so the game is selling for less than the monthly fee (no really that IS a bad sign) and as of last week (when i actually bought and played TR for the first time since the scary closed beta) it seems people only play it to gripe about it. there was 0 gold selling (theres no reason for it!), people were recruiting for pvp guilds (to call it a mockery is to defame mockery itself), and apparently they STILL have not fixed bugs from the beta!! the crafting system is not only stupid but you have to have a clone dedicated to it and it would consume more time than it would take to get a character to level 50 (cap) for slight advantages.
what struck me the hardest was when i reloaded my shotgun there was an animation and a sound effect, unfortunately the sound was just there for show, because if you swapped weps right after the sound ended (you know using a sense other than sight to play) it would cycle to the next wep and you would negate the reloading you just did. second was the enemies still being able to shoot part way around corners. third is the fact that at this stage in "development" they are nerfing the graphics engine (yea you read that right the game looks worse now than it did in closed beta, fogging starts @ 70m now when it was 100m then)
it being in the 10$ bin is a sign, unlike getting a free copy of wow when i bought two worlds from amazon for 10$ (2 POS for the price of 1). im thinking what they have done is left a skeleton crew to develop TR while sinking all the talent into aion (if you havent played some places in TR look EXACTLY like aion). they hurt their rep by having yet another failing game on their list, which is only made worse by the fact that they plainly dont support their own products.
i think dungeon runners has more subs than TR at this point (looking forward to the boxed version actually because the boxes look so nice all lined up row after row). i was REALLY hoping that 7 months would be enough time for them to fix all the scary/ugly things i remember so well from CB, but alas no. one week of hard core play to hit cap and then there is NOTHING to do with that character, and the hardest part of doing that was enduring quest chains that break WHILE inside an instance, character storage mysteriously vanishing and reappearing, and the constant stream of gripes that scroll by in the top left corner of the screen.
Ok, so go ahead now and explain how it is different than you getting a free copy of WoW. Technically, you can get a disc of WoW for 1.99 at the local Gamestop, regardless of the fact that it is a "trial" it is still the full game, minus expansion.
And again, with the quoting of numbers. How do you know that Dungeon Runners has more players? At least quote your sources.
Posts like that are the ones that reaffirm to me that the Internet is so full of BS theories and estimations that if you believe any of it without doing your homework you are either:
a) A child.
b) Lazy as hell.
I would love it if I had the magic powers of make-believe!
Again, to sum up: the "bin" at your local game store or wal mart has nothing to do with success or failure. It has a good deal to do with region, and how many copies sold at THAT PARTICULAR store, but of course some people don't think of that. They think they actually know how basic retail works, without ever considering that just because they WORKED in a Best Buy does not give them a college degree.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
A game can still be a success even selling for example $20. If the companies strategy is to sell lots of units to increase subscriber base at the expense of making money up front on box sales.
Seeing a game on the shelf which has prices slashed over and over is a sign that the game just isn't selling well. Seeing the game in the bargain bin means it is being phased out before any remaining stock is sold to a liquidator. That is a bad sign for games as it means no boxes on shelves and that means less growth to offset player churn.
I don't think there is much surprise that TR is not doing well and seeing the game hit the garbage bins is something everyone might have expected. I don't think any games with their boxes in the bargain bin are laughing all the way to the bank. None of them.
A game can still be a success even selling for example $20. If the companies strategy is to sell lots of units to increase subscriber base at the expense of making money up front on box sales. Seeing a game on the shelf which has prices slashed over and over is a sign that the game just isn't selling well. Seeing the game in the bargain bin means it is being phased out before any remaining stock is sold to a liquidator. That is a bad sign for games as it means no boxes on shelves and that means less growth to offset player churn.
I don't think there is much surprise that TR is not doing well and seeing the game hit the garbage bins is something everyone might have expected. I don't think any games with their boxes in the bargain bin are laughing all the way to the bank. None of them.
Of course it might not be selling well...(again) at that particular location.
Let me explain it even in simpler terms:
A store orders so many copies.
The copies do not sell (at that location) as well as hoped, due to many many variables such as location, saturation of the market, and local player population.
I am in Dallas, Texas. A very large city. The Best Buy here will probably sell more of just about anything than the one in El Reno, Oklahoma.
So, what do they do? They get rid of them by marking them down.
Your argument would only work if they marked down the game nation-wide...no, wait, WORLDWIDE, to "bargain bin pricing."
But I have already linked official and non-official stores that are selling the game, still, for the original price.
Is TR doing "not so good?" I don't know. I think, just like AoC, plenty of kids went out and got it to check it out but now are just plain bored, so many are un-subscribing. We know this.
But, instead of analyzing actual numbers (that we have no access to) or attempting to write a thorough, well thought out article filled with predictions, we get "I found 3 copies of it at the Game Stop in that mall for like, 5 bucks! That's a fail!"
Am I talking to 5th graders here? haha
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
It takes allot of balls to ask players to shell out full game price for an MMO client. They're effectively asking you to pay fifty dollars for the first month, whether it's good, bad or a buggy POS. (What am I supposed to do with this AoC box now? I got so screwed, but hey, Eidos got their money back!)
So, yeah, I bought a cheap copy of the CE, why not, it has enough crap in it to make it worth having. When I get through with the freebies all the MMO's are offering this summer, I'll give TR another shot. They may have pieced together a good game by then. If not, It didn't cost me real money and I can put the box next to my Ultima Online CE; an homage to the end of Richard Garriott's career as a game desinger.
A game can still be a success even selling for example $20. If the companies strategy is to sell lots of units to increase subscriber base at the expense of making money up front on box sales. Seeing a game on the shelf which has prices slashed over and over is a sign that the game just isn't selling well. Seeing the game in the bargain bin means it is being phased out before any remaining stock is sold to a liquidator. That is a bad sign for games as it means no boxes on shelves and that means less growth to offset player churn.
I don't think there is much surprise that TR is not doing well and seeing the game hit the garbage bins is something everyone might have expected. I don't think any games with their boxes in the bargain bin are laughing all the way to the bank. None of them.
Of course it might not be selling well...(again) at that particular location.
Let me explain it even in simpler terms:
A store orders so many copies.
The copies do not sell (at that location) as well as hoped, due to many many variables such as location, saturation of the market, and local player population.
I am in Dallas, Texas. A very large city. The Best Buy here will probably sell more of just about anything than the one in El Reno, Oklahoma.
So, what do they do? They get rid of them by marking them down.
Your argument would only work if they marked down the game nation-wide...no, wait, WORLDWIDE, to "bargain bin pricing."
But I have already linked official and non-official stores that are selling the game, still, for the original price.
Is TR doing "not so good?" I don't know. I think, just like AoC, plenty of kids went out and got it to check it out but now are just plain bored, so many are un-subscribing. We know this.
But, instead of analyzing actual numbers (that we have no access to) or attempting to write a thorough, well thought out article filled with predictions, we get "I found 3 copies of it at the Game Stop in that mall for like, 5 bucks! That's a fail!"
Am I talking to 5th graders here? haha
Beau
I think you are reading a little more into my reply than I was intending, but that is how the interwebz works sometimes.
Is TR doing well, no. Even NCSoft admits that sales are bad. Are retailers discounting it, some yes and I would guess all are. Is the game in every bargain bin in every store, I doubt it. Does the corporate webpage reflect the pricing of every single store in the retail chain, no. For example Bestbuy still lists Vanguard on their site though it is sold out, but SOE hasn't made boxes for that game in who knows how long. BB lists TR for $30, but I bet we can find plenty of examples where it is still the original price and others that don't even carry it anymore. It is cheaper to sell copies from online sales and retailers can continue online sales long after they stop carrying boxes at their brick and mortar locations. Website pricing and store pricing don't always go hand in hand or have a relation to how well the other is selling.
