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xfire shows AoC numbers decreasing :(
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Nobody is disputing that the trend is probably downwards, it's just that if you want to estimate patterns in a general population it is absolutely vital to choose a representative sample. The reason for this is that a minority unrepresentative sample has little effect on overall statistics & can therefore easily behave in a completely different manner.
Just think about what you are saying.
It's only a problem if the demographic of the sample has significantly changed between now and release.
That is like saying that provided their demographic sample hasn't changed, Scientologists are a valid indicator of who might win the next American election.
It doesn't matter how often or clearly you try to explain the issues to the 'Hatebois' obsessed with Xfire data though, they will never accept the arguments because they enjoy behaving like a lynch mob far too much.
Like it or not there is very little real data available & for those more interested in just being destructive, the Xfire data is just easy troll fodder, hence why they refuse to give it up.
Definitely xfire numbers are valid to show a trend. For several reasons. First AoC xfire users wouldn't be different from other xfire players (who mainly play other games like wow or eqII or whatever). Secondly there is no reason for them to have changed behavior since release of the game.
So what CAN we conclude? There is a TREND saying the game is in trouble. This demographic group can only show the trend. It can not be used to actually predict the number of retention subs and it can not be used for an accurate percentage value of how many quit the game.
Sure there are people who will try to say something otherwise, but fact remain that the trend for the game is going down.
Now if you couple the knowledge from xfire with what is being written on the official forums here and other places, it is easy to see how strong this trend is. Even on the official forums there are threads being flooded with negativity. More than any other mmo. Sure you have to read between the lines and understand that it is against FC's forum policy to make "I quit" posts, so they are locked and deleted and they ban people who are critical and still despite all that they still can't stop people from posting negative things.
So while we can't prove scientifically how many subs there are left we certainly can use xfire from a statistical point of view to show the game is in serious decline.
No you can only use it to show that Xfire Aoc numbers are in serious decline, but since all you seem to be interested in is seeing AoC die followed by mass dancing on it's grave, you prefer to claim otherwise.
Observing 'trends' in unpresentative subsets is like when 'Homer Simpson bought pumpkins in October with a plan to selling them of in January because they seemed to be doing so well'.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
It's not arguing semantics, it's arguing about statistics which is far worse.
I agree with you that the game doesn't seem to be doing well & that Funcom aren't exactly making the situation better at the moment, which is a shame because I still think it has a lot of potential.
It's important to distinguish though between legitimate discussion & ghoulish speculation by people that are desperate to see the game fail.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
It's not arguing semantics, it's arguing about statistics which is far worse.
I agree with you that the game doesn't seem to be doing well & that Funcom aren't exactly making the situation better at the moment, which is a shame because I still think it has a lot of potential.
It's important to distinguish though between legitimate discussion & ghoulish speculation by people that are desperate to see the game fail.
You are speculating yourself, think for a second, saying "im arguing statistics and the Xfire numbers dont mean anything" doesnt make you better than the guy claiming they mean something. Also judging by your previous post, in every single discussion you come running in defense of Funcom and AoC, and your arguments are simply shallow, which doesnt help you very much.
It's not arguing semantics, it's arguing about statistics which is far worse.
I agree with you that the game doesn't seem to be doing well & that Funcom aren't exactly making the situation better at the moment, which is a shame because I still think it has a lot of potential.
It's important to distinguish though between legitimate discussion & ghoulish speculation by people that are desperate to see the game fail.
You are speculating yourself, think for a second, saying "im arguing statistics and the Xfire numbers dont mean anything" doesnt make you better than the guy claiming they mean something. Also judging by your previous post, in every single discussion you come running in defense of Funcom and AoC, and your arguments are simply shallow, which doesnt help you very much.
LOL, I don't come running to the defense of AoC or Funcom, I just find the endless trolling annoying.
As for the statistics, they speak for themselves & I couldn't care less whether you think they 'help me' or not, I am just giving an alternative view point.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
Now where did you come up with all that jazz?
