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How does WoW bounce back from 3mil decline in subs?

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  • akiira69akiira69 Member UncommonPosts: 615
    Originally posted by giftedHorn
    Originally posted by akiira69

    Like you claim that no one has answered your question the same can be said for you in the fact that you didnt answer mine. But it doesnt matter the reason why you wont answer anyone else question because it appears that you cant. For the record loosing 3 mill subs from a game that had 10 mill is not a 25% loss its a 33.333% loss. Also compared to the loss thhat Star Wars Galaxies had with the release of the NGE 3 million people leaving is a drop in the bucket. Pre-NGE for SWG the accounts were at 400K. One week after the release of the NGE subs were at 50K. Blizzard would have to lose 6.5 Million subscriptions by next sunday to ever emulate what the NGE did for Star Wars Galaxies. And personally I doubt that Blizzard is foolish enough to do something that foolish.

     

    Oops, math fail. 3/10 = 30%, not 33.333%. For the record, you know. Anyway it was 2.9 million lost, which is closer to a quarter than a third.

     

    A lot of Blizzard fanboyism in this thread: "it's only a flesh wound". I suspect the same fanboyism is keeping the stock price up; ATVI is holding steady despite the bad news, and its valuation does not make a lot of sense.

     

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3210996-activision-blizzard-q1-was-not-that-strong

    It isnt fanboyism it is reality which is something you fail to grasp. Most MMO Developers would love to have even 1 million active subscribers. So 3 Million People have left the game there is still 7 Million left playing. The average MMO has somewhere between 300K - 400K players. Sorry Chicken Little the sky isnt falling thats just a tiny pebble that hit your head. Come back and ask how Blizzard will bounce back after losing 90% of its player base in 1 week. 

    "Possibly we humans can exist without actually having to fight. But many of us have chosen to fight. For what reason? To protect something? Protect what? Ourselves? The future? If we kill people to protect ourselves and this future, then what sort of future is it, and what will we have become? There is no future for those who have died. And what of those who did the killing? Is happiness to be found in a future that is grasped with blood stained hands? Is that the truth?"

  • CrazKanukCrazKanuk Member EpicPosts: 6,130
    Originally posted by Darksworm
    Originally posted by CrazKanuk
    Originally posted by giftedHorn
    Originally posted by akiira69

    Like you claim that no one has answered your question the same can be said for you in the fact that you didnt answer mine. But it doesnt matter the reason why you wont answer anyone else question because it appears that you cant. For the record loosing 3 mill subs from a game that had 10 mill is not a 25% loss its a 33.333% loss. Also compared to the loss thhat Star Wars Galaxies had with the release of the NGE 3 million people leaving is a drop in the bucket. Pre-NGE for SWG the accounts were at 400K. One week after the release of the NGE subs were at 50K. Blizzard would have to lose 6.5 Million subscriptions by next sunday to ever emulate what the NGE did for Star Wars Galaxies. And personally I doubt that Blizzard is foolish enough to do something that foolish.

     

    Oops, math fail. 3/10 = 30%, not 33.333%. For the record, you know. Anyway it was 2.9 million lost, which is closer to a quarter than a third.

     

    A lot of Blizzard fanboyism in this thread: "it's only a flesh wound". I suspect the same fanboyism is keeping the stock price up; ATVI is holding steady despite the bad news, and its valuation does not make a lot of sense.

     

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3210996-activision-blizzard-q1-was-not-that-strong

    I'm not sure I get the article that you're quoting. Are you saying that Blizz is going down, or that it's a huge issue? As bad as they fanboyism is, the doom and gloomers are just as bad. For instance, you quoted an article but fail to acknowledge what the article is even talking about. The analyst actually even goes as far as to estimate WoW's revenues for the past 3 years:

    2013: 790 Million

    2014: 1.03 Billion

    2015: 950 Million

     

    But 2013 was the MoP Valley, 2014, was the WoD Peak, 2015 will be the WoD Valley, and we can expect another expansion in 2016 which will create another peak. Where will that peak be? Tough to say. Prior to MoP though, first-day sales of expacks increased release-over-release BC - 2.4 million, Wrath - 2.7 Million, Cata - 3.3 Million, MoP 2.7 Million (first week), WoD 3.3 Million (first day). So we COULD make a stretch and say that the expectation would be an expansion to sell 3.6 million+ on the first day (as long as there are no Pandas in it). This simply means that the peak will be higher than the last. I really don't think that WoW's performance is out of the ordinary, though. Doom and gloomers might say "ZOMG!!! WoW's dying because it lost 3 million subs!", but based on historical financials, I don't really see it losing revenues, I see a typical peak and valley situation. 