Do I think TR is heading to the bargain bin, yes. Most of what I was talking about was in general theory until the last part when I gave my opinion of where TR was heading. I know EB games isn't the best examples of PC games sales, but they are usually the first to dump something that isn't selling PC wise.
A game can still be a success even selling for example $20. If the companies strategy is to sell lots of units to increase subscriber base at the expense of making money up front on box sales. Seeing a game on the shelf which has prices slashed over and over is a sign that the game just isn't selling well. Seeing the game in the bargain bin means it is being phased out before any remaining stock is sold to a liquidator. That is a bad sign for games as it means no boxes on shelves and that means less growth to offset player churn.
I don't think there is much surprise that TR is not doing well and seeing the game hit the garbage bins is something everyone might have expected. I don't think any games with their boxes in the bargain bin are laughing all the way to the bank. None of them.
Of course it might not be selling well...(again) at that particular location.
Let me explain it even in simpler terms:
A store orders so many copies.
The copies do not sell (at that location) as well as hoped, due to many many variables such as location, saturation of the market, and local player population.
I am in Dallas, Texas. A very large city. The Best Buy here will probably sell more of just about anything than the one in El Reno, Oklahoma.
So, what do they do? They get rid of them by marking them down.
Your argument would only work if they marked down the game nation-wide...no, wait, WORLDWIDE, to "bargain bin pricing."
But I have already linked official and non-official stores that are selling the game, still, for the original price.
Is TR doing "not so good?" I don't know. I think, just like AoC, plenty of kids went out and got it to check it out but now are just plain bored, so many are un-subscribing. We know this.
But, instead of analyzing actual numbers (that we have no access to) or attempting to write a thorough, well thought out article filled with predictions, we get "I found 3 copies of it at the Game Stop in that mall for like, 5 bucks! That's a fail!"
Am I talking to 5th graders here? haha
Beau
Kid, no one can fault you for being stupid when you're young, but to spout that crap and not expect a spanking... well, Imma hafta git my belt.
Tabula Rasa has tanked at retailers. That's a fact. It's not a critique on the game, it's not an accusation. It just means that the game sold poorly, which is true. Gamestop/EB sell it for $10 because they can't move it otherwise. Best Buy sells it... for virtually nothing, because they've already offloaded their inventory to a liquidator on ebay who sells the CE for $5. Walmart.com lists the game at full price because they're a separate entity from their brick-and-mortar division, so they're in no hurry to clear "shelf space". You see how the game is listed as $40 at Circuit City? Well, when retailers stock video games, they usually pay around $40 a box to the publisher. That's right, Circuit City is trying to break even on Tabula Rasa sales! They won't, but it's cute that they'd try. Now, to be fair, big box retailers don't really care about video games since the profit margins are so thin, but when the biggest retailer, the biggest video game retailer, the biggest electronics retailer, and one of the biggest online game retailers are almost giving away the game, you know you're in trouble. Oh, and Target has already dumped the game as early as last year. And of course, the game is also $10 at Amazon, only the biggest online retailer in the world.
You're right in that Everquest II and LOTRO aren't failures, but guess what, buttercup? The former is a four-year-old game, and the latter is probably the most popular MMO after World of Warcraft. Earlier, you asked how Tabula Rasa selling for $10 is different from a WoW trial selling for $2 - here's the answer: WoW has 10 million subscribers! That means they don't care how much the client sells for because they just need to get it to you so you can fork over $15 a month. LOTRO doesn't have that many subscribers, but even a fraction of that paying $15 a month equals a bajillion dollars of pure profit. Tabula Rasa, on the other hand, hasn't even recuperated its development costs. And, the game was dropped from NCsoft's income report last quarter! That means, in layman's terms, that the game simply isn't making them any money, so it certainly is a failure.
David011's argument is correct because the game is being dumped by retailers. It's not happening worldwide because, surprise! The game hasn't been released worldwide! So unless you've been to Europe or Australia lately and can tell us otherwise, every retailer would be glad to pay us to take the game if they could.
So, to recap:
Gamestop/EB: $10
Walmart: dumped the game (unconfirmed).
Target: dumped the game.
Amazon: $10
GoGamer: $10
Ebay: $5 CE
Have you ever seen a game go from $50 to just $5-10 in six months? That's right! The last time that happened was during the video game crash of 1983! The reason you probably don't remember that is because you weren't even born when it happened!
the $10 bin is where the best of the old games live...and its a death sentence for those newer games (less than 5 years old).
TR in the bin...is like Fury for $5 at my local store
heck even DnD is getting sold for $15
No, it is not a death sentence. And no, TR in the bin is no where near the same as Fury for 5 dollars.
Again, I point to EQ2. The basic game (which TR is still in the "basic game" phase) can be obtained, (for over a year now) for 4.99 at several stores. EQ2 is in no way a failure. If you think that, SOE is laughing at you when they cash their checks.
Also, LOTRO can now be obtained (on the front page of this website a few days ago) and HERE on the official site for 10 American dollars, and can be played for as low as 10 bucks a month.
So, are you telling me, honestly, that LOTRO and EQ2 are failures?
Now, make sure to not post "yes."
Beau
well since we are talking about EB and not online sales then let us check the price of those 2 games at my local store (this is in Australian Dollars btw).
EQ2: $50
LOTRO:$80
compared to the $15 that TR gets and the $20 that Fury gets i would say they blitz it price wise. as for the quality of the game....i'd say they outclass it as well.
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds -Solid non level based game -Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
Kid, no one can fault you for being stupid when you're young, but to spout that crap and not expect a spanking... well, Imma hafta git my belt.
Uhm, I'm 34. You're saying you want to spank a 34 long haired guy that looks like Andy Dick?
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
The main point of my argument still stands: a game appearing in the "cheap bin" at a game store does not mean the game is a failure.
In no way am I saying or have ever said that the game is doing super crazy good YAY! I am not saying that the game is outperforming all expectations. I am not saying "Stop hurting my favorite game! I love TR!" because I do not play anymore. I have 6 subscriptions going already for random games.
Let me re-state my point: if you think that some local Game-Stop is your barmoter for financial success, you have a great deal to learn.
It was cute though that you thought I might be one of these 17 year olds that frequent this site.
Anyway, listen to my show! www.voyagesofvanguard.wordpress.com ...for all your Vanguard needs!
(I get so many listeners from arguments! lol )
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
the $10 bin is where the best of the old games live...and its a death sentence for those newer games (less than 5 years old).
TR in the bin...is like Fury for $5 at my local store
heck even DnD is getting sold for $15
No, it is not a death sentence. And no, TR in the bin is no where near the same as Fury for 5 dollars.
Again, I point to EQ2. The basic game (which TR is still in the "basic game" phase) can be obtained, (for over a year now) for 4.99 at several stores. EQ2 is in no way a failure. If you think that, SOE is laughing at you when they cash their checks.
Also, LOTRO can now be obtained (on the front page of this website a few days ago) and HERE on the official site for 10 American dollars, and can be played for as low as 10 bucks a month.
So, are you telling me, honestly, that LOTRO and EQ2 are failures?
Now, make sure to not post "yes."
Beau
well since we are talking about EB and not online sales then let us check the price of those 2 games at my local store (this is in Australian Dollars btw).
