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Mark my words: UO, EQ, and AC1 will ALL outlast World of Warcraft!!
Zaxx99
Member Posts: 1,761
Yes, that's right.
I am predicting now that Ultima Online, Everquest (1), and Asherons Call (1) will ALL have servers still churning when World of Warcraft bites the dust. ...and yes I know how many millions of players WoW has and how few thousands are currently playing a game like Asherons Call. Trust me, I know the numbers... and yet I still believe what I am predicting today.
Let me say this... I am calling "World of Warcraft" as hot as it is much the same to gaming as "The Spice Girls" or even "the New Kids on the Block" were to music. Very, very popular for a short time, and then gone like a shadow in the night.
So... have I lost my marbles?
Perhaps someone agrees?
- Zaxx
Comments
I predict someone will say the same thing about WoW, Eve Online and DDO when the Next Big Thing happens. More specifically: I don't see WoW dying, I see it's population dwinding down to just enough people to keep Blizzard from shutting it down when the next Mass-Market Success comes along.
(Though I'm likely less confidant of that than you are of your prediction; I also see a possibility of Blizzard doing World of Diablo or something and shutting WoW down to avoid competing with themselves.)
I also predict someone will come along and say something like "UO is already dead, what's left is the corpse that EA jiggles around in pretense." And on that one, I'd actually place money
yes, you lost your marbles but that is ok. Hmmm... i don't know why you are making such a prediction. But i have one question for you?
Did you forget blizzard created: Diablo, Warcraft, and Starcraft? are you also aware that all 3 games are still played online and offline? Are you aware that Battlenet still is used pretty strongly. All those games you boasted have at best had hundreds of thousand users. Wow is at 5.5 million. Just based on that fact alone that people still play text Muds you can presume that wow will last well into the future as long if not longer then any of it's predecessor MMO's. I am sorry to say but Blizzards track record alone dictates so.
Faranthil Tanathalos
EverQuest 1 - Ranger
Star Wars Galaxies - Master Ranger
Everquest2 - Ranger WarhammerOnline - Shadow Warrior
WOW - Hunter
That's right I like bows and arrows.
UO is more like a "dead man walking." They already announced that it's being shut down before the end of this year, remember? Saying it will outlast WoW is a little ignorant...
Did they really? where is the news release?
Im not doubting you I would really like to read it.
I think you underestimate the Blizzard fanboys.
lets stay realistic here, shall we? the glorious days of UO, EQ and AC1 are over. and they are losing subscribers with each passing day. slowely, but surely. UO's final days are in sight and really won't make it another 4 years. after EA pulls the plug , its only a matter of time EQ and AC1 bite the dust.
now World of Warcraft. World of Warcraft has broken all MMORPG records. the first weekend after release 200.000 copies where sold. to get a small Idea, thats more then EVE online did in 3 years. currently, World of Warcraft has 6 MILLION!! ACTIVE subscribers. 6 MILLION!. to get a small idea, thats more then: UO+EQ+AC1+EQ2+SWG had ALL TOGETHER.
this is a hard time for MMO's, and the competition is like a murderer. Asheron's call 2 dropped. UO,EQ and AC are still standing,but are slowly losing subscribers because of their age. people leave, but hardly any people return. SWG has received a huge blow after rediculous updates.
In the west, there are currently 2 MMO's that are still growing:
Everquest 2 is slowly regenerating. it never had a HUGE population but it wasn't small either. its slowly growing, albeit not much.
and another one: World of Warcraft. 1 year after release, and over 6 million subscribers. its only a matter of time before Blizzard entertainment announces 7 million subscribers.the game is growing in subscribers each passing day. some people leave, thousands of them join. it goes from mouth to mouth:"I played it and it was AWESOME, you should try too"
Blizzard has gained SO much money, they could keep up the servers another 20 years. trust me, saying UO, EQ or AC1 bites the dust after WoW is rediculous. World of Warcraft is the leading MMO game and it will stay like that for a LONGGGGGG time.
ofcourse we could go over in gameplay details and blabla WOW doesn't last long and blabla. it seems these players like, altough the quick cap lvl, like the gameplay of WoW better then EQ or AC.
the lvl cap is reached in max 4 months. its now one year after, and people who started at release are still playing (or else it would be impossible to hit this amount). there you go.
if it was true what Zaxtor99 said, then WoW would have dropped in subscribers about 6 months ago.
Yet they only keep growing and growing.
If you like the game or not is up to you, but WoW is and will stay for a long time the biggest MMO game.
