That Wow will be around as long as it keeps making money is hardly a surprise to any of us. 10+ more years is a prediction however, Blizzard would hardly keep it around if they actually lost money on it and we have no clue how the future will look.
Wow might still be around in even 20 years, but that really depends on new technology and if Wow can be adapted to it or not.
For example might all new MMOs be VR 5 or 10 years from now, and a VR game might use very different mechanics from the games currently around. If that became the norm then it could kill all older MMOs, but then again it might not happen at all, it might be too expensive for regular gamers or the technology might go somewhere else.
Or MMOs might be totally dead in a couple of years because someone else figure out a new more fun way to roleplay and combat together with your friends, something going in a completely different way from what we today call MMOs.
Predictions of the future are at best very unreliable and the only thing for sure is that Wow will stay around for the next few years and probably but not certainly for far longer.
A wise man once said : "The future is like the behind of a baboon, colorful and full of crap".
Considering that Meridian59 and UO are still around I would say it's safe to say WoW will run for minimally another 10 years. If games were to become VR in 5 years from now, we would be seeing a lot more tech hype about it now. At best if VR were to become a thing, it would be 10 years at best. While technology generally changes rapidly, mass consumer technology is more slow to change. Hell, 10 years ago people still used VHS for their movie watching, regardless of DVDs having been around for years. Right now DVDs still sell well even though Blu Ray technology is fairly inexpensive, and we probably won't see DVDs go away completely for most likely another 5 years or so (at which point the next big thing will be here as well).
The biggest staying power for older mmos is loyal gamers who are comfortable with the mechanics of the game, not to mention that older mmos run well on low budget PCs. Those people who can comfortably play with inexpensive tech aren't going to jump on a massive tech upgrade anytime soon.
I would say a 10 year guarantee for WoW is just that, a guarantee. It might not be the king of the pile in 10 years, but I bet it'll still have a healthy population. Regardless of tech changes, these older mmos will continue to run as long as their supporters stay alive :P
I hope WoW keeps upgrading the graphics on every front.
Came back with the recent patch. At first I had difficulty settling in because of the dated graphics, even with the recent updates, but the more I play the more I feel I'm falling into a state of satisfaction.
The world feels very much like a world. Running around Teldrassil I really, really got the feeling I'm in a forest. Unlike with recent MMOs with their paltry "forests". Too sad to even write about and that's just one example.
Flying around Azeroth is simply amazing. They really knocked it out of the park. World of Warcraft. Emphasis on World. Flew from Stormwind, past Ghilneas (sp?) and went to UC.
I can't wait until I visit the newer parts. Fingers crossed.
That can't be true. The "specialists" here said the game was doomed like 5+ years ago already.
Lol this made my morning. A lot of people have been saying WoW is dying, but technically every MMO is "dying" since each and every one of them has a period where their population decreases. The only way WoW will "die" is if Blizz decides to shut it down for good, and they've already said they don't plan on doing that anytime soon.
Plus, I'm sure every other company would love their MMOs to be "dying" like WoW is.
Only an idiot would say wow is dying or going to die. I feel sorry for those who are affected by this, in effect they will potentially spen 20 years playing the same game, with only the last years content upgraded- truely horrific!
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
A few years ago Blizzard told us that Titan would be the next "big thing". Enough said?
No one is suggesting that WoW will "die" or that it won't be around in 10 yers. Bottomline though: this is simply a prediction. It is what Blizzard plan.
Companies predict the future all the time. They have business plans. "Lots of detail" for the months ahead - pretty easy to predict next month; "less and less detail" as you go further and further out. And every 3 months or 6 months or whatever the plans get updated. Assumptions get revisited; financial predictions and staffing requirements get reassessed. Because stuff changes.
And sometimes the business plans are optimistic. Which is why we get so many restructuring announcements
The more interesting question is what might change in the next 10 years that might impact WoW.
Originally posted by hikaru77 Then we wonder why TITAN proyect was canceled, also any hope of a new MMO from Blizz.
Probably had more to do with Hearthstone being made by 15(yes, thats right, fifteen) for a little of nothing and is currently raking in money hand over fist.
Kinda had Blizzard questioning why they should spend 100s of millions working their asses off for 10 years to make Titan for the possibility of a return.
Maybe Blizzard will just come keep WoW running and otherwise leave the MMORPG genre because of the crazy shifting whims of the MMO players.
Originally posted by hikaru77 Then we wonder why TITAN proyect was canceled, also any hope of a new MMO from Blizz.
Probably had more to do with Hearthstone being made by 15(yes, thats right, fifteen) for a little of nothing and is currently raking in money hand over fist.
Kinda had Blizzard questioning why they should spend 100s of millions working their asses off for 10 years to make Titan for the possibility of a return.