I miss DAoC
Now where did you come up with all that jazz?
Theres a big freakin barb chick on the front of the MMO home page when you log in, and it says "death has never looked so hot" Ironically you can only see about half the chick, guess they didnt have time to complete the whole thing...But she has potential right?
You'd better be careful with sentences like that, if you wish to be considered as a neutral fan of the game (your words), instead of looking a bit fanboish.
I personally would love to see AOC come out of the crap it is in atm, since I have the original copy. I could re-subscribe anytime, but first I really need to be convinced now that it's actually finished.
On these boards however, defendants of the game are in a small minority, and word like yours above will not help to make either the fans or the game more charming.
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
You'd better be careful with sentences like that, if you wish to be considered as a neutral fan of the game (your words), instead of looking a bit fanboish.
I personally would love to see AOC come out of the crap it is in atm, since I have the original copy. I could re-subscribe anytime, but first I really need to be convinced now that it's actually finished.
On these boards however, defendants of the game are in a small minority, and word like yours above will not help to make either the fans or the game more charming.
DB
LOL, thanks for acknowledging that these boards aren't representative either.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
You'd better be careful with sentences like that, if you wish to be considered as a neutral fan of the game (your words), instead of looking a bit fanboish.
I personally would love to see AOC come out of the crap it is in atm, since I have the original copy. I could re-subscribe anytime, but first I really need to be convinced now that it's actually finished.
On these boards however, defendants of the game are in a small minority, and word like yours above will not help to make either the fans or the game more charming.
DB
LOL, thanks for acknowledging that these boards aren't representative either.
I think you missed my point totally, and just made your rep worse
Nowhere did I indicate that these boards are a representation of anything. I just said that there are hardly any "hardcore defendants" left for AOC here. I don't know if this represents anything or not, and you don't know it either. Still, you act like someone who *does* know.
See the problem now?
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
Nobody is disputing that the trend is probably downwards, it's just that if you want to estimate patterns in a general population it is absolutely vital to choose a representative sample. The reason for this is that a minority unrepresentative sample has little effect on overall statistics & can therefore easily behave in a completely different manner.
This is an interesting line to note. A representative sample.
I have recently been polling players for how much time they play a game compared to how much they think the game is good.
A large "representative" sample of players who think AoC is "good" seem to not be able to put more than 10-20 hours into it (a number play maybe 1 or 2 hours a day).
This to me represents a player who is not passionate about a newly released game. Due to the amount of time they put in, they also do not give the game much time to open it's glaring holes and bugs to it's player base. One player even noted he plays 3-4 hours a day usually, yet cannot play more than an hour due to a "glitch" in Conan. So even if someone wanted to play an extended amount of time, they are blocked from that entertainment.
And worse, Funcom advertised this to the PvP player, a player who will do whatever it takes to get to the top and score well. All they got were a group of casual players who think an hour or two of a game is entertainment.
Xfire is a demanding group, and you can tell by their dedication to specific titles, and the fact remains.
There is NO dedication to AoC.
Nobody is disputing that the trend is probably downwards, it's just that if you want to estimate patterns in a general population it is absolutely vital to choose a representative sample. The reason for this is that a minority unrepresentative sample has little effect on overall statistics & can therefore easily behave in a completely different manner.
This is an interesting line to note. A representative sample.
I have recently been polling players for how much time they play a game compared to how much they think the game is good.
A large "representative" sample of players who think AoC is "good" seem to not be able to put more than 10-20 hours into it (a number play maybe 1 or 2 hours a day).
This to me represents a player who is not passionate about a newly released game. Due to the amount of time they put in, they also do not give the game much time to open it's glaring holes and bugs to it's player base. One player even noted he plays 3-4 hours a day usually, yet cannot play more than an hour due to a "glitch" in Conan. So even if someone wanted to play an extended amount of time, they are blocked from that entertainment.
