2-3 millions will be great success, I doubt WAR will get more, more reallistic is about 1-1.5 mln - IF will be really good at release. Why? Because it's basically pvp game - so no WoW numbers for WAR. But I can be wrong
2-3 millions will be great success, I doubt WAR will get more, more reallistic is about 1-1.5 mln - IF will be really good at release. Why? Because it's basically pvp game - so no WoW numbers for WAR. But I can be wrong
WAR will probably get at least 2 million subs from those 2 places, whether it will be more or drop to less, I have no idea.
Ok, but "why". Based on what?
I have no problem accepting your conjecture but it has to be based on something.
Mostly I make those estimates probably at top end of numbers because of the amount of beta applicants, the interest in the game from people who want RvR, and the warhammer world. Also because there is not much out there right now and many were disappointed in AoC. The similarity to WoW has drawn in a lot of people too. No, I don't mean clone talk or any of that other crap, but just the look is bound to draw people in.
I know whole guilds already that are from WoW and more that havent made it in yet that will be joining. Based on all that i believe it will be successful and 2 million seems a reasonable number. Even AoC had quite a bit to start off, but of course they probably won't hold on to their initial numbers.
So, that alone, I think WAR will get good numbers, and continue to hold them. Probably in the first week or 2, they will have a million sales and it should grow and top out around 2 I am thinking. Hard to say exactly why except for what I mentioned, but highly anticipated games usually sell well to start, even if they are botched (like AoC) and this certainly is not (botched).
Probably. It's really fun to pick on the King. However, if both WoW AND WAR succeed, we'll have two things. 1) Many more people coming to the genre, which is good (mostly), and 2) more even distribution of those people which might mean WoW gets picked on less.
you forgot the more important
if you have 2 companies as the top shits and fighting for the top, well then the consumer wins cause they will work harder for more power.
If WAR gets over 1million and can hold that figure over 500k for 6 months its huge success. Keep mind that after WoW no other MMO has been able to keep 50% subscribers after 6 months. And most couldn't even get 1 million sales, not even AoC(fell short by 300k).
Let's say WAR end's up getting 8 million player's. Will it still be considered great by the forum's? Or will it become just like WoW, waiting to get flamed for ruining MMO's forever.
All MMOGs will be flamed, no matter what. It's always the discontent and loud who dominate forums, unable to accept that others of both equal or better intelligence and life situation can enjoy something they personally don't. Welcome to the internet.
I seriously believe WAR can actually take close to half of WoW's North American, Aussie, and European player base. China maybe not because they live off of the gold and item farming, China seems to love grinding as is evident by any MMO's coming from Asia, and WoW is a grind heavy game in the end.
WAR is about PvP (RvR) action and large battles, and an ever changing landscape due to the war affecting it. They pretty much seem to eliminate the grind that many MMO's have. This is a key to drawing in players who want a quick 30 minutes or so of FUN play before bed time or whatever, and be able to accomplish something besides just griding.
I think that people are a bit clueless as to why WoW has so many. Casual game, good for people who are not gamers, families play, it's easy to get into, you don't have to dedicate your life to it (yet I know gamers feel you have to, however not one person I know who plays wow does - they just play to have fun), you don't have to pvp if you don't want but it's there if you do, etc.
Have you been following warhammer at all?. Without giving much away, this game, is by FAR more casual friendly than wow. WoW is designed BY the previously unemployed hardcore raiders FOR the currently unemployed hardcore raiders. The "casual" content you speak of, in WoW, is just the wool over your eyes. It's minimal gains but still a long end time-sink. In Warhammer, there is NO waiting if you want in on pvp/rvr/PVE action, none... what.. so ... ever. Casual friendly does not mean everyone can get to 70, casual friendly does not mean everyone can get geared up in "welfare epics". CASUAL FRIENDLY, means there is virtually no DOWNTIME for your entertainment. No getting home from work and sitting there for an hour waiting for your 30th heroic token farm of the night.
WoW is still relatively designed by old-school EQ mentality mechanics and screwball devs who will continue to think 800 reps to grind is the way to go.
Do you want to know the reason why wow "suddenly" launched their achievements system? it's pretty obvious, because those who beta test warhammer are leaving, for good because already they know that this game has the funfactor, content and over-all passion to focus on FUN more than anything.
I seriously believe WAR can actually take close to half of WoW's North American, Aussie, and European player base. China maybe not because they live off of the gold and item farming, China seems to love grinding as is evident by any MMO's coming from Asia, and WoW is a grind heavy game in the end. WAR is about PvP (RvR) action and large battles, and an ever changing landscape due to the war affecting it. They pretty much seem to eliminate the grind that many MMO's have. This is a key to drawing in players who want a quick 30 minutes or so of FUN play before bed time or whatever, and be able to accomplish something besides just griding.
I think what will keep asian market in WAR will be the 1-80 reknown rank grind .