     

    THAT!! Is the thing that WoW really needs to solve. How the hell can they get people to actually keep playing their game?

    You're looking at the wrong numbers.

     

    It doesn't matter how many people buy the expansion.  Much of that goes towards funding the development of the expansion.  The profits come largely from the subscriptions.

     

    SO what would be more interesting to see is how many of those people who bought those boxes actually stayed long term, and how did the numbers drop off after the launch of the expansion.

     

    Games like TESO, Guild Wars 2, etc. go Buy to Play so that the Box Sales pay for Development and then hopefully they make enough money from the Cash Shop to Profit off the game.

     

    You seriously think a bunch of people walking into Game Stop or going to Battle.net and buying the expansion is going to pay for their servers, ongoing maintenance, and ongoing development costs if they quit playing in 3-5 months because they got bored and didn't want to waste $15/mo on a subscription for a game they aren't enjoying playing?

     

    I don't think so.

     

    Box sales are worthless.  Every game will get a huge uptick in downloads and/or box sales on launch day.  In the grand scheme of things, a $39.99 purchase up front is not that big of an investment.  The issue arises when people start to question whether the game is good enough to deserve a perpetual $14.99/month investment from them, when they could otherwise funnel that to services that can potentially give them more entertainment.

     

    Lastly, comparing revenue across years without a deeper examination of the market is foolhardy.

     

    Put it in perspective.

     

    If 3.3M people quit paying a WoW subscription, and only 2.8M people come back over the course of the year.  Just those 0.5M people who left...  That is a loss of ~90M over the year just form those 500k subscribers lost.

     

    And that's ignoring the fact that they didn't get all of those 2.8M subscribers to replace them instantly, so the number is likely 3-4x that much when you factor in game/expansion sales.

     

    If 2.3M (lower than the stated numbers) people just up and quit and they aren't replaced, that's a gross ~414M per year lost in subscription fees.

     

    Keep in mind you don't necessarily have to lose subscribers to gain subscribers, so in either case...  The potential revenue lost is a massive amount.  I think a lot of MMORPG developers would love to have that many users giving them 14.99/mo. to play their game...

     

    WoW's revenue (and yes, I'm factoring in a huge chunk of that goes towards maintaining the game, developing new content, paying staff, etc.), when compared to the amount of subscribers they tend to boast having, leads me to believe that a lot of their users tend to "turn off" their accounts through the year to avoid paying a subscription when they aren't playing the game.  And I think that's a bigger issue than "how are they going to regain that 3M subscribers."  That kind of volatility is what tends to kill a lot of MMORPGs, but of course Blizzard can "deal with it" a lot better due to the sheer size of their player base.

     

    It seems even the WoW player base is growing increasingly fickle these days.

    I definitely get what you're saying, and I agree. I don't think that it's a GREAT measure, but if your D1 sales increase expack-over-expack then I think it's fair to assume that your overall "Potential" subscriber-base is increasing. I don't think that there is a good way to measure current subscribers and I don't think that you'll ever hear Blizz announcing sub numbers. It only eludes to the volatility of the market. 

     

    That being said, people aren't picking up an expack D1 and not subscribing, either. WoW is a veritable revolving door at this point, based on what I've seen in my circles. There's nothing wrong with that, either. I'm actually feeling guilty for holding onto my sub right now, just based on the library I've got to play through right now. My kids still play, though, so I guess that justifies it. Anyway, people AREN'T picking up an expack and not subscribing. So their overall potential subscriber base is increasing, but what's that drop-off curve look like? What's the re-sub timings like for those who leave during the expack too? 