And worse, Funcom advertised this to the PvP player, a player who will do whatever it takes to get to the top and score well. All they got were a group of casual players who think an hour or two of a game is entertainment.
Xfire is a demanding group, and you can tell by their dedication to specific titles, and the fact remains.
There is NO dedication to AoC.
As has been said many times, AoC is more appealing to casual players but that isn't quite the same as 'undedicated' in the way you seem to describe it.
I cannot play more than 1 or 2 hours a day either, but that has everything to do with RL & nothing to do with my opinions about AoC or any other MMO for that matter.
To be honest I find this talk of 'dedication' a bit odd, it's a game not a religion. There are far more important things in life & few adults have the time to spend more than 2 hours every single day playing any MMO.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
Slightly off topic but imo even the most casual of players will start to fall in the cracks before FC can shore them up. <shrug>
someone brings up an xfire argument and the comunity says "xfire does not represent the entire comunity and therefore means nothing" someone brings up funcoms stock and they say "the stock markets on a down trend" forget the fact that xfire and the price of funcom stock match each others decline almost perfectly.
There is no issue being dedicated to a game. MMO's are unique in their need to accomplish goals. You progress based on those accomplishments. If you feel no need to dedicate some time to an MMO, there is always "Second Life" which does not require any accomplishment or goal, but just to exist.
The real gist of this "time" allotment deals with the fact that this "Casual" player will not see major issues or concerns in a game they hardly ever log into. I can read over and over how people state "I see no problems in AoC", yet they log in exactly one to two hours. That is hardly time to "Accomplish" goals, so how will the many issues present themselves in that case.
I know on the forums it has been said that AoC is appealing to the Casual crowd, yet it is not how it was marketed (PvP and Sieges and Raids are not the product for a "Casual" player), and for a "Casual" player, what reward is there in the game. No one has anything to show for that Casual play schedule. Items mean nothing, there is nothing special in the crafting, the Trader has nothing of value. So, based on this, I fail to see why a "Casual" person would even step foot into this game. The "Casual" player cannot look unique as the armor is all the same, there is no housing, or other activities for the Casual.
If anything, I suggest Casuals play LOTRO before AoC. Why? Housing, Fishing, Deeds (rewards), Crafting that actually makes something, minimal raids. THAT is a "Casual" game.
Finally, as to dedication. You seem to be dedicated to pumping up a game here on these forums that really is not a well done MMO at all in my opinion. All it offers is a neat combat system (that was gimped last patch) and gorgeous graphics, that are getting screwed over thanks to patches slowing down loads and causing graphical glitches and bugs. Maybe that dedication would be well spent in a better "Casual" game like LOTRO.
There is no issue being dedicated to a game. MMO's are unique in their need to accomplish goals. You progress based on those accomplishments. If you feel no need to dedicate some time to an MMO, there is always "Second Life" which does not require any accomplishment or goal, but just to exist.
The real gist of this "time" allotment deals with the fact that this "Casual" player will not see major issues or concerns in a game they hardly ever log into. I can read over and over how people state "I see no problems in AoC", yet they log in exactly one to two hours. That is hardly time to "Accomplish" goals, so how will the many issues present themselves in that case.
I know on the forums it has been said that AoC is appealing to the Casual crowd, yet it is not how it was marketed (PvP and Sieges and Raids are not the product for a "Casual" player), and for a "Casual" player, what reward is there in the game. No one has anything to show for that Casual play schedule. Items mean nothing, there is nothing special in the crafting, the Trader has nothing of value. So, based on this, I fail to see why a "Casual" person would even step foot into this game. The "Casual" player cannot look unique as the armor is all the same, there is no housing, or other activities for the Casual.
If anything, I suggest Casuals play LOTRO before AoC. Why? Housing, Fishing, Deeds (rewards), Crafting that actually makes something, minimal raids. THAT is a "Casual" game.