Maybe Blizzard will just come keep WoW running and otherwise leave the MMORPG genre because of the crazy shifting whims of the MMO players.
Yeah, but you never walk away from money. Does it makes sense to trade $1 for $20? Yup!! Does it make sense to trade $1 for $2? Yup!!!! I'll do both any day of the week. I also wouldn't count them out as far as some sort of new MMORPG but, you're right, they already have WoW in the stables, and they have considerable cash committed to Destiny, so where do you go with an MMORPG that doesn't cannibalize one or the other? There's always the sandbox route, which I think Titan was maybe shooting for, but the market for that type of game probably isn't as big as you might think.
Originally posted by hikaru77 Then we wonder why TITAN proyect was canceled, also any hope of a new MMO from Blizz.
Probably had more to do with Hearthstone being made by 15(yes, thats right, fifteen) for a little of nothing and is currently raking in money hand over fist.
Kinda had Blizzard questioning why they should spend 100s of millions working their asses off for 10 years to make Titan for the possibility of a return.
Maybe Blizzard will just come keep WoW running and otherwise leave the MMORPG genre because of the crazy shifting whims of the MMO players.
Yeah, but you never walk away from money. Does it makes sense to trade $1 for $20? Yup!! Does it make sense to trade $1 for $2? Yup!!!! I'll do both any day of the week. I also wouldn't count them out as far as some sort of new MMORPG but, you're right, they already have WoW in the stables, and they have considerable cash committed to Destiny, so where do you go with an MMORPG that doesn't cannibalize one or the other? There's always the sandbox route, which I think Titan was maybe shooting for, but the market for that type of game probably isn't as big as you might think.
I agree with that statement. Sandbox is merely another way of saying, I want gaming the way it was back in the early days, a throwback... problem is, you've already been there and done that... and it won't take but an instant to realize you've done this all before. It's not the solution you are looking for. If it were, you'd still be playing the old games 24/7 and the servers would be packed... they're not because you are just as likely to try out a new game as stay with an old one. All you need is some new release, good or bad, and you are the first in line to try it. That tells me that you are looking for something different, not the same old same old... and sandbox is old school. You've been there, and you've done that.
So Blizzard can forsee 10 years into the future? Lol
OK let me fix it for you
10 more years *planned* - and those plans could change at any point, that's reality
Whenever someone tells you "guaranteed" - it means they are trying to sell you something.
Yes they can, it's called market trends. Let's analyze the present state of WoW.
WoW has been losing an everage of 21% of it's player base over the last 2 x-packs (or roughly 4 years). That's based on 12 million peak when cata was released, the 9 million peak when MoP was released, and lastly the 7.5 million present day subs (according to their last announcement). Based on that trend there will be 5.9 million subs when they release their next x-pack, 4.6 million at the release of the following x-pack, etc.
Yes this is not 100% accurate but even if WoW were to lose 50% of it's player base each x-pack they would still have 3.7 million subs at the release of the x-pack after WoD, and 1.9 million subs at the following x-pack release. Based on trends, statistics, and time the real number probably is in between the two somewhere.
Anyway you slice it 6 years down the rode WoW will more than likely still have at the very minimum a million subs which would still make it in the top 5 subs based on the present day market. Not too shabby for a game that will be over 16 years old.
Sort of like predicting 10 more years of "Darkness."
WOW is the MMORPG that mostly likely my grandchildren (none of who are born yet) will likely show me their level 155 Death Knights or something one day.
WOW will never die.... only the players will slowly fade away.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
That right there invalidates your opinion in my view.
Not everyone's cup of tea, but to dismiss a valid business model out of hand doesn't impress me.
Free to play is not a valid business model as most free to play games gate content, gear, or some form of currency behind cash shop items or an optional subscription. This very fact makes free to play a gimmick to get people to try for free then if they like they either sub or dump money into their cash shop.
Comments
Considering that Meridian59 and UO are still around I would say it's safe to say WoW will run for minimally another 10 years. If games were to become VR in 5 years from now, we would be seeing a lot more tech hype about it now. At best if VR were to become a thing, it would be 10 years at best. While technology generally changes rapidly, mass consumer technology is more slow to change. Hell, 10 years ago people still used VHS for their movie watching, regardless of DVDs having been around for years. Right now DVDs still sell well even though Blu Ray technology is fairly inexpensive, and we probably won't see DVDs go away completely for most likely another 5 years or so (at which point the next big thing will be here as well).
The biggest staying power for older mmos is loyal gamers who are comfortable with the mechanics of the game, not to mention that older mmos run well on low budget PCs. Those people who can comfortably play with inexpensive tech aren't going to jump on a massive tech upgrade anytime soon.
