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The Health of the MMO Market
Eldurian
Member EpicPosts: 2,736
I stated in another topic that the MMO market is in decline thinking that a fairly obvious statement, but it's one that brought some disagreement. I'm going to go ahead and submit my evidence.
Graph 1: Interest in Top MMOs Stacked Up Against League of Legends
https://i.gyazo.com/df7e6d2518fde9d907ee30a7dbf126c0.png
Here you can see a drastic fall of in WoW's popularity and even the most popular current MMO's failing to really reach it's popularity, while LoL has a massive surge in popularity.
Graph 2: Interest in Top MOBAs and World Builders Stacked Up Against World of Warcraft
https://i.gyazo.com/8050177434a3dec57b20cbdfe2bcc157.png
In this graph you see massive interest in Minecraft and LoL, and even Overwatch flirting with WoW's popularity levels.
Graph 3: Interest in MMOs Over Time
https://i.gyazo.com/7e8cb8e0ba4699b3e44cdec3a0e13b3a.png
What all of these graphs are suggesting is that there was a surge in MMO popularity and a fall off. While new MMOs are rising to replace older ones these new MMOs are not as popular as MMOs used to be and there is still a demonstrable fall-off in overall interest in the industry.
While people might say games like Minecraft and MOBAs are not direct competition for the MMO industry the fact remains that they have had a massive surge in popularity around the same time MMOs have hit the hardest decline. Correlation isn't causation but in this case it suggests something.
This data would back up statements made by MMORPG staff members:
I assume someone on the forefront of the MMO community with a presumably greater knowledge of MMOs than most of the posters on these boards has a reason to say something like that.
We're also forced to look at the idea that the majority of MMOs have gone Free to Play, and only 2.2% of F2P players actually pay into the game (Sinclair, 2014) so while MMOs have been able to retain a portion of their userbase by doing this it suggests that the decline in MMO popularity would be even more staggering if users were paying the same price for MMOs they did before this major decline.
It also means that when you compare League of Legends 946 billion of revenue to WoW's 742 (Superdata, 2014) and consider that LoL makes $1.32 a player (Superdata, 2014) that suggests a truly MASSIVE player base for LoL.
While I'm sure the reliability of my data will be attacked (understandably, it's hard to find reliable data on these subjects) I'd also like to point out that you will probably see most of the people countering my position offering no data, or sources even less reliable than what I found. Please prove me wrong.
Graph 1: Interest in Top MMOs Stacked Up Against League of Legends
https://i.gyazo.com/df7e6d2518fde9d907ee30a7dbf126c0.png
Here you can see a drastic fall of in WoW's popularity and even the most popular current MMO's failing to really reach it's popularity, while LoL has a massive surge in popularity.
Graph 2: Interest in Top MOBAs and World Builders Stacked Up Against World of Warcraft
https://i.gyazo.com/8050177434a3dec57b20cbdfe2bcc157.png
In this graph you see massive interest in Minecraft and LoL, and even Overwatch flirting with WoW's popularity levels.
Graph 3: Interest in MMOs Over Time
https://i.gyazo.com/7e8cb8e0ba4699b3e44cdec3a0e13b3a.png
What all of these graphs are suggesting is that there was a surge in MMO popularity and a fall off. While new MMOs are rising to replace older ones these new MMOs are not as popular as MMOs used to be and there is still a demonstrable fall-off in overall interest in the industry.
While people might say games like Minecraft and MOBAs are not direct competition for the MMO industry the fact remains that they have had a massive surge in popularity around the same time MMOs have hit the hardest decline. Correlation isn't causation but in this case it suggests something.
This data would back up statements made by MMORPG staff members:
BillMurphy said:Honestly, it's the genre itself. We're not immune to when the money goes out of the AAA MMO world. One day it'll return, and people will return. Until then, we do what we can and try to entertain you guys.
I assume someone on the forefront of the MMO community with a presumably greater knowledge of MMOs than most of the posters on these boards has a reason to say something like that.