I don't know how someone can consider WoW that casual of a game. When I played(at release, then for 2 months after TBC release) barely anyone was in the BGs from 10-60/70. Yeah there were a few matches, lots in the beginning but as the game went on they dwindled to 20-30 minute waits to get into WSG at 35 or something. Maybe it was just my server. You could however just pick up the game, do a quest before work, come back and continue. This was nice, but it made the game practically single player, why even play an MMO then. Instances REQUIRED a group, or you couldn't complete them. I'm not bashing WoW here, just stating it's not all that casual of a game. WAR on the other hand, which is heavily based off DAoC, Mythic's old greatest hit, is a much different story. RvR(pvp) was meaningful to each realm's status, giving the hardcore players reason to PvP, but RvR was also available about an hour or two into playing the game. PvP was much more readily available in DAoC then it ever was in WoW, and gave players just as much a casual experience, if not more. Also, there wasn't waiting times or anything discouraging. DAoC had leveling that was in the sweet zone. Getting to 50 wasn't a hassle, I found myself tiring out and having to take a break at about lvl 50ish on my first WoW toon, because I couldn't take how long and boring the leveling was. I'm sure WAR will be in the same sweet spot where people can play "just enough" to get by and experience everything. Basically I'm saying that pros and cons aside, WAR will by no means be a pushover in the casual/family/ordinary player crowd. Also, I've heard/read the graphical requirements will be similarly low-end as WoW was when it first came out, another casual key point.
currently playing: FFXI Waiting for FFXIV to be updated more.
WoW finally has a contender from what I am seeing.
The saying is...
If WoW = McDonalds (may have better fries) and AoC = Steak.. I am going to assume <imo> that Warhammer Online is definetly going to be the Burger King (got better burgers) of the bunch or pick your other favorite fast food joint.
As for its commercial success, it can reach the 1 million sold copies status IF the things are polished enough in 2 months time. The buyers will be the same who tried AoC and the people wanting to have something else than Wow after 3 years.
But 4 things hamper WAR's initial success (with AoC it stopped at the 700K point because of complete lack of polishment).
1. RvR play is very limited in play. DAoC showed this. After 3 months reconquering what you already conquered 10 times is lame. The progress of guilds and continued play needs to be through PVE and PvP . Pure PvP alone is not enough to a PAY to PLAY game. Else you can join the free TF2.
2. Because of the WAR casual play type (hardly any group forming) and "you just jump in" kinda thing, it will be VERY difficult to maintain guildies. The "jump in" system will hamper defense.... "we loose ... I leave" ... kinda thing and very little coordination will be possible.
The die hard guilds will be there but because of the lack of serious end game PVE content, the goal will always be the RvR system which will be too repetitive for most players after a while. (I guess 3 months end game play)
3. Personal gear progression is still the only driving force for indiviual MMO players. Hence why Wow is a success. So I hope for Mythic they didn't exclude it, because it is the MAIN driving force to "freeform" playing styles. Wow has a second driving force and that's "guild progression" through difficult PVE content through raids. This raid aspect is completely lacking in the end game of WAR and so will hamper long term interest. Interesting will be what Mythic did in the crafting department.
4. To me the MOST important factor is that PvP fights in WAR are far too slow and static as shown in every video available on the web. A LOT of Wow PvP players are interested.... but they will have the shock of their lives when they will be in these PvP fights and see the combat is not only 1/3 of the speeds they are used to and far from exciting. The "new" and "first impressions" will wear off very soon after the first playing days (just like the "new" combat of Conan did btw). Oh there will be very much "ecxited posts" no doubt about that, but the fights will very soon be compared to the market standard after the initial scream of "wow". A PvP game based on lame PvP fights isn't a good idea.
----
Conclusion: Pure RvR already died with the demise of DAoC 3 to 4 years ago. A game based purely on RvR - without hi end raiding content - doesn't have a very long term appeal - by lack of choices.
WAR could do very well with 500K to even 750 K subscribers in its first two months, but their problem will be to keep up the sales of NEW users because the attrition rates after 3/4 months will be high. It could very well be under these figures if they don't do anything anymore on the speed and action of the dull PvP fighting animations and the end game coordinated Raid content.
Why oh why does every MMORPG's - launched these past 2 years - have characters with a 'stick in their ass" and walk like a moonrunner.
Originally posted by unherdninja Now I bet alot of you expect this to be some crazy troll thread. It's not. Im just stating a prediction for the future. Age's ago before WoW came out you can look back on these forum's and see many post's saying how great WoW will be. It was great. Now the same thing is happening here with WAR. Many post's are being made about how great it will be. It will be great. Let's say WAR end's up getting 8 million player's. Will it still be considered great by the forum's? Or will it become just like WoW, waiting to get flamed for ruining MMO's forever. This is just something Ive begun to think about. If it prove's true then I think I can make conclusion that the MMO community doesnt base a game on good gameplay but how many member's it has. Comment below. Thank you!
No actually before WoW came out the majority of hardcore MMO fans said that Wow would fail and that EQ2 would dominate big time.
Games I've played/tried out:WAR, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, AoC, EQ1, EQ2, WoW, Vangaurd, FFXI, D&DO, Lineage 2, Saga Of Ryzom, EvE Online, DAoC, Guild Wars,Star Wars Galaxies, Hell Gate London, Auto Assault, Grando Espada ( AKA SoTNW ), Archlord, CoV/H, Star Trek Online, APB, Champions Online, FFXIV, Rift Online, GW2.
