE as well, so i am buying it twice. The new consoles are lacking a load of games atm, and it will be something to play on it so it won't gather dust!
ESO should be a great seller for selling systems. We don't have that figure yet, but a lot of ES fans are on console and could easily spend that kind of money on their beloved IP. You also pointed out all the console games of the past, and every single console MMORPG has been sub based. So there will be no problems with people paying a sub on consoles.
The people IGN says are F2P and wont pay sub, is looking at a broad look at the MMO world in general, and not at the genre nor the past console MMORPG's. Since we have not seen any new MMORPG hit the consoles since PS2 and XBOX, its fair to say IGN doesn't know jack, and is speculating heavily on MMORPGs on consoles. People will pay the sub for this game on consoles because of the AAA quality to the games look and RPG experience. There is no other MMORPG game to compete with the level of quality it has on the XBOX One and PS4.
I was going to say more but..its not even one month up yet. Now say this one year from now.. people might listen.
You just copied and pasted what someone else said about Rift, Lotro, SW.. blah blah blah. And yet ESO is by for easier then those easier then World of Warcraft.. HAHA theres no need for an Auction house. You dont even have to consider buying gold (some do).. the list goes on and on...pffft
If you like if then put your money where your mouth is. Sub for more then 6months. Yeah you..sorry some bash and call people that dislike, wont but the game "haters" yet the ones that just OMG love the the game.. a...na wont sub for more then 3-6. Wheres your faith?
I am not a fan of the game at all, but I can acknowledge what you are saying, it might not be my cup of tea, but you could enjoy it greatly. However, just a few things that is based on empirical fact, as it has happened time and time again. Current subscribers is people who bought the game, since it hasnt been out for 1 month yet, the real way to measure subs is to see what happens in the second - third months, and how many subscribers are playing it then, as there is a 30 day free sub attached to the game.
Also it is a little wierd calling yourself Nostradamus, haha, but its your call, what ever floats your boat.
In the face of Zeni's continued lack of sub/sales number bragging, I'm somewhat surprised by the apparent optimism of many -- how can you not see that as a very, very distressing sign?
OTOH, at this point I'm not entirely sure whether to chalk that up to sub-1 mil sales, possibly (probably?) very sub -- which would be more than a tad bit of an embarrassment, not to mention a distressing sign of things to come -- or put it down to Zeni clearly being so far out of their depth they couldn't find the surface without The Hubble and military-grade GPS.
Personally I'd like to see the game do well, new MMOs crashing and burning is getting old (not that most haven't deserved their fate, mind), but honestly I don't see how any fan of the game could not be worried -- very -- at this point.
In the face of Zeni's continued lack of sub/sales number bragging, I'm somewhat surprised by the apparent optimism of many -- how can you not see that as a very, very distressing sign?
OTOH, at this point I'm not entirely sure whether to chalk that up to sub-1 mil sales, possibly (probably?) very sub -- which would be more than a tad bit of an embarrassment, not to mention a distressing sign of things to come -- or put it down to Zeni clearly being so far out of their depth they couldn't find the surface without The Hubble and military-grade GPS.
Personally I'd like to see the game do well, new MMOs crashing and burning is getting old (not that most haven't deserved their fate, mind), but honestly I don't see how any fan of the game could not be worried -- very -- at this point.
I think they will release some numbers after the first sub day starts. Worse thing for a company to do is to release its numbers before the actual subs start. They cant really claim anything at the moment until they have solid sub numbers and not just purchases.
From my time in the beta it seems like a competent game with atmospheric visuals. However, I can't help but have a 'why bother?' feel about ESO because:
a) Its not a 'proper' ES game
b) it does nothing revolutionary at all in the MMO genre - in fact in many ways its a backwards step after the new ideas of GW2
So it seems to me to be neither one thing nor the other.
b) it does nothing revolutionary at all in the MMO genre - in fact in many ways its a backwards step after the new ideas of GW2
What new ideas, care to elaborate? I played GW2 and it felt lacking in every department (for me, personally). Now I'm playing ESO and feels superior to GW2 in every single department. To each his own I guess.
b) it does nothing revolutionary at all in the MMO genre - in fact in many ways its a backwards step after the new ideas of GW2
What new ideas, care to elaborate? I played GW2 and it felt lacking in every department (for me, personally). Now I'm playing ESO and feels superior to GW2 in every single department. To each his own I guess.
