I agree,WAR if anything like DAoC will be hugely successful.A lot of WoWers have been watching it for a long time,especially those sick of WoWs PVP though its not to say WAR wont have nerfs/imbalances once its been out a while.Im likely to choose this,potbs or spellborn in 2008 as long as they dont all turn out to be...sh*t .
The same can be said of AoC,those who dont like WAR will go here.
anyway..
Spellborn looks great,but it depends on what it ends up like at release;will it be a niche game?will its innovation be the death of its gameplay and balance?will it recieve enough advertising so people actually know it exsists?
POTBS,plays like voyage century with all the bad parts taken out and some stunning graphics put in.I liked voyage century a lot,other than the fact it had an awful pointless pvp system,had some horrible grinds such as weapon skill up and no real point to its gameplay. Pirates removes all this and adds in a decent quest system and throws away the boring endgame routine seen in 80,00000 MMOS,replacing it with player run economics and fighting. Im 90% sure I could get potbs on release and enjoy and play it for a long time.Ill bet this is a success.
TR has good gameplay and ideas,but will it survive?hard to say,seems like no-one really knows or cares about its release.Check back in 6 months.Could be great,loving the whole fighting over outposts stuff and the general gameplay,but currently its very shallow and a bit dull.Im certainly not dissapointed I bought it,but I wouldnt pay a sub for it.
LOTRO,see above,after its first major expansion in 2008 it could continue its success or become a barren wasteland in the wake of the new releases.Check back in 6 months.
Vanguard will continue to plummet and retain a niche audience,cant see it ever reaching 100k.Who would choose this when you have games like potbs,AoC and spellborn freshly out?
If Conan is designed for 16 year old straights and the characters look like they fell head on into a lawn mower, then how can you be so unsure about it's success? What can match the awesome buying power of a straight teen with a lawnmower scar fetish?
BWHUAHAHA! Good reply, teheh. ^^
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Originally posted by Gameloading OP: I find your comment about Lucas Arts a bit weird. Lucas Arts is responsible for tons of SW games, they might not all be good games but they certainly understand the potential. Don't forget that a Kotor mmorpg is partly Bioware's decision, not just LA's.
This guy has a point. Lucasarts used to be about making original games but since the late 90s they've focused a lot more on making Starwars into a bigger franchise.
Still it would be better if Bioware used Mass Effect act their mmo because they spent a considerable amount of time fleshing out its details. It would be wasteful to never reuse all that background/historical knowledge they fabricated.
Not only is your estimation of Lucas arts is wrong but your estimation of Warhammer is wrong. There are a lot of people that like to play games where they bash their heads in. The fighting game genre was a dominant force in the early mid 90s because it catered well to this playstyle.
FPS games are another example that shows people like straight up action.
The issue here is that each of the three games that could appeal to such people have issues.
Warhammer is using the same autoattacking template that grates against the sensibilities of players who want to be in control of their actions. So even though warhammer has a ton of features for epic and small scale battles their combat system is a hinderance.
Age of conan will have rediculously high system requirements. Telling people they'll need a new computre to deal with framerate issues is pouring salt on the wound that is the subscription fee most MMOs have. FPS gamers are used to not paying a subscription fee. It would be easier to accept Conan if there wasn't a huge upfront cost implied.
Spellborn has a great combat system too bad the majority of pvp content is only allowed at the highest levels. Online gamers who don't play MMOs are used to just getting into a game room and start fighting each other. TCOS prevents you from jumping into that type of combat until level 40.
Each of these games have other flaws I could site but I'm not going to write a term paper.
Ok this is half fun, half serious. Partially analysis, hearsay, gut feeling and chuzpe. But its true, you'll see. WARHAMMER: I feel it will start with a huge, steep rise, like LOTRO did. But its limited content will quite surely prevent WAR from being a WOW killer. I see WAR more on a subscription level of 400k, which it will gain in the first 2 years and stay on this zenith. Its just too much oriented on PVP. I mean the PVP in WAR will rock, no doubt. But the number of players who really constantly want to rush rush rush are not THAT many IMO. The entire part of socializing, participating in quests like in a story and roleplaying are just figleaves in this game. As far as MMOs go, the average game peaks within 2 years. Unless they have a mass appeal in Asia, the western market is not large enough to sustain an MMO longer then that. I don't know what the sub base might be but it should be pretty good. I would "guess" 500k plus. How long that will last, who knows? The average MMO in the west seems to lose its thunder completely within 3 years. SPELLBORN: I hear rumor from friends who beta-test that the chances are this game will NEVER be published and just follow the like of Gods and Heroes. Even if its released, its a niche game for a very special audience. It has merely 2 playable races and the entire game has a VERY pecuilar look. Some may like it, but its FAR away from any graphical design ppl are used to. Plus, the entire design that you level up solely from quests will not attract big crowds either. I see it in the DDO-niche in terms of subscribers at best. My gut says average at best. Its main issue will be the fact its just another fantasy game to add to the pile. PIRATES OF THE BURNING SEA: I can say no details. It will not launch as a killer game many expect it atm, but a decend niche game of the level of City of Heroes, good for a small selected few, but never more than that. Thats feeling, yes. AGE OF CONAN: I am most unsure about this. It's a game designed for 16 year old straights, and I am neither. I guess they will love it, which may bring it a similar level like WAR. If only the characters would not look like they fell head on into a lawn-mower I might even try it. The landscape is breathtaking and it offers the most vast and rounded MMO experience of all the new and coming releases, so it *has* a chance. But as I said, I am most unsure about it. But the hype alone will catch enough players initially, so unless they totally bork it, it will be around the same 400-500k level of WAR. Conan is going to get handicapped by its technical requirements. Its not going to hit anything close to 400-500 for that reason alone. If it launches in a decent state, it might enjoy continued growth as the average gamer catches up over the years. Also, I wouldn't hold my breath over a good launch. They have one other MMO under their belt and that one was a frickin technical disaster for years. TABULA RASA: Sorry Lobo-san, but TR will be a WOW killer when hell freezes over. Its ok, has some good things, but its a 150-250k game at best, never more! Which is about average as far as MMOs go. Most MMO's never ever break 250k. LOTRO: They will expand their game and their player base in 2008, cracking the 500k mark and maybe get up to 1 or 2 millions over the next years, but it will never reach WOW marks. 1 to 2 million? Don't think so. So far Turbine has been very reluctant to release sub numbers, there has been zero server growth. LotR currently is all it will ever be. EDIT Here is your potential 1 to 2 million players. Its not, I repeat, not going to be here in the west. The western market already shot its load.
