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xfire shows AoC numbers decreasing :(
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Id have to say shadowbane is on that level of technical skills. In some cases a smart level 50 can kill a 75. Heck Ive even seen smart pvp'rs solo a group of people.
This is no different than WoW really. Yeah WoW makes you spend some time getting your gear but if once you get it the first time it is very easy to maintain top end gear. WoW arena PvP takes every bit as much skill as GW PvP. Throw in the fact that a poorly geared player can skillfully kill a better geared player and well this holds basically no water at all. WoW PvP takes way more skill than AOC PvP because it has a lot more counter abilities and you can't 1 hit kill people. WoW and GW are pretty much equal.
Anyway xfire numbers are still dropping 10% per week so the game is still losing players. Maybe the buddy keys will finally level it off.
looks like it is consistently below 20K hours now. 19683 on the 23rd for a 2500 hour loss from the 23rd. Wonder how long it will be before it will be below 10K? Only about a 9% drop from last week though. Guess only the hard core fanbois left playing now, or more fanbois making Xfire accounts because of this thread. take your pick.
I miss DAoC
How many surveys actually hit the bulk of a population? It's always a percentage of a given population that gives statistics for the whole, a representation. Even though I don't use xfire, it's populous that exists for AoC does show a trend. How accurate that trend is really a guess without real data from Funcom, which we'll never get.
I was just as excited about this game before release, preordering, playing beta, and finally joining in once it went live. I want it to be a great game. Unfortunately, it should have been a great game before they released it. Every patch since seems like an effort by Funcom to remove fun from the game.
Until this game matures, I won't be around to be disappointed any further. Others will learn why on their own time I'm sure.
Barfman - The superhero people are reluctant to call upon.
I think AoC is doing somewhat better then the xfire numbers show.... The reason I say that is the xfire numbers show the average player doing 4-5 hours per night. That is a pretty long time. I'd think that these types of players would run into the end game brokenness faster then casual players. So I think that the casual players probably aren't getting to the bad stuff fast and might take a few months to actually get dissastisfied and leave. Of course by then maybe enough will be fixed that they will not actually leave...
Just a thought
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Ethion
So when Xfire number for AoC look bad it's because they are supposed to accurately reflect player behaviour, but when they look slightly better it's because either only 'Hard core Fanbois' are left, or AoC players are deliberately creating accounts because of this lame thread.
With that sort of conspiracy theory logic you could believe in anything. Also, isn't 'Hardcore Fanbois' an oxymoron? I thought the 'Hatebois' believed that all AoC 'Fanbois' were incapable of being 'Hardcore'.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
I play Aoc and have no clue what Xfire is and I could care less. there are always players on when i log on and theres always some 1 to group with. So I dont think it matters what this X fire thing says, And yes there are less players on now then at lauch but that was going to happen no matter what , This game is not for every one and it does have some things to work on.
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
So when Xfire number for AoC look bad it's because they are supposed to accurately reflect player behaviour, but when they look slightly better it's because either only 'Hard core Fanbois' are left, or AoC players are deliberately creating accounts because of this lame thread.
With that sort of conspiracy theory logic you could believe in anything. Also, isn't 'Hardcore Fanbois' an oxymoron? I thought the 'Hatebois' believed that all AoC 'Fanbois' were incapable of being 'Hardcore'.
Look up the word trend, then look up the word analyze. Now put them together in a sentence. When the percentages in a trend start to change anyone who analyzes it looks for the cause. There are possible explanations I can come up with.
1) more AoC users are using XFire
2) The people left really like AoC
3) FC's management of the game has improved and with each patch the game is getting better
I have my doubt's about number 3 because with every patch the number of this game (patch) sucks posts on the official board and all the unofficial boards grows. Lots of posts on lack of population also.
In any game once it reaches a certain point the population tends to level off to where just hard core fans are the majority playing. Box sales have dropped due to word of mouth off now so the input of new players has slacked off. Therefore combining that with a bit of common sense I feel it is safe to say that number 2 is the most reasonable reason . I have always felt that the XFire users were a bit more hard core PvP oriented gamers and therefore would be more likley to hang in there whereas more casual gamers would suffer through a couple of bad patches and bail out and return to their previous game. Just my opinion here but I think the XFire figures have always been on the positive side in comparison to overall population decreases.
