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xfire shows AoC numbers decreasing :(
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No no no,
The point of the thread is to point out that the graph showing the no. of users playing AoC on the X-Fire website is generally on a downward slope...
All the filler between the OP and this post has been speculation on why this has happened.
Maybe because it happens with all mmos? Even WoW had around 20% of registered keys that never converted to a paying account.
AOCs numbers are down almost 50% in the past 2 months though and it has been a steady downward trend for almost 3 months now. The game is bleeding subscriptions rapidly. You used to be able to confirm it by watching primetime server populations but they nerfed that to hide the problem and put all servers at medium population all the time to further hide it.
I'm sure at the end of the month they'll release some bogus statement saying the game has shipped X accounts or some other vague meaningless number to try to trick people into thinking that is the subscription base.
Dude, what are you smoking? The game been out less than 2 months. How the heck do you have data for 3 months?
I think that this say it all, about the cretibility of all the trolls here.
Oops you are right, make that 1 month and 2 month. For some reason I was thinking I paid twice before cancelling and not just once. The point still stands. From June 20th until now it the server populations have fallen almost 50% at prime time(slightly over 3000 on a weeknight back then down to 1800 last week before they shut down the search function). It has been on a steady decline since the 2nd week of release.
I see AoC this way.
When Katie Couric joined the CBS news team there was a ton of hype. So much hype that her ratings were through the roof her first few weeks. After that, everyone who was watching thinking that she was gonna do a great job discovered she sucked doing the evening news and went somewhere else for their evening information.
A few years later she has the worste ratings of all the major networks and CBS is looking to get rid of her.
Bottom line is,,,AoC had the hype but now people are discovering that the game sucks and now will go back to what they were playing till something else catches their eye.
I do think that the reality is very similar and AoC has had a HUGE drop off in numbers, with a lot of people refusing to pay monthly for an unfinished game that isn't anything great over what is already out there and has only one starting area.
Then your comprehension skills are clearly very lacking. Read again, the point is that is popularity is decreasing at an alarming (for FC) rate.
Bottom reached today.
http://www.xfire.com/games/aoc/Age_of_Conan_Hyborian_Adventures/ at 21.700 minutes now
Let's see now. Do some calculations/
With Wow at 449.000 minutes now.
This means Conan is played rougly 20 times less than Wow.
Wow is known to have about 4 to 4.5 million western subscribers (less in summer).
That would mean Conan would have about 200 to 220 K active subscribers. it is a bit low I think for a newlly launched game with 700.000+ units sold.
Comparing with other MMO's it would mean EVE is at about 100 to 120 K in the summer.
The real bummer is LOTRO with hardly over 8300 minutes played... placing it under the 100K mark.
Of course the smaller the number the bigger the sample error.
BUT these ARE sample stats and they show trends !
Thanks to another Fubared patch also, I think we will see a massive exodus over the following week as well.
I did a blog post here with a list of everything that Funcom has done to AoC over the past 1 1/2 months.
Here
Simple -n- Complex
The amount of bugs and issues introduced there is phenomenal. This is way beyond Vanguard proportions in respect to issues.
Funcom has some major work ahead if they wish to keep some type of feasibility in the market place.
I don't think xfire is useful for a comparison like this one because not every game is going to attract the same number of xfire players and not every game is going to have people play the same amount per day. It is at least semi useful for tracking a single game compared to itself and even then the numbers have to be taken with a whole block of salt and not just a grain.
It clearly shows AOC is losing players pretty quickly as does a simple server search (which they disabled last week just to hide it). I'd say they have lost close to 50% of the opening week players at this point.
I don't think xfire is useful for a comparison like this one because not every game is going to attract the same number of xfire players and not every game is going to have people play the same amount per day. It is at least semi useful for tracking a single game compared to itself and even then the numbers have to be taken with a whole block of salt and not just a grain.
It clearly shows AOC is losing players pretty quickly as does a simple server search (which they disabled last week just to hide it). I'd say they have lost close to 50% of the opening week players at this point.
I think we have noted this before. It is but a sample.
And I think it is a good sample. Why? Xfire has always been geared toward the FPS/PvP crowd (as noted by some of the top games,CoD, Counterstrike, Guild Wars, Silkroad)...all PvP oriented, etc.
And to go from 60k hours to start to a mere 20k is a huge difference. Look at Guild Wars, that game has hardly budged on the Xfire charts, and always performs in the top 10, as well as Warcraft (not WoW)...all competitive games.
AoC advertised itself as a competitive PvP based game, and the Xfire numbers show this was the biggest mistake on their part.
Launching with only half of the PvP intact was the numero uno issue. And everyone knows it.
No, Xfire is proving AoC is NOT a PvP game...thats for sure.