www.tentonhammer.com/node/14863 VANGUARD: Will find a certain re-animation when SOE finally makes with VG what the did with EQ2. They will loose most old time hardcore gamers but attract a good numer of new players. Eventually they reach EQ2 numers in a year or more. This game is such a non-issue its not even funny. Its not going to reach EQ2 numbers or any other numbers in the next year. If it continues on its present course of becoming more accessible, all they will accomplish is running off the few remaining players they have. It still has a boat load of issues and is far from being complete, in addition the dev team has been cut to the minimum. No MMO ever had any sort of "resurgence" Vanguard is dead and will remain so. It will be fortunate if it doesn't end up like the Matrix. Running but no one playing it. Vanguards only claim to fame in the next year will be its still running. BIOWARE MMO: Both Bioware and Lucasarts will confirm there will be no Star Wars MMO besides SWG anytime soon. I know, MUCH evidence hints to a possiblr KOTOR MMO, but my gut feeling says no. Lucasart is just too dumb to really realize the potential in Star Wars. They NEVER understood. My guess is the Bioware MMO will be an IP, but neither D&D nor Mass Effect. I guess its something else, or really something new. As I said, this is pure instinct, no logic. That is yet to be seen. How could Lucasart be "to dumb" to realize the potential of the IP they created? SW has generated more revenue then any other IP ever. Anyway, its anyones guess right now. WOW: There will be no WOW-killer at least until 2010. Sorry folks, but I feel this record was genuine and cant be repeated anytime soon. The next game to be a "WoW" killer will need to meet certain criteria similar to what Blizzard had before WoW launched. 1) A pre-existing player base numbering in the millions INTERNATIONALLY. 2) Cross market appeal in both East and West. WoW's continued growth is mainly in Asia, it peaked in the west years ago. You left out AION It might do average or better here in the west but in Asia, it might steal the show. I guess, like the rest, we will see. Its also going to suffer from high system requirements with that Crytech engine although it seems to scale pretty well to most systems.
Let's check in 12 months how right I was. Ok, remind us. I think you are way off on the numbers of the existing games like Vanguard and such. Whats launching, who knows. We do know that no MMO has ever recovered from a bad launch. No MMO has ever had a sudden resurgence. All MMOs either have sustained growth or peak and then maintain or begin a decline. Based on that... whats currently out there, is what it is. The only thing that would cause continued growth is open up new markets as the western market just isn't strong enough to support sustained growth of any MMO. I do see a strengthened push to the European market which IMHO, U.S. companies regularly under estimate demand.
Hm, I must say, good points all. The biggest point most ppl dont understand is that WOW made this skyrocketing numbers only because they were so successful in Asia and that GREAT numbers in the west means 400-500k. Besides in 2008 we will have MANY more MMOs out there to chose from than when WOW was new. I somehow see far too many sub-par MMOs who drain some ppl away from games.
The big reason WOW was such a success IMO was, you could do everything you needed several MMOs before. There are so many different things you can do, while other MMOs specialize on some aspects, like WAR on PVP. Sure, it has also PVE, but the focus of all those podcasts clearly show the heavy weight of PVP in that game. WOW has something for many different target audiences, kids, teens, adults, older ppl. They all play it, while other MMOs have a more narrow profile. Plus, Blizzard was VERY brutal in their "fn" philosphy, minimizing all parts which are non-fun, like downtimes, long ways, hard penalities. I still feel the big non-fun parts were one of the biggest reasons Vanguard never got out of the niche. I spoke to SO many EQ1 vets in my quite big guild, and all said, EQ1 was great but they dont want the same hardcore gaming anymore. If VG can catch new players? Hard to say. Maybe it IS doomed. It would be a loss, but I have seen SWG got new players now and is on the rise - which I *never* would have thought possible. But I admit tis more hope than reason.
Yep, we Europeans are often left in the rain in gaming. Pirates of the Burning Sea is such a case. SOE focussed on NA, and here in Euro-land we dont even get a preoder anywhere.
The big maybe with LOTRO is based on how and how fast they expand their game. I *hear* some say LOTRO is even in decline and failed in its own lofty goals only reaching about 200k as peak. I cant say whats true. I always felt the IP limited the possibilities. Middle Earth just hasnt the same vast, fancy scope of creatures and things a world of your free design can have, but still, LOTRO is a very good game and it CAN become the Number 2, if they play their cards right in the next half year.
The funny thing is, MMO companies always work on their games as if time didnt matter. I mean, look at Vanguard. Sure the changes are good, but FAR too slow! What they did in all the time now is far too little in this long time. In that way LOTRO seems to have a faster pace of changes and additions, which speaks well for it IMO.
Ah well, all very good replies. ^^
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Originally posted by Elikal First of - Do not expect to see a WOW killer. WOW was one time cultural phenomena.
Combination of great marketing, good design and weak competition. WOW picked up
people that are not really MMO players. They played/play WOW and after they quit , returned to
other games. I do not see non of announced games to reach WOW popularity- And since Hello Kitty online is still developed in secrecy, i do not expect to see 10 000 000
subscribers anytime soon
WARHAMMER: I feel it will start with a huge, steep rise, like LOTRO did. But its limited content will quite surely prevent WAR from being a WOW killer. I see WAR more on a subscription level of 400k, which it will gain in the first 2 years and stay on this zenith. Its just too much oriented on PVP. I mean the PVP in WAR will rock, no doubt. But the number of players who really constantly want to rush rush rush are not THAT many IMO. The entire part of socializing, participating in quests like in a story and roleplaying are just figleaves in this game. WAR will fail BIG TIME - mark my words. It is just to similar to EQ/WOW MMOs - People are sick
and tired of this type of games and they will be soon thing of past- Just as point and click adventures. or turn based rpg's. WAR will turn into a bore fest to quick - and its NWN/WOW looking graphic will not help. And as PVP - How will this click and wait game stand against FPS twitch MMOs .. not to good People do not need AOC with WOW graphic, they need something NEW SPELLBORN: I hear rumor from friends who beta-test that the chances are this game will NEVER be published and just follow the like of Gods and Heroes. Even if its released, its a niche game for a very special audience. It has merely 2 playable races and the entire game has a VERY pecuilar look. Some may like it, but its FAR away from any graphical design ppl are used to. Plus, the entire design that you level up solely from quests will not attract big crowds either. I see it in the DDO-niche in terms of subscribers at best. Hope they release , and wish them luck ...