     

    Unfortunately the numbers that are really interesting will never be released, the total number of annual subscribers, monthly concurrent subscribers, total expack sales, etc. That's just never getting out to the public. You're right, though, and as I mentioned before, the biggest problem with WoW, and every other MMO, is creating meaningful, ongoing content that's going to make people want to subscribe for a year or two. Oh, and I don't think that moving up to annual expacks is the way to do that too. But, hey, I'd probably buy it anyway.

    Crazkanuk

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  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    Originally posted by akiira69
    Originally posted by OhhPaigey

    And I will repeat myself again, before people post "this always happens!" Yeah, it does, but never in this short amount of time, and never going so far up the playerbase ladder to the absolute best players in the entire game.

    and you still refuse to see that most MMO's would sacrifice a vital limb to have even 1 mill subscriptions. WoW Still has 7 million subscriptions. Like I asked in a previous post "If 7 million active subscriptions is a dying game then how many subscriptions is a thriving game?"

    Is WoW a "thriving" game?

    As you say 7M subs - from which Blizzard get $X (remember in players in e.g. China pay TenCent who then pay Blizzard a fee) - is a huge number. Compared to other sub based games it is indeed thriving.

    However WoW may - at the same time - be "dying". May; I would suggest we wait until the next quarters results. And that is because the loss of 2.9M subs (dropping from 10M to 7.1M) is not the same as being hit by a pebble. If WoW was a house it would be akin to a wall falling down.

    What is a dying game? At the end of the day WoW is a product and all products have what is called a "product life cycle". Quick google will give you the picture but the stages are launch, growth, maturity, decline.

    If the next quarters results show that subs are still around 7M then rumours of WoWs decline are probably premature. Subs hit 6.8M last year so it could be argued that subs are stable and WoW is still in the "mature" phase. If subs drop again though by some large-ish amount then that could indicate that WoW has entered the decline phase. How big is large-ish? 500k - maybe; 1M or more absolutely.

    As I say though still a little early to say. The drop could "just" be people who came back for the xpac leaving and subs may carry on around 7M

    Does it matter? Maybe. Management know all about product life cycles and they influence investment decisions. If Blizzard see no easy way to bring players back then they may (maybe already have) decide to spend less and focus on e.g. Hearthstone; get every last dollar they can out of WoW whilst they can for minimum investment. If, however, they see ways to get subs back easily they may opt to spend more. Recent moves suggest that they been cutting back but - and here is the irony - if you decide a product has entered the decline phase then spending less can drive the decline; a self fulfilling prophecy!

    So WoW, for sure, is thriving however it may - may - also be "dying". Either way 2.9M is not a pebble.  

    Edit: Another way to think of it - a what if. Say Blizzard in their next results announce a further 3M drop in subs. Everything you say will still be true. WoW would still have 4M subs. It would still be thriving compared to other sub based mmos. Other publishers would still - proverbially - "sacrifice a vital limb". And we could still talk about WoW bouncing back when they release the next xpac. But it would be a 6M drop in 6 months. And I don't think there would be any doubt that WoW was in decline. Remember its a what if to show how the game can both be "thriving comparatively" and in decline. 

  • MortisRexMortisRex Member UncommonPosts: 350
    Originally posted by akiira69
    Originally posted by OhhPaigey

    Losing 25% of players, income, anything is a dying game. Whether other games have the same number of subs is completely irrelevant.

    That's like saying a few years ago when RIM was losing massive amounts of money, "Well, how much do you have in your bank account?". Now they're basically not even a thing.

    When you're on pace to lose massive amounts of numbers and income, whether you have 50 billion dollars or 10 million, if you keep on that pace, both people end up with $0 in the end.

    Like you claim that no one has answered your question the same can be said for you in the fact that you didnt answer mine. But it doesnt matter the reason why you wont answer anyone else question because it appears that you cant. For the record loosing 3 mill subs from a game that had 10 mill is not a 25% loss its a 33.333% loss. Also compared to the loss thhat Star Wars Galaxies had with the release of the NGE 3 million people leaving is a drop in the bucket. Pre-NGE for SWG the accounts were at 400K. One week after the release of the NGE subs were at 50K. Blizzard would have to lose 6.5 Million subscriptions by next sunday to ever emulate what the NGE did for Star Wars Galaxies. And personally I doubt that Blizzard is foolish enough to do something that foolish.