EQ2: $50
LOTRO:$80
compared to the $15 that TR gets and the $20 that Fury gets i would say they blitz it price wise. as for the quality of the game....i'd say they outclass it as well.
So, you have just proven my point that regional pressures have more to do with "success" of a game in that area than anything.
Cuz' guess what? EQ2 has been 5 bucks for the last year at the 3 game stops that I go to. Each store is almost in it's own bubble.
Please please please don't think that one store (or even 10 stores) are an accurate way to get market information. The game IS NOT doing as well as it could have, I never have said otherwise, just for the record.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
Kid, no one can fault you for being stupid when you're young, but to spout that crap and not expect a spanking... well, Imma hafta git my belt.
Uhm, I'm 34. You're saying you want to spank a 34 long haired guy that looks like Andy Dick?
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
The main point of my argument still stands: a game appearing in the "cheap bin" at a game store does not mean the game is a failure.
In no way am I saying or have ever said that the game is doing super crazy good YAY! I am not saying that the game is outperforming all expectations. I am not saying "Stop hurting my favorite game! I love TR!" because I do not play anymore. I have 6 subscriptions going already for random games.
Let me re-state my point: if you think that some local Game-Stop is your barmoter for financial success, you have a great deal to learn.
It was cute though that you thought I might be one of these 17 year olds that frequent this site.
Anyway, listen to my show! www.voyagesofvanguard.wordpress.com ...for all your Vanguard needs!
(I get so many listeners from arguments! lol )
Beau
Except it's not just Gamestop. It's the biggest retailers in the country, and the biggest online retailer in the world.
My barometer for finanacial success is this: this game cost at least $20 million to develop, and that's a conservative estimate. Do you really think they've made that much yet?
Except it's not just Gamestop. It's the biggest retailers in the country, and the biggest online retailer in the world.
My barometer for finanacial success is this: this game cost at least $20 million to develop, and that's a conservative estimate. Do you really think they've made that much yet?
Again, Wal-Mart or Target or any other store that stops carrying a certain item does not mean that the item is a failure. Wal-Mart might just see it as not worthy of more purchases.
Here's a nother REAL easy example: How many players does EVE have? Ok...now, are they carried in any major store?
I'll wait a second for this to sink in.
Eve has a good many players, and no one can say that they are a failing company over there at CCP. They do not sell boxes of their game, generally, if at all. They rely on advertising, word of mouth and digitial downloads.
Ok wait, there for a second I thought someone was going to say that Eve is a total failure, simply becuase their local Wal-Mart tells them so.
Ok, let's say 20 million is right...here let me find something....
There was a contorversial article put out a bit ago, and HERE's the link explaining the response that came from NCsoft.
Read up. Do your homework.
Just because TR is not doing "as well" as some for you perceive, and is not doing "as good as" they had hoped it would, none of you know anything at all about the behind the scenes at one of the world's biggest MMO developers, PERIOD.
You are gathering estimations from "what I've heard." That's pretty scientific.
See, it all depends on what your goals are, as a company. If their goal was to be bigger than WoW, then sure, they failed at that. If their goal was to make back their money, they might not have yet ,but the game is not over. . Also, an MMO is not a movie. It does not have a limited amount of time it is released in theaters. (We are not talking about DVD sales or other merchandising for sake of argument.)
An MMO makes money every month it is out. Whether that money is a profit or not, depends on the company.
At my wifes job, for example, she gets a yearly salary. Her salary is not depending on whether or not they get a new client that month, or whether or not the current client has issues or not. Her salary has already been paid and accounted for. Laying her off would depend on predictions, or a massive loss of revenue. It can also have to do with fear or with "let's get out before this gets worse" type attitude.
NCSoft is not going "Oh my god, if blank amount of players don't log in we have to shut the lights off." If they were to shut down the game, it would depend on many, many more circumstances that abviously a good deal of people (on these forums and beyond) DO NOT understand.
Ask yourself this: Does Dungeon Runners make more money? How bout Lineage 2 or Exsteel? (Lineage 2, maybe, it's got a huge market in Asia.)
Now think HARD ok? But don't hurt yourself.
The money and salaries for Tabula has already been accounted for and paid out. The servers and salaries are not the reason they would "shut it down." They would shut it down if they thought that in the long run it would cause them harm.
Of course, I guess LIneage 2 and Exstell are making milions more than TR. Right?
This is a silly argument. I cannot convince ANYONE that takes economical cues from anything other than the company itself that they should think differently. If the game is continuing to be played, developed, enjoyed and actually stays open does not mean it failed. If it failed, it would not be there. That company, again, knows MUCH MUCH more than any of us about running an MMO.
Ok guys I'll see ya..according to Best Buy that movie Passion of the Christ was a failure because it's on sale for only 5 bucks...gotta' go...I never saw that piece of shit movie.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
Here ya go...these are some slips from recent reports and articles, coming from the source itself:
This is especially pointed at the guy that said the cost for making TR was 20 million:
In response to the Koren Tmes article:
"The first thing to note is that the story goes against NCsoft's recent financial results, which praised Garriott's game for earning 5 billion won since its launch last fall."
""The Korea Times English edition story is full of inaccuracies," said Swofford in his opening comments to us. "No one at NCsoft said the product is a financial disaster."
""The TR development did not cost $100 million," notes Swofford. "I don't know where that came from. The price tag for the product was much less ... a fraction of that cost.""
k, so a fraction of that COULD technically be anything. So let's set it at 500 million. lol
So, these next quotes were from the "disturbing quarterly report" that mentioned TR only TWICE! *gasp*
"The first direct mention of Tabula Rasa comes on page three of the 18 page Q1 earnings report, under "Online Game Sales Mix by Game". In Q4 of 2007, TR's launch brought in about 5 billion Won. When compared to NCSoft's other games during that quarter, it comes closest to City of Heroes/City of Villains, which pulled in 5.4 billion Won. This quarter paints a different picture as TR brought in only 1 billion Won while CoH/CoV brought in another 5.4 billion. Quarter over quarter (QoQ), TR experienced a 63% drop in this category."
Ok, so at one point they made 5 BILLION. 5 BILLION. Is that more than even 100 million?
Which is more? 100 million or 5 BILLION?
But of course, they DROPPED later, to only 1 BILLION!! AHHH!! Only one BILLION made!
"Due to TR having both a double influx of new players wishing to try the game at launch in addition to the holiday season, it's pretty easy to have a drop occur into the next quarter. NCSoft expressed that TR has done the same, market wise, when compared to other titles during that time."
Of course, all of you are saying that all the other titles in NCsoft's line-up are failures.
See, even if the game does not make a profit, or at least a satisfactory profit, does not mean it was a failure, or is failing.
I am not claiming that TR is going to make the profit they wanted, or even profit at all..being that I do not know the exact details of how much the game cost or how much the game NEEDS to make before they are happy.
If they continue to make at least a bil (that's a billion) per quarter, they could make 4 billion a year. Now, at what point do they indeed "make a profit"? Who knows. There have been recent articles explaining that NCSoft is worried, but admit that they simply tweak a few things to make more of a profit.
But see, the game is not a movie. It goes on for months and months, if not years. They can still make a much larger profit. If you are saying a game is a failure BEFORE it is wiped out, then you have no idea how this stuff works.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
First of all, you are confusing won with dollars. 1 billion won is approx. 1 million dollars.