The reason why WoW is doing so well is because most of the players are people who have never played an MMO before. I know quite a few people who have never played an MMO before but since it is made by Blizzard (the name says it all), they love it.
My personal view, it is the same thing over and over just like any MMO. Plus it has horrible PvP (do not like faction-based, give me FFA!!!
)
More importanly, who cares. If WoW dropped tomorrow, I'd still be happy with Blizzard having provided a year's worth of entertainment.
These are just games ... right?
Ico
Oh, cruel fate, to be thusly boned. Ask not for whom the bone bones. It bones for thee.
Did they really? where is the news release?
Im not doubting you I would really like to read it."
You may be better off doubting...
This is a small quote from the February Newsletter which you yourself can read at www.uo.com and they emailed to me as a former player.
"We, a growing team, are deep into planning out the next two years, mapping out what we want to do and how were going to do it. Well be talking about our full plan for 2006 in upcoming website posts, newsletters and live town hall meetings. There are a couple things I can say about the near future:, mapping out what we want to do and how were going to do it. Well be talking about our full plan for 2006 in upcoming website posts, newsletters and live town hall meetings. There are a couple things I can say about the near future:"
Somehow I don't see "We, a growing team, are deep into planning out the next two years" very related to announcing the shutdown of the game this year.
Then again that's just me.
UO has a strong community of pirate players and shard admins, and therefore it will never die. There are a couple of EQ1 server emulators out there, but EQ private servers get shut down within days of opening. Once "official" EQ shuts down, there will still be pirate servers for it. DAoC has a server emulator floating about although I'm not to sure if anyone has made an Asheron's Call emulator yet. If no one does, then AC will be lost forever. I've heard rumors of an Earth and Beyond private server but I find that highly unlikely since the game wasn't even out for a year.
Bottom line, so long as a server emulator for a game is created and made public before the game shuts down, that game will never die.
You dont think thiers emulators for WoW? WoW has the largest number of pirate servers in operation ive ever seen. About 250+ servers.
"It is in your nature to do one thing correctly; Before me, you rightfully tremble. But, fear is not what you owe me. You owe me awe." ~Francis Dolarhyde
ermmm are u in the head? WoW will never die due to one reason.. Blizzard! starcraft is one of the oldest games yet one of the most played around the world.. starcraft came out before any mmorpg!
wow wont die due to the company behind it
Please. Starcraft is like a child compared to the antiquity of Netrek.
i totally agree with you.
when blizzard releases world of warcraft 2...
holy fuck man, that game will grab like 20 million subscribers and they'll shut down wow.
unlike those other games, wow will have a good sequel =D
--people who believe in abstinence are unsurprisingly also some of the ugliest most sexually undesired people in the world.--
I think sombody is just trying to spew up and start a flame war...
WoW is not a fad.. its a well made game, you might not like it -- but to say it will not outlast games that are in the their dieing days is just silly.
WoW will be around for a long time to come, it is a VERY solid game, with semi-often updates, a outline of what to come as well as the largest playerbase for the time being, with no real competition in sight.
Vanguard maybe, but it doesnt have the franchise pushing power the warcraft universe has so I really think it stands no chance.
WoW is an EXCELLENT example of what happens when you have a good game, that is created by a solid company, with a VERY sucessful franchise.
To suggest it is a fad after 1 year of steadily increasing subscription #'s as well as the planned launch of an expansion in the not to distant future is just silly. I realize your fishing for attention but this is not the way to do it, try somthing a little more constructive.
Or if you really do.. truly beleive what your saying.. gives some facts that I can atleast argue, cause right now it seems like your just giving an opinion with absolutly no justification.
after 6 or so years, I had to change it a little...
Edit: as a note, Slapme makes a great point, one which I agree 100% to.
thats the very reason why they wouldnt release WoW2 or World of Starcraft for a long time to come.
after 6 or so years, I had to change it a little...
Okay, you want rational behind my prediction of WoW not lasting as long as the much older UO, EQ, and AC....
1) People have been saying for 5 years now that Ultima Online is dying. It continues to serve over 100,000 devoted fans. UO continues to put out expansions to further offer more to its players about once per year. Despite many saying year after year after year that UO is at its' end.. it continues to prove otherwise. Why? It called game depth. The sheer amount that you can do in UO is absolutely insane. Compare the ability to construct you own house in almost any fashion with any other games house building features. UO blows games of recent years away here. Crafting is very solid, gives credit to the crafter and contines to be a major part of the games economy. The ability to have vendors and dress your vendors, name your vendors, and stock your vendors with total control of exactly what is seen by the potential buyer is amazing. The vendor depth is untouched even by much newer games. UO still uses a rich economy that continues to circulate really well. Players still need to go to town to trade, to communicate, and to talk with friends. To even think that EA will drop UO anytime soon and drop well over 100,000 loyal fans and over a quarter of a million dollars per month for this game is crazy.