    For the record, 3 million from 10 million is 30%, not 33.333%. Also, losing 30% of your customers in a single financial quarter is absolutely crushing and for any entity to think otherwise demonstrates very little grounding in reality.

  • HorusraHorusra Member EpicPosts: 4,411
    Depends on their projections. Only MMO newcomers thinks a game will retain 100%. But blizzard might have hoped to retain part of that number I highly doubt their projections had them hold more than 7 or 8 millions people.
  • MargraveMargrave Member RarePosts: 1,371

    They can bounce back easy enough.

     

    Expansion brings their fans back, or for the quick cash they could just release another sparkle pony of sorts.

  • GolbezTheLionGolbezTheLion Member UncommonPosts: 347
    Originally posted by Horusra
    Depends on their projections. Only MMO newcomers thinks a game will retain 100%. But blizzard might have hoped to retain part of that number I highly doubt their projections had them hold more than 7 or 8 millions people.

    Exactly.

    Blizzard knew this would happen well ahead of the sub dip actually occurring, they anticipated it and expected it, and when the time came they accepted it.

    You would have to be a complete and utter simpleton to not realize that the popularity of HearthStone and HotS far exceed the losses incurred by WoW. HearthStone has just as many players as WoW, if not more, and HotS is climbing daily. Players in HearthStone and HotS routinely spend much more than the $15 price tag of a monthly subscription on micro-transactions in there respective stores.

    Do the math, people. Instead of having one blockbuster hit constantly generating revenue, they now have three (each catering to a different genre, no less), with a fourth on the way in the form of Overwatch.

  • BladestromBladestrom Member UncommonPosts: 5,001
    This is the essence of my disgust at blizzard, they have an extremely loyal paying customer base who are slowly but surely drifting away much to the detriment of players who have not left, and their answer is continued minimal investment and a decision to abandon any attempt to invest in any future MMO for those players.

    rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar

    Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D

  • angerbeaverangerbeaver Member UncommonPosts: 1,273

    So much hate. I think when WoW closes doors one day it will mark a sad day in MMORPGs. It was not the first on the scene but it definitely helped increase interest in MMORPGs, not only by designers and publishers but by players alike.

    More on topic, I'm with the hype train on this one to try and save the player base.

  • observerobserver Member RarePosts: 3,685
    Originally posted by Margrave

    They can bounce back easy enough.

     

    Expansion brings their fans back, or for the quick cash they could just release another sparkle pony of sorts.

    Yeah, but none of their expansions lost 3 million in one quarter.  That is the key difference. lol.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    Originally posted by Margrave

    They can bounce back easy enough.

    Expansion brings their fans back, or for the quick cash they could just release another sparkle pony of sorts.

    Not quite; expansions bring some fans back and attract some new customers.

    Historically however - at some point - they stop working. EQ1 used to release an expansion every 6 months for example. 

    As I said above I think we need to see the next quarter's numbers but simply saying that the next expansion will make it all right isn't supported out by other games.

    As to releasing another sparkle pony - if it a Skylander Pony certainly. Not sure how many people have picked up on the fact that Activision have sold 250M Skylander figures with AB claiming that this makes it the biggest toy brand ever. Move over WoW!

    Yes folks Skylander's may be little but they are far from insignificant.

  • WicasaWicasa Member UncommonPosts: 77
    Blizz will release an expansion or huge patch around the time the movie comes out. Hearthstone and Hearoes Of The Storm are teaching people how to play and enjoy WoW in a sense, and by the time the 3rd Warcraft movie comes out, there will be a Warcraft 4 game and 20 million WoW players. This is just the beginning folks. 10 years? Ha! Mario and Zelda are much older than that. I like the updated lighting in WoW and how the grass and flowers move now when you run through them. It will just get better or become free to play. Seems like they may have learned from ArcheAge with the whole ship thing, and will let us be pirates at just the right time - around the time Dead Men Tell No Tales comes out 2017...
  • existenzexistenz Member UncommonPosts: 37

    WoW these days is like a facebook game. Log on put misions log out. Nothing interesting. no open world anything. maps are useless. everyone is in town or garisson queued up in some queue for something with some people from some random server

    that is the problem

  • observerobserver Member RarePosts: 3,685
    Originally posted by gervaise1
    Originally posted by Margrave

    They can bounce back easy enough.