Finally, as to dedication. You seem to be dedicated to pumping up a game here on these forums that really is not a well done MMO at all in my opinion. All it offers is a neat combat system (that was gimped last patch) and gorgeous graphics, that are getting screwed over thanks to patches slowing down loads and causing graphical glitches and bugs. Maybe that dedication would be well spent in a better "Casual" game like LOTRO.
LOL, so basically in your opinion MMOs should be reserved for people who don't have to work for a living & everyone else can just go & play 'Second Life' which isn't even a a game at all, just a glorified chatting tool with 3D Avators. Well thanks for that, you are of course entitled to your opinion.
As for me being dedicated to pumping up the game, it called 'BAW Syndrome, "Bored at Work"
. Many of my posts are critical of the game, but for professional reasons I find misuse of statistics particularly irritating, understand now?
Not everything in life is tribal warfare, so why try to reduce AoC to 'Hatebois Vs Fanbois'?
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
LOL, so basically in your opinion MMOs should be reserved for people who don't have to work for a living & everyone else can just go & play 'Second Life' which isn't even a a game at all, just a glorified chatting tool with 3D Avators. Well thanks for that, you are of course entitled to your opinion.
As for me being dedicated to pumping up the game, it called 'BAW Syndrome, "Bored at Work"
. Many of my posts are critical of the game, but for professional reasons I find misuse of statistics particularly irritating, understand now?
Not everything in life is tribal warfare, so why try to reduce AoC to 'Hatebois Vs Fanbois'?
Again, taking statements out of context and using them to your own gain. The comment was specifically geared toward you. If you feel no need to dedicate yourself to working toward a goal, then why play a "goals" oriented game...period.
I have a job, a wife, a child, yet, I like to play a game for a reason. I either play to win it (Gears of War, Halo, Devil May Cry) or to be entertained by making advances and enjoying those worlds (EQ2, Guild Wars, WoW)
If a game prevents me from having fun or advancing in a proper manner, then why would I continue? With AoC gimping overall combat to make it slower, their attempts to remove XP from gray quests (which they back tracked on due to outcry from the community) and having bosses one shotting you, and with problems like the gray map OOM error, the falling through the world, no goals like items, deeds, etc.... This leads to a game of frustration.
As to the misuse of statistics, this is not the case. MY job is statistics. And to not look at Xfire as a piece of the puzzle is to close your eyes to the overall problem. Anyone can forget people are starving overseas as long as they put their fingers in their ears.
Remove those fingers and look at the overall picture. Xfire is one piece, yet, there are reviews which have as time progressed had lower scores, tons of posts on MANY forums, not just one with commenst of people leaving. It has even gone to the point that speeches by Gaute is the brunt of many a joke
(Noob Comic)
Laugh at statistics all you want. Guess who else laughed at statistics? Hellgate :London...and we see what happened there. (Note: on Xfire, they started at #6...now they are #61 and falling...)
LOL, so basically in your opinion MMOs should be reserved for people who don't have to work for a living & everyone else can just go & play 'Second Life' which isn't even a a game at all, just a glorified chatting tool with 3D Avators. Well thanks for that, you are of course entitled to your opinion.
As for me being dedicated to pumping up the game, it called 'BAW Syndrome, "Bored at Work"
. Many of my posts are critical of the game, but for professional reasons I find misuse of statistics particularly irritating, understand now?
Not everything in life is tribal warfare, so why try to reduce AoC to 'Hatebois Vs Fanbois'?
Again, taking statements out of context and using them to your own gain. The comment was specifically geared toward you. If you feel no need to dedicate yourself to working toward a goal, then why play a "goals" oriented game...period.
I have a job, a wife, a child, yet, I like to play a game for a reason. I either play to win it (Gears of War, Halo, Devil May Cry) or to be entertained by making advances and enjoying those worlds (EQ2, Guild Wars, WoW)
If a game prevents me from having fun or advancing in a proper manner, then why would I continue? With AoC gimping overall combat to make it slower, their attempts to remove XP from gray quests (which they back tracked on due to outcry from the community) and having bosses one shotting you, and with problems like the gray map OOM error, the falling through the world, no goals like items, deeds, etc.... This leads to a game of frustration.