Oh come on... Are you actually beginning to trying to suggest that ESO has more new ideas/innovative mechanics than GW2? (which is - should you note - different from you feeling a game is superior to another).
But... alright since you asked, in GW2:
1 - Completion of quests affects nearby participating players/people can loot same objects (no "quest competition"),
2 - Dynamic/public events with scalable difficulty depending on the number of players,
3 - Down levelling of high level players going in low level zones
4 - Combo attacks/fields between nearby players
(5 - OK-ish implementation of underwater combat)
Now, I won't have the arrogance to even pretend that GW2 invented these things, but #1 and #2 are sorely needed in ESO (or do you actually dare to pretend that ESO mechanics superior here? Please... Give me a break).
#3 improves the replayability of the game and prevents high level from wrecking havoc (PvE) in lower level zones.
1. It will not have 2 mil sub after free month. My guess is around 400k depending if they can fix the more pressing issues, if not then it will tank dramatically and probably go completely belly up (less than 100k) within the first 6 months.
2. Console market is notoriously bad for P2P because they already pay (PSN+, XBL) for online play and are very reluctant to pay on top of that.
3. Housing does not save a game that is extremely boring and shallow.
4. They have to first get the game rock solid and polished, the current state is barely out of BETA. With the multitude of issues from simple broken quests to extreme security issues where people could log into your account on random, this game will need a lot of work (at least 6 months)
"Give players systems and tools instead of rails and rules"
I think this game will end up with Rift like numbers, I'd say a solid 1-2 million subs. The game breaking bugs are really kicking the crap out of the first month of the game though. and the fact that all the downtime hasn't really addressed most of them.
ESO is a prime example of a game that spent too much beta time playing pre-release marketing and not enough beta actually testing/reporting and fixing things.
Rift never had a solid 1-2 million subs. Why do you think it went f2p? Because it couldn't retain players.
In the face of Zeni's continued lack of sub/sales number bragging, I'm somewhat surprised by the apparent optimism of many -- how can you not see that as a very, very distressing sign?
OTOH, at this point I'm not entirely sure whether to chalk that up to sub-1 mil sales, possibly (probably?) very sub -- which would be more than a tad bit of an embarrassment, not to mention a distressing sign of things to come -- or put it down to Zeni clearly being so far out of their depth they couldn't find the surface without The Hubble and military-grade GPS.
Personally I'd like to see the game do well, new MMOs crashing and burning is getting old (not that most haven't deserved their fate, mind), but honestly I don't see how any fan of the game could not be worried -- very -- at this point.
I think they will release some numbers after the first sub day starts. Worse thing for a company to do is to release its numbers before the actual subs start. They cant really claim anything at the moment until they have solid sub numbers and not just purchases.
That doesn't really make any sense, as box sales/digital sales will be much higher than subscription numbers, so it would be more positive to announce sales numbers than how many were left after the first month was up. That they haven't says far more about how well the game is doing than otherwise, i would be very surprised if they did announce actual subscriber numbers after the first month, instead i expect they will post sales numbers, in the meantime i wouldn't mind betting that their hoping that the next few weeks will see a rise in sales, enough so that they will finally be able to announce something positive, of course, the longer this takes the worse the perception of the game will be, bit of a PR nightmare either way.
I agree with the OP, ZOS has really hit something here and unless they just give up on it they will make a ton of money on this. Hopefully they focus on bug fixes and server stability before new content. I think they are screwing themselves if they don't.
I'm confused. When I read the OP, I thought it was sarcastic and he was poking fun at people who would predict such things. Then I read some more of the posts and it seems most other people took it at face value.
If those are real predictions, I predict that the OP will be wrong.
This whole thread is quite a bit of biased, opinion based served as fact banter. I personally don't care what path the future of the game takes in the long run. I am enjoying the hell out of the game.
For the first time in a game in a long while your choices have consequences. This was the biggest turn off in SWTOR. They had one of the easiest IP lore that pushes you toward a light or dark path, and they chose to make that choice superficial.