PIRATES OF THE BURNING SEA: I can say no details. It will not launch as a killer game many expect it atm, but a decend niche game of the level of City of Heroes, good for a small selected few, but never more than that. Thats feeling, yes. Problem with PotBS is that it is aiming to please both hard core player and casual player - and it falls in middle - missing both groups. Very soon after launch SONY will attempt POTBS NGE to
make it more acceptable, this will alienate players and the game will sink
AGE OF CONAN: I am most unsure about this. It's a game designed for 16 year old straights, and I am neither. I guess they will love it, which may bring it a similar level like WAR. If only the characters would not look like they fell head on into a lawn-mower I might even try it. The landscape is breathtaking and it offers the most vast and rounded MMO experience of all the new and coming releases, so it *has* a chance. But as I said, I am most unsure about it. But the hype alone will catch enough players initially, so unless they totally bork it, it will be around the same 400-500k level of WAR. AOC will rise or fall by its combat system. If it will be good , game will be SUCCES. If it will be bad
the game will FAIL. Now they pulled the game back because combat system sucked. Can they turn
rotten apple into a good pie ?
Funcom really took risk with this game. They are doing something that is needed to be done
INNOVATION!
I am sceptical, but i really hope they succed.
TABULA RASA: Sorry Lobo-san, but TR will be a WOW killer when hell freezes over. Its ok, has some good things, but its a 150-250k game at best, never more! NC soft stepped on a gold mine. Their trust in Garriot payed off. The question is will they be able
to turn this mine into profitable buisness. With right CHANGES TR can become strong competitor on MMO market , not only now , but in years to come. Easily competing against WAR and AOC. LOTRO: They will expand their game and their player base in 2008, cracking the 500k mark and maybe get up to 1 or 2 millions over the next years, but it will never reach WOW marks. LOTRO will shrivel and die until end of 2008. TURBINE made a fantastic game - to bad it was based
on LOTR franchise. LOTRO is just to similar to WOW, but it is not WOW, so its not cool in school. Kudos to TURBINE though, and i am looking forward to their next game ! VANGUARD: Will find a certain re-animation when SOE finally makes with VG what the did with EQ2. They will loose most old time hardcore gamers but attract a good numer of new players. Eventually they reach EQ2 numers in a year or more. I feel that SOE might turn this around. If they fix the game , it might just be the OLD SCHOOL MMO FIX in years to come. Hope that happens BIOWARE MMO: Both Bioware and Lucasarts will confirm there will be no Star Wars MMO besides SWG anytime soon. I know, MUCH evidence hints to a possiblr KOTOR MMO, but my gut feeling says no. Lucasart is just too dumb to really realize the potential in Star Wars. They NEVER understood. My guess is the Bioware MMO will be an IP, but neither D&D nor Mass Effect. I guess its something else, or really something new. As I said, this is pure instinct, no logic. I tend to agree. I just do not see SW MMO happening. KOTOR is a horrible franchise for MMOs
it will simply not work. SWG fans will be disapointed because it will be everything they hated in NGE (everyone is Jedi) and other people will just not connect with it. Bioware IS cooking something AWSOME though. EA didnt cough 800 000 milion dollars FOR NOTHING!
WOW: There will be no WOW-kiler at least until 2010. Sorry folks, but I feel this record was genuine and cant be repeated anytime soon. WOW is dead. How long can you keep the fanbase ? Hell...even Britney Spears went bonkers Let's check in 12 months how right I was.
I agree. WAR will fail from lack of content from Mythic trying to cater to the only playerbase they will forseeably be able to keep. THE GEAR WHINERS!
If you think Mythic caters to gear whiners then you've obviously never played a mythic game. Old mythic used to be about the pvp. I'm not sure if that's still their top priority under EA management but I never felt they were catering exclusively to "gear whiners".
AGE OF CONAN: I am most unsure about this. It's a game designed for 16 year old straights, and I am neither.
You're homosexual?
I think that WAR will have much more subscribers than you think, somewhere in the 1-2 million range. There are a great many "old-timers" who are tired of the games out currently that would scramble to play a PvP game.
____________________
Have played: RuneScape, EQ2 (free trial), Last Chaos, Silk Road, Dungeon Runners. Currently playing: RuneScape, Dungeon Runners.
The notion that graphics, or anything else for that matter, are anywhere near as important as gameplay/fun is so utterly ridiculous that anyone who shares such a view should be placed in an asylum.
I think WAR will attract a lot of people who love PvP, lots of people have been waiting for a something that recaptures the feel of DAoC and this is probably the game with the most potential to do that. Don't underestimate the true PvP faction. I'm not talking about the WoW PvP faction I'm talking about those who apperciate skill and teamwork more than bragging rights and shiny gear. I predict a steady player base and only growing with time. Of course this all depends on Mythic sticking to their guns and not caving to investor pressure to make it more like WoW.
AoC - Will start off really well and may keep a good number of subscribers. But like you said (ok paraphrasing) it's going to attract a lot of the type of gamers that are a huge part of the reason I quit WoW. Once the novelty of tits and gore has worn off unless this has something really worthwhile to offer it's not going to keep a lot of the initial subscribers.
These are the only two games I really have an opinion on, but you're right it's doubtful anything will top WoW for subscriber numbers in the near future.
Edit: Actually I'd put my money on any Bioware MMO being set in the Mass Effect world now. They've laid the groundwork with the 360 game and have all the history and multiple races in place just ready to be taken online. It's the most likely candidate I'd say.
AGE OF CONAN: I am most unsure about this. It's a game designed for 16 year old straights, and I am neither.
You're homosexual?
I think that WAR will have much more subscribers than you think, somewhere in the 1-2 million range. There are a great many "old-timers" who are tired of the games out currently that would scramble to play a PvP game.
I am not gay I am festive! lol nono I am. (Homosexual sounds so... technical to me, heh. I was in gay/lesbian/bi/trans MMO guilds many years, some are the biggest guilds on their server.)
I am just teasing ppl a little about being straight, heh. I know some straights take it in the wrong tube, since I dont mean it that mean. But maybe it helps them a little to understand how we often feel, so out of teasing them I sometimes use the word "straight" like some silly kids say "this is so gay", saying "this is so boring like made from a straight". Silly, yeah yeah, but where was it written we have to be serious and somber all the time. ^^() Laughing is also a way to show teeth.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Originally posted by Elikal First of - Do not expect to see a WOW killer. WOW was one time cultural phenomena.
