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Why are MMOs dying?

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  • MaxBaconMaxBacon Member LegendaryPosts: 7,846
    MOBAs taking over soon? RIP.
  • EldurianEldurian Member EpicPosts: 2,736
    edited July 2017
    AAAMEOW said:

    I think the guy is saying the overall number of mmorpg players in the world don't necessary decrease.  There are just so many mmorpg now people are spaced out.

    I personally think the overall number of mmorpg players in the world increased.  
    Except the growth of new titles has slowed too. Not even really slow, in the west it's nearly completely grinded to a halt. Check out the hype list. What do you see? I see kickstarted games. Every single one of them. The funding by major companies has been pulled. They've all but abandoned MMOs. We have rumors of games to come like the Magic The Gathering MMO but for the most part all the big titles announced recently keep getting canceled before completion.

    And what have we seen coming out of the past two years? Asian MMOs only pretty much. And not even very many of them.
    Xasapis said:
    As for mmorpgs, it seems that the amount of shovelware has decreased dramatically and only key titles retain their population or grow right now
    And those games are..... ? Certainly not WoW. WoW is in decline. EVE is in decline. Everything is in decline. You look at the longterm trends of average server population of every MMO and it's decline. You go to the communities of these servers and they are all talking about how their game is declining.

    Of course players all blame the game company, the game etc. But it's universal. Everyone is talking about how the games they play are dying out. The WoW and EVE of today are the Anarchy Online, Everquest and Ultima Online of tomorrow. Tiny little communities with only the most diehard fans still clinging on.
  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591
    edited July 2017
    Eldurian said:
    AAAMEOW said:

    I think the guy is saying the overall number of mmorpg players in the world don't necessary decrease.  There are just so many mmorpg now people are spaced out.

    I personally think the overall number of mmorpg players in the world increased.  
    Except the growth of new titles has slowed too. Not even really slow, in the west it's nearly completely grinded to a halt. Check out the hype list. What do you see? I see kickstarted games. Every single one of them. The funding by major companies has been pulled. They've all but abandoned MMOs. We have rumors of games to come like the Magic The Gathering MMO but for the most part all the big titles announced recently keep getting canceled before completion.

    And what have we seen coming out of the past two years? Asian MMOs only pretty much. And not even very many of them.
    Xasapis said:
    As for mmorpgs, it seems that the amount of shovelware has decreased dramatically and only key titles retain their population or grow right now
    And those games are..... ? Certainly not WoW. WoW is in decline. EVE is in decline. Everything is in decline. You look at the longterm trends of average server population of every MMO and it's decline. You go to the communities of these servers and they are all talking about how their game is declining.

    Of course players all blame the game company, the game etc. But it's universal. Everyone is talking about how the games they play are dying out. The WoW and EVE of today are the Anarchy Online, Everquest and Ultima Online of tomorrow. Tiny little communities with only the most diehard fans still clinging on.

     



    Well....

    If it is as you say, I hope it's because of the monetization model.

    edit: wish it would post the same way it looks when I make it ;)


    TheScavenger

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • AAAMEOWAAAMEOW Member RarePosts: 1,617
    edited July 2017
    Eldurian said:
    AAAMEOW said:

    I think the guy is saying the overall number of mmorpg players in the world don't necessary decrease.  There are just so many mmorpg now people are spaced out.

    I personally think the overall number of mmorpg players in the world increased.  
    Except the growth of new titles has slowed too. Not even really slow, in the west it's nearly completely grinded to a halt. Check out the hype list. What do you see? I see kickstarted games. Every single one of them. The funding by major companies has been pulled. They've all but abandoned MMOs. We have rumors of games to come like the Magic The Gathering MMO but for the most part all the big titles announced recently keep getting canceled before completion.

    And what have we seen coming out of the past two years? Asian MMOs only pretty much. And not even very many of them.
    Xasapis said:
    As for mmorpgs, it seems that the amount of shovelware has decreased dramatically and only key titles retain their population or grow right now



    Before wow, I don't know if there are even 2 million western mmorpg players.  