All of the biggest complaints for the game, even the bugs, are fairly minor. The combat and skill choices are meaningful, the combat is tactical and medium paced. it isn't a frenzy and that is okay, but it isn't for everyone.
The crafting is the best I have ever encountered. I am the kind of player that only does crafting if it gains you an advantage in min maxing. I am now crafting in ESO because it is fun and a bit of a challenge. Do I decon a piece of armor or research it? Do I take a chance on tempering with 4 honing stones, or max it out at 5 to get the 100%? BTW I took a chance last night and it consumed my sword. Honing stones, while easy to grab from decon, are hard to keep around at first if your trying to craft green level gear. You have to spend a little time figuring out what choice to make. Skill and knowledge is important.
I will say my son is having a hard time with this game. He asked me how to get more quests since their isn't a bunch at the cities. I told him just to go off and explore. He gave me a funny look and went and played something else for a bit with his friends. Some of them don't like the game because it challenges them too much. This is perfect in my book, it isn't the target audience. Hopefully the style grows on him, he does like the game otherwise. Those who are sub 20 are going to have issues from my experience with his friends.
I also have a friend my age who is obsessed with having exactly the right skills in place, or he will respec. This is also something I feel people need to let go of. You don't need to worry outside of your morphs. There are plenty of skill points in the game to get pretty much everything, even situational, in the game you will need. He was trying to argue that you had to have all the passives and only skills on your bar you used until you had hit max level. I just don't see this. Nor do you need to have the best gear for your level. I am crafting myself new armor every 2 levels of white, just because I am leveling those professions anyway. You can grab glyphs cheap off the enchanters. I use my drops for decon or research. I have a couple inspiration items I slot while deconstructing too.
The questing feels different, too. There is nothing revolutionary about ESO, and that's fine with me. It is a solid, even if slightly buggy, game. The weather states are excellent as well, as is the night / day cycles.
You CANNOT afford to have the entire megaserver go down.
This is a very key factor , sadly it's a bad one and a good one. If the tech works, best idea ever, if not worse idea ever for the reasons you describe.
It's NOT one server..It's a lot of servers chained to one..So If one go down you can contiunue to play and..If let's say there is a Power failure in the city where those servers are ..well It goes down..and none can play
But that will happen to any MMO then aswell As most likely most of the servers are in the same area..every server in that region will go down , and If your particular server goes down you can't play your favorite characther until that server is up again..So..that means Mega server Tech is better...
Originally posted by ElElyon I agree with the OP, ZOS has really hit something here and unless they just give up on it they will make a ton of money on this. Hopefully they focus on bug fixes and server stability before new content. I think they are screwing themselves if they don't.
The only thing it has hit is "Rock Bottom"
"Give players systems and tools instead of rails and rules"
Comments
Btw its only last gen console owners. This lowers the total amount a lot.
Think also that too many console owners owns a pc too. They are not going to buy it 2 times
You hit the target, I also think there will be a 60% retention rate. Anyone who says its only 30% based off of past games that never met this kind of quality or had another genre will find themselves scratching their heads on this one.
Not to mention name one game that has came out to date with the quality of graphics and storylines as this game? Lets really sit down and think about that question before replying so quickly and search the truth in our hearts. The answer is, there is nothing on the market to match this level of quality in both visuals and level of RPG in questing. This alone will keep the retention rate high.
Sure there are games like EQ Next and Wildstar coming, but still does not compete with this genre style and type of game. This game will do well into the future. The only upcoming challenge will be Archage, but given its developers, that game will only be a B+ game development in progress, and will never come close to the development power of ESO, so while people will moonlight on Archage, they will all come back to ESO until something better comes out.
It is being released on Xbox ONE and PS4, not 360 and PS3, so that is not last gen
I think that this will be the most sold MMO on console as Oblivion and Skyrim did well on 360 and PS3, and created a huge fanbase for the series for console owners. People will at least buy it to play solid for the free month, if not up for subscribing, but there has been a fair few mionthy sub games on console - PSO2, PSU, EQOA, FF XI, FF XIV
I bought the PC version, and I may get it on Xbox ONE as well, so i am buying it twice. The new consoles are lacking a load of games atm, and it will be something to play on it so it won't gather dust!