Yeah I agree with that. I would think a LOT more xfire users play AOC than LOTRO as an example. You have very FPS oriented PvP game compared to an almost completely PvE game. So you can't really compare xfire data from AOC to that for LOTRO, completely different user base.
Agreed...or even Vanguard or EQ2. EQ2 also has a small PvP based an Vanguard...well, PvP = dead server...lol.
Cheers
Hmm Xfire has always been geared to the FPS/PVP crowd?
This is of course your opinion...Another opinion would be that these are just the PC games that are played most by the way.
Everyone is saying that Wow is mostly a PVE game, well for being now 3 years on number one with sometimes double the playing time as number two, it shows it is just the biggest played PC game out there. PVP or PVE doesn't matter apparently.
No surprises really and I just wanted to show there IS a a trend even between games.
MY theory is that the so called mass market for MMORPG's is NOT there (Wow is just another league). The biggest MMORPG' always had far less than a 500K subscription base and most hang in there at less than 100K after a certain period.
So leave out WoW and you end up with rather a small niche market for payed MMO games. Conan shouldn't even be counted because of too many people still playing on the free 30 days.Nor is the free GW any indication.
---
The bottom line is that a game that needs to be paid for ... must be a kind of incredible game. AND ... that's the main reason why all those new paid MMORPG's just don't hold out.
The moment your MMORPG gameplay is less than say CoD, you won't get the money from too many subscribers.
The MMO market exists outside of WoW. The reason many games haven't broken more than a few hundred thousand subs is they just don't offer much gameplay to a wide audience. There are a few decent niche games, a few one trick ponies and the rest of the market is just flat offerings.
Conan sold what? 700,000 copies in a couple months which shows the market is there and eager to play another game. The trouble is expecations are higher than what any company has delivered yet.
Yeah, in the past 4 years, we've seen that crucial gap.
There's the MMO market, and then there's WoW. An entire league of it's own. You don't have to get WoW numbers to be a 'success' anymore. You don't even need to hit 1 million. All an MMO has to do to succeed today is simply stay alive.
If AoC can maintain enough subscribers to continue producing content, I wouldn't hesitate to call it a success. However, with the focus already moving to 'Secret World', I hope that they will be willing to maintain AoC for as long as there is a demand for it.
Of course, this is all my opinion, but it seems to me like just another game in the MMO market that, like all the other games out there, has to put a lot of effort into staying alive.
They lost 3247 hours this week or 13% . July 11th was 25432 and yesterday was 22185. Losses are slowing a bit they were losing 14 to 15% each week.
I miss DAoC
The big test is next week. The first month of paid time is over this weekend and anyone who is still playing but had quit is going to stop playing. Should see another small drop this week.
July 11th - 25432
July 18th - 22185
Another 3k hours lost from last week.. But, if we use all games, we can see an overall loss due to vacations, etc. But, a majority see maybe a 1k hour loss or less.
Like has been said. This actual weekend may be another wave as scrips run out. Overall it is not pretty.
It is not the total indicator, but trends are trends.
People aren't logging on cause there isn't anything to do beyond making new alts.
Spoils of War - The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it.
Yes.
You know the famous end game siege system is ... very limited.
While I stopped playing at around level 40. I read about the very bad frame rates at which those end battles are being played (terrible with 48vs48 players).
BUT apart from that: even the idea of having to construct a keep and then defend it looks ... great ... until execution. You grind for a few weeks in gathering professions.... you have your keep .... you fight for it ... and then you can loose it.
Sounds boring after the 4th time loss I'd say. Only now and then a fight (every week or even 2 weeks) to have a batle of 48vs48....How many guilds will survive this for more than a month ???
In that other game you can have 40vs40 battles 10 times a day (battling over different towers and the end HQ) and you are far more rewarded with honor to better your playing character.
OK the fights are perhaps shorter and there is much less at stake, but anyway 25% of those fights tend to be very exciting "mid-field" battles over open territory and towers.
It shows that there is a BIG gap in what Conan promised and the final execution.
Add to this the terrible buggy code and incredible framedrops and Conan will struggle to survive after WotLK and WAR will launch.
I hate watching something fail but watching the numbers is pretty good entertainment in itself. July 12th was 28409 and July 19th was 24873 for a drop of 3536 hours or 13.5% again. Projecting that out if they lose another 13% this week next Saturdays numbers should be around 21500 give or take a bit.
I miss DAoC
i play AOC every day practically and Xfire doesnt track squat of my hours I play so i can imagine its the same for alot of people so frankly the statistics on AOC is possibly inaccurate. though the possibility of decreased numbers are there, but with my inactive xfire not tracking squat it goes the same for quite a few people so who really knows what the true numbers are.
3.4ghz Phenom II X4 965, 8GB PC12800 DDR3 GSKILL, EVGA 560GTX 2GB OC, 640GB HD SATA II, BFG 1000WATT PSU. MSI NF980-G65 TRI-SLI MOBO.
here we go again.