2) Everquest is Sony's baby. (Much as UO is EA's online baby). Sony will not drop EA when they continue to sell 2 or 3 expansions per year for this game so well. Sonys current subscriber base for Everquest is over 400,000 players, many of them extreme hardcore fans who will likely play for a lifetime. Again, credit this to game depth unforseen in newer games.
3) Turbines Asheron's Call probably has some of the most loyal fans of any mmo out there. The crafting in AC imo is absolutely unparallelled in any mmo, even considering Horizons rich crafting system. Asherons Call went down to a low of about 35,000 hardcore fans before the release of a very solid expansion last summer "Throne of Destiny". With this expansion, Turbine now states a solid subscriber base of more then 80,000. Probably the one mmo where the company behind it is so devoted to it's game that new free content is continually added, most of the time in monthly updates.. each and every month new changes are made to further expand and enrich their gameworld content and features.
All 3 of these games continue for one solid reason. The game depth behind the games is so insanely solid that players leave. They try newer, prettier games, and they almost always come back. Most of the players now of all three of these games have spent five or more years playing their game..sometimes leaving for a few months but always returning to the features and depth that they simply cannot find an equal to in the newer, shinier games of recent years.
Compare this to a game like WoW. A very solid game, yes. A great company in Blizzard, yes. But the difference between Blizzard with WoW and the three companies and their entry mmos I mentioned above to me is blatantly obvious...
All three of the oldtimer games above have been made and updated for the soul purpose of longevity. WoW was made a helluva lot more streamlined to be accepted by many more common people and players. It was made with the soul purpose of nothing more then making a fortune fast. The depth of WoW doesn't even come close to any of the three older games I mention. This is proven a million times over right here on the boards with tons of players saying that they played it anywhere from 2 to 6 months or so and got bored to hell. When a person gets that bored that fast and has absolutely nothing to do, it is unlikely that they will return. Sure they might return with WoW's upcoming expansion for what 15 levels? A month or two later, they will be bored to death again. Why? Lack of depth in the game. WoW will only reach so many subscribers out there. In a couple of years when it's age and lack of depth both are widely known, it will finally crash and burn. I predict that about 6 months after this summers expansion... its' subscriber base will plummet from the sky like a shot down plane. Yes WoW is a good game. Yes it is fun. But yes it gets boring much, much, much faster then UO, EQ, and AC. The thing is that Blizzard will probably make much more money from WoW in only about 3 years then UO, EQ, and AC will together even if they all survive for 15 years. But that doesn't mean that it's a better game or a deeper game. And it certainly doesn't mean it has the longevity of any of those older granddaddies of the mmorpg market. I honestly think that WoW will be replaced with another newer, prettier sequel of somesort in a few years as Blizzard will certainly have plenty of money to produce one. I only hope that they go for a little more depth in their game content the next time around. But why would they when they have the perfect ability to make so much more money so much faster with a much more mainstream lackluster product such as WoW?
That's just my prediction. I could be 100% wrong. I think I do make atleast some valid points however to back up my "insane prediction".
- Zaxx
Your mind is like a parachute, it's only useful when it's open.
Don't forget, you can use the block function on trolls.
Starcraft isn't one of the "oldest games", but the ones that spring to my mind as older are *also* Blizzard. Hell, do you know that Battle.Net still supports Diablo? Not just Diablo II, Diablo, the original, the very first Battle.Net game!
Chris Mattern
..Diablo and Diablo 2 (even on the ridiculously bugged and open to cheats "battlenet) are NOT mmorpgs. Battlenet is not a mmorpg. I fail to see the connection with battlenet and the longevity of WoW, which is a pay-to-play mmo... not a free battleserver for single player game avatars.
- Zaxx
wow, i cant satnd it when people say WoW has like broken records or anything...NCsoft has always had the largest playerbase and will always
AC1? I would so take that bet. I'd put everything I earn on that bet. If it isn't clear, I have no doubt WoW will easily outlast AC1. WoW has way too far to fall.
Including every copy of Guild Wars ever sold, NCsoft's total accounts for all of it's games combined number less than half of Wow's 6 million active subscribers.
http://www.ncsoft.com/eng/nccompany/ir_data_report01.asp