Tabula Rasa is a disaster. So much so that it wasn't even mentioned in the first quarter of 2008 financial report summary, they're so ashamed of it. All the other NcSoft games were mentioned and how mich revenue they generated. You have to go to NcSoft.net and download the PDF complete quarterly reports and sift through all the details to find out that from the last quarter of 07 to the first quarter of 08--sales/revenue has gone down 63%. TR made about $5M (that 5 billion won) in the quarter it was released, but only made about $2M (2 billion won) the next quarter. In the same period, COH sales remained steady at about $5M also.
As for how much TR cost to develop, that depends on how Swofford chooses to spin his answer. Does he include the cost of the FIRST TR that NcSoft Austin threw out in 2004? Probably not. Does he include the awesomely huge sums that NcSoft Seoul paid to buy the Garriott name brand and "knowhow"? Probably not. Cash and stock to the brothers could be between $80-120M depending on how those stock options work--and when they sold them, the stock price, etc.
It depends on how you look at it--but NcSoft has no hope of getting back what it has invested in the whole Garriott project over the past seven years. What it does hope now is that TR will at least earn enough money to pay for its monthly expenses.
But that's not looking good, either. If TR continues to generate income at the same rate as the first quarter, it looks like it will earn $7M (dollars). NcSoft Seoul has already said that they need between $10-15M to pay the game's expenses for the year (Conference call).
I have never said that TR is doing super duper good.
Here is the reason this whole snooze fest of a thread started anyway:
1) A game being in a discount bin proves that the game has failed.
I argued that this proves nothing, as far as very successful titles like EQ2 can be found in the "discount bin" and LOTRO can be bought off the official site for 10 dollars. Of course, no one will say that EQ2 and LOTRO are unsuccessful. Also, games like EVE do not even have boxes, and yet no one would say that EVE is in poor shape.
2) The game has not made a huge profit, if at all. That does not mean a game has failed. If the game failed, it would be gone. Some games, like EQ2 and EVE had really rough starts and have taken years to get to where they are. But there were times when people said they were in horrible shape, and some still do.
Also, if you want to believe that everything the company says has "spin" on it, go ahead. The proof is in the pudding: the game is still there, they have said it's not performing where they want it but they talked about seasonal drops and how normal that is, and how the game is performing equally as well as some of their other titles.
Of course, that could be lies.
Strange though, the game isn't canceled. It's there, waiting to be played.
It will be a "failure" when it ceases to exist. The game company would phase it out.
Of course, we here at these silly little forums that are read by the same few K people know more about MMO's then they do. After all, they only make BILLIONS doing what they do.
I mean, shoot, we have BLOGS here. Obviously NCsoft doesn't know who they are dealing with.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
You bring up the subject of "silly little forums" like this, and the absurdity of thinking that TR making its way into the bargain bins might not bode well for the long-term survival of the game...
Blogs--the TR forums are also dying out. Have you visited tr.stratics, lately? It was never very busy, but the last update to the news section was March 10 and you can't access the discussions anymore. This TR forum, here, is getting slower and slower. Planettr is the busiest remaining forum, and it is also slowing down. I'd say that is as big an indication of lack of interest--as seeing the boxes marked down on ebay for $5. (Where do these guys get these boxes to sell, anyway?)
I have never said that TR is doing super duper good. Here is the reason this whole snooze fest of a thread started anyway: 1) A game being in a discount bin proves that the game has failed. I argued that this proves nothing, as far as very successful titles like EQ2 can be found in the "discount bin" and LOTRO can be bought off the official site for 10 dollars. Of course, no one will say that EQ2 and LOTRO are unsuccessful. Also, games like EVE do not even have boxes, and yet no one would say that EVE is in poor shape.
2) The game has not made a huge profit, if at all. That does not mean a game has failed. If the game failed, it would be gone. Some games, like EQ2 and EVE had really rough starts and have taken years to get to where they are. But there were times when people said they were in horrible shape, and some still do.
Also, if you want to believe that everything the company says has "spin" on it, go ahead. The proof is in the pudding: the game is still there, they have said it's not performing where they want it but they talked about seasonal drops and how normal that is, and how the game is performing equally as well as some of their other titles. Of course, that could be lies. Strange though, the game isn't canceled. It's there, waiting to be played. It will be a "failure" when it ceases to exist. The game company would phase it out. Of course, we here at these silly little forums that are read by the same few K people know more about MMO's then they do. After all, they only make BILLIONS doing what they do. I mean, shoot, we have BLOGS here. Obviously NCsoft doesn't know who they are dealing with. Beau
Every time someone brings up a valid counterpoint, you say "I never said the game was doing super duper good." Why? Absolutely no one in the history of mankind has said that it was, not even the devs.
And why are you still here if you don't even play the game?
Let me address your latest points, one of which actually has some merit.
1) I addressed this when you brought it up earlier, but you conveniently ignored it, so here it is again: Everquest II and LOTRO can be found for bargain bin prices. 'Tis true, my good sir, but you are forgetting that the former has a dozen expansions and bundles (which increases the playerbase) and the latter is - was? - the second most popular MMO after WoW, so it has a huge playerbase, around a million subscribers, paying $10-15 a month. Tabula Rasa at its peak had aound 150k subscribers. Lemme know if you're having trouble with the arithmetic.
Eve Online does not have boxes - you say that like it's a bad thing. For a super-niche game like Eve, it would probably be a bad thing, as having boxes and retail distribution greatly increases operational costs.
Earlier you mentioned that the Passion of the Christ movie must be a failure since it's in the $5 bin at Walmart - stop being an idiot. Movies unlike MMOs make profit in just about every way that you can imagine: at the theater, DVD sales and rentals, digital downloads, cable television, and that's before all special editions, reissues, unrated editions, and new video formats like Blu-ray. MMOs only generate revenue through subscriptions. That's it.
2) "The game has not made a huge profit, if at all" - a huge understatement, that. That's not even the worst part; if they broke even, it would be one thing, but they have already sunk millions into this project, and that loss of potential revenue greatly limits future development. If your work cost you millions of dollars of debt, would you continue to dedicate resources to it? I don't know when you quit or if you've ever played the game at all, so here's what they've added since launch, from the mouth of an actual player: an auction house and two or three new instances, and a skill bug fix that caused an exodus of players. That's it.
If you consider an MMO failing only when it has shut down, you can count them all on one hand. And guess what? Very, very few MMOs actually shut down because the cost of keeping it running is marginal compared to how much it cost developing it, so if they shut it down now, they would never be able to recoup these costs, whereas keeping it running will allow them to do so in a few years. One of these special few that were shut down was NCsoft's latst game, Auto Assault, and TR even uses its engine! You can bet your ass that NCsoft will do whatever it can to keep TR alive to avoid further damaging its reputation. In fact, they've already started: their games don't come with paper manuals anymore, especially not the thick, glossy ones for Guild Wars.
You should count your lucky stars that you're not running the company, as you would have surely run it into the ground by now with your notions of "these silly little forums." (And, honey, for the last time, no one makes billions. Not unless you're Warren Buffet.) Because here's how forums work: John Regular hears about this new game coming out from the creator of his favorite video game, Ultima, and asks people if they've heard about it. Billy Blue Eyes says, "Heard of it? I've played it. It's a fun game, but I wouldn't pay $15 a month for it." John Regular's friend asks, "So? Have you tried out the new game by the creator of Ultma yet?" John Regular says, "I think I'll stick with WoW."
a) I don't care who is right or wrong about numbers. I simply quoted some stuff I googled within 5 minutes. That does not matter, and has nothing to do with the original argument. I never said I was right or wrong, and still don't pretend to be either. I, like you, am going from my gut.