    My take is if you take wow out of the equation, the western mmorpg is just a tiny niche market which "never" have that many players ever.

    Even wow dont' have that many players if you take away the asian players.
    Post edited by AAAMEOW on
  • cameltosiscameltosis Member LegendaryPosts: 3,847
    Eldurian said:
    AAAMEOW said:

    I think the guy is saying the overall number of mmorpg players in the world don't necessary decrease.  There are just so many mmorpg now people are spaced out.

    I personally think the overall number of mmorpg players in the world increased.  
    Except the growth of new titles has slowed too. Not even really slow, in the west it's nearly completely grinded to a halt. Check out the hype list. What do you see? I see kickstarted games. Every single one of them. The funding by major companies has been pulled. They've all but abandoned MMOs. We have rumors of games to come like the Magic The Gathering MMO but for the most part all the big titles announced recently keep getting canceled before completion.

    And what have we seen coming out of the past two years? Asian MMOs only pretty much. And not even very many of them.
    Xasapis said:
    As for mmorpgs, it seems that the amount of shovelware has decreased dramatically and only key titles retain their population or grow right now
    And those games are..... ? Certainly not WoW. WoW is in decline. EVE is in decline. Everything is in decline. You look at the longterm trends of average server population of every MMO and it's decline. You go to the communities of these servers and they are all talking about how their game is declining.

    Of course players all blame the game company, the game etc. But it's universal. Everyone is talking about how the games they play are dying out. The WoW and EVE of today are the Anarchy Online, Everquest and Ultima Online of tomorrow. Tiny little communities with only the most diehard fans still clinging on.
    To be fair, the long term trends of MMOs have always been decline. There was an analysis done 2004/2005 ish (pre-wow) on growth / retention in MMOs that showed for the average MMO, the playerbase would grow slowly after release, then peak within a month or two of the first expansion, after which they all declined. 

    The model has somewhat changed today - the average MMO peaks during the first month of release, then goes into decline from then on, so there is much less of a "golden era" within an MMO, its pretty much downhill right from the start. 

    There are a few outliers to the average - WoW and EvE - but for most MMOs it's the same. I would be very curious to see active player numbers for ESO and FFXIV as they both feel like they might fit more with the 2004 model than the modern model. 



    But, player retention / numbers within individual MMOs has never been a good way to gauge the health of the MMO industry. If that is what we used, nobody would ever make an MMO again as they're all "dying". What we need is:
    • Total number of MMOs
    • Total number of MMORPGs
    • Total number of active players
    • Average spend per player per game
    • Number of MMOs in development
    • Number of AAA MMOs in development
    Unfortunately, none of this data is available to us. The closest we get is the SuperData reports, but they only collect data on a small fraction of the industry and they don't know what an MMO is. If you had the time, you could probably plot a timeline of released and shut down MMORPGs for the last 20 years but you'd probably have to restrict it to "The West". 

    The most telling metric from my point of view is number of AAA MMOs in development. Now, granted some studios may be developing stuff in secret, but as far as I know there is only 1 currently in development (New World - Amazon Studios). This, to me, indicates that all the top studios have done their own indepth research and determined that the market isn't there anymore, so it's not worth the risk. 

    I personally would view that as an opportunity - to me that indicates that the market is being let down by the current crop of developers - but it is a risky opportunity as it requires producing something different from what is already available. 
    Currently Playing: WAR RoR - Spitt rr7X Black Orc | Scrotling rr6X Squig Herder | Scabrous rr4X Shaman

  • XasapisXasapis Member RarePosts: 6,337
    Let me think what titles made so much money, that are still profitable to run today and have a healthy playerbase:
    • WoW (the obvious one)
    • SW:TOR (gained some massive traction since F2P)
    • ESO (similar to SW:TOR)
    • Final Fantasy Online (big influx of players with latest expansion, rare subscription model too)
    • EVE online
    • BDO (probably the most successful of the Korean based mmorpgs atm)
    • GTA online
    • Destiny
    Speaking of Destiny, it's funny how Bioware trashed the Mass Effect franchise to create a Destiny clone. It's as if they believe that the mmorpg space provides an opportunity for massive profits, even compared to a heavy weight IP, like the ME one.
  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    edited July 2017
    Xasapis said:
    Let me think what titles made so much money, that are still profitable to run today and have a healthy playerbase:
    • WoW (the obvious one)
    • SW:TOR (gained some massive traction since F2P)
    • ESO (similar to SW:TOR)
    • Final Fantasy Online (big influx of players with latest expansion, rare subscription model too)
    • EVE online
    • BDO (probably the most successful of the Korean based mmorpgs atm)
    • GTA online
    • Destiny
    Speaking of Destiny, it's funny how Bioware trashed the Mass Effect franchise to create a Destiny clone. It's as if they believe that the mmorpg space provides an opportunity for massive profits, even compared to a heavy weight IP, like the ME one.
    is Destiny itself basically a clone of a standard generic FPS game?

    sorry that last bit made me laugh a bit

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

    Please do not respond to me

  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591
    Xasapis said:
    Let me think what titles made so much money, that are still profitable to run today and have a healthy playerbase:
    • WoW (the obvious one)
    • SW:TOR (gained some massive traction since F2P)
    • ESO (similar to SW:TOR)
    • Final Fantasy Online (big influx of players with latest expansion, rare subscription model too)
    • EVE online
    • BDO (probably the most successful of the Korean based mmorpgs atm)
    • GTA online
    • Destiny
    Speaking of Destiny, it's funny how Bioware trashed the Mass Effect franchise to create a Destiny clone. It's as if they believe that the mmorpg space provides an opportunity for massive profits, even compared to a heavy weight IP, like the ME one.
    The Mass Effect franchise would make a great setting for an MMORPG. For curiosities sake, it's too bad they didn't go with ME instead of Star Wars. I wonder what it would have turned out like.
    TheScavenger

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • cameltosiscameltosis Member LegendaryPosts: 3,847
    Xasapis said:
    Let me think what titles made so much money, that are still profitable to run today and have a healthy playerbase:
    • WoW (the obvious one)
    • SW:TOR (gained some massive traction since F2P)
    • ESO (similar to SW:TOR)
    • Final Fantasy Online (big influx of players with latest expansion, rare subscription model too)
    • EVE online
    • BDO (probably the most successful of the Korean based mmorpgs atm)
    • GTA online
    • Destiny
    Speaking of Destiny, it's funny how Bioware trashed the Mass Effect franchise to create a Destiny clone. It's as if they believe that the mmorpg space provides an opportunity for massive profits, even compared to a heavy weight IP, like the ME one.
    (GTAV and Destiny aren't MMOs...)

    You're original statement was about MMOs that retain or grow their population, not about revenue or profitability. 

    SW:TOR, for example, tanked in terms of population. It peaked at 1.7mil active players (launch month) and dropped to below 500k within 3 months (500k was EA's break even point). The switch to F2P briefing brought them back above 500k, before it dropped again. However, F2P made the game more money, allowing it to stay alive. 

    WoW has been in decline for many years. EvE is now in decline. GTA has been in decline in terms of population for a while. Destiny had a very swift population decline too. ESO, FF and BDO I don't know enough about, anecdotal evidence suggests ESO population is on a slow decline. 


    But, we shouldn't be surprised at this. The more we play the same game, the more likely we are to get bored and leave. The older a game, the less likely new players are to join it. Even a game that is still adding content, through patches, DLC and expansions, is still expected to see a population decline as it still remains difficult to attract new customers and convince old customers to come back. 


    Weirdly, given the current state of the market, I actually think ESO and FFXIV are well placed to do well long term. They both appeal to western players but have no AAA competition on the horizon. So, if you're playing FFXIV and love MMOs, what game are you going to move to? There is nothing in the upcoming MMO space to take you away from the game, so I actually think ESO and FFXIV are going to continue doing well for longer than expected, simply due to lack of competition. 
    Currently Playing: WAR RoR - Spitt rr7X Black Orc | Scrotling rr6X Squig Herder | Scabrous rr4X Shaman

  • XasapisXasapis Member RarePosts: 6,337
    I'm not the OP, what original statement?
  • Brald_IronheartBrald_Ironheart Member UncommonPosts: 119
    I decided I don't like hybrid action combat at all.  I only like EQ2/WoW style combat or full action combat like Neverwinter or BnS.
    Roleplayinn.com - New forum for people who love role-playing of all kinds - tabletop/pencil & paper, live-action, and role-playing in mmorpgs.
  • MoiraeMoirae Member RarePosts: 3,318
    It's dying as they offer less and less than they used to. Nothing to do with way back machine or "the feeling we used to have" or any of that other crap. That's the millenials and gen z talking. They expect less than they deserve so that's what they are getting, and they don't fight. If you want your moneys worth, then you will always need to fight against those who are trying to rob you by barely giving  you what you need. 
  • EldurianEldurian Member EpicPosts: 2,736
    edited July 2017
    Xasapis said:
    Let me think what titles made so much money, that are still profitable to run today and have a healthy playerbase:
    • WoW (the obvious one)
    • SW:TOR (gained some massive traction since F2P)
    • ESO (similar to SW:TOR)
    • Final Fantasy Online (big influx of players with latest expansion, rare subscription model too)
    • EVE online
    • BDO (probably the most successful of the Korean based mmorpgs atm)
    • GTA online
    • Destiny
    Speaking of Destiny, it's funny how Bioware trashed the Mass Effect franchise to create a Destiny clone. It's as if they believe that the mmorpg space provides an opportunity for massive profits, even compared to a heavy weight IP, like the ME one.
    I'm not arguing there aren't any MMOs on the market able to turn a profit. The issue is that first off, the most recent game to come out on that list was in 2014. The rest are older. Some of them being over a decade old.

    Second off, all their populations are in decline.

    When there are few new titles coming into the market and all the older titles are declining, what do you call that? No. The genre isn't dead yet. I'm hoping some of the kickstarted titles breath new life into the genre before it ever comes to that. But right at this moment in 2017 it's not doing well. It's in decline, and has been for the past few years. 

    We've been watching big companies turn their nose up at MMOs since ESO for the most part and none of the indie companies that came in with the kickstarter wave have produced anything decent as of yet.
  • Brald_IronheartBrald_Ironheart Member UncommonPosts: 119
    edited July 2017
    Eldurian said:

    As to the other interpretation of your question, what is causing them to die. Lack of innovation and the fact people are fed up with grinding.
    I am totally fed up with grinding.  I am tired of playing the same game over and over.  I dislike cash shops.  I don't like themeparks.  If that means I'm done playing MMORPGS, so be it.  Maybe some of the Indie games on the horizon will be better, but I'm not especially optimistic. 

    Maybe the fault is with one of the core concepts of these first few generations of MMORPGs.  Perhaps it's not possible to create a persistent virtual world that is interesting to the majority of gamers long term if every player is assuming the role of an adventurer or hero.  The real world is not full of adventurers and heroes.  The worlds in most tabletop rpgs or single player rpgs are not full of adventurers and heroes either.  In the single player rpgs I played that were the most fun to me, the characters I controlled were doing something necessary or important that only they could do,  (Or they just happen to be the only ones that choose to do it.)  What those characters did had meaning and purpose within the framework of the story and the game world.  The world was actually changed by their choices, words, and deeds.   

    I don't think any MMORPG will appeal to the majority of people for long if it only offers one basic path, whether that is hero, villain, soldier, mercenary, sailor, pirate or anything else.  Being able to choose my alignment, race, class, profession, appearance, equipment, and stat progression/build don't really matter to me if I end up in the same place as everyone else regardless.  If my choices don't ultimately make a difference in the game world, for good or evil, then why did I bother to do anything?  What's the point of playing a Massively Multi-player Online Role-Playing Game if all I do in the end is grind?
    Post edited by Brald_Ironheart on
    Eldurian
    Roleplayinn.com - New forum for people who love role-playing of all kinds - tabletop/pencil & paper, live-action, and role-playing in mmorpgs.
  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Nilden said:


    Oh course who cares if we are talking about MMOs on MMORPG.com anymore...

    and by MMORPG.com gamelist definition, Destiny is a MMOFPS. So there you are ...
  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775

    (GTAV and Destiny aren't MMOs...)


    BTW the definition of the game list on this site, Destiny is a MMOFPS.
  • SpottyGekkoSpottyGekko Member EpicPosts: 6,916
    MMORPG's aren't dying, they're just settling into their niche.

    When they were the only game in town, everyone played them, because there was nothing else MMO-wise. So MMORPG's were "artificially" popular for a few years. 

    And half that playerbase whined daily on the forums to have things simplified, sped-up and streamlined. They didn't really like MMORPG's, but they didn't have any alternatives, so they tried to change the games they WERE playing.

    Now that there are countless alternatives, those that want multiplayer (but not MMORPG's) are free to go elsewhere.
  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441
    btdt said:
    MMOs aren't dying... it's just that they aren't the same as they used to be.  Some people seem to think that if they could hop into the wayback machine they could rekindle the exact same feeling they once had.  Reality is, that was different times and everyone changes.  Sort of like rebuilding some old muscle car... not quite the same thing as owning one when they were a thing.  It's trying to hold on to the past... that is all.
    While that is true you could get a similar feeling if the game were different enough. Of course people who have played very similar games for many years often have less fun.

    The genre have simply been doing the same for too long and loose players because of it. It isn't dying or anything but another 10 years of exactly the same might very well have that effect.

    We need a few games that still are MMORPGs but different enough to not feel like we already played it for years.

    It is nothing strange, a FPS just like Doom would probably do poorly. All genres need to evolve now and then, FPS games had a huge leap when Half-life/Counter strike came out for instance. MMORPGs last leap was with Wow in 2004 and we need a new one about now.
  • rojoArcueidrojoArcueid Member EpicPosts: 10,722
    edited July 2017
    Elsabolts said:
    Adult snowflakes living in mommy and daddys basement, attending part time community college majoring for a PHD in give me.
    nothing wrong with community colleges. I'll jump of a bridge before drowning in debt at a 4 year university. I'll probably get a bachelor/master+ some day outside the US so i can afford it without owing 50k-100k.

    But yeah i agree the "snowflake" syndrome is real. It's been magnified since trump won too.




  • EldurianEldurian Member EpicPosts: 2,736
    That's the issue. People have this perception of what an MMO should be. It needs steep vertical progression, lots and lots of grinding, questing etc. etc. etc.

    MMO is a far simpler term and MMORPG is still pretty simple.

    An MMO simply means the game is massively multiplayer. Can hundreds or thousands of players inhabit the same world together? If yes, then it's an MMO.

    Can hundreds or thousands of players inhabit the same world together, and is there the ability to assume the role of a character you can customize to a role you want to play? If yes, then it's an MMORPG.

    That's really all there is to it. Anything else is just people's assumptions and biases. Those are the only criteria you need to an MMO and an MMORPG. People can say "If it doesn't have steep vertical progression then it isn't an MMO / MMORPG." But that's just their own lack of imagination talking. An MMO can be anything that satisfies those criteria I've given, and the possibility for variation within those criteria is nearly limitless.
    Brald_IronheartSteelhelm
  • Binny45Binny45 Member UncommonPosts: 522
    It is my personal opinion that MMO's are dying because they're bleaching out all the social aspects of the games. Without friendship, guilds, reputations being worth a damn, and actual activities that are not raid/fight related yet add value and depth, who would want to stick around after the fighting is done?

    Been playing several MMO's in the last year, and I can count on one hand how many times I've actually been able to have a conversation with someone for more than the duration of a group.  Give me back my EQ days anytime. Damn I miss those people.  The forums for our server (Ayo Ro) was an endless source of getting to know the people behind the characters and having fun online.  Have not come across such a situation to date and hoping that changes with Pantheon Rise of the Fallen.

    image

  • Brald_IronheartBrald_Ironheart Member UncommonPosts: 119
    edited July 2017
    @Eldurian - Yes, systems, mechanics, and progression methods are just means to an end.  They are not the end in and of themselves. 

    People first started playing role-playing games because they thought it would be fun to pretend to be something or someone else.  Or to experience life as someone else in a different world or a different time period.  (Or even an alternate earth such as one with superheroes or vampires.)  As long as we are doing that we are role-playing.  If we are doing that together with hundreds or thousands of people online, then we are playing a Massively Multi-player Online Role-Playing Game.
    Roleplayinn.com - New forum for people who love role-playing of all kinds - tabletop/pencil & paper, live-action, and role-playing in mmorpgs.
  • EldurianEldurian Member EpicPosts: 2,736
    Binny45 said:
    It is my personal opinion that MMO's are dying because they're bleaching out all the social aspects of the games. Without friendship, guilds, reputations being worth a damn, and actual activities that are not raid/fight related yet add value and depth, who would want to stick around after the fighting is done?

    Been playing several MMO's in the last year, and I can count on one hand how many times I've actually been able to have a conversation with someone for more than the duration of a group.  Give me back my EQ days anytime. Damn I miss those people.  The forums for our server (Ayo Ro) was an endless source of getting to know the people behind the characters and having fun online.  Have not come across such a situation to date and hoping that changes with Pantheon Rise of the Fallen.
    That's really a themepark problem IMO. Socialization is alive and well in sandboxes. The issue is when the next time you talk to that person there will likely be a ten level gap between, and there is no point doing content together anymore, a lot of the people you meet it's with the understanding you will likely only hang out once and then it's over.

    That kills socialization. Sandboxes tend to grow the gap more slowly and have more purpose in players of dissimilar levels / gear hanging out together. That creates more longterm relationships.
    Steelhelmzzax
  • EldurianEldurian Member EpicPosts: 2,736
    @Eldurian - Yes, systems, mechanics, and progression methods are just means to an end.  They are not the end in and of themselves. 

    People first started playing role-playing games because they thought it would be fun to pretend to be something or someone else.  Or to experience life as someone else in a different world or a different time period.  (Or even an alternate earth such as one with superheroes or vampires.)  As long as we are doing that we are role-playing.  If we are doing that together with hundreds or thousands of people online, then we are playing a Massively Multi-player Online Role-Playing Game.
    <sarcasm>

    Absolutely not. I you don't want your character to get 500% stronger for every two minutes you spend playing for the next 5000 years then you clearly don't like MMOs, and have no business playing MMORPGs. Also if you ever even think about a job, a social life, or even looking at a non-pixilated version of someone of the opposite gender you aren't allowed to play them.

    </sarcasm>
    Brald_Ironheart
  • Brald_IronheartBrald_Ironheart Member UncommonPosts: 119
    edited July 2017
    I did forget about the Game part.  For it to be a game it also probably needs to have a few rules and allow people to cooperate and/or compete with each other.  But we can make any kind of rules we want for a game, as long as everyone who plays agrees to abide by the rules.

    Definition of game

    1. 1a (1) :  activity engaged in for diversion or amusement


         3. a (1) :  a physical or mental competition conducted according to rules with the participants in direct opposition to each other

    - https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/game


    "a form of play or sport, especially a competitive one played according to rules and decided by skill, strength, or luck."





    Roleplayinn.com - New forum for people who love role-playing of all kinds - tabletop/pencil & paper, live-action, and role-playing in mmorpgs.
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