Originally posted by Vicksburg WAR is not Wow and never will be. As for its commercial success, it can reach the 1 million sold copies status IF the things are polished enough in 2 months time. The buyers will be the same who tried AoC and the people wanting to have something else than Wow after 3 years. But 4 things hamper WAR's initial success (with AoC it stopped at the 700K point because of complete lack of polishment). 1. RvR play is very limited in play. DAoC showed this. After 3 months reconquering what you already conquered 10 times is lame. The progress of guilds and continued play needs to be through PVE and PvP . Pure PvP alone is not enough to a PAY to PLAY game. Else you can join the free TF2. 2. Because of the WAR casual play type (hardly any group forming) and "you just jump in" kinda thing, it will be VERY difficult to maintain guildies. The "jump in" system will hamper defense.... "we loose ... I leave" ... kinda thing and very little coordination will be possible. The die hard guilds will be there but because of the lack of serious end game PVE content, the goal will always be the RvR system which will be too repetitive for most players after a while. (I guess 3 months end game play) 3. Personal gear progression is still the only driving force for indiviual MMO players. Hence why Wow is a success. So I hope for Mythic they didn't exclude it, because it is the MAIN driving force to "freeform" playing styles. Wow has a second driving force and that's "guild progression" through difficult PVE content through raids. This raid aspect is completely lacking in the end game of WAR and so will hamper long term interest. Interesting will be what Mythic did in the crafting department. 4. To me the MOST important factor is that PvP fights in WAR are far too slow and static as shown in every video available on the web. A LOT of Wow PvP players are interested.... but they will have the shock of their lives when they will be in these PvP fights and see the combat is not only 1/3 of the speeds they are used to and far from exciting. The "new" and "first impressions" will wear off very soon after the first playing days (just like the "new" combat of Conan did btw). Oh there will be very much "ecxited posts" no doubt about that, but the fights will very soon be compared to the market standard after the initial scream of "wow". A PvP game based on lame PvP fights isn't a good idea. ---- Conclusion: Pure RvR already died with the demise of DAoC 3 to 4 years ago. A game based purely on RvR - without hi end raiding content - doesn't have a very long term appeal - by lack of choices. WAR could do very well with 500K to even 750 K subscribers in its first two months, but their problem will be to keep up the sales of NEW users because the attrition rates after 3/4 months will be high. It could very well be under these figures if they don't do anything anymore on the speed and action of the dull PvP fighting animations and the end game coordinated Raid content. Why oh why does every MMORPG's - launched these past 2 years - have characters with a 'stick in their ass" and walk like a moonrunner.
Welcome our resident troll and WoW fanboi in panic mode (hint: check his post history). Maybe you get a clue and learn a bit about WAR before making idiot of yourself? I want want to troll some game, just learn a bit about this game or people will think that you are just stupid (or maybe you are?).
WAR is not Wow and never will be. As for its commercial success, it can reach the 1 million sold copies status IF the things are polished enough in 2 months time. The buyers will be the same who tried AoC and the people wanting to have something else than Wow after 3 years. But 4 things hamper WAR's initial success (with AoC it stopped at the 700K point because of complete lack of polishment). 1. RvR play is very limited in play. DAoC showed this. After 3 months reconquering what you already conquered 10 times is lame. The progress of guilds and continued play needs to be through PVE and PvP . Pure PvP alone is not enough to a PAY to PLAY game. Else you can join the free TF2. 2. Because of the WAR casual play type (hardly any group forming) and "you just jump in" kinda thing, it will be VERY difficult to maintain guildies. The "jump in" system will hamper defense.... "we loose ... I leave" ... kinda thing and very little coordination will be possible. The die hard guilds will be there but because of the lack of serious end game PVE content, the goal will always be the RvR system which will be too repetitive for most players after a while. (I guess 3 months end game play) 3. Personal gear progression is still the only driving force for indiviual MMO players. Hence why Wow is a success. So I hope for Mythic they didn't exclude it, because it is the MAIN driving force to "freeform" playing styles. Wow has a second driving force and that's "guild progression" through difficult PVE content through raids. This raid aspect is completely lacking in the end game of WAR and so will hamper long term interest. Interesting will be what Mythic did in the crafting department. 4. To me the MOST important factor is that PvP fights in WAR are far too slow and static as shown in every video available on the web. A LOT of Wow PvP players are interested.... but they will have the shock of their lives when they will be in these PvP fights and see the combat is not only 1/3 of the speeds they are used to and far from exciting. The "new" and "first impressions" will wear off very soon after the first playing days (just like the "new" combat of Conan did btw). Oh there will be very much "ecxited posts" no doubt about that, but the fights will very soon be compared to the market standard after the initial scream of "wow". A PvP game based on lame PvP fights isn't a good idea. ---- Conclusion: Pure RvR already died with the demise of DAoC 3 to 4 years ago. A game based purely on RvR - without hi end raiding content - doesn't have a very long term appeal - by lack of choices. WAR could do very well with 500K to even 750 K subscribers in its first two months, but their problem will be to keep up the sales of NEW users because the attrition rates after 3/4 months will be high. It could very well be under these figures if they don't do anything anymore on the speed and action of the dull PvP fighting animations and the end game coordinated Raid content. Why oh why does every MMORPG's - launched these past 2 years - have characters with a 'stick in their ass" and walk like a moonrunner.
You know what is funny? You tried look like a smart person. But you just showed you have no idea about WAR and now look like total WoW fanboi and idiot.
Just give us a good, grindless MMO. One that has good matching mechanism in PVP + a way of progression both personal and guild, it also have to relate to skill rather than grind, and we will be happy.
We also need a good tool for guild/clan/team finding, and one for selling stuff.
But again, it feels like you are thinking like a gamer and not like joe average.
The average player doesn't sit there thinkikng of it being gear centric, or RvR or anything like that.
And no, WoW is not gear centric. I know that will raise eyebrows but hear me out.
The average person who plays wow just gets together with family and friends and just plays. That's it. They dont' care about awesome gear and keeping up with raids or anything like that. They are average people who just sign in, do some quests have some fun, get whatever gear they get. Some might try for more but they are not bitching and complaining about gear as it really doesn't matter.