Here's how little I care: I am totally wrong about numbers, and you are totally right. There, have a smile.
b) I keep coming here because between working on projects, walking my dogs, eating and cleaning, I have time to look at a forum and post for 5 minutes. It's not hard. It's not even multi-tasking. I just refresh the page or check it once in a while.
c) Think for a second about games that have been described as "failures". I play Vanguard, for chrissakes. I think anyone that has followed MMO's for a while (10 years for me) knows how VG performed. Now, look at the recent (last 3 or 4 months) surge in player base and updating going on. SOE talks about new players coming in, and is not only updating but has plans for more updates and is doing live events.
Is Vanguard a failure? Try telling that the thousands that play it and to my listeners.
d) SWG was labeled a "failure" and still is. It is not a failure. EQ2 was labeled a "failure" and still is by some, and is not a failure. LOTRO was even laughed at when they lost a good deal of players (a natural occurence, ask any MMO company, due to season, trial perdiods ending and other factors) but is LOTRO a failure?
e) I have been saying "I have not claimed that TR is as successful (super duper) as the company would have liked. No MMO ever is. I said that to "cut off at the pass" those that might say that the opposite of failure is success. There are more shades of grey in there, and TR is in the "attempting to succeed, give it time" phase.
If you are claiming TR is failure, then again I say that you are wrong. I will wait unti lthe COMPANY calls it a failure. If you think every MMO has total success withing a year or even two, then you have not paid attention to the last 10 years of online gaming.
Now, go compare all these "TR is a failure" posts to the last 10 years of posts saying the same thing about some of our most successful MMO's.
You're right, too much work.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
Comments
so the game is selling for less than the monthly fee (no really that IS a bad sign) and as of last week (when i actually bought and played TR for the first time since the scary closed beta) it seems people only play it to gripe about it. there was 0 gold selling (theres no reason for it!), people were recruiting for pvp guilds (to call it a mockery is to defame mockery itself), and apparently they STILL have not fixed bugs from the beta!! the crafting system is not only stupid but you have to have a clone dedicated to it and it would consume more time than it would take to get a character to level 50 (cap) for slight advantages.
what struck me the hardest was when i reloaded my shotgun there was an animation and a sound effect, unfortunately the sound was just there for show, because if you swapped weps right after the sound ended (you know using a sense other than sight to play) it would cycle to the next wep and you would negate the reloading you just did. second was the enemies still being able to shoot part way around corners. third is the fact that at this stage in "development" they are nerfing the graphics engine (yea you read that right the game looks worse now than it did in closed beta, fogging starts @ 70m now when it was 100m then)
it being in the 10$ bin is a sign, unlike getting a free copy of wow when i bought two worlds from amazon for 10$ (2 POS for the price of 1). im thinking what they have done is left a skeleton crew to develop TR while sinking all the talent into aion (if you havent played some places in TR look EXACTLY like aion). they hurt their rep by having yet another failing game on their list, which is only made worse by the fact that they plainly dont support their own products.
i think dungeon runners has more subs than TR at this point (looking forward to the boxed version actually because the boxes look so nice all lined up row after row). i was REALLY hoping that 7 months would be enough time for them to fix all the scary/ugly things i remember so well from CB, but alas no. one week of hard core play to hit cap and then there is NOTHING to do with that character, and the hardest part of doing that was enduring quest chains that break WHILE inside an instance, character storage mysteriously vanishing and reappearing, and the constant stream of gripes that scroll by in the top left corner of the screen.
Ok, so go ahead now and explain how it is different than you getting a free copy of WoW. Technically, you can get a disc of WoW for 1.99 at the local Gamestop, regardless of the fact that it is a "trial" it is still the full game, minus expansion.
And again, with the quoting of numbers. How do you know that Dungeon Runners has more players? At least quote your sources.
Posts like that are the ones that reaffirm to me that the Internet is so full of BS theories and estimations that if you believe any of it without doing your homework you are either:
a) A child.
b) Lazy as hell.
I would love it if I had the magic powers of make-believe!
Again, to sum up: the "bin" at your local game store or wal mart has nothing to do with success or failure. It has a good deal to do with region, and how many copies sold at THAT PARTICULAR store, but of course some people don't think of that. They think they actually know how basic retail works, without ever considering that just because they WORKED in a Best Buy does not give them a college degree.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
A game can still be a success even selling for example $20. If the companies strategy is to sell lots of units to increase subscriber base at the expense of making money up front on box sales.
Seeing a game on the shelf which has prices slashed over and over is a sign that the game just isn't selling well. Seeing the game in the bargain bin means it is being phased out before any remaining stock is sold to a liquidator. That is a bad sign for games as it means no boxes on shelves and that means less growth to offset player churn.
I don't think there is much surprise that TR is not doing well and seeing the game hit the garbage bins is something everyone might have expected. I don't think any games with their boxes in the bargain bin are laughing all the way to the bank. None of them.
Of course it might not be selling well...(again) at that particular location.
Let me explain it even in simpler terms:
A store orders so many copies.
The copies do not sell (at that location) as well as hoped, due to many many variables such as location, saturation of the market, and local player population.
I am in Dallas, Texas. A very large city. The Best Buy here will probably sell more of just about anything than the one in El Reno, Oklahoma.
So, what do they do? They get rid of them by marking them down.
Your argument would only work if they marked down the game nation-wide...no, wait, WORLDWIDE, to "bargain bin pricing."
But I have already linked official and non-official stores that are selling the game, still, for the original price.
Is TR doing "not so good?" I don't know. I think, just like AoC, plenty of kids went out and got it to check it out but now are just plain bored, so many are un-subscribing. We know this.
But, instead of analyzing actual numbers (that we have no access to) or attempting to write a thorough, well thought out article filled with predictions, we get "I found 3 copies of it at the Game Stop in that mall for like, 5 bucks! That's a fail!"
Am I talking to 5th graders here? haha
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
LOLZ @ ; sig!!!
back to topic, TR is worth $10 no doubt, but not worth another $15 month
It takes allot of balls to ask players to shell out full game price for an MMO client. They're effectively asking you to pay fifty dollars for the first month, whether it's good, bad or a buggy POS. (What am I supposed to do with this AoC box now? I got so screwed, but hey, Eidos got their money back!)
So, yeah, I bought a cheap copy of the CE, why not, it has enough crap in it to make it worth having. When I get through with the freebies all the MMO's are offering this summer, I'll give TR another shot. They may have pieced together a good game by then. If not, It didn't cost me real money and I can put the box next to my Ultima Online CE; an homage to the end of Richard Garriott's career as a game desinger.
Of course it might not be selling well...(again) at that particular location.
Let me explain it even in simpler terms:
A store orders so many copies.
The copies do not sell (at that location) as well as hoped, due to many many variables such as location, saturation of the market, and local player population.
I am in Dallas, Texas. A very large city. The Best Buy here will probably sell more of just about anything than the one in El Reno, Oklahoma.
So, what do they do? They get rid of them by marking them down.
Your argument would only work if they marked down the game nation-wide...no, wait, WORLDWIDE, to "bargain bin pricing."
But I have already linked official and non-official stores that are selling the game, still, for the original price.
Is TR doing "not so good?" I don't know. I think, just like AoC, plenty of kids went out and got it to check it out but now are just plain bored, so many are un-subscribing. We know this.
But, instead of analyzing actual numbers (that we have no access to) or attempting to write a thorough, well thought out article filled with predictions, we get "I found 3 copies of it at the Game Stop in that mall for like, 5 bucks! That's a fail!"