Now the question is how many of the hard core fans bought three month game cards or six month subs on release of the game and therefore feel obligated to play because of money invested and can Funcom keep them happy enough to play beyond that? Box sales alone won't mean crap if they cannot get the average purchaser to play beyond the initial 30 days.
All in all this has been a fun release to watch. Much better than Vanguard or D&L, because it is still a bit unpredictable and there is a small small chance that FC will pull it's head from it's nether regions and get it's act together.
I miss DAoC
X fire numbers also show that using them to try to make any sense doesnt make any sense. did that make sense?
I'm not a no life that sits in front of his computer all day long, I'm an intern that sits in front of his computer all day long.
and what is your reasoning by that? They show trends just as political polls or Neilson ratings show trends. I would never try and project actual population figures from them but they do show which direction the population is moving and at what rate.
I miss DAoC
Sir that post was priceless, thank you.
I'm not a no life that sits in front of his computer all day long, I'm an intern that sits in front of his computer all day long.
So when Xfire number for AoC look bad it's because they are supposed to accurately reflect player behaviour, but when they look slightly better it's because either only 'Hard core Fanbois' are left, or AoC players are deliberately creating accounts because of this lame thread.
With that sort of conspiracy theory logic you could believe in anything. Also, isn't 'Hardcore Fanbois' an oxymoron? I thought the 'Hatebois' believed that all AoC 'Fanbois' were incapable of being 'Hardcore'.
Look up the word trend, then look up the word analyze. Now put them together in a sentence. When the percentages in a trend start to change anyone who analyzes it looks for the cause. There are possible explanations I can come up with.
1) more AoC users are using XFire
2) The people left really like AoC
3) FC's management of the game has improved and with each patch the game is getting better
I have my doubt's about number 3 because with every patch the number of this game (patch) sucks posts on the official board and all the unofficial boards grows. Lots of posts on lack of population also.
In any game once it reaches a certain point the population tends to level off to where just hard core fans are the majority playing. Box sales have dropped due to word of mouth off now so the input of new players has slacked off. Therefore combining that with a bit of common sense I feel it is safe to say that number 2 is the most reasonable reason . I have always felt that the XFire users were a bit more hard core PvP oriented gamers and therefore would be more likley to hang in there whereas more casual gamers would suffer through a couple of bad patches and bail out and return to their previous game. Just my opinion here but I think the XFire figures have always been on the positive side in comparison to overall population decreases.
Now the question is how many of the hard core fans bought three month game cards or six month subs on release of the game and therefore feel obligated to play because of money invested and can Funcom keep them happy enough to play beyond that? Box sales alone won't mean crap if they cannot get the average purchaser to play beyond the initial 30 days.
All in all this has been a fun release to watch. Much better than Vanguard or D&L, because it is still a bit unpredictable and there is a small small chance that FC will pull it's head from it's nether regions and get it's act together.
Great post!
Aside from that in my opinion 'Casual Gamers' are likely to be more rather than less tolerant than the 'Xfire or Hardcore Community' & that I wouldn't read too much into biased posts about 'Low Population' made by people who hate the game, I think I pretty much agree with the rest!
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
Great post!
Aside from that in my opinion 'Casual Gamers' are likely to be more rather than less tolerant than the 'Xfire or Hardcore Community' & that I wouldn't read too much into biased posts about 'Low Population' made by people who hate the game, I think I pretty much agree with the rest!
Just out of curiosity why do you feel as if a casual gamer would be more liley to use XFire.
I think it would be just the opposite because of a lot of reasons but the easiet to point out is look at Xfire Eve players vs Xfire LoTRO players. Most would agree that LoTRO has at least equal and in most peoples estimates more active subs than EvE yet EvE beats LoTRO on Xfire hours by 30%. LoTRO is by far the more casual of the 2 games.
Also few really casual players really give a crap on how many hours they play or for that matter have enough machine or bandwidth to take the performance hit that XFire use causes. Not to mention that a lot of casuals have never heard of Xfire.