I have yet to meet a casual, family minded WoW player who is concerend about such things.
It's only when players start signing into the idea that they have to pvp, have to raid, have to keep up with the Joneses that WoW starts getting a bit more intense.
I will again state that the average player (read: average person who also plays wow) will not really care so much about war. Though one doesn't have to pvp in War the game will appeal more to pvp players and players who are interested in the warhammer universe.
However, the teenage girls, fathers, Mom's, the woman who works in my office, the woman who works in our CA office, etc, will not be concerned about Warhammer.
To add, I have a WoW account and I also just sign in for short periods of time to do some quests, explore, etc. I am not concerned about gear, lvls, or any such things.
If you really think the truly casual still dont want the gear your nuts. Its human nature to want the best. The family casual player wont admit to wanting the gear, but they do. You can NOT have such a large progression end game for JUST GEAR and say the game is not centered around gear. Why do you think blizzard is switching to all raids being both 10 man and 25 man? Its simple really. Its to get that casual family man into raiding. Eventually he will see how much easier the game gets with his 10man set and want to get into 25 man raids.
To the OP. Will WAR get steamrolled by people who hate everything (which there are a ton of here) if it gets 8 mil subs? Of course it will.
WAR is not Wow and never will be. As for its commercial success, it can reach the 1 million sold copies status IF the things are polished enough in 2 months time. The buyers will be the same who tried AoC and the people wanting to have something else than Wow after 3 years. But 4 things hamper WAR's initial success (with AoC it stopped at the 700K point because of complete lack of polishment). 1. RvR play is very limited in play. DAoC showed this. After 3 months reconquering what you already conquered 10 times is lame. The progress of guilds and continued play needs to be through PVE and PvP . Pure PvP alone is not enough to a PAY to PLAY game. Else you can join the free TF2. 2. Because of the WAR casual play type (hardly any group forming) and "you just jump in" kinda thing, it will be VERY difficult to maintain guildies. The "jump in" system will hamper defense.... "we loose ... I leave" ... kinda thing and very little coordination will be possible. The die hard guilds will be there but because of the lack of serious end game PVE content, the goal will always be the RvR system which will be too repetitive for most players after a while. (I guess 3 months end game play) 3. Personal gear progression is still the only driving force for indiviual MMO players. Hence why Wow is a success. So I hope for Mythic they didn't exclude it, because it is the MAIN driving force to "freeform" playing styles. Wow has a second driving force and that's "guild progression" through difficult PVE content through raids. This raid aspect is completely lacking in the end game of WAR and so will hamper long term interest. Interesting will be what Mythic did in the crafting department. 4. To me the MOST important factor is that PvP fights in WAR are far too slow and static as shown in every video available on the web. A LOT of Wow PvP players are interested.... but they will have the shock of their lives when they will be in these PvP fights and see the combat is not only 1/3 of the speeds they are used to and far from exciting. The "new" and "first impressions" will wear off very soon after the first playing days (just like the "new" combat of Conan did btw). Oh there will be very much "ecxited posts" no doubt about that, but the fights will very soon be compared to the market standard after the initial scream of "wow". A PvP game based on lame PvP fights isn't a good idea. ---- Conclusion: Pure RvR already died with the demise of DAoC 3 to 4 years ago. A game based purely on RvR - without hi end raiding content - doesn't have a very long term appeal - by lack of choices. WAR could do very well with 500K to even 750 K subscribers in its first two months, but their problem will be to keep up the sales of NEW users because the attrition rates after 3/4 months will be high. It could very well be under these figures if they don't do anything anymore on the speed and action of the dull PvP fighting animations and the end game coordinated Raid content. Why oh why does every MMORPG's - launched these past 2 years - have characters with a 'stick in their ass" and walk like a moonrunner.
You know what is funny? You tried look like a smart person. But you just showed you have no idea about WAR and now look like total WoW fanboi and idiot.
No ... I just analysed the game and I think I answered a lot of questions.
Have this thread saved and we will discus it in Jan 2009.
All what I said about Conan back in Feb this year was also right on spot BTW. The only fault was that I expected a 250-350 K subscription rate of AoC, I think I was 50% off. Within 6 months AoC will have hardly 150K left.
I just see too much coming I suppose...:)) Watch out for point 4 and point 2 in WAR.
That's why they have "living guilds" Vicksburg. No, that's not some monster that comes in your closet when you sleep at night. Just because there IS casual stuff doesn't mean there aren't groups. There ARE high-end PvE stuff that requires a group, and imagine if you could have five Karazhans going at once instead of one or two. Because they won't require 10 people, they only need 6. The other 'facts' are regurgitated crap that you've said all along, and well I learned to ignore it. Nice job on creativity with #2 though. !
Edit: The driving factor in WAR won't be some digital pixelized item with made up numbers and letters. It'll be FUN. Probably an alien concept to you, but that's okay. Also, another one will be realm pride. Don't even say you played DAoC if you don't know what that is. This is a different game than WoW, face it. #3 fails too.
-------------------------------------- A human and an Elf get captured by Skaven. The rat-men are getting ready to shoot the first hostage with Dwarf-made guns when he yells, "Earthquake!" The naturally nervous Skaven run and hide from the imaginary threat. He escapes. The Skaven regroup and bring out the Elf. Being very smart, the Elf has figured out what to do. When the Skaven get ready to shoot, the Elf, in order to scare them, yells, "Fire!"