Am I talking to 5th graders here? haha
Beau
I think you are reading a little more into my reply than I was intending, but that is how the interwebz works sometimes.
Is TR doing well, no. Even NCSoft admits that sales are bad. Are retailers discounting it, some yes and I would guess all are. Is the game in every bargain bin in every store, I doubt it. Does the corporate webpage reflect the pricing of every single store in the retail chain, no. For example Bestbuy still lists Vanguard on their site though it is sold out, but SOE hasn't made boxes for that game in who knows how long. BB lists TR for $30, but I bet we can find plenty of examples where it is still the original price and others that don't even carry it anymore. It is cheaper to sell copies from online sales and retailers can continue online sales long after they stop carrying boxes at their brick and mortar locations. Website pricing and store pricing don't always go hand in hand or have a relation to how well the other is selling.
Do I think TR is heading to the bargain bin, yes. Most of what I was talking about was in general theory until the last part when I gave my opinion of where TR was heading. I know EB games isn't the best examples of PC games sales, but they are usually the first to dump something that isn't selling PC wise.
Of course it might not be selling well...(again) at that particular location.
Let me explain it even in simpler terms:
A store orders so many copies.
The copies do not sell (at that location) as well as hoped, due to many many variables such as location, saturation of the market, and local player population.
I am in Dallas, Texas. A very large city. The Best Buy here will probably sell more of just about anything than the one in El Reno, Oklahoma.
So, what do they do? They get rid of them by marking them down.
Your argument would only work if they marked down the game nation-wide...no, wait, WORLDWIDE, to "bargain bin pricing."
But I have already linked official and non-official stores that are selling the game, still, for the original price.
Is TR doing "not so good?" I don't know. I think, just like AoC, plenty of kids went out and got it to check it out but now are just plain bored, so many are un-subscribing. We know this.
But, instead of analyzing actual numbers (that we have no access to) or attempting to write a thorough, well thought out article filled with predictions, we get "I found 3 copies of it at the Game Stop in that mall for like, 5 bucks! That's a fail!"
Am I talking to 5th graders here? haha
Beau
Kid, no one can fault you for being stupid when you're young, but to spout that crap and not expect a spanking... well, Imma hafta git my belt.
Tabula Rasa has tanked at retailers. That's a fact. It's not a critique on the game, it's not an accusation. It just means that the game sold poorly, which is true. Gamestop/EB sell it for $10 because they can't move it otherwise. Best Buy sells it... for virtually nothing, because they've already offloaded their inventory to a liquidator on ebay who sells the CE for $5. Walmart.com lists the game at full price because they're a separate entity from their brick-and-mortar division, so they're in no hurry to clear "shelf space". You see how the game is listed as $40 at Circuit City? Well, when retailers stock video games, they usually pay around $40 a box to the publisher. That's right, Circuit City is trying to break even on Tabula Rasa sales! They won't, but it's cute that they'd try. Now, to be fair, big box retailers don't really care about video games since the profit margins are so thin, but when the biggest retailer, the biggest video game retailer, the biggest electronics retailer, and one of the biggest online game retailers are almost giving away the game, you know you're in trouble. Oh, and Target has already dumped the game as early as last year. And of course, the game is also $10 at Amazon, only the biggest online retailer in the world.
You're right in that Everquest II and LOTRO aren't failures, but guess what, buttercup? The former is a four-year-old game, and the latter is probably the most popular MMO after World of Warcraft. Earlier, you asked how Tabula Rasa selling for $10 is different from a WoW trial selling for $2 - here's the answer: WoW has 10 million subscribers! That means they don't care how much the client sells for because they just need to get it to you so you can fork over $15 a month. LOTRO doesn't have that many subscribers, but even a fraction of that paying $15 a month equals a bajillion dollars of pure profit. Tabula Rasa, on the other hand, hasn't even recuperated its development costs. And, the game was dropped from NCsoft's income report last quarter! That means, in layman's terms, that the game simply isn't making them any money, so it certainly is a failure.
David011's argument is correct because the game is being dumped by retailers. It's not happening worldwide because, surprise! The game hasn't been released worldwide! So unless you've been to Europe or Australia lately and can tell us otherwise, every retailer would be glad to pay us to take the game if they could.
So, to recap:
Gamestop/EB: $10
Walmart: dumped the game (unconfirmed).
Target: dumped the game.
Amazon: $10
GoGamer: $10
Ebay: $5 CE
Have you ever seen a game go from $50 to just $5-10 in six months? That's right! The last time that happened was during the video game crash of 1983! The reason you probably don't remember that is because you weren't even born when it happened!
Am I talking to a 5th grader? Haha.
No, it is not a death sentence. And no, TR in the bin is no where near the same as Fury for 5 dollars.
Again, I point to EQ2. The basic game (which TR is still in the "basic game" phase) can be obtained, (for over a year now) for 4.99 at several stores. EQ2 is in no way a failure. If you think that, SOE is laughing at you when they cash their checks.
Also, LOTRO can now be obtained (on the front page of this website a few days ago) and HERE on the official site for 10 American dollars, and can be played for as low as 10 bucks a month.
So, are you telling me, honestly, that LOTRO and EQ2 are failures?
Now, make sure to not post "yes."
Beau
well since we are talking about EB and not online sales then let us check the price of those 2 games at my local store (this is in Australian Dollars btw).
EQ2: $50
LOTRO:$80
compared to the $15 that TR gets and the $20 that Fury gets i would say they blitz it price wise. as for the quality of the game....i'd say they outclass it as well.
MMO wish list:
-Changeable worlds
-Solid non level based game
-Sharks with lasers attached to their heads
Uhm, I'm 34. You're saying you want to spank a 34 long haired guy that looks like Andy Dick?
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
The main point of my argument still stands: a game appearing in the "cheap bin" at a game store does not mean the game is a failure.
In no way am I saying or have ever said that the game is doing super crazy good YAY! I am not saying that the game is outperforming all expectations. I am not saying "Stop hurting my favorite game! I love TR!" because I do not play anymore. I have 6 subscriptions going already for random games.
Let me re-state my point: if you think that some local Game-Stop is your barmoter for financial success, you have a great deal to learn.
It was cute though that you thought I might be one of these 17 year olds that frequent this site.
Anyway, listen to my show! www.voyagesofvanguard.wordpress.com ...for all your Vanguard needs!
(I get so many listeners from arguments! lol )
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
No, it is not a death sentence. And no, TR in the bin is no where near the same as Fury for 5 dollars.
Again, I point to EQ2. The basic game (which TR is still in the "basic game" phase) can be obtained, (for over a year now) for 4.99 at several stores. EQ2 is in no way a failure. If you think that, SOE is laughing at you when they cash their checks.
Also, LOTRO can now be obtained (on the front page of this website a few days ago) and HERE on the official site for 10 American dollars, and can be played for as low as 10 bucks a month.
So, are you telling me, honestly, that LOTRO and EQ2 are failures?
Now, make sure to not post "yes."
Beau
well since we are talking about EB and not online sales then let us check the price of those 2 games at my local store (this is in Australian Dollars btw).
EQ2: $50
LOTRO:$80
compared to the $15 that TR gets and the $20 that Fury gets i would say they blitz it price wise. as for the quality of the game....i'd say they outclass it as well.
So, you have just proven my point that regional pressures have more to do with "success" of a game in that area than anything.
Cuz' guess what? EQ2 has been 5 bucks for the last year at the 3 game stops that I go to. Each store is almost in it's own bubble.