We're also forced to look at the idea that the majority of MMOs have gone Free to Play, and only 2.2% of F2P players actually pay into the game (Sinclair, 2014) so while MMOs have been able to retain a portion of their userbase by doing this it suggests that the decline in MMO popularity would be even more staggering if users were paying the same price for MMOs they did before this major decline.
It also means that when you compare League of Legends 946 billion of revenue to WoW's 742 (Superdata, 2014) and consider that LoL makes $1.32 a player (Superdata, 2014) that suggests a truly MASSIVE player base for LoL.
While I'm sure the reliability of my data will be attacked (understandably, it's hard to find reliable data on these subjects) I'd also like to point out that you will probably see most of the people countering my position offering no data, or sources even less reliable than what I found. Please prove me wrong.
Comments
http://twitch.tv/woetothevanquished
http://baronsofthegalaxy.com/ An MMO game I created, solo. It's live now and absolutely free to play!
I remember when I played my first online games thinking how cool it would be to play a game where hundreds or thousands of other players were all playing alongside you in a virtual world a few years before I ever heard the word "Everquest" or "MMO". It seemed to me like the coolest thing that could ever possibly happen in gaming. And when I tried my first MMO (Runescape) I was indeed immediately addicted and blown away by it.
However non-MMO online multiplayer games have advanced massively in the time since I first tried MMOs. MMOs themselves, really haven't advanced that much since the release of WoW beyond graphical updates and ironing out a few problems.
My overall point being it's not that there weren't non-MMO games when MMOs soared to power. It's that MMOs have stagnated to the point of barely any noticeable advancement since 2003 while the rest of the industry (and the majority of gamers) has moved on without them.
Social media is a huge part of people's lives today. Therefore, I feel like the ''massivly multiplayer social experience'' feels less shiny nowadays. People are used nowadays to being a couple of touches away from talking to others on the other side of the globe. This accessibility didn't exist back in the day and online gaming worlds felt so spcial and facinating.
I feel that's why the most successful titles nowadays are almost all competitive games. From League of Legends to Overwatch to CSGO etc. People want to play these fast-phased games where they can decide if they want to play for a bit and go off or play more hardcore.
I simply believe that MMO's are too consuming to be popular as of right now. There is also way more competition from other gaming genres. In the near future, I can see simliar MMO's to Destiny and The division becoming popular. I don't see the old MMORPG's becoming a big thing against though. And if they are, they will be more on the sandboxy type of experience. MMORPG's if they are to emerge again, are probably going to relay on the freedom they give the players. In a couple of years, I think fans of sandbox MMO's are going to be satisfied and VR, if it gets improved in the next 5-10 years will probably become a huge part of that.
There shouldn't be a set amount of time to play an MMO. A good MMO should allow you to pick it up and play it a bit here and a bit there if that's what you want and still have fun, but also have things that inspire people to be active members of the community.
MMOs are a virtual world, and the world is filled with many kinds of people. MMOs should be too. Ideally an MMO should have a place for casuals and hardcores in ever sense of those words (time investment, level of challenge desired, risk tolerance etc.), PvEers and PvPers, crafters and fighters, solo players and group players etc. The problem isn't that casual (In terms of challenge and risk), solo, PvEers ruined everything. It's that game developers ruined everything when they refused to develop content for anyone else.
I'm not debating which MOBA is better or worse, but at least they offer something different and to some extent "unique" from each other, whereas MMOs have largely failed to do that, instead relying on IPs to sell their games (at least the AAA teams have). Games like MOBAs allow players to achieve something by spending only 30-45 minutes, and the constant change in heroes (both ally and enemy) brings a slight element of unpredictability to each games that helps lessen the feeling of repetitiveness. Another genre like World Building games leave the decision making process entirely in the hands of players, free to do whatever and go wherever they want, the players have control over their own achievements.
MMOs for so long have offered very little in terms of unpredictability, and have taken freedom away from players in favor of a wholly guided experience akin to single-player RPGs, but with a story of lesser quality (with some few exceptions). It's no wonder that the popularity of MMOs is shrinking. As a player, you may not get "the whole package" you're looking for in an MMO, but you can play a few different games and fulfill some of your desires that way.