As to the misuse of statistics, this is not the case. MY job is statistics. And to not look at Xfire as a piece of the puzzle is to close your eyes to the overall problem. Anyone can forget people are starving overseas as long as they put their fingers in their ears.
Remove those fingers and look at the overall picture. Xfire is one piece, yet, there are reviews which have as time progressed had lower scores, tons of posts on MANY forums, not just one with commenst of people leaving. It has even gone to the point that speeches by Gaute is the brunt of many a joke
(Noob Comic)
Laugh at statistics all you want. Guess who else laughed at statistics? Hellgate :London...and we see what happened there. (Note: on Xfire, they started at #6...now they are #61 and falling...)
Since I also work in statistics, in particular profiling & lifestyle demographics, it looks like we actually have at least one thing in common.
Yes, I have seen that 'Noob Comic' link before on another thread & even thanked the person that posted it because I thought it was very funny.
When it comes to taking things out of context to suit your own view, you seem obsessed with the idea that I am fanatically supporting the game to the point that I am in denial about the fact that the game isn't doing very well. I don't fanatically support anything & only play AoC because for the time being I find it enjoyable. It does annoy me though that so many people seem to be pursuing an irrational Vendetta against the game rather than just finding something else to do.
I find it amusing that you think it requires more than two hours a day to play a goal oriented game. Just because you set limits on how much commitment people should show toward an MMO, that doesn't mean everyone else has to agree with you. In your survey on another thread, the first band was '1 -3' & the second was '4 - 6' with there even being another two bands after that, LOL.
The reason why MMOs are more popular now is precisely because they have moved away from requiring fanaticism & become much more 'casual friendly'. Most people don't have the time for what you describe & the game developers have correctly recognised this lucrative market, much to the chagrin of those that complain MMOs just aren't 'hardcore' any more.
Not sure what the quote about 'Starving Children Overseas' was supposed to prove, must be those fingers in my ears, but it still doesn't make Xfire representive, LOL.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
Some other interesting stats from xfire. These are approximate numbers doing the math in my head.
AOC the average player plays around 250 minutes per day
wow - 280 min/day
eve - 200 min/day
LotR - 250 min/day
CoH - 310 min/day
SWG - 290 min/day
I think what this shows is that the average xfire player is a pretty hard core gamer since 4-5 hour play sessions seem to be rather long for an average?
---
Ethion
When it comes to taking things out of context to suit your own view, you seem obsessed with the idea that I am fanatically supporting the game to the point that I am in denial about the fact that the game isn't doing very well. I don't fanatically support anything & only play AoC because for the time being I find it enjoyable. It does annoy me though that so many people seem to be pursuing an irrational Vendetta against the game rather than just finding something else to do.
It is not so much the support, but that you believe the numbers do not speak to a majority. It may not, but you seem adamant in refusing to even view these numbers as a sign of how the players feel about the game.
I do agree about the Vendetta to an extent, but if so many promises had not been made, and broken, money wasted on a product that did not fulfill, and the fact Funcom took a good game and premise and destroyed it, and pushed it into the dirt. People would not be so vocal.
I find it amusing that you think it requires more than two hours a day to play a goal oriented game. Just because you set limits on how much commitment people should show toward an MMO, that doesn't mean everyone else has to agree with you. In your survey on another thread, the first band was '1 -3' & the second was '4 - 6' with there even being another two bands after that, LOL.