I would say a 10 year guarantee for WoW is just that, a guarantee. It might not be the king of the pile in 10 years, but I bet it'll still have a healthy population. Regardless of tech changes, these older mmos will continue to run as long as their supporters stay alive :P
EQ2 fan sites
I hope WoW keeps upgrading the graphics on every front.
Came back with the recent patch. At first I had difficulty settling in because of the dated graphics, even with the recent updates, but the more I play the more I feel I'm falling into a state of satisfaction.
The world feels very much like a world. Running around Teldrassil I really, really got the feeling I'm in a forest. Unlike with recent MMOs with their paltry "forests". Too sad to even write about and that's just one example.
Flying around Azeroth is simply amazing. They really knocked it out of the park. World of Warcraft. Emphasis on World. Flew from Stormwind, past Ghilneas (sp?) and went to UC.
I can't wait until I visit the newer parts. Fingers crossed.
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
Lol this made my morning. A lot of people have been saying WoW is dying, but technically every MMO is "dying" since each and every one of them has a period where their population decreases. The only way WoW will "die" is if Blizz decides to shut it down for good, and they've already said they don't plan on doing that anytime soon.
Plus, I'm sure every other company would love their MMOs to be "dying" like WoW is.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
A few years ago Blizzard told us that Titan would be the next "big thing". Enough said?
No one is suggesting that WoW will "die" or that it won't be around in 10 yers. Bottomline though: this is simply a prediction. It is what Blizzard plan.
Companies predict the future all the time. They have business plans. "Lots of detail" for the months ahead - pretty easy to predict next month; "less and less detail" as you go further and further out. And every 3 months or 6 months or whatever the plans get updated. Assumptions get revisited; financial predictions and staffing requirements get reassessed. Because stuff changes.
And sometimes the business plans are optimistic. Which is why we get so many restructuring announcements
The more interesting question is what might change in the next 10 years that might impact WoW.
Kinda had Blizzard questioning why they should spend 100s of millions working their asses off for 10 years to make Titan for the possibility of a return.
Maybe Blizzard will just come keep WoW running and otherwise leave the MMORPG genre because of the crazy shifting whims of the MMO players.
Yeah, but you never walk away from money. Does it makes sense to trade $1 for $20? Yup!! Does it make sense to trade $1 for $2? Yup!!!! I'll do both any day of the week. I also wouldn't count them out as far as some sort of new MMORPG but, you're right, they already have WoW in the stables, and they have considerable cash committed to Destiny, so where do you go with an MMORPG that doesn't cannibalize one or the other? There's always the sandbox route, which I think Titan was maybe shooting for, but the market for that type of game probably isn't as big as you might think.
Crazkanuk
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Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
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i dont even know why other mmorpg company try to go into the market on west with WoW here. its just pure doom to fail.
wow is the master race and as long as its up and running it will be. bring me 10 more years of other mmorpgs down the toilet !
I agree with that statement. Sandbox is merely another way of saying, I want gaming the way it was back in the early days, a throwback... problem is, you've already been there and done that... and it won't take but an instant to realize you've done this all before. It's not the solution you are looking for. If it were, you'd still be playing the old games 24/7 and the servers would be packed... they're not because you are just as likely to try out a new game as stay with an old one. All you need is some new release, good or bad, and you are the first in line to try it. That tells me that you are looking for something different, not the same old same old... and sandbox is old school. You've been there, and you've done that.
Yes they can, it's called market trends. Let's analyze the present state of WoW.
WoW has been losing an everage of 21% of it's player base over the last 2 x-packs (or roughly 4 years). That's based on 12 million peak when cata was released, the 9 million peak when MoP was released, and lastly the 7.5 million present day subs (according to their last announcement). Based on that trend there will be 5.9 million subs when they release their next x-pack, 4.6 million at the release of the following x-pack, etc.
Yes this is not 100% accurate but even if WoW were to lose 50% of it's player base each x-pack they would still have 3.7 million subs at the release of the x-pack after WoD, and 1.9 million subs at the following x-pack release. Based on trends, statistics, and time the real number probably is in between the two somewhere.
Anyway you slice it 6 years down the rode WoW will more than likely still have at the very minimum a million subs which would still make it in the top 5 subs based on the present day market. Not too shabby for a game that will be over 16 years old.
Sort of like predicting 10 more years of "Darkness."
WOW is the MMORPG that mostly likely my grandchildren (none of who are born yet) will likely show me their level 155 Death Knights or something one day.
WOW will never die.... only the players will slowly fade away.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
ghosts play wow too!
EQ2 fan sites
That right there invalidates your opinion in my view.
Not everyone's cup of tea, but to dismiss a valid business model out of hand doesn't impress me.
Free to play is not a valid business model as most free to play games gate content, gear, or some form of currency behind cash shop items or an optional subscription. This very fact makes free to play a gimmick to get people to try for free then if they like they either sub or dump money into their cash shop.