Combination of great marketing, good design and weak competition. WOW picked up
people that are not really MMO players. They played/play WOW and after they quit , returned to
other games. I do not see non of announced games to reach WOW popularity- And since Hello Kitty online is still developed in secrecy, i do not expect to see 10 000 000
subscribers anytime soon
WARHAMMER: I feel it will start with a huge, steep rise, like LOTRO did. But its limited content will quite surely prevent WAR from being a WOW killer. I see WAR more on a subscription level of 400k, which it will gain in the first 2 years and stay on this zenith. Its just too much oriented on PVP. I mean the PVP in WAR will rock, no doubt. But the number of players who really constantly want to rush rush rush are not THAT many IMO. The entire part of socializing, participating in quests like in a story and roleplaying are just figleaves in this game. WAR will fail BIG TIME - mark my words. It is just to similar to EQ/WOW MMOs - People are sick
and tired of this type of games and they will be soon thing of past- Just as point and click adventures. or turn based rpg's. WAR will turn into a bore fest to quick - and its NWN/WOW looking graphic will not help. And as PVP - How will this click and wait game stand against FPS twitch MMOs .. not to good People do not need AOC with WOW graphic, they need something NEW SPELLBORN: I hear rumor from friends who beta-test that the chances are this game will NEVER be published and just follow the like of Gods and Heroes. Even if its released, its a niche game for a very special audience. It has merely 2 playable races and the entire game has a VERY pecuilar look. Some may like it, but its FAR away from any graphical design ppl are used to. Plus, the entire design that you level up solely from quests will not attract big crowds either. I see it in the DDO-niche in terms of subscribers at best. Hope they release , and wish them luck ...
PIRATES OF THE BURNING SEA: I can say no details. It will not launch as a killer game many expect it atm, but a decend niche game of the level of City of Heroes, good for a small selected few, but never more than that. Thats feeling, yes. Problem with PotBS is that it is aiming to please both hard core player and casual player - and it falls in middle - missing both groups. Very soon after launch SONY will attempt POTBS NGE to
make it more acceptable, this will alienate players and the game will sink
AGE OF CONAN: I am most unsure about this. It's a game designed for 16 year old straights, and I am neither. I guess they will love it, which may bring it a similar level like WAR. If only the characters would not look like they fell head on into a lawn-mower I might even try it. The landscape is breathtaking and it offers the most vast and rounded MMO experience of all the new and coming releases, so it *has* a chance. But as I said, I am most unsure about it. But the hype alone will catch enough players initially, so unless they totally bork it, it will be around the same 400-500k level of WAR. AOC will rise or fall by its combat system. If it will be good , game will be SUCCES. If it will be bad
the game will FAIL. Now they pulled the game back because combat system sucked. Can they turn
rotten apple into a good pie ?
Funcom really took risk with this game. They are doing something that is needed to be done
INNOVATION!
I am sceptical, but i really hope they succed.
TABULA RASA: Sorry Lobo-san, but TR will be a WOW killer when hell freezes over. Its ok, has some good things, but its a 150-250k game at best, never more! NC soft stepped on a gold mine. Their trust in Garriot payed off. The question is will they be able
to turn this mine into profitable buisness. With right CHANGES TR can become strong competitor on MMO market , not only now , but in years to come. Easily competing against WAR and AOC. LOTRO: They will expand their game and their player base in 2008, cracking the 500k mark and maybe get up to 1 or 2 millions over the next years, but it will never reach WOW marks. LOTRO will shrivel and die until end of 2008. TURBINE made a fantastic game - to bad it was based
on LOTR franchise. LOTRO is just to similar to WOW, but it is not WOW, so its not cool in school. Kudos to TURBINE though, and i am looking forward to their next game ! VANGUARD: Will find a certain re-animation when SOE finally makes with VG what the did with EQ2. They will loose most old time hardcore gamers but attract a good numer of new players. Eventually they reach EQ2 numers in a year or more. I feel that SOE might turn this around. If they fix the game , it might just be the OLD SCHOOL MMO FIX in years to come. Hope that happens BIOWARE MMO: Both Bioware and Lucasarts will confirm there will be no Star Wars MMO besides SWG anytime soon. I know, MUCH evidence hints to a possiblr KOTOR MMO, but my gut feeling says no. Lucasart is just too dumb to really realize the potential in Star Wars. They NEVER understood. My guess is the Bioware MMO will be an IP, but neither D&D nor Mass Effect. I guess its something else, or really something new. As I said, this is pure instinct, no logic. I tend to agree. I just do not see SW MMO happening. KOTOR is a horrible franchise for MMOs
it will simply not work. SWG fans will be disapointed because it will be everything they hated in NGE (everyone is Jedi) and other people will just not connect with it. Bioware IS cooking something AWSOME though. EA didnt cough 800 000 milion dollars FOR NOTHING!
WOW: There will be no WOW-kiler at least until 2010. Sorry folks, but I feel this record was genuine and cant be repeated anytime soon. WOW is dead. How long can you keep the fanbase ? Hell...even Britney Spears went bonkers Let's check in 12 months how right I was.
Wow you are quite a sceptic! But its possible, I admit. I too have my big doubts some times. Often I feel we are not gonna see any really big killer game anytime soon. We faced so many dissappointments in the last 2 years. I mean, I feel it is symptomatic that a game like LOTRO, which has no innovation whatsoever is so hyped. I hear it is in decline here often. I cant judge, since I left the game because it just was too less complex for my Veteran tastes. Stil, I dont feel it doomed atm, but one never knows. Companies keep us in secret about things, naturally.
Still I dont see things that dark as you do, but its interesting enough to speculate.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Just look at Vanguard and how it brought back ol' EQ days.Week after the launch people realised that they do not want EQ , they want something new.
I Played EQ and WoW: I do Not Like WoW
I think that is entirely untrue. Speaking for myself and dozens of others with whom I speak with daily from games I have met including but not limited to EQ 1 to WoW... we want EQ 1. In fact, we do not want WoW.
WoW Ain't EQ; LotR is Like WoW (and that is its Failure)
WoW is not, and never will be, EQ 1. However, that is not what is at issue. LotR is like WoW, and despite a flawless release and appealing graphics, people want 1) world immersion, 2) non-linear gameplay, 3) varied content, 4) a story that is not static, 5) better class system, and 6) inter alia.
Why People Quit Vanguard: 1) Release & 2) Performance
Instead, what is at issue is why people quit Vanguard: 1) performance, 2) incompleteness, 3) missing features such as a) sophisticated character customization, b) fun things such as fishing, and c) raiding.
----- WoW and fast food = commercial successes. I neither play WoW nor eat fast food.