As far as the forums go. The official ones I do give a bit more credit to since only active subscribers can post and couple that with FC's over the top moderation practices and you seem to have a pretty dissatisfied community. Even the fanbois posts of "my server has plenty of people" have dropped off and a lot of entire guilds are leaving or having membership declines judging by their guild forums and you seem to have a mass migration away from the game in general.
My guess is that just to keep the players left, FC should be starting to do server merges soon. Playing on low pop servers makes the game look worse than it is and less fun also.
I miss DAoC
Xfire stats are a sample.
It's like a poll.
Interesting fact now is that these figures show exactly what OTHER sources show:
take for instance the hourly updates sales of Conan on Amazon.com.
OUT of the top 30 in PC sales, but MOST importantly the Conan susbscription cards are OUT of the top 500(!!!) PC(!) sales on Amazon.com.
Saying that subscription cards don't count, because people pay otherwise... well HOW is it possible that Wow Sub cards were always in the top 15.
So Xfire shows the number decreasing, Amazon shows the number decreasing and ... I see stock everywhere on the shelves.
Most of all: NO new press releases anymore of FunCom, meaning sales and playings took a very hard hit in July. No longer Conan is a top selling game..... just like ALL those other MMORPG's launched in the last 2 years.
I've seen fanboys here of Conan who even admit now they don't play the game anymore and again are now waiting for ... the next big thing. (like always I'd say).
HYPE sold the game and people wanted to like it SOOO much. The game failed completely on playability though and will further decline ... this automn and winter.
Great post!
Aside from that in my opinion 'Casual Gamers' are likely to be more rather than less tolerant than the 'Xfire or Hardcore Community' & that I wouldn't read too much into biased posts about 'Low Population' made by people who hate the game, I think I pretty much agree with the rest!
Just out of curiosity why do you feel as if a casual gamer would be more liley to use XFire.
I think it would be just the opposite because of a lot of reasons but the easiet to point out is look at Xfire Eve players vs Xfire LoTRO players. Most would agree that LoTRO has at least equal and in most peoples estimates more active subs than EvE yet EvE beats LoTRO on Xfire hours by 30%. LoTRO is by far the more casual of the 2 games.
Also few really casual players really give a crap on how many hours they play or for that matter have enough machine or bandwidth to take the performance hit that XFire use causes. Not to mention that a lot of casuals have never heard of Xfire.
As far as the forums go. The official ones I do give a bit more credit to since only active subscribers can post and couple that with FC's over the top moderation practices and you seem to have a pretty dissatisfied community. Even the fanbois posts of "my server has plenty of people" have dropped off and a lot of entire guilds are leaving or having membership declines judging by their guild forums and you seem to have a mass migration away from the game in general.
My guess is that just to keep the players left, FC should be starting to do server merges soon. Playing on low pop servers makes the game look worse than it is and less fun also.
Whilst I can still browse forums & work at the same time, on weekdays I only have at most a couple of hours free to play MMOs usually after 10pm, but often don't get to play at all. After an initial short trial with a 'Necro' in Tortage, I switched to playing a 'Demonologist' and am finally nearing Level 50. Even though I don't get to play that often, I still think it is good value for money as I can play a whole month for 'nine pounds' which would barely cover the cost of one round of drinks in London. As far as hobbies go it is fairly cheap & I am sure many people feel the same way.
As far as I understand it, most of the complaints regard lack of content especially at the higher levels. So far though, I have always had loads to do & there are always seem to be new things to see. I have read many posts by other casual players who say the same thing & are reasonably happy that Funcom are adding new content faster than they can play it. I agree that the content should have been there at the start, but it doesn't seem to bother 'Casual' players as much who are taking their time levelling.
I haven't been affected by any of the memory/hardware issues but not because I have some 'Super High Tech Rig', quite the opposite. My machine is still on XP & whilst I did upgrade my graphics card to an 8800GTS & up the memory to 3Gb last year, it is otherwise fairly mediochre by today's standards. Maybe this is what gives me immunity to the memory/hardware issues or maybe it is all Vista's fault, I don't know.