I don't feel it is worth comparing the MMO genre to any other. It is pointless as other gaming genres have always existed, there have always been other great games to tempt us away from MMOs so just because mobas are popular right now, doesn't necessarily mean they are taking players away from MMOs or that they're having a greater effect now than other genres did 10 years ago.
So, I will ignore your first two graphs.
I feel we should only look at the MMO genre itself and trends over time. Your third graph looks at that. I don't really know what your data is, it looks like a history of the search term "massively multiplayer online role playing game" as reported by Google. If so, it's a useful graph but probably too limited to draw any conclusions. If you were able to combine that graph with similar graphs for "MMO", "MMORPG" "Massively-multiplayer" etc it would be a bit better (tbh, I'd expect it to look the same).
The key stats I think are worth looking at:
- Number of MMOs - this number continues to go up, so looks healthy
- Total Revenue Per Year - hard to judge, appears to be going up but sites like superdata classify lol, dota2 etc as mmos which is obviously incorrect
- Average spend per player - again, hard to judge as we have little data available, but appears to be going down. This is the biggest sign that the genre is struggling.
- Average retention rates - again, we have little data to go on but, again, appears to be dropping.
- Upcoming AAA titles - I personally only know of one (New World) but other companies may simply be keeping quiet about new projects.
I doubt we'll ever get enough data to be able to analyse the market properly, so all we can really go off is a gut feeling. My gut says the genre is in trouble at the moment, we're in a slump and things aren't looking good short-term.However, I can also see three possible routes to pull us out of the slump:
I think we're still going to be stuck in this slump for another few years, but I'm hopefully the genre will have a revival by 2020.
Now that a wide range of short-format PVP games are available, we see that the vast majority of gamer's don't really like MMORPG's. The clues were visible a long time ago, as "MMO players" demanded the "streamlining" of MMORPG's and shouted for the removal of the "boring stuff".
We are now at a point where many of the people that enjoyed some of the elements of this genre have given up and moved to other types of games or some have simply changed their interest to the type of game that gives them the type of experience they enjoyed in the MMORPGs. We who remember this genre's zenith must also accept that it may never ever return to what we once experienced.
Its a link that has no basis, unless the only criteria for that basis is that they are played online, which is tenuous at best, and as the linch pin of the entire argument, its more than slightly specious.
I am tempted to go on, but the whole supposition is so preposterous that i have to wonder if its even worth the effort. O.o
1) The Market is saturated with MMOs, MOBAs and Online Games. There are more games to play now than you can possibly manage in you lifetime (If you want to play them meaningfully)
The Market don't need more at the moment as the player base is not growing fast enough to justify more of those games being made, at the rate they were made before.
2) MMORPGs are supposed to have a 10 year cycle, so Publishers that have 1 MMO (Blizzard, EA, Bethesda) in their stable tend to be satisfied with what they have, as these are expensive games to make and a risky business.
There are Publishers that are focused on MMO games like NCSoft and operate more than 1 MMO, but even those Companies have more than enough to deal with for the next 4-5 years.
3) Developers don't know what MMO players want. After using WoW as the main blueprint for every MMO that came out after 2004 and after the WoW bubble burst, developer discovered that they didn't know anything about making MMORPGs after all, and still they don't.
As it is risky for any company to produce an original MMO, most prefer not too risk until someone finds the right formula.
Amazon is the only one risking by making a Sandbox MMORPG as they don't have one yet.
4) MOBAs robbed MMORPGs of their player base.
Many players used to play MMORPGs because of its massively PvP. With the advent of MOBAs most of that players just moved over there.
We are never going to see 4-5 new MMORPGs being made every year like it used to be in the past, but I believe we are going to see better quality and more original MMOs in the future.
So the future might not be so bright but it's not gonna be that bleak either.
There isn't much room for new MMOs in the current saturated market.
Let me explain. Back in 2005 76 million Americans played video games (or around 25% of the US population) versus 150 million today (or 42%). In addition to that, about 137 million Americans (45%) in 2005 had the Internet,compared to 303 million today (around 93%). Finally, the last big thing is the proliferation of Internet-based games. These days, the expectation is that there will be some manner of online multiplayer, whereas in 2004 these games were scarce. In fact, I can tell you first-hand that multiplayer was, more frequently, facilitated through things like LAN parties. My back will also attest to this (since it did a lot of computer carrying back then). Couple all of this with the fact that there are emergent genres (like MOBA) and it's very easy to see how that trend could be slanted.