    Expansion brings their fans back, or for the quick cash they could just release another sparkle pony of sorts.

     

    As I said above I think we need to see the next quarter's numbers but simply saying that the next expansion will make it all right isn't supported out by other games.

     

    Will the numbers still be relevant though?  It will be interesting to see if Blizzard factors in "token subscribers" with "real money subscribers".

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    Originally posted by observer
    Originally posted by gervaise1

     

    As I said above I think we need to see the next quarter's numbers but simply saying that the next expansion will make it all right isn't supported out by other games.

    Will the numbers still be relevant though?  It will be interesting to see if Blizzard factors in "token subscribers" with "real money subscribers".

    It is a point for sure and could be partly to blame for the drop in subscribers since they said they had not taken tokens into account.

    I would assume that they will factor in tokens - simplest way being to treat them like game cards; once activated that counts as a subscriber. Once they do things will be back to normal. That they are $20 doesn't matter since there are already variations in sub costs: Asia, US, EU, Chinese subscribers pay TenCent who pay Blizzard whatever.

    It is a point worth remembering though that the number this month could be "artificially low". That said if tokens were a significant factor then they would have said so - the numbers were provided as part of their financial report and to hide the fact would open them up to law suits etc. as it would create a false picture of future earnings. What we don't know is what constitutes "significant".

  • observerobserver Member RarePosts: 3,685
    The token subscribers were not added into the latest report, but they might be in the future.  We don't know yet.
  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki
    Originally posted by gervaise1
    Originally posted by observer
    Originally posted by gervaise1

     

     

    Let's not make up things here.

    Blizzard didn't simply say they had not taken tokens into account, they said tokens are not a factor for the reported subscriber number due to their release falling into the second quarter of 2015. The reported subscriber numbers are for the date ending in the first quarter of 2015. That leaves no room for questions.

    Not a single subscription is "hidden" as a token or "just not accounted" because the tokens where not even available at the time the 2.9 Million losses had already been recorded. There was nothing that anyone could decide not to take into account. The heavy losses where all made before token could even play a role.

    Their not counting "yet" implies they will obviously count them as subs

    My mistake; for some reason thought they were active at the end of Feb - as you say they went live in April. 

    Yep the 2.9M loss is s you say a heavy loss. A net loss of 300k for the 6 months either side of WoD in fact (pre-WoD 7.4; WoD 10M; post WoD 7.1M). 

  • IncomparableIncomparable Member UncommonPosts: 1,138

    new but different content.

    player housing and mini games, and it seems they have some of that.

    They just need to take it to the next level and synergize these elements better to make WoW more than simply kill quests but a nice mixture of WoW combat within a detailed space of different mechanics

    Imo, this should be divided into 2 different sections, story as a certain path which can include different mini games and game mechanics, and 2. dynamic zones which can include different game mechanics but change affect the game world but also each areas has a certain context and a certain scenario that plays out as well. The point of this division is that the only story is really the main story and anything else becomes a dynamic system that affects the world with NPCs migrating and changing the landscape - which can tie to in world pvp/pve and npc alignment

    The dynamic areas that have a specific content can be exemplified with when playing a strategy game like civ, or total war, and there are DLC for specific scenarios to make it an epic battle for the player. 

    And mini games which can inlcude racing, card games, sport pvp etc

    They could also offer ways to allow players to make player created content and create dungeons and traps for others to try to clear and reward them based on that, and other player created content options

     

    However, the easiest way to recap more players is a new mmo engine rehaul of the game. Same game on a new engine. The new engine would take the same combat but give it more detailed animatons as well.

    “Write bad things that are done to you in sand, but write the good things that happen to you on a piece of marble”

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