WAR is not Wow and never will be. As for its commercial success, it can reach the 1 million sold copies status IF the things are polished enough in 2 months time. The buyers will be the same who tried AoC and the people wanting to have something else than Wow after 3 years. But 4 things hamper WAR's initial success (with AoC it stopped at the 700K point because of complete lack of polishment). 1. RvR play is very limited in play. DAoC showed this. After 3 months reconquering what you already conquered 10 times is lame. The progress of guilds and continued play needs to be through PVE and PvP . Pure PvP alone is not enough to a PAY to PLAY game. Else you can join the free TF2. 2. Because of the WAR casual play type (hardly any group forming) and "you just jump in" kinda thing, it will be VERY difficult to maintain guildies. The "jump in" system will hamper defense.... "we loose ... I leave" ... kinda thing and very little coordination will be possible. The die hard guilds will be there but because of the lack of serious end game PVE content, the goal will always be the RvR system which will be too repetitive for most players after a while. (I guess 3 months end game play) 3. Personal gear progression is still the only driving force for indiviual MMO players. Hence why Wow is a success. So I hope for Mythic they didn't exclude it, because it is the MAIN driving force to "freeform" playing styles. Wow has a second driving force and that's "guild progression" through difficult PVE content through raids. This raid aspect is completely lacking in the end game of WAR and so will hamper long term interest. Interesting will be what Mythic did in the crafting department. 4. To me the MOST important factor is that PvP fights in WAR are far too slow and static as shown in every video available on the web. A LOT of Wow PvP players are interested.... but they will have the shock of their lives when they will be in these PvP fights and see the combat is not only 1/3 of the speeds they are used to and far from exciting. The "new" and "first impressions" will wear off very soon after the first playing days (just like the "new" combat of Conan did btw). Oh there will be very much "ecxited posts" no doubt about that, but the fights will very soon be compared to the market standard after the initial scream of "wow". A PvP game based on lame PvP fights isn't a good idea. ---- Conclusion: Pure RvR already died with the demise of DAoC 3 to 4 years ago. A game based purely on RvR - without hi end raiding content - doesn't have a very long term appeal - by lack of choices. WAR could do very well with 500K to even 750 K subscribers in its first two months, but their problem will be to keep up the sales of NEW users because the attrition rates after 3/4 months will be high. It could very well be under these figures if they don't do anything anymore on the speed and action of the dull PvP fighting animations and the end game coordinated Raid content. Why oh why does every MMORPG's - launched these past 2 years - have characters with a 'stick in their ass" and walk like a moonrunner.
LOL. I dunno what to say except
WHAT A FANBOI!
I don't even know how to respond to some of the stuff because it's so offbase. Well it was a good laugh. You contradict yourself in so many areas is laffable.
Don't make me point them out. Umm if you want me to you can respond to this reply. If not refer to the parts in red and make your own inference.
WAR will never "=" WOW, because PVP will never "=" PVE. I know these boards are full of PVP'ers and I know there is definitely a market for PVP, but from my years of gaming experiences across several MMORPG's, I have discovered that PVP falls into the category of "be careful for what you ask for."
The reality is, most folks do not like extended PVP play; most players prefer PVE. PVP games have never competed well with PVE games and will always be dwarfed in comparsion, when comparing "apples to apples" like "WAR to WOW".
WAR should do well, very well, but mostly because of polish and because there will be a substantial amount of PVE content. The PVP, however, will get old very fast for many people.
WAR will never "=" WOW, because PVP will never "=" PVE. I know these boards are full of PVP'ers and I know there is definitely a market for PVP, but from my years of gaming experiences across several MMORPG's, I have discovered that PVP falls into the category of "be careful for what you ask for." The reality is, most folks do not like extended PVP play; most players prefer PVE. PVP games have never competed well with PVE games and will always be dwarfed in comparsion, when comparing "apples to apples" like "WAR to WOW". WAR should do well, very well, but mostly because of polish and because there will be a substantial amount of PVE content. The PVP, however, will get old very fast for many people.
This is all very true. I am anxiously awaiting WAR but I hope there is enough PvE content to finish aside from the PvP. PvP is great and all but after time with it being the only end game it would be no different than grinding raids.
It's a Jeep thing. . . _______ |___| \_______/ = |||||| = |X| \*........*/ |X| |X|_________|X| You wouldn't understand
That's why they have "living guilds" Vicksburg. No, that's not some monster that comes in your closet when you sleep at night. Just because there IS casual stuff doesn't mean there aren't groups. There ARE high-end PvE stuff that requires a group, and imagine if you could have five Karazhans going at once instead of one or two. Because they won't require 10 people, they only need 6. The other 'facts' are regurgitated crap that you've said all along, and well I learned to ignore it. Nice job on creativity with #2 though. ! Edit: The driving factor in WAR won't be some digital pixelized item with made up numbers and letters. It'll be FUN. Probably an alien concept to you, but that's okay. Also, another one will be realm pride. Don't even say you played DAoC if you don't know what that is. This is a different game than WoW, face it. #3 fails too.
So we agree: WAR is not WOW )
Realm pride is a big word, but with casual "just jump in..." game play it will be too limited to be of any significance past a certain period.
Guild pride exists - but is direclty related to PVE progress in raids in Wow.
If it is applied to PvP only, the "fun" factor as you call it, comes to a halt very soon. How long is the game life of a twink in Wow ? (2 months 3 monts average).
See it this way: the progression of your character in the end game is crucial to keep you playing. FUN is in no way enough to keep PAYING to play. You have to feel the progression of your character. Else play TF2.