And for all those that say WAR will be good because it will bring back the DAOC days Just look at Vanguard and how it brought back ol' EQ days.Week after the launch people realised that they do not want EQ , they want something new.
That was really down to Vanguard being an unplayable mess and a bug ridden launch. Apart from the bugs it was actually a pretty solid game. I know a lot of people really liked it but quit playing because it was too much of a system hog. The world itself and the classes were good and there was a lot to do, it was just badly executed.
Also there hasn't been a great PvP game since DAoC - if you discount EVE which is too freeform to appeal to the majority of gamers.Almost every game now has it tacked on as an extra and they suffer as a result. A lot of serious PvP guilds want a game that makes it worthwhile.
People often say that LOTRO brought no innovation to MMO genre , but this is very far away from the truth. LOTRO brought so many innovations (or should i say perfected good points of many other games combined) , and all of them on verge of excelence. 1. QUEST BASED XP (instead of grind based) - done in WoW and Guild Wars before it 2. MONSTER PvP - Agreed, something new 3. STORYLINE QUESTS - Done in Final Fantasy XI and GW, nothing new 4. NPC play - agreed 5. AWESOME GRAPHIC THAT WORKS ON YOUR GRANDMA PC - done before with WoW, GW and EQ2. 6. TITLES AND ACHIEVEMENTS - has been done before (can't remember the name of the MMO at this moment) 7. ROLEPLAY - done in just about every MMORPG before it.
People often say that LOTRO brought no innovation to MMO genre , but this is very far away from the truth. ... But , if this game is so perfect - than why is it FAILING ???
Because no mater how good it is , people are bored of EQ/WOW style of MMOs
And this is exactly why WAR is DOOMED to FAIL
LOTRO failed because it was too simplistic
No real PVP system
The crafting was too simplistic
Not a lot of classes , races.
Not enough cool skills to take
Fighting animations were terrible
Unispired landscape. Just lots of ruins.
Too much instanced stuff.
It was just a poorly made game, all around. Thats why it failed.
Warhammer: Great game, I won't explain why it is great, that would take too long.
Warhammer online: Trying to take advantage of the greatness of Warhammer, but will fall only a few months after release.
Spellborn: Nice concept, but some big mistakes. It will get launched, will remain p2p for 6 months. Then it'll go f2p for a few years, when they finally get rid of it.
PotBS: Probably won't be bad, 400-500k players, but people prefer the fantasy or sci-fi setting, instead of pirates....
AoC: This game is doomed... The siege wars will most likely be massive orgies....
TR: Not a WoW-killer, but is a stayer for quite a while....
LotRO: Won't last that much longer, just isn't anything original. Same problem was WAR is going to have, trying to take advantage from something popular, and forgetting all about the gameplay.
VG: Like you said, it'll have a massive comeback. I'm starting to think that's a SOE business strategy ^^
Bioware MMO: Still hoping it'll be a new SW MMO, but I doubt it....
WoW: Will loose a lot of players, because people are getting bored of it. But will gain even more players because their friends play it.
And don't forget Guild Wars! Which will fall soon too probably, Anet is expecting us to play the same game, without any new content added, till mid 2009.... Big mistake
You know it, the best way to realize your dreams is waking up and start moving, never lose hope and always keep up.
Heh, fun to see that so many seem to predict the fall or fail or the big, hyped MMOs, like Conan, WAR or LOTRO. Ok, we all love a bit doomsaying, myself included. But then, some games have been pretty resilient against doom and failure, like SWG which has gained more subscribers recently, shows.
In constant movement the future is.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
LOTRO brought so many innovations (or should i say perfected good points of many other games combined) , and all of them on verge of excelence. 4. NPC play
I don't think any of these games will fail. They will each carve themselves a steady playerbase. I think the only thing that will upset people is the talk of this open PvP in some of the games, I think the developers will quickly change them after release because people will change their opinion on how the PvP was implemented. I predict we will see a lot of people crying about how the PvP should be changed soon after release...
Don't be terrorized! You're more likely to die of a car accident, drowning, fire, or murder! More people die every year from prescription drugs than terrorism LOL!
People often say that LOTRO brought no innovation to MMO genre , but this is very far away from the truth. LOTRO brought so many innovations (or should i say perfected good points of many other games combined) , and all of them on verge of excelence. 1. QUEST BASED XP (instead of grind based) 2. MONSTER PvP 3. STORYLINE QUESTS 4. NPC play 5. AWESOME GRAPHIC THAT WORKS ON YOUR GRANDMA PC 6. TITLES AND ACHIEVEMENTS 7. ROLEPLAY
... But , if this game is so perfect - than why is it FAILING ???
Because no mater how good it is , people are bored of EQ/WOW style of MMOs
And this is exactly why WAR is DOOMED to FAIL
And for all those that say WAR will be good because it will bring back the DAOC days Just look at Vanguard and how it brought back ol' EQ days.Week after the launch people realised that they do not want EQ , they want something new.
The clock doesnt turn backwards
Personally, I don't think WAR is going to be a "great" MMO, but I do think it will be BIG. It just has that "mass appeal" type of look to it, in addition to being a PvP game at a time when there aren't many PvP games out there.
Am I going to play WAR? I doubt it. But, I do feel like the game is going to be very polished and very hyped. I do agree though, that MMO fans are getting sick of playing the same old game, so I'd say that WAR being a PvP is their one saving grace here.
WOW - Noone is going to kill WOW except WOW itself. Releasing another mmo will just hurt Blizzard in my opinion. With so called 9mill subs , I doubt anything Blizzard releases will even come close to WOW's success which in turn will be a failure. Blizzard totally fails on giving their gamers what they want such as balanced classes, better gameplay and better things to do.
AOC,Warhammer - Both majroly overhyped. Both keep on pushing back their release dates failing to make their deadlines. AOC - Funcom had to revamp their comabt system because testers didn't like it. I am not sure it takes an additional 5-6 months to fix it but it just makes you wonder whatelse is broken that we aren't aware of. Also DX10 will be a huge mistake for this game. Dx10 is simply not ready for primetime. Warhammer - Wether you want to call it a wow clone or not, the game simply does not have that wow factor in making people say " heck yeah I want to play this game! "
Bioware MMO - Who knows what is going to happen. To be continued!
Spellborn - Just add it to the pile of fantasy games.
Tabula Rasa - Lots fo action but seriously lacks depth and not even worth 15 dollars a month to play.
Games to look out for....
Aion - Might be the best mmo out of all the overhyped ones. Keep your eyes open for more good things from Aion.