The FACTS are that 1) There are definitively MORE players playing MMORPGs than there ever have been, 2) there are definitively MORE games than there ever has been and; 3) there is DEFINITIVELY MORE money being made on MMOs than there EVER has been.
As an industry, it's larger than it ever has been. However, if you're attempting to argue that against the general gaming populous the MMORPG genre is shrinking (ie market share) then yes. On every other meaningful marker the MMO industry is actually healthier than it ever has been. If you need further support for this, try running a trend on Dungeons & Dragons since 2004 in the Games category and then try to make the argument to someone familiar with D&D that it is 20% of what it was in 2004. The reality is that it's actually healthier than it has ever been.
Crazkanuk
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Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
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an increase in consumers in a market does NOT mean all sub-markets grow at the same constant rate
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
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Are you saying 20% of all computer games are MMOs? Doesn't seem likely.
Are you saying 20% of all PC games are MMOs? Also doesn't seem likely.
Are you saying 20% of all new games are MMOs? Also doesn't seem likely.
Are you saying 20% of gaming revenue comes from MMOs? Plausible, but still unlikely.
Are you saying 20% of all online revenue comes from MMOs? This I could believe.
Come on, try to demonstrate at least a little aptitude for deductive reasoning here Phry.
The Sims released in 2000. Three years before WoW and well before MMOs reached their peak popularity. The first Call of Duty released 2003, the same year as WoW and also before MMOs reached peak popularity.
In order for those games to be a significant factor in the fall of MMOs you would have to see an increase in their popularity that correlates with a fall in MMO popularity. Something you're unlikely to find as the rise of their popularity predates or correlates with the peak of MMO popularity. A variable that remains constant isn't an agent of change.
The first major incline in Minecraft's popularity shortly after it was released correlates perfectly with a massive drop in MMO popularity. Check out this graph again and watch what WoW does during Minecraft's largest popularity spike. Find me another drop that dramatic on the whole graph. You can also see WoW never really recovers from that loss.
The association between LoL and WoW is a bit weaker, but again you see that it's rising in popularity as WoW declines in popularity.
This all makes sense as world building / survival games are going to appeal to a lot of the same people as MMOs, and MOBAs are basically an evolved form of MMO PvP arenas, except now you can access them without the drudgery of the rest of the game.
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
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Except WoW has sold 10 million+ copies every single expansion since it released. Also, every single expansion sees a decline once the content updates are finished. WoW is not a great example, really. There is another factor that you aren't accounting for, and that is the homogenization of the term MMORPG. Destiny has had to fight tooth and nail against people saying it's an MMO. The Division embraced it and actually claimed to be an MMO. Neither are what most people familiar with traditional MMOs would consider to be MMOs.
However, the factual evidence still goes against your theory. There isn't any actual evidence that it's any less popular. Actually, WoWs performance over time only supports that the market is fairly stable, however linear it might be.
Crazkanuk
----------------
Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
----------------
Most of us do not see the industries attempt from a few companies to redefine a multiplayer game as an MMO as some horrible injustice done to the sake of creativity.
we are not that stupid/.
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As to point three, show me your data. Before your argument is to be taken seriously I need evidence of your claim, of which you have provided none.
Given that MC itself was inspired by a sandbox MMO (Wurm Online) it's no surprise this new genre has claimed a good chunk of the MMO market.
I think fans are underestimating this impact. I think beancounters at major gaming companies know it though
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5+ years ago I played MMOs nearly every day even though I always played solo. But why? well because at the time I couldnt find a single player game with the same level of crafting depth and crafting is what I like.
now single player games with a lifetime of depth of all over the place AND many if not most of them I could join a server and play with others if I like. as a result in the past 3 years the only MMO I have played has been going back to Fallen Earth for about a month of which I never paid a dime
Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.
Please do not respond to me