The only other progression is guild progression, but .... reconquering the already conquered is ... fun for how many months ?
So you DO need serious hi end raid content to keep the choices up and have the guild motivation on.
And if it IS true that gear progression will also be limited in WAR (which I do NOT believe btw), long term subs will be an illusion.
Exactly these elements killed DAoC. hence they tried to add PVE content, but that of course was too little too late.
So the burst of energy and playings of WAR will certainly be there in its first 10 weeks, but what the period after that?
Conquering the already conquered is too limited . A siege is a siege is a siege.
Where will the guilds be listing their progress? 1263 times sacked the enemy capital ?
Neverteless : the real pain point is point 4 I mentioned. With a GOOD and fast and frantic PvP fight mechanism the game could double its success easely. Pity you don't see this. It's so evident to everyone who sees the videos objectively.
WAR is an easy game to get into just like WoW ,and the computer specs much better then WoWs but at the same time people have probably upgraded their computers since WoWs release.If not for WoW itself but for other games so If WAR does get enough WoW players Im sure they will all be able to run WAR fine.
No such thing as luck, just believing in it is what makes it real to you and really...thats all you need.
Comments
2-3 millions will be great success, I doubt WAR will get more, more reallistic is about 1-1.5 mln - IF will be really good at release. Why? Because it's basically pvp game - so no WoW numbers for WAR. But I can be wrong
And the Warhammer people agree as well...
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/06/22/riccitiello-warhammer-wont-rival-world-of-warcraft/
Doesn't mean it won't be a good to great or even "beyond great" game. But One needs to look at so many factors to WoW's success.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
Ok, but "why". Based on what?
I have no problem accepting your conjecture but it has to be based on something.
Mostly I make those estimates probably at top end of numbers because of the amount of beta applicants, the interest in the game from people who want RvR, and the warhammer world. Also because there is not much out there right now and many were disappointed in AoC. The similarity to WoW has drawn in a lot of people too. No, I don't mean clone talk or any of that other crap, but just the look is bound to draw people in.
I know whole guilds already that are from WoW and more that havent made it in yet that will be joining. Based on all that i believe it will be successful and 2 million seems a reasonable number. Even AoC had quite a bit to start off, but of course they probably won't hold on to their initial numbers.
So, that alone, I think WAR will get good numbers, and continue to hold them. Probably in the first week or 2, they will have a million sales and it should grow and top out around 2 I am thinking. Hard to say exactly why except for what I mentioned, but highly anticipated games usually sell well to start, even if they are botched (like AoC) and this certainly is not (botched).
you forgot the more important
if you have 2 companies as the top shits and fighting for the top, well then the consumer wins cause they will work harder for more power.
If WAR gets over 1million and can hold that figure over 500k for 6 months its huge success. Keep mind that after WoW no other MMO has been able to keep 50% subscribers after 6 months. And most couldn't even get 1 million sales, not even AoC(fell short by 300k).
All MMOGs will be flamed, no matter what. It's always the discontent and loud who dominate forums, unable to accept that others of both equal or better intelligence and life situation can enjoy something they personally don't. Welcome to the internet.
I seriously believe WAR can actually take close to half of WoW's North American, Aussie, and European player base. China maybe not because they live off of the gold and item farming, China seems to love grinding as is evident by any MMO's coming from Asia, and WoW is a grind heavy game in the end.
WAR is about PvP (RvR) action and large battles, and an ever changing landscape due to the war affecting it. They pretty much seem to eliminate the grind that many MMO's have. This is a key to drawing in players who want a quick 30 minutes or so of FUN play before bed time or whatever, and be able to accomplish something besides just griding.
Have you been following warhammer at all?. Without giving much away, this game, is by FAR more casual friendly than wow. WoW is designed BY the previously unemployed hardcore raiders FOR the currently unemployed hardcore raiders. The "casual" content you speak of, in WoW, is just the wool over your eyes. It's minimal gains but still a long end time-sink. In Warhammer, there is NO waiting if you want in on pvp/rvr/PVE action, none... what.. so ... ever. Casual friendly does not mean everyone can get to 70, casual friendly does not mean everyone can get geared up in "welfare epics". CASUAL FRIENDLY, means there is virtually no DOWNTIME for your entertainment. No getting home from work and sitting there for an hour waiting for your 30th heroic token farm of the night.
WoW is still relatively designed by old-school EQ mentality mechanics and screwball devs who will continue to think 800 reps to grind is the way to go.
Do you want to know the reason why wow "suddenly" launched their achievements system? it's pretty obvious, because those who beta test warhammer are leaving, for good because already they know that this game has the funfactor, content and over-all passion to focus on FUN more than anything.
I think what will keep asian market in WAR will be the 1-80 reknown rank grind .