No one is saying that xfire is tracking all of the people playing AoC. What we are saying is that the game had 80k hours the first week or two after launch and even after the new and shiny wore off the numbers have been decreasing 10 - 20% on a week to week basis ever since. In other words this is just watching trends.
Either no one has quit AoC and 80% of the people playing AoC at launch and using XFire quit using Xfire and are still playing AoC or 80% of the people playing AoC at launch and using Xfire are still using Xfire but quit playing AoC.
Even the kids riding the short bus in the window licking section should be able to figure this one out.
Now your next post will be how Xfire is not a represenative sample of people playing AoC and only quitters use Xfire, right. Try reading the entire thread dude.
I miss DAoC
here we go again.
No one is saying that xfire is tracking all of the people playing AoC. What we are saying is that the game had 80k hours the first week or two after launch and even after the new and shiny wore off the numbers have been decreasing 10 - 20% on a week to week basis ever since. In other words this is just watching trends.
Either no one has quit AoC and 80% of the people playing AoC at launch and using XFire quit using Xfire and are still playing AoC or 80% of the people playing AoC at launch and using Xfire are still using Xfire but quit playing AoC.
Even the kids riding the short bus in the window licking section should be able to figure this one out.
Now your next post will be how Xfire is not a represenative sample of people playing AoC and only quitters use Xfire, right. Try reading the entire thread dude.
Here we go again
, people that don't understand statistics claiming that any old sample, now matter how biased & unrepresentative is still somehow predictive of the general population.
If he did read the entire thread he would see that half the posts are from people like myself who disagree with you & have even quoted links demonstrating exactly how unrepresentative Xfire is.
Neither of your 'Either X or Y' analogies are relevant & no-one is trying to claim that only the Xfire users have quit. What the person you replied to & others on this thread have repeatedly said including myself, is that the Xfire statistics are unrepresentative & no-one knows what the real ones are.
Is it really that hard to understand?
If you can't "Have your cake & eat it too", then how can "The proof of the pudding be in the eating"?
Take the Hecatomb? TCG What Is Your Doom? quiz.
So where is your data to show that XfIre is not a good representation of the games population other than the claim you don't use it and don't know anyone who does. Obviously a lot of people do and a lot more of the people that do played 3 to 4 times more AoC a month ago than do now.
I miss DAoC
here we go again.
No one is saying that xfire is tracking all of the people playing AoC. What we are saying is that the game had 80k hours the first week or two after launch and even after the new and shiny wore off the numbers have been decreasing 10 - 20% on a week to week basis ever since. In other words this is just watching trends.
Either no one has quit AoC and 80% of the people playing AoC at launch and using XFire quit using Xfire and are still playing AoC or 80% of the people playing AoC at launch and using Xfire are still using Xfire but quit playing AoC.
Even the kids riding the short bus in the window licking section should be able to figure this one out.
Now your next post will be how Xfire is not a represenative sample of people playing AoC and only quitters use Xfire, right. Try reading the entire thread dude.
Here we go again
, people that don't understand statistics claiming that any old sample, now matter how biased & unrepresentative is still somehow predictive of the general population.
If he did read the entire thread he would see that half the posts are from people like myself who disagree with you & have even quoted links demonstrating exactly how unrepresentative Xfire is.
Neither of your 'Either X or Y' analogies are relevant & no-one is trying to claim that only the Xfire users have quit. What the person you replied to & others on this thread have repeatedly said including myself, is that the Xfire statistics are unrepresentative & no-one knows what the real ones are.
Is it really that hard to understand?
This is the easy part to understand....
Over half of the Xfire players left the game.
The game had a start of 12K+ users
It now has around 6k.
I do not care who you are, that alone is telling no matter where it came from.
And it really is hard to avoid the many threads of players on the AoC forums screaming about empty servers..why would they believe that...because it is full?
Lets say Mcdonalds, Wendys and KFC were all on the same street. Over 12k people visited KFC when it opened. Business was always good for McD's and Wendys...
Then all of a sudden less than 6k people were visitng KFC on a regular basis. Nothing changed for Wendys or McD's.
6k People just got sick of the Bucket of AoC is all. And no telling how many in the actual game got sick of that same meal.
But, when people hear about the 6k people who stopped eating there, they sure are going to be leery of going to that same restaurant. Who knows how much food poisoning was going down.
I would not want to visit an empty restautrant. Scary.
......Xfire activity statistics (another topic that will get you banned on the Age of Conan forums) continue to reflect Age of Conan's decline in popularity. The Xfire population doesn't represent everyone, but it's a very reasonable sample if you're wondering about activity trends in the game. As the player activity level goes, so goes the Xfire activity level, and so goes the Funcom stock price.