Guild Wars 2 - Not enough info to specualte anything but if Anet does it right with no monthly fee this could be a biggie.
My impression is the business strategy is to keep people PvPing as opposed to raiding. Yes. Gameplay needs to change.
People want 1) world immersion, 2) sophisticated character customization, and 3) deep Questing.
Instead, we are getting raiding, PvPing, and repetitive "end-games." Whether a strategy with a focus on PvP works is yet to be seen. I play MMORPGs to PvE; I play FPS to PvP.
----- WoW and fast food = commercial successes. I neither play WoW nor eat fast food.
Good post Elikal. For the most part I agree with your predictions but I think you are being very generous with subscription numbers. Remember that 100k population is a successful game regardless of what WoW has achieved. WoW is an freak of nature and will never been accomplished again even by Blizzard. I want to give some slight adjustments to your estimates:
WAR
Due to the extreme hype for this game it will take off like a rocket and settle in around 100-150k subs.
Spellborn:
It is not made in the US therefore it will not be a huge success. If they launch I would say 50k is the max. Plus using the Unreal Engine for a MMO has been proven to not be a good move.
PoTBS
Very niche game. 25k - 50k subs.
Age of Conan:
Big winner in 2008. Agree with your prediction completely.
Tabula Rasa
The next Auto Assault. I predict a shutdown in about two years.
LOTRO
Good solid game. Newby friendly and of course a great IP. It will maintain 150k-250k subs.
Vanguard
It is the living dead. Not alive, but not dead. It is however the only true old school MMO with complete freedom of movement, good graphics, Player boats, flying mounts, etc so it might actually find a good niche like Eve. Very hard to tell on this one. It has a very small dev team so I am not sure they can make much progress. Plus, it is very boring and not fun.
Bioware MMO
Vaporware. Like Darkfall. Not gonna happen.
WoW
Will get bigger and bigger. No stopping it. Easy system requirements, fun, bug-proof, great population, solid value.
I have a few extra predictions I want to make:
Fury
Shutdown in 2008 or they give the code to the few hardcore fans it has so they can run it independently.
Guild Wars
Will get bigger and bigger. Guild Wars 2 will be very successful also.
Eve Online
Will get bigger and bigger for the hardcore. Great new stuff coming for Eve.
Everquest2
Business as usual. No changes plus or minus.
Everquest1
Finally shutdown after a long, legendary run.
Star Trek Online
The folks who tried to do Gods and Heroes. Need I say more? Complete failure. Shame for such a great IP to be in their hands.
Comments
I agree,WAR if anything like DAoC will be hugely successful.A lot of WoWers have been watching it for a long time,especially those sick of WoWs PVP though its not to say WAR wont have nerfs/imbalances once its been out a while.Im likely to choose this,potbs or spellborn in 2008 as long as they dont all turn out to be...sh*t
.
The same can be said of AoC,those who dont like WAR will go here.
anyway..
Spellborn looks great,but it depends on what it ends up like at release;will it be a niche game?will its innovation be the death of its gameplay and balance?will it recieve enough advertising so people actually know it exsists?
POTBS,plays like voyage century with all the bad parts taken out and some stunning graphics put in.I liked voyage century a lot,other than the fact it had an awful pointless pvp system,had some horrible grinds such as weapon skill up and no real point to its gameplay. Pirates removes all this and adds in a decent quest system and throws away the boring endgame routine seen in 80,00000 MMOS,replacing it with player run economics and fighting. Im 90% sure I could get potbs on release and enjoy and play it for a long time.Ill bet this is a success.
TR has good gameplay and ideas,but will it survive?hard to say,seems like no-one really knows or cares about its release.Check back in 6 months.Could be great,loving the whole fighting over outposts stuff and the general gameplay,but currently its very shallow and a bit dull.Im certainly not dissapointed I bought it,but I wouldnt pay a sub for it.
LOTRO,see above,after its first major expansion in 2008 it could continue its success or become a barren wasteland in the wake of the new releases.Check back in 6 months.
Vanguard will continue to plummet and retain a niche audience,cant see it ever reaching 100k.Who would choose this when you have games like potbs,AoC and spellborn freshly out?
BWHUAHAHA!
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
This guy has a point. Lucasarts used to be about making original games but since the late 90s they've focused a lot more on making Starwars into a bigger franchise.
Still it would be better if Bioware used Mass Effect act their mmo because they spent a considerable amount of time fleshing out its details. It would be wasteful to never reuse all that background/historical knowledge they fabricated.
Not only is your estimation of Lucas arts is wrong but your estimation of Warhammer is wrong. There are a lot of people that like to play games where they bash their heads in. The fighting game genre was a dominant force in the early mid 90s because it catered well to this playstyle.
FPS games are another example that shows people like straight up action.
The issue here is that each of the three games that could appeal to such people have issues.
Warhammer is using the same autoattacking template that grates against the sensibilities of players who want to be in control of their actions. So even though warhammer has a ton of features for epic and small scale battles their combat system is a hinderance.
Age of conan will have rediculously high system requirements. Telling people they'll need a new computre to deal with framerate issues is pouring salt on the wound that is the subscription fee most MMOs have. FPS gamers are used to not paying a subscription fee. It would be easier to accept Conan if there wasn't a huge upfront cost implied.
Spellborn has a great combat system too bad the majority of pvp content is only allowed at the highest levels. Online gamers who don't play MMOs are used to just getting into a game room and start fighting each other. TCOS prevents you from jumping into that type of combat until level 40.
Each of these games have other flaws I could site but I'm not going to write a term paper.
Hm, I must say, good points all. The biggest point most ppl dont understand is that WOW made this skyrocketing numbers only because they were so successful in Asia and that GREAT numbers in the west means 400-500k. Besides in 2008 we will have MANY more MMOs out there to chose from than when WOW was new. I somehow see far too many sub-par MMOs who drain some ppl away from games.
The big reason WOW was such a success IMO was, you could do everything you needed several MMOs before. There are so many different things you can do, while other MMOs specialize on some aspects, like WAR on PVP. Sure, it has also PVE, but the focus of all those podcasts clearly show the heavy weight of PVP in that game. WOW has something for many different target audiences, kids, teens, adults, older ppl. They all play it, while other MMOs have a more narrow profile. Plus, Blizzard was VERY brutal in their "fn" philosphy, minimizing all parts which are non-fun, like downtimes, long ways, hard penalities. I still feel the big non-fun parts were one of the biggest reasons Vanguard never got out of the niche. I spoke to SO many EQ1 vets in my quite big guild, and all said, EQ1 was great but they dont want the same hardcore gaming anymore. If VG can catch new players? Hard to say. Maybe it IS doomed. It would be a loss, but I have seen SWG got new players now and is on the rise - which I *never* would have thought possible. But I admit tis more hope than reason.