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
ESO should be a great seller for selling systems. We don't have that figure yet, but a lot of ES fans are on console and could easily spend that kind of money on their beloved IP. You also pointed out all the console games of the past, and every single console MMORPG has been sub based. So there will be no problems with people paying a sub on consoles.
The people IGN says are F2P and wont pay sub, is looking at a broad look at the MMO world in general, and not at the genre nor the past console MMORPG's. Since we have not seen any new MMORPG hit the consoles since PS2 and XBOX, its fair to say IGN doesn't know jack, and is speculating heavily on MMORPGs on consoles. People will pay the sub for this game on consoles because of the AAA quality to the games look and RPG experience. There is no other MMORPG game to compete with the level of quality it has on the XBOX One and PS4.
I was going to say more but..its not even one month up yet. Now say this one year from now.. people might listen.
You just copied and pasted what someone else said about Rift, Lotro, SW.. blah blah blah. And yet ESO is by for easier then those easier then World of Warcraft.. HAHA theres no need for an Auction house. You dont even have to consider buying gold (some do).. the list goes on and on...pffft
If you like if then put your money where your mouth is. Sub for more then 6months. Yeah you..sorry some bash and call people that dislike, wont but the game "haters" yet the ones that just OMG love the the game.. a...na wont sub for more then 3-6. Wheres your faith?
I am not a fan of the game at all, but I can acknowledge what you are saying, it might not be my cup of tea, but you could enjoy it greatly. However, just a few things that is based on empirical fact, as it has happened time and time again. Current subscribers is people who bought the game, since it hasnt been out for 1 month yet, the real way to measure subs is to see what happens in the second - third months, and how many subscribers are playing it then, as there is a 30 day free sub attached to the game.
Also it is a little wierd calling yourself Nostradamus, haha, but its your call, what ever floats your boat.
In the face of Zeni's continued lack of sub/sales number bragging, I'm somewhat surprised by the apparent optimism of many -- how can you not see that as a very, very distressing sign?
OTOH, at this point I'm not entirely sure whether to chalk that up to sub-1 mil sales, possibly (probably?) very sub -- which would be more than a tad bit of an embarrassment, not to mention a distressing sign of things to come -- or put it down to Zeni clearly being so far out of their depth they couldn't find the surface without The Hubble and military-grade GPS.
Personally I'd like to see the game do well, new MMOs crashing and burning is getting old (not that most haven't deserved their fate, mind), but honestly I don't see how any fan of the game could not be worried -- very -- at this point.
I think they will release some numbers after the first sub day starts. Worse thing for a company to do is to release its numbers before the actual subs start. They cant really claim anything at the moment until they have solid sub numbers and not just purchases.
From my time in the beta it seems like a competent game with atmospheric visuals. However, I can't help but have a 'why bother?' feel about ESO because:
a) Its not a 'proper' ES game
b) it does nothing revolutionary at all in the MMO genre - in fact in many ways its a backwards step after the new ideas of GW2
So it seems to me to be neither one thing nor the other.
Oh come on... Are you actually beginning to trying to suggest that ESO has more new ideas/innovative mechanics than GW2? (which is - should you note - different from you feeling a game is superior to another).
But... alright since you asked, in GW2:
1 - Completion of quests affects nearby participating players/people can loot same objects (no "quest competition"),
2 - Dynamic/public events with scalable difficulty depending on the number of players,
3 - Down levelling of high level players going in low level zones
4 - Combo attacks/fields between nearby players
(5 - OK-ish implementation of underwater combat)
Now, I won't have the arrogance to even pretend that GW2 invented these things, but #1 and #2 are sorely needed in ESO (or do you actually dare to pretend that ESO mechanics superior here? Please... Give me a break).
#3 improves the replayability of the game and prevents high level from wrecking havoc (PvE) in lower level zones.
#4 blows ESO's combat depth any day
#5 is nice to have stuff
Yes ESO is a step backward, whether you are happy to hear this or not.
Many people have even been saying they like the game because it is more "old school". Which is fine, this is also what I like about the game.
Hilarious! Very amusing thread, thank you OP.
On a more serious note:
1. It will not have 2 mil sub after free month. My guess is around 400k depending if they can fix the more pressing issues, if not then it will tank dramatically and probably go completely belly up (less than 100k) within the first 6 months.