I don't know how someone can consider WoW that casual of a game. When I played(at release, then for 2 months after TBC release) barely anyone was in the BGs from 10-60/70. Yeah there were a few matches, lots in the beginning but as the game went on they dwindled to 20-30 minute waits to get into WSG at 35 or something. Maybe it was just my server. You could however just pick up the game, do a quest before work, come back and continue. This was nice, but it made the game practically single player, why even play an MMO then. Instances REQUIRED a group, or you couldn't complete them. I'm not bashing WoW here, just stating it's not all that casual of a game. WAR on the other hand, which is heavily based off DAoC, Mythic's old greatest hit, is a much different story. RvR(pvp) was meaningful to each realm's status, giving the hardcore players reason to PvP, but RvR was also available about an hour or two into playing the game. PvP was much more readily available in DAoC then it ever was in WoW, and gave players just as much a casual experience, if not more. Also, there wasn't waiting times or anything discouraging. DAoC had leveling that was in the sweet zone. Getting to 50 wasn't a hassle, I found myself tiring out and having to take a break at about lvl 50ish on my first WoW toon, because I couldn't take how long and boring the leveling was. I'm sure WAR will be in the same sweet spot where people can play "just enough" to get by and experience everything. Basically I'm saying that pros and cons aside, WAR will by no means be a pushover in the casual/family/ordinary player crowd. Also, I've heard/read the graphical requirements will be similarly low-end as WoW was when it first came out, another casual key point.
currently playing: FFXI
Waiting for FFXIV to be updated more.
WoW finally has a contender from what I am seeing.
The saying is...
If WoW = McDonalds (may have better fries) and AoC = Steak.. I am going to assume <imo> that Warhammer Online is definetly going to be the Burger King (got better burgers) of the bunch or pick your other favorite fast food joint.
WAR is not Wow and never will be.
As for its commercial success, it can reach the 1 million sold copies status IF the things are polished enough in 2 months time. The buyers will be the same who tried AoC and the people wanting to have something else than Wow after 3 years.
But 4 things hamper WAR's initial success (with AoC it stopped at the 700K point because of complete lack of polishment).
1. RvR play is very limited in play. DAoC showed this. After 3 months reconquering what you already conquered 10 times is lame. The progress of guilds and continued play needs to be through PVE and PvP . Pure PvP alone is not enough to a PAY to PLAY game. Else you can join the free TF2.
2. Because of the WAR casual play type (hardly any group forming) and "you just jump in" kinda thing, it will be VERY difficult to maintain guildies. The "jump in" system will hamper defense.... "we loose ... I leave" ... kinda thing and very little coordination will be possible.
The die hard guilds will be there but because of the lack of serious end game PVE content, the goal will always be the RvR system which will be too repetitive for most players after a while. (I guess 3 months end game play)
3. Personal gear progression is still the only driving force for indiviual MMO players. Hence why Wow is a success. So I hope for Mythic they didn't exclude it, because it is the MAIN driving force to "freeform" playing styles. Wow has a second driving force and that's "guild progression" through difficult PVE content through raids. This raid aspect is completely lacking in the end game of WAR and so will hamper long term interest. Interesting will be what Mythic did in the crafting department.
4. To me the MOST important factor is that PvP fights in WAR are far too slow and static as shown in every video available on the web. A LOT of Wow PvP players are interested.... but they will have the shock of their lives when they will be in these PvP fights and see the combat is not only 1/3 of the speeds they are used to and far from exciting. The "new" and "first impressions" will wear off very soon after the first playing days (just like the "new" combat of Conan did btw). Oh there will be very much "ecxited posts" no doubt about that, but the fights will very soon be compared to the market standard after the initial scream of "wow". A PvP game based on lame PvP fights isn't a good idea.
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Conclusion: Pure RvR already died with the demise of DAoC 3 to 4 years ago. A game based purely on RvR - without hi end raiding content - doesn't have a very long term appeal - by lack of choices.
WAR could do very well with 500K to even 750 K subscribers in its first two months, but their problem will be to keep up the sales of NEW users because the attrition rates after 3/4 months will be high. It could very well be under these figures if they don't do anything anymore on the speed and action of the dull PvP fighting animations and the end game coordinated Raid content.
Why oh why does every MMORPG's - launched these past 2 years - have characters with a 'stick in their ass" and walk like a moonrunner.
No actually before WoW came out the majority of hardcore MMO fans said that Wow would fail and that EQ2 would dominate big time.
Games I've played/tried out:WAR, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, AoC, EQ1, EQ2, WoW, Vangaurd, FFXI, D&DO, Lineage 2, Saga Of Ryzom, EvE Online, DAoC, Guild Wars,Star Wars Galaxies, Hell Gate London, Auto Assault, Grando Espada ( AKA SoTNW ), Archlord, CoV/H, Star Trek Online, APB, Champions Online, FFXIV, Rift Online, GW2.
Game(s) I Am Currently Playing:
GW2 (+LoL and BF3)
Welcome our resident troll and WoW fanboi in panic mode (hint: check his post history). Maybe you get a clue and learn a bit about WAR before making idiot of yourself? I want want to troll some game, just learn a bit about this game or people will think that you are just stupid (or maybe you are?).
You know what is funny? You tried look like a smart person. But you just showed you have no idea about WAR and now look like total WoW fanboi and idiot.
Who cares ?
Just give us a good, grindless MMO. One that has good matching mechanism in PVP + a way of progression both personal and guild, it also have to relate to skill rather than grind, and we will be happy.
We also need a good tool for guild/clan/team finding, and one for selling stuff.
But again, it feels like you are thinking like a gamer and not like joe average.
The average player doesn't sit there thinkikng of it being gear centric, or RvR or anything like that.
And no, WoW is not gear centric. I know that will raise eyebrows but hear me out.
The average person who plays wow just gets together with family and friends and just plays. That's it. They dont' care about awesome gear and keeping up with raids or anything like that. They are average people who just sign in, do some quests have some fun, get whatever gear they get. Some might try for more but they are not bitching and complaining about gear as it really doesn't matter.
I have yet to meet a casual, family minded WoW player who is concerend about such things.