Please please please don't think that one store (or even 10 stores) are an accurate way to get market information. The game IS NOT doing as well as it could have, I never have said otherwise, just for the record.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
My friend got his copy in a bin donate to the church he paid 5 bucks even for it. That's pretty bad.
Current MMO: Aion
MMO Watch: Warhammer 40k Online, SWToR, GW2.
Played: Planetside, SWG, EQ, EQ2, L2, WoW, RFO, KAL, MxO, Voyage, RO,Vanguard,Tabula Rasa, Horizons, CoH/CoV,, Lotro, FFXI
First MMO: Everquest (Tunare Server, Ronin/Tide Guild)
Uhm, I'm 34. You're saying you want to spank a 34 long haired guy that looks like Andy Dick?
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
The main point of my argument still stands: a game appearing in the "cheap bin" at a game store does not mean the game is a failure.
In no way am I saying or have ever said that the game is doing super crazy good YAY! I am not saying that the game is outperforming all expectations. I am not saying "Stop hurting my favorite game! I love TR!" because I do not play anymore. I have 6 subscriptions going already for random games.
Let me re-state my point: if you think that some local Game-Stop is your barmoter for financial success, you have a great deal to learn.
It was cute though that you thought I might be one of these 17 year olds that frequent this site.
Anyway, listen to my show! www.voyagesofvanguard.wordpress.com ...for all your Vanguard needs!
(I get so many listeners from arguments! lol )
Beau
Except it's not just Gamestop. It's the biggest retailers in the country, and the biggest online retailer in the world.
My barometer for finanacial success is this: this game cost at least $20 million to develop, and that's a conservative estimate. Do you really think they've made that much yet?
Except it's not just Gamestop. It's the biggest retailers in the country, and the biggest online retailer in the world.
My barometer for finanacial success is this: this game cost at least $20 million to develop, and that's a conservative estimate. Do you really think they've made that much yet?
Again, Wal-Mart or Target or any other store that stops carrying a certain item does not mean that the item is a failure. Wal-Mart might just see it as not worthy of more purchases.
Here's a nother REAL easy example: How many players does EVE have? Ok...now, are they carried in any major store?
I'll wait a second for this to sink in.
Eve has a good many players, and no one can say that they are a failing company over there at CCP. They do not sell boxes of their game, generally, if at all. They rely on advertising, word of mouth and digitial downloads.
Ok wait, there for a second I thought someone was going to say that Eve is a total failure, simply becuase their local Wal-Mart tells them so.
Ok, let's say 20 million is right...here let me find something....
There was a contorversial article put out a bit ago, and HERE's the link explaining the response that came from NCsoft.
Read up. Do your homework.
Just because TR is not doing "as well" as some for you perceive, and is not doing "as good as" they had hoped it would, none of you know anything at all about the behind the scenes at one of the world's biggest MMO developers, PERIOD.
You are gathering estimations from "what I've heard." That's pretty scientific.
See, it all depends on what your goals are, as a company. If their goal was to be bigger than WoW, then sure, they failed at that. If their goal was to make back their money, they might not have yet ,but the game is not over. . Also, an MMO is not a movie. It does not have a limited amount of time it is released in theaters. (We are not talking about DVD sales or other merchandising for sake of argument.)
An MMO makes money every month it is out. Whether that money is a profit or not, depends on the company.
At my wifes job, for example, she gets a yearly salary. Her salary is not depending on whether or not they get a new client that month, or whether or not the current client has issues or not. Her salary has already been paid and accounted for. Laying her off would depend on predictions, or a massive loss of revenue. It can also have to do with fear or with "let's get out before this gets worse" type attitude.
NCSoft is not going "Oh my god, if blank amount of players don't log in we have to shut the lights off." If they were to shut down the game, it would depend on many, many more circumstances that abviously a good deal of people (on these forums and beyond) DO NOT understand.
Ask yourself this: Does Dungeon Runners make more money? How bout Lineage 2 or Exsteel? (Lineage 2, maybe, it's got a huge market in Asia.)
Now think HARD ok? But don't hurt yourself.
The money and salaries for Tabula has already been accounted for and paid out. The servers and salaries are not the reason they would "shut it down." They would shut it down if they thought that in the long run it would cause them harm.
Of course, I guess LIneage 2 and Exstell are making milions more than TR. Right?
This is a silly argument. I cannot convince ANYONE that takes economical cues from anything other than the company itself that they should think differently. If the game is continuing to be played, developed, enjoyed and actually stays open does not mean it failed. If it failed, it would not be there. That company, again, knows MUCH MUCH more than any of us about running an MMO.
Ok guys I'll see ya..according to Best Buy that movie Passion of the Christ was a failure because it's on sale for only 5 bucks...gotta' go...I never saw that piece of shit movie.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
Here ya go...these are some slips from recent reports and articles, coming from the source itself:
This is especially pointed at the guy that said the cost for making TR was 20 million:
In response to the Koren Tmes article:
"The first thing to note is that the story goes against NCsoft's recent financial results, which praised Garriott's game for earning 5 billion won since its launch last fall."
""The Korea Times English edition story is full of inaccuracies," said Swofford in his opening comments to us. "No one at NCsoft said the product is a financial disaster."
""The TR development did not cost $100 million," notes Swofford. "I don't know where that came from. The price tag for the product was much less ... a fraction of that cost.""
k, so a fraction of that COULD technically be anything. So let's set it at 500 million. lol
So, these next quotes were from the "disturbing quarterly report" that mentioned TR only TWICE! *gasp*
"The first direct mention of Tabula Rasa comes on page three of the 18 page Q1 earnings report, under "Online Game Sales Mix by Game". In Q4 of 2007, TR's launch brought in about 5 billion Won. When compared to NCSoft's other games during that quarter, it comes closest to City of Heroes/City of Villains, which pulled in 5.4 billion Won. This quarter paints a different picture as TR brought in only 1 billion Won while CoH/CoV brought in another 5.4 billion. Quarter over quarter (QoQ), TR experienced a 63% drop in this category."
Ok, so at one point they made 5 BILLION. 5 BILLION. Is that more than even 100 million?
Which is more? 100 million or 5 BILLION?
But of course, they DROPPED later, to only 1 BILLION!! AHHH!! Only one BILLION made!
"Due to TR having both a double influx of new players wishing to try the game at launch in addition to the holiday season, it's pretty easy to have a drop occur into the next quarter. NCSoft expressed that TR has done the same, market wise, when compared to other titles during that time."
Of course, all of you are saying that all the other titles in NCsoft's line-up are failures.
See, even if the game does not make a profit, or at least a satisfactory profit, does not mean it was a failure, or is failing.
I am not claiming that TR is going to make the profit they wanted, or even profit at all..being that I do not know the exact details of how much the game cost or how much the game NEEDS to make before they are happy.
If they continue to make at least a bil (that's a billion) per quarter, they could make 4 billion a year. Now, at what point do they indeed "make a profit"? Who knows. There have been recent articles explaining that NCSoft is worried, but admit that they simply tweak a few things to make more of a profit.
But see, the game is not a movie. It goes on for months and months, if not years. They can still make a much larger profit. If you are saying a game is a failure BEFORE it is wiped out, then you have no idea how this stuff works.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
Tabula Rasa is a disaster. So much so that it wasn't even mentioned in the first quarter of 2008 financial report summary, they're so ashamed of it. All the other NcSoft games were mentioned and how mich revenue they generated. You have to go to NcSoft.net and download the PDF complete quarterly reports and sift through all the details to find out that from the last quarter of 07 to the first quarter of 08--sales/revenue has gone down 63%. TR made about $5M (that 5 billion won) in the quarter it was released, but only made about $2M (2 billion won) the next quarter. In the same period, COH sales remained steady at about $5M also.