2. Console market is notoriously bad for P2P because they already pay (PSN+, XBL) for online play and are very reluctant to pay on top of that.
3. Housing does not save a game that is extremely boring and shallow.
4. They have to first get the game rock solid and polished, the current state is barely out of BETA. With the multitude of issues from simple broken quests to extreme security issues where people could log into your account on random, this game will need a lot of work (at least 6 months)
How is this troll thread still going and not locked?
I swear, if i make a thread like
"BOLD PREDICTIONS!!
1. ESO will be F2P in a year
2. Zenimax will never get their act together
3. Why is there not even housing?"
it'll be locked and getting me a warning within 10 minutes.
Rift never had a solid 1-2 million subs. Why do you think it went f2p? Because it couldn't retain players.
That doesn't really make any sense, as box sales/digital sales will be much higher than subscription numbers, so it would be more positive to announce sales numbers than how many were left after the first month was up. That they haven't says far more about how well the game is doing than otherwise, i would be very surprised if they did announce actual subscriber numbers after the first month, instead i expect they will post sales numbers, in the meantime i wouldn't mind betting that their hoping that the next few weeks will see a rise in sales, enough so that they will finally be able to announce something positive, of course, the longer this takes the worse the perception of the game will be, bit of a PR nightmare either way.
I'm confused. When I read the OP, I thought it was sarcastic and he was poking fun at people who would predict such things. Then I read some more of the posts and it seems most other people took it at face value.
If those are real predictions, I predict that the OP will be wrong.
This whole thread is quite a bit of biased, opinion based served as fact banter. I personally don't care what path the future of the game takes in the long run. I am enjoying the hell out of the game.
For the first time in a game in a long while your choices have consequences. This was the biggest turn off in SWTOR. They had one of the easiest IP lore that pushes you toward a light or dark path, and they chose to make that choice superficial.
All of the biggest complaints for the game, even the bugs, are fairly minor. The combat and skill choices are meaningful, the combat is tactical and medium paced. it isn't a frenzy and that is okay, but it isn't for everyone.
The crafting is the best I have ever encountered. I am the kind of player that only does crafting if it gains you an advantage in min maxing. I am now crafting in ESO because it is fun and a bit of a challenge. Do I decon a piece of armor or research it? Do I take a chance on tempering with 4 honing stones, or max it out at 5 to get the 100%? BTW I took a chance last night and it consumed my sword. Honing stones, while easy to grab from decon, are hard to keep around at first if your trying to craft green level gear. You have to spend a little time figuring out what choice to make. Skill and knowledge is important.
I will say my son is having a hard time with this game. He asked me how to get more quests since their isn't a bunch at the cities. I told him just to go off and explore. He gave me a funny look and went and played something else for a bit with his friends. Some of them don't like the game because it challenges them too much. This is perfect in my book, it isn't the target audience. Hopefully the style grows on him, he does like the game otherwise. Those who are sub 20 are going to have issues from my experience with his friends.
I also have a friend my age who is obsessed with having exactly the right skills in place, or he will respec. This is also something I feel people need to let go of. You don't need to worry outside of your morphs. There are plenty of skill points in the game to get pretty much everything, even situational, in the game you will need. He was trying to argue that you had to have all the passives and only skills on your bar you used until you had hit max level. I just don't see this. Nor do you need to have the best gear for your level. I am crafting myself new armor every 2 levels of white, just because I am leveling those professions anyway. You can grab glyphs cheap off the enchanters. I use my drops for decon or research. I have a couple inspiration items I slot while deconstructing too.
The questing feels different, too. There is nothing revolutionary about ESO, and that's fine with me. It is a solid, even if slightly buggy, game. The weather states are excellent as well, as is the night / day cycles.
It's NOT one server..It's a lot of servers chained to one..So If one go down you can contiunue to play and..If let's say there is a Power failure in the city where those servers are ..well It goes down..and none can play
But that will happen to any MMO then aswell As most likely most of the servers are in the same area..every server in that region will go down , and If your particular server goes down you can't play your favorite characther until that server is up again..So..that means Mega server Tech is better...
The only thing it has hit is "Rock Bottom"