Again, this is out of context. I do not believe that in so much as I feel a player who puts a minimal amount of time into a game are willing to gloss over the many errors and problems. The game has a laughable list of issues, yet you seem to feel Funcom is ok and the game is ok based on your post history. At least YOU feel the issues do not warrant people feeling that Funcom is ruining the game. As to my survey, it really gets to the point. A majority will be in the lower brackets, and the fact remains, people who play a limited schedule will be willing to forget any problems, and usually have less of a chance of even running into these problems. Play one hour a day, the chance of hitting a problem maybe 10%? Play 8 hours, 80% chance to run into a problem (note:arbitrary numbers in case you wish to use these as your next attack. It just shows you have more of a chance of running into an issue the longer you play). Why is it ok to make a game that limits our play time in the first place? I can sit down and play Halo for a quick hour or for 3-6, and not have the amount of bugs AoC has.
The reason why MMOs are more popular now is precisely because they have moved away from requiring fanaticism & become much more 'casual friendly'. Most people don't have the time for what you describe & the game developers have correctly recognised this lucrative market, much to the chagrin of those that complain MMOs just aren't 'hardcore' any more.
I have no issues with the "Casual" market. But, to be honest, Funcom never did market towards this type of player. PvP, Sieges and Raids are NOT for "Casual" players. And this seems to be the push for AoC. Yet all of these features FAIL. You are discussing AoC like it was made for the Casual market which is also a mistake. Take LOTRO, this was, is, and always will be geared toward the casual player....so will EQ2 as long as it survives. Nothing in AoC equals casual, and as a matter of fact screams frustration for so many players. The game offers nothing for a person who just wishes to goof off. No clothing, emotes are oh so, nothing to collect, no rewards for playing, no housing...no world style hobbies which MMO's are known for.
Not sure what the quote about 'Starving Children Overseas' was supposed to prove, must be those fingers in my ears, but it still doesn't make Xfire representive, LOL.
Take the fingers out and you may realize how starved for a GOOD game you are.
Thanks very much, that is both interesting & enlightening.
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
This is fascinating. The fact that each week the game seems to lose 2000-3000 total hours...that is 8-12 players a week leaving AoC.
Interesting.
This is fascinating. The fact that each week the game seems to lose 2000-3000 total hours...that is 8-12 players a week leaving AoC.
Interesting.
Thats 8-12 XFire players leaving per week. The real number is likely quite different. Given that xfire probably reflects less then 1% of the real population that number could be 100x... Also keep in mind this could be just people loosing interest in playing less of a new game. And finally if we say Xfire is only reflecting the behaviors of hard core players then we really can't tell what the larger population of casual players are doing....
---
Ethion
This is fascinating. The fact that each week the game seems to lose 2000-3000 total hours...that is 8-12 players a week leaving AoC.
Interesting.
Just rough figures here but if the average AoC player / Xfire user plays 4 hours and Sunday June the 13th tAOC Players/ Xfire users logged in 30467 hours and yesterday the AoC Players/ XFire users logged 27201 hours that was a difference of 3266 hours less than the previous Sunday then if I divide that by the 4 hours per user average that would be 816 AoC players / Xfire users less than Sunday June 13th.
I don't think it is possible for 8 to 12 people to log in 3266 hours in a day unless they have a serious number of accounts.
I have heard of 2 boxing but 100 boxing 
I miss DAoC
This is fascinating. The fact that each week the game seems to lose 2000-3000 total hours...that is 8-12 players a week leaving AoC.
Interesting.
I think you have mixed hours with minutes.
Better multiply 8-12 by 60
If those hours are DAILY stats, it means that the game have lost 750-800 XFIRE players that week.
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
This is fascinating. The fact that each week the game seems to lose 2000-3000 total hours...that is 8-12 players a week leaving AoC.
Interesting.
I think you have mixed hours with minutes.
Better multiply 8-12 by 60
If those hours are DAILY stats, it means that the game have lost 750-800 XFIRE players that week.
DB
Agreed. I just noticed that. Good eye.
Holy smokes that is a lot of players.
And sad.
But, the game is all good according to those Funcom devs in todays interview...wonder who is full of it.