If 'Casual' players don't burn out the content as quickly & 'Hardcore' players are more likely to run out & also be more affected or less tolerant of memory/hardware issues, then that would make 'Casual' gamers less likely to quit than 'Hardcore' players.
As for who uses 'Xfire', I don't think many 'Casual ' gamers use it at all. It seems to be some sort of combined 'Forum Signature Tropy' & 'Chatting Tool' mainly used by people who play for extremely long sessions & probably like raiding.
This is why I have said all along that 'Xfire' figures are not representative. If you look at the average gaming hours per day for 'Xfire Users', most people with full time jobs don't have the time to play like that or wouldn't want to. That being the case, the behaviour of that minority is not that useful at predicting everyone else.
Just my opinion.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
Admittedly Game Cards for AoC have a lesser impact then WoW. Simply put AoC was supposed to be a mature content game with the majority of players being over 18, (can't say what the future holds with Funcom reducing the mature content). Most 18+ have a credit card to pay for time and don't need to buy Game Cards. WoW on the otherhand is a game for all ages.(If you let your kids play with that much violence)
Waiting for the next thing
I know a good number of people that DON'T use Xfire. As it's stated about 1,000 times... it's not the best thing to judge.
But it is better than judging based on say the number of people you see near the trader in old tarantia... which many people seem fine with using.
Nobody is saying xfire is perfect but if it is trending down over that large of a sample it most likely is trending down overall. The stock is down, xfire is down, the number of instances in the game at once is down, the forums have slowed down. I mean you have to really be trying to ignore signs to think the game isn't losing players.
Never did I say that Funcom was losing players. And I understand that they removed the /search feature that showed all the players on each server.
So we take what we can get.
Did Funcom shoot themselves in the foot? Of course... is the hole too deep to get out of? Possibly. Do any of us know for sure? Nope, only time is the true answer here.
But until that glourious moment, AoC is not what they promissed. Which is truly sad.
But it is better than judging based on say the number of people you see near the trader in old tarantia... which many people seem fine with using.
Nobody is saying xfire is perfect but if it is trending down over that large of a sample it most likely is trending down overall. The stock is down, xfire is down, the number of instances in the game at once is down, the forums have slowed down. I mean you have to really be trying to ignore signs to think the game isn't losing players.
The problem with sentences that start 'Nobody is saying X is perfect but" is that they usually end with claiming that is somehow OK to infer virtually because of that.
Nobody is claiming that the game isn't losing players, but Xfire is unrepresentative, lots of stocks are down, there are plenty of other reasons for having less instances & since a lot of forum activity was from trolls, maybe it's good that is down too.
I agree with you that the game isn't doing well & that Funcom will have their work cut out to turn it around, but there isn't any real data available & everything else is just unreliable speculation.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
Well 2.5 weeks ago I had server numbers to work with and the primetime population had dropped 40% over the previous month which more or less completely mirrored the xfire playtime drop. I think the xfire trend is accurate even if the actual numbers aren't perfect. As long as xfire keeps dropping in my mind the game is still losing players.
I don't think game card sales are an accurate estimate of AoC players either. Since the game is targeted to the mature player, more debit/cc are being used. WoW has many younger players who probably don't have a cc/debit card so they buy game cards. Not to mention WoW game cards are probably fairly common gifts too. With 10 million subs worldwide I'm sure everyone knows someone who plays.
By fall we should have a better idea of how the game is fairing. Right now it's early stages of a new launch. There are some people that may want to wait for bugs to get worked out or for better PC to run it. Not to mention when it comes available for the Xbox 360, you'll see a spike in players.
Looks like the trend is continuing downward another week. WTH happen to the weekend spike that we normally see?
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Ethion
Heres the thing though. You're taking a sample group. Asking them if they like something, then repeatedly asking them if they like it over the course of months. if the sample group changes from like to dislike, it's a pretty good representation of the whole.
That's really what XFire shows. It shows that of this couple thousand sample. People liked the game at first, and steadily they all left the game or stopped playing.
That's a pretty good representation of what's happening in AoC
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I live to fight, and fight to live.