As for how much TR cost to develop, that depends on how Swofford chooses to spin his answer. Does he include the cost of the FIRST TR that NcSoft Austin threw out in 2004? Probably not. Does he include the awesomely huge sums that NcSoft Seoul paid to buy the Garriott name brand and "knowhow"? Probably not. Cash and stock to the brothers could be between $80-120M depending on how those stock options work--and when they sold them, the stock price, etc.
It depends on how you look at it--but NcSoft has no hope of getting back what it has invested in the whole Garriott project over the past seven years. What it does hope now is that TR will at least earn enough money to pay for its monthly expenses.
But that's not looking good, either. If TR continues to generate income at the same rate as the first quarter, it looks like it will earn $7M (dollars). NcSoft Seoul has already said that they need between $10-15M to pay the game's expenses for the year (Conference call).
I have never said that TR is doing super duper good.
Here is the reason this whole snooze fest of a thread started anyway:
1) A game being in a discount bin proves that the game has failed.
I argued that this proves nothing, as far as very successful titles like EQ2 can be found in the "discount bin" and LOTRO can be bought off the official site for 10 dollars. Of course, no one will say that EQ2 and LOTRO are unsuccessful. Also, games like EVE do not even have boxes, and yet no one would say that EVE is in poor shape.
2) The game has not made a huge profit, if at all. That does not mean a game has failed. If the game failed, it would be gone. Some games, like EQ2 and EVE had really rough starts and have taken years to get to where they are. But there were times when people said they were in horrible shape, and some still do.
Also, if you want to believe that everything the company says has "spin" on it, go ahead. The proof is in the pudding: the game is still there, they have said it's not performing where they want it but they talked about seasonal drops and how normal that is, and how the game is performing equally as well as some of their other titles.
Of course, that could be lies.
Strange though, the game isn't canceled. It's there, waiting to be played.
It will be a "failure" when it ceases to exist. The game company would phase it out.
Of course, we here at these silly little forums that are read by the same few K people know more about MMO's then they do. After all, they only make BILLIONS doing what they do.
I mean, shoot, we have BLOGS here. Obviously NCsoft doesn't know who they are dealing with.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro
Blogs--the TR forums are also dying out. Have you visited tr.stratics, lately? It was never very busy, but the last update to the news section was March 10 and you can't access the discussions anymore. This TR forum, here, is getting slower and slower. Planettr is the busiest remaining forum, and it is also slowing down. I'd say that is as big an indication of lack of interest--as seeing the boxes marked down on ebay for $5. (Where do these guys get these boxes to sell, anyway?)
Every time someone brings up a valid counterpoint, you say "I never said the game was doing super duper good." Why? Absolutely no one in the history of mankind has said that it was, not even the devs.
And why are you still here if you don't even play the game?
Let me address your latest points, one of which actually has some merit.
1) I addressed this when you brought it up earlier, but you conveniently ignored it, so here it is again: Everquest II and LOTRO can be found for bargain bin prices. 'Tis true, my good sir, but you are forgetting that the former has a dozen expansions and bundles (which increases the playerbase) and the latter is - was? - the second most popular MMO after WoW, so it has a huge playerbase, around a million subscribers, paying $10-15 a month. Tabula Rasa at its peak had aound 150k subscribers. Lemme know if you're having trouble with the arithmetic.
Eve Online does not have boxes - you say that like it's a bad thing. For a super-niche game like Eve, it would probably be a bad thing, as having boxes and retail distribution greatly increases operational costs.
Earlier you mentioned that the Passion of the Christ movie must be a failure since it's in the $5 bin at Walmart - stop being an idiot. Movies unlike MMOs make profit in just about every way that you can imagine: at the theater, DVD sales and rentals, digital downloads, cable television, and that's before all special editions, reissues, unrated editions, and new video formats like Blu-ray. MMOs only generate revenue through subscriptions. That's it.
2) "The game has not made a huge profit, if at all" - a huge understatement, that. That's not even the worst part; if they broke even, it would be one thing, but they have already sunk millions into this project, and that loss of potential revenue greatly limits future development. If your work cost you millions of dollars of debt, would you continue to dedicate resources to it? I don't know when you quit or if you've ever played the game at all, so here's what they've added since launch, from the mouth of an actual player: an auction house and two or three new instances, and a skill bug fix that caused an exodus of players. That's it.
If you consider an MMO failing only when it has shut down, you can count them all on one hand. And guess what? Very, very few MMOs actually shut down because the cost of keeping it running is marginal compared to how much it cost developing it, so if they shut it down now, they would never be able to recoup these costs, whereas keeping it running will allow them to do so in a few years. One of these special few that were shut down was NCsoft's latst game, Auto Assault, and TR even uses its engine! You can bet your ass that NCsoft will do whatever it can to keep TR alive to avoid further damaging its reputation. In fact, they've already started: their games don't come with paper manuals anymore, especially not the thick, glossy ones for Guild Wars.
You should count your lucky stars that you're not running the company, as you would have surely run it into the ground by now with your notions of "these silly little forums." (And, honey, for the last time, no one makes billions. Not unless you're Warren Buffet.) Because here's how forums work: John Regular hears about this new game coming out from the creator of his favorite video game, Ultima, and asks people if they've heard about it. Billy Blue Eyes says, "Heard of it? I've played it. It's a fun game, but I wouldn't pay $15 a month for it." John Regular's friend asks, "So? Have you tried out the new game by the creator of Ultma yet?" John Regular says, "I think I'll stick with WoW."
A few points to clarify:
a) I don't care who is right or wrong about numbers. I simply quoted some stuff I googled within 5 minutes. That does not matter, and has nothing to do with the original argument. I never said I was right or wrong, and still don't pretend to be either. I, like you, am going from my gut.
Here's how little I care: I am totally wrong about numbers, and you are totally right. There, have a smile.
b) I keep coming here because between working on projects, walking my dogs, eating and cleaning, I have time to look at a forum and post for 5 minutes. It's not hard. It's not even multi-tasking. I just refresh the page or check it once in a while.
c) Think for a second about games that have been described as "failures". I play Vanguard, for chrissakes. I think anyone that has followed MMO's for a while (10 years for me) knows how VG performed. Now, look at the recent (last 3 or 4 months) surge in player base and updating going on. SOE talks about new players coming in, and is not only updating but has plans for more updates and is doing live events.
Is Vanguard a failure? Try telling that the thousands that play it and to my listeners.
d) SWG was labeled a "failure" and still is. It is not a failure. EQ2 was labeled a "failure" and still is by some, and is not a failure. LOTRO was even laughed at when they lost a good deal of players (a natural occurence, ask any MMO company, due to season, trial perdiods ending and other factors) but is LOTRO a failure?
e) I have been saying "I have not claimed that TR is as successful (super duper) as the company would have liked. No MMO ever is. I said that to "cut off at the pass" those that might say that the opposite of failure is success. There are more shades of grey in there, and TR is in the "attempting to succeed, give it time" phase.
If you are claiming TR is failure, then again I say that you are wrong. I will wait unti lthe COMPANY calls it a failure. If you think every MMO has total success withing a year or even two, then you have not paid attention to the last 10 years of online gaming.
Now, go compare all these "TR is a failure" posts to the last 10 years of posts saying the same thing about some of our most successful MMO's.
You're right, too much work.
Beau
Listen to the Spouse Aggro podcast at spouseaggro.com. Twitter: spouseaggro