Yep, we Europeans are often left in the rain in gaming. Pirates of the Burning Sea is such a case. SOE focussed on NA, and here in Euro-land we dont even get a preoder anywhere.
The big maybe with LOTRO is based on how and how fast they expand their game. I *hear* some say LOTRO is even in decline and failed in its own lofty goals only reaching about 200k as peak. I cant say whats true. I always felt the IP limited the possibilities. Middle Earth just hasnt the same vast, fancy scope of creatures and things a world of your free design can have, but still, LOTRO is a very good game and it CAN become the Number 2, if they play their cards right in the next half year.
The funny thing is, MMO companies always work on their games as if time didnt matter. I mean, look at Vanguard. Sure the changes are good, but FAR too slow! What they did in all the time now is far too little in this long time. In that way LOTRO seems to have a faster pace of changes and additions, which speaks well for it IMO.
Ah well, all very good replies. ^^
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
If you think Mythic caters to gear whiners then you've obviously never played a mythic game. Old mythic used to be about the pvp. I'm not sure if that's still their top priority under EA management but I never felt they were catering exclusively to "gear whiners".
"bookmarked"
Thanks for the tip
I think that WAR will have much more subscribers than you think, somewhere in the 1-2 million range. There are a great many "old-timers" who are tired of the games out currently that would scramble to play a PvP game.
____________________
Have played: RuneScape, EQ2 (free trial), Last Chaos, Silk Road, Dungeon Runners.
Currently playing: RuneScape, Dungeon Runners.
The notion that graphics, or anything else for that matter, are anywhere near as important as gameplay/fun is so utterly ridiculous that anyone who shares such a view should be placed in an asylum.
I completely disagree.
I think WAR will attract a lot of people who love PvP, lots of people have been waiting for a something that recaptures the feel of DAoC and this is probably the game with the most potential to do that. Don't underestimate the true PvP faction. I'm not talking about the WoW PvP faction I'm talking about those who apperciate skill and teamwork more than bragging rights and shiny gear. I predict a steady player base and only growing with time. Of course this all depends on Mythic sticking to their guns and not caving to investor pressure to make it more like WoW.
AoC - Will start off really well and may keep a good number of subscribers. But like you said (ok paraphrasing) it's going to attract a lot of the type of gamers that are a huge part of the reason I quit WoW. Once the novelty of tits and gore has worn off unless this has something really worthwhile to offer it's not going to keep a lot of the initial subscribers.
These are the only two games I really have an opinion on, but you're right it's doubtful anything will top WoW for subscriber numbers in the near future.
Edit: Actually I'd put my money on any Bioware MMO being set in the Mass Effect world now. They've laid the groundwork with the 360 game and have all the history and multiple races in place just ready to be taken online. It's the most likely candidate I'd say.
______________________________
WAR is coming. Look busy.
I think that WAR will have much more subscribers than you think, somewhere in the 1-2 million range. There are a great many "old-timers" who are tired of the games out currently that would scramble to play a PvP game.
I am not gay I am festive!
I am just teasing ppl a little about being straight, heh. I know some straights take it in the wrong tube, since I dont mean it that mean. But maybe it helps them a little to understand how we often feel, so out of teasing them I sometimes use the word "straight" like some silly kids say "this is so gay", saying "this is so boring like made from a straight". Silly, yeah yeah, but where was it written we have to be serious and somber all the time. ^^() Laughing is also a way to show teeth.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Wow you are quite a sceptic! But its possible, I admit. I too have my big doubts some times. Often I feel we are not gonna see any really big killer game anytime soon. We faced so many dissappointments in the last 2 years. I mean, I feel it is symptomatic that a game like LOTRO, which has no innovation whatsoever is so hyped. I hear it is in decline here often. I cant judge, since I left the game because it just was too less complex for my Veteran tastes. Stil, I dont feel it doomed atm, but one never knows. Companies keep us in secret about things, naturally.
Still I dont see things that dark as you do, but its interesting enough to speculate.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
People often say that LOTRO brought no innovation to MMO genre , but this is very far away from the truth.
LOTRO brought so many innovations (or should i say perfected good points of many other games combined) , and all of them on verge of excelence.
1. QUEST BASED XP (instead of grind based)
2. MONSTER PvP
3. STORYLINE QUESTS
4. NPC play
5. AWESOME GRAPHIC THAT WORKS ON YOUR GRANDMA PC
6. TITLES AND ACHIEVEMENTS
7. ROLEPLAY
... But , if this game is so perfect - than why is it FAILING ???
Because no mater how good it is , people are bored of EQ/WOW style of MMOs
And this is exactly why WAR is DOOMED to FAIL
And for all those that say WAR will be good because it will bring back the DAOC days
Just look at Vanguard and how it brought back ol' EQ days.Week after the launch people realised that they do not want EQ , they want something new.
The clock doesnt turn backwards
I Played EQ and WoW: I do Not Like WoW
I think that is entirely untrue. Speaking for myself and dozens of others with whom I speak with daily from games I have met including but not limited to EQ 1 to WoW... we want EQ 1. In fact, we do not want WoW.
WoW Ain't EQ; LotR is Like WoW (and that is its Failure)
WoW is not, and never will be, EQ 1. However, that is not what is at issue. LotR is like WoW, and despite a flawless release and appealing graphics, people want 1) world immersion, 2) non-linear gameplay, 3) varied content, 4) a story that is not static, 5) better class system, and 6) inter alia.
Why People Quit Vanguard: 1) Release & 2) Performance
Instead, what is at issue is why people quit Vanguard: 1) performance, 2) incompleteness, 3) missing features such as a) sophisticated character customization, b) fun things such as fishing, and c) raiding.
-----
WoW and fast food = commercial successes.
I neither play WoW nor eat fast food.
That was really down to Vanguard being an unplayable mess and a bug ridden launch. Apart from the bugs it was actually a pretty solid game. I know a lot of people really liked it but quit playing because it was too much of a system hog. The world itself and the classes were good and there was a lot to do, it was just badly executed.
Also there hasn't been a great PvP game since DAoC - if you discount EVE which is too freeform to appeal to the majority of gamers.Almost every game now has it tacked on as an extra and they suffer as a result. A lot of serious PvP guilds want a game that makes it worthwhile.
______________________________
WAR is coming. Look busy.
No real PVP system
The crafting was too simplistic
Not a lot of classes , races.