It's only when players start signing into the idea that they have to pvp, have to raid, have to keep up with the Joneses that WoW starts getting a bit more intense.
I will again state that the average player (read: average person who also plays wow) will not really care so much about war. Though one doesn't have to pvp in War the game will appeal more to pvp players and players who are interested in the warhammer universe.
However, the teenage girls, fathers, Mom's, the woman who works in my office, the woman who works in our CA office, etc, will not be concerned about Warhammer.
To add, I have a WoW account and I also just sign in for short periods of time to do some quests, explore, etc. I am not concerned about gear, lvls, or any such things.
If you really think the truly casual still dont want the gear your nuts. Its human nature to want the best. The family casual player wont admit to wanting the gear, but they do. You can NOT have such a large progression end game for JUST GEAR and say the game is not centered around gear. Why do you think blizzard is switching to all raids being both 10 man and 25 man? Its simple really. Its to get that casual family man into raiding. Eventually he will see how much easier the game gets with his 10man set and want to get into 25 man raids.
To the OP. Will WAR get steamrolled by people who hate everything (which there are a ton of here) if it gets 8 mil subs? Of course it will.
No ... I just analysed the game and I think I answered a lot of questions.
Have this thread saved and we will discus it in Jan 2009.
All what I said about Conan back in Feb this year was also right on spot BTW. The only fault was that I expected a 250-350 K subscription rate of AoC, I think I was 50% off. Within 6 months AoC will have hardly 150K left.
I just see too much coming I suppose...:)) Watch out for point 4 and point 2 in WAR.
That's why they have "living guilds" Vicksburg. No, that's not some monster that comes in your closet when you sleep at night. Just because there IS casual stuff doesn't mean there aren't groups. There ARE high-end PvE stuff that requires a group, and imagine if you could have five Karazhans going at once instead of one or two. Because they won't require 10 people, they only need 6. The other 'facts' are regurgitated crap that you've said all along, and well I learned to ignore it. Nice job on creativity with #2 though.
!
Edit: The driving factor in WAR won't be some digital pixelized item with made up numbers and letters. It'll be FUN. Probably an alien concept to you, but that's okay. Also, another one will be realm pride. Don't even say you played DAoC if you don't know what that is. This is a different game than WoW, face it. #3 fails too.
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A human and an Elf get captured by Skaven. The rat-men are getting ready to shoot the first hostage with Dwarf-made guns when he yells, "Earthquake!" The naturally nervous Skaven run and hide from the imaginary threat. He escapes. The Skaven regroup and bring out the Elf. Being very smart, the Elf has figured out what to do. When the Skaven get ready to shoot, the Elf, in order to scare them, yells, "Fire!"
Order of the White Border.
LOL. I dunno what to say except
WHAT A FANBOI!
I don't even know how to respond to some of the stuff because it's so offbase. Well it was a good laugh. You contradict yourself in so many areas is laffable.
Don't make me point them out. Umm if you want me to you can respond to this reply. If not refer to the parts in red and make your own inference.
WAR will never "=" WOW, because PVP will never "=" PVE. I know these boards are full of PVP'ers and I know there is definitely a market for PVP, but from my years of gaming experiences across several MMORPG's, I have discovered that PVP falls into the category of "be careful for what you ask for."
The reality is, most folks do not like extended PVP play; most players prefer PVE. PVP games have never competed well with PVE games and will always be dwarfed in comparsion, when comparing "apples to apples" like "WAR to WOW".
WAR should do well, very well, but mostly because of polish and because there will be a substantial amount of PVE content. The PVP, however, will get old very fast for many people.
거북이는 목을 내밀 때 안 움직입니다
This is all very true. I am anxiously awaiting WAR but I hope there is enough PvE content to finish aside from the PvP. PvP is great and all but after time with it being the only end game it would be no different than grinding raids.
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You wouldn't understand
So we agree: WAR is not WOW
)
Realm pride is a big word, but with casual "just jump in..." game play it will be too limited to be of any significance past a certain period.
Guild pride exists - but is direclty related to PVE progress in raids in Wow.
If it is applied to PvP only, the "fun" factor as you call it, comes to a halt very soon. How long is the game life of a twink in Wow ? (2 months 3 monts average).
See it this way: the progression of your character in the end game is crucial to keep you playing. FUN is in no way enough to keep PAYING to play. You have to feel the progression of your character. Else play TF2.
The only other progression is guild progression, but .... reconquering the already conquered is ... fun for how many months ?
So you DO need serious hi end raid content to keep the choices up and have the guild motivation on.
And if it IS true that gear progression will also be limited in WAR (which I do NOT believe btw), long term subs will be an illusion.
Exactly these elements killed DAoC. hence they tried to add PVE content, but that of course was too little too late.
So the burst of energy and playings of WAR will certainly be there in its first 10 weeks, but what the period after that?
Conquering the already conquered is too limited . A siege is a siege is a siege.
Where will the guilds be listing their progress? 1263 times sacked the enemy capital ?
Neverteless : the real pain point is point 4 I mentioned. With a GOOD and fast and frantic PvP fight mechanism the game could double its success easely. Pity you don't see this. It's so evident to everyone who sees the videos objectively.
WAR is an easy game to get into just like WoW ,and the computer specs much better then WoWs but at the same time people have probably upgraded their computers since WoWs release.If not for WoW itself but for other games so If WAR does get enough WoW players Im sure they will all be able to run WAR fine.
No such thing as luck, just believing in it is what makes it real to you and really...thats all you need.
Im on nobodies' side but my own.