Not enough cool skills to take
Fighting animations were terrible
Unispired landscape. Just lots of ruins.
Too much instanced stuff.
It was just a poorly made game, all around. Thats why it failed.
You're probably right about everything...
Warhammer: Great game, I won't explain why it is great, that would take too long.
Warhammer online: Trying to take advantage of the greatness of Warhammer, but will fall only a few months after release.
Spellborn: Nice concept, but some big mistakes. It will get launched, will remain p2p for 6 months. Then it'll go f2p for a few years, when they finally get rid of it.
PotBS: Probably won't be bad, 400-500k players, but people prefer the fantasy or sci-fi setting, instead of pirates....
AoC: This game is doomed... The siege wars will most likely be massive orgies....
TR: Not a WoW-killer, but is a stayer for quite a while....
LotRO: Won't last that much longer, just isn't anything original. Same problem was WAR is going to have, trying to take advantage from something popular, and forgetting all about the gameplay.
VG: Like you said, it'll have a massive comeback. I'm starting to think that's a SOE business strategy ^^
Bioware MMO: Still hoping it'll be a new SW MMO, but I doubt it....
WoW: Will loose a lot of players, because people are getting bored of it. But will gain even more players because their friends play it.
And don't forget Guild Wars! Which will fall soon too probably, Anet is expecting us to play the same game, without any new content added, till mid 2009.... Big mistake
You know it, the best way to realize your dreams is waking up and start moving, never lose hope and always keep up.
Heh, fun to see that so many seem to predict the fall or fail or the big, hyped MMOs, like Conan, WAR or LOTRO. Ok, we all love a bit doomsaying, myself included. But then, some games have been pretty resilient against doom and failure, like SWG which has gained more subscribers recently, shows.
In constant movement the future is.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
What the hell is NPC play?
I don't think any of these games will fail. They will each carve themselves a steady playerbase. I think the only thing that will upset people is the talk of this open PvP in some of the games, I think the developers will quickly change them after release because people will change their opinion on how the PvP was implemented. I predict we will see a lot of people crying about how the PvP should be changed soon after release...
Don't be terrorized! You're more likely to die of a car accident, drowning, fire, or murder! More people die every year from prescription drugs than terrorism LOL!
Am I going to play WAR? I doubt it. But, I do feel like the game is going to be very polished and very hyped. I do agree though, that MMO fans are getting sick of playing the same old game, so I'd say that WAR being a PvP is their one saving grace here.
WOW - Noone is going to kill WOW except WOW itself. Releasing another mmo will just hurt Blizzard in my opinion. With so called 9mill subs , I doubt anything Blizzard releases will even come close to WOW's success which in turn will be a failure. Blizzard totally fails on giving their gamers what they want such as balanced classes, better gameplay and better things to do.
AOC,Warhammer - Both majroly overhyped. Both keep on pushing back their release dates failing to make their deadlines. AOC - Funcom had to revamp their comabt system because testers didn't like it. I am not sure it takes an additional 5-6 months to fix it but it just makes you wonder whatelse is broken that we aren't aware of. Also DX10 will be a huge mistake for this game. Dx10 is simply not ready for primetime. Warhammer - Wether you want to call it a wow clone or not, the game simply does not have that wow factor in making people say " heck yeah I want to play this game! "
Bioware MMO - Who knows what is going to happen. To be continued!
Spellborn - Just add it to the pile of fantasy games.
Tabula Rasa - Lots fo action but seriously lacks depth and not even worth 15 dollars a month to play.
Games to look out for....
Aion - Might be the best mmo out of all the overhyped ones. Keep your eyes open for more good things from Aion.
Guild Wars 2 - Not enough info to specualte anything but if Anet does it right with no monthly fee this could be a biggie.
Face it people
How much more can you see the same old chewed up formula
Skill bar on the bottom, target enemy, click, wait for skill refresh , click again ... and so on and so on
This is OVER....
Sure people will play WAR. I sure will.
But people will get bored so fast. Because you will feel you did it all before..in EQ, in WOW ... in DAOC
The gameplay has to change.
My impression is the business strategy is to keep people PvPing as opposed to raiding. Yes. Gameplay needs to change.
People want 1) world immersion, 2) sophisticated character customization, and 3) deep Questing.
Instead, we are getting raiding, PvPing, and repetitive "end-games." Whether a strategy with a focus on PvP works is yet to be seen. I play MMORPGs to PvE; I play FPS to PvP.
-----
WoW and fast food = commercial successes.
I neither play WoW nor eat fast food.
Good post Elikal. For the most part I agree with your predictions but I think you are being very generous with subscription numbers. Remember that 100k population is a successful game regardless of what WoW has achieved. WoW is an freak of nature and will never been accomplished again even by Blizzard. I want to give some slight adjustments to your estimates:
WAR
Due to the extreme hype for this game it will take off like a rocket and settle in around 100-150k subs.
Spellborn:
It is not made in the US therefore it will not be a huge success. If they launch I would say 50k is the max. Plus using the Unreal Engine for a MMO has been proven to not be a good move.
PoTBS
Very niche game. 25k - 50k subs.
Age of Conan:
Big winner in 2008. Agree with your prediction completely.
Tabula Rasa
The next Auto Assault. I predict a shutdown in about two years.
LOTRO
Good solid game. Newby friendly and of course a great IP. It will maintain 150k-250k subs.
Vanguard
It is the living dead. Not alive, but not dead. It is however the only true old school MMO with complete freedom of movement, good graphics, Player boats, flying mounts, etc so it might actually find a good niche like Eve. Very hard to tell on this one. It has a very small dev team so I am not sure they can make much progress. Plus, it is very boring and not fun.
Bioware MMO
Vaporware. Like Darkfall. Not gonna happen.
WoW
Will get bigger and bigger. No stopping it. Easy system requirements, fun, bug-proof, great population, solid value.
I have a few extra predictions I want to make:
Fury
Shutdown in 2008 or they give the code to the few hardcore fans it has so they can run it independently.
Guild Wars
Will get bigger and bigger. Guild Wars 2 will be very successful also.
Eve Online
Will get bigger and bigger for the hardcore. Great new stuff coming for Eve.
Everquest2
Business as usual. No changes plus or minus.
Everquest1
Finally shutdown after a long, legendary run.
Star Trek Online
The folks who tried to do Gods and Heroes. Need I say more? Complete failure. Shame for such a great IP to be in their hands.
Aion
Possible sleeper that may be a success.
Huxley
Not made in